Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode: Congress Mired in a Shutdown Brawl
Date: October 9, 2025
Host(s): Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg)
Guests/Correspondents: Michelle Jam Risko, Tyler Kendall, Laura Davison
Main Theme:
An in-depth conversation on the federal government shutdown entering its ninth day, ongoing partisan standoff, potential consequences for federal workers, the military, and the broader economy, plus live reactions to President Trump’s foreign policy moves.

Overview

This episode covers the deepening government shutdown crisis in Washington, exploring political brinkmanship in Congress, escalating tensions among lawmakers, uncertain legal footing for federal worker back pay, the risk of mass layoffs, economic impact, and the way ahead—or lack thereof. Alongside, the episode addresses President Trump’s trip to the Middle East in pursuit of a ceasefire deal and the optics of his absence during the shutdown. Insights are drawn from interviews with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D), and Bloomberg’s own correspondents.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crisis at Home, Crisis Abroad

• President Trump shifting focus between domestic shutdown and attempting to broker a ceasefire in Israel.
• Questions about the effectiveness and legitimacy of the nascent ceasefire and U.S. engagement with Qatar and Egypt.
• Tyler Kendall: “For the president to be preparing to get on Air Force One and fly there personally is pretty remarkable.” (02:00)
• Dilemma: The president potentially addressing a foreign legislature while U.S. government stands idle at home.

2. Shutdown Stalemate: Negotiations or Lack Thereof

• Negotiations mostly informal, taking place behind closed doors.
• Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP’s position: No new policy attachments; pass a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) and end the shutdown.
• Mike Johnson: “We’re not taking Chuck Schumer [Democrats’] ridiculous counterproposal. We’re going to do the right thing for the people, and the Republicans are on the job to do it.” (06:44)
• Democrats’ position: Willing to review bipartisan Senate proposals, insist on addressing Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and health care provisions.

3. Federal Worker Pay and GOP Divisions

• Emergent and surprising dispute over whether federal workers are guaranteed back pay once furloughs end.
  • Trump administration and OMB Director Russ Vought raising legal questions.
• Johnson’s uncertain stance: “There’s different legal analyses… I’ve always understood the law requires furloughed workers to receive back pay... I haven’t had a chance to talk to [the president] about [it] yet.” (04:42)
• Laura Davison: “Republicans on the Hill are deeply uncomfortable with this idea that federal workers might not get paid... it probably is illegal. There’s a law that Trump himself signed back in 2019.” (17:33)

4. Military Pay Threat, Mass Layoffs, Economic Risks

• Looming military pay deadline (Oct. 15)—uncertain if Congress will pass remedy in time.
• Risk of lasting damage: every week shutdown persists = $15B loss in GDP, layoffs, and interruptions to key federal functions.
• Speaker Johnson: “If you keep it closed for a month... you lose 43,000 civilian employees... It’s a terrible setback... Implications for national security.” (05:36)
• Stand-alone military pay bill suggested by Democrats; Johnson unreceptive so far.

5. Capitol Hill Tensions: Decorum at a Low

• Notable breakdown in civility: altercation between Rep. Lawler (R) and Minority Leader Jeffries (D).
• Johnson’s efforts at civility and his frustration, but acknowledges “tension here is very high... the stakes are so high.” (08:11)
• Hakeem Jeffries on Lawler: “MAGA Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He’s a clout chaser... complete and total embarrassment.” (12:56, 13:43)

6. Messaging War and Public Perception

• Both sides believe they’re winning public opinion (“messaging war”), but polls suggest Republicans are losing slightly.
• Democrats counting on public outrage over health care, ACA subsidy cuts, and potential flight delays as shutdown consequences escalate.
• Laura Davison: “The flight delays will be huge. That’s when they’ll really start to hear outrage from constituents... The worker pay issue, the federal worker pay issue… 85% of federal workers aren’t in D.C.—this is nationwide.” (15:57)

7. Likelihood and Terms of a Deal

• Little trust between Congressional leaders, raising doubts about pledges or future votes.
• Senate staying in session next week largely for optics, not because a deal is imminent.
• Joe Matthew: “This is a new low for trust, it does feel like. And so when you start asking how we get out of this, even lawmakers themselves start projecting a potential protracted shutdown.” (23:06)
• If anything breaks the deadlock, it may be mounting public outcry from missed paychecks and travel chaos—echoing the end of prior shutdowns.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike Johnson (05:36):
  “Every week that the Democrat shutdown continues, we could lose $15 billion in gross domestic product... you lose 43,000 civilian employees… It also has implications for national security.”

• Hakeem Jeffries (10:45):
  “Unlike Republicans who have adopted this my way or the highway approach, we are actually willing to sit down and evaluate in good faith anything that could advance the ball here for working class Americans, middle class Americans and everyday Americans.”

• Laura Davison (15:18):
  “We are still in the messaging phase of the shutdown. We’re not anywhere near, it seems, the dealmaking stage. So this is when you see lawmakers start behaving badly. They don’t have enough work. It’s a little bit like children.”

• Joe Matthew (23:06):
  “This is a new low for trust, it does feel like. And so when you start asking how we get out of this, that’s when even lawmakers themselves start projecting a potential protracted shutdown, maybe another record.”

Timestamps of Important Segments

• 01:03–02:04: Opening remarks on Trump’s ceasefire push and trip abroad
• 03:01–04:08: Potential consequences of concurrent shutdown and presidential travel
• 04:08–05:25: Speaker Johnson on back pay, mass layoffs, and national security
• 06:44–07:43: Johnson on House’s readiness and “clean” CR proposal
• 08:11–08:50: On Capitol Hill decorum and rising frustrations
• 10:45–12:37: Hakeem Jeffries on negotiating in good faith and the military pay threat
• 12:56–13:43: Jeffries recounts altercation with Rep. Lawler
• 15:00–17:08: Laura Davison on “anger stage” and key shutdown pain points
• 17:33–18:18: Debate on back pay legality and GOP discomfort
• 18:45–19:30: Could Trump act on layoffs or funding cuts while overseas?
• 20:18–21:04: Polls, party messaging, cracks in GOP unity
• 22:17–23:06: Only health care provisions likely to break the impasse
• 23:32–24:16: Next steps: CR rewrite, risk of “working on the next shutdown”

Conclusion

This episode offered a hard look at the political and human costs of the government shutdown. With both sides entrenched, intra-party tensions high, and the president distracted by global affairs, the path to reopening government is as unclear as ever. Key sticking points include back pay for federal workers, military payroll, ACA subsidies, and a fundamental “new low” in mutual trust on Capitol Hill. As one guest put it, the situation may have to get even worse—with bigger public disruptions—before a deal is reached.