Congress Mired in a Shutdown Brawl

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode: Congress Mired in a Shutdown Brawl
Date: October 9, 2025
Host(s): Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg)
Guests/Correspondents: Michelle Jam Risko, Tyler Kendall, Laura Davison
Main Theme:
An in-depth conversation on the federal government shutdown entering its ninth day, ongoing partisan standoff, potential consequences for federal workers, the military, and the broader economy, plus live reactions to President Trump’s foreign policy moves.

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Overview

This episode covers the deepening government shutdown crisis in Washington, exploring political brinkmanship in Congress, escalating tensions among lawmakers, uncertain legal footing for federal worker back pay, the risk of mass layoffs, economic impact, and the way ahead—or lack thereof. Alongside, the episode addresses President Trump’s trip to the Middle East in pursuit of a ceasefire deal and the optics of his absence during the shutdown. Insights are drawn from interviews with House Speaker Mike Johnson (R), House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D), and Bloomberg’s own correspondents.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Crisis at Home, Crisis Abroad

• President Trump shifting focus between domestic shutdown and attempting to broker a ceasefire in Israel.
• Questions about the effectiveness and legitimacy of the nascent ceasefire and U.S. engagement with Qatar and Egypt.
• Tyler Kendall: “For the president to be preparing to get on Air Force One and fly there personally is pretty remarkable.” (02:00)
• Dilemma: The president potentially addressing a foreign legislature while U.S. government stands idle at home.

2. Shutdown Stalemate: Negotiations or Lack Thereof

• Negotiations mostly informal, taking place behind closed doors.
• Speaker Mike Johnson and House GOP’s position: No new policy attachments; pass a “clean” continuing resolution (CR) and end the shutdown.
• Mike Johnson: “We’re not taking Chuck Schumer [Democrats’] ridiculous counterproposal. We’re going to do the right thing for the people, and the Republicans are on the job to do it.” (06:44)
• Democrats’ position: Willing to review bipartisan Senate proposals, insist on addressing Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies and health care provisions.

3. Federal Worker Pay and GOP Divisions

• Emergent and surprising dispute over whether federal workers are guaranteed back pay once furloughs end.
  • Trump administration and OMB Director Russ Vought raising legal questions.
• Johnson’s uncertain stance: “There’s different legal analyses… I’ve always understood the law requires furloughed workers to receive back pay... I haven’t had a chance to talk to [the president] about [it] yet.” (04:42)
• Laura Davison: “Republicans on the Hill are deeply uncomfortable with this idea that federal workers might not get paid... it probably is illegal. There’s a law that Trump himself signed back in 2019.” (17:33)

4. Military Pay Threat, Mass Layoffs, Economic Risks

• Looming military pay deadline (Oct. 15)—uncertain if Congress will pass remedy in time.
• Risk of lasting damage: every week shutdown persists = $15B loss in GDP, layoffs, and interruptions to key federal functions.
• Speaker Johnson: “If you keep it closed for a month... you lose 43,000 civilian employees... It’s a terrible setback... Implications for national security.” (05:36)
• Stand-alone military pay bill suggested by Democrats; Johnson unreceptive so far.

5. Capitol Hill Tensions: Decorum at a Low

• Notable breakdown in civility: altercation between Rep. Lawler (R) and Minority Leader Jeffries (D).
• Johnson’s efforts at civility and his frustration, but acknowledges “tension here is very high... the stakes are so high.” (08:11)
• Hakeem Jeffries on Lawler: “MAGA Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He’s a clout chaser... complete and total embarrassment.” (12:56, 13:43)

6. Messaging War and Public Perception

• Both sides believe they’re winning public opinion (“messaging war”), but polls suggest Republicans are losing slightly.
• Democrats counting on public outrage over health care, ACA subsidy cuts, and potential flight delays as shutdown consequences escalate.
• Laura Davison: “The flight delays will be huge. That’s when they’ll really start to hear outrage from constituents... The worker pay issue, the federal worker pay issue… 85% of federal workers aren’t in D.C.—this is nationwide.” (15:57)

7. Likelihood and Terms of a Deal

• Little trust between Congressional leaders, raising doubts about pledges or future votes.
• Senate staying in session next week largely for optics, not because a deal is imminent.
• Joe Matthew: “This is a new low for trust, it does feel like. And so when you start asking how we get out of this, even lawmakers themselves start projecting a potential protracted shutdown.” (23:06)
• If anything breaks the deadlock, it may be mounting public outcry from missed paychecks and travel chaos—echoing the end of prior shutdowns.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Mike Johnson (05:36):
  “Every week that the Democrat shutdown continues, we could lose $15 billion in gross domestic product... you lose 43,000 civilian employees… It also has implications for national security.”

• Hakeem Jeffries (10:45):
  “Unlike Republicans who have adopted this my way or the highway approach, we are actually willing to sit down and evaluate in good faith anything that could advance the ball here for working class Americans, middle class Americans and everyday Americans.”

• Laura Davison (15:18):
  “We are still in the messaging phase of the shutdown. We’re not anywhere near, it seems, the dealmaking stage. So this is when you see lawmakers start behaving badly. They don’t have enough work. It’s a little bit like children.”

• Joe Matthew (23:06):
  “This is a new low for trust, it does feel like. And so when you start asking how we get out of this, that’s when even lawmakers themselves start projecting a potential protracted shutdown, maybe another record.”

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Timestamps of Important Segments

• 01:03–02:04: Opening remarks on Trump’s ceasefire push and trip abroad
• 03:01–04:08: Potential consequences of concurrent shutdown and presidential travel
• 04:08–05:25: Speaker Johnson on back pay, mass layoffs, and national security
• 06:44–07:43: Johnson on House’s readiness and “clean” CR proposal
• 08:11–08:50: On Capitol Hill decorum and rising frustrations
• 10:45–12:37: Hakeem Jeffries on negotiating in good faith and the military pay threat
• 12:56–13:43: Jeffries recounts altercation with Rep. Lawler
• 15:00–17:08: Laura Davison on “anger stage” and key shutdown pain points
• 17:33–18:18: Debate on back pay legality and GOP discomfort
• 18:45–19:30: Could Trump act on layoffs or funding cuts while overseas?
• 20:18–21:04: Polls, party messaging, cracks in GOP unity
• 22:17–23:06: Only health care provisions likely to break the impasse
• 23:32–24:16: Next steps: CR rewrite, risk of “working on the next shutdown”

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Conclusion

This episode offered a hard look at the political and human costs of the government shutdown. With both sides entrenched, intra-party tensions high, and the president distracted by global affairs, the path to reopening government is as unclear as ever. Key sticking points include back pay for federal workers, military payroll, ACA subsidies, and a fundamental “new low” in mutual trust on Capitol Hill. As one guest put it, the situation may have to get even worse—with bigger public disruptions—before a deal is reached.

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Transcript

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[Joe Matthew]

Trump speaking live to members of his Cabinet at the White House. We wanted to spend some time listening to the president there about a range of issues and specifically what's happening with regard to a cease fire in Israel. The beginning of his remarks were focused on Israel and we moved to the shutdown. This is day nine, among other issues. We'll return to the room if he does turn things over to questions from reporters who are actually in the Cabinet Room today. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Thanks for being with us on Balance of Power Thursday Edition. Michelle Jam Risko is with me here in the nation's capital. So, too is Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent. Tyler would typically be at the White House, but we're lucky to have her in studio today, having made her way back over to the bureau here. Not a lot of news here. In fact, there's still a lot of questions, Tyler, about the makeup of this cease fire plan that has now apparently been accepted by Hamas and the start of implementation by Israel. Considering the questions we have, though, for the president to be preparing to get on Air Force One and fly there personally is pretty remarkable.

[Tyler Kendall]

Definitely, Joe, including whether or not Hamas is going to disarm, whether or not this cease fire will hold. There's still a lot of big questions going forward here when it comes to it comes to this. But it is clear that the White House really does want to show this forward progress. And I found it interesting that we just heard President Trump, in these remarks during the Cabinet meeting, call out these regional partners, including Qatar and Egypt. We know that this administration has been really working closely with with those regional partners. We saw it really highlighted during the UN General assembly, for example, President Trump holding what turned out to be a very consequential meeting on the sidelines to get the backing of these other nations. I point out that back in May, we saw President Trump become the first sitting US President to visit Qatar. And I think that is really one of the themes that we're going to see moving forward here. When it comes to some of these big questions about maintaining peace and stability in the region, how is the US Engaging more broadly, perhaps, with these other partners?

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Well, Tyler, if this trip does come to fruition, we'll have the president abroad, perhaps even speaking to lawmakers on that side. At the same time as this shutdown seems to have no end in sight. Did we hear anything from the president today or in the past 48 hours that you think will change that?

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, at this point, our understanding is these negotiations, any sort of talks, they're all informal and they're happening perhaps on a bipartisan basis, but they're behind the scenes and they are not at this leadership level. We know that the pressure is mounting here, perhaps interesting to hear President Trump there say we will be making permanent cuts to due to the shutdown. That's one of the headlines that's crossing the Bloomberg terminal. We know that's part of this pressure campaign that's going to perhaps add fuel to the fire. The other is whether or not federal workers are going to get their back pay. I had the chance to ask President Trump directly yesterday whether or not members of the military are going to get paid because Joe and Michelle, we are now less than one week away from that potential missed paycheck. That's October 15th. The President said he thinks military pay in particular will be resolved by then. But at this point, with no indication from leadership, it's unclear what that path forward is going to look like.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, as you were asking questions of the president yesterday at the Antifa roundtable, I was speaking with the speaker of the House and brought up these very same issues, including back pay for federal workers who have been furloughed. This is suddenly up for debate. Apparently in Washington, the president and his OMB director, Russ Vogt, began questioning the law on the books as to whether that guarantees back pay for furloughed workers. And it was part of my conversation here with the speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. We're going to hear from Johnson and Hakeem Jeffries, who also spoke to Bloomberg today. Let's start with the speaker.

[Mike Johnson]

There's different legal analyses that are floating around right now, and I've been so busy with this, I haven't had a chance to dig into it. I am a lawyer. I'm looking forward to reading through that because I kind of get into all the scholarship side of this. It has always been my understanding that the law requires furloughed workers to receive back pay. And of course, that's been the tradition. And I'm not sure exactly what the president is referring to there. There. I haven't had a chance to talk to him about specific issue yet, but we will. I can tell you this, though. The view of the White House, the view of the President himself, is that he doesn't want federal workers to be used as pawns. Here we've got some great patriotic Americans who work for our agencies and provide essential services to the people. They should not suffer the harms of people who want to play political games. And I think this really important principle for us to advance.

[Joe Matthew]

Do you worry about mass layoffs coming as early as next week and that actually poisoning the well even more between Republicans and Democrats? What would be the impact of a move like.

[Mike Johnson]

Well, look, I'm worried about all sorts of adverse effects because of how it affects the American people. We had some analysis today that every week that the Democrat shutdown continues, we could lose $15 billion in gross domestic product. I mean, it's a real hit for real people and it has a reverberating effect. And if you keep it closed for a month, then one of the estimates I saw today is you lose 43,000 civilian employees, you know, because it has a ripple effect throughout the economy. We can't afford to do that right now. Things were going in the right direction and this is a terrible setback for the country. It also has implications for national security. I mean, you look at things like nuclear deterrence. Those programs are stalled right now. Right. And every day you do that, it has real world consequences for us, not a game. And we need to end it right now.

[Joe Matthew]

I know that you've said to House Republicans, at least reportedly, that you would give them 48 hours notice if they had to come back into town when folks left following the vote on the CR in the House, if they're talking next door in the Senate, if some sort of deal is brokered that might alter the CR as it stands now. Do you plan to call your members back?

[Mike Johnson]

Look, devil's in the details, but I don't know how they could possibly alter it. We made it so simple. There again, there is nothing to take off of that. It is virtually identical to what Chuck Schumer himself championed in March of this year. And so we're not going to strap on extraneous policy issues and all of that. That would take a long time because the government's now closed down. They need to pass the clean, turn the lights back on and get everybody back to work. I'm just so frustrated with the nonsense around this, and I think more and more people at home are as well. I saw Rasmussen poll that came out a couple of hours ago. 49% of the American people were polled said the Democrats did this to give benefits to illegal aliens. They are not wrong. $200 billion in their counter proposal would pay illegal aliens the benefits that hardworking American taxpayers provide. We're not doing that. We're not going to add a trillion and a half new dollars to spending. We're not taking Chuck Schumer ridiculous counterproposal. We're going to do the right thing for the people and the Republicans are on the job to do it.

[Joe Matthew]

I know you had a couple of visitors at your office today, Mr. Speaker. A couple of Democratic senators, I believe Kelly and Gallego had a lot of things to say about the swearing in of a new member of Congress from Arizona. I also saw Congressman Mike Lawler from New York get into an altercation with Hakeem Jeffries as he was coming out of his office here. I know that elbows can be sharp on Capitol Hill, but, Mr. Speaker, what's happened to decorum? Is this a new low?

[Mike Johnson]

Look, I work on decorum around here all the time. Everybody knows that's my record. I started it when I came to Washington in January 2017. I authored the Honor and Civility Caucus pledge and the Commitment to Civility. I mean, we have to maintain this. There are fights about policy, but it shouldn't be personal. I try to model that myself. I try to, you know, encourage colleagues to do it. But I would tell you the tension here is very high because it's high because the stakes are so high. And you get real Americans, real constituents back home who are really suffering because of the nonsense. And it gets our gets us upset here sometimes. You know, I understand that emotion. We've got to keep it in check. We've got to get everybody working together. We've got to get the lights back on.

[Joe Matthew]

To get the lights back on. Easier said than done here in Washington, the Speaker of the House talking with us here on balance of power. That was the Late Edition yesterday, Michelle Jam Risko. So the talking points are pretty tight when you're dealing with any Republican lawmaker. And of course, he's providing a lot of them so really crystallizing the arguments on the Republican side of things, you can sense the frustration. I spoke with Senator Mike Rounds last evening. You could sense disappointment. Everyone feels kind of deflated right now with no clear off ramp.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Well, and you asked them about decorum and you also asked them about a few perhaps windows of opening room for negotiation on confirmation of lawmakers and on health care. And I think, you know, as a lawyer, Mike Johnson had a ready argument, as you say. He had all the talking points set up. He made his argument pretty articulately. But the one point where I saw, I thought I saw some daylight in your cracking his argument was when you asked him about the health care negotiations. Why not order up or pledge to have a vote on that and let this thing kind of play out? And he said he couldn't do that due to process. That seems a little suspect. You and I both know, yeah, he's.

[Joe Matthew]

The boss and he can do what he wants there. But obviously they're not going to budge on this, at least not yet. And when you listen to Hakeem Jeffries, you really get a sense of the distance between these two. When Mike Lawler showed up at Hakeem Jeffries office yesterday waving bills at him and it turned into a screaming match. I mean, to hear the minority leader tell him to shut your mouth was a pretty stark moment. And it was happening again while two Democratic senators were standing in front of the Speaker's office trying to do the same thing about the swearing in of Congresswoman electrialva over the Epstein files. This could get worse, by the way.

[Mike Johnson]

In the days ahead.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Unfriendly terms right now, I think we can say the least.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah. Let's hear from Jeffries. He was on Bloomberg surveillance this morning. The Democratic leader in the House with the other side of the story here on Bloomberg.

[Hakeem Jeffries]

Listen, our view, certainly in the House, is that we will evaluate in good faith any bipartisan proposal that is sent over to us from the Senate if it decisively addresses the Republican health care crisis with respect the Affordable Care act, tax credit extensions or any other issues that may be put on the table because of the enormity of the attack on the health care of the American people that Republicans have waged this year. It's got to be meaningful. It's got to actually improve the lives of the American people. But unlike Republicans who have adopted this my way or the highway approach, we are actually willing to sit down and evaluate in good faith anything that could advance the ball here for working class Americans, middle class Americans and everyday Americans.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Is there an opportunity for standalone legislation to make sure that the more than 1 million active duty service members get paid next week?

[Hakeem Jeffries]

Certainly. Our view in the House is that we should stand by our men and women in uniform and make sure that they do not miss a paycheck. Unfortunately, Speaker Johnson has ruled that out, saying it's not really an issue that he's prepared to deal with, in part because Republicans canceled votes last week, canceled votes this week. Apparently, they may not be coming back next week. And what is that all for? Why are they on vacation in the middle of a government shutdown? Particularly as it relates to the real possibility that our military families might miss a paycheck that they cannot afford to miss? We're urging Republicans to get back into town, allow us to deal with the military pay issue, allow us to deal with the Republican healthcare crisis, and allow us to reopen the government so we can enact a spending agreement that meets the needs of the American.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

And we also saw a pretty explosive argument between you and fellow New York Congressman Mike Lawler. And then you proceeded to call Lawlor an embarrassment on television. Was this fight representative of the state tensions that are going on within the Republican Party in New York State right now?

[Hakeem Jeffries]

Well, maga Mike Lawler is an irrelevant individual. He's a clout chaser. And he was stalking the Democratic leadership press conference in ways that are unhinged. And, you know, at the end of the day, our view is the people who need to sit down and have the conversation with us, Republican leadership in the House and in the Senate, the Trump administration, including the president or the vice president or anyone that they designate, are the ones who are ultimately going to determine how we can find a bipartisan path out of it. And we look forward to having those conversations. But unfortunately, Republicans to date have declined to do that.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Well, what was he doing that you deem unhinged? And have you spoken to him since? Have tensions cooled? It doesn't sound like they have.

[Hakeem Jeffries]

He's an irrelevant individual. And as I indicated, his behavior clearly speaks for itself. Complete and total embarrassment, as a description was a polite use of words.

[Mike Johnson]

Wow.

[Joe Matthew]

Hakeem Jeffries, coming off his encounter with Congressman Mike Lawler, of course, the Republican from New York. Great conversation, and thanks to Annmarie Hordern. That was from Bloomberg Surveillance earlier this morning. Stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this. So have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK CO Stories to learn how CBS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK CO Stories.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

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[Joe Matthew]

We're joined in the meantime by Laura Davison, our deputy bureau chief here in Washington. Might have to put pads on to continue covering this. Laura, what did you make of the day in Washington yesterday with these encounters taking place on Capitol Hill? It's like the stages of grief and apparently we're in the anger stage.

[Laura Davison]

We're in the anger stage and also we're in the stunt stage. Remember, the House has been out. They have not actually had any votes. The Senate really also hasn't had that much work to do because we are still in the messaging phase of the shutdown. We're not anywhere near, it seems, the dealmaking stage. So this is when you see lawmakers start behaving badly. They don't have enough work. It's a little bit like children. You need to make sure they're fully occupied to, to stay on track.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

So we've been talking a lot about the pressure points at this phase. We talked a lot about furloughs, worker back pay, especially the military pay deadline, flight delays. Is it are any of these factors kind of growing in importance, importance to these lawmakers who might still be swayed one way or another, the flight delays?

[Laura Davison]

That is the number one thing to watch. One, because that's when they're going to start to hear the outrage from their constituents that affects, you know, everyone, no matter where your district is. You know, the worker pay issue, the federal worker pay issue, you know, that is also a massive issue. You know, you've got military bases and federal workers spread out across the country. You know, Some more than 85% of federal workers aren't in Washington, D.C. so it's not just a, you know, local, Maryland, Virginia issue that this is. This is nationwide. But it still is, you know, only about, you know, 2 to 3 million people that are getting a paycheck from the federal government that aren't getting that paycheck as the shutdown persists. But the flight delays will be will be huge. There's also more niche areas, but that could have real effects for people. You know, the flood insurance program is essentially breaking down during the shutdown. We're not seeing economic data come out which, you know, think, oh, that's only important for, you know, economists and Wall Street. But this also affects the Social Security cost of living increase that they would calculate at an income in, in this fall. That's very important for a lot of people, you know, who are on Social Security. They want to see what their increase is going to be for the coming year. So there's a lot of little details here that the longer this goes on, the longer this piles up, the more outrage hits. And we're at that point where lawmakers are kind of trying to figure out, you know, how long can we withhold before constituents are really mad.

[Joe Matthew]

What do we make of the debate here over back pay? This is what the White House got people talking about yesterday, that maybe there's not a guarantee, as we thought was codified by law, to give back pay to federal workers. Post furlough. Speaker Johnson sounded a lot like Donald Trump there, having said they deserve back pay. When we asked him about it last evening, he said that there are different interpretations floating around there and he hasn't quite read up on it yet. Is this about to change?

[Laura Davison]

This is my interpretation of Jonathan's comments there is that Republicans on the Hill are deeply uncomfortable with this idea that federal workers might not get paid. You know, those are their constituents. Trump, from his perch at the White House is seeing this as much more of a, you know, here's a way to sort of, you know, put pressure on Democrats. This is something that Russ Vote, the White House budget director, has been very keen to do as a way to sort of really kind of hit Democrats where it hurts. But when you actually see lawmakers, they do not want to do this. And this is, you know, and much less it probably is illegal. There's a law that Trump himself signed back in 2019. You know, of course, the Trump administration not been afraid of, you know, testing these, these boundaries. You know, if they do it, it would almost certainly be litigated. So unclear, you know, exactly how that would play out. But this is, this was a, that's one of the more far fetched things, things that they could do.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Do you think we'll see any movement in the days ahead, especially as the president is headed off into the Middle East? He's made these threats of, you know, Democrat programs, as he just called them in the Cabinet meeting. He's also talked about potentially mass firings, you know, to the people that are not being taken care of or not his people. Will we see any movement on that while he's out, you know, trying to achieve Middle east peace, or do you think that that's something that would be left for him when he returns?

[Laura Davison]

This is a big question because, you know, the president has been quite distracted with, you know, with the Gaza deal, with a bunch of other issues that he hasn't really been, you know, fully plugged in to all of the shutdown talks. What we've seen so far right now have been a bunch of threats. We've seen the president say multiple times he's going to fire mass workers. Earlier this week, he said in four or five days he'll make a decision that that deadline may end up falling when he's in the Middle East.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

We heard that a couple of times, right? Yeah.

[Laura Davison]

And you know, know what we have started to see is Russ vote calling to cancel certain funding for projects, transit projects in New York and Chicago, clean energy funding. So we could see more of that while the president is away. But some of these bigger, you know, very politically explosive announcements, it would be surprising to say the least to see that happen while the president is really rejoicing in cutting this, this Middle east peace deal.

[Joe Matthew]

What will be the conversation around the commander in chief leaving the nation to potentially speak before another country's legislative body in the middle of a government shutdown here?

[Laura Davison]

This is certainly something that Democrats are going to use to really, you know, beat down on Trump. You know, the Senate just made a decision, you know, a couple hours ago that they were going to stay in next week. Scheduled recess. Yes, that is, that is for sure confirmed. But, you know, I think that part of their calculus here is looking at what's going on with the Trump schedule. And if you have the House out, out, the Senate out, you know, and the president out of the country, you know, again, all, you know, levers of government that Republicans control. That's a really bad look when you have people, you know, especially, you know, on October 15th, when all the military pay, you know, all those military members are supposed to go without with pay in addition to about 2 million other federal workers.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

But going back to the messaging war, both sides still seem to be thinking that they're winning it. Is that true? Yes.

[Laura Davison]

And the polling shows, you know, that the Republicans are still losing a little bit. But, you know, you look at, at poll by poll, and this changes a lot. You know what the real breakthrough that Democrats are really banking on this week was Marjorie Taylor Greene coming out and saying, hey, look, hey, Republicans, we need to focus on this ACA issue. You know, this is going to really hurt My kids hurt people in my district. You know, so far she's, you know, one of a small choir of voices. But Democrats are banking that as these notices go out, people see the premium increases, that they'll be able to win this messaging war. You know, that's still, that's still a little bit of a risky gambit, but they're feeling good as are, you know, you see more crack acts forming on the Republican side. You have, you know, Trump undercutting the, the congressional leaders messages. So there's a little bit more discord at least right this, right now, this week.

[Joe Matthew]

If you're just joining us on Bloomberg Radio, it's Balance of Power live from Washington. We're going to kick things over shortly to Hollywood where David Ellison, Paramount Skydance is going to be sitting down with our own Lucas Shaw. That's only moments away here on Bloomberg. The fact that the Senate's going to be in next week, should that give us hope that there's maybe some progress being had or that's just optics because nobody wants to leave town right now.

[Laura Davison]

Right now. It's just optics. They don't want to, they don't want to leave. They will go home for the weekend. There's no scheduled talks. There's no scheduled plans. But if the mood does shift, if we see flight delays get really bad over the weekend, if we see other adverse effects start piling up, at least everyone's in the same room versus having to have another two days, you know, to get all the lawmakers back and in town. So that is a, you know, one, one hopeful sign that, you know, this could potentially, you know, wrap up next week. But I'm not placing any bets on that.

[Michelle Jam Risko]

Well, as you look at ways, Laura, that maybe each side could maybe give just a little bit in this negotiation, where do you think the Republicans first would maybe give up something? Is it the pledge to held a vote on the health care, you know, subsidies and the premiums, or is it something else that they might be willing to kind of throw the Democrats a bone to kind of end this thing right now.

[Laura Davison]

The conversation to end this has to have some piece of the ACA subsidies as part of it. You know, that's been Democrats main ask. They basically peeled away. They came in with a long list of health care asks, you know, rolling back some of the Medicaid cuts in Trump's tax law. You know, that's not even talked about anymore. You know, everything is laser focused on the ACA subsidies and whether that is, you know, that, that funding is Included in the cr, that would be a major win for the Democrats or a promise of a future vote, which is always a risky thing that has happens in Washington. You know, a lot of, a lot of votes have gotten passed because folks were promised something would come later that never did. So you're going to see Democrats being reticent to agree to that. But it depends, you know, kind of how, how strong the pledge is and how much they trust the other side. And that's really the big issue right now. If you just have leaders, you know, you know, between Schumer's and Jefferies and that just don't trust each other, don't trust their Republican counterparts in Thune and Johnson.

[Joe Matthew]

This is a new low for trust, it does feel like. And so when you start asking how we get out of this, that's when even lawmakers themselves start projecting a potential protracted shutdown, maybe another record. And I wonder what this, what do we do with this November 21st date if we keep ticking away the weeks here? Don't they need to rewrite the CR at some point? They'll pass this and it'll be a week long.

[Laura Davison]

Yeah. And that's the thing that they're really watching carefully of. You know, do you, you know, if you pass it now, even you've, you've already wasted two.

[Joe Matthew]

We're already working on the next shutdown.

[Laura Davison]

And they're not focused on the appropriations bills, which, you know, for the folks who are, you know, the real budget nerds, know that they have to get those, you know, those underlying long term spending bills done. Work has essentially halted on that. You know, you have some moderates who are kind of talking about, you know, what could they do there? But that's really just a sideshow here. So this is going to be a really tricky issue. I'll note that in the last shutdown, the thing, the day that the CR was signed was also the day that there was ground stoppages at Philadelphia Airport, at Newark, at LaGuardia. That was the thing that finally made folks say, okay, let's pass this. Let's, let's get a deal. You know, we now suddenly have shut down the entire.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, apparently that's coming based on what we're hearing.

[Podcast Host / Narrator]

Right? Yeah.

[Joe Matthew]

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime Eastern at Bloomberg. So have you heard the story about the prescription plan with savings automatically built in. It's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.

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