Airlines Cut Flights Amid Shutdown

Summary

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Balance of Power – “Airlines Cut Flights Amid Shutdown”

Bloomberg | November 7, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of Balance of Power, hosted by Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz, centers on escalating airline flight cuts across the United States due to the ongoing government shutdown, with an emphasis on the economic, logistical, and political implications. The show also covers President Trump’s meeting with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, U.S.-Hungary relations amid the Russia-Ukraine war, and the broader picture of economic anxiety and public sentiment following recent elections.

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Main Segments and Key Discussion Points

I. Trump-Orban White House Meeting & Geopolitics

(00:56–10:13)

• Backdrop: President Trump hosted Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban for a high-profile White House meeting. This caught attention for both its tone and implications for U.S.-European relations.

• Takeaways:

  • Orban is considered an outlier in the EU, maintaining close ties with Russia and resisting energy sanctions.
  • President Trump’s leverage over Orban and Hungary’s attempts to negotiate exemptions to Russian oil sanctions were highlighted.
  • The bilateral discussions included proposals for U.S. LNG imports and possible nuclear cooperation.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “President Trump does have some leverage there with, with Prime Minister Orban to make it clear that Orban should not be buying that Russian oil.”
    —William Taylor, former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine (03:29)
  • “Orban is, is one of two exceptions to that ... these other nations are hoping that President Trump will use the leverage that he has over Prime Minister Orban to force him to make the hard decisions.”
    —William Taylor (05:44)
  • “They were all a little embarrassed, I imagine, that one of theirs, that is one of the EU members, indeed a NATO member, is apparently sticking up for the aggression that the Russians have inflicted on Ukraine.”
    —William Taylor (05:44)

II. Energy Sanctions and Ukraine Aid

(06:43–10:13)

• Sanctions Impact: Recent data shows a drop in Russian crude exports, indicating sanctions are biting, but prospects for ending the war remain distant.

• Ukrainian Perspective: Ambassador Ola Stefanishnya shared updates on military aid negotiations, including Tomahawk missiles.

• Analysis: Economic pressure on Russia is significant, but long-term military and financial support for Ukraine remains critical.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “When that pressure results in an understanding by Putin that he's going to lose, he's going to lose this war... But you're also right, it's not just the economic pressure.”
    —William Taylor (07:22)
  • “The discussion is still ongoing, but we have a lot of delegations working here... and it's not only Tomahawks, the different types of other long range and short range missiles. This dialogue is ongoing and I can... only say that it's rather positive.”
    —Ambassador Ola Stefanishnya, Ukrainian ambassador to the U.S. (08:50–09:13)
  • “We got plenty of Tomahawks... this would help Ukraine do what President Trump has said he wants to do, which is to stop the war.”
    —William Taylor (09:30)

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III. U.S. Economic Anxiety and Political Consequences

(10:13–16:36)

• Panel Analysis: Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano discuss the political spectacle of Orban criticizing a former U.S. president in the White House, and the tone-deafness of dismissing voter concerns about affordability.

• Key Issue: Affordability and economic anxiety dominated voter concerns in recent elections, with consumer sentiment at historic lows according to the University of Michigan’s index.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “For him to try to sort of gaslight Americans and to say, ‘Well, you're all wrong, things are really good, you just don't know it,’... this was tone deaf to a degree that it would be very concerning if I was a Republican...”
    —Jeannie Shanzano (13:06)
  • “Think about it. Donald Trump was elected one year ago this week and the consumer sentiment index has dropped 30% during that period of time.”
    —Rick Davis (15:20)

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IV. Airlines Face Flight Cuts Amid Shutdown

(18:23–28:33)

a. Government Shutdown’s Immediate Impact on Airlines

(18:23–23:00)

• Flight Reductions: Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy warns cuts could reach 20% if the shutdown continues; 4% cuts began today, moving to 10% by next week, impacting 40 major airports domestically.

• On the Ground: Reporter Nora Melinda describes TSA and air traffic controllers working unpaid, leading to frustration among both workers and travelers but no catastrophic disruptions—so far.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “This is the 72nd worst day in terms of airline cancellations... so not a catastrophe here.”
    —Nora Melinda, live from Newark Airport (19:35)
  • “The majority of the disruption here is for regional and domestic flights... broad based frustration across the U.S. Consumers.”
    —Nora Melinda (20:36)

b. Chris Sununu Interview: Industry Response & Long-Term Risks

(21:48–28:33)

• Guest: Chris Sununu, former NH governor and new president & CEO of Airlines for America.

• Mandated Flight Cuts: Airlines are seeing mandated cancellations “for safety,” with the FAA taking action as staffing shortages reach critical thresholds.

• Economic Impact: Daily losses estimated at up to half a billion dollars across the wider economy; every day of shutdown increases workforce attrition and deters new air traffic controller recruits.

• Preparation and Contingency Planning:

  • Airlines were prepared for delays, but not for mandatory, widespread cancellations.
  • Average TSA wait times mostly manageable, thanks to proactive efforts.

• Long-term Concerns:

  • “If you looked at the number of individuals who have already retired in the past month, air traffic controllers—every day could be another dozen... There's about 10, 11,000 of them out there. We probably need 13,000 in the system.”
    —Chris Sununu (27:31)
  • The shutdown disrupts air traffic controller training and certification, jamming up the pipeline for months.
  • Societal and economic effects expected to ripple into holiday travel seasons and beyond.

• System Recovery:

  • The air travel system requires significant time to recover from large-scale disruptions; normal operations are not restored instantly when the government reopens.

• Notable Quotes:

  • “These cuts that are being mandated really are going to go into effect starting today, roll about 4% till till Monday, and then that scales up to 10% by next week... all because not for anything that the airlines have done... unfortunately, these are just the victims of bad politics.”
    —Chris Sununu (22:09–22:36)
  • “I don't like using the word disaster, but... as we hit Thanksgiving, the pressure... is going to be absolutely immense.”
    —Chris Sununu (25:42)
  • “Every time you walk through a TSA line, please say thank you to these folks. They have not been paid in over 30 days... but they keep coming to work... they're just at the tip of the spear of the victims on this one.”
    —Chris Sununu (26:20)

• Key Advice for Travelers:

  • “Don’t cancel your trip... The safety is not the concern, because that’s why we’re canceling flights. That’s why we’re slowing things down to ensure that safety... Anyone who is traveling, feel 100% safe and secure about the flights that they are taking.”
    —Chris Sununu (29:17)

c. Political Pressure & Prospects for Resolution

(28:33–31:44)

• Capitol Hill Activity: Sununu says there is movement toward resolution: “The last I heard... the Senate is going to be here through the weekend working.”
• Message: All political leaders are urged to support any viable bill to reopen the government, emphasizing the broad national consequences if airline disruption continues.

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Notable Quotes – Quick Reference

• “President Trump does have some leverage ... to make it clear that Orban should not be buying that Russian oil.”
  —William Taylor (03:29)
• “For him to try to sort of gaslight Americans and to say ... ‘things are really good, you just don't know it’ ... this was tone deaf to a degree that it would be very concerning if I was a Republican...”
  —Jeannie Shanzano (13:06)
• “Think about it. Donald Trump was elected ... and the consumer sentiment index has dropped 30% during that period of time.”
  —Rick Davis (15:20)
• “All because ... not for anything that the airlines have done ... unfortunately, these are just the victims of bad politics.”
  —Chris Sununu (22:09)
• “Every time you walk through a TSA line, please say thank you to these folks. They have not been paid in over 30 days ... but they keep coming to work.”
  —Chris Sununu (26:20)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & White House Meeting Analysis: 00:56 – 10:13
• Ukraine, Sanctions, & Tomahawk Missiles: 06:43 – 10:13
• Political Panel (Davis & Shanzano): 10:13 – 16:36
• Consumer Sentiment, Flight Cuts News: 14:25 – 18:23
• On-the-Ground at Newark Airport: 18:55 – 21:48
• Chris Sununu Interview (Industry Response): 21:48 – 31:44

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Memorable Moments & Tone

The hosts and guests maintain an analytical yet conversational tone, mixing political insight with humor and real-time market/economic updates. The frustration of workers, travelers, and the airline industry is palpable, and the discussion makes clear that the government shutdown’s real-world impact is both immediate and potentially long-lasting.

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Summary

This episode delivers a multifaceted view of how high-level geopolitics, domestic economic anxieties, and the mechanics of government intersect at a moment of crisis. The most urgent, tangible effect—airlines being forced to cut flights due to government dysfunction—serves as both metaphor and practical alarm bell. The panel’s message: politics has consequences, and the longer the shutdown drags on, the greater the disruption across the American economy and society.

Transcript

[A]

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[B]

Okay, there you have it. The press being escorted the Cabinet Room after a whirlwind conversation with President Trump and Prime Minister Viktor Orban. We didn't know until right before that began if press would be allowed in the room and it I don't know if I should use the word devolves, but into a back and forth that required the press secretary to come in. The president called Caroline Levitt from another room in the White House to chastise reporters for suggesting that the president was not acknowledging affordability. This is something we've talked about a lot this week, of course, coming off the election results on Tuesday, we're going to talk about it quite a bit more here as well, including geopolitics. He's there to talk about the war in Ukraine and of course, energy trade with Viktor Orban, which we're going to be discussing in just a moment with former ambassador to Ukraine William Taylor. Thanks for joining us. If you're just getting into the cycle here on balance of power, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Tyler Kendall as we bring you politics from the nation's capital and connect the dots with what's happening today on Wall Street. Tyler, pretty remarkable visit there. The old saying about politics stopping at the water's edge might need to be updated to hear the prime minister of Hungary sit in the Cabinet Room at the White House and denigrate the former president. The former administration was pretty remarkable, right?

[C]

And we know that these two leaders have a very warm relationship. Don't even think we have to say relatively warm. We know that they have been two allies, that the Hungarian prime minister did support President Trump when he was then candidate Trump, and it didn't seem like his reelection was going to happen. So these two have history here. And of course, the pivotal part of this meeting is that Hungary is trying to use that relationship and get an exemption when it comes to these Russian sanctions and to these US Sanctions on Russian oil. Hungary, of course, a major importer. About 90% of their crude imports come from Moscow.

[B]

I mentioned William Taylor, just the voice that we want for a day like this, former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine with us live on Bloomberg TV and radio. Mr. Ambassador, thank you for joining us. Some of the language that we heard in the room today was striking. The president saying, I stick up for Viktor Orban. Not a lot of people do because in many ways they are jealous. Viktor Orban speaking to the previous administration, saying after you're leaving president, everything was basically broke, ruined and canceled. How important is this relationship for the United States reputation abroad?

[D]

Well, it's the right question, Joe. Viktor Orban is the outlier in Europe. He supports, by and large, President Putin and has been not shy about seeking approval of and friendship with and cooperation with President Putin, who is, as you pointed out over and over invading and has invaded for three and a half years, Ukraine. So President Trump does have some leverage there with, with Prime Minister Orban to make it clear that Orban should not be buying that Russian oil. And so we will see the answer to your question after they've had this meeting as to whether or not Orban can get exemptions from the sanctions that President Trump has put on Russian oil.

[C]

Well, let's talk a little bit more about that because we have reporting that Hungary's prime minister is going to float some energy deals to the president when it comes to importing more US lng, when it comes to putting up nuclear reactors. What does the diplomatic effort look like to wean Hungary off of Russian energy imports? What has to be done for a solution down the road to take place so that they're no longer bringing in those barrels from Moscow?

[D]

Well, Tyler, we know that that's possible. The rest of Europe has done that at great expense. I mean, this is not easy to go down from relying on Russian oil to almost weaned, as you say, from Russian oil. So it can be done. The Hungarians do get a lot of oil from pipelines from Russia, but there's another pipeline that doesn't go from, that doesn't come from Russia that they can use. So it is, it is possible and it will take, it'll take will, it'll take a decision by the Hungarians to cut themselves off from that oil. And President Trump has the leverage to get them to do that.

[B]

Mr. Ambassador, what was France thinking? What was Germany thinking? What was the UK Thinking? Watching this conversation?

[D]

They were all a little embarrassed, I imagine, that one of theirs, that is one of the EU members, indeed a NATO member, is apparently sticking up for the aggression that the Russians have inflicted on Ukraine. So the rest of Europe is almost unanimous in its determination to wean itself from Russian energy and has done that amazingly successful. Orban is, is one of two exceptions to that. And so these other nations are hoping that President Trump will use the leverage that he has over Prime Minister Orban to force him to make the hard decisions. And then, yes, these other energy deals between Hungary, the United States can take place, but they should take place after Hungary weans itself from Russian oil.

[C]

We have data that shows that the average of Russia's crude exports for the four weeks ending on November 2nd, so essentially the last month or so slumped by the most since January of 2024. So it would appear that these sanctions are causing a squeeze when it comes to Russian energy exports. But how should we really be quantifying progress when it comes to a potential solution to end the ongoing war? Are statistics like that enough? When you hear President Trump saying, it seems like there could be an end in the, quote, not so distant future, but we really haven't gotten any indications that there's been progress on the negotiations.

[D]

Front, and there probably won't be Tyler on negotiations front. What there could be, though, as what you've indicated, that is the pressure on Putin and the reduction of the revenues that he gets from selling oil and gas, some to Hungary, but more to India and China. When that pressure results in an understanding by Putin that he's going to lose, he's going to lose this war. But you're also right, it's not just the economic pressure. It's going to, in addition to that economic pressure, which is important and as you say, is already having an effect reducing those revenues. But in addition to that, Putin has to understand that the Americans and the Europeans are going to continue to provide the Ukrainians with the weapons and the finance to allow them to keep going longer than he can, longer than Putin can. Putin is going to realize once that happens, that the Americans and Europeans are going to provide Ukraine with the weapons and the finance to enable them to outlast him. At that point, Putin stops the war.

[B]

We asked the Ukrainian ambassador to the US Specifically about Tomahawk cruise missiles when she joined us last evening. Ambassador Ola Stefanishnya told us, knowing that the DoD had approved this and the President is considering the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles, that they were actually in talks. There might be some progress here. Here's what she told us.

[E]

The discussion is still ongoing, but we have a lot of delegations working here, including Ukraine, to scale up the available financial resources to procure more military capabilities from us. And it's not only Tomagaqs, the different types of other long range and short range missiles. This dialogue is ongoing and I can.

[C]

Only say that it's rather positive.

[B]

Positive negotiations ongoing. That made news and it was picked up by a lot of news organizations. Ambassador, because the White House had told us that there were no talks underway. Do you think Ukraine will get Tomahawk missiles?

[D]

I think they will. I think sooner or later will. As you just indicated, the Pentagon says we got plenty. We got plenty of Tomahawks. We've been making Tomahawks since the late 70s and deploy them since the 80s. And so there are thousands around. And so that can be. And that's what the Pentagon said. The Pentagon said you don't have to worry about stockpiles because other people were saying we don't have enough. We have plenty. And this would be a big boon. This would be, this would help Ukraine do what President Trump has said he wants to do, which is to stop the war. This is an indication that the Ukrainians would be able to strike deep into Russia to stop the war. So, yes, I think this is eventually coming.

[C]

All right, William Taylor, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, we thank you so much for joining us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio today. And to extend the conversation, we want to bring in our political panel, Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital and a Bloomberg Politics contributor alongside another Bloomberg Politics contributor, Jeannie Shanzano, Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe center, here with us today. Rick, I want to start with you and just get your overview of how we just saw this meeting play out in the Cabinet Room at the White House. And your thoughts on President Trump and his relatively warm relationship with the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orban?

[F]

Yeah, Tyler has been already discussed. They have a long term relationship that goes back for quite some time and not just on a state to state basis, very politically simpatico. Viktor Orban has participated in a lot of events hosted by conservative groups in the United States, both here and in his own country. So there is a warm relationship that exists there. Highly criticized by the Democrats, Viktor Orban being seen as much more authoritarian than others in Europe. And of course, we know that Donald Trump doesn't hold that against other world leaders in his dealings. So, yeah, this is a, this is a bit of a rally of like minded individuals. But I must say I was impressed by the fact that Donald Trump really didn't take the bait on a number of issues related to the Ukraine. Sure, he did his usual song and dance about how the war would have never happened and Biden screwed it up. And echoed by Viktor Orban in an incredible exchange where it defied all sensibilities. For a foreign head of state to criticize a former president, I mean, pretty outrageous in the Cabinet room of the.

[B]

White House seemed outrageous. Jeannie. It was a Republican, you know, a Republican Senator, Arthur Vandenberg, who actually helped to create the United nations, who coined the phrase politics ends at the water's edge. This is some sort of mirrored version of this where the foreign actor has crossed the water to come into the White House, to Rick's point, into the Cabinet room to criticize a former president of the United States. He said, after you're leaving, President, everything was basically broke, ruined and canceled. Was this a moment for you, Jeannie?

[G]

My, how things have changed. Yes, absolutely it was. You know, it's enough to hear Donald Trump almost daily wanting to talk about Joe Biden and blame his own woes on Joe Biden, but then to have the leader of a foreign nation come over. But of course, Viktor Orban is no regular leader of a foreign nation. He is somebody who was here to visit Mar? A Lago during the campaign. He was somebody who spoke to cpac. So he has a political view. He is not shy about sharing that. And I think to me, what was so striking, in addition to the issues involving Ukraine, was how tone deaf this entire exercise was given what happened on Tuesday night for the president to describe affordability, which both polls before the election, the voters Tuesday night and the exit poll say is the major issue on voters mind as a con job. And for him to try to sort of gaslight Americans and to say, well, you're all wrong, things are really good, you just don't know it. Right. This is to me how tone deaf a president with really good political chops normally has become. And I think Donald Trump needs to stop going abroad, needs to get himself out into the United States, talk to voters who say exactly the opposite, including large percentages of his own voters who crossed the line in New York City, California, Virginia, New Jersey to vote for a Democrat on the issue of affordability. So to me, this was tone deaf to a degree that it would be very concerning if I was a Rep if I was a Republican who was going to be running in 26, facing voters who are angry and a president saying affordability is a con job.

[C]

Well, Jeannie, I'm glad that you brought up affordability because we want to hit on that as well, since it did really prevail in that conversation that we just saw play out in the Cabinet Room. Of course, a big part of this is how Americans are feeling about the economy and the government. We did just get a redhead on the terminal that the US transportation secretary, Sean Duffy, says that US flight cuts could reach 20% if the situation worsens. And we haven't seen any indication, Joe, at this point that we're getting closer to resolving this ongoing government shutdown. Rick, I want to pose this to you. I know that you watch US Consumer sentiment really closely. We got the preliminary readings for November today from the University of Michigan showing that consumer sentiment hitting your record low today amid the government shutdown, amid uncertainty around tariffs. How are you reading how Americans are currently reading this economy as we see really no end in sight at this point for the government to reopen.

[F]

I love Fridays when we can get the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. Tyler, thank you so much. It's the second best poll that is taken in politics. The first best was Tuesday when voters actually voted. And it mirrors very significantly what we see today in the preliminary estimates for November. And that is a significant decrease 6 and.2% on the consumer sentiment index, 30% down from a year ago. Think about it. Donald Trump was elected one year ago this week and the consumer sentiment index has dropped 30% during that period of time. Now, nobody should then be surprised to see the kind of election outcomes that occurred on Tuesday. And it's all the way across the board. I mean, there's they're significantly down from a year ago on the future sentiment of people. How's it going to be a year from now, their current situation down 11% in this 1:1 survey. This is one of the lowest levels the Michigan consumer sentiment has hit compared to even Joe Biden at the height of inflation. This is where people are. So when jot when Donald Trump starts talking about inflation and how horrible it was, he ought to think about like how people are feeling today because they're in the same position.

[G]

Hmm.

[B]

We should note that the comments on gas prices didn't completely add up either. We actually took a look around here and the when it comes to gas prices, Triple A still has the average above $3 a gallon and it's only about $0.10 different than it was one year ago. So as much as we would all love to be paying $2 a gallon, that didn't seem to actually jive with what we're seeing from Triple a and from GasBuddy. Great panel as always. Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, thank you so much for weighing in. And I hope you both have a great weekend here. I also hope you're not flying. We're going to talk about that coming up with Chris Sununu. How about that, Tyler? It could be 20%. Sean Duffy saying as much to Fox News this afternoon. When it comes to capacity cuts, they start today at 4% and people are already feeling the pain. Chris Sununu will join us next, speaking for the airline industry here on Bloomberg. Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. Mint is still $15 a month for premium wireless. And if you haven't made the switch yet, here are 15 reasons why you should. One, it's $15 a month. Two, seriously, it's $15 a month. Three, no big contracts. Four, I use it. Five, my mom uses it. Are you, are you playing me off? That's what's happening, right? Okay, give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront.

[C]

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[A]

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[B]

Not looking so hot today on Wall street with the volatility continuing here, although we have seen worse numbers and we're keeping our eyes on airline stocks as well. They've been bouncing around a little bit today. Not for the better as we see these capacity cuts take effect. Tyler, it made a redhead on the terminal when Sean Duffy said this could reach 20%. But there is no actual plan for that, right? That's depending on how long the government shutdown goes. And some people think it could end in the next week or so. But the fact is we'll be at a full on 10% cut by the middle of next week, right?

[G]

Exactly.

[C]

This is phased in for now. It started today with 4% cut. The transportation secretary saying it could go as high as 20%. Of course, this is at 40 airports around the country that we've been Watching very closely, not impacting international routes, but if you're flying anywhere domestically, you may get hit with a delay or a cancellation. Now at one of those airports, we do find our very own Nora Melinda, who's reporting live all day today on Bloomberg at Newark International Airport. Nora, can you just give us any more context today as we get this announcement from the transportation Secretary, Cuts could reach up to 20%. What are we seeing right now on the ground?

[H]

Well, Tyler, this remains to be be a fluid situation. Of course, we have really been hearing a lot about the fact that this government shutdown really weighing on TSA workers, air traffic controllers, especially given the fact that they've been unpaid since October 1st when the shutdown began. When we think about size and scope here, this is a 72nd worst day in terms of airline cancellations here since January 2024. So not a catastrophe here. Although there were a lot of fears of this potentially being the case. This is not the worst that we have seen. As we're speaking on the ground to individuals, workers here, they're saying this is not the first government shutdown that they've had to deal with. So we are still hearing a lot of TSA workers here at New York Newark Liberty Airport actually still reporting to work, coming here, serving consumers, serving the US Customer here despite the fact that they are not receiving a paycheck as of yet.

[B]

The 72nd worst day in just a couple of years. Nora, that that sounds like any old day or what? Are you talking to travelers? Are they just getting along with their business?

[H]

I mean some getting along with their business. But also we are speaking to some individuals, just truly disgruntled, frustrated. I spoke to a woman earlier, a plastic surgeon coming, trying to fly from EWR from Newark Liberty over to Barbados and actually seeing that her flight was canceled and rescheduled to jfk and it was an hour earlier. So she of course missed that flight as well. So she is frustrated, of course blaming this on the US Government shutdown. But we do know that the majority of the disruption here is for regional and domestic flights here, not necessarily international. But you are seeing a broad based frustration across the US Consumers.

[B]

Well, of course that sounds awful, but I don't think the plastic surgeon not making it to Bermuda is going to get into the president's stump speech here. Nora, thank you. You've been great today. Pull up the short straw to hang out at Newark airport for an entire day. We have a special voice for you here as we talk about this story. Let's get to the heart of the matter. Norma, Linda, thank you so much. The former governor of New Hampshire is with us, who is now one of the faces of the airline industry. And a couple of weeks ago, we had a great conversation about this with Chris Sununu, former Republican governor of New Hampshire, now the president of Airlines for America, president and CEO. What a time for you to start this job.

[E]

Are you sure you want to do this? I tell you, it's been great. I love working for the industry in that it is obviously a challenge. It's a challenge on a normal day. But I effectively work for the nine CEOs of the nine largest air carriers in America.

[B]

And they're trying to reopen the government.

[E]

Oh, yeah. Well, they're not trying to reopen the government.

[B]

They're trying to.

[E]

Crying oh, no, absolutely. And it's everything from being on the phones to, you know, talking to folks on Capitol Hill and letting them understand that, you know, what's happening, especially with this new mandate to cut back rolling up to 10% of flights. I mean, that's, that'll hit them alone about $100 million a day.

[C]

Right.

[E]

And then you look at the broader economic impact, which we estimate to be at least a quarter billion, if not, you know, close to maybe half a billion a day when you look at the hotel rooms and all the other things that go with travel.

[D]

Right.

[E]

So, so it has a huge economic impact, as you can see from those images right there. These, these cuts that are being mandated really are going to go into effect starting today, roll about 4% till till Monday, and then that scales up to 10% by next week, all because not for anything that the airlines have done or anything the American public has done. Unfortunately, these are just the victims of bad politics up on Capitol Hill.

[C]

Were the airlines prepared? Was there already a contingency plan in place and set into motion? Because we knew that this government shutdown was coming and that it wasn't looking likely like it was going to end anytime soon.

[E]

So the airlines are prepared. They have amazing teams. They know how to adjust. I got to say, as if you told me on day 38 that we were dealing with a few delays, as you could see from those. And I think the average TSA line today across the country was like 15 to 20 minutes. Some got up to 30 minutes, so it was actually wasn't that bad. Some as quick as two minutes if you're going through precheck. So both the airlines, I think, were prepared in terms of being able to move folks around. The. The mandated cancellations is different, right? Having delays. We've seen a lot of delays, but actually very few cancellations up until till this point. Now, the mandated cancellations being driven for safety. Right. There's real data that show that the pressure on the system is going to continue to build. Last weekend was some real tough days. Halloween night was really, really tough. That's going to continue to grow as the call outs both on the TSA and the air traffic controller side increase and in the demand builds as we get closer to Thanksgiving. So I think the FAA is being smart and saying, okay, we're not going to wait for this thing to come to a grinding halt. We're going to ask folks to proactively cancel a certain number of flights. The head of the faa, Brian Bedford, he's terrific. He's a former CEO of an airline. He totally understands what this impact means. He understands that it isn't just we, we canceled the flight. Managing crews from point A to point B knowing that folks could potentially be stranded because their first flight was fine, but the second leg is now canceled, moving those folks. And the big message is use your airlines apps to the American public. They're not going to cancel you last second. They're trying to do it as proactively as they can. This mandate really just came down in the last 24 hours, but it's so it's going to hit some folks hard. And I think the airlines are doing everything they can and really successfully so far in managing that customer service aspect. But, but it's tough. And it's all because a bunch of folks down the street here not too far from us keep saying no to, to a consumer.

[B]

Why you didn't want to serve in the Senate, as I remember, was this kind of stuff. But I, you know, I flew back and forth to New York this week. It took me hours to get up and hours to get back, but I actually felt safe in the process. And I will say, I mean, I really went out of my way to thank TSA workers for showing up. I can't thank air traffic controllers because they don't let me in the tower.

[E]

You can right now, but.

[B]

Yeah, well, thank you because, I mean, these are actually all patriots who are showing up to keep the country running. And that's really important. But you're also a politician. Well, you were, anyway. And I'm wondering how you see this moment in time because it might well be the air traffic control system that forces an end to this shutdown. Do you think in the next couple of weeks, everybody gets to the table here because you just painted a pretty ugly picture.

[E]

They absolutely have to, because the pressure on the air, the aviation system and the national airspace as we hit Thanksgiving is going to be absolutely immense. And I don't like using the word disaster, but I think the secretary is right. If it doesn't end probably in the next week or the next 10 days, there is a chance they have to ramp up beyond temperature.

[B]

Thanksgiving look like disasters. The word JD Vance used, complete gridlock.

[E]

Complete gridlock. Because the demand on the system is well beyond, you know, It'll hit about 3 million passengers a day. That forced cancellation and intended delays will hit really just historic proportions at that point. So this is already completely unprecedented.

[B]

Totally.

[E]

They didn't want to do it. There's a lot. I know there were some folks saying, well, where's the data? There's plenty of data. Just look at the number of call outs we have, look at the slowdowns we have. We had a situation in Burbank a month ago where they literally had nobody in the tower last. Right now, thank God they got creative in San Diego, stepped up and was helping land those planes. We had the same thing in Nashville and Memphis, stepped up and was helping land those planes. So everyone is pitching in. As you said. God bless these workers. Every time you walk through a TSA line, please say thank you to these folks. They have not been paid in over 30 days. You know what the average CSA worker, they're getting 35, 40,000 a year maybe. I don't think these are not very well paid individuals, but they keep coming to work, they keep doing the forced overtime because they know how important their job is for the national airspace. And they're, they're just at the tip of the spear of the victims on this one.

[C]

Well, one of the vulnerabilities of the air traffic system is that it doesn't actually take that many people calling out for us to see disruptions. This has long been an issue. We've spoken about it many times on this program. We like to talk about long term economic impacts, long term impacts to the workforce. Is there any concern among the airlines that the shutdown is going to have damaging impacts? Even once the government reopens, is it going to be hard to get air traffic controllers to work?

[E]

So a couple of things. If you looked at the number of individuals who have already retired in the past month, air traffic controllers, every day, it could be. Every day could be another dozen. Every single day this thing goes on because they're saying, look, I, you know, they just, they don't Want to be part of this, this frustration anymore in the system. Maybe they're taking the retirement, whatever it is now, God bless them. There's about 10, 11,000 of them out there. We probably need 13,000 in the system. Then you look at the number of people that are looking to come in, right? Maybe they were scheduled to come in to be part of the training programs for air traffic. We've seen those numbers decrease quite a bit. These, the government workers that need to certify all that. Those are government workers. Well, they're all furloughed.

[G]

Right.

[E]

Right now.

[B]

Right.

[E]

So now they can't do their job to get the back end of the pipeline to get people into those towers as fast. So that's really kind of jammed up. So every day that this goes on, you're disincentivizing people from entering the workforce. And it's a great job. They're wonderful jobs. They, we have great schools. This administration's put money with new technology all over the country for this. So the adverse effects, other than, you know, we have delays and a few cancellations to your point, on the long term, could be absolutely huge.

[D]

Huge.

[E]

And on the economic side, if I may, you're already seeing pullback from people booking flights. Airlines are tend to be a lead economic indicator as you go into holidays. That's where people spend, spend dollars first. And as those dollars get pulled back, they then get pulled back in your regular spends both regionally and nationally. So when I talk about the economic, the overall economic impact being somewhere in the quarter billion to a half a billion dollars a day, that's going to have repercussions for months, all the way through the holiday season, undoubtedly.

[B]

So.

[E]

And the system just doesn't come back on like a light.

[B]

Well, that's what I want to ask you, by the way. You can't get a seat on Amtrak right now, but how long does it take? We all know what residual delays are like, right? Maybe there's a big impact on the air traffic control system for like three hours. And it takes the next day for everyone around the country to get back on time.

[E]

If they come, if they come, if they could. Maybe they've gone on vacation sometime with family, who knows? So it isn't just a light switch. You'll, you'll, you'll actually need to see that data and make sure folks come in and it's anticipated. Usually it takes a day or two, but there is a little bit of a lag there. And then how close is that lag to that holiday weekend? And how much have people actually pulled back? And right now, because the airlines have so much flexibility for the customer, people aren't canceling just yet, nor should they. Nobody should cancel. The two big messages are, don't cancel your trip because you can wait right up until the end, really, before you cancel, if you had to do that. Secondly, it's safe. The safety is not the concern, because that's why we're canceling flights. That's why we're slowing things down to ensure that safety. So anyone who is traveling feel 100% safe and secure about the flights that they are taking. Think of it this way. No pilot would ever get in an airplane, you know, and take off if they thought it was safe. Right. That would be crazy. So, so, no, the system itself is safe. It is just in a bit of this inadvertent logjam. So it's frustrating. But you go back to your original question. I love the challenge. You know, I've managed everything from a COVID pandemic and now, you know, I said this is, this is.

[B]

That's why you're here as a problem solver. Tyler. I wouldn't want to have to put this jigsaw puzzle together, though, with all these routes.

[C]

I mean, definitely not. But to continue on your, your politics expertise, you mentioned these airlines are talking on Capitol Hill. We know that CEOs were out to the White House. Can you give us any insight into what the talks are actually looking like when it comes to President Trump's involvement? We know to resolve the last shutdown, it really was pressure at the airport. Have you gotten any indication that this is going to be perhaps the thing that tips this over the edge to reopen the government when it comes to President Trump's view of the situation?

[E]

Interesting. So a couple of aspects. Number one, we are definitely hearing at least on Capitol Hill that things are moving. There are discussions happening. The last I heard, and don't quote me on this, I mean, don't make it public or anything, but I believe the Senate is going to be here through the weekend working. So that's. So that's a good sign, right? So that's a good sign. They, they wouldn't be spending their, their time here if they weren't. If they didn't think they were making some real headway. They know what this new mandate out of FAA really means. Secondly, of course, whether you're President Trump or Schumer or Thune or the, the FAA or everybody should be putting kind of pressure on the system, not on one side or the other. But whatever that next bill is, vote for that one. That next bill. I don't care what party you're from, vote for that one and get this.

[C]

Thing open back a message direct to the lawmakers. Kristen, you knew Airlines for America presidency, of course, the former New Hampshire governor. Thanks so much for joining us here.

[B]

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime [e-mail].

[A]

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[C]

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[A]

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[E]

This episode is brought to you by PBS, Home of Ken Burns. His newest film, the American Revolution, reveals untold stories of people, some familiar, many forgotten, who risked everything to change the course of history. It's the story of a war that was bloody, complex and profoundly consequential. Ken Burns and his co directors, Sarah Botstein and David Schmidt, shine a light on how this historic fight for independence lit the spark for freedom that still burns today. Stream the American Revolution on the PBS app. Don't miss it.