The aviation industry faces acute turmoil from the Iran war, now in its second month, driving jet fuel prices to double and threatening summer schedules. Ryanair CEO Michael OLeary warned on April 2 that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond late April, European airlines may cancel 5 to 10 percent of May through July flights due to shortages, with cuts dictated by airport fuel availability and just days notice from suppliers[1][6]. Nearly 19 million tons of jet fuel typically ships from the strait monthly, now disrupted[1].

Oil benchmarks surged Thursday, with Brent crude up 7.7 percent to 109 dollars per barrel and U.S. crude climbing 11.9 percent to 111.81 dollars, prompting U.S. carriers to hike fares 15 to 20 percent in the past month[7]. United Airlines raised first checked bag fees to 45 dollars prepaid or 50 dollars at airport, and second bags to 55 or 60 dollars, becoming the second major U.S. airline to do so this week amid CEO Scott Kirbys description of oil prices as creating lots of stress[7]. United also restricted MileagePlus earnings on basic economy flights bought from April 2[10].

Leaders are responding decisively. Ryanair urges passengers to book summer trips quickly despite risks[1]. SAS and United adapt via fare hikes and route tweaks to counter the 2025-2026 fuel crisis and geopolitical shocks[6]. SkyBus already ditched a domestic route[1].

Deals persist amid chaos: Pilatus Aircraft acquired Germanys Air Alliance on April 2, including its AOC and PC-24/PC-12 operations, while sister firm Unicair plans PC-24 fleet upgrades for air ambulances[2]. AirAsia X eyes Istanbul as a Europe hub[2]. IndiGo deepens ties with Delta, Air France-KLM, and Virgin Atlantic, eyeing SkyTeam membership and widebody growth[5]. Aviation Capital Group delivered a Boeing 737-8 MAX to Royal Air Maroc on March 31[3].

Private aviation booms with double-digit demand gains from airline disruptions, despite Middle East flight drops[8]. Compared to pre-war stability, this marks a sharp shift from steady growth to crisis mode, with no major regulatory changes but rising consumer caution on bookings. Supply chains strain globally, hitting Middle Eastern carriers hardest as an absolute disaster[11]. Word count: 348

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