El-Sayed Win Fuels Progressives

Summary

Balance of Power — “El-Sayed Win Fuels Progressives”

Bloomberg • August 5, 2026
Host: Joe Mathieu
Co-Host: Kailey Leinz
Special Guests: Lara Brown (Political Scientist), Jeannie Shan Zaino (Democratic Analyst), Rick Davis (Republican Strategist), Kyle Kondik (Politcal Analyst/Sabato’s Crystal Ball), Abdul El-Sayed (Senate Nominee, MI)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into the significance of Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, the broader implications for the Democratic Party’s ideological direction, and the national political environment as the 2026 midterms approach. The hosts and guests break down the Michigan race, discuss President Trump’s response, analyze lessons about campaign strategy (especially money in politics), and assess the potential for a “progressive wave” within the party, looking at whether this signals a national trend or is simply the result of local factors.

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Key Segments and Discussion Points

1. Breaking News – International Affairs and Presidential Messaging

[00:54–06:49]

• Strait of Hormuz Deal: Discussion about the possibly imminent US-Iran-Oman agreement to temporarily reopen the Strait of Hormuz for shipping.
  • "Negotiations are still ongoing... this would be a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz." – Kate Sullivan, [02:00]
  • The deal is not related to Iran’s nuclear program, but could set the stage for future talks.
• Impact on Domestic Politics: President’s upcoming speech in Las Vegas aims to shift focus to the economy (e.g., touting 'no tax on tips' and addressing affordability), although high gas prices continue to loom large.
  • "It's definitely something that is harder and harder for the president and the White House to ignore." – Kate Sullivan, [05:51]

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2. Michigan Senate Primary – Spotlight on Progressive Momentum

[06:50–11:49]

• Race Summary: Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive, wins narrowly over moderate Congresswoman Haley Stevens in the Democratic primary.
  • Joe outlines the closeness: "It was tight. We're talking about a 1% difference." – Joe, [06:50], [29:03]
• El-Sayed’s Message:
  • "To all of our supporters... we have a responsibility to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the US Senate." – Abdul El-Sayed, [07:31]
  • Stevens concedes and calls for unity, setting the tone for Democrats heading into the general.
• President Trump’s Response:
  • "Abdul Al Said... a communist loser who hates Jews in Israel. She [Stevens]... was not expected to do nearly as well as she did." – Joe reading Trump post, [07:55], [33:35]

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3. Expert Panel — Interpreting the Michigan Results (and Beyond)

[08:45–12:53]

Lara Brown (Political Scientist)

• Overstates the extent of the Sanders-vs-Establishment divide; expects more focus on White House/Presidential approval among voters than on intra-party differences.
  • "It is not necessarily going to be a discussion about the finite policy differences within or among Democrats." – Lara Brown, [08:45]
• Comparison drawn to historical cycles: party infighting is typical after losing the presidency.

Subplot: Michigan as a Microcosm

• William Lawrence, another progressive, defeats moderates in MI’s 7th district.
• Wesley Bell beats Cori Bush, showing limits to the leftward trend.

Local vs. National Narrative

• "I actually don't think there is a narrative. I think... a lot of candidates appealing to local concerns and the one major concern is the economy..." – Lara Brown, [10:34]

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4. Scandals and Party Stability

[12:53–15:31]

• Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards drops reelection after House Ethics Committee recommends censure; Max Miller faces domestic abuse allegations.
• Analysis: Parties tend not to push members out unless the scandal threatens to damage the entire party brand.
  • "It is a question of how bad does it look, not necessarily how bad are the allegations." – Lara Brown, [13:42]
• Historical analogy: 2006 and Representatives like Tom DeLay stepping aside after winning primaries due to corruption scandals.

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5. The Progressive “Wave” — Reality Check

[16:36–27:02]

Joe and Political Analysts:

• El-Sayed's campaign focused on:
  • “Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all.” – Joe, [16:36]
  • "I don't take corporate contributions for a reason... The politics that have been dominated by corporate interests and... billionaires." – Abdul El-Sayed (previous interview), [17:46]
• $50M+ spent on Stevens' behalf (AIPAC & establishment money), but she lost: Questioning the efficacy of big spending in primaries.

Jeannie Shan Zaino:

• Polls were “way, way off” in predicting El-Sayed’s margin; expectations shape narratives.
  • "None of us would have said that he would have had a chance to become nominee of the Democratic Party in Michigan given how progressive he has been described." – Jeannie, [19:10]

Rick Davis:

• Money can’t buy votes; sees national polarization pushing both parties further left/right.
  • "This is a migration of the Democratic Party, just like there's a migration to the right on the Republican Party." – Rick Davis, [20:42]

What Determines Results?

• Jeannie: “It depends on the district, it depends on the state… Candidates matter an awful lot.” [22:31]
  • On Mike Rogers (GOP): "Is he going to hug Donald Trump or move away from him?" [23:01]

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6. Senate Math, House Map, and National Mood

[24:37–27:59]

Senate Race Dynamics

• Michigan seat is crucial for Democrats’ hopes of retaining the Senate.
  • "I think they've got to retain that seat... Finding that fifth seat if they had to would be incredibly difficult." – Rick Davis, [25:00]
• Rick believes the progressive trend transcends state lines.

DCCC’s Expanding Target List

• Joe reviews the 58 Republican-held House seats now in the Democratic crosshairs.
• "Some of these names you wouldn't expect..." — Joe, questioning map's ambition, [26:17]
• Jeannie: Redistricting & external factors make major gains difficult despite the national environment.

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7. Vote Totals and Immediate Reactions

[29:03–31:59]

• Final Tally: El-Sayed wins by a single point — 48.5% to 47.5%.
• El-Sayed praises Stevens’ service and calls for unity against Mike Rogers.
  • "Whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us... to make sure we never let Mike Rogers see the inside of the U.S. senate." – Abdul El-Sayed, [29:38]
• Stevens concedes and urges Democrats to unite against the GOP.

Kyle Kondik (Sabato’s Crystal Ball)

• Polls skewed expectations high for El-Sayed—historic win anyway for a progressive in MI, but closure margin suggests caution about the “wave” narrative.
  • "If you told me like two months ago that El Said won this primary by a point, I'd say hey, that's pretty impressive performance for progressive candidate..." – Kyle Kondik, [31:59]
  • “Probably Stevens would have been the safer general election candidate. El-Sayed... is more left-wing, a factional candidate.”

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8. Big-Picture Analysis—Is It a National Movement?

[33:35–39:30]

• Kyle: Progressive wins are growing, but there are still limits (Bell vs. Bush in MO).
• Cautions against reading too much into any single race; national “Tea Party moment” question for the Democrats lingers.
• Michigan’s 7th and Virginia’s 2nd Congressional races highlighted as bellwthers for November.
• DCCC’s big House map push is ambitious but challenging; wave environments can produce surprise flips, but Republicans have structural advantages in deep-red seats.
  • "Districts where Trump won by more than 10 points, they may be able to win a few... but you probably won't expect them to win a lot of them." – Kyle Kondik, [38:14]

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Notable Quotes & Moments

• Abdul El-Sayed on Party Unity:
  "Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the US Senate." [07:31]

• Lara Brown on Intra-Party Fights:
  "We are in a completely normal cycle. When parties lose a presidency, they spend the next midterm cycle... having factional disputes..." [08:45]

• Rick Davis on Political Movement:
  "You better start sweating bullets. When... it's a dead heat in the Senate [in Texas], you better start sweating bullets." [20:42]

• Jeannie Shan Zaino on the Upshot:
  "This is a big win for progressives. And of course, it wasn't just El Sayed..." [19:10]

• Kyle Kondik on the Bigger Picture:
  "I do think the progressives are on the rise... I think that it is possible that these candidates will underperform. It is possible that they might kick away winnable races for Democrats, but I wouldn't just necessarily take it for granted that they will." [34:38]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• [02:00] — Kate Sullivan on Hormuz deal details
• [05:19] — Economic anxiety, focus on affordability
• [06:50] — Michigan primary called; El-Sayed’s win
• [07:31] — El-Sayed’s message to supporters
• [08:45] — Lara Brown on factions/2026 as a “normal” cycle
• [10:34] — Local vs. national factors in result interpretations
• [12:53] — Max Miller scandal, party response
• [16:36] — Recap of El-Sayed’s campaign priorities
• [17:46] — El-Sayed on refusing corporate contributions
• [19:10] — Jeannie Shan Zaino: poll expectations misled narratives
• [20:42] — Rick Davis on polarization/money’s limits
• [23:01] — Rogers’ vulnerabilities in the general election
• [25:00] — Senate math and Michigan’s importance
• [26:17] — DCCC’s expanded House map
• [29:03] — Vote totals; reactions from Stevens & El-Sayed
• [31:59] — Kyle Kondik: expectations and Michigan’s “strange” race
• [34:38] — Trend toward the left in Democratic primaries; limits to progressives’ advantages
• [38:14] — DCCC’s ambitious targets, competitive districts

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Summary

In the wake of Abdul El-Sayed’s narrow but symbolically potent victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, this episode of Balance of Power scrutinizes whether this outcome marks a genuine shift in Democratic Party politics or is simply an isolated case in a turbulent year. Analysts debate the effectiveness of campaign spending, the true strength of the progressive movement, and the strategic dangers and opportunities for both parties as November approaches. Nuanced, data-driven, and peppered with pointed quotes from insiders and candidates, this episode is crucial listening for anyone tracking the 2026 midterm landscape and the future of American progressivism.

Transcript

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[Joe]

That headline out of Iranian media that says Iran is saying that the new Hor Hormuz routes will be valid for two to four months, so only a temporary period of time. Iran also saying that this new deal with Oman will close temporary Hormuz shipping route. So this is not abundantly clear if this is exclusively a deal between Iran and Oman to open more passageways in the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, or if there is to be some role that the United States will play in this. As you mentioned, Joe, that is what President Trump suggested. It's just not what we're hearing from the other side.

Well, that's right when you consider his language of yesterday. Talks are moving along very nicely. US and Iran. He said we'll know in 48 hours. Then Axio says it could come as soon as today, but that is apparently a deal to control traffic in the strait between Iran and Oman. It is unclear where the US Factors in here. Maybe Kate Sullivan can help us out as we bring you live to the White House right now. Kate is our White House correspondent live on the North Lawn. Can you shed some light on this, Kate? We're waiting for an announcement on an agreement, but with whom?

[Kate Sullivan]

There are a lot of questions as you just pointed out. But the president is saying that a deal could be announced as soon as today. Now this would be a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. And Axios is saying that it would be a 60 day agreement that would focus on reopening the strait, allowing ships to pass through, as you mentioned, the different lanes. One would be controlled by Oman, another would would go on Iran's border. There are still a lot of questions and this this reportedly also look at resuming the cease fire between the US And Iran. It also would reportedly meet some of Iran's demands and give them greater control over the strait. That's a very critical point because before the US And Israel started this war, this was a completely open international waterway. It was not controlled by any one country. Iran did not have control over the strait like they will reportedly under this new deal. But negotiations are still ongoing. The President is saying that it could come as soon as today, but also saying, as you pointed out, that we'll know more in the next 48 hours. So suggesting that details are still being worked out, the situation is still fluid, negotiations are still ongoing. I think it's also important to note what this deal is not and it is not a broad lasting peace agreement. It does not end the war. It's not a nuclear deal with Iran. And on the nuclear point, that point is very important because this is why the President said he started this war with Iran in the first place, to make sure that Iran did not get a nuclear weapon. So this deal is not focused on Iran's nuclear deal, though it could start, it could create the conditions to start negotiations on this nuclear deal. But this is very narrowly focused right now on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. And of course, Joe and Kelly, we've seen many times over the last six months that a deal has been reached or a deal has been imminent only for talks to fall apart and strikes to resume.

[Lara Brown]

Yep.

[Joe]

There is a pattern here of the President projecting and claiming one thing and it not coming to fruition, just as he always, as you were alluding to Kate, consistently says Iran can never have a nuclear weapon. I would imagine we'll hear much the same from him this evening or this afternoon when he speaks in Nevada. What else are we expecting him to focus on?

[Kate Sullivan]

That's right. So the President is expected to give remarks in just a few hours in Las Vegas. It's part of this two day swing in California and Nevada. The White House says that the President is going to focus on the economy and try and focus on tax policies and trying to draw a contrast between his administration's policies and Democrats. But of course, it's the President and the speech could end up being, could end up going any which way. We'll see if we get a deal, some kind of a deal with Iran and if the President speaks specifically on Iran. But one thing about Las Vegas, I remember I was at the rally a few years ago where the President unveiled this proposal for no tax on tips. It's something that he talks about a lot. Of course, he talks about his tax policies and, and I expect to hear more from him touting no tax on tips. But this swing out in the west is really focus is partly on fundraising and also on shoring up support with voters, with Republicans, people who are feeling a lot of economic anxiety at the mom, really feeling the ripple effects from the war, high gas prices, high grocery prices. So this trip is also focused, of course, on the critical November midterm elections and trying to really boost support ahead of those.

[Joe]

A gallon of gas in the state of Nevada is $4.80, Kate, in California, where the president was last evening and waking up this morning $5.63 a gallon, we know California is an outlier. The national average, though, is still over $4. Will the President speak of affordability? I know he doesn't like that word, but while he's talking about no tax on tips, gas prices are essentially making that irrelevant because we're putting all of the proceeds in the gas tank.

[Kate Sullivan]

Absolutely. It's definitely something that is harder and harder for the president and the White House to ignore. You know, the president, when he talks about affordability, he talks about it as a sort of made up thing that Democrats are focused on in their messaging while also trying to, you know, we've, we've reported many times over the last several months that the White House is very eager to really shift the focus and focus on affordability. They want to shift the focus away from the war in Iran and try to really hammer home messages on the economy, on trying to make people's lives more affordable and trying to bring prices down and bring inflation down. So we don't have a readout of the speech yet, but there are, of course, the contours of the speech that we can imagine just heading into the November midterm elections and, and the kind of points, we know, the kind of points that the White House hopes the president focuses on. It's, we will see whether the president really focuses on that very disciplined economic message out there.

[Joe]

Indeed we will.

[Podcast Host / Announcer]

All right.

[Joe]

Kate Sullivan reporting live from the North Lawn of the White House. Thank you so much. Of course, as we mentioned a few minutes ago, something else we could hear from the president about this evening is the results from the primary in Michigan, the Democratic senatorial primary specifically, which was a very tight race between Abdul El Sayed and Congresswoman Haley Stevens. In the end, it wasn't necessarily expected to be and yet it wasn't formally called by outlets until this morning. As of last night, they were still waiting. And this was their messaging. We knew that this was going to be a close race and that's exactly what we've got, a close race.

[Abdul El Sayed]

To all of our supporters here tonight, watching on TV tomorrow, we begin to mend fences. Whatever happens tonight, we have a responsibility to assure that we unite to make sure that Mike Rogers never sees the inside of the US Senate.

[Joe]

President Donald Trump calling Abdul Al Said, whose voice you just heard last, the victor in this, a communist loser who hates Jews in Israel, said as usual, polls were way off on this one. She referring to Haley Stevens, who he called a socialist in this post was not expected to do nearly as well as she did. Now the Democrats crazy policies will only get worse. So joining us now with more reaction to this is Lara Brown, political scientist and also author of the forthcoming book Jefferson's Landmark the Politics of the Louisiana Purchase. Laura, welcome back to BALANCE OF Power. We should point out that Haley Stevens is not a socialist and Abdullah Sayed is not a communist, though he is notably further left than Stevens was and he's now going to be the general election candidate. How steep is his uphill climb if he wants to beat Mike Rogers?

[Lara Brown]

Well, I think there's an over emphasis on sort of the difference between these candidates and what the fall campaign is going to shape up to be about. Because at the end of the day, what we have is a president with historically poor approval ratings and there is a high disapproval approval level in Michigan. And so it's going to be a race really between the Democratic senatorial candidate and the Republican senatorial candidate. It is not necessarily going to be a discussion about the finite policy differences within or among Democrats. And let me just say sort of at the outset, we are in a completely normal cycle. When parties lose a presidency, they spend the next midterm cycle essentially having factional disputes and contests where their different ideological wings are looking to gain prominence. And what you'll see is that this debate over which direction the Democratic Party goes in be settled until they choose a presidential nominee in 2028.

[Joe]

So who's leading in that internal contest? Lara Brown. We see William Lawrence last evening, founder of the Sunrise Movement, defeating two moderate candidates. That's still in Michigan. This is the 7th district to compete with Congressman Tom Barrett in the general election. Then again, we saw Representative Wesley Bell beat Cori Bush.

[Rick Davis]

Again.

[Joe]

Is there actually a narrative here or is this something that is trying to connect the dots on?

[Lara Brown]

I actually don't think there is a narrative. I think what we are going to see is a lot of candidates appealing to local concerns and the one major concern out there is the economy, and people are feeling the pinch of higher gas prices. They are displeased with, with the, you know, inflation rate. You also have the issue of the war. And certainly for those in Michigan, tariffs on Canada have been a blow to their economy. So there are a lot of reasons to reject, essentially the president's party and his candidates. You also have a gubernatorial candidate in Jocelyn Benson, who won a very large, you know, Democratic primary race. And she is going to be sort of campaigning statewide at the same time that EL Sayed is. And I think what you'll see is how much they are able to galvanize the Michigan Democratic Party and those independents displeased with the Trump administration to push them over the top.

[Joe]

Well, so when we consider then where those independents are going to go, Lara, I wonder how, how you view the available share of votes. This is a conversation we were having in 2024 as well. How is it shaping up in 2026 as we consider the ultimate balance of congressional power?

[Lara Brown]

Well, I think what we have to do is look back at an analog 20076 looks a lot like what we are seeing. A historically unpopular president, an unpopular war, issues of personal scandals and also public corruption. All of those things are kind of combining to have the Democrats with a solid, you know, north of 6 percentage point advantage on the generic ballot and a very large disapproval rating of the president, which puts him on the ballot even though he is not.

[Joe]

I'd like to ask you about something that's taking place here in Washington among members already elected. We heard from Chuck Edwards in the middle of the night. Larry was about 330 in the morning, the Republican from North Carolina announcing he's dropping his reelection bid following a House Ethics Committee report that recommended he be censured. There's still a huge question over Max Miller, and I'm wondering your thoughts on this because the congressman is pointing to Speaker Johnson and the president saying, nobody's asked me to bow out over what are very serious domestic abuse allegations. We know that the speaker has a very thin margin to protect. But I'm wondering your thoughts on how this might resolve. Does Max Miller need to step down on his own or be forced out?

[Lara Brown]

So, having written both a dissertation on congressional scandals and published subsequently on sex scandals, I can tell you that really what is happening and what has always happened is that partisans rally around their tainted member, and it's very rare that they push them out. And the only time that they really do is when they think that that reputational taint will, in fact, sort of infect the rest of the party brand. So the real question is how high a profile do these allegations against Max Miller continue to become and whether or not Johnson feels that it is now important for him to distance his conference from this representative. We saw this obviously, with the Democrats with issues that they had. So it is a question of how bad does it look, not necessarily how bad are the allegations.

[Joe]

It's also striking to consider that it's not just about his House seat or the House. There's also a gubernatorial race and a Senate race in Ohio in which Republicans may be concerned about the blowback as well.

Yeah, this is quite a.

[Lara Brown]

That's right. Just going back to 2006.

[Rick Davis]

Yeah.

[Joe]

30 seconds, Lara.

Sure.

[Lara Brown]

If you look at 2006, we saw both Tom Delay and Bob Neymar run for their primaries, win their primaries, and then resign before the general elections because both had corruption issues with then lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

[Joe]

Tom delay, Reference we're hitting it all today. Lara Brown, thank you so much. It's great to see you political scientists. The book again, Jefferson's landmark deal. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe]

Thank you all for joining us on Bloomberg TV and radio for this Wednesday edition of Balance of Power. It's also the day after edition of Tuesday's primaries and in Michigan specifically, where so many people were focused for a directional cue as to where the Democratic Party is going in this midterm cycle and beyond. It's unclear whether they got a clear narrative in the outcome of the Michigan senatorial primary because, yes, Abdul Al Said, who, of course is the more progressive candidate who was in the race, did best the congresswoman Haley Stevens, seen as more of a moderate, but it was tight. We're talking about a 1% difference as the votes were, were all counted. I'll say it. Of course, being more progressive, being described by President Trump today as a communist, which he is not, but he did run on a very consistent message. If you're not like us here, on balance of power, having to listen to all the politics podcasts and having to watch all the advertisements, he basically said three things over and over and over again. Money out of politics, money in your pocket, Medicare for all. And he actually joined this program last year, it was May 2025, in which he talked about that notion of getting money out of polit and getting corporate contributions out of politics specifically.

[Abdul El Sayed]

Listen, the big difference with me is just that I don't take corporate contributions for a reason because I think that Donald Trump is actually just the symptom of a far bigger disease. And that disease is the politics that have been dominated by corporate interests and frankly the interests of billionaires. And I think that has led us to a system where the economy doesn't work for working people, where we can't guarantee people health care, where our air, water and soil get corrupted by the interests of a few very, very large corpor corporations, I think we can do better Indeed.

[Joe]

More than $50 million was spent on behalf of Haley Stevens in this campaign. AIPAC put up a lot of that money, as did the establishment Democratic Party here in Washington. We assembled our political panel to do some forensic investigating on how this all happened and why it was so close. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shan Zaino and Rick Davis are with us. Jeannie is our Democratic Analyst democracy visiting fello fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. Rick is a partner at Stone Court Capital and our Republican strategist. And Jeannie, I'll start with you here. Your thoughts on this. If you read the tip sheets this morning, you can find a couple saying this was a huge night for progressives in the state of Michigan and around the country. Others said it was a terrible night because he only won by one point. How should we be looking at this?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, and I think a lot of that had to do with expectations. You know, and I say this with a lot of love to all my friends who are upholstered pollsters. I'm a pollster myself. But the polls by and large were way, way off. I mean, showing huge double digit leads for Al Syed and of course it was nothing like that. And we didn't even know until this morning who had been named the winner. So, you know, I think a lot of that had to do with expectations because if we take a step Back and last year when he was on balance of power and he was talking, I think none of us would have said that he would have had a chance to become nominee of the Democratic Party in Michigan given how progressive he has been described and how progressive he describes himself. So this is a big win for progressives. And of course, it wasn't just El sayed you had other wins for progressives in Michigan as well. So all in all, a big night for progressives. But of course, that said, he's got a ton of work to do starting this morning if he is going to beat Mike Rogers. And that is going to be an uphill battle in a state as moder and purple and swingy as Michigan.

[Joe]

Well, if there is a lot of work to do, Rick, one would think that that means there's a lot of money to be spent. But have we learned a bit of a lesson here around the efficacy of money? As Joe mentioned, the money was on the side of Haley Stevens here and she did not come out victorious.

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, Haley Stevens and company spent what, 10 times more than else I had even raised. So it was a real referendum on the fact that money doesn't buy votes. But that being said, it was a lot closer. As Jeannie said, we both predicted yesterday that you can't watch Michigan polling because it's notoriously bad. Well, we were proven right and feel good about that. But look, I mean, this is a migration of the Democratic Party, just like there's a migration to the right on the Republican Party. I mean, like it's undeniable. There's a movement to the left and Republicans are moving toward the right. That's why we have this thing called maga. And so this is just a natural occurrence and we're going to see it play out in other states. But at the end of the day, the question is, can Al Assad win a statewide race? And when you look at the number of things that are happening on the ground in these elections, and there were a bunch yesterday on referendums that show large blue participation in the elections. And that should send shockwaves up Republicans right now. Because when you've got races like in Texas where Trump won by 14% and it's a dead heat in the Senate, you better start sweating bullets. Wow.

[Joe]

Well, you know, I'd offer what happened in Missouri last evening as well, Jeannie. This was a rematch between Representative Wesley Bell and Cori Bush, who is coming back in an attempt to return to Congress. AIPAC put $2 million into Bell's reelection campaign. And Wesley Bell won again. Is the national trend to go left or to simply be more involved?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

You know, I think we're seeing it depends on the district, it depends on the state. And of course, I just want to underscore candidates matter an awful lot. And so you're absolutely right.

[The Hartford / Advertisement Voice]

Right.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Bell reelect, you know, nominated again by his party to hold his seat if he can. You know, on the Michigan side, you see somebody like El Sayed versus a candidate and Haley Stevens who for all her gifts was unable to translate that, her establishment support and her money into a win there. And I think this is the challenge that Republicans face. In addition to the historical wave that we will likely see that's turning blue and to the enthusiasm Rick was talking about on the Democratic side. It's also the issue of Rogers himself as a candidate. We heard today El Sayed say, come on, let's have five debates. I'm asking, I want an answer today. As far as I know, Rogers has an answer. He's talking about Rogers living in Florida. Rogers had a really strange interview with Semaphore the other day when after repeated questions about national issues views, he kept deferring and saying, oh no, I don't want to talk about that. This is a local race. Well, he's not running for mayor, he's running for senator. And this is a guy with foreign policy chops. And is he going to hug Donald Trump or move away from him? He was bested by Cash Patel to be FBI director for Donald Trump this time around. Hard to run away from that. So all of these things make it really difficult for Rogers in a time when we're seeing this blue wave. But of course they're going to try to paint Al Said as they this communist socialist, very left wing figure. And based on what I heard today when he came out, he's going to push back hard on those suggestions and try to get Democrats who he lost to Stevens on board with him. So it's going to be quite a race. But I don't think we're seeing one direction or another for Democrats. It depends on the state and the district and where voters find themselves.

[Joe]

Well, understanding that this may be a state by state case as we look, look toward November, Rick, when we consider the path that the narrow one that Democrats have to try to get the Senate majority, is there any realistic path that does not include retaining a blue seat in Michigan? Do you see a world in which they could maybe lose Michigan but would pick up the other five necessary to flip the chamber?

[Rick Davis]

I think it's very hard. I think they've got to retain that seat. I think that you could make some kind of an academic argument based on the cycle, based on the energy, things like that that they could pick up for. But finding that fifth seat if they had to would be incredibly difficult. And I would say the one thing I would disagree with Jeannie a little bit on, and I'm giving the Democrats more credit than they probably deserve, is I think this is a national thing. I don't think this is state by state. I think what you see happening in Michigan, same thing is happening in places like Missouri and Kansas and Texas and Ohio and places like that where Democrats are totally overperforming Harris on the ballot and Republicans are, well underperforming Trump from the 2024 ballot. And that is an elixir for a national movement. And if this gets caught up in that, then anything goes. But I think the Democrats have to look at this Michigan seat and say we have to go all in on El Said. We have to make sure he wins. Republicans, we have a vulnerable Republican who lost by 2% in a good year for Republicans. Now it's a bad year for Republicans. We ought to be able to beat the guy. So we'll see. I mean, it'll be interesting to see if El Said cooperates with that, moves to the center a little bit.

[Joe]

Well, if we pull out the lens here, Democrats are feeling pretty good about things, it seems. Jeannie, as I look at the latest from the dccc, this is of course the campaign committee that gets Democrats elected to the house 90 days out from the midterms. It says as D Trip announces latest expansion of the House battlefield for the cycle, they've added 12 more names to make a total of 58 as Democrats go on offense. I've got to be honest though, some of these names you wouldn't expect to see on a list like this. Jeannie, Lauren Boebert, Victoria Sparks, okay, but French Hill, the chairman of House Financial Services from Arkansas, Mike Flood of Nebraska, Nick LaLota of New York, these are all flippable.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

You know, I don't think all of them are, but I do think it is a sign that Democrats understand the environment they are in. And if it hadn't been for the mid decade redistricting, if it hadn't been for these, if it's not for these threats from Donald Trump about muddying the waters with voters lists and other things, then they should have a huge pickup this year given the president's numbers on the economy alone. You know, you look back you know, a president who is at 37, 38% overall and approval on the economy 32, 33, 34 depending on the polls, it's very hard for his party to do well. But given, as I mentioned, the way these district looks, these districts look, it might be a little tougher than it has been in the past. But Joe, Rick Davis and the DCCC feeling good about the Democrats. So I'm in a good mood.

[Joe]

Rick Davis, our Republican strategist, and Jeannie Shan Zaino, our Democratic analyst on today's political panel. Thank you both so much for joining us. On Balance of Power.

Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe]

I would say that we're still counting votes in Michigan because they are. But it doesn't matter. The race is over here. Just over a point removing Abdul Al said from HALEY STEVENS Remarkable 48.5% to 47.5%. It's one point even. Actually with 99% of precincts counted, nobody's talking about a recount. Quite the contrary. We heard from Abdul El Sayed, the Democratic progressive who said he got a phone call from Haley Stevens pretty early on.

[Abdul El Sayed]

Listen, Haley brings the best of herself to her work. She is one of the most committed public servants that you'll ever meet meet. She loves democracy like I love democracy. And whatever differences that we might have had in the primary, they pale in comparison to what unifies us. A recognition that so long as we want to keep our democracy, that democracy better be working for people and that all of us have to come together to make sure that we never let Mike Rogers see the inside of the U.S. senate. So Congresswoman, thank you for your race.

[Joe]

Yeah, she called to concede and issued a statement. Haley Stevens, no stranger to this broadcast, I want to congratulate Abdul Al said on winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. senate. He's a doctor, a community health official, a Rhodes scholar and a dedicated Michigander. I'm proud to offer my support as he takes on Mike Rogers in the general election. Donald Trump and Mike Rogers. See how quick she tied the two together. Want us to come out of this primary tired and divided so their billionaire backers can come in, let multi millionaire Mike Rogers walk away with the Senate seat. She says they want to keep the Senate red so Mike Rogers can keep rubber stamping Donald Trump's harmful agenda. Some of that is true need to win Michigan if you're going to own the Senate. And that doesn't matter if you're a Democrat or a Republican. And of course you've heard the conventional wisdom here on Bloomberg that El Sayed is a weaker general election candidate. That Haley Stevens, if she only had that missing point, would be more likely to bring Michigan home to Democrats in the fall or keep it home as the case may be. We're going to dig into this and a couple of the other races from an important primary night now with Kyle Condike. Let's talk to an expert. We go to school with the professor who's managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia center for Politics. Kyle, it's great to see you on the day after here. Thank you for joining us. A lot of folks, it's really amazing to see how now this was reflected in media reporting here this morning. Cuz I woke up to as many headlines in the tip sheet saying it was a big night for progressives. Changing the face of the Democratic Party to those saying it was a disappointing night for progressives. He only got it out with one point and it was supposed to be a double digit blowout. Kyle, how are you looking at this specifically Senate primary in Michigan?

[Kyle Condike]

Yeah, I think expectations got out of whack because the polling ended up being sort of out of whack. And I think one thing that may have been going on here is that you know, primary electorates are generally, generally skew, even older than general election electorates. And there was some, some sense that maybe pollsters were showing an electorate that was, that was maybe younger than what we ultimately got last night. I think if you told me like two months ago that El Said won this primary by a point, I'd say hey, that's pretty impressive performance for progressive candidate. I think, you know, if you look at it more recently and you know, El Sayed himself and his allies kind of, kind of punched out or you know, kind of, kind of overinflated his chances by putting out a lot of polls showing him doing quite well. You could then say, well, I guess compared to the, you know, the expectations as of a few days ago or as of yesterday, Elsa had sort of underperformed. So it's kind of a, just kind of a strange expectations thing. I do think probably Stevens was, this would have been the safer choice for Democrats, although she didn't exactly like the world on fire in her own campaign. And just in terms of candidate skills, I think El Said was probably stronger, but he's also definitely a more kind of factional, clearly left wing candidate. And you know, in a swing state race, you'd probably have someone who's, you'd probably rather have someone who's perceived as closer to the center. So I think El Said probably will underperform what you might expect a generic Democrat, although there's no such thing as an actual, you know, generic Democrat or Republican. But in a year like this, even if he does underperform, that's, that still may not prevent him from winning, given that this is a Democratic leaning year.

[Joe]

Well, that's fascinating to hear. You know, the president weighed in last evening. I'm not sure he even knew who was running this. I can't understand what it says. Great news for the Republican Party and I get the spirit of that. El Sayed, a communist loser, he writes, who hates Jews in Israel, is the projected winner in his race with the socialist. I thought he was projecting. I'll say it as a. So I guess he means Haley Stevens was as usual, the polls were way off on this one. She was not expected to do nearly as well as she did. Are we talking about I don't know what now the Democrats crazy policies he says will only get worse. Let's forget because I don't even understand where we're going in that post for a minute, Kyle, the conventional wisdom that not only is El Sayed a weaker general election candidate, but that the Democratic Party is having, having this massive internal fight with socialism and communism. Does this race represent that or is this a single race story?

[Kyle Condike]

I do think there's a trend, you know, I think over the summer, kind of going into a lot of the primary season, the thought was, well, you know, is there is. Are the Democrats actually going through, you know, their own kind of Tea Party moment that Republicans went through and arguably are still going through, you know, 15 years ago after Barack Obama got elected, the initial results from primaries were kind of mixed earlier this year. I do Think the results from the summer do point to kind of a growing strength for kind of more left wing anti establishment forces within the Democratic Party. You know, that doesn't mean that, that the left wing candidates are always going to win these races. You know, another result last night was Representative Wesley Bell in Missouri's first District. He, he won pretty comfortably against Cori Bush, who's a more left wing candidate who, who Bell unseated in 2024 and then he won his rematch easily. So again, you're not going to see this consistent result in every single race. But again, I do think the progressives are on the rise. Another race that's worth noting is Michigan's 7th congressional district, which is one of the most competitive US House seats in the whole country. Held by Republican Tom Barrett. District centered on Lansing in Michigan State University and then some more conservative turf around it and sort of the middle or middle of Michigan, William Lawrence, who's a progressive candidate, he ended up winning against two kind of more establishment oriented Democrats. And you know, again, you look at Lawrence winning, you look at El said winning, I think that it is possible that these candidates will underperform. It is possible that they might kick away winnable races for Democrats, but I wouldn't just necessarily take it for granted that they will.

[Joe]

William Lawrence, a co founder of the Sunrise Movement, as it's called. I'm glad you mentioned him because a big part of his platform was opposition to data center development which I know is landing to some extent in your state and my state of Virginia. And I should ask you about Virginia's second Congressional because this is a different storyline but an important race here with Jen Kaggins, Republican and former Congresswoman Elaine Luria in a rematch here, it looks like this is Virginia beach, one of the most competitive in the state. What's got your attention there?

[Kyle Condike]

Yeah, I mentioned Michigan 7 is one of the sort of the, you know, best swing districts in the country. Virginia two is another, another one of those districts. You know, there are only maybe two dozen or less districts in the whole country that really voted very similarly to how this, how the nation voted for president in, in 2024. Michigan seven is one. Virginia two is another. Virginia two is another toss up race. You know, again, again, at the end of the day you'd probably expect Democrats to flip Virginia too if they're winning the House. But if they don't, and that'll be a race to watch early on election night. You know, just like in Virginia when Abigail Spanberger won reelection in 2022, it was a sign that the Republicans maybe weren't getting the kind of wave that they were hoping for in 2022. And you know, Virginia 2 will be another really key race to watch along with, along with Michigan 7, which we were talking about earlier here.

[Joe]

I want to ask you about this new map, an expanded map from the DCCC as we describe these races in detail. Let's go broad here for a moment because the D trip just added 12 Republican held districts to its battle map, bringing the target list up to 58 seats. And it's put some recognizable names here in the crosshairs. Lauren Boebert, Victoria Sparks, French Hill, Tony Gonzalez. What do you make of this expanding map? Mike Flood is on here. Kyle, is this realistic?

[Kyle Condike]

The districts that the D trip recognized today or put out today, you know, that's a mix of districts that I, some of them I still call a safe Republican in our ratings. Some of them we have is likely Republican. You know, we actually moved Boebert onto our board is likely Republican last week, although that's a district that a Republican should, should definitely be able to win even in a wave environment. But I mean, we have seen this dynamic in which like for instance, there was a Democratic poll in Virginia too, which we were just talking about, that was tied. And so that, that, you know, Democratic internal poll, that's actually a good result for Republicans. On the other hand, the Democrats have been releasing polls across the country in districts that aren't at the center of the battlefield that, that show pretty competitive results. And I think that's reflected in the DCCC trying to cast a wide net. You know, in 2018, when Democrats flipped the House, they won, they didn't win all of the sort of battleground seats, but they won almost all of them, a lion's share of them. 2006, when Democrats flipped the House, the Republicans actually held up pretty well in some of the, some of the key battleground races that year. But Democrats ended up flipping a lot of kind of surprising seats and maybe, you know, maybe Democrats will be able to do that to some extent. But you know, districts where Trump won by more than 10 points, they may be able to win a few of those races, but you probably won't expect them to win a lot of them.

[Joe]

Kyle Condike, great insights. Nick Lalota's on here is Suffolk county going Democrat. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime Eastern.

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