Balance of Power: "House Poised to End Historic Shutdown"

Date: November 12, 2025
Host: Joe Matthew (Bloomberg)
Co-Host: Tyler Kendall
Key Guests: Liz Pancati (Groundwork Collaborative), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)

Episode Overview

On what is expected to be the final day of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, Bloomberg’s Balance of Power unpacks the political, economic, and policy implications with sharp analysis and high-level guests. The episode centers on the shutdown's economic fallout, the complications of missing federal data, the ongoing debate over tariffs and potential direct payments to Americans, and an exclusive conversation with Congressman Ro Khanna about the political battle over government funding, food assistance, and transparency in government.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Shutdown's Economic Impact & Government Data Blackout

(00:55–05:25)

• Kevin Hassett's Economic Outlook: Discussion of earlier comments from economist Kevin Hassett, who predicts the shutdown has dented GDP by as much as 1.5–2% for the year, with inflation "not all the way down," but rates possibly ready for significant cuts.
  • "He agrees with the presidents that rates can be a lot lower." (Joe Matthew, 00:55)
• Data Gap Issues: Government data, especially from the BLS, will be playing catch-up after the shutdown. October’s economic snapshot is largely unrecoverable.
  • "We’re never going to fill these gaps that we have for the month of October, are we?" (Joe Matthew, 02:27)
  • "Some of the data that goes into… the jobs report is reported on a pretty continual basis... It will probably take a couple of weeks to get those stale reports, and then hopefully by the beginning of the year we’ll have an accurate picture." (Liz Pancati, 02:43)

2. The Labor Market, Private Data, and Holiday Hiring

(03:17–04:48)

• Lower Quality Private Data: Private-sector data (ADP, Gusto) has been inconsistent, with starkly high layoff figures and weakened small business hiring.
  • "Unfortunately, the private sector data … is not always the most high quality or the most sensitive… We’ve seen ADP kind of all over the place." (Liz Pancati, 03:29)
  • Concern for small businesses, which employ half of U.S. workers and feel the brunt of interest rate hikes and tariffs.
• Bleak Holiday Job Outlook: Seasonal hiring is down, retail is cautious, and consumer spending is soft.
  • "We got information from Challenger last week that they were really at historic highs… Spirit Halloween really slowed their openings..." (Liz Pancati, 03:55)

3. Challenges for Monetary Policy and SNAP Benefit Fallout

(04:48–06:47)

• Lack of Data Hampers Fed Decisions: The FOMC December meeting will proceed without a complete economic picture, which may affect rate decisions.
  • "The bigger issue is that we are unlikely to have that data by the Fed meeting... for the current snapshot, which is the more concerning thing to me than missing those data points." (Liz Pancati, 05:48)
• SNAP Benefits Disruption: 42 million Americans missed SNAP benefits; schedules for restoration still unclear.
  • "The administration has not committed to a specific schedule for when those benefits will resume going out." (Liz Pancati, 05:25)

4. Tariffs, Uncertainty, and Speculation on Direct Payments

(06:47–12:35)

• Tariff Headlines and Supreme Court Uncertainty: Mixed signals abound on tariff authorities and possible Supreme Court reversals (IPA tariffs), leading to uncertainty for businesses and consumers.
  • "It’s really all over the place and quite incoherent... I am not running out to put $2,000 on my credit card because I think the government will be sending me a check..." (Liz Pancati, 07:24)
• Tariff Revenue Reality: The president’s claims of trillions in tariff revenue are contradicted by reality; available funds are vastly smaller and already allocated.
  • "There are not 3 to 4 trillion dollars worth of revenue. We have at most seen, you know, two to $300 billion taken in..." (Liz Pancati, 09:25)
• Legal and Consumer Impact: Any refunds from overruled tariffs likely benefit companies (via class action), not consumers.
  • "The President is separately suggesting that these magical dividend checks will be sent out to consumers… This is really not a thing I think the American people can rely on." (Liz Pancati, 09:25)
• Targeted Tariff Reductions: Implementation is inconsistent and unlikely to materially reduce high consumer prices ("coffee’s up 20–30%; ground beef is up double digits").
  • "Do I expect, you know, bananas to magically become cheaper at the grocery store in the next couple of weeks? No." (Liz Pancati, 11:38)

5. Grocery Prices: Political Football

(12:35–13:56)

• Presidential Rhetoric: The President’s focus on "groceries" and price claims are scrutinized—seen as political tactics that may miss the real economic pain.
  • "He says it’s an old word, a beautiful word, a strange word, grocery. And then he started using BLT as a descriptor of what grocery is…" (Joe Matthew, 13:00)
• Public Frustration and Elections: Recent elections (VA, NY, NJ, GA) revealed that cost of living is a central concern for voters.
  • "Americans are really frustrated by the prices they’re paying, whether it’s at the grocery store, at the gas pump, for rent. And I think the president hates to be an unpopular guy…" (Liz Pancati, 13:27)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Data Loss:
  "We’re never going to fill these gaps that we have for the month of October, are we?"
  — Joe Matthew, 02:27

• On SNAP Outage:
  "The administration has not committed to a specific schedule for when those benefits will resume going out."
  — Liz Pancati, 05:25

• On Economic Uncertainty:
  "Missing one month (of data) is not catastrophic. I think the bigger issue is that we are unlikely to have that data by the Fed meeting in a couple of weeks…"
  — Liz Pancati, 05:48

• On Tariff Checks:
  "I am not running out to put $2,000 on my credit card because I think the government will be sending me a check in the next 30 days and I would not suggest that anyone else do so."
  — Liz Pancati, 07:36

• On Grocery Price Politics:
  "Has he ever been in a grocery store?"
  — Joe Matthew, 13:00

[15:43] Interview with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA)

Shutdown Politics, Epstein Files, Crypto Ban

Stance on Shutdown Vote

• No Vote Announcement:
  "I’m a no vote because I don’t believe we can sit idly by while 20 million Americans face astronomical spikes in their health care." (Ro Khanna, 16:22)

  Focused criticism of both Senate process and presidential priorities: aid to Americans, not Argentina, should take precedence.

• Urgent Food Aid Need:
  "The president held this country hostage. He refused to release aid, food aid for Americans, which would have cost $9 billion while he’s giving $40 billion to a corrupt libertarian in Argentina." (Ro Khanna, 16:54)

Epstein Discharge Petition

• Momentum for Epstein Files Disclosure:
  "I believe the House will pass this and it’s going to send a message for the full release of the Epstein files and for the Senate to pass it." (Ro Khanna, 18:25)
  "One of the things we got today were emails where Jeffrey Epstein is talking to Ghislaine Maxwell saying that Donald Trump is aware that there are underage girls at the Epstein estate." (Ro Khanna, 19:26)

• On Institutional Lapses:
  "You’re telling me that the FBI and the Justice Department couldn’t do that? Of course they could. They haven’t taken this investigation seriously. That’s why Congress has gotten involved." (Ro Khanna, 20:14)

Crypto Ban & National Security

• Anti-Crypto Corruption Bill:
  "My bill is simple. No trading of cryptocurrency by any elected official, whether it’s in Congress, whether it’s the presidency, whether it’s the Supreme Court as an appointed person." (Ro Khanna, 21:36)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Shutdown Economic Impact: 00:55–03:17
• Labor Market & Data Gaps: 03:17–04:48
• SNAP Benefits & Policy Concerns: 04:48–06:47
• Tariffs, Refunds, and Direct Payments: 06:47–12:35
• Grocery Prices & Politics: 12:35–13:56
• Rep. Ro Khanna Interview: 15:43–21:56

Summary Notes

• The shutdown is ending, but its economic aftereffects—missing data, real pain for SNAP recipients, and policy confusion—will be felt for months.
• Inflation persists, with food and retail prices increasingly a political flashpoint.
• The administration’s messaging on tariffs and relief checks is confusing and, per experts, likely misleading.
• Rep. Ro Khanna voices progressive frustrations on health care, food aid, and government transparency, pushing for further investigation and reform.
• Broader themes: Voters are frustrated by high costs, incomplete data hampers sound economic policy, and transparency remains a major political issue on Capitol Hill.

This episode provides a comprehensive, clear-sighted look at the state of the shutdown, the risks of policy-making during data droughts, and the structural frictions in American fiscal and political life, all in real-time as Congress prepares to end a historic standoff.