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A
Hello, I'm Michelle Hussain and For more than 20 years I was at the BBC. Military withdrawal from Afghanistan. But all the time I was delivering the headlines. I wanted to go further than the news of the day to spend more time with the people shaping our world. And that's what I'm doing here on this podcast, speaking to people from Nigel Farage. Russia needs to retort.
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B
Love you. Trying over Sahar.
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A
To tech journalist Kara Swisher.
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And the tech industry is running wild.
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C
You know, they've gotten what they wanted.
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D
And they've seen a huge run up in their stock prices.
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A
This will be a place where every weekend you can count on one essential conversation to help make sense of the world. So please join me, listen and subscribe to the Michael Hussein show from Bloomberg Weekend. Wherever you get your podcasts, you certainly ask interesting questions. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [01:22]
B
Peeking out of one eye after a late super bowl night, Charlie Pel had a very important morning as well. Did you see who rang the opening bell? New York Stock Exchange. Sydney Sweeney was apparently asking for Charlie Pelik because she thought he was at the stock exchange this whole time. Of course, he's up at world headquarters on Lexington Avenue. The voice of Wall street, not forgotten. I hope you had a good night. We're back to reality. Welcome to the Monday edition of Balance of Power here on Bloomberg Radio. And yes, we express condolences to those listening on 92.9streaming live on YouTube unless you're watching us right now on Bloomberg Originals. Thanks for being with us. Bitcoin just sliding back below 70. I thought crypto would get a lift out of the Super Bowl. With Alphabet's dollar bond sale drawing over $100 billion in demand, this is something that we're going to be talking about quite a bit. Google shares Alphabet up 1%. $326. I have news. It has nothing to do with the Epstein files or the potential closure of the Department of Homeland Security. Because tomorrow is a big day around here and I want you to just file this away for Balance of Power Tuesday editions. Do you know who's coming back? Producer James knows. We told her we'd keep the seat warm. And I want you to know that Bloomberg's Kailey Leinz is going to be back here tomorrow on Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's been a six month walk through the desert. Although I met many roadside prophets along the way and if you were with us, you know exactly who I'm talking about. I've been able to spend time with some great professionals, but we're super excited to have Kelly back. Yeah, it just went right on the terminal. I said it out loud and I hope that Kaylee is listening and watching. Actually, I hope not. Just wait till tomorrow. It was like a walk through the Revenant getting in here this morning. Washington D.C. is still ensconced in ice. It is so cold outside I might have to sleep inside a horse to stay alive. Watch the movie. And as we come off this Super Bowl, I know you're feeling terrible right now. If you're listening to us on 92. 9, you've experienced this feeling before. But a bit of consolation. The super bowl indicator. Does Charlie know about this? I haven't heard anybody talk about super bowl indicator this year. But think about this. This goes Back to the 1970s New York Times. The indicators suggest that a Super bowl victory for the NFL's National Football Conference team, the guys who won, portends a bull market for stocks in the year ahead. A win for the American Football Conference team, a bear market. So there you go. Now you're going to tell me that this hasn't been so accurate in years past. But consider starting from Super Bowl 1. Have you guys seen this? This is amazing stuff. The L A Coliseum, 1967. Tracking Market Reaction to the various champions all the way to 1997. The Super bowl indicator had a 90% success rate. This was a big talker back then. Granted, it has slumped to around 40% since then, so we don't talk about it as much. But hey, Seahawks rally. Now the President's been talking about the Super Bowl. He was posting about the halftime show. You knew he wasn't going to like it. Even though we know for a fact, we've seen the videos, that the halftime time show with Bad Bunny was on the big screens at Mar A Lago last night for the super bowl party. There are big questions as everybody gets back to reality here about, yeah, the Epstein files. Lawmakers are getting their first unredacted view in a private room without electronic devices today. And the fact that no one's getting along and the Department of Homeland Security is likely to run out of money on Friday. We're five days out from a partial shutdown. A single department that includes some pretty important stuff like FEMA and the TSA and Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall's been spending half of her career counting down to shutdown. Here we go again. She's with us in our Washington bureau. You must have been exhausted this morning. Super bowl, day after.
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E
Yeah.
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B
Okay. Five days from now, what happens? Well, I'm going to ask Nathan Dean that, too. So I'm not putting you on the spot here.
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E
Well, as you alluded to, it appears that Congress loves a deadline, particularly one that goes up against a holiday.
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B
Long weekend.
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E
A long weekend. Lawmakers are going to be out of town next week, so perhaps that could spur some momentum. But at this point, Joe, it doesn't look that likely. And to your question about what's going to happen, we know that a partial shutdown, a shutdown that only impacts the Department of Homeland Security, is ultimately not going to have that big an impact on Immigration and Customs Enforcement because that agency received federal funding under the one big beautiful bill to the tune of $75 billion they can use over four years. So that means that we are looking for potential implications here for other agencies under dhs, like fema, like tsa, which we know was really impacted during the last and longest government shutdown in US History and ultimately helped to spur a compromise. And I would expect Republicans to really hit on this point this week. They're going to try to blame Democrats for any delays that you may see, saying that this tactic to try to codify some changes to ice, tack it on to tangible legislation, isn't going to impact ICE if the government is shut down when it comes to that specific department.
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B
Wow. All right. So then it becomes a question of could they put together a patch? And I know that that is is something that's a bit elusive right now. Remember, for the last partial shutdown, there was a debate over how long the continuing resolution should be. They landed on two weeks, which clearly was not enough. Are we talking about another two, couple of months, full year?
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E
I actually asked a few lawmakers this on the Hill last week. I was up there running around towards the end of the week, and nobody seemed to really have an answer on how long it could take to actually hammer out a deal. Because at this point, Democrats have put on the table a list of their 10 perhaps concrete demands that they want to see these new requirements for judicial warrants, what has been called demasking of federal agents, having them not wear an ask a mask during any sort of immigration operations. And some of them, especially that latter one, feels like a nonstarter for Republicans. They feel very far apart on this issue. In fact, President Trump himself has said that at this point, they're not negotiating on those. So that leads to questions about how long this could potentially be drawn out for. Maybe something could happen. It was our understanding that over the weekend, Democrats had floated actually a more concrete proposal to Republicans. But any indications we've gotten so far is that it doesn't seem like they're biting.
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B
Boy, this is a tough moment here because they do seem like they are far apart on some really key issues here. We could be in a world, I guess, where the rest of the government is chugging along, but this one department, dare I say, is on ice. Tyler, talk to me about Jeffrey Epstein today. The president coming off the halftime show last night, is watching all this from the sidelines, knowing that his name, Howard Lutnick's other members of the administration are named, realizing not accused of any wrongdoing. But Keir Starmer's name is not in the files and he could be looking at the end of his political career. What's happening?
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E
No, you're outlining a really keen split screen here that we're seeing. There has been this mounting pressure on the United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer to step down after we saw a flurry of his key aides step down from their posts over the weekend. This has to do with how Starmer had appointed Peter Mendelsohn to be the UK Ambassador to the US he removed him from that post.
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B
That's right.
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E
Back in September. But as we keep seeing these tranches of files come out in recent weeks, that's really renewed spotlight on that relationship. Now, one of Starmer's key aides took what he said was full responsibility for recommending Mendelsohn for that role. But there have been some prominent members in that government that say that the man that actually appointed him should step down. With that said, Starmer has actually gotten a lot of support in just the past few hours from some key cabinet members. The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, for example, threw horse support behind him and he's expected to convene and perhaps release more information. He suggested about how the nomination of Mendelsohn ultimately came to be. But you're exactly right, he's not implicated in the files at all. He didn't know Epstein. And that is perhaps the split screen that we're seeing as the White House faces pressure. And President Trump himself says that it is time for the US to move on. In his words.
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B
Wait, it's really something. So the offense here is that he hired those who were implicated to the Epstein files which is a very different scenario than we're dealing with here in the U.S. ro Khanna and Tom Massie, the D and they are the two members of Congress who forced the discharge petition on releasing the files, are going to be marching over to the DOJ today to review unredacted files is the first day that are available. Tyler. They're going to be holding a briefing later. Any sense of what we're going to hear?
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E
Well, at this point, we'll have to see what they ultimately are able to share and what they do learn. I believe you were the one that actually pointed me to the fact that Thomas Massie has been crowdsourcing on Isn't that something like people what specific files he should be focused on ultimately see where it lands. They can only make hard copies, written copies, no electronic copies of what.
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B
So we're not going to see screen grabs or photographs. Really interesting here. Tyler. Thank you so much. It's just another Monday in Washington. Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, getting us rolling here on the Monday edition of Balance of Power. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
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A
One question.
- [11:10]
B
Here's why there isn't more fear in the Fear Index. One topic here's why debt is now a driving political force.
- [11:17]
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One succinct explanation.
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Here's why NATO needs better drone defenses.
- [11:22]
A
You've got questions about the business stories that affect your world. Let Bloomberg give you the answers.
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Here's why Europe is taking years to.
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E
Phase out Russian gas.
- [11:31]
A
Join Stephen Carroll for here's why, the podcast that drills into one news story each week.
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B
Here's why big Tech tech's soaring valuations have some worried and explains it in.
- [11:41]
A
Just a few minutes with the help of one of our 3,000 journalists and analysts across the globe.
- [11:47]
C
This current transition with AI is happening very quickly.
- [11:50]
F
When people buy EVs, they generally are.
- [11:52]
B
Quite happy with them. Bitcoin is pretty firmly an institutional play.
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A
Look for new episodes of here's why every Friday on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or anywhere else you listen.
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F
Here's why AI isn't taking your job yet.
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A
Subscribe to here's why Today, wherever you get your podcasts, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 A.
- [12:29]
B
Lot of TV for a lot of folks freezing outside, you hunker down on A Super bowl weekend. And we saw more ads than we can remember this morning. Interesting, though, what the ads told us, right, About American culture. It was all AI gambling and GLP1 that right? Am I that? And did you even see a beer ad? I think maybe there was one in there. Nobody drinks beer anymore because of GLP1. Then, of course, we had the halftime shows and the standoff that was created for some reason between Bad Beer Bunny and Kid Rock. There were others who were playing at the Turning Point USA thing, but the. They had a lot of trouble with the lip sync in there. For Kid Rock. They had pyrotechnics. He had the denim shorts on. Maybe it was a monitor thing, but he was really far off the lyric. Anyway, they were supposed to be on Twitter. That didn't work out, so you had to get on YouTube. It was difficult to see. Even with that, 6 million people turned away from the television broadcast and onto YouTube to watch Turning Point USA. Not bad. The weird part is Mar A Lago is not among them. If you look at the videos of the big ballroom, you see Lindsey Graham and others looking up. There's Bad Bunny with the. With the grass on the field. So I guess they did have a chance to see it. And that explains why the President was posting about it last night. The super bowl halftime show is absolutely terrible, he says. One of the worst ever. Now, this is written in present tense. He posted it after it was done. It makes no sense, is an affront to the greatness of America, and does not represent our standards of success, creativity, or excellence. This is a pretty long post. Nobody understands a word this guy is saying. He writes. And the dancing is disgusting, especially for young children watching from throughout the USA and all over the world. The show is a slap in the face to our country, which is setting new standards and records every single day that I mentioned. Well, it's interesting because there was no politics in this. I guess he didn't like the Dirty Dancing, but actually there was no mention of Ice out or anything like that. It was actually a message of inclusivity. At the end with the football, maybe you saw it. The microcosm of American politics and culture, remembering that it was right. Young male Latino voters, and to a smaller degree, young black voters who delivered Donald Trump back to the White House on top of the usual base. That was the demographic that broke Trump. And so there are questions now about whether we're watching that evolve before our eyes. And we assemble our political panel for their take on all of this. You gotta love Dissecting a halftime show with Rick and Jeannie Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis, Jeannie Shanzano. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. And Jeannie is our Democratic analyst and Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. Jeannie, were you encouraged by the fact that Bad Bunny didn't get political or terribly controversial last night?
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D
Yeah, Joe, I have to say it was not a great night for my children who are both big Patriots fans. So it was a pretty ugly night. You know, being from Massachusetts, I'm from Connecticut, they're big fans. So it was ugly that way. You know, Bad Bunny's performance, I don't follow Bad Bunny. I don't know his music. I am probably like Lindsey Graham, not his target audience, but he is the number one streamed artist in the world and boy, he delivered. As a fan of musical theater, it felt a lot like watching a musical go off. And the messaging was absolutely beautiful. It was heartwarming. There was a live wedding. He gave his Grammy Award to an adorable five year old little boy. He sang his heart out. And you know, Donald Trump's got to go back and look at his statistics. About 40 to 60 million Americans speak Spanish, including almost everybody that lives on in Puerto Rico who are all American. So while he may not have good high school Spanish to understand what was being sung, many millions of people in the United States and around the world did. And it was an absolutely upbeat and unifying performance where he echoed what was said at the funeral that Donald Trump talked so much about with Erica Kirk, where they talked about, you know, the only thing that can overcome hate is love. And that was absolutely the message that Bad Bunny was sending.
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B
Last night, Politico compiled reactions from a number of Republicans and from within the MAGA sphere in many cases. Harrison Fields left the White House recently. Former press aide to President Trump. Last time I checked, he wrote on X. My Puerto Rico born grandmother was a full American citizen and she voted for Trump. Former Trump campaign official Bianca Rodriguez says she loved the show and attacked MAGA fans for complaining. Way to go. Alienating your Puerto Rican conservative base, she wrote. Is any of this going to matter in November, Rick, or is this very important for Republicans to pay attention to?
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G
I don't think it's that important to November. I think this is one of those things that kind of drives, drives eyeballs for today. We probably won't be talking about it tomorrow. The fact that the president invested so much of his time and effort talking about it in advance, complaining about it and then attacking it after the fact, it probably was more of a base issue. I don't think anybody else would be interested in this. I doubt if there were very many swing independents watching the Turning Point program. Out of that 6 million, let me see, the trade, 120 million for 6 million, which one would you take? So, yeah, I think this is an issue that I think is symbolic, Right. And when you use the bully pulpit of the White House, of the, of the Oval Office to set a standard, and that standard is, you know, that we're not going to entertain entertainment excellence in Spanish, we're not going to entertain excellence in performance, and we're going to politicize. It actually is the opposite of what Donald Trump said in his statement, you know, which is he wants, you know, creativity and excellence. And I think Bad Bunny like Jeannie, I'm not, you know, I can't claim I'm a Bad Bunny fan, but you got to admit that he's been wildly successful, incredibly creative, and he has created a level of excellence. So he meets Donald Trump's standards for what a halftime show is. Personally, Alabama football. You know what, if you get the marching band out there, you'd make me perfectly happy.
- [19:24]
B
Yeah, I've said that. I got a lot of criticism last time. But there is something to be said for the big brass band. Rick Davis, if you were watching Jeannie at the very end there, and it's all over social media, Bad Bunny holds up football and imprinted on the ball, it says, together we are America. Then he said in Spanish, we're still here. So is he going to be on the campaign trail at some point between now and November?
- [19:54]
D
You know, I don't think so, but who knows? Joe Matthew, he has never been shy about his politics, and last night there were some infused in there. But, you know, just watching and listening to it with the flags you mentioned, the unification message, particularly as it pertains to the Americas, is something that aligns very much with what the Trump administration says or portrays as their approach to foreign policy and the unification of the hemisphere. So it is astonishing that he looked at it and then posted what he did. But of course, I had a sense that he perhaps brought that in his mind and then posted it before he even saw the show. But who knows? But absolutely, Bad Bunny is somebody who speaks to a large contingent of people in the United States and around the world who embrace his messaging. And what he talked about last night was nothing controversial. It was a wonderful performance. And so I don't think it is going to work to Trump's advantage. In fact, I he disadvantages himself with posting this kind of stuff. If anybody is being un American, it is the kind of things he has said about poisoning the blood of our country. Criticizing immigrants for coming here, speaking other languages that nobody has ever heard of, which is a horrible thing. This is the kind of thing that is indeed truly un American.
- [21:26]
B
Rick, what do you make of the fact that the Bad Bunny halftime show was on at Mar a Lago? There's video everywhere from the ballroom last night. You see Lindsey Graham and President looking up at the big show on this jumbo screen. Kid Rock. I don't know if they had him on in another room, but it wasn't where the people were. Does that tell us all we need to know?
- [21:48]
G
Well, it probably indicates that they need to update their tech with some Roku TV so they can actually get YouTube TV at Mar a Lago. That would.
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B
That was my bet when I saw.
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G
It is their standard cable isn't going to get them there. So yeah, I think it's making a lot of money to do.
- [22:06]
B
But like, look, Donald Trump was going.
- [22:08]
G
To attack it, so he had to watch it so he could say I watch it and I was a gas. Right. The only thing that would have allowed this to be a big deal is if Donald Trump himself had actually attended the Turning Point event. That would have been more interest and more on brand for him. So the fact that he didn't do that probably doesn't mean much.
- [22:27]
B
A lot of ads in this game, of course, that people are talking about Jeannie and that's part of the fun. Do you see Mike Tyson speaking From Maha and RFK Jr. We're the most powerful country in the world and we have the most fudgy people. I saw a picture of RFK with the face tattoo that they tweeted out as well. What do we make of the politics in this game, especially from this administration?
- [22:56]
D
Yeah, it's been infused throughout. And I was trying to think back, Joe, it feels like post 911 when they started with U2 and then when we had the wardrobe malfunction with Janet Jackson. It seems from then on this is what we've been getting with both the halftime show and increasingly with ads. You know, somebody reminded me that there wasn't that long ago when more men were watching football than women that a lot of the ads were very different than we're seeing today. So things have changed. A lot of them are infused. But Joe, my favorite ad was the one with Neil diamond song because Andy Sandberg, sweet Caroline, I'm sorry. I know I'm supposed to be talking politics, but you can't get better than Neil Diamond. So that was my favorite. And yeah, Mike Tyson. I could do without RFK Jr. On Super bowl night.
- [23:48]
B
There's a Wall Street Journal story that says the food industry is not happy about this ad, by the way, which was paid for by the Maha Cent. The Consumer Brands association, which represents the big food snack companies, were disappointed to see this kind of rhetoric on such an important topic, ceding fear and misinformation. Interesting reaction here. Rick Davis, you mentioned it. 120 million people. Is this the right venue for that kind of political message?
- [24:19]
G
Well, everybody had a political message some way and form in the past, you know, with these ads. But I got to tell you, Maha, they really get the award for being like totally out, out of sync on this. They have Mike Tyson in an ad in the super bowl talking about wanting to eat real food. Last I heard, he ate Evander Holifield's ear.
- [24:41]
B
Do we want to talk about that?
- [24:43]
G
I'm sorry, I have to. 1997 Big bite right out of that ear. Does he consider that Maha grade?
- [24:52]
B
You know, we're all trying to get more protein in our diets here. It's a GLP one world that we're living, living in. I guess this is. Wow. We better shut this down before we go any further. I'm so glad Rick and Jeannie are with us this day after the mighty Super Bowl. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [25:13]
A
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app App Listen on demand. Wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube, we take a.
- [25:30]
B
Deeper look under the hood just to see exactly what's happening. With quite a nice rebound in tech following the severe selling that we saw last week, culminating with this massive rally on Friday. And a lot of questions over the weekend about what was going to happen today. Nora is our markets correspondent, live from world headquarters in New York. It's like it never happened almost, Nora. Although I see the the NASDAQ composite is still below the 50. We're charging higher.
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C
Yeah, certainly charging higher. We're seeing the NASDAQ 100 bouncing for a second straight session. You're really seeing a reversal from what people were doing last week where we saw it was a bit chaotic, it was a bit volatile. When we think about all of the outflows that we saw from a lot of those software stocks. I'm keeping an eye on Applovin, Palantir, Microsoft, all of these stocks, stocks charging higher. Essentially. You're seeing people in the market out here. They're trying to not only focus on the software stocks, but really broadening out a lot of those gains. And when you see gains in Microsoft, which we know tends to be a bellwether in this space, it really shows you that it's not just isolated to some of these smaller, you know, the software names. It's really Microsoft pushing a lot of these other names higher as well. So really seeing a broad based rally as it pertains to tech. Definitely a different story than what we saw most of last week.
- [26:47]
B
Yeah, even Salesforce is catching a bid here. Nora, are the analysts talking? Because, I mean, it's not like we're, we're moving on earnings on a Monday here. Is this just some bottom fishing that's going on after last week?
- [26:58]
C
Yeah, from a lot of my sources, you're telling me that people are buying the dip. They're really looking for any areas where they can avoid risk and really just trying to assess the landscape to see where opportunities lie. But I mean, you do have some people still a bit split. I mean, we did see that Microsoft was hit with its second downgrade in less than a week. That coming from Melius Research. So even as though there still maintains and continues to be optimism on a broader scale, you are still seeing people punching holes in the idea of an optimistic forward looking event.
- [27:32]
B
There's always somebody here to punch holes and things, Nora. But Bitcoin's back above 70,000, so there does seem to just be a broader sentiment here to move things higher following last week. Do we think that this was the big washout?
- [27:48]
C
I mean, you did see last week where we saw bitcoin really falling for some historic lows. And you're really seeing it trying to recoup a lot of its losses, as you mentioned now hanging around that 70,000 handle. But when we think about bitcoin more broadly, it's really speculative. So the fact that you're seeing it alongside tech rallying today, it really just shows you that traders are out in the market and they're really looking for opportunities and a way that they maybe were a little bit apprehensive about just last week.
- [28:17]
B
Mm. We're through the bulk of the high tech earnings. Right. I said McDonald's, Coke, Cisco, DraftKings this week. Anything have your attention or are we through the the bumpy stuff.
- [28:27]
C
Yeah, I mean, we saw a lot of bumpy stuff, that's for sure. But I mean, looking ahead, I've just really got my eyes on a lot of the different companies that are going to be reporting. You mentioned McDonald's. I mean, so when we're thinking about the consumer, it's going to be really interesting to get a read on how the consumer is doing in terms of affordability. And speaking of the consumer, we're also going to be getting a lot of data out this week. We're going to get that jobs report finally coming through on Wednesday. We're going to get CPI a read on inflation as well retail sales. So there's a lot to digest this week in addition to the earnings that still continue to come through. Joe?
- [28:58]
B
Yeah. All right. Let's keep talking about it. Nora, thank you so much. Norma Linda live in New York. As we watch the markets get closer to where they were before last week's sell off, we're almost there on the NASDAQ, up 1%, up 234 points, 23 to 64. And the S&P 500 is up about a half percent right now, 6,970. Thanks for being with us here. On balance of power as we turn back to Washington, the prospect of a DHS shutdown and of course, which halftime show you watched last night. Nothing has changed. Well, maybe that last part, but nothing really has changed in the story since the last time we spoke with Patrick McHenry. And that doesn't mean he isn't hearing things that I'm not. Bloomberg Politics contributor, former Republican congressman, former speaker pro tem with us here in studio, former chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Great to see you, sir.
- [29:47]
F
Always great.
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B
You, you, you improved all of our Sunday morning. I want to just let you know. And it's nice to see you back here. So let's park the halftime show for a minute. This is going to be no deal this week, is there?
- [29:59]
F
No. Look, when, when we had this agreement for the Senate for a two week continued resolution for Department of Homeland Security, we talked about it here. There was obviously a deal that you, you had in form in order to have such a tight timeline for, for action on the next appropriations bill. It takes three or four days, the Senate, for the Senate to do anything. And that is if you have agreement and if there's disagreement takes longer. So I thought then that there was a deal that we did not yet see. But it's evident at the end of last week that there was no deal coming into this week. They would have to have an agreement within the next 48 hours in the Senate for some, some, some real deal to actually be passed in a law in time to keep Department of Homeland Security open. That's not gonna happen. It's apparent that that will not happen. So then the question is for the Democratic minority in the Senate, do they permit a continual resolution to keep the Department of Homeland Security open or do they have a shutdown? Yes, and I think that's where the politics shift. If you have a shutdown Department of Homeland Security, that would then advantage the administration and President Trump and what has been a pretty rocky month that they've had.
- [31:12]
B
So CR is the answer. Then eventually, and I guess the question becomes duration, and I can't get an answer from anybody. Do we do another two week or just say, all right, rip off the band aid, full year, check back in?
- [31:24]
F
I think a full year is less likely because of the politics of the left and what the left is saying to the leaders of the Democratic Party. So then it's a question of to what end. If it's a shorter duration and there is no deal evident.
- [31:39]
B
Yes.
- [31:40]
F
Why do that? Why extend the pain? Why keep bringing this issue up if you can't come up with some legislative win to advantage one party or the other? So then it's a then. So we're all watching and we're all going to watch in lifetime of what that number is, it'll be something odd. It's not going to be some number built off of science. But I think the best outcome for both sides would be a long term continued resolution for the Department of Homeland Security and then fight it out.
- [32:09]
B
On the campaign trail, I'm hearing chatter that Democrats might be impressed by a deal that does not include their demands. Granted, body cams were already out there, per order of Kristi Noem, but in fact, a change at the top of the agency. We're giving you body cams and we're giving you Secretary Noem. Do we have a deal? Have you heard anything like that?
- [32:30]
F
Oh, that's a nice rumor, but I don't think President Trump is in that type.
- [32:34]
B
Not going to happen.
- [32:35]
F
That is not. And if you've listened to his response, yes, he sent home and in to take over the Minneapolis situation, which in traditional Washington parlance is the cabinet secretary getting demoted and some special operator coming in to fix the problem. It's clear that's what it was. But the President has not talked in those terms and the politics haven't evolved in those terms. So I don't think the president is likely to sacrifice a cabinet secretary and then that cabinet secretary would have to be filled. That goes through the whole nominating process, which is would be a huge challenge to fill the that secretary position.
- [33:13]
B
There's nothing else that Republicans can offer, right?
- [33:15]
F
No. And so this is a question of whether or not Democrats see the political advantage of continuing to continue the agency funding and then on the campaign trail to let this go, or do they insist on a shutdown, at which point they are potentially giving President Trump that upper hand when the Democrats are shutting down Homeland Security. Just the name of the agency is enough that you should see the bad politics of it.
- [33:43]
B
It's fascinating. I'm just looking down at the calendar here. It's two weeks from tomorrow.
- [33:47]
F
State of the Union, February 24th. Big night.
- [33:51]
B
Is that an inflection point in this debate? Do they need to get something done by then or does it advantage the president to say Democrats are holding up the Department of Homeland Security when he's.
- [33:58]
F
In the Speaker's roster and thus why a long term continuing resolution is to the Democratics, Democratic Party's favorite. And President Trump will use that bully pulpit that every president has in the State of Union to drive his message. That is the opportunity for the president, if nothing happens before then, to turn this debate on immigration back to his advantage. It has been a political winner for him since he came down that golden escalator a decade ago. Immigration has been his biggest winning political, I would say not policy, but the biggest, boldest sort of statement of who he is is built around immigration. He needs to get the advantage back. He's got to get the groove back. And in order to get on with the midterm elections and hopefully bring a little more support for Republicans that we're currently seeing in polls.
- [34:50]
B
Does Mike Johnson need to worry about decorum this year or we're just, we assume that this is the octagon every.
- [34:55]
F
I think with Nancy Pelosi ripped up President Trump's speech. I think we've got full blown, no decorum in the House.
- [35:02]
B
Representatives, where were you in the chamber for your last State of the Union? Were you sitting like right in front of Marjorie Taylor Greene? I mean, what was it like to be in there with people yelling at this? Yeah, I can't imagine.
- [35:12]
F
Oh, I've seen everything. I've seen everything. And nothing would surprise me about the State of the Union. And now you see the progressive activists left when they're winning primaries like a New Jersey special election, New Jersey couple weeks ago. You see, the energy of the Democratic Party is in those progressive, loud, outspoken folks like Jasmine Crockett.
- [35:30]
B
Right.
- [35:31]
F
And the far left of the Democratic Party. So I think you're going to see some shenanigans here.
- [35:35]
B
Oh, my God. Yeah. I don't doubt that at all. And I guess it's made for tv. We'll be there one way or the other. I'll be curious to hear how the President attacks this whole issue and exactly what the response will be. Did you watch Kid Rock last night?
- [35:51]
F
So we can't even have one halftime show?
- [35:53]
B
No. What do you mean? That was the microcosm last night, wasn't it? You saw the President's reaction. By the way, I'm sure all your friends at Mar a Lago were texting you bad bunnies on the big screen. They had him on the big screen. It wasn't Kid Rock. We saw the videos last evening. What does that tell us about our politics and culture in the country where actually Bad Bunny, love him or hate him, didn't say anything about ICE or. It was actually a pretty inclusive message. And the President had that. That very critical post waiting the second he was done.
- [36:22]
F
Well, so the halftime show. Let's just go back in time.
- [36:25]
B
Sure.
- [36:25]
F
This has always been a standout performance from a standout global star and even a special moment for whatever the biggest act on the planet is at that moment. I think we saw that last night with Bad Bunny. I think you saw the NFL seeking a new demographic here in the United States. You saw this emphasis from Bad Bunny about American. Right, the emphasis there. So there's a big statement there. But you also had a big statement by the president that this is a divided moment for America. We need to think of it as a divided moment. So we'll see what the. How the politics shake out on this. This is more representative of the divide than in creating the divide.
- [37:04]
B
Sure.
- [37:05]
F
And our politics have become far more tribal now than in. Than in generations.
- [37:10]
B
Well, yeah, it's the definition of tribal, I guess, when you have several halftime shows to pick from. But if you're a congressman from North Carolina and you just saw this president elected with the help of young Latino men, and we've got a midterm election where we're going to keep driving here. Are you worried that the politics have changed already in a year?
- [37:29]
F
You look for omens. And the bad omens that Republicans saw last was a special election in Texas that swung 31 points against my partner.
- [37:39]
B
Yeah.
- [37:40]
F
It is a message that you have to focus in on what the American people care about. And if you're listening to the American people, they do want safety in their communities. They do want criminal criminals deported. Criminal illegals deported, yes. They want border security, yes. But they don't want to see activists gunned down in the streets and watch it over and over on video. So this is a moment where the president needs to get back to immigration in the way that he was winning on in the last election. And he needs to get back to an economic message and delivering on an economic policy set on affordability. Those are the driving forces of turnout for the midterm.
- [38:18]
B
We know he can get along with anybody Mamdani in the Oval. Why doesn't he have Bad Bunny come the Oval Office? Well, hanging out something play the tape back first. You heard it first. Patrick McHenry. I think I know which one you were watching last evening. Kid Rock couldn't get the lip sync to work. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every Weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime Eastern@Bloomberg.com I'm Carol Massar. And I'm Tim Stanvak inviting you to join us for the Bloomberg businessweek Daily Podcast.
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A
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B
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