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- [00:00]
Podcast Host
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- [00:56]
Joe Matthew
It has been a doozy of a week, and it just keeps coming. Last evening, the indictment of James Comey, the very latest out of this White House. And I'll let you know, the president has left town. He's up at the Ryder Cup. But on his way out, he was asked by reporters about this indictment of the former FBI director who, you know, Donald Trump is not a fan of. He's now being accused of lying to Congress about Russian collusion in the 2016 election. The President was asked as he left the White House today, who's next? Let's listen. Not a list, but I think there'll be others. I mean, they're corrupt. These, these were corrupt radical left Democrats because Comey essentially was, he's worse than a Democrat, weaponized the Justice Department like nobody in history. What they've done is terrible. And so I would, I hope there are, frankly, I hope there are others because you can't let this happen to a country. We're not going to figure out likely who's next in this conversation. But Laura Davison is with us now, Bloomberg's Washington deputy bureau chief with more on this. Laura, this is a remarkable moment. We're hearing the word unprecedented. Rubicon Crossing. How should we look at this?
- [02:07]
Laura Davison
This is really just a massive escalation over the past several weeks. You know, we heard Trump, you know, just about a week ago, you know, go to take to social media and tell Pam Bondi, hey, I want to see action on some of these cases through pressure. The prosecutor in the Eastern District of Virginia, you know, steps aside. He a new person who's a Trump loyalist goes into this role and, you know, within a matter of couple of days, we see this indictment come out. So there's a lot of questions because the two other names he mentioned that he want to see investigations into Adam Schiff, a Senator from California, as well as Letitia James of New York. You know, the question is, you know, are there going to be indictments coming for them in the next couple days or weeks?
- [02:43]
Joe Matthew
What does the Department of Justice make of this? There are still some career officials at the DOJ who've never seen anything like this before.
- [02:51]
Keith Ellison
Correct?
- [02:51]
Laura Davison
This is, you know, very unprecedented. There's been a feeling, really, going back, you know, 50 years or so that the Justice Department, you know, does not. It's not the personal, you know, prosecutorial arm of the president. They work for the government and that there's sort of a little bit of church and state separation there, so to speak. That is not at all how Trump sees the Justice Department. And you see, you know, career folks, longtime staff, you know, across the Justice Department, you know, either sort of, you know, raising red flags or stepping aside. And it's, you know, clearly Pam Bondi views her, you know, primary loyalty to Trump rather than to the department itself.
- [03:22]
Joe Matthew
There is not a warrant for his arrest, which is interesting. We're not going to see him in handcuffs, I guess. But there is an arraignment in October. Where does this go from there? He says he's going to fight.
- [03:31]
Laura Davison
He came out very quickly last night with it with a video saying, you know, he's not afraid. You know, go ahead, let's have a trial. You know, it's very reminiscent of what he's said, you know, back in 2017 when, when Trump fired him originally, he said, lordy, I hope there are tapes when they were talking about this conversation. So this is, you know, Comey is not one to. To, to step down, you know, in a fight. But it's not clear right now. The indictment was very short. It was not particularly specific. So some legal experts have speculated that, you know, it's possible that this case could be dismissed. You know, just that there's not enough evidence there to move forward.
- [04:02]
Joe Matthew
Interesting. And, of course, you know, we're already waiting for an emergency Supreme Court ruling on the firing of Lisa Cook. He's keeping the courts awfully busy here, and I'm assuming that they expected that Comey would want to go to trial. So let's get the ball rolling. Right?
- [04:18]
Laura Davison
Yes. I mean, and this is, you know, this is also, you know, Trump's playbook here. You know, he wants to keep, you know, some of these battles in the spotlight. He wants to keep his base happy. You know, this has been, you know, a pretty good week for him in terms of getting some of these deals TikTok done. You know, he's at the Ryder cup today. He's, you know, a couple handful of boos but, but also some cheers.
- [04:35]
Joe Matthew
Is that true? Did you see him get there? I didn't see the arrival. He made it to the course.
- [04:39]
Laura Davison
He's there. He's with his, he's with his granddaugh. Yes. Kai Trump, she's sporting some, her own fashion line today.
- [04:45]
Joe Matthew
Yes. Fashion is 19 years old or something. Is this Don Junior's this is oldest daughter.
- [04:50]
Laura Davison
But it's a, it's a real sort of split screen moment because on Capitol Hill, Hakeem Jeffries is up there talking about how, you know, we're hurtling towards a shutdown deadline, you know, just within a couple of days.
- [04:59]
Joe Matthew
Well, so let's talk about a couple of other things here. I mean, I already said this has been a doozy. I guess next week will be a real doozy when the government shuts down. Are we just qualifying this as inevitable now where it's Friday, there's no deal and no one's talking.
- [05:11]
Laura Davison
No one's talking. Congress has not been in session all week. The Senate's not supposed to come back until till Monday. They may not even start voting on things till Tuesday. Remember, the shutdown deadline is, you know, Tuesday into Wednesday at midnight. House is not scheduled to be back until Wednesday. So this is, you know, the key players are not even in place. Both sides are really dug in. You know, Trump even kind of shrugged off, you know, the sort of the risk of a shutdown earlier today said if it shut down. Shuts down, it shuts down. Both sides are really angling for a fight.
- [05:38]
Joe Matthew
Well, that's for sure. I mean, the big question is going to be how, how long it stays closed at this point. Right. How do you get it back open? And I know that's something that we'll be tossing around here. Democrats, though, at this point are united. Right. You're not hearing about Democratic senators, say, from Virginia or Maryland who might quietly be prepared to vote yes next week.
- [05:57]
Laura Davison
You're starting to see a little bit of commentary. You know, Chris Van Holland came out and said, hey, look, we'd like to, you know, kind of get some of these talks started. Tim Kaine as well, you know, you start to see that the door opening here. Klobuch, you know, was on a call with Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota was on a call with reporters this morning saying that she wanted, you know, look, we're not asking for all of our demands, but we are, you know, we're willing to negotiate here. So you're starting to see a little bit of uneasiness. You know, it's also we're four days out, five days out from a shutdown. This is about the time that the sides start to get a little bit serious. But there's a lot that they need to get through. And you've got Schumer and Jefferies who don't want to be seen as, you know, just really caving into Republicans as they did earlier this year and really took a beating from the base.
- [06:37]
Joe Matthew
Well, we got the countdown clocks up. You know, it's never good when that happens. And we'll just have to live through this together next week and Wednesday is when we would be closed, presumably. I haven't even mentioned tariffs. I haven't mentioned tick tock. It's just a steady hose, a fire hose. Of news from this White House tick tock deal. Not really a deal. We were talking to Matt Shettenhelm at Bloomberg intelligence. He says ByteDance still the primary owner. This runs afoul of the law.
- [07:03]
Laura Davison
This is, you know, I think the thing that, that both markets investors and sort of even just, you know, app users are asking of, you know, this mean the thing that Trump signed yesterday, that order just really sort of keeps the process moving. It does not close the deal. It does not finalize the deal. One of the things that would really sort of shock people yesterday is when Vance came out and said, hey, look, we think that the valuation of TikTok is going to be about 14 billion.
- [07:23]
Joe Matthew
Yeah.
- [07:24]
Laura Davison
That caused a lot of, you know, confusion because far cry we're anticipating somewhere, you know, 35, perhaps size $40 billion. This was all kind of came more clarity was put around that today when, you know, our tech team earlier reported that that ByteDance would still own about 50% of Get a 50% of the revenue share essentially from the company that's supposed to work. This is not what people are expecting. And it means that there's just a lot of details of this already very complicated deal with dozens of investors involved that could be quite complicated.
- [07:53]
Joe Matthew
Well, it's always pleasure to spend some time here on a Friday with Laura Davis and good luck this weekend. I hope it's not a working one. I just said that out loud. Our deputy bureau chief here in Washington, D.C. there's a lot more to talk about, by the way, involving electoral politics today as we're spending time here on Capitol Hill. Member of Congress is running for governor in New Jersey and there's a big story about what's happening involving oppo research into Mikey Sherrill, the representative, Democratic representative from New Jersey. Washington Post now reporting that she and leading Democrats are calling for an investigation. Now what they call a politically motivated leak for unredacted military service records. This is a pretty big deal. The National Personnel Records center improperly gave an ally of the Republican in this race, Jack Cittarelli, on redacted personal information about Mikey Sherrill, including Social Security numbers, the whole bit. It's being called an egregious blunder, a technician's mistake. And we have big questions about what's going to happen next, which is why we assemble our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano are with us. Rick is, of course, our repub strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Jeanne is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Just to start off here, Rick, as somebody who's run a lot of campaigns, and I'm just going to assume you've never dealt with any oppo research. How unusual is this? And what should Mikey Sherrill do about it?
- [09:29]
Rick Davis
Yeah, look, I mean, oppo research is the standard in the industry, right? Not only on your opponent, but also on your own candidate. One of the first things you do is you say, look, let's look at the records. Remember in 1999 with John McCain, we were pulling service records and things like that just to see what our opponents might find. And yet you have to have authorizations to get this stuff right on a FOIA request. It's a very limited amount of information that the archives will give you on a military service record. And certainly better redactions than having your Social Security on every page that they turned over. The ciarrilli campaign, basically. So this is a huge embarrassment for the agency that is charged with managing our national archives. And it's happened before. Don Bacon had his service records released to his opponent. I mean, like, they need to get their act together. Regardless of the requests that come in, we have to depend on these institutions to do their part of the job. And in this case, pretty clear failure.
- [10:33]
Joe Matthew
Wow. The House oversight ranking member, Robert Garcia, who may not have the power to make this happen, is demanding an investigation of what he calls illegal, likely politically motivated disclosure. This comes down to something that happened at the Naval Academy in 1994. Mikey Sherrill and a number of her classmates were not allowed to walk in the ceremony because of a big scandal. Was a cheating scandal going on here that involved a number of students. This is again took place in 1992. The scandal itself, she would have walked in 94. Two dozen classmates were exposed, spelled Jeannie. Cheryl says that she didn't walk because she did not turn in any of her classmates, that she in fact did not cheat on this test. What is the political implication of this disclosure?
- [11:23]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah, first of all, I don't know why you're assuming that Rick Davis hasn't done Apple research. Joe, we both know we have.
- [11:29]
Joe Matthew
Just, you know.
- [11:30]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Okay, I know, I know. You know, I think number one, the timing of this could not be worse for her campaign. I mean, the latest Emmers, I think it was in the Emerson poll had them neck and neck. And of course, we all know that New Jersey has been moving a bit over to the more, you know, I don't know what you want to call it. Reddish, purplish side. So this is going to be a big, big loss for the Democrats if she doesn't retain this seat. And I think, you know, certainly you hear the Democrats you mentioned, Garcia, Hakeem Jeffries, they want to get to the bottom of this. They want an investigation. They may get one. But the question is, was this something that was done by mistake, as they are saying, a technician, or was it truly done in order to undermine her and the campaign? Regardless, the information released is very personal, including Social Security numbers, phone numbers. I mean, the list goes on and on. So incredibly damaging and arguably a violation of the Privacy Act. So whoever did it may indeed be held accountable if they conduct this investigation.
- [12:41]
Joe Matthew
Yeah. You mentioned the Emerson College poll, Genie. They did this with the hill and picks 1143-43. Mikey Sherrill, Jack Cittarelli, 11% still undecided. Rick, what's going on in New Jersey? You buy these numbers?
- [13:02]
Rick Davis
Yeah, I think it's a relatively close race. Citarella's well known candidates run before the legislature and, and so I'm not surprised that it's close. Remember, it wasn't that long ago, you know, we were electing, you know, Chris Christie to two terms as governor of New Jersey. Republicans can compete statewide. It's not a red, it's not a blue state. But the bottom line on it is, is this will upset the apple cart. Right. There'll be a discussion around this. And what is interesting is how Mikey Sherrill will handle it because obviously it brings to attention not just this cheating scandal, but her service in the military. Helicopter pilot, you know, Patriot. It's quite a contrast with Sorelli. And so I think one of these things you have to always look at like, whoa, can this boomerang on Us.
- [13:57]
Laura Davison
Right.
- [13:57]
Rick Davis
I mean, like an attack on her time in the Naval Academy reminds everybody that, you know, she put public service first when she was, you know, 18 years old and served admirably in the military. So at the end of the day, I'm not putting much credibility into the outcome based on this controversy because, of course, the other thing is it looks like political manipulation and Trump leaned in on it, even in his comments. So at the end of the day, it's going to be a close race and we're going to see whether or not the Democratic machine in New Jersey is able to get out the vote. I mean, it is interesting that, you know, basically the youth votes going Democratic and the senior votes going Republican and battles in between.
- [14:50]
Joe Matthew
Well, Rick makes a good point here, Jeannie. It reminds us that Mikey Sheryl has used her military service as a centerpiece of her candidacy here, and that's why this is a story to begin with. She did, we should note, go on to serve in the Navy for nine years, as Rick mentioned, helicopter pilot. The Academy, the Naval Academy website lists her as a notable graduate. She received the Navy Achievement Medal for saving the life of a fellow shipmate while at the Academy and the prestigious Distinguished Public Service Award in 2024. That's the Navy's highest civilian honor. So if you're advising her campaign today, Jeannie, do you tell her to get to the Academy right now, go to Annapolis and film a new ad on campus?
- [15:32]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah, yeah, you might. And I have to say, I think she has done a good job already. Because you read the quote. I mean, what she is telling voters is the only reason that I was kept out of the ceremony was because I refused to turn in my fellow classmates. In other words, I am not somebody who is going to go and, you know, tell who, who was involved. I will keep that to myself. And for many people, particularly in New Jersey, that is a very respectable reason to, you know, to, to, to, to do that. And so I think she has been trying already to turn this around and she follows that by saying, I, to your point, I served 10 years, highest level of distinction and honor. So she is trying, and her campaign is trying to use this to her advantage. And, and she is no snitch, Joe Matthew, and that's what she wants people to know.
- [16:25]
Joe Matthew
You said it. You said it. So is that the bumper sticker? Is that the bumper sticker? Rick, you're running for governor of New Jersey. Hey, I'm no snitch.
- [16:33]
Rick Davis
Okay, let's just be totally clear with our listening and viewing audience, it is a violation of the Academy ethics code.
- [16:41]
Joe Matthew
That, if you are aware, do not turn them in.
- [16:45]
Rick Davis
So regardless of the situational ethics of.
- [16:49]
Joe Matthew
My co panelists, I don't think it's.
- [16:53]
Rick Davis
A particularly good campaign focus.
- [16:57]
Joe Matthew
All right, we covered some good ground here. See, this was productive. We just figured the whole thing, at least what you can't do. Rick Davis thank you. Judy Shan Zaino thank you Bloomberg Politics contributors and the best we have here. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [17:15]
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- [17:59]
Podcast Host
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- [18:19]
Joe Matthew
I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, reeling the city at large over the indictment of James Comey, the former FBI director, something we've been talking about quite a bit throughout the day here. He says he's not afraid bring the trial. And we have a great opportunity to tap the experience and insights of Keith Ellison. A perfect moment for this conversation. Of course, the former congressman, now attorney general in Minnesota, is in town for those Congressional Black Caucus foundation events that we have told you about stretching across the weekend. Has just emerged from a fireside chat at the convention center where he was joined by several other Democratic attorneys general to talk about the rule of law in this country. Mr. Attorney General, it's great to have you on Bloomberg. Welcome back.
- [19:01]
Keith Ellison
Great to be with you.
- [19:02]
Joe Matthew
Got some heavy stuff to talk about today. Yeah. And I'm wondering your thoughts just initially on this indictment. Have you investigated the case? Does the government have a case against?
- [19:12]
Keith Ellison
Apparently not. And it looks like the career prosecutors didn't sign the indictment. It looks like this was obtained by the person who was simply put in there by Trump to get the indictment. So it's not something that is a result of investigation by trained prosecutors looking for the truth. It has all the hallmarks of just a vindictive prosecution. And I think that it appears to me that if you believe the people who actually dug into the case, that it's thin when it comes to evidence. And I think Mr. Comey has every reason to be confident.
- [19:49]
Joe Matthew
Remarkable post on Truth Social by the President on Sunday evening.
- [19:53]
Keith Ellison
Sure.
- [19:54]
Joe Matthew
To Pam. You see this, Pam, we can't delay any longer. It's killing our reputation and credibility. They impeached me twice and indicted me five times over nothing. Justice must be served. Now, some folks are seeing this as a. I hate to keep using the cliche, the Rubicon crossing moment for the Department of Justice is that the level.
- [20:13]
Keith Ellison
Of which you're viewing this, it certainly feels that way. I mean, that particularly Truth Social post, it looks like pure revenge. It looks like we're simply using the Department of Justice as a weapon of revenge against political opponents. I mean, because I'm used to indictments that say, well, on this time and place, you committed this act which violated the criminal statute. Not, you did this to me, so I'm gonna do it something to you. This is simply not how we do justice in America. It is absurd, and of course, it happens. And then within a few days, we see these indictments come out. So, you know, it does portend very, very, very, you know, odd for the future. A lot of people, I think, are now thinking, okay, well, if you're going to do this to the head of the FBI, when other career prosecutors have said that case lacks evidence, it should be declined, who are you going to get next? Who is safe here? And because if the head of the FBI can't. Can't expect basic justice, then who really can in America? Very concerning.
- [21:21]
Joe Matthew
You know, he's mentioned a couple of names.
- [21:23]
Keith Ellison
Yeah.
- [21:23]
Joe Matthew
And was asked about this this morning. They asked him on his way out of the White House, who's next? And do you have a list? Listen to what President Trump said just this morning. It's not a list, but I think there'll be others. I mean, they're corrupt. These were corrupt radical left Democrats because Comey essentially was. He's worse than a Democrat. They weaponized the Justice Department like nobody in history. What they've done is terrible. And so I would. I hope there are. Frankly, I hope there are others. You can't let this happen to a country. You can't let this happen to a country. Wouldn't want to be Letitia James right now. Wouldn't want to be Adam Schiff. Are those the next two?
- [22:06]
Keith Ellison
Well, if you go by what he says, you know, I mean, the bottom line here is that democratic countries don't operate this way. This is what happens in banana republics. This is what happens in countries where the rule of law is not observed. And that, you know, essentially the government is an instrument of somebody who is all powerful and can just direct it wherever they want to. But thank goodness in America, we still have juries, we still have judges, we still have the rule of law. We have people who care about American justice. So I have faith in the American justice system. I would have hoped that there would be a no bill of indictment in this matter, but of course, everybody knows you can indict a ham sandwich. We've all heard that before. But I think that when this matter starts working in the, you know, real machinery of the criminal justice system and motions start getting filed, I have confidence that this matter is going to be dispatched in fairly short order.
- [23:03]
Joe Matthew
It is somewhat ironic that the guy who threw the sandwich at the National Guard wasn't indicted.
- [23:09]
Keith Ellison
Right.
- [23:10]
Joe Matthew
But I'm just being. I'm just kidding around here. If these guys do go to trial, though, James Comey says, let's do this.
- [23:15]
Keith Ellison
Yeah.
- [23:16]
Joe Matthew
Will they be vindicated?
- [23:17]
Keith Ellison
I. From what I've seen, I think yes. But I am also disturbed by another story going around which has to do with the head of Homeland Security, Mr. Tom Holman, who apparently, according to news reports, exchanged $50,000 with the promise of favors to get contracts. That matter is, of course, still alleged.
- [23:37]
Joe Matthew
Yes, he says that they found nothing illegal, no wrongdoing. He didn't deny it, though, which was interesting.
- [23:44]
Keith Ellison
Which is interesting. But apparently there's video, and I think, you know, the public should see it. You know, it should be something that if you did nothing wrong, that it shouldn't be any problem with you releasing the videotape. And we can let other people be the judge of that. But I mean, the problem is you can't, on the one hand say that we're going to just ignore this one because this person's a political ally and we're going to go after these people because they're not. I mean, I'm not sure who the person was, but somebody said, you know, to my friends, anything. But to my enemies, the law, you know, and so this, this is. This can't be the basis of an American democracy. We have to have a fair system. This is what we've all been raised to expect. But it's not what we're seeing right now. And it's deeply disturbing. And I tell you, you know, as a lawyer, you know, you swear an oath, you know, to uphold the law. As a public official, you swear an oath. And these oaths are very important right now. I think that anybody who's going to carry a bar card in their pocket needs to go back and remind themselves what they said they would. Stood for. Stood for.
- [24:52]
Joe Matthew
Interesting. As we spent time with Minnesota's Attorney General Keith Ellison, I have to ask you about one of the other big stories just in the last 24 hours. This deal to sell Tick Tock to a group of U.S. investors. Now, we have to be careful with this because we actually haven't heard from the Chinese. The president says there is a deal and if we take him at his word here, it would not fulfill the law that's on the books as bytedance apparently would still have a majority share. That aside, you're no stranger to TikTok. You just sued the company two months ago.
- [25:21]
Keith Ellison
Sure did.
- [25:21]
Joe Matthew
Over what?
- [25:22]
Keith Ellison
Well, we sued them because we believe that the way that they operate is damaging to the health and mental and emotional health of children. And we're concerned about a number of features, you know, the filters, which we believe have a damaging psychological impact on children, leading to bulimia, self issues, depression, things like that. Also we're concerned about TikTok Live, where you can have a person go on there and perform live and then receive a tip and Tick Tock, it's part of the money. If they don't have proper age verification, you don't have to be very imaginative to wonder what somebody would give a tip to a young girl for.
- [26:00]
Joe Matthew
Yeah, yeah.
- [26:01]
Keith Ellison
If you understand what I mean. It just seems like an invitation to abuse. And then, and then on top of that, there's this endless stream. Endless stream where you can just go on and on and on. It'll capture your imagination and you'll be stuck in there. And it. Teachers, parents have talked about the damaging effect and how we've got to get a grip on it. So we, we know that they've designed their algorithm to be attractive and we consider it to be like digital nicotine. Yes.
- [26:28]
Joe Matthew
Okay.
- [26:28]
Keith Ellison
And. And so we're going to hold Tick Tock accountable whoever owns it, you know, so I've been asked.
- [26:34]
Joe Matthew
So that can transfer ownership. That lawsuit goes to who owns the company Might just.
- [26:38]
Keith Ellison
Yeah.
- [26:39]
Joe Matthew
Wow.
- [26:39]
Keith Ellison
I don't know who we're going to be negotiating with.
- [26:41]
Joe Matthew
You might be talking to Larry Ellison pretty soon.
- [26:43]
Keith Ellison
Well, you know, I'll tell relation. Right. I'll tell cousin Larry. He's got a. He's got to clean up his act.
- [26:49]
Joe Matthew
Well, you said something that's fascinating. You said, like nicotine. Your lawsuit refers to addictive algorithms.
- [26:55]
Keith Ellison
Right, right, right.
- [26:56]
Joe Matthew
Ten years in the future, are we going to look back at social media like we do, do cigarettes now, like we do cars without seat belts? How do we ever let this happen?
- [27:04]
Keith Ellison
I really do think so. I mean, look, as the technology moves at a faster pace than our rules do. Right. And there. There is a place for TikTok. We don't want to ban TikTok. We're not here to shut down TikTok. But. But just like any useful but, you know, susceptible to abuse thing, we need to put the right guardrail around it. And it would be better if they just. If the companies just did that.
- [27:30]
Joe Matthew
Yeah.
- [27:30]
Keith Ellison
I do know that there are company, There are rules that are applied to Chinese users of TikTok that don't apply here in the US so we already kind of know the better way to use the tool, and that's what we have to move towards.
- [27:45]
Joe Matthew
This is a fraught time for attorneys general.
- [27:47]
Keith Ellison
Yes.
- [27:48]
Joe Matthew
On the state level, we've been busy, and, boy, you have been. And we can talk about this in a lot of different ways, but I want to. The fireside chat that you held today.
- [27:56]
Keith Ellison
Sure.
- [27:56]
Joe Matthew
Focused in part on states rights.
- [27:59]
Keith Ellison
Yes.
- [28:00]
Joe Matthew
Has the issue of states rights turned from a conservative one to a Democratic, liberal, progressive?
- [28:06]
Keith Ellison
Cause I think it has. You know.
- [28:08]
Joe Matthew
When did that happen? Six months ago.
- [28:10]
Keith Ellison
You know, it turns out that the issue of states rights, the 10th Amendment, is an important right, although it's not an absolute, absolute right. And so my. One of my great heroes, a man named Hubert H. Humphrey, who was the mayor of Minneapolis in the 1940s, went to the National Democratic Convention and said, we have to walk out of the dark shadow of states rights into the bright sunshine of human rights.
- [28:39]
Joe Matthew
Okay.
- [28:39]
Keith Ellison
And that in many ways brought forth the civil rights revolution that followed in the years after that, and that we're trying to hang on to right now. But, you know, nowadays, states rights, many of Dem ags are asserting the 10th Amendment, saying that, look, you know, this is beyond the authority of the federal government to do. One case that we just saw recently, we had a favorable ruling in a lower court was where the federal government said that if you want to receive federal emergency management assistance, that you have to have your state law enforcement essentially carry out federal immigration responsibilities. We said, no, we have precious state resources. We don't have to do that. And the court sided with us. And this is a debate that's recurring. It happens on a range of issues that when the federal government conditionalizes aid to states, whether it be health care money or agricultural monies or whatever in exchange for or conditionalizing something like getting rid of diversity, equity, inclusion or ICE involvement or it's a common and recurring theme and we're relying on that 10th amendment.
- [29:58]
Joe Matthew
This is a big think part of the story and I'm really glad that you could join us to talk about it. Keith Ellison in town for the cbc. Minnesota's Attorney General, Come see us again. I enjoy the conversation. Thank you very much for your insights. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Washington, this is Bloomberg.
- [30:19]
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- [31:02]
Podcast Host
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [31:23]
Joe Matthew
Important news, as we've told you in the last 24 to 48 hours, involving the war in Ukraine. First, the word from European nations leaders, of course, gathered this week for the United Nations General assembly, in which we've brought you conversations with the leaders of Latvia, Finland, Estonia, who have seen their airspace violated by Russia repeatedly, not only drones, but fighter aircraft. And so the message to Russia, the message through back channels to the Kremlin, was we're prepared to shoot you down next time this happens. The Kremlin responding. And by the way, Donald Trump, of course endorsed that. As we told you, the idea of shooting them down as opposed to intercepting warnings that NATO countries would in fact be ready to do this, getting quite the rebuke from the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov says this is another very significant escalation of tensions near our borders. We heard from the Germans this morning on Bloomberg. Germany's foreign Minister Johann Jadeful had this to say about this idea.
- [32:26]
Rick Davis
They too, Germany, our countries do not.
- [32:30]
Joe Matthew
Have, have any interest in escalation, but.
- [32:33]
Keith Ellison
Russia perhaps wants to lead us into a trap, as you mentioned. But Russia has to know we are prepared for each and every situation.
- [32:46]
Joe Matthew
He spoke with Vonnie Quinn and it's a great pleasure to bring Melinda Herring back into the conversation. Non resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. A rare treat as well to be able to do this in person. Melinda, it's great to see you. Your thoughts on this particular development. There have been a couple important ones this week. Is this an inflection point in the war coming off of that post from Donald Trump in which he suggested Ukraine could actually win this?
- [33:11]
Melinda Herring
In a word, yes.
- [33:12]
Laura Davison
Okay.
- [33:13]
Melinda Herring
So in the last couple of weeks, we've seen NATO airspace be invaded by Russian drones and Russian fighter pilots. And we see this in Hungary today. There's accusations in Hungary, but I'll go straight to the quote that you showed from Moscow. So Moscow is blaming. They're blaming the West, Joe, which is kind of amusing because they created the problem. They're saying that this is escalation and that it's unacceptable, but they're the ones that caused it. Right. This is typical. This is what they do over and over again.
- [33:44]
Joe Matthew
We're no strangers to this. Our aircraft have been intercepting Russian bombers over a last Alaska for the last 40 years or something. Right. What was the aim here, though? Was it an attempt to divide NATO thinking that Victor Orban wouldn't have any part of this conversation, or is it just Putin being Putin?
- [34:01]
Melinda Herring
I think Putin feels like he can get away with it and there's no consequences. So he's. I think this is NATO country number four that he's sent either drones or fighter pilots over in the last month. So we see him upping the income and he hasn't been. He hasn't really faced any consequences other than the Estonians. The Estonians did escort those Russian fighter jets out and they called a meeting at NATO and it was the first time the Estonians had ever done it.
- [34:29]
Joe Matthew
Amazing. We talked to Estonia's foreign minister a couple of days ago from the UN knowing the visceral emotion that Estonians feel, the memories they have of Russians rolling down the street and literally shooting their then parents or grandparents. The occupation that followed, they see that as being possible again, don't they?
- [34:52]
Melinda Herring
Right. They do. History is alive. And history, I think in an American sense, we tend to think of history as this beautiful thing where it's constantly getting better. And that's not the Eastern European view of history. The Eastern European view of history is dark, Joe. And it wasn't that long ago. And people have been this lived memory. And you see the same thing in Poland. Right. You see Roddick Sikorsky's message this week, and he's telling the Russians, we're going to shoot anything down that you fly over our airspace. So it's not even backroom deals. It is direct signals.
- [35:24]
Joe Matthew
We're saying it out loud. So is that the right move right now? What would happen if somebody shot down a MiG31? What would Putin do?
- [35:31]
Melinda Herring
Nothing.
- [35:32]
Joe Matthew
Really?
- [35:33]
Melinda Herring
Yes.
- [35:33]
Joe Matthew
You're sure of that? Because. So then it's not an escalation in this case, it's a measured response.
- [35:40]
Melinda Herring
This is a classic Russian textbook exercise. They are trying to scare us. They have a weak hand right now because Donald Trump has decided, for many good reasons, and I hope we'll get into that discussion, that he supports Ukraine. He is sick and tired of Vladimir Putin's lies. He tried for six months. He didn't make any progress on negotiations. And we saw today or we saw this week that Trump is throwing in for Ukraine. So what happens? Dmitry Medvedev starts talking about nuclear, using nuclear threats again. We can, we can. I mean, we're at Bloomberg. We can, we can put this on a graph. Anytime the Russian hand is weaker, then they resort to escalation already out there.
- [36:20]
Joe Matthew
Or you're just remembering the last time.
- [36:22]
Rick Davis
It is every time.
- [36:23]
Melinda Herring
Mathematical relationship. I'll draw it for you next time I come in.
- [36:26]
Joe Matthew
Very good. There's an equation here. Talk to us more about what motivated Donald Trump, because you know that the line in Washington is he's going to talk about or believe in the message that came from whoever talked to him last. He talked to President Zelensky that day that he sent that post. Did Zelensky somehow convince him of this or were there other voices in his ear?
- [36:51]
Melinda Herring
There were other voices. So President Zelensky is a masterful communicator, but it's not right to give him full credit. So we've talked a lot about Donald Trump, and Donald Trump is not ideological. He can swing back and forth, as you well know, and that drives many people crazy. And it makes it good to be an analyst in Washington. Joe. So to be serious for a minute, though, there are different voices within his administration. We see Keith Kellogg, General Keith Kellogg, and he's a hawk, and he has Vladimir Putin's number and he, he is talking to President Trump regularly. And then we see J.D. vance, and he has an opposing view and he wants to make a deal and he wants the war over as soon as possible. So we see these two camps, but there's more people. Right. This is a complicated situation. It's been going on for months. The person we haven't talked about and I think the most influential person, and we're starting to see more and more of her. Yes, her influence is Melania Trump.
- [37:44]
Joe Matthew
How about that?
- [37:45]
Melinda Herring
Melania Trump doesn't make much of a herself in foreign policy matters, but remember.
- [37:51]
Joe Matthew
What she wrote about the children.
- [37:53]
Melinda Herring
Right, Right. Melania Trump knows what's going on. And we saw this earlier this year where she's talking to Donald Trump about the bombings. And we've seen a massive escalation of Russian bombing of civilian targets of hospitals, schools, children, churches. Melania knows what's going on. And we saw Donald Trump reveal this, but there's more to it. Joe. Her two best friends are Ukrainian, American, is that right? Yeah.
- [38:14]
Joe Matthew
This is fascinating. Look beyond the policymakers then or the officials at the dod. It's what he hears when he goes upstairs to the residence at night. I haven't heard that before.
- [38:25]
Melinda Herring
It's a big piece. So we know that Donald Trump is also. He's not the most moral man, I think is the most polite way I can put it, but he does have a moral conscience. And I think that this issue of children resonates strongly with Melania. Melania's tradition, she's an Eastern European woman and she's made a lot out of being a mother to Barron. And that's her priority. And she knows about this issue. More than 20,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted by Russia. And we saw her write about it and she's talking to Trump about it. And I think that issue does like, there is real resonance there with both of the Trumps.
- [39:00]
Joe Matthew
President Zelensky talked about a weapons system that he asked President Trump for when they met one. He said that could help to end the war that would put Kremlin officials in bomb shelters. Do we know what that is, what the ask was that he made?
- [39:17]
Melinda Herring
We don't know what the system is, but I can tell you there are a couple of easy things that would end the war. If Washington said easy things, let's do it. Yes. I mean, bring some generals on here and they'll tell you what. Do you have long range rockets? Long range rockets will end this war. So you need to enable the Ukrainians to strike behind enemy lines and hit command and control centers. It's a matter of logistics. If the Ukrainians had the ability to hit, they need German Tauruses and they need long range attack and they need the Ability to hit anywhere that the. They need the ability to hit into Russia.
- [39:52]
Joe Matthew
Yeah. Producer James just put a story in front of me here from Axios. This is since we came to air. Zelensky asked President Trump during their meeting to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Is that something we're prepared to do?
- [40:04]
Melinda Herring
That would be a game changer.
- [40:05]
Joe Matthew
That would be a game changer.
- [40:06]
Melinda Herring
So we don't know. So, Joe, I'm encouraged by the news this week. Trump has had a major change. It's a major about face. The Ukrainians have never had a better relationship with Trump than they do at this moment. Right. But Donald Trump didn't commit to anything new. New. It's just a rhetorical change. And with Trump, it's always about the money. Is he going to commit to more appropriations in Congress? At this moment, there's no signs that Congress is going to be doing something more. Tomahawk missiles will be a game changer. But also turning off there's restrictions on U.S. weapons. So when we give Kiev weapons, we give them rockets, we tell them, you cannot strike into Russia. There are limitations. DoD needs to remove those limitations. Limitations. If DoD would remove those limitations, Trump can pick up the phone and call Hegseth right now and say, let the Ukrainians strike into Russia and hit the enemy lines. That would be a game changer. But we also have to provide sufficient missiles as well.
- [41:02]
Joe Matthew
He's promised to not target civilians, which of course, Vladimir Putin has. And getting back to the conversation, the talk about children, what's the path for their return short of a formal armistice agreement? Agreement.
- [41:14]
Melinda Herring
So the children are being returned right now. Joe, I just got back from Kyiv and there's an amazing. One of my heroes. His name is Makola Koleba and he's the CEO of Save Ukraine. And his organization is a non profit based in Kiev. And they have helped save more than 600 children. And it is. Each path is different. But they're able to contact the children once they've been abducted and working with relatives and very fearless people. This is the underground railroad of the modern century. And they're able to get these children home and rebuild their lives. I would love to bring Mikola in and have you have a chat with him.
- [41:48]
Joe Matthew
You've introduced us to some truly fascinating people from Ukraine. Many of them have told us such tragic stories here. They've been very emotional conversations. How much time did you spend in a bomb shelter when you were there on this last visit?
- [42:03]
Melinda Herring
So I was in Ukraine when General Kellogg was there and, and we talk about the Kellogg Shield. Right.
- [42:09]
Joe Matthew
So they know better.
- [42:09]
Melinda Herring
So when General Kellogg comes to Kyiv, it's pretty. It's not so bad. But I spent two of four nights in the bomb shelter when I was there last month.
- [42:17]
Joe Matthew
Two or four nights. This is still their reality, which is why Zelensky says this about the Kremlin. We want them to know what it's like to be in a bomb shelter every night. Will he accomplish that? Will he get this weapons system he's asking for?
- [42:31]
Melinda Herring
I don't know. So this is when we have to get into to speculating about Trump's behavior, right?
- [42:36]
Joe Matthew
That's right. And there's not much productive to be done there short of the Tomahawks being delivered, though. What is the strategy for President Zelensky at the moment? Short of trying to occupy Russian land and even the playing field militarily, what's his next step?
- [42:57]
Melinda Herring
Okay, let's talk about the front lines.
- [42:58]
Joe Matthew
Yeah.
- [42:58]
Melinda Herring
So the front lines are not bad right now. The Ukrainians are holding the line, and there's a Russian offensive, an ongoing Russian offensive. The Russians are not making very much progress. The Ukrainians don't have enough men. They need more materiel. And the Europeans have committed to delivering that. They could use a lot more materiel from America. So we're looking at Trump there to send more over. But so far, the lines are holding. The Russian offensive will start to peter out around Christmas time.
- [43:29]
Joe Matthew
We've got the seasonal factor here.
- [43:31]
Melinda Herring
Right? Right. We have mud, we have leaves. We've all become meteorologists, Joe. So at Christmas time, the. The Russians have to reduce their. Their. Their air, their ground cover because the leaves have fallen and they won't be able to. To use their. Their aviation systems.
- [43:47]
Joe Matthew
No foliage. Fascinating. This remains a war of attrition.
- [43:51]
Melinda Herring
It remains a war of attrition, but the military expertise words expect this war to continue on. So the Kremlin wants to see what it can get. And it's going to continue. Mathematically, the Ukrainians could probably fight for another 18 months. There's a lot of ifs in there, but this war is going to continue.
- [44:09]
Joe Matthew
Yeah. You know, when you're going back December, you want to go? I would love to go there with some time. It would be remarkable to do it with Melinda Herring. Are you kidding? Thank you so much for the on the ground ground update, as it were, and your insights. As always, Melinda Herring with us live on Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com so have you heard the story about the prescription plan? With savings automatically built in, it's where a family of any size can feel confident the cost of their medication won't hold them back. Go to CMK Co Stories to learn how CVS Caremark helps members save just by being members. That's CMK Co Stories.
- [45:11]
Podcast Host
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