Bloomberg Host (2:39)

Interesting. What to bring John Seaton back into this conversation as Megan Scully spends some time with us here on balance of power is the founder CEO, Echo Canyon Consulting, a Republican strategist who was talking with us a bit earlier. And John, I'm glad that you stayed on the line for an important moment here for Speaker Johnson. This is done now, so we move to reconciliation. Will this be the skinny reconciliation bill that we expected, or will Republicans try to pile on to fund more than DHS or more than ICE and CBP in this case?

John Seaton (3:12)

I think there may be an effort to do that. I do think that the appetite right now is for a skinny reconciliation package that just focuses on ICE and border security could certainly be wrong there. But I think that that's really where the appetite is. I think that's where Republicans are on the strongest footing politically and that's where I this to go once they get back.

Bloomberg Host (3:33)

Does reconciliation get every Republican vote or will Mike Johnson, John Thune have to work for it?

John Seaton (3:41)

They'll have to work for it, no doubt. And when you have such narrow majorities, every Republican knows that they could be the deciding vote. And so they may have things that they want or issues that are important to them. But I do think that both the speaker and the majority leader in the Senate have done a really good job, as I said earlier, of wrangling these votes, getting to, you know, 50% plus one and putting things on the president's desk. So I don't expect it to be easy, but I wouldn't count either of those gentlemen out. I think they've done a really, really good job with very narrow majorities and frankly, pretty rambunctious caucuses on both the House and Senate side.

Bloomberg Host (4:19)

All right, John, I'm glad you stayed on the line. John Seaton, Echo Canyon Consulting A Republican strategist speaking for Republican leadership in that case, Megan Scully, is this possible to get this done in the next four weeks? The president wants the reconciliation that is on his desk by June.

Megan Scully (4:33)

The narrower it is, the easier it is to get done. These things do tend to become a Christmas tree, though, especially in an election year. So there are going to be people who want to attach things like a salt increase, which of course was obv. Capital gains has floated into the mix, but it seems to me that leaders are going to keep this narrowly focused on ICE and CBP. And they're talking about a reconciliation 3.0 this summer, the odds of which I think think are quite difficult, especially as we get fully into campaign mode for a lot of these lawmakers. And they want to be home. They don't want to be in D.C. casting votes. But but that is sort of a TBD for.

Bloomberg Host (5:19)

Okay.

Megan Scully (5:19)

For the Capitol.

Bloomberg Host (5:20)

So let's talk about FISA for a minute. That's the other thing that needs to be taken care of. FISA702, the warrantless buying program, expires tonight. We're just talking about it a short time ago with our panel. House passed a three year extension. It also comes with a ban on the Fed using digital currency, which is said to be a nonstarter in the Senate. Think John Thune called it dead on arrival. What do they do?

Megan Scully (5:44)

So they're definitely smelling the jet fumes in the Capitol right now and lawmakers are eager to leave. Yes. They're not scheduled to be in town next week. So we could see something like a short term extension maybe being voice voted at some point today or we could see this sunsetting and being taken up when they come back. I'm not really sure.

Bloomberg Host (6:09)

Would the, would the executive branch, does the president have any authority for some sort of temporary extension? He needs Congress to do this.

Megan Scully (6:16)

Yes, he needs Congress to do it. It is an authorization and that falls under Congress's wheelhouse for sure. We would kind of be in, as we are so often these days, in a bit of unchartered waters.

Bloomberg Host (6:29)

Interesting. Megan. This is going to be an interesting experience to witness when they come back from recess. After that. We're in primary season. Right. Is the store closed on Capitol Hill?

Megan Scully (6:42)

That is the usual assumption. Right. That summer becomes, during an election year, summer becomes all about the campaign trail. These lawmakers, particularly Republican lawmakers, are being met by angry constituents back home, though. So it wouldn't surprise me if they did stick around D.C. and tried to get some goodies passed, maybe in a reconciliation 3.0 package, like I said, to try to address affordability and some other issues that are certainly becoming sort of front and center in the midterms.

Bloomberg Host (7:14)

Well, it's really great to have you're our hero for jumping in here with the breaker because I'm sure she's needed in the newsroom. Meghan Scully, who runs our Capital Influence team and the DHS shutdown now on the verge of coming to an end. We watched all of this unfold before our eyes. Live here on balance of power. And that's why we do this every day. Stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.

Bloomberg Host (9:10)

The senator's good to go. Excellent, because we've got breaking news for him as well. Was delighted to hear that Senator Steve Daines would be joining us today. The Republican from Montana is live on Capitol Hill and we welcome you back, sir, to Bloomb TV and radio. The longest partial shutdown in United States history appears to be nearing an end. This is fascinating. The House actually passed funding for most of Homeland Security with just days to go before missed paychecks. Once again, are we finally putting this behind us?

Senator Steve Daines (9:41)

Well, we must put this behind us. It's frankly ridiculous. We have civil servants trying to do their job and think they can't get a paycheck. But it was good news coming out of the House last night. They got that important step moving forward and getting it passed. So there's still a bit more work to do. But that was an important step forward and I'll tell you kudos to Speaker Johnson for pulling that off. He's got the toughest job in America. Thankfully, they got the right boat last night.

Bloomberg Host (10:08)

The matter of a central bank digital currency ban has held this up between the two chambers. Senator, is that water under the bridge now or is that something that needs to be dealt with?

Senator Steve Daines (10:20)

Well, it's not going to pass the Senate if something like that is attached to a bill and so that needs to be separated. I think we're going to make progress there on the FISA reauthorization. I'm hearing just latest literally reading text message before I came on the air that we're going to get consent most likely for a 45 day extension which will give time for Mark Warner to continue to work with Republicans. Remember Mark Warner tragically lost his daughter. As a father, two daughters, I can't imagine the pain. We need to give him some time and I'm thankful the Senate will come together, it looks like give a 45 day extension temporarily on FISA. The real work done after the next

Bloomberg Host (11:01)

couple weeks I want to get a little bit deeper into fisa. But before we move there is is a central bank digital currency ban, a poison pill in the Senate it would be.

Senator Steve Daines (11:15)

We didn't have the votes to pass it here in the Senate. And that's why though the House kind of moved forward there that there's a reason that you know the founders call the hot swirling tea and then it spills over on the cooling of the saucer in the Senate. We're going to cool things off on that.

Bloomberg Host (11:31)

I got you. Interesting. So a 45 day punt on FISA. This is what the House likes to call the Senate jamming the House on this matter. Do you suspect that before we get that far you'll have buy in from all hundred senators to make this work?

Senator Steve Daines (11:49)

I don't think we can get anything with 100 senators on it in today's world. But I think we'll get enough to get it passed. I think we'll get the, we'll get the temporary 45 day which we have to. It's got to be done through unanimous consent. So in that case it would be 100 senators the best. Just a clean extension for 45 days. You think about we're under one of the greatest threats with the Iran war at the moment. This is not the time to be monkeying around with causing Pfizer to go dark.

Bloomberg Host (12:15)

What would happen if it expired tonight? People don't talk about that. What would actually change?

Senator Steve Daines (12:20)

Yeah, well, we would lose the capabilities which are very important to ensure we keep an eye on the bad guys who are using cell phone type transmissions to organize perhaps attacks on American. So this is a fundamental part of keeping our nation safe. There are many examples of where this has been used in the past to preempt and stop an attack on American soil.

Bloomberg Host (12:44)

I want to talk to you about what's happening in Iran here as your colleagues today grill Secretary Pete Hegseth about the way this war is being conducted, namely your Democratic colleagues. The president today said to be looking at new war plans, being briefed by the CENTCOM commander. And the Supreme Leader in Iran says they're going to be protecting their war industry's nuclear material and missiles the same way they do their borders. Senator, are we going back to war?

Senator Steve Daines (13:14)

Well, I know this. The Iranians respond to one thing and that's a maximum pressure campaign. They respect and respond to force. And President Trump is using a maximum pressure campaign, keeping all options on the table, whether it's military force, of course, economic sanctions, the stranglehold right now in the Strait of Hormuz that is going to of course devastate the Iranian economy. But the president needs to finish the job. I'm confident he'll do the right thing. This is ending a 47 year war that Iran really has cast upon not only allies, the Middle east, but also the United States of America in terms of the leading sponsor of terror in the world. This is something that President Trump is not afraid to address and something that our children, our grandchildren will be thankful for. This Winston Churchill kind of moment that President Trump is taking here to keep America and the rest of the world safe.

Bloomberg Host (14:05)

Well, with that said here, we know that it could be some time longer, it could be weeks and maybe months before the strait is reopened and this conflict comes to an end. God forbid there's an actual peace deal at some point. Senator, I've been hearing from more Republicans off the record about an AUMF that once we get to the 90 day mark, assuming the President fulfills that 30 day extension, I don't know if you're expecting a request on that, that Congress will have to have a say when it comes to how much we're spending, what the goals are and so forth. Would you Support at the 90 day mark in authorization for the use of milit military force?

Senator Steve Daines (14:44)

Well, we'll cross that bridge we come to it. I mean, at this point we want to make sure President Trump has all the options that he needs as the commander in chief. The most important responsibility of the commander in chief is to keep the nation safe and secure. Iran was very close to having nuclear capabilities and we saw with that missile that was launched that splashed near Diego Garcia, it shows that a 2500 mile capability with the medium range ballistic missile that puts most of Europe, most of the European capitals in range of a possible nuclear ballistic missile from Iran. So thank God President Trump took the initiative before Iran took the first shot. It's not only the intercontinental ballistic missile threat with nuclear warheads, but also the ballistic missiles that they were continuing to build that would have overwhelmed the defenses certainly of Israel and many of our allies. And so President Trump preempted that. And look, when you have an ideology led by these ayatollahs that chants death to America, death to Israel, you better take them serious.

Bloomberg Host (15:49)

Looking at the price of gas today, Senator, I'm guessing you're checking from time to time as well. We're at $4.30 nationally. And as I look around the map here, Montana's actually got a four handle. You're about 410 for the average statewide. If you dare live in California, you're paying $6 on average, which is pretty shocking to see with crude oil in the triple digits here. Gas prices like this. How long can our economy, how long can your constituents in Montana put up with this before we start talking about an economic downturn?

Senator Steve Daines (16:20)

Well, there's a reason why you got a lot of Californians moving to Montana. There's one of them right there.

Bloomberg Host (16:25)

Okay.

Senator Steve Daines (16:26)

I got a lot of other reasons as well. But, you know, it's not lost on all of us, including myself, filling up my Ford pickup there back home last weekend. Where gas prices are at in Montana, it's a problem certainly for the consumers, problem for our farmers and our ranchers who depend on lower cost inputs and not just on gasoline and diesel, but also on fertilizer. I know this is front center in the president's mind as well. We're going through some short term pain at the moment, some increases in gas prices. But you go back to what happened, the Ukraine crisis, when Putin launched the war there. We saw, we saw gas prices double. We saw them come down dramatically over a relatively short period of time as well. So it's a very elastic market. The price is elastic. And I'm confident we're going to see the prices come back down as President Trump finalizes this conflict.

Bloomberg Host (17:15)

Well, he has said it will plummet as soon as this war is over. And that remains the question, how long that might be. Senators, stay in touch with us. We'd like to continue this conversation on Bloomberg. That's Steve Daines, the Republican from Montana. Stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Bloomberg Host (19:03)

Thought we'd be talking about this Supreme Court ruling with our panel. It was a big deal yesterday. A little more than 24 hours ago, right? The Voting Rights Act VRA might send states back to the drawing board all over again. Again following a partisan gerrymandering that we saw move through Texas, California, Virginia, now in Florida. This is a new wrinkle. But then we got a big breaker that brings our attention to the state of Maine. All of course in the name of the midterm election cycle. Pretty remarkable development here on a race that a lot of people hadn't started looking at closely enough. The governor of Maine has dropped out of the race. Janet Mills, supposed to be the Democratic hope to knock down Senator Susan Collins? Not so much. This is a two term governor, by the way, and couldn't raise the money to make a credible stand. The statement is wild. While I have the drive and passion, commitment and experience and above all else, the fight to continue on there. You see it on your screen if you're with us on YouTube. I very simply do not have the one thing that political campaigns unfortunately require today. The financial resources. What's Chuck Schumer been doing here? Couldn't get the money to make a credible stand against Graham Platner the oyster farmer who has had quite the extent of bad press and he continues to fly above it. And this is where we start with our political panel. Glad to stay with me. In studio today, Democratic strategist Megan Hayes is back with us, former special assistant to President Biden and Republican strategist John Seaton is here, Founder CEO, Echo Canyon Consulting. John, great to see you. Meghan, welcome back. Did you see this coming? As a Democrat, why would Chuck Schumer go to this length tap a two term governor when there wasn't enough money to go around?

Megan Hayes (20:55)

You know, I don't think that any Democrat saw the pitfalls of fundraising across the board that were going to happen this cycle. I think they thought things would start to pick up with donors and they just haven't picked up in the same way that I think they thought they were going to.

Bloomberg Host (21:06)

Amazing. John, what's this going to mean for the general? Is this good news for Susan Collins?

John Seaton (21:11)

This is great news for Susan Collins. She was looking at running against a very popular two term governor from the other party. Now she has someone, as you point out, with a very spotty past, very controversial statement, tattoos from the Nazi era. This is, it's a target rich environment for her. And I'm sure that they are high fiving at Susan Collins headquarters this afternoon. Afternoon.

Bloomberg Host (21:35)

Wow. Do you agree with that part?

Megan Hayes (21:37)

Yeah, I think it's going to be an uphill battle. I think that people were not hitting Graham Platner the same way that Republicans are going to come after him. And I think that's part of the money conversation. Was Janet Mills going to continue to spend money and Graham Platner back at her in a tough primary or are they going to focus all of their resources on Susan Collins? And I think that's what the party chose to do. I don't think that she made this decision in a vacuum. I think it was made with, you know, Chuck Schumer and probably Graham Platner. They all probably talked about it and this was the best path forward and probably Democrats best chance to beat Susan Collins.

Bloomberg Host (22:05)

How does Platner continue to push back on the images and the stories that John just mentioned? Or does any of this not matter anymore? We're in the age of Trump. You don't apologize, you just keep going, right?

Megan Hayes (22:18)

Yeah, I'm not sure that it matters. I'm not sure it matters to the people of Maine. He's been 40 points ahead of Janet Mills for a long time. I mean he's polling. He is really far ahead in the Polls. It will just be interesting to see when some of the oppo research comes out from the Republican Party and there's ads continually run. The Republicans have a very deep war chest. And that will come to play in Maine, the main Senate race, because it will matter, because the balance of power in the Senate is, you know, has to go through Maine.

Bloomberg Host (22:45)

Interesting. John, walk me through the anatomy of oppo research. In this case. You've got just an embarrassment of riches, right, with this particular campaign. How do you dole it out? How do you use it? You start putting tattoos on billboards. Or, or is there some truth to what I asked? Meghan, in the age of Trump, it's pretty hard to shock people.

John Seaton (23:09)

It is. And it remains to be seen how shocking people will find Mr. Plattner's past statements, his past views on African Americans, on women, on Jewish people, the body arc that he put on himself, all of those things. Of course, Maine voters are going to decide. And in this particular case, opposition research sometimes involves meticulous searches through public records and things of that nature. In this case, most of the opposition research is Graham Platner's own words. His posts on Reddit, his posts on social media, pictures of himself with his shirt off. So this is kind of an opposition researcher's dream because it's all right there in Graham Platner's own words. And I think that Republicans are going to have plenty to choose from when it comes to prosecuting the case.

Bloomberg Host (23:53)

Again, him, an oppo researchers dream. What do you do with that if you know it's coming?

Megan Hayes (23:59)

I mean, I think he's had a lot of roadblocks already, and he's going to be constantly on an apology tour. I think you just have to continue to stick to your home base and what your policies are and hope for the best. I think that he pulls really well in certain places in Maine, but where. And, but I don't think that it's necessarily where all the moderates are. So he's going to have an uphill battle once, once this race gets going, and it's going to be very expensive for both parties.

Bloomberg Host (24:19)

I think it's pretty simple. Free lobster rolls. You buy everybody a lobster roll. My cousins from Maine are here, so I've got lobster rolls on my mind. We've got breaking news. By the way, this is the Fast and Furious today, man. Don't blink, because if it's coming out of the White House, it's going to be pretty quick. I told you that the President pulled his nominee for Surgeon General. He now writes on Truth Social. I am pleased to announce I am nominating Dr. Nicole Safier to be the next surgeon General of the United States. Nicole is a star physician. He writes rights who has spent her career guiding women facing breast cancer through their diagnosis and treatment while tirelessly advocating to increase early cancer detection and prevention while at the same time working with men and women on all other forms of cancer diagnosis and treatments. This is a pretty long post, he says. She's also an incredible communicator in all caps for some reason who makes complicated health issues more easily understood by all Americans. Doctor will do great things for our country and help make America healthy again. Congratulations, Nicole. Our country has long been waiting for you. This, of course follows the news just a couple of moments ago that Kacey Means nomination had been pulled. A very controversial pick from the beginning based largely around her lack of support for vaccines. John, what do you make of this news here and the sort of rapid fire of these headlines? I guess it was kind of a slow boil for KC Means. But what do you make of the pick here? We'll just she be confirmed.

John Seaton (25:46)

Yeah, I mean, I think that, you know, generally speaking, the United States Senate, the Republican Senate has, has confirmed the president's nominees with a few exceptions, obviously. Be interested to see what Chairman Cassidy has to say about this particular nomination. He has been very, very active in questioning the president's nominees on his committee. So I'm very interested to see what he has to say. I think right now I, I would guess that she'll be confirmed, but there's still a long way to go.

Bloomberg Host (26:15)

All right. I don't know if it's Nicole Safire or Safier. This is the director of Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center. What do you make of this kind of. I mean, President Biden went through this. You've got a nominee who's not working out. How long do you let him rest before you pull the trigger on somebody else? And do you have to get it right the second time?

Megan Hayes (26:33)

Yeah, you absolutely have to get it right the second time or you're going to have an acting for a very long time. It takes an incredible amount of resources and an incredible amount of time to go through committee and then to get to a vote. They also have other judges that they want to get confirmed and other nominations going through that. I would suspect the Senate does not want to waste their time on someone that they don't think is up to the job. And I would hope that the leg affairs team at the White House has already talked to Senate Republicans. And this is going to be smooth sailing. But you just really never know with this White House what you're going to get.

Bloomberg Host (27:00)

Well, I suppose not. This is an interesting moment in time here for President John Seaton, who is said to be considering the revolving door.

Megan Hayes (27:08)

Door.

Bloomberg Host (27:09)

We've seen a number of departures recently, and I bring this up because Pete Hegseth is back on Capitol Hill today. He had a grilling yesterday in the House, at least from Democrats, about the job that he has done so far. He's getting it now in the upper chamber. Do you think that door starts swinging once again? Whether it's Hegseth, Kash Patel, pick the name that you want. Or is it the president's job right now to keep things calm? Calm, don't apologize, keep driving forward.

John Seaton (27:39)

Yeah, I think that the president would probably like to see this team stay in place at least through the midterms. American voters notoriously don't like chaos. American voters notoriously like, you know, like to have confidence that things are going to remain fairly calm. And so I think that for the time being, the president would rather keep the team he has on the field in place. It would not surprise me at all, all towards the end of the president's term that that folks may start looking for what their next position is going to be, whether with the potential 2028 campaign or in the private sector. But I think until, until the midterms, the president would very much like to see folks stay in place.

Bloomberg Host (28:19)

It's Sapphire, by the way. We got that from the boss in New York. Thank you, Bob. This is a name that you want to keep handy because we will be talking about Nicole Sapphire for some time. Just came came off the Truth Social, one of the more interesting stories of the day, by the way. It's really funny as we live now in the TMZ Washington, but Amazon has its own brand as well. Remember the Melania documentary that Amazon spent, What was it, $40 million or something to get their hands on the Melania documentary. At that same time, when President Trump was coming into office, they had big plans. Now, remember, this is Jeff Bezos, Amazon, right. He did curry favor with the boss is the idea here. It wasn't just the doc. There was a conversation about bringing back one of the greatest television shows of all time. Cue the music, CC The Apprentice reboot, not starring Donald Trump. He's got another job right now, as you might have heard. This one would be with Don Jr. And the best part of the story is nobody told him about it. We all woke up to the same story this morning with people familiar saying executives at Amazon internally discussed casting someone very close to the president. Yes, his oldest son. Discussion still in the early stages, they say, and Amazon has not approached the Trump family. We're just all talking about it on the air. But if the show gets made, it would appear on Amazon Prime. Amazon, MGM Studios head Mike Hopkins and other executives, they say, started talking about it early last year at the same time the Melania documentary was purchased for distribution. Is this John Seaton a good idea for the president to get your fired back on tv?

John Seaton (30:12)

You know, I generally try to stick to politics, but I will say that it is politics. President Trump's career and his son does have a pretty significant media presence as well through his podcast and his appearances on television. So it'd be interesting. I'm sure a lot of people would watch.

Bloomberg Host (30:32)

Can you believe that was on for 14 seasons? I was actually kind of blown away to look back and see it was on for that because then we had Celebrity Apprentice, right? Remember Gary Busey? Could Gary Busey be part of this? Maybe.

Megan Hayes (30:41)

I did not watch it, not for one season. So I am not.

Bloomberg Host (30:44)

You didn't watch one season of the Apprentice?

Megan Hayes (30:46)

No, no, did not. And I will not watch it if it comes out on Amazon prime either.

Bloomberg Host (30:51)

With Don Jr. No. Can I just ask, what's the deal with Eric? Is Eric ever going to get a little bit of love and respect here? Nobody's talking to Eric Trump about hosting this. You could put the two brothers on there.

Megan Hayes (31:02)

I mean, I'm sure he's making his money quietly where I think that's true.

Bloomberg Host (31:06)

Maybe there'll be a crypto. Would be sponsored by a crypto thing. I don't know. John, you're lucky you're saved by the bell. I'm out of time. Time. It's the best story of the day. Maybe after the Royals go into Front Royal. But these are the stories that we keep you up to date with here on Bloomberg. We have a great panel for you. I think we've proven that Megan Hayes is here and so is John Seaton. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every Weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime Eastern@Bloomberg.com.