Exponential View: Davos 2026 and the End of the Rules-Based Order

Host: Azeem Azhar
Date: January 29, 2026

Episode Overview

In this special episode, Azeem Azhar offers a series of live dispatches recorded over four days at the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting in Davos 2026. He brings listeners into the heart of the event, highlighting the geopolitical buzz surrounding Donald Trump’s arrival, Mark Carney’s provocative speech on sovereignty, and candid conversations about the real challenges and opportunities of AI adoption in the enterprise. Azeem tracks three main themes: the state and enterprise adoption of AI, the startup ecosystem, and the ongoing transition within the global energy sector.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Geopolitical Tensions & the Fracturing World Order

• Trump's Arrival & Global Tensions

  • The arrival of Donald Trump generated significant excitement and anxiety; unusual security and political presence signaled heightened geopolitical stakes.
  • “The geopolitics of it, shall we say, is a little bit frenetic and frantic.” (Azeem, 01:10)

• Sovereignty and End of the ‘Rules-Based Order’

  • Mark Carney’s speech asserted the traditional rules-based order was over, replaced by a world defined by new alliances and ruptures rather than smooth transitions.
  • European leaders echoed this, reflecting a sense of rupture and need to prepare for a fundamentally different landscape.
  • "The rules based order is over. It's not a smooth transition, it is a rupture and people need to live up to it." (Azeem, 05:30)
  • Quotes from the Belgian Prime Minister: "Europe has been a group of happy vassals and now runs a risk of being unwilling slaves." (Azeem paraphrasing, 06:07)

• Weaponized Interdependence and Technological Sovereignty

  • Concerns over overdependence on US-based technology infrastructures, particularly regarding cloud and AI services.
  • Emphasis that sovereignty requires controlling technological infrastructure beyond high-level applications: “Europe is dependent essentially on US software... even things like the Microsoft sovereign cloud are really pabulant because Microsoft is still jurisdictioned in the US.” (Azeem, 06:41)
  • Chips remain a specific vulnerability for Europe's sovereignty.

• Practical Shifts in Global Relations

  • Noted steps like Denmark selling down US Treasuries and the acknowledgment by business and political leaders that the world is fragmenting at a practical level.
  • "We do still have this quite interrelated, interconnected world despite a move towards mercantilist policies." (Azeem, 11:17)

2. AI: From Hype to Practical Enterprise Reality

• State of AI at Davos

  • Many major AI company leaders in attendance; two anticipated IPOs (Anthropic and potentially OpenAI).
  • Corporate adoption is progressing but remains nascent: only around 7-9% of enterprises report significant success.
  • "We're still learning, we're still figuring it out, we're still rolling it out." (Azeem, 12:24)

• Enterprise Adoption Experiences

  • AI use is moving from theory to implementation, though most firms are still early in the journey.
  • Some “household name” companies are successfully using AI at the core of business operations, not just at the edges.
  • Migration from AI risk discussions towards concrete, strategic efforts to integrate AI into workflows.

• Case Study: Hippocratic AI

  • Innovative startups highlighted, including Hippocratic AI, which uses open-source AI models for nurse-oriented healthcare, providing telecare via AI-managed phone calls.
  • Cost and autonomy, as well as control over technology, cited as benefits of open-source models.
  • "All of their models, their AI models were open source models so that they could maintain the control and manage the costs." (Azeem, 14:09)

3. Startup Ecosystem & Energy Transition

• Startups' Adaptation to Fragmented, Tech-Driven Environments

  • Vibrancy and optimism among startup founders and venture capitalists, especially in deep tech.
  • Startups show agility in responding to both technological and geopolitical transitions.

• AI and Energy Demands

  • Continued attention to the energy sector transition: the challenge of growing AI-driven energy demands, shifting grids from fossil to renewables, and integrating storage solutions.

Memorable Quotes & Moments

• On Current Geopolitics:

  • "It's a fantastic speech about what sovereignty needs to look like if you're a middle power, about the kind of alliances you're going to have to build." (On Mark Carney’s speech, 05:10)

• On Europe’s Technology Dependence:

  • “The entirety of Europe is dependent essentially on US software.” (05:50)

• On the Mood at Davos:

  • "It's hard to pick up the mood right now... there's just been a lot of running around. It's not particularly cold. There is of course, as we know, this huge USA house that is occupying quite a lot of space..." (Azeem, 03:20)

• On AI Hype vs. Reality:

  • “We've moved past those science fiction and fantasy discussions into more practical conversations.” (Azeem, 12:35)

Notable Timestamps

• 00:00–03:55 — Arrival and day one preview: key topics tracked at Davos (AI in enterprise, startups, energy).
• 03:55–09:31 — Day three: Trump's arrival, Carney's sovereignty speech, geopolitics, and the crumbling rules-based order.
• 09:31–13:50 — Final day: Synthesis of the week’s discussions (fragmentation, practical AI adoption), startup highlights, case study of Hippocratic AI.
• 13:50–15:36 — Reflections on the two dominant themes (geopolitical fragmentation and pragmatic AI) and Azeem’s closing thoughts.

Episode Takeaways & Reflection

• Fragmentation of World Order:
  The collapse of the post-1945 rules-based order is now tangible. The concept of sovereignty is center stage, complicated by the difficulty of attaining true technological independence and a global shift away from interdependence-as-usual.

• Shift from AI Hype to Implementation:
  Organizations are moving past AI sci-fi fears towards rolling out practical, core technology deployments. Most are in early stages, but some leaders are already seeing impact.

• Enduring Complexity & Interdependence:
  Even as nations seek autonomy, complex layers of economic and technological interdependence persist. The reality is more “spiky” and nuanced than polarized headlines suggest.

• Startup Innovation Remains Robust:
  Despite uncertainties, startups—especially in health tech and AI—offer optimism and evidence that exponential technologies are being operationalized for concrete problems.

Closing Thought:
“The rules based world order is now fracturing in real time with a growing sense that old geopolitical and economic assumptions no longer hold. And... AI's role in this—how it's quietly becoming operational in ways that really matter.” (Azeem, 15:36)