Podcast Summary: "The Politician"

Podcast: Autocracy in America (The Atlantic)
Date: August 22, 2025
Host: Garry Kasparov
Guest: Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, former Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament and chess grandmaster

Episode Overview

This episode explores the lived realities and evolving strategies of Lithuania, a frontline democracy, facing renewed threats from Russia. Garry Kasparov speaks with Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen about authoritarian pressures in the region, EU-NATO dynamics, and why Lithuania has become both a bulwark for Ukraine and a refuge for Russian dissidents. Chess as a metaphor for politics weaves through their analysis of how democracies can resist hybrid warfare and recalibrate their alliances in a world where American leadership is no longer certain.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

Chess and Politics: From Strategy to Survival

• Both Kasparov and Čmilytė-Nielsen share backgrounds as chess grandmasters turned politicians.
• Chess develops skills like focus, memory, and resilience—useful but not always directly transferrable to politics.
  • “Chess is a very honorable game... Politics is nothing but. The rules are constantly changing, the challenges are unknown, the situation is vague, and there are so many gray zones.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [04:24]
• Čmilytė-Nielsen credits her chess reputation for boosting credibility in political life.
  • “Having the reputation of a chess grandmaster helps... It makes your statements more credible, more solid.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [05:36]

Lithuania’s Post-Soviet Journey and Geopolitical Realities

• Lithuania’s independence and European identity run deep; its history of occupation and struggle shapes its foreign policy.
  • “Almost 2 million people held hands together in the Baltic way... showing that we strive to be independent nations.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [08:33]
• The threat from Russia remains pronounced, especially given Lithuania’s proximity to Belarus, now under Putin’s influence.
• NATO membership continues to be vital for the Baltic states’ security; non-members face heightened risk—e.g., Moldova, Georgia.
  • “No country where there is an unresolved so-called military conflict can join NATO. That’s the recipe Russia has been using.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [10:48]
• Russia’s overarching goal is to “dismantle NATO” and challenge the democratic West.

Hybrid Warfare and Defensive Responses

• Russia employs hybrid tactics: propaganda, disinformation, and weaponized migration.
  • “Hybrid is different. It’s operating in the gray zone, creating distrust in societies, creating a feeling of insecurity and planting narratives.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [13:31]
• In 2021, Belarus (under Lukashenko) orchestrated a migrant crisis at Lithuanian and Polish borders, interpreted as a Russian-backed destabilization effort.
• Lithuanian society is “quite good at recognizing” propaganda, in part due to its living historical memory of occupation and resilience.

European and Transatlantic Responses to Russia’s War in Ukraine

• Europe, in Čmilytė-Nielsen’s view, has not acted forcefully or swiftly enough in supporting Ukraine relative to its resources.
  • “Europe could without much difficulty outproduce Russia militarily... but because of different reasons, that does not happen.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [17:02]
• Recent positive shifts include Germany’s deployment of troops to Lithuania and strengthening NATO’s eastern flank.
• The U.S. is increasingly seen as unreliable; European nations must be prepared to “stand up very clearly” and lead on defense.
  • “If Europe does not act more forcefully, it will reinforce the view—first of all by Putin—that Europe is weak... and that invites aggression.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [18:06]

America’s Changing Role and European Self-Reliance

• Eastern Europe has historically viewed the U.S. as “a beacon of hope.”
• U.S. administrations tend to begin by seeking dialogue with Putin, only to become frustrated and realize “nothing has changed.”
  • “[American leaders] start off with trying to make friends with Putin... but towards the end, they decide that was not a good idea—a lot of precious time has been lost.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [22:16]
• There is growing frustration at American equivocation and the need to constantly justify obvious facts about Russian aggression.
  • “It’s frustrating... imagine how much more frustrating it is for Ukrainians.”
    —Garry Kasparov [24:19]
• The risk is real that the U.S. might eventually leave NATO; thus, Europe is preparing for greater defense independence.
• Lithuania and other Baltic nations have withdrawn from the global landmine ban, signaling seriousness about border defense.
  • “We will both produce and mine our borders... a very defensive step.”
    —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [27:44]
• Nuclear deterrence, once taboo, is now openly discussed as an option—e.g., the possibility of a “French nuclear umbrella” or Poland’s interest.

The Stakes of American Withdrawal

• A more inward-focused America increases global risk and instability.
  • “When America walks away, the world becomes a more dangerous place.”
    —Garry Kasparov [32:49]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Chess is a very honorable game... Politics is something that overall matters more, but it's much more tricky.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [04:19]
• “Baltic countries have been targets of propaganda war for years now. But with our historic memory, it's not easy to make us believe some of the narratives they try to plant.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [14:27]
• “Europe can and should do more. It is time for Europe to stand up very clearly as America takes a much more transactional role.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [18:41]
• “There's a war going on in Europe... Europe has to do its utmost to help Ukraine and prevent this war from expanding further in Europe.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [24:55]
• “For us in Lithuania, it is crucial to show we are good allies... We do our part, and maybe even do more than we are expected.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [30:12]
• “When America walks away, the world becomes more dangerous place.”
  —Garry Kasparov [32:49]
• “Propaganda is so clearly dumb sometimes—it is so clearly a very defensive step; you mine your border in order not to be attacked from that side.”
  —Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen [28:19]

Key Timestamps

• [03:03] Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen on transitioning from chess to politics
• [04:19] Comparing the clarity of chess with the unpredictability of politics
• [10:13] NATO’s security guarantee and potential consequences if not for EU/NATO membership
• [13:24] Explanation and examples of hybrid warfare, including the 2021 migrant crisis
• [17:00] Critique of Europe's slow and insufficient military response to Russian aggression
• [21:50] Evolution of U.S. attitudes towards Russia across recent presidencies
• [22:16] Pattern of American administrations losing time “making friends” with Putin
• [27:32] Decision by Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Finland to exit the Ottawa landmine convention and fortify borders
• [28:44] Discussion of nuclear deterrence in Eastern Europe
• [32:49] The present and future risks of U.S. retreat from world leadership

Tone & Language

• The episode is candid and pragmatic—with a tone that balances clear-eyed realism about threats with optimism about democratic resilience.
• Both host and guest are direct, often analytical, and occasionally wry.

Conclusion

This episode provides an intimate view of how Eastern European democracies, led by experienced figures like Čmilytė-Nielsen, interpret and adapt to growing authoritarian pressure. It highlights the urgent need for European agency, cautioning against complacency as American security guarantees become less reliable. Lithuania’s example is presented not just as regional history, but as a lesson for the wider democratic world on resilience, proactive self-defense, and the irreplaceable value of robust alliances.