Balance of Power – Congress Nears 2025 Finish, Zelenskiy Hints At US Guarantees

Podcast: Bloomberg’s Balance of Power
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz
Date: December 15, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the high-stakes conclusion of the 2025 Congressional calendar, with lawmakers facing critical decisions amid time constraints. The discussion centers on two core topics:

• The potentially catastrophic expiration of enhanced Obamacare subsidies ("the cliff"), partisan divisions over health care reform, and legislative maneuvers in Congress;
• The shifting prospects for peace in Ukraine, including President Zelensky's signals on NATO, US and European roles in security guarantees, and the geopolitical repercussions of current negotiations.

The show features insight from Bloomberg’s congressional reporting, expert commentary from Heather Conley (American Enterprise Institute), and political analysis by Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Looming Obamacare Subsidy "Cliff" (00:56–07:18, 18:03–29:21)

Legislative Deadlock and Congressional Maneuvers

• Congress has only five working days left in 2025, with the expiration of enhanced Obamacare subsidies at month’s end (00:56).
• Despite efforts, a deal to extend the subsidies is highly unlikely before year’s end. Lawmakers expect premiums to rise and coverage loss for some Americans due to this lapse (03:20–04:25).
• House moderates may push for a bipartisan plan or a "discharge petition"—a procedural move to bring a bill to the floor without Speaker support (04:25).
• The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) will pass the Senate, and a large slate of Trump White House nominations are likely to be confirmed, but health care remains unresolved.

Quote:

"My bet would be that, you know, the pretty sure bet it will not be extended before the end of the year."
— Eric Watson, Bloomberg Congressional Reporter (03:59)

Discharge Petition Dynamics

• Discharge petitions have gained prominence as a mechanism for circumventing leadership deadlock. These have succeeded (e.g., federal worker rights, Epstein file release), though it’s a rare affront to the Speaker’s authority (04:48–05:30).

Policy and Premiums—Nuances and Implications

• Republican Rep. Troy Downing (MT) argues subsidy extension may not stop rate hikes, as premium increases are already in place for 2026 due to insurance filing timelines (19:18–22:20).
• He questions the efficacy of retroactive extensions, outlining the administrative chaos and market confusion it could unleash (20:23).
• Downing and panelists acknowledge that rising health care costs, not just subsidy lapses, drive premium increases and market churn.

Quote:

"If the enhanced premium tax credits, if the Obamacare tax credits expire, rates have gone up. If they get extended, rates have gone up, it's the same thing no matter what."
— Troy Downing, Congressman (19:58)

• HSAs (Health Savings Accounts) are discussed as a longer-term, pro-consumer solution, but are not part of this year’s legislative effort (23:28).

Political Panel: Pessimism and Policy Gridlock

• Rick Davis notes the fractious Republican approach, with multiple, uncoordinated bills and little hope for a major fix (28:13–29:21).
• Jeannie Shan Zaino highlights the stunning political inertia, even as health care affordability tops voter concerns.

Quote:

"Yeah, I believe he said we've already gone off the cliff. It's too late. There's nothing can be done. The costs are going up."
— Jeannie Shan Zaino (29:32)

2. Ukraine Peace Talks – Concessions, Guarantees, and the Role of the US (07:18–17:15, 31:05–43:17)

US and European Security Guarantees

• President Zelensky hints at abandoning Ukraine’s immediate bid to join NATO, a significant concession, in exchange for “NATO-like Article 5 security guarantees” from the US and Europe (08:54–10:14).
• Rumors suggest the US may propose formalizing guarantees through Senate ratification, but European cooperation and enforcement doubts persist.
• Main sticking points:
  • The nature and enforceability of US/EU security guarantees
  • Territorial concessions (especially in Donbas), with suggestions Zelensky may allow a local referendum (11:11)

Quote:

"What Ukrainians are asking for is NATO like Article 5 security guarantees. And that is one of the main sticking points for these conversations."
— Heather Conley (08:54)

• However, ambiguity remains about what would trigger military intervention and how hybrid warfare might bypass these guarantees (10:58).

Risks, Russian Position, and Strategic Realities

• Russia’s constitutional claim to occupied Ukrainian territory makes concession especially difficult (11:29).
• A demilitarized zone is floated as a hypothetical—but past monitoring efforts have shown limited effectiveness (12:03).
• As talks conclude, panelists caution that without Russian reciprocity, peace remains elusive; potential Ukrainian territorial concessions would require constitutional changes and a national referendum (12:35–13:54).

Quote:

"So you cave, you capitulate to the Russian position and that has... it's absolutely..."
— Heather Conley (14:00)

• The US national security strategy, critiqued for omitting clear adversary identification, signals a reluctance to confront Russia directly (14:55).

Geopolitical Implications and US Leadership

• Discussion turns to China’s lessons from the US-Ukraine approach, with the argument that economic stability appears to trump deterrence—potentially emboldening aggression elsewhere (15:41).
• Both panelists and guests note Trump’s focus on economic normalization with Russia, suggesting transactional priorities over traditional alliance-building and deterrence (16:05, 39:41).

Political Panel: Realism, Reservations and Fractured Alliances

• Both Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino express skepticism about an imminent peace—despite more talks, Russia’s demands remain maximalist, and Ukraine’s willingness to concede stems from battlefield losses (33:08–36:25).
• The bilateral Article 5-style guarantee approach is seen as a poor substitute for NATO, leaving Ukraine with "multiple caveats" and no clear path to durable security (33:08–34:26).

Quote:

"It's really hard to imagine a scenario that they get peace without giving everything that Vladimir Putin wants to Russia. And I don't see anybody at the position now of saying yes to that deal."
— Rick Davis (37:26)

• Critique of the Trump administration’s pivot from Europe toward Latin America, and a preference to let regional powers manage their own conflicts, leaves European allies isolated and less capable (37:56–41:54).

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Congressional gridlock:
  "We're like Thelma and Louise. We're going off the cliff together." — Joe Mathieu (30:03)

• On the future of the Ukraine conflict:
  "Is that sustainable? If you're framed as capitulating, it's not sustainable." — Joe Mathieu (14:05)

• On Western resolve:
  "We are closing our eyes to this. And if in fact, the United States provides security guarantees, we are inserting ourselves in this. So this is a moment, for clarity, of knowing who the aggressor is, who is challenging the United States and our European partners and preparing for potential conflict." — Heather Conley (14:55)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:56–02:28: Congressional calendar crunch, “the cliff” on Obamacare subsidies explained.
• 03:20–04:25: No deal likely this year; possibility of January extensions and the role of discharge petitions.
• 05:30–06:53: War powers debate; NDAA implications for Venezuela and outbound investment to China and Russia.
• 07:18–13:54: Ukraine peace talks update with Heather Conley—security guarantees, territorial concessions, realism about Russian aims.
• 18:03–23:28: Rep. Troy Downing on premiums, the mechanics of extending tax credits, and how ACA market issues fuel rising costs.
• 28:13–30:03: Political panel on fractured Republican strategy, likely failure of new legislation, and lack of leadership.
• 31:05–41:54: Ukraine peace prospects revisited—panelists dissect Zelensky’s concessions, Russian intransigence, EU/US relations, and the risk of US disengagement.

Conclusion

The episode underscores the bitterly divided state of Washington as Congress limps toward year-end, with critical health care coverage hanging in the balance and little hope for last-minute breakthroughs. Simultaneously, US foreign policy faces a turning point, as Ukraine’s precarious position and the evolving role of American and European security guarantees reveal deep geopolitical rifts and strategic drift.

Through expert voices and candid debate, "Balance of Power" clarifies just how much is at stake for both domestic policy and global order as 2025 draws to a close.