Podcast Summary: Autocracy in America – “The Warning”

Host: Garry Kasparov
Guest: Michael McFaul (former US Ambassador to Russia, Stanford Professor)
Date: September 23, 2025

Episode Overview

This special episode of "Autocracy in America" tackles the alarming American shift toward authoritarian tactics, drawing direct parallels to the rise of autocracy in Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Host Garry Kasparov and guest Michael McFaul, a leading Russia expert, examine the warning signs within US democracy, recount lessons from Russia, and debate how democratic societies can resist and renew themselves in the face of creeping illiberalism.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Parallels Between Russia and Current US Political Climate

• Alarm Bells:
  "[Alarm bells] are ringing everywhere. The similarities between what is happening today in America and what I witnessed in Vladimir Putin's Russia are frightening." – Garry Kasparov (00:53)
• Creation of oligarchies, one-party systems, and the targeting of opposition are identified as universal tactics in the early stages of authoritarian regimes.

2. Historical Background: US Policy Toward Russia

• 1990s “Bet” on Democracy:
  After the Soviet collapse, the West – including McFaul – tried to nurture democracy in Russia, a project ultimately “failed” due to insufficient hedging against Russian backsliding (04:29).
• The “Reset” Policy:
  McFaul played a central (if not "architectural") role in Obama’s strategy to re-engage Russia, blending pragmatic engagement on security (e.g., New START nuclear treaty) with support for civil society (05:05–07:10).

3. Dual-Track Diplomacy and US Engagement with Russian Civil Society

• Engaging Opposition:
  Obama met with opposition leaders (including Kasparov) during Moscow visits, an approach seen as provocative by the Kremlin (07:10–09:50).
• Blaming the West for Domestic Unrest:
  The Kremlin accused the US of fomenting revolution during Russia's 2011–2012 election protests, though, as both note, "American participation in the protests was minimal" (10:09).

4. The Consolidation of Russian Autocracy

• Economic Deals and Media Control:
  Putin placated oligarchs with tax cuts and business incentives while swiftly seizing control of the media (15:46–17:56).

  "He brought in liberal reformers...cut taxes, which oligarchs welcomed. At the same time, he went after media very aggressively." – Michael McFaul (17:56)

• Turning Points:

  • The crackdown on independent TV (NTV) using state-aligned business (Gazprom Media).
  • The use of crises (Beslan school attack) to justify the cancellation of elections.
  • The jailing of prominent business leaders, notably Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

• Missed Opportunity for Resistance:
  Russian elite’s passivity in early Putin years is lamented:

  "Maybe had we tried a little harder to stop him in those early years, we might have had more success. But by the time they tried to stop him, it was too late." – McFaul (19:28)

5. Authoritarian Tactics in the United States

• Recent US Events:

  • Promises of new scrutiny for nonprofits based on political views.
  • DOJ warnings about prosecuting hate speech.
  • Threats to revoke broadcast licenses of TV stations spreading disapproved messages.

  "For me, those were frightening parallels [to] what's happened in Russia. But many Americans believe that America was not Russia ... Do you think the threat to American democracy is existential?" – Kasparov (21:46)

• McFaul warns of the "salami tactic" creep:

  "Bit by bit by bit. And then you wake up one day and the most important element of a minimal democracy, free and fair elections, are no longer available. ... We're creeping towards that." – McFaul (23:00)

6. Can Institutions and Traditions Save Democracy?

• Weakness of Constitutions Alone:

  "The Constitution ... is just a piece of paper unless there are groups and people that actually try to enforce what's written down there. ... What will preserve our democracy ... will be resistance from small d Democrats in American society." – McFaul (23:50)

7. Autocracy and Democracy: Not Just National, but Ideological Struggles

• No Longer Geographic:
  Ideological battles now happen within societies, not just between blocs.

  • Illiberal nationalism (Putin's model) vs. liberal democracy (26:50–29:39).

  "That is not just between states, that is within states... the overlap of their illiberal nationalists with illiberal nationalists in Europe and the United States." – McFaul (28:12)

• Putinism’s surprising international (and American) success alarms both guest and host.

8. The 2026 Elections: A Crucial Test

• Both agree the upcoming midterms could be “the most fateful elections in our lifetime” (30:59).

• McFaul notes checks and balances still matter, and the contingencies of recent US elections give hope.

9. Cult of Personality and Elite Complicity

• Dangerous Loyalty Shifts:

  "When the tides turned and Putin was in control, they flipped and started praising him, idealizing him ... That reminds me of all those posters from the Soviet era." – McFaul (32:00)

  • McFaul sees similar patterns among US elites excusing or rationalizing Trump's illiberal actions.

10. A Cautiously Hopeful Outlook

• Renewal is Possible:

  • Tens of millions value democracy, and backlash against “overreach” is likely (34:04).
  • Historically, freedom has grown, and the "arc of history is pointing towards more freedom."
  • US ideas about democratic self-government remain more attractive globally than autocratic alternatives.

  “If we get back our confidence, ... in the long run, I’m quite optimistic even about the victory of democracy over autocracy in the world as well as here at home." – McFaul (34:50)

Memorable Quotes & Timestamps

• "Alarm bells are ringing everywhere. The similarities between what is happening today in America and what I witnessed in Vladimir Putin's Russia are frightening." – Kasparov (00:53)

• "We're creeping towards that [loss of free and fair elections]. So I think it's very serious, most certainly the most serious challenge to democracy in my lifetime." – McFaul (23:00)

• “The Constitution...is just a piece of paper unless there are groups and people that actually try to enforce what's written down there.” – McFaul (23:50)

• "That is not just between states, that is within states...the overlap of their illiberal nationalists with illiberal nationalists in Europe and the United States." – McFaul (28:12)

• "It's a struggle now. It is a struggle for democratic practices, democratic institutions, democratic values." – McFaul (29:44)

• "If we get back our confidence, ... in the long run, I’m quite optimistic even about the victory of democracy over autocracy in the world as well as here at home." – McFaul (34:50)

Notable Segments & Timestamps

[00:53] – Kasparov’s introduction and warning
[03:20] – McFaul describes the 1990s Western “bet” on Russian democracy
[07:10] – Obama’s dual-track diplomacy with Russia
[10:09] – Clarification of American role in the 2011–12 Russian protests
[15:46] – Early Putin years: tax cuts and media crackdowns
[21:46] – Explicit comparisons between Trump administration tactics and Putin’s moves
[23:00] – McFaul calls threat to American democracy “most serious in my lifetime”
[26:50] – The global, not just geographic, nature of today’s democracy-autocracy divide
[30:59] – Why the 2026 midterm election is existential
[34:04] – Closing optimism on America’s democratic renewal

Final Note

The episode issues a stark warning: the preconditions for autocracy are present in the US, and only active resistance by citizens—and not reliance on old traditions—can prevent democratic erosion. The conversation ends on a note of “cautious optimism,” highlighting America’s resources, history of renewal, and fundamental advantages in ideas.

Recommended for listeners seeking:

• Insights on how autocracy creeps in bit by bit
• Clear historical analogies to Russia’s recent past
• A roadmap for democratic vigilance and renewal in the United States