Autocracy in America – The Negotiator

The Atlantic, September 12, 2025
Host: Garry Kasparov
Guest: Jake Sullivan, former U.S. National Security Advisor

Episode Overview

In this incisive episode, Garry Kasparov sits down with Jake Sullivan, a top national security advisor under President Joe Biden, known for his pivotal role in shaping recent U.S. foreign policy. Despite past sharp disagreements, Kasparov and Sullivan join forces for an in-depth conversation about the threats facing American democracy—both foreign and domestic. The discussion traverses U.S. policy toward Russia, the enduring perils of American isolationism, authoritarian advances worldwide, and the fragile state of U.S. democratic institutions heading into the 2026 midterm elections.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Persistent Threat of Vladimir Putin

(03:04–05:52)

• Sullivan's Take on US-Russia Policy:
  The U.S. and its allies have failed to deter Putin’s growing aggression. Sullivan recounts his memo to Secretary Clinton in 2012 warning of escalating danger as Putin reclaimed power.
  • “Vladimir Putin has become an increasing menace to his neighbors, to the world, to his people. And neither the United States nor anyone else has been able to reverse that trend.” — Jake Sullivan, 03:45
• The “Reset” Policy Reflected:
  Sullivan clarifies that the infamous 2009 “reset button” moment with Russia was not his idea and critiques the limited effectiveness of such symbolic gestures.

2. Decision-Making on Arming Ukraine

(06:40–13:00)

• Weapons for Ukraine – Debates & Delays:
  Sullivan outlines internal disagreements in the Obama-Biden administration over arming Ukraine. He notes Vice President Biden supported lethal aid, but President Obama resisted.
  • “President Biden was very clear… the United States should step forward and supply that defensive assistance…” — Jake Sullivan, 07:00
• Analyzing Trump’s Russia Policy:
  Trump’s administration is characterized as soft on Putin, despite providing some arms to Ukraine, never levying tariffs on Russia unlike other nations.
  • “…at no point has he been prepared to take tough action against Putin's Russia. Even… [when] he did not impose tariffs on Russia. It is a very strange, consistent feature of his approach…” — Jake Sullivan, 07:38

3. Invasion of Ukraine: Warnings and Responses

(09:01–16:37)

• Timeline of Recognizing the Imminent Invasion:
  Early 2021 intelligence heightened U.S. concern, but Sullivan clarifies they only became convinced of invasion in Fall 2021.
• Weapons Transfers – Realities vs. Critiques:
  Sullivan defends the pace and volume of U.S. military aid, addressing criticisms about delay with specific systems (Abrams tanks, F16s, ATACMS).
  • “Every single dollar Congress gave us, we spent on time and in full to push weapons into Ukraine.” — Jake Sullivan, 13:00
• Deterrence, Sanctions, and Russia’s Nuclear Threats:
  Intelligence estimated a 50/50 chance Russia would use tactical nukes if its forces collapsed—a risk that heavily influenced U.S. decisions.
  • “If there was a catastrophic collapse of Russian lines, it was a coin flip as to whether Russia would use tactical nuclear weapons…” — Jake Sullivan, 16:53

4. Sanctions, Oil, and Global Coordination

(17:44–20:59)

• Leveraging Russia’s Economic Weakness:
  Sullivan advocates squeezing Russian oil revenues, now more feasible as oil markets slacken.
• Balancing Acts:
  The U.S. held back on the harshest oil sanctions to avoid spiking American gas prices, risking domestic support for Ukraine aid.
  • “…the administration's judgment was that [spiking gas prices] would crater U.S. support for the war.” — Jake Sullivan, 19:04

5. American Isolationism and Global Alliances

(22:12–25:30)

• Dangers of True Isolationism:
  Sullivan warns against an “America Alone” policy, arguing for investment in U.S. strength and prudent global engagement to avert war.
  • “…it does require an active, engaged America, not an isolated America, not this kind of America alone America…” — Jake Sullivan, 22:38
• Authoritarian Alliances (“Dictators, Inc.”):
  The rising unity among authoritarian leaders, led by Xi Jinping, is seen as partly a reaction to U.S. efforts to rally democratic alliances.
  • “…She looks at all of that and says, I need an answer to this to a certain extent…if we stick with our strategy…we have the winning hand.” — Jake Sullivan, 24:13

6. Threats to American Democracy from Within

(27:31–31:41)

• Internal Deterioration as the Main Threat:
  Sullivan asserts the United States itself now poses the greatest risk to its own security, through the erosion of the rule of law and democratic norms.
  • “We ourselves are our greatest threat. That is us turning on the things that made our country great.” — Jake Sullivan, 27:47
• 2026 Midterm Election Fears:
  Kasparov expresses fears of election subversion; Sullivan urges broad, bipartisan pushback to defend fair elections, warning that Republican silence enables backsliding.
  • “It is imperative on everyone…to speak out on the essential principle of a free and fair election in 2026…” — Jake Sullivan, 29:14

7. The Democratic Party, Optimism, and Leadership

(30:21–31:41)

• Democratic Party Preparedness:
  Sullivan professes uncertainty but believes the tools exist within both the Democratic Party and wider pro-democracy coalitions if they are mobilized.
  • “We do. We just need to make sure that we exercise it effectively in pushing back against the…Democratic backsliding…” — Jake Sullivan, 30:26
• On Optimism:
  Sullivan invokes his Irish heritage—a “sense of tragedy that sustains us through temporary periods of joy”—but ultimately trusts the American people not to tolerate a dismantling of democracy.

8. A Vision for America's Role Post-2028

(31:41–38:41)

• Restoring American Strength and Leadership:
  Sullivan outlines priority reforms: rebuild industrial capacity, overhaul defense industry, restore the innovation ecosystem, revive alliances, and lead on transnational issues (climate, AI risk, pandemic preparedness).
  • “If the United States is tending to the sources of its own strength at home, we are going to be a very powerful nation in the world.” — Jake Sullivan, 32:17
• Institutional Reform:
  Sullivan supports modernization of both the UN and NATO, emphasizing technological, industrial, and holistic responses to hybrid threats.
• Security Guarantees:
  On NATO Article 5 and Baltic security, Sullivan asserts guarantees must be credible and operational, not merely rhetorical.

9. Common Ground in Defense of Democracy

(38:41–39:10)

• The episode closes with calls for unity—even across sharp political divides—in defense of core democratic values.
  • “...people who find themselves at odds with one another politically should still find common ground in supporting the values that will preserve our democracy.” — Gary Kasparov, 38:41

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On U.S. Policy toward Putin:
  “Neither the United States nor anyone else has been able to reverse that trend.” — Jake Sullivan, 03:45
• On Internal Threats to Democracy:
  “We ourselves are our greatest threat.” — Jake Sullivan, 27:47
• On Defending Elections:
  “It is imperative...to speak out on the essential principle of a free and fair election in 2026 and to call out every step that is taken that goes in the wrong direction.” — Jake Sullivan, 29:14
• On Optimism:
  “It is said of Irish people that we have an abiding sense of tragedy that sustains us through temporary periods of joy.” — Jake Sullivan, 31:00

Important Timestamps

• 03:04 – Introduction of Jake Sullivan and framing of U.S. policy failures toward Russia
• 06:40 – Discussion of Obama/Biden approach to arming Ukraine
• 09:01 – Sullivan on why U.S. believed invasion wasn't inevitable until late 2021
• 13:00 – Debate over criticisms of U.S. military aid speed and substance
• 16:53 – U.S. intelligence’s assessment of Russian nuclear risk
• 19:04 – Rationale for withholding full sanctions on Russian oil
• 22:38 – Sullivan defines "isolationism" and dangers for America
• 27:47 – Sullivan names domestic decay as the number one security threat
• 29:14 – Urgency of protecting free and fair elections
• 31:00 – Sullivan’s “abiding sense of tragedy” quote about American democracy
• 32:17 – Sullivan lays out his vision for America’s leadership and renewal
• 36:57 – Affirms Ukraine’s NATO future
• 38:41 – Call for unity across political lines to defend democracy

Closing Reflection

The Negotiator brings two erstwhile adversaries together in a sobering, deeply informed discussion that is as much about the state of America's democracy as it is about foreign policy. Listeners gain rare insight into the dilemmas and pressures at the highest echelons of U.S. policymaking, and the existential struggle to defend democratic norms at home. Through forthright, sometimes blunt exchanges, both Kasparov and Sullivan model the very coalition-building they prescribe as America faces another perilous crossroads.