Europe Reacts to Trump's Greenland Push

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode: Europe Reacts to Trump's Greenland Push
Host: Joe Mathieu (& Kailey Leinz, producers, Bloomberg panelists, and guests)
Date: January 20, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode revolves around the dramatic international reaction to President Donald Trump’s provocative push regarding Greenland at the eve of the World Economic Forum in Davos. The hosts provide real-time analysis of Trump's latest threats to allies, Europe's coordinated response, market jitters, and the broader collision of geopolitics, trade, and domestic political theater. There's additional discussion of the shifting ways President Trump wields power and how his combative messaging is influencing both foreign governments and financial markets.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Setting the Stage: Davos, Trump, and Geopolitics

• The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos serves as the backdrop for President Trump’s latest international gambit.
• Trump plans a major speech at Davos billed as domestic policy but freighted with geopolitical overtones, especially on NATO, Greenland, and U.S.-EU relations.

"It's going to be a very interesting Davos... It's like Jurassic Park when you see the big puddle and the ripples. The T. Rex is coming." — Joe Matthew (02:24)

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2. Escalating Rhetoric: Greenland, Tariffs, and NATO

• Trump has threatened a 10% (up to 25% by June) tariff on countries supporting Greenland and floated a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne in response to European leaders' pushback and concerns about his Greenland proposal.
• European allies, including France's Macron and others, have voiced concerns, especially as Trump also mixes in policy on Gaza and NATO.

“No single person or president has done more for Naito than President Donald J. Trump. If I didn’t come along, there would be no Naito right now. Would be in the ash heap of history.” — Trump on Truth Social, paraphrased by Tyler Kendall (03:38)

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3. European Anxiety and Coordination

• European officials were described as “freaked out,” “absurd,” and viewing the situation as “next level, game changer” in private messages to Bloomberg journalists after Trump’s weekend posts and threats.
• The EU is preparing emergency summits and plotting $93 billion in retaliatory tariffs against American imports if Trump’s new levies go live February 1st.

"All the amps are up to an 11 today. Everybody is really, really concerned." — Christina Ruffini (07:03)

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4. Diplomatic Fallout: Leaked Communications

• Trump’s tactic of publicly posting or paraphrasing private texts with European leaders (France’s Macron, UK’s Starmer, Netherlands’ Rutte, Norway’s Støre) further strains diplomatic relations.
• Such leaks are unprecedented and harm trust, even if diplomats expect unpredictability from Trump.

"Any diplomat knows there are things you need say to your counterparts that you need to not be made public. That makes all of this much more complicated." — Christina Ruffini (10:06)

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5. U.S. Domestic Policy and the 'Bully Pulpit'

• The panel explores how Trump bypasses legislative process with headline-grabbing executive orders and pressure, influencing markets and companies via public statements.
• Policy is now shaped as much by Trump's messaging as by formal mechanisms, and expectations are for such tactics to escalate as legislative activity slows in an election year.

“There’s three ways of implementing policy. ... But there’s a fourth way… What are we getting from the bully pulpit? ... Headline risk comes out. The stocks, you know, moved toward a headline.” — Nathan Dean (14:38)

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6. Market & Political Reactions

• U.S. and global markets reacted negatively (“down over 1%”) to the uncertainty and potential for a tariff war.
• Political consensus is that a government shutdown is unlikely despite tough ongoing negotiations—both parties hope to avoid the blame as midterms approach.

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7. Broader Implications for Alliances and Global Order

• Significant alarm about the risk of U.S.-European alliance rupture and advantage for Russia and China amid Western disarray.
• Trump's proposal of a "Board of Peace" as an alternative to the UN Security Council is viewed with skepticism, especially given Putin's invitation and costly membership fee ($1B).

"The world has gone topsy turvy. It's incredible. And the big winners out of this are, of course, Russia and China... The Russians are going [on] having a good laugh at the expense of the United States and the breakup of what they see as the breakup of Naito." — Jeannie Shannon Zaino (28:46)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Market and Political Jitters:
  "You see the markets now down over 1%. We just learned something important." — Joe Matthew (07:49)
• On Diplomatic Fallout:
  "Remember when he put Lindsey Graham's cell phone number on TV?" — Joe Matthew (10:21)
• On the Trump Negotiation Style:
  “This is a tactic. The president likes to go in hot and negotiate down from a high level. This is all part of the strategy that is ringing a bit hollow with Europeans.” — Christina Ruffini (08:16)
• On Davos Optics:
  “Why is President Trump delivering a speech on affordability in Davos?... You would think you would do it in Arizona, North Carolina...” — Nathan Dean (16:35)

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Timestamps for Major Segments

| Time | Topic/Segment | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 01:02 | Episode Open, Davos Context, Setting the Scene | | 03:38 | Trump’s Greenland and NATO Messaging; Social Media Postings | | 04:52 | European Pushback, Tariff Threats, and Working-Group Diplomatic Efforts | | 06:03 | Emergency EU Summit, Retaliatory Tariffs Discussion | | 07:03 | European Officials’ (Private) Reactions; “Absurd...Game changer” | | 09:18 | Diplomatic Fallout from Publicizing Private Texts | | 10:06 | Impact of Leaks on Diplomatic Relationships | | 13:50 | Local DC News (The Sphere); Market and Regulatory Updates | | 14:38 | How Trump Uses the Bully Pulpit to Influence Policy and Markets | | 16:28 | Davos Speech Strategy, Executive Action vs. Legislation | | 17:38 | Do Voters Care about Davos & Geopolitics? | | 19:29 | Government Shutdown Prospects, Political Calculations | | 21:44 | Changes in Policy Process: Persona vs. Process | | 25:50 | Board of Peace Proposal, Response to Macron | | 28:46 | "Winners are Russia and China", European Troops to Greenland | | 32:28 | Final Thoughts on Trump’s Strategy and U.S. Treaties in Greenland |

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Conclusion

This episode offers a rapid-fire yet nuanced look at the way President Trump’s rhetorical and policy escalations are roiling U.S.-Europe relations, stirring markets, and upending diplomatic practice. The panel underscores how Europe is being forced into rare unity, how Trump's style alters both domestic and global political calculation, and how the biggest winners—at least for now—may be Russia and China. The show blends sharp analysis, insider quotes, and a bit of wry humor in chronicling an extraordinary European reaction to an extraordinary American presidency.

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For more, listen to the full episode on the Balance of Power podcast via Bloomberg.

Transcript

[Joe Matthew]

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[Host (Joe Matthew)]

With three unpack my God, we can't take these Mondays off, but it was really nice to have a long weekend and I hope you did as well with a good MLK day here as we launch ourselves into year number two. Welcome to the Tuesday edition. I know it feels like a Monday here on Balance of Power Bloomberg Radio we're streaming live on YouTube. That part hasn't changed. Search for us Bloomberg Business News Live to catch our live feed here from Washington, D.C. a spirit of dialogue is how they're calling the World Economic Forum's 56th annual meeting. Half the shop is over at Davos right now. We're still ensconced here inside the bubble. The President doesn't leave until tonight and we have the full band. We put the whole band back together here for this shortened trading week. Producer James is with us. America's producer, the Fernando Mendoza of talk radio, along with, as I mentioned, Tyler Kendall. We're going to spend some time with Tyler in just a moment, and Christina Raffini is standing by with her insights on exactly what in the world is going on here when it comes to Greenland and as I mentioned, our NATO allies. The president, he was at that game, talked about it on his way back last night. Listen, I don't think they're going to.

[Nathan Dean]

Push back too much.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Look, we have to have it. They have to have this done.

[Nathan Dean]

They can protect it.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

NATO has been warning denmark for about 20 years now, longer than that, 25 years, they've been warning Denmark about the Russian threat. And it's not only Russia, it's also China. So we'll see what happens. But let's put it this way, it's going to be a very interesting Davos. Yeah, it is it already is as they wait for the president to land. It's like Jurassic park when you see the big puddle and the ripples. The T. Rex is coming. Tyler Kendall covers Donald Trump for a living and she's with us right now as they gas up Air Force One. Tyler, it's great to have you. They're going to be out of here tonight and this is going to be one ripper of a speech tomorrow after. I don't even know where to start, by the way, with asking you questions here. This was three days of wild rhetoric. A lot of posts. He's posted like three times on Truth Social since I came in the studio here. In fact, we may as well just update everybody. This is the most recent one from 10 minutes ago. No single person or president has done more for Naito than President Donald J. Trump. If I didn't come along, there would be no Naito right now. Would be in the ash heap of history. Sad but true. And he signed it, so we know he wrote it. Is that what he says tomorrow morning in Davos?

[Joe Matthew]

Very likely. Though I should start by saying I know where I want to start, which is that you are America's anchor, Joe. Part of, well, part of this team.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Never heard that before.

[Joe Matthew]

There's a lot that we're looking out for tomorrow. Of course, this was a weekend of escalation. Now, we should first say that the White House has actually pitched this as a domestic speech. We've heard from his advisers, like the NEC director, Kevin Hassett, saying he's going to roll out his housing affordability plan. We've already heard, floated some details of that around, how homeowners could take from their 401ks and put that towards a down payment. But at the same time, it is hard to ignore that there is just so much geopolitics at the moment. And this speech is coming after a weekend where President Trump stoked a few different disputes with allies, perhaps most notably this threat of a 10% tariff by FE first up to 25% by June for those countries that have rallied around Greenland.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yeah. So he's going to be headed over there tonight. And I guess the big question is, what's the purpose of all this messaging beforehand? Because, right, he's a dealmaker, as we always hear. He's going to ask for something insane or demand something insane and then call it a victory when he pulls back and cuts a deal on this. Do we expect a deal on Greenland this weekend? Are there sideline meetings being set up? What's going to happen?

[Joe Matthew]

Well, the pushback that we've already seen from European allies is probably going to make that possibility a little bit more difficult because President Trump has only really ramped up the pressure in recent hours. As European leaders have responded to this, I'll point out that issues are starting to really collide here. We had the French President Emmanuel Macron raise concerns about Greenland, but also raise concerns about President Trump's proposed Board of Peace in Gaza, which officials tell us he's looking to finalize on the sidelines of Davos later this week. And in response, President Trump shot back, floating the idea of a 200% tariff on French wine and champagne, which makes it feel like we are not getting any closer to some sort of resolution here. But I do think it's worth pointing out the broader context, which is that these threats came over the weekend from President Trump. But it came after a week here in Washington where we saw meetings between the administration and officials from Denmark and Greenland that were characterized as relatively positive. They actually came out saying that they established these working groups to keep diplomatic channels open. But it's very clear that the president didn't feel that way because then we saw this rhetoric over the weekend.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Amazing stuff, Tyler, thank you. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall with a lot to talk about here. EU ambassadors are going to be holding an emergency summit later on this week. They met yesterday to discuss putting in place $93 billion of retaliatory tariffs on American imports, if Indeed this new 10% kicks in February 1st. I should mention, by the way, what didn't happen today. We got no ruling on tariffs from the Supreme Court. So all of this remains in place for now. Christina Ruffini covered the State Department and Geopolitics for a lot of years, and as you've seen on this program, has a real keen sense for what's going on here and joins us live from world headquarters in New York. Christina, it's great to see you. The Norway letter was everything. It was a text, actually. Considering your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped eight wars plus, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be predominant. What's he telling EU leaders, our NATO allies? Is it prepared for an invasion?

[Joe Matthew]

I mean, this is a, this is a threat that's being taken a lot more seriously than I think other Trump rhetoric has in the past. I am going to tell you my phone started blowing up at 5am this morning from Europe with my WhatsApp pinging with a bunch of different officials asking what is going on. I'll give you some of the adjectives I received. Absurd, freaked out, next level, game changer. Really, really bad. And look, some of these ministers are folks who have a good relationship with this administration and have previously urged calm, while others have been at an 11. All I'm hearing, all the amps are up to an 11 today. Everybody is really, really concerned. Look, I think there is. Gotta get that Spinal Tap reference in yourself.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yes, we're up to 11. I bet you had some other words on there, James, but keep the dump button ready.

[Joe Matthew]

No, no.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

You see the markets now down over 1%. We just learned something important. Christina, I'm going to let you continue here with this now in mind. It was producer James who told me this. He had a, he had a, an inkling when we came in the studio. The press secretary said she'd have a special guest today for the briefing at 1:00'. Clock. You know who it is? According to CBS, Trump.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

What's he going to say? Does this mean that he's nervous about this market reaction?

[Joe Matthew]

I don't know if he's nervous or if you're going to hear him double down. Look, there's a couple things going on in the background. We do have the Finnish president who told Bloomberg TV this morning he does not like to be thought of as the Trump whisperer, but he also kind of is. Officials tell me he golfs with the President. He has a very good way of urging calm with the president. You know, he was saying conversations over the past few hours have given him hope. We also have the Treasury Secretary saying like this will all calm down. I did speak. Speak to a former member of this administration who also said they believe this will be worked out in the next couple days. And this is a tactic. The president likes to go in hot and negotiate down from a high level. This is all part of the strategy that is ringing a bit hollow with Europeans who once again are scrambling not only how to react, but how to react in unison. Obviously, they can do tariffs, they can do this nuclear option, they can dump Treasuries. And I heard from a European official today who said despite all that rancor, despite the disagreements and tactic, they do believe Europe will come together and institute those tariffs if Trump goes through with this.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yeah. What do you think of the other texts? He put texts to Macron, Ruda and Starmer up there. I mean, wow, this the. I don't even know which one to pick here when it comes to the Ruta call. Very good telephone call, as he wrote in his own post concerning Greenland. Then he posts this thing. Mr. President, dear Donald, what you accomplished in Syria today is incredible. I will use my media engagements in Davos to highlight your work there in Gaza and Ukraine committed to finding a way forward on Greenland. Macron with a similar. I don't understand what you're doing with Greenland, but we can do good work.

[Joe Matthew]

On Syria, you know, focusing on the positive and that crisis.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yeah, great work on Syria. We've got less than a minute. Christina, what is actually exposing these private texts due to these relationships?

[Joe Matthew]

I mean, it's not good. I think all these leaders are smart enough to know that this is always a possibility when you send Trump a message. But any diplomat knows there are things you need say to your counterparts that you need to not be made public. That makes all of this much more complicated.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Remember when he put Lindsey Graham's cell phone number on tv?

[Joe Matthew]

I do remember that like it was yesterday.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Christina, thank you. Apologize to everyone who is texting you or messaging you this morning and come hang with us more often. This news briefing is set to start at the top of the hour. Maybe we'll pull Christina back in here after we hear from the President. Rafini live at 731. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. We're going to pull America's dad in next. Yeah, see, it's like a Monday becomes Tuesday only on Bloomberg. Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Nathan Dean]

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[Host (Joe Matthew)]

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[Host (Joe Matthew)]

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[Joe Matthew]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Thanks for being here on the Tuesday edition, even though I keep saying it's Monday. Bloomberg Radio, satellite radio, channel 121. Available on YouTube as well. I'm just trying to get my head around the sphere. In Washington D.C. was this part of Donald Trump's vision? You've got the Arc de Trump over there on the other side of Memorial Bridge. Well, there it is. Now, if you're with us on YouTube, look at this artist rendering here from the company, the Sphere. These are the guys you know from Las Vegas. We're getting one here. Washington Post was the first to hit this. The company saying it will be the first mini sphere. Be right off the Potomac river down there. If you know national harbor, that's where this is going to go. Across from Old Town Alexandria. When you fly in, you're going to see the sphere looking up at you. Apparently this will be a 6,000 seat sphere. Would open in 2030. A third of the size, they say of the one in Vegas, at half the cost. A billion dollars. It took a billion dollars to build that thing. The company says it'll provide a billion dollars in economic activity annually, but we're worried about data centers taking up all the power. What the heck is this thing? How do you get the juice to run this thing? We're worried about planes being able to see their way into the airport. What's going to happen when you go out to dinner in Old Town? You're going to see this big thing blinking at you from across the river. This is why they didn't want one in London. And I think the sphere is cool. Nathan didn't know we were going to be talking about this, but he's in here now. Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence, senior U.S. policy analyst. You've been to the one in Vegas.

[Nathan Dean]

I have not.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

It's pretty cool though, right? I wanted to go, I just didn't want to go to it here.

[Nathan Dean]

Well, you know, if we can get like a four week run of the Eagles or something like that. Yes, maybe.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Well, I didn't think about that. Or we get, we get the big residencies now. I live down there though, across the river. I'm going to see like this false sunrise all the time with this. It's there. It's a really bright thing that we're adding to the skyline here, that there's a big, what do they call it, the big Ferris wheel. Already changing DC as we know it.

[Nathan Dean]

Well, you know, it's, it's national harbor and I say this is a Virginian. Like I've been there maybe twice in my life. So, you know, maybe the sphere Will.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Be sell Glen Ivy that when it comes in here. We've got to talk about what's happening in the markets vis a vis geopolitics. And I want to ask you about what's happening on the Hill. All of these things overlap somehow. It's that speaker of the House is speaking to British Parliament today. Well, we don't have a funding mechanism yet in Washington. The President's upset half of Europe. He's on his way to Davos. Yeah. James asking will it be the Trump sphere left to put his name on it? Right. So what are you getting phone calls about? Because the bond market doesn't love what's happening with all of this. The stock market? Well, I mean, it was coming into this at all time, highs, but it seems to be pretty upset today, too.

[Nathan Dean]

Well, you know, many times in this program I said there's three ways of implementing policy. It's regulation, legislation, and executive orders. But there's a fourth way, and this is what the clients are calling on, is what are we getting from the bully pulpit? What are we getting from President Trump saying either on social media or even to a bunch of CEOs saying, I want you to do something. Think of this credit card interest cap at 10%.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yeah.

[Nathan Dean]

Today's January 20th. Supposed to be effective today. I actually went back and checked my credit card. It's not capped at 10%. So the question here is, is that a lot of these clients are calling and they're saying, look, how does the bully pulpit work for President Trump? How does he influence policy? And you sort of get this idea that like headline risk comes out. The stocks, you know, moved towards a headline. Think of private equity with Blackstone when he announced that they was going to ban corporate purchases of single family homes. You know, Blackstone reacted to that. It's actually a small portion of their business. It's actually not all that important to them. But the stock still moved. So you have this headline risk. Then you have this analysis of what actually he means. Then you have to try and figure out how does he use the bully pulpit to try and change behavior. Because the other ways of doing stuff, legislation doesn't happen very often. Executive orders, somewhat limited or it goes to the courts. Regulation takes time.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

You need to write like a Trump playbook. I mean, for real, that's what you're talking about, Right? This is all based on the history of the last year. Well, if we were sitting here one year ago today, you probably wouldn't have answered it like that.

[Nathan Dean]

Exactly. You're exactly right. And Think about where we are in terms of the election. So we have the midterms in November. By around April or May, all 435 members of the House and 33 members of the Senate, they're going to start getting itchy. They're like, I don't want to be here in Washington. I want to go home and campaign because my opponent is campaigning against me. So legislation dries up. So what do presidents do in that timeframe? And what do they do in their second portion of their second term when they become that dreaded word lame duck?

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Travel, baby.

[Nathan Dean]

They travel. They go international. And in President Trump's case, they used the pulpit to try and change the policy.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Really interesting. Is Davos a policy gathering or is this a scolding? Is this more about rhetoric or policy?

[Nathan Dean]

So I had this thought this morning as I was driving in. Why is President Trump delivering a speech on affordability in Davos?

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yes.

[Nathan Dean]

And not in front of billionaires.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

So he can scold them, call them out. Is that good optics?

[Nathan Dean]

You know what? That could be part of the. I'm just, you know, spitballing here. But, like, if you're trying to do an affordability speech in an election year, yeah, you would think you would do it in Arizona, North Carolina, you know, Louisiana was, you know, Senator Cassidy's, you know, stuff that's going on down there. But he's not. He's doing it in Davos. And so you're going to see this speech tomorrow, and it's most likely going to say there's an executive order on affordability coming, housing, credit card cap, maybe the swipe fee. But a lot of it is going to either need Congress or it's going to go back to this idea of looking the CEOs in the eye and saying, look, I want you to do something. And in that credit card space, when you have a company like Bilt saying, look, we've already got. We're going to put out a credit card capped at 10% for one year. And people start calling it trump card. You know, other banks, other companies, they may want to actually get in, because at the end of the day, for these corporations, they don't want to be in a fight with the White House. They just want to be left alone.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Who's watching? You know, CeCe is asking a great question like, who are the. Are normal people who are, you know, don't subscribe to terminals, trade stocks, invest themselves in the economy every day? Are they watching anything at Davos? Anyhow, they see all these, you know, anchor Men and women out in the snow with big coats on. What the heck are they doing? Is this mainstream?

[Nathan Dean]

Well, I like to think most of the Bloomberg clients are all watching live Go tomorrow and they're watching, but.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Right.

[Nathan Dean]

I'm sure, you know, one of the questions we got from clients is do voters actually care about geopolitical matters? And the answer is yes, to a certain extent. But affordability is going to be the message that goes into the midterms. And affordability is the message that we're going to be looking at for 2026 in terms of U.S. domestic policy. And what can the president do to actually bring prices down? You know, I was a giant over the weekend and a bag of Doritos, a large bag of Doritos was $8.29. You know, when you look at data centers and electricity prices going up for here in the region.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Right.

[Nathan Dean]

You know, that's certainly important to watch about. But again, from the president's standpoint, there's only so much he can do via unilateral executive action. So it's going to be really important to see if he can find other methods to influence policy.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Was that the family size or the party size?

[Nathan Dean]

This is the party size.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Party size. Not to be confused with the fun size, which would be very tiny, but.

[Nathan Dean]

My family could take down the entire bag.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

It's no doubt. I just don't get why is the small one the fun one. That's just strange psychology. All of this as the House returns today and we've got less than two weeks to a shutdown. But nobody's saying that it's a shutdown. In fact, we've seen a whole bunch of funding bills actually get some action here as of late yesterday. We're trying to finalize defense, transportation, hud, labor, hhs, education and Homeland Security, the latter of which is the most difficult one because of concerns about language surrounding ICE enforcement. Do we get this done this way or is everyone going to have to be pulled back into town next week for a last minute something?

[Nathan Dean]

I think it's going to be close, but if there is going to be a continuing resolution, it's going to be a quick one. I don't think it's this is going to kick into late March or anything. I think they're getting close. The reason being here is you have the election. It feels very different than the pre shutdown week before. We had the one last year and because Democrats look at the last shutdown and they said look, we came out of this pretty decent with independence let's not upset the balance, especially as we've had success in Virginia, New Jersey, et cetera. Republicans look at the same shutdown and they say, look, we got the blame amongst independents. Let's not go back to a situation like that. Because at the end of the day, you know, the midterms is what they're thinking about right now. And the shutdown just really doesn't play into any political strategy of why you'd want to shut the government down. I don't see anybody saying outside of like Senator Coons for example, you know, there's, there are some people out there, you know, that you know, are trying to use this political messaging. But amongst the rank and file in the establishment, I really don't see that those words being thrown around.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Well, that's nice to hear, I guess. Is the debate over Obamacare subsidies on ice for now? What happens when lawmakers come back?

[Nathan Dean]

I think it remains on ice. You know, our colleague Dwayne Wright, you know, has been writing about this all the time and he still uses words like skeptical and long odds because at the end of the day, there are a lot of people on the Republican side that don't want to see these subsidies continue. And it's just extremely difficult for a solution to come together. And that combined with an election year, I just don't see it happen, happening.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

So sit back with us for a minute. It's only once a week we get to sit on the porch here with our friend Nathan. And I'm just curious, what's going through your mind? One year later, I was sitting here in this room sitting next to Kailey Leinz one year ago. Remember, it was like one degree outside. They had to move the swearing in indoors. I'm surprised I haven't seen more archival footage of the President in the rotunda. And Joe Biden and everybody else remember, they were waving at him as Joe Biden took off behind the Capitol. And then what happened? Your phone has been ringing for a year about so many different crises. You went through Liberation Day. You've seen the so called taco trade, the way you just walked me through. Your interpretation over what's happening now suggests that we've learned a lot in the last year changing the way that you even do your business. Has it changed the way people interface with you, the questions they ask?

[Nathan Dean]

Yeah, it's all about President Trump's social media strategy, all about his public Persona as opposed to the process. You know, we actually thought there would be more legislation in 2025. You know, obviously that didn't happen. We had one big beautiful bill and people in Washington are beginning to utter that word the presidents hate, and that's called lame duck. And you know, that's one of the things where presidents then begin to try and influence policy through their own Persona. And President Trump has really done that. So I think what happens here is rather than looking at the process of how things get done. And look, there are still deregulatory efforts. The banks in particular are still really looking forward to this Basel III and game G sub surcharge proposals that are coming out. You're looking at 60 billion in capital that potentially could be returned. So deregulation is still there. But the question now is how does President Trump influence policy via executive order and through the bully pulpit? And that has changed the game tremendously because no president has acted like that in the last 25 years.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Fascinating. What piece of legislation were you most surprised did not get passed? Clarity. Was it something altogether different?

[Nathan Dean]

You know, clarity I always thought was going to be a 2026 issue. I didn't think it was going to be 2025. I think that there was a little bit more on the defense side that we were, you know, Senator Graham's $150 billion that you go through the one big beautiful bill. But you know, the going into this election, every sector had its own small piece of legislation.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yeah, right.

[Nathan Dean]

And those haven't passed.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Amazing. Really interesting. Nathan, how chippy is the state of the union going to be? We're screaming from the rafters this year.

[Nathan Dean]

It's going to be. I'm going to steal my Bloomberg popcorn and take it with me.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Okay, fair enough. You have odds on a shutdown? I haven't even asked you. Still at 30.

[Nathan Dean]

30.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

30. All right. This is the guy right here, the real thing. Nathan Dean, Bloomberg Intelligence. Nathan, thank you as always. We'll assemble our political panel next. Rick and Jeannie coming in next only on Bloomberg. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Nathan Dean]

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[Host (Joe Matthew)]

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[Nathan Dean]

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[Nathan Dean]

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[Joe Matthew]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York state. Just say Alexa played Bloomberg 1130.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

You got a Vix now knocking on 20s door here. This is not great. Gold is up. Crude oil is up. It's interesting what is getting a bid because so much of the market is lower here. When you consider some of the stories that we've been talking about recently. ExxonMobil climbing Micron climbing Max 7 not so much. We'll be watching the markets as the President speaks next hour. And of course he's going to be talking about war and peace right when he comes into the Oval Office. This is about Greenland. This is about NATO. This is about national security. Not to mention, as he told officials in Norway, the eight wars he managed to end. I think he said eight plus. I'm not sure exactly what that equals, but the President's talking about more than Greenland right now. You've heard about this Board of Peace. This has to do with Gaza. The invitations have gone out. Interesting. Who is invited and who is not? Because now Emmanuel Macron says he's not interested. The president wants to charge a billion dollars for a permanent role on the Board of Peace. He also invited a guy named Vladimir Putin who was busy bombing neighborhoods in Kiev last night. On his way back after the game last evening, President asked about this. Let's listen. Do you have any response to President.

[Nathan Dean]

Macron saying he will not join the Board of Peace?

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Did he say that? Well, nobody wants him because he's going to be out of office very soon. So, you know, that's all right. What I'll do is if they feel like Costo, I'll put a 200% tariff on his wines and champagnes and he'll join.

[Joe Matthew]

Can you invite President Putin to join the.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Yes. He's one of the people. These are world leaders. And the answer is yes. Wait, whoa. What about the wine? You heard this. We got another 200% tariff on wines and champagnes. He says then he'll join. Not sure that the president wants him to, but indeed, a permanent seat on the Board of Peace, which is being framed as this sort of alternate to the UN Security Council, can I go there? Will cost countries a billion dollars. I can't imagine what the panel thinks about anything that I have said so far this hour. Let's bring them in. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shannon Zaino off the long weekend and here on your radio and on YouTube. He's our Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital. Good to see you back in the usa, Rick. Jeannie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. As you both have heard, likely by now we're going to be graced by the president in the briefing room, which is not something that we see very often. First, Caroline Levitt said it would be a special guest. Now we know it will be the president who has been on attack. Rick, for the past three days. What are we about to see and hear? You know, it's kind of hard to tell. You know, sometimes when he sees the bond market react to his policies. You know, I think about, you know, the earlier when he announced his tariffs on Liberation Day. He, he, he, he came out and backed off the markets considerably. I'm sure they're waking up today taking a look at how the markets are reacting to this latest flurry of social media texting that he's done and maybe wanting to do the same approach. I mean, this is, this is coming into Davos hot. And I doubt if there are that many people who think this is, you know, within the West Wing of the White House who thinks this is a great way to do the classic Donald Trump escalate, to de escalate. So maybe today is the escalation coming in off the top rope in Davos. Jeannie, the president's going to have quite the preamble here in the briefing room. I mean, you know how this goes. When he starts, it usually is a good 45 minutes. Maybe it's going to be more than that. Whether he wants to scold the media, I do find it interesting that he is marking his first year back in office. This is anniversary day today. Jeannie. We were all freezing and talking about the swearing in a year ago. The president wants to spend some time with his favorite reporters. This is obviously a moment for him to set the agenda. One year later, what do you think he has in mind? Is it more of what we saw.

[Joe Matthew]

In truth, social yeah, it's, we're still all freezing. But how much has changed in the last year? I don't know what the president has in store. I am frightened to even imagine after the weekend we have had. We're on the one year celebration. And he is talking about going to war with our closest allies. We have Europeans sending troops into Greenland. I mean, the world has gone topsy turvy. It's incredible. And the big winners out of this are, of course, Russia and China. You may have noted on X that one of Putin's closest advisers, Medved, is posting these really celebratory ideas about how MAGA now means make Europe poor again. And on and on the Russians are going having a good laugh at the expense of the United States and the breakup of what they see as the breakup of Naito. Hopefully we don't get nearly that far, but this seems to be where we're headed. And the only ones celebrating besides Trump seem to be the Russians.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Imagine the leader of Norway, this Jonas Storr. He is. He feels the phone buzz in his pocket and he pulls it out. Look at the phone. Donald Trump unlocked the phone. Considering your country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped eight wars plus, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of peace, although it will always be prominent, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. How would you interpret that message, Rick, is the invasion set to begin? I don't know if the invasion set to begin, but he certainly decided that he wants to go hard into this negotiation for Greenland. I mean, you could have written 100 different scenarios to make this actually worth Europe's while to have the US in some kind of a bargain to give security agreements and economic assistance to Greenland, basically getting the same thing that he wants in a cooperative way. But that's not the approach he's taken. And so he's going to go to Davos with an expectation that the Europeans are going to roll over on him and he's going to make them do it in the harshest fashion. Right. In other words, not because he made it worth their while, but because he crushed him into it. And you know, we've already heard a lot of leakage out of the White House saying, gee, we're not exactly sure this is the right approach. Well, we're going to see. And right now it doesn't sound like the Europeans are in a deal making mood. And these kinds of threats are probably making it worse, not better. Great reporting on the terminal, Jeannie. As Bloomberg seizes on the symbolism of the House of God. Along the illustrious Davos promenade, the administration has taken over a 19th century church been reconsecrated for the week as a shrine to business and politics. And on the eve of the president's arrival. You might have seen Scott Besant speaking to reporters on camera right in front of the building. Massive banner that hangs on USA House spelling House of God. Is Trump the God, Jeannie?

[Joe Matthew]

Oh, I think he thinks he is. And I'm hoping those letterings are in gold, Joe, or he might not be too happy when he gets there.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

It's bold. All right.

[Joe Matthew]

It is stunning to think about the president going over there. And you mentioned this tweet. Understand the Finnish prime minister was also on that group chat. So I can't imagine either one of them being on that group chat and seeing the leader of the free world say, you didn't give me a prize for peace. So I'm not sure. I'm not invested in stopping killing people at this point. I mean, the entire thing is ridiculous. And let's not forget the United States, under current treaty, can also do everything it needs to do in Greenland. We don't need to negotiate much at all. So that is, you know, this is a ridiculous idea, strategically and in every other way.

[Host (Joe Matthew)]

Well, we're still talking about it and it's not about to end. He'll be on Air Force One to Davos tonight. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime [e-mail] these days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn, every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta, you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent. Secure any agent. Okta secures AI Pro drivers live for race day. But for small business owners, every day is race day. That's why going pro with Lenovo Pro matters one on one advice IT solutions and customized hardware powered by Intel Core Ultra processors. Keep your business on the right track. Business goes pro with Lenovo Pro Sign up for [e-mail] pro.