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- [00:00]
Host/Announcer
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- [01:05]
Joe
It is, if you're still keeping track, day 35 of the government shutdown, which means we've matched the longest of all time and I'm pretty sure they're not going to figure it out today, so we'll set another all time, all time in the next 24 hours. The House has been out of session for 46 days and none of that seems to matter too much to people who who are focused on elections in New York, Virginia, New Jersey, also the Prop 50 in California that we're going to be following here. Going to start in New York, of course, and we've got the best of Bloomberg in the field today, are going to be bringing us to ground in the states that we're talking about, talking geography, talking campaigns, voter turnout and what we should watch tonight when we're bringing you special coverage on Bloomberg Radio to start in New York, of course, where the Democratic message and the trajectory of the party appears to be very much on the line here. As the self described Democratic Socialist Zoran Mamdani cruises to an expected win, Republicans have seized on this moment starting all the way at the top with President Donald Trump to try to frame rhetorically what is happening here in Manhattan and what might take place if he's elected. Here's the President. Listen, you have a communist running and.
- [02:18]
Rick Davis
You shouldn't vote for him. He's a disaster. You know, he's running against the communists. Think that he would have a good shot of winning. He's a Communist. I don't think our country is ready for a Communism. I'd prefer not to have a Communist.
- [02:31]
Terry McAuliffe
Mayor of New York City and you.
- [02:35]
Rick Davis
Know, that's what he is based on his policy. Democrats have become radical left lunatics. They have policies that nobody's going to buy. And you know, I see what's going on in New York. We're going, we're going to have a perhaps a communist mayor. It's not even believable.
- [02:50]
Joe
My beautiful New York, the president working overtime to frame the nominee as a communist. And we've heard this from a lot of Republicans on the program. It's where we start our conversation with our reporting now. And Miles Miller joining us, Bloomberg News senior reporter from Brooklyn, where he's been out early and often here covering this race. Miles, tell us what's on the line.
- [03:13]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah, I spoke with Zoram Hamdani this morning in Queens after he cast his ballot. And I said, if you were to win tonight, what would you expect the margin to be to say that you would have a mandate? And he said a victory is a mandate enough. So that's how he's going into this election day. Of course, the polls are open and they will remain open until 9 this evening. And people have already started casting their ballots early. Right. They started the early voting two weeks ago, 730,000 people participating in this race. And it's become a race that has really been shaped by three main things. The candidates affordability, messaging, the public safety messaging and then also ideology. Right. You've got New Yorkers who feel that they've been priced out. You've got the New Yorkers who want a little bit more when it comes to childcare. And then you've got the push to hire more cops. And then folks on either side of that aisle. And then you have the folks who believe that this is a race that is much different than there has ever been in New York. If Zoran Mamdani is to win, he'd be the first Muslim and for South Asian mayor in New York City. And there has been a lot of criticism about some of the messaging that he has said in the past few years saying globalize, intifada, Andrew Cuomo making the effort to connect that to anti Semitism. But then Mamdani has said that that is that he is not anti Semitic, but that there has been a lot of Islamophobia in this race. Taken together, this is a race that does not feel very t. The latest polling shows Mamdani with a pretty commanding lead. And as I said at the outset, this will really be focused on just how big the margin is. And if he has that mandate to pursue some of these really progressive proposals. You know, I was looking at some of the reporting from 2013 when a tall guy named Bill de Blasio won the mayoralty back in 2013. And in one of the last paragraphs of the piece, it basically said the same thing that it says about Mamdani's race right now, that he was able to really push through and get the message across about income inequality and about affordability and that that really set him apart from his other candidates. The other candidates are running basically a race that is focused on public safety, but nothing really compared to the free buses, the free childcare and the taxes on the wealthy.
- [05:59]
Joe
Miles, thank you so much. We're going to be back to Miles Miller a little bit later on in the reporting on the New York mayoral race with some big endorsements that have emerged in the last 24 hours. We talked about Donald Trump yesterday, not really a formal endorsement, but in his 60 Minutes interview, add Elon Musk and last night, even Stephen Miller trying to point Republican voters to Andrew Cuomo and defeat Zoran Mamdani. Polymarket right now gives mom Donnie a 95% chance of victory. Let's skip across the river right now where Bloomberg's Romaine Bostick is covering the gubernatorial race in New Jersey, remembering Democrat Mikey Sherrill against Republican Jack Cittarelli and what we are told, Romaine in a recent poll is a one point race. What are you seeing there?
- [06:45]
Romaine Bostick
Yeah, it's gotten a lot closer. If you go back just a few weeks, Mikey Sheryl actually had a double digit percentage point lead in the polls or in most polls, I should say, over Jack Cittarelli, her Republican challenger. However, that has narrowed considerably over the last few weeks. Emerson out with its latest poll showing a 2 percentage point lead by Mikey Sheryl and most of the other polls are in basically a 1 to 5 percentage point range. Right now with Sheryl up ahead. And remember, that is with not only within the margin of error, but you're talking about a state, Joe, that despite the sort of reputation for being a Democratic state, only about 38% of the voters of the registered voter here are Democrat, about 25% Republicans, about 35% independents. And those are the ones that are really going to potentially call this election. Those are the voters that Jack Cittarelli has been courting hard. He's also spent a lot of time in some of the Democratic strongholds here, including where I'm standing here in Jersey City. He spent some time this weekend in what is not only an overwhelmingly Democratic city, but probably one of the most diverse cities in the entire country. He spent a lot of time at some of the churches while with predominantly black and Latino members. And he is really making a big push to convince those folks that the last four of a Democratic governor under Phil Murphy did not serve them well and that their fortunes would somehow improve under a Republican administration led by him.
- [08:08]
Joe
Really interesting, Romaine. New Jersey has not voted for a Republican president in more than 30 years, has not voted for a Republican senator in more than 50 years. To what extent would this test history, knowing as well that New Jersey has a reputation for toggling between Democrats and Republicans at the top?
- [08:28]
Romaine Bostick
Well, if you want to answer to that, I think all you have to do is look right now at the rnc. You go back four years ago when Jack Cittarelli ran for governor. Remember, this is the third time that he's run for governor here. He did not get a lot of support from the federal level from meaning the national Republican Party in terms of money or even just visibility. And that has changed in a big way. Even though Donald Trump himself has not physically been on the campaign trail with Citarella, a lot of his surrogates have shown up with him. A lot of the Republican members of Congress have been a lot of members of the RNC and elsewhere have been out here as well and they funneled a lot of cash to his campaign. They look to what Donald Trump did over the last few years, losing to Biden four years ago by a 16 point margin but then losing to Kamala Harris just last year by only a 5 percentage point margin. And that has a lot of Republicans in Washington thinking that maybe, just maybe they can even flip this state when we get to the next presidential election in three years.
- [09:26]
Joe
That would be something. Romain, really glad you're out there for us. And we'll be checking back in with Romaine Bostic throughout the day and throughout the evening with special election coverage starting at 5pm Eastern Time, an extended edition of Balance of Power. On the late side, I do want to mention quickly as we throw the full resources of Bloomberg News at covering this election today, we've still got our eyes on the Shutdown. And the FAA has just issued a ground stop at Washington D.C. 's national airport. It is over security that we're being told this is part of the cascade of delays and cancellations that we've seen at a number of airports across the country. This shut down is now 35 days old, matching the all time tomorrow will be in record territory. In fact, for a full shutdown as opposed to a partial one. We're already there. Let's keep it in New York as we're going to talk to Cliff Young next about his polling on not necessarily these races, but the factors that are driving decisions, beginning with cost. Zoran Mamdani was on MSNBC earlier today. He was on Morning Joe and asked about claims of his communist affiliation, as we heard the president say repeatedly over the past couple of months. Here's what he said.
- [10:33]
Zoran Mamdani
What I actually find is that when you're speaking to New Yorkers, they ask you less how you describe your politics and more whether there's room for them in that politics. And New Yorkers are asking me, does your politics have room for my struggle to afford my rent, my childcare, my groceries? And frankly, President Trump ran an entire campaign focusing on the cost of living, focusing on the promise of cheaper groceries. And his inability to do so is now making him increasingly desperate to try and stop the campaign that will actually deliver on the same diagnosis that he shared.
- [11:04]
Joe
Let's bring in Cliff Young, as I mentioned from ipsos, US Public affairs chair professor at Texas A and M University's Bush School of Government and Public Service. Cliff, it's great to see you. Your most recent round of polling started with a headline, the Calm before the Storm, Affordability and Elections. And it's remarkable to us to see the issue of cost and inflation prices that drove Donald Trump back into the White House, the same one that will likely elect a democratic socialist here in Manhattan. Is that how you see it?
- [11:34]
Cliff Young
That's how we see it. And we always have to be careful, Joe, not to overly nationalize the elections. Indeed, when people go into the ballot box and they vote, they're thinking about their lives, their ability to make ends meet, to provide a good standard of living to their family. And that's what they're thinking about today, whether it be in New York or New Jersey or Virginia. Americans today are really worried about affordability, cost of living. Obviously, Donald Trump won on that issue in 2024, but the tariffs, and that's the storm that we talk about. They're beginning to rear their ugly head and Americans are worried about it.
- [12:18]
Joe
We've talked a lot about or asked a lot about Cliff, the Trump factor in all of the races today. He hasn't been terribly present, certainly didn't come personally to stump in New Jersey. He held some tele rallies last evening in Virginia, he didn't even mention the candidate's name. And winsome Earl Sears, to what extent are his approval numbers and policies like you just mentioned, his tariff policies on the ballot.
- [12:43]
Cliff Young
Yeah, I don't think we're even being in a very positive place that if Trump's approval ratings were 50 point plus, would he necessarily have a big impact on these elections? Indeed, as I was emphasizing, really people are worried about those very simple pocketbook issues. That's how you typically vote at the state and the local levels. Are the roads paved? Is my garbage being picked up? Can I afford things? Is let's say our tolls too expensive? These sort of bread and butter issues are what people are worried about and they're really worried about them today. Now, that's not to say that Trump isn't in a relative, relatively good position given everything his approval ratings are, let's say in the mid to low 40s. There's been some slippage over the last, let's say few months. That's mostly because of cost of living issues and the economy. But for the most part he's in a good place. But really voters are worried about again, how to get things along, how to take care of their families.
- [13:44]
Joe
It was a long time ago when James Carville said it was the economy, stupid. But that certainly turned out to be the case, Cliff. And I, I guess, do you see this as a world where the issue doesn't change, it remains cost when it comes to elections in the United States. But the political pendulum swings back and forth as people try to seek an answer.
- [14:01]
Cliff Young
I think it's a fair way to look at it. Obviously in a different scenario at a different moment in time. It could be national security, it could be terrorism, it could be immigration, for instance. But indeed that's how I would look at it, Joe, that really what we're seeing in once again New Jersey and Virginia and New York work, we're really seeing sort of the party out of power that's not responsible or doesn't own. The problem with affordability in a relatively better place than the incumbent party. And I would just emphasize there, I mean, Jersey is close. I would not be surprised if it flips that as it goes to the Republicans. We'll see. Obviously, I don't have a crystal ball, but all the indicators, especially the affordability indicators and matchups suggest that the Republicans in that state are in a better position than, than the Democrats.
- [14:47]
Joe
Let's talk shutdown. Cliff, you've got number out here on day 35. It's worth talking about, I guess the blame game because politicians all seem to think they're winning on both sides of the aisle. You're finding Blame for the government shutdown in fact remains split. Can you tell us more?
- [15:04]
Cliff Young
Yeah, no, there's two different ways to ask the question. Kind of ask, you know, President Trump, the Republicans in Congress, the Democrats in Congress. We ask independently, about two thirds of Americans blame each one equally once again. Now, if you put Republicans and Democrats, excuse me, Republicans and Trump against the Democrats, the Republicans together with Trump hold more of the blame than Democrats. It's about 45% versus 33. So, yes, it's a pox in all your houses. We've said that before. But if you're looking at the relative odds, Americans are seeing it being more of a red problem than a blue problem. But once again, it only will matter, really, if it impacts your pocketbook.
- [15:48]
Joe
There seems to be a sentiment out there that the government shutdown is just waiting for these elections to pass. We're going to be back open this weekend. Do you have any polling or have you seen any research that would indicate that the election itself is an inflection point in the shutdown?
- [16:04]
Cliff Young
Yeah, well, I don't know that, you know, the sort of, you know, the machinations of the politicking around the shutdown. It is a critical point. It's a point of reflection for both parties. They'll see sort of where they are. It's a relative gauge. Will it be an impetus to push it forward and ended or keep it going? Perhaps. But once again, the parties themselves will be looking at these elections through a national lens and this might have some sort of impact on the calculus.
- [16:34]
Joe
One state we haven't really talked about yet this hour, and we will more over the course of the program, is California. And what's happening with Prop 50 as a pollster, to what extent does this scramble the deck for you if we're redrawing congressional lines in a state that large, or as it looks like now, maybe as many as a half dozen states around the country.
- [16:52]
Cliff Young
That's a great question, Joe. I'm in the, in the midst of, we're in the midst of redoing our mid term models, our forecasting models, and it's a difficult one because we don't know what it will net out at. I mean, you have access on the one hand, you have states like California on the other. It's more of a wait and see. We'll have to adjust them accordingly. That said, it should be a Democratic year. Maybe it's more attenuated, but obviously there's a lot of road to toe before we get there.
- [17:22]
Joe
It's good to have you Cliff. Happy Election Day with us from Ipsos. Cliff Young, Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [17:33]
Host/Announcer
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- [18:25]
Rick Davis
Member FINRA and SIPC.
- [18:27]
Host/Announcer
Crypto trading provided by ZeroHash. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [18:50]
Joe
Keeping tabs on a series of races across the country. Here voters are fanning out and this is real. We spend months talking about this stuff and as our friend Rick Davis always says, the real poll is being held right now in places like New York, of course, New Jersey, Virginia. We've got Prop 50 we're tracking in California. But we want to start with our panel and I'm glad to say we've got them both with us today. Rick DAV and Jeannie Shann Zaino with the race in New York City. Zoran Mamdani answering the idea that there'll be an exodus from New York. The accusations from the president that he will destroy the city, that he will cause wealth to leave New York. Here's what he said on the stump this morning in response.
- [19:34]
Zoran Mamdani
I look forward to utilizing every single tool at my disposal as the next mayor of this city to fight for the people of it. That means using the courts. That means using the bully pulpit. That means ensuring that we actually fall the letter of the law. And I know that doing so is something that threatens Donald Trump. It's why he's gone after Attorney General James because she had the audacity to hold him to the same law that every New Yorker is held to. But I will not be intimidated by this president. I will not be intimidated by anyone because my job here is to serve the people of the city.
- [20:01]
Joe
Answering threats as well from the president that he'll pull federal funding from a city like New York. If a self described democratic socialist or as Donald Trump calls him, communist ends up running the city, let's get into it. They're both here. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shannon Zaino and Rick Davis. Jeannie is our Democratic Analyst Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is our Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capitol. And we could not have an election without both of them. Happy election day, Jeannie. Zoran Mamdani has managed to really work himself into quite a situation here. Polymarket says he's got 95% chance of winning running. He's got a lot of talent on the stump. He was very successful in navigating debates, interviews, being pithy. It's going to be a different job when he's running the city. Is he ready for it?
- [20:52]
Host/Announcer
Yeah, that's right. And happy election day. Joe and Rick I wouldn't spend it with anybody else if I had a choice and I have a choice. I love to be here with you. You know, I think this may be your last visit to New York City before the communist red descends on it. People are fleeing. This is what we're hear. And of course running is one thing, governing is something else. We haven't seen Mamdani do that in an executive role and there's a good deal of consternation in the Democratic Party in New York City, in New York State, in the country as to how he'll perform. So if he wins, we're going to be seeing that. But the reality is is that New York City is its own sort of Democratic primary. Today is the way I think about it. We are thinking about and seeing in real time time Democrats fight it out as to what the future of the party should be. It is a microcosm in that sense of the party, but it doesn't tell us, I don't think an awful lot as we will see in New Jersey and Virginia about where we sit in terms of the party versus the Republican Party. So I think it's going to be telling, but I don't think it is going to be. We're going to be able to extrapolate from that to the broader country as a whole.
- [22:10]
Joe
Is that how you're looking at this, Rick, that this is, is not so much a Democratic story, but a New York story?
- [22:15]
Romaine Bostick
Not really.
- [22:16]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
I think it's a little both. The reality is that Mamdani is redefining what it is to be a Democrat, whether the Democratic Party likes it or not. Right. And I don't think they like it, but he's the energy in the party right now. I mean, there's no question of everybody we're going to talk about today, you know, whether it's potentially a Democratic governor of Virginia, a Democratic governor of Jersey, Mandani is going to get at the lion's share of discussion as to what the future of the Democratic Party is going to be. And both those others are moderate Democrats. They're not getting any attention. Where's the respect to the moderates? And so the reality is Democrats have an image problem. They have not well defined themselves post Biden Harris, and now they've got this young upstart, could be the youngest mayor of New York city since the 1800s.
- [23:06]
Terry McAuliffe
Wow.
- [23:06]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
I mean, that's a long time. Even older than me. And so like, the reality is the Democratic Party is going to have to deal with this. And I think that's the definitional thing. I don't think it's going to matter to Republican politics or, or whatnot. But like, the reality is, you know, Democrats are going to have a hangover tomorrow morning if he winds up being mayor of New York.
- [23:26]
Joe
Wow. What do you think of Rick, the Republican efforts to back Andrew Cuomo at the last minute. You've got a Stephen Miller endorsement last night for the former Democratic governor. What's going on? Funnier. Yeah.
- [23:38]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
That'll go a long way in New York City.
- [23:40]
Zoran Mamdani
Yeah.
- [23:40]
Joe
So, I mean, are they making it.
- [23:41]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Harder for Andrew Cuomo does seem like it's a little self aware. Right. You know, because. Yeah, I do think it makes it harder. I think Donald Trump, you know, basically endorsing him at the last minute and then saying, I'm going to wreak havoc on the people of New York. Oh, that's going to convince him that his, his endorsement goes somewhere. I don't know. It doesn't make any sense to me, honestly. You know, the campaign hack that I am him, if I were Donald Trump and Stephen Miller, I would have focused on Curtis Sliwa, the Republican, you know, because those votes that he has would go to Cuomo if they thought Cuomo could beat this guy.
- [24:16]
Joe
To try to get him out, you mean? Absolutely.
- [24:17]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Well, not even get him out. Just bleed the votes. You know, Curtis is in double digits. He's. He is the reason that Cuomo is not competitive.
- [24:26]
Joe
That's it, Shortstop. Yeah.
- [24:28]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
And so rather than endorsing Democrats, Democrats, it wouldn't be the first Republican that Donald Trump threw under the bus. And so I don't know why that bus isn't rolling in in New York right now.
- [24:40]
Joe
Wow. All right, Jeannie, where's your heart on all of this to see Republicans backing the former Dem? I mean, he's still a Democrat, even though he's running as an independent in this case. What do you make of the strategy here and where's your heart on this idea that Zoran Mamdani is rewriting the playbook for the Democratic Party in the midterms?
- [25:00]
Host/Announcer
I think we're hearing, and we've heard it from many Republicans. I think we're hearing it from our dear friend Rick Davis right there. Their wish is to hang Mamdani over the Democratic Party as this be all and end all. I disagree. I think Abigail Spanberger gets a lot of attention. I think we have incredible Democrats across the country. Look at what is happening in California with Governor Newsom, who has been able to, if, if this turns out the way polls suggest, pass Prop 50 and meet Donald Trump's attempt to gerrymander Texas. So there are no shortage of more moderate Democrats in the party. And I think we have to look at the context in which this election occurred. Had moderate Democrats, Democrats put forward a candidate who Democrats could get behind, who had not just left the governor's office under allegations of, you know, sexual assault or impropriety in that way, who had not left under this veil of shame as he did, There is a chance that Mamdani would not have won that primary. But you look around New York and find me moderate Democrats, Democratic Democrats who are thrilled with the choice of Cuomo, those who are voting for him are doing so out of fear of Mandani. So I don't think this is a sort of clear choice in that way in terms of what the Democratic Democratic Party has become. I do think we are seeing a lot of frustration, and rightly so, on the part of particularly young people who are saying this entire system, capitalism in particular, is not working for me. We heard Donald Trump on 60 Minutes the other day. He was going on and on about how great the market is doing and for one case, are booming. And when Norah Donald said, yeah, but costs are off, he was very confused by the idea that not everybody is in the market and enjoying 401ks that are robust. So this is what Mamdani has played to. He is electric on the campaign trail, but there's electricity in the moderate parts of the party as well.
- [27:12]
Joe
Well, I guess the lights are about to go out on the Curtis Lewa despite as Rick mentioned, him being in the double digits and the calls continue coming at this late hour for him to drop out of the race, which is bizarre because he's on the ballot either way. This is his response from yesterday even to this day.
- [27:27]
Rick Davis
We're 30 hours away. Oh, you're going to drop out? Are you out of your mind? Don't you listen to me? Every day and every day that people talk about whether I should drop out or not is a good day for Zorad Mandami because then he doesn't have to talk about the issue issues especially public safety, law and order, cops, things that he's very weak on and would be vulnerable to losing a lot of votes if we would focus on that.
- [27:54]
Zoran Mamdani
Instead of this nonsensical every day.
- [27:56]
Rick Davis
Are you going to drop out?
- [27:58]
Joe
He's had a couple turns at this. Rick, is this the last one for Curtis Lewa?
- [28:03]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
First of all, I'm glad to see the beret is back. It is his definition and, and look, it's never been the last hurrah for Kurt. This is what, his third race that he's run unsuccessfully. Look, I think the Republican party in the state of New York really needs some soul searching, right? I mean like the reason we're not more competitive is because we're not putting competitive candidates at. Could you imagine if it was a one on one with a Republican right now we'd be at 55%. I mean a Republican could win in New York City against Mom D money. So he's only getting 40 some percent of the vote. 60% of the city doesn't want him.
- [28:40]
Joe
Imagine.
- [28:41]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
So at some point the party's got to realize that if they just keep, you know, sort of whistling past the graveyard on elections, they think they're never going to win.
- [28:50]
Joe
So you need a real candidate for the next election in New York City.
- [28:53]
Host/Announcer
Absolutely.
- [28:53]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
I would start today, you know, looking at who are you going to recruit, how are you going to train them, how do you get them or an organization stood up. It's not like we haven't won Republicans victories in New York City. We have. It's just it takes a good candidate and candidate recruitment matters and this party.
- [29:10]
Joe
Has not been doing it really something. Jeannie, I don't know what's going to happen to Curtis Lewa or, or the feline vote for that matter. But what if Zoran Mandani was running against a moderate Republican in New York? Would this be shut down already?
- [29:25]
Host/Announcer
It would. And I think you're hearing a similar. It could be. I don't, wouldn't say it would, but I think you're hearing a similar story on both sides and it's reflected in the polling. People are angry at the establishment parts of these parties, not just in New York City or New York State, but across the country. The Democrat and Republicans are underwater in terms of approval. People are holding their nose as they go to the polls. And so imagine to Rick's point, had the Republicans put up a candidate who was competitive. Likewise, had the moderate Democrats done that. You know, Zoram Ghani will tell you himself, he was at 1% in the polls when this primary started. But people were being asked to support somebody who left the governorship under shame and who has a long record that is highly controversial. And I don't think, at least in this short time period, moderates in the primary were excited to go to the polls and support him and they stayed home. And here we have Mandani. And so I think the establishments on both sides have to take a look at who they are putting forward and who they want to be be.
- [30:32]
Joe
Just 30 seconds, Rick. Polls close in New York City, nine o' clock tonight. Is this an early call with the numbers we're seeing?
- [30:37]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah, it could be. I mean, you know, all the energy I'm seeing on turnout models here is that it's, you know, skewing lower on the age level and very Democratic. So that's probably going to be beneficial to Mamdani. So yeah, I think there'll be an early call in New York. And I must say, the one person who's probably more worried about Imam Donnie victory is the governor, Kathy Hochul, because you know, Elise Phonic is going to make him her deputy.
- [31:03]
Joe
Fascinating boy. All right, we're just getting rolling here on election day with Rick Davis and Jeanne Shan Zaino. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [31:15]
Host/Announcer
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Rick Davis
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Host/Announcer
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- [32:34]
Joe
You for joining us on Election Day in America. We have so far this hour brought you to Manhattan, brought you to New Jersey, California. Now we go to the Old Dominion and the great state of Virginia. Really looking forward to our conversation with Terry McAuliffe, the former governor. Someone who has been there is about to join us here as we set the table with Bloomberg's Greg Giroux, Bloomberg Government, which incidentally is in Northern Virginia. So let's get on with it. Greg. It's great to see a happy election day. We couldn't do an election without you here. We talked about how close the race appears to be in New Jersey a short time ago. We've talked about the blowout that's expected for Zoran Mamdani in Manhattan. How about the gubernatorial race in Virginia where there have been big questions about candidate quality on the Republican side and what many are framing as a layup for Abigail Spencer Spanberger?
- [33:22]
Greg Giroux
Yeah, it does seem like polls indicate that Abigail Spanberger, the former congresswoman, is going to win and probably win decisively in the race for governor, which would extend a pattern in Virginia governor's elections of of the party that usually wins is usually the party opposite the White House. So it's it gets a lot of outsized attention for that. You see that New Jersey as well, though the pattern is not as clear. But yeah, Abigail Spanberger seems to be on pace to win this and win this by a decent margin. I think a big question will be is her victory strong enough to pull the down ballot Democrats for lieutenant governor and state attorney general along with her and to what extent her coattails can boost the state House of Delegates Democratic majority, which is now just 51 to 48. Democrats are seeking an expanded majority in the state House not only to help shape state policy the next two years, but because they also want to redraw congressional district lines in Virginia, and they would need Democratic government to do that.
- [34:26]
Joe
That attorney general race in Virginia is an interesting one. Jay Jones, the Democrat who is. And when I drive through my neighborhood, I see his name on signs with Abigail Spanberger, and of course, was caught in a scandal over text messages in which he was wishing violence, political violence upon an opponent. Opponent Republicans, his challenger, Jason Miares, have seized on this. To what extent could this be an issue for Democrats? And does Abigail Spanberger need to get him elected tonight?
- [34:55]
Greg Giroux
Yeah, I mean, I think the margin for Spanberger may be kind of decisive in determining whether she can pull Jay Jones over the line. Obviously, the bigger the margin for her, I think the, the chances that Jones can weather this increase. Although polling indicates that certainly this texting issue, the scandal from three years ago when he sent those violent text messages, has really hurt his campaign. And polls show pretty close race between him and the Republican incumbent Jason Meares in these three races in Virginia every four years. And the year after the presidential election, governor, lieutenant governor and attorney general more often than not tend to go the same way. But this may be be a rare instance where they do not. But I think Spanberger's margin will be interesting to watch tonight and to what extent, what, how far the drop off is for Jay Jones versus Spanberger's margins.
- [35:48]
Joe
Yeah. Great to have you back. As always, Greg Giroux. Look for his work covering the election on the terminal and online. The former governor is with us now as well. No stranger to Barack Obama, Terry McCauliffe, former governor of Virginia, former chair of the Democratic National Committee, is with us live from the Old Dominion. And Governor, it's great to see you. I really appreciate your time today on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm curious your thoughts on the shutdown, now 35 days old, impacting decisions in this election with so many federal workers who have been furloughed now for over a month, does that help Abigail Spanberger in the end?
- [36:23]
Terry McAuliffe
Absolutely. Republicans rightfully are being blamed for the shutdown. When I ran for governor in 13, Republicans also had a shutdown there. I went up 10 points in the polls. They rightfully are blaming the Republicans. We have 500,000 federal workers, the most of any state in America. Maryland is right behind us. And we have a President Donald Trump who's now saying, well, I'm not sure we're going to pay those people back for the time that they've worked. So this is a perfect storm for Donald Trump this year in these elections. We're going to win big in Virginia. We're going to sweep the statewide. I think we may get to 60 House of Delegate seats. But, but ever since Donald Trump has come into office, Joe, our economy has been decimated. Our third quarter GDP went from 6 to 1.77 straight months. Unemployment has gone up. We have had the doge cuts, the federal contract cuts, now a shutdown. We've seen three rural health centers closed. Trump has been a disaster for Virginia. This is a lot like 2017 when Trump won in 16, we won the governorship by nine, nine and a half points. Markets, it's turbocharged this year because it comes down to affordability. People are paying more for groceries, they're paying more for energy. And now because of the big ugly bill, they're paying more for health care. So it's going to be a big night not only here, also in New Jersey, also in California, also in New York.
- [37:43]
Joe
I'd actually love to get your take on some of the other states as someone who helped to run the party or did run the party at one point. But when it comes to Virginia, there have been questions about candidate quality on the Republican side, governance. Governor Donald Trump held a telerally for Winsome Earl Sears last night and never actually mentioned her name. What do you make of Republican selection in this case? Would you have a harder race against someone else?
- [38:08]
Terry McAuliffe
Yeah, I mean it's a ticket hard to make up, a very erratic ticket. The lieutenant governor who's now running for governor, Earl Winsome Sears, is very erratic, has not talked at all about the account economy. You know, one other president Rand, said it's the economy, stupid. Well, it is again this time and she has not talked about the economy. You have a lieutenant governor, Republican candidate for lieutenant governor who has had a whole slew of issues and they've had no money. So it's really a perfect storm. And our candidate, we got great candidates. Abigail, I've known Abigail for years. She's been a great member of Congress. She will focus on job creation, health care, education funding. And you know, Joe, at the end of the day, that's what voters want and that's what they really want with their state elected officials. Remember, we build your roads, we run your health care, we run your education. And they just want all this bickering that goes on to stop. They want results and that's what you're going to get with Abigail and Hashmi and you're going to get it with our attorney General Jay Jones. And that's what people want. You're going to get. It's going to be a historic win tonight and I should say say the first woman governor in the history of the Commonwealth of Virginia we're actually going to be able to elect tonight.
- [39:18]
Joe
You mentioned Jay Jones. I have to ask you about his campaign. As we were just discussing with Greg Giroux, are you concerned about this text message scandal? We hear about it a lot. In an age when political violence is a real concern. Do you wish that, that he came out and apologized and was more deliberate in that effort?
- [39:36]
Terry McAuliffe
Yeah. Well, Joe, he did come out right away and apologize, apologize, horrid comments. I mean, nobody should talk about political violence. You know, I hated it. You know, I didn't like it when Donald Trump came out and said I could shoot someone on 5th Ave. And people will still vote for me. There is no place for that today. But I have personally known Jay for a long time. I knew his father who recently passed was a well known judge down in Hampton Roads. His mother was a judge. His grandfather was a great civil rights attorney. So I know Jay's background. He will be a great attorney general. And here's the key point, very important, Joe. So you have Jason Meyeris, the Republican attorney general who is in lockstep with Donald Trump. He should have sued Donald Trump, the administration on the doge cuts. He should have sued on all these federal contracts that we lost here in Virginia. So you now have now one Republican in Virginia in the last 10 months who's come out to defend Virginians, to support Virginians. But no, all they want to do is support Donald Trump. Trump and our economy is anemic. And governor elect Abigail Spanberger tomorrow, she's going to have to deal with a crisis in our health care and jobs all because of Donald Trump and the Republicans in Virginia who have been too scared to stand up for the people who they should have been representing.
- [40:51]
Joe
Donald Trump has invoked energy as a major issue in the campaign and of course it speaks to costs and prices across the board. He said if affordability is your issue, this is untrue. So social vote Republican energy costs and as an example are plummeting close to $2 a gallon gasoline. When energy goes down, everything else follows. And it has. I guess my question for you, Governor is with the data center capital of the world in Virginia and more data centers coming, is it possible for a Democrat or a Republican to promise to control energy costs when we see such demand for energy in high tech.
- [41:27]
Terry McAuliffe
Yeah, very good question. When I was governor there a lot of data centers, you know, I was very proud. I was a jobs governor. I recruited 2100 companies, 210,000 new jobs I brought to Virginia. I did the Amazon deal and a bunch of other big deals. But in order to do those deals, Joe, you need energy.
- [41:44]
Joe
Yeah.
- [41:45]
Terry McAuliffe
If you're going to bring in those high tech companies, you need to provide them with energy. So I come from a place as a Democrat, I've been very vocal. I'm for all the above. Above. I did the largest offshore wind project utility in American history off the shores of Virginia Beach. I did solar panels, but I was all for natural gas. I lost two gigantic manufacturing projects where I could have brought to southwest Virginia, but Dominion could not commit to me the long term energy contract. So if we're going to grow our economy, we as Democrats, we got to be for all of the above. I couldn't agree more. I'm all for renewable, renewables, but let's make sure that we have everything in place so that we can grow jobs, we can grow manufacturing and that's what the Democrats need to be talking about. All of the above. And let's do everything we can to grow our economy.
- [42:30]
Joe
This is going to turn out to be a much more pronounced conversation, Governor, that I'd love to continue with you even beyond the election. But give us your view nationally here you ran the dnc. Frank Luntz told us last evening on balance of power that Democrats, Democrats will sweep tonight. That also includes gubernatorial in New Jersey and Prop 50 in California. You obviously agree with him. I'm guessing because it looks pretty close in New Jersey today.
- [42:56]
Terry McAuliffe
Yeah. Listen, you know and play this tomorrow. I hope you put it on, Joe. I think Mikey probably wins by five to six. You know, great. Went to the U.S. naval Academy. I love her. I've known a long time. Her husband, naval Academy, captain of the rugby team. My son was captain of the Navy rugby team. So I love Mikey.
- [43:14]
Host/Announcer
She.
- [43:15]
Terry McAuliffe
I love Abigail. I worked with her as governor. I think Abigail Ralph won by nine in 2017. I think Abigail could go nine to 12. 60. House of Delegates. Joe, you heard it here. You play this back tomorrow 59 to 60. It's a historic win for us and we could win the California prop 2 to 1. That's a possibility. 2 to 1 and huge win in New York. So we sweep the board. Please play this tomorrow. And either I look like a great Sousa or I'M man, I'm one of the biggest fools in American.
- [43:44]
Joe
That's some confidence. That's a man with confidence.
- [43:47]
Terry McAuliffe
Just telling you. Yeah. But the dynamics of Donald Trump, he is minus. He's, you know, you've saw the polls. He's the lowest of any president in American history. In Virginia, he's minus 15 points. He has destroyed our economy. Soybean farmers, because of the tariffs, they're going bankrupt. Rural voters in Virginia, farmers going bankrupt because of Donald Trump. Trump. And it's just shocking to me that nobody, now one Republican, will stand up and say, Mr. President, you are wrong. This is hurting our economy. Let show political courage, get up and do what's right. I'm all about jobs. I'm a jobs governor. And we need someone in that White House who's focused on people's jobs, their health care, keeping energy prices low, keeping grocery prices low. So big night for us, Joe. Tomorrow. I want this thing replayed tomorrow at 1 o'. Clock.
- [44:37]
Joe
All right? Producer James has his assignment. You're making his job easier. Governor Terry McAuliffe, thank you for being here live on Bloomberg TV and radio on election Day in Virginia and across the country. We appreciate your insights and we will see. Let's see if Mikey Sheryl pulls out five or six points and we'll play some of that tape back Tomorrow with Terry McAuliffe. Great conversations across the board and I want to thank everybody for being part of it. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already. Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com.
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