Loading summary
Transcript63 lines
- [00:00]
Joe Matthew
You need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click, building slides faster than ever before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat Bloomberg.
- [00:32]
Bloomberg Host
Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. You made it to the threshold of the weekend. Thank you for spending part of it with us on the Friday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio streaming live on YouTube. Always search Bloomberg Business News Live if you want to find us here in the studio watching us live. Always on Bloomberg Originals as well. Big weekend. You got your chicken wings and chili ready I hope? Of course we're going to start with the Olympics, then we'll resolve to the Super Bowl. The President will not be present for either of them. He's headed to Mar a Lago after signing session in the Oval Office this afternoon. And of course we're going to be talking about the politics of both of these events. J.D. vance, Marco Rubio are over in Milan watching the Olympics here and we're looking at a lot of split screens of the two of them pretending to have fun together. The big party at Mar a Lago super bowl party, you know, will generate some news on Sunday and exactly which halftime show is on all of the TVs. It's part of the reason the President says he's not going this year, right? Is the bad bunny thing. So he'll have kid Rock on, I guess the alternate Turning Point USA halftime show to which I say the puppy bull gets no respect. Let's turn now to geopolitics. We're going to start here. We've got news on the tunnel project in New York. We've got news at least kind of news on Iran. It's one of these agree to continue meeting situations with Is that true there's adult dogs in the Puppy bowl this year? I hadn't heard that Elizabeth. Meetings went to a different venue between the US And Iran settling in Oman. That was the request by Tehran. And Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, weighed in on this yesterday.
- [02:46]
Joe Matthew
Let's listen, the president has obviously been quite clear in his demands of the Iranian regime. Zero nuclear capability is something he's been very explicit about.
- [02:58]
Bloomberg Host
And he wants to see if a.
- [02:59]
Joe Matthew
Deal can be struck. And while these negotiations are taking place, I would remind the Iranian regime that the president has many options at his disposal, aside from diplomacy, as the commander in chief of the most powerful military remembering.
- [03:15]
Bloomberg Host
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are at the table here. Right. Talks in Oman with Iranian officials at what is a clearly delicate moment here. A lot of folks think that flotilla we've got off the coast of Iran is there for a reason. And Donald Trump has a history of using the firepower when he assembles it. So let's see what we're hearing from the White House. Bloomberg Washington correspondent Tyler Kendall is with us here. We're hearing signs of, you know, cautious optimism, Tyler, but then you see the USS Lincoln pointing straight at Tehran. I guess we'll have these two parallel actions for some time. What are we learning about talks today?
- [03:50]
Joe Matthew
Right. So we've yet to get the readout from the US Side, but we have been hearing from Iran. And as you framed, they're essentially agreeing to more talks. These were talks about having additional talks. Iran said that they went very well. It was widely perceived as a really positive development. We saw oil prices fall, for example, after soaring this year, in part due to just what has been escalating tensions in the region. But earlier this morning, it almost felt like the bar was being lowered. We heard from Iran that this isn't going to be an end all resolution. I don't think anybody thought that that was going to happen. They said that this is all about the broader issue. They're not going to get into finer, which sort of tracks and makes sense. Right, because we actually went into that into today with, I think it's fair to say, contrasting parameters from each side about what was going to be discussed. First, the venue changed, Turkey to Oman. But then it appears that Iran had gotten what it wanted, which was for this to be bilateral talks only, focused on its nuclear program. Whereas we know the US as said as such from the secretary of state, Marco Rubio this week that they want to see those talks really expand. They want to talk about Iran's ballistic missile program. They want to talk about those proxy militia groups that Iran props up in the region. They want our regional partners to be involved in these conversations as well, to talk about some greater stability in the Middle East. And Iran, as of now, it appears, got what they had wanted, which is for this to be framed solely between the US And Iran when it comes to their nuclear program.
- [05:20]
Bloomberg Host
Really interesting, Tyler. So to agree to meet again, I guess, is a good sign. But there are questions about timing here as well and whether the president's going to put some kind of ultimatum on this conversation, knowing that it's directed toward the nuclear program. We're also starting the Olympics this weekend. Does that buy Iran a couple of weeks?
- [05:41]
Joe Matthew
Perhaps. I'm not sure what the calculus would be there, but I can tell you that our analysts at Bloomberg Economics actually described these talks as a stalling tactic. The White House itself has long said that diplomacy is always on the table, but they have also said there is a range of options on the table. President Trump himself hasn't shied away from that threat, that there could be strikes. And Bloomberg Economics right now is forecasting that a strike on Iran by the US Is actually likely, considering that we've seen such a buildup in US Military assets in the region. Now, we've seen this armada, essentially the USS Lincoln carrier strike group. That doesn't necessarily mean that there's going to be a big attack. There are a lot of different scenarios, scenarios on how this could play out. But we're hearing a lot of talk about potentially a targeted strike. So. But of course, none of this has happened yet. We're just sort of forecasting what could potentially happen. But it's important to note that that possibility really hasn't been taken off the table. And in fact, Bloomberg News was reporting earlier this morning supertanker operators are now speeding their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on fears that we could see escalation since earlier this week Iran had targeted a US Flag oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. No, no one was harmed. They had backed away. But we know that this is a critical waterway that Iran has previously threatened.
- [07:04]
Bloomberg Host
Well, it's something that we're going to be watching through the weekend. And that analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence, I'm really glad that you mentioned, because they are usually right, I have to admit. And they're a really smart team watching this from a lot of different angles. Tyler, we've got a breaking story that's coming out of the administration that we're both learning about here together. White House exploring opening an antitrust probe in into homebuilders. Did this just go red here? James, this is a big one. Exploring opening an antitrust investigation into US Homebuilders as they sharpen a focus on tackling the country's housing affordability crisis. If you're with us on YouTube, you're looking right now at the reaction here. Toll Brothers is holding up, but DH or Dr. Horton rather is down one and a half percent. Lennar is down two and a half percent. And this could just be the beginning. If we have an administration that's going to be turning the screws here on homebuilders. The Department of Justice could open this probe in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the discussions. This is just now happening. Pulte now turning negative down to its low of the session, down a little more than 1%. Tyler, this would not be the first time that this administration tried to get to the housing market. Having recently proposed the president, at least, at least through executive action banning institutional buyers from owning single family homes.
- [08:17]
Joe Matthew
Well, actually, you recall the President, through that executive action, actually asked the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to look into potential antitrust violations when it comes to institutional investors in this space. So this sort of does track. I think it could be fair to say that perhaps we did see something like this coming. Could have been in the pipeline. Interesting reporting here, though, to, to frame this in the context that the White House has been really trying to refocus the narrative when it comes to affordability. And we know that houses, the cost of, of homes and housing has been a huge focus. We heard it yesterday during the Treasury Secretary's testimony on Capitol Hill. This is an area that the President really wants to focus on. In fact, it's a plank, you'll recall, of President Trump's campaign. There was this whole, you know, rollout of what lowering home prices could ultimately be. And it appears that this is the route that he's trying to take as we head into the midterms.
- [09:17]
Bloomberg Host
Really interesting. This is one that's going to be perking through the day. A possible antitrust probe into homebuilders from the White House. We've got less than a minute, Tyler. I thought we'd be talking about this a lot more today. The New York, New Jersey Hudson Tunnel project is being halted after the White House pulled funding. Is this officially over? This is a $16 billion project with funds already allocated.
- [09:38]
Joe Matthew
Right. So this, today was the deadline for them to have that funding reinstated by the federal government. You will recall this is funding from the bipartisan infrastructure bill that was pass in 2021 and President Trump halted it back in October when we were seeing the start of the government shutdown. I know we're almost out of time here, but as of now, President Trump is saying he will not release those funds. Reporting he asked for Dulles to be renamed in order to get them named. Yep. And Penn Station and reporting that Chuck Schumer said no. Of course these are his constituents in New York.
- [10:09]
Bloomberg Host
Wonder when the last time was Donald Trump was in Penn Station. We're bringing Houlihans back, baby. That's a thousand jobs. We'll have more on that story. Tyler Kendall, thank you. Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc. SEC Registered Advisor. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Aut Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.
- [11:49]
Joe Matthew
Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 program.
- [11:54]
Bloomberg Host
Brought to you by the word Chrom the bus. And if you're old enough to remember, this is history repeating itself. We spent some time Yesterday with Patrick McHenry, the former Speaker Pro Tem, of course, now free to speak as a Bloomberg Politics contributor talking about this heated debate over the Department of Homeland Security. You know as one week ago we were up there in the Senate talking about the government shutting down and one week from now we might be doing that very same thing unless we're in the House. But the problem is that these 10 demands on restrictions surrounding ice or running into a wall with Republicans when it comes to demasking and some of these other things. So could we in fact have another World in which we're living under a cromnibus. Let's bring back Patrick McHenry from yesterday. Makes me feel like we've gone back in time. Okay. Because when President Obama had his approach to immigration, which was daca, Republicans in the House said, we don't want to fund daca, we don't want to fund your immigration policy. So we funded all of government except for the Department of Homeland Security and it was called the CR Omnibus. The Cromnibus. Yeah, the Cromnibus. Ah, taking you. It's a way back machine. This is amazing. Yes. So happens we are coming back around and now it's the left saying they don't want the rights immigration policy. Yeah. And nothing is new again. Nothing is new again. The Chromly bus is not some sort of hybrid pastry as Mr. McHenry just described. I plugged it into Gemini. A chromly bus, a $1.1 trillion federal funding package passed December 2014 to avoid a government shutdown. Close your eyes and imagine this next Friday. It combined a long term omnibus spending bill for most agencies with a short term CR for yes, Homeland Security. Megan Scully remembers the Cromnibus. And I wonder if they've already written the story for next week. She runs our Capital Influence team here in Washington. The big question of course is will Homeland Security shut down next week or will we have something like this?
- [13:55]
Joe Matthew
Well, first of all, I don't appreciate you aging me, but it will. It is just, just the Department of Homeland Security should say the rest of the government is funded under the deal that was struck at the very last minute last week. But I think that we are Republicans in the Senate in particular are saying the only way to get a deal here is to extend this short term funding a little bit longer, essentially buy more time. They're going to need 60 votes to do that in the Senate though, and they're going to need a majority in the House. So it's. They're running up against really fierce opposition from Democrats who see this as their leverage to get their demands regarding ice, you know, taking masks off agents and such through. So it is. It's going to be hard to see how this really shakes out here in the next few days.
- [14:46]
Bloomberg Host
Well, that is a little bit scary knowing that the two sides seem to be oceans apart on things like de masking. What do you think of this list of demands? What are you hearing from your sources on whether that goes anywhere, any of these elements going to be in a piece of legislation?
- [15:00]
Joe Matthew
Well, Republicans yesterday said it Wasn't even the beginning of negotiations for them that they saw this as a wish list, sort of an aspirational goal by Democrats. But, you know, in any negotiation, Democrats are shooting high in their, in their first, their first offering. So Congress is gone. It's the weekend after all. So they will be back next week. And I think that we will certainly get a better sense of where they are. What we'll be watching certainly is where things stand come Monday. We have a lot of, you know, there will likely be protests throughout the weekend regarding, you know, ice across the US and then you have Bad Bunny's super bowl halftime show and the counter programming from Turning Point.
- [15:41]
Bloomberg Host
That's right.
- [15:41]
Joe Matthew
That the president will be tuning into.
- [15:43]
Bloomberg Host
Yeah.
- [15:44]
Joe Matthew
So the fever pitch surrounding this issue isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
- [15:49]
Bloomberg Host
Soon.
- [15:49]
Joe Matthew
And whether that is something that keeps the two parties apart or if it's something that potentially fuels a compromise, I don't think we're quite there yet. They don't get to the compromise position on the Hill until they're up against the deadline.
- [16:04]
Bloomberg Host
So we'll be meeting here at this time next week. You know, I've heard from a number of folks on the Hill talk about maybe there is some sort of offering that Republicans could make to avoid some of these. We have body cameras, as Kristi Noemi has already said, offered by the Republican side. What if Kristi Noem was offered and then we can get to some of these other. Could there be a compromise with a move like that?
- [16:28]
Joe Matthew
We're not seeing any indication change at the moment that that could happen. You know, the president obviously has put Tom Homan, his borders are into Minneapolis, which has basically sideline Noem there. He has, he's stuck with her through this, though, at least, you know, publicly. I think Democrats, though, want something in law, you know, some, some kind of executive action, be it a change at the top or an executive order. Their signaling is not sufficient. They want something that will withstand the test of time.
- [16:59]
Bloomberg Host
Got it. Megan, thank you so much. Knowing you were a young intern when the chromibus happened, that that makes Megan about 25 years old today. So we appreciate your aging with that chromly bus. Hashtag chromly bus. Look it up if you don't remember. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Great to have you with us on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You've been hearing about the bounce back on Wall street that includes crypto, bitcoin. Look at this. Up over 12% now, just about to hit $71,000 a coin. Overnight, it fell to 60. Is that the floor? I wonder if Tim Stanwick is looking at it that way. He joins us now live from world headquarters in New York, is not only one of the forces behind Bloomberg businessweek Daily, but he's also the host of the Bloomberg Crypto Show. And so we're seeking wisdom here. Tim, it's great to see you. You were a voice of reason at a very scary moment for a lot of crypto investors last evening. Now it's party time today. Is this a technical bounce? What are you hearing? Well, that's certainly what it seems like. I mean, because bitcoin doesn't have any fundamentals. Technicals is kind of all we have to go on, and round numbers are kind of technicals when it comes to bitcoin. So some analysts are pointing to that support that we saw at 60,000 as being that level for a bounce. But look, it's a risk. On day, you were just talking about the equity markets and the rise that we're seeing in equities today, some big names notwithstanding. Maybe people see this as, okay, well, it was sold off enough, and there's an opportunity for us to buy here because we see value in this. But as difficult as it was to explain yesterday's decline, Joe, it's as difficult to explain as today's increase in the price of bitcoin. Wow. Well, that's a little bit scary because part of the justification for what happened yesterday, part of the explanation, and you please add more color to this if you can, was that there was a deleveraging on the S&P 500 that people needed to sell stocks and undue leverage on that side to cover their losses in crypto, and that became a vicious cycle. Is that happening in reverse today, or is there, in fact, a change of sentiment here when it comes to bitcoin specifically? Well, it seems like there is a change of sentiment, at least with what you see in terms of buying today. But that sentiment is really across the board with different cryptocurrencies. Ether is up more than 12%. XRP, which is Ripple's cryptocurrency. That's up more than 30%. Right now. You have Solana up 11.8%. So there's a lot of bullishness happening. But. But this is coming from a place where there was a lot of. Of selling off, and there has been a lot of selling off. I do want to remind everybody, bitcoin was, you know, north of $125,000 per Bitcoin that was back in October of this year. So it wasn't that long ago. And it's still down, you know, more than 35%, close to more than 40% since then. I do have some numbers for you, Joe. About those bullish bets that were unwound in the last 24 hours is. According to data from Coin Glass that's cited by Bloomberg News, about $2.1 billion of bullish bets across all cryptocurrencies were liquidated at the same time. Investors pulled $434 million from US ETFs for Bitcoin on Thursday. I'm looking forward to getting the data for today and seeing if, you know, that much was put back in. We'll have to wait and see, right? That is fascinating. You know, you think about the folks, Tim, who bought into crypto after Donald Trump got elected, because that was the promise. I mean, even this is what Michael Saylor was talking about on the strategy call last night. This is about President Trump, his embrace of crypto. Making America first in the crypto space as America's top regulator. This is something you can bank on. And they're underwater now. Having watched this go to the moon and back over the past year. You talked to Paul Krugman about kind of the sentiment behind crypto and this idea of it being a store of value. So really interesting conversation on BusinessWeek Daily yesterday. Let's listen to what he said. A lot of people sold bitcoin as.
- [21:03]
Derek Stevens
Being the next gold.
- [21:04]
Bloomberg Host
And it turns out that in the face of doubts about stability, doubts about politics, the next goal turns out to be gold.
- [21:12]
Derek Stevens
Not, not bitcoin.
- [21:13]
Bloomberg Host
I think it's a big wake up for people. You know, maybe this isn't actually going to be an enduring asset. So I, you know, no, it's, again, it's really, really hard. If you ask what, when people make for price forecasts for bitcoin, I always wonder on what basis. Yeah, it's not like you can do a price earnings ratio on this thing.
- [21:31]
Derek Stevens
Because there's no, no earnings, no services. That's all just pure faith.
- [21:36]
Bloomberg Host
But it does feel like we're seeing a real crisis of faith right now. So, Tim, if, if the next gold is real gold, what does that leave for bitcoin? It simply trades with the nasdaq. That's, everybody's trying to figure that out right now. I mean, it's not trading with the Nasdaq. Nasdaq over the last few weeks, it used to do that and we would see, you know, risk off days for, for bitcoin when the NASDAQ was sold or oversold. But that hasn't really happened. I mean we're close to all time highs on, you know, major equity averages right now. So the identity crisis is something that people have been talking about over the last few weeks and I guess that's a big question moving forward. What, what is the, what is the purpose here of this cryptocurrency? Man, if you're asking that, we better keep talking. Tim, thank you. You've been great these last couple of days. Tim Stanwick on the program that follows this one. Bloomberg Businessweek Daily live from New York poly markets. 75 chance of Bitcoin hitting 75k in February an 8% chance of hitting 50k this month. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this. Support for the show comes from public. On Public you can build a multi asset portfolio of stocks, bonds, options, crypto and now generated assets which allow you to turn any idea into an investable index with AI. It all starts with your prompt. From renewable energy companies with high free cash flow to semiconductor suppliers growing revenue over 20% year over year, you can literally type any prompt and put the AI to work. It screens thousands of stocks, builds a one of a kind index and lets you back test it against the S&P 500. Then you can invest in a few clicks. Generated assets are completely customizable and based on your thesis, not someone else's. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing Brokerage Services by Open to the Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Advisory Services by Public Advisors, llc, SEC Registered Advisors. Generated Assets is an interactive analysis tool. Output is for informational purposes only and is not an investment recommendation or advice. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
- [24:01]
Joe Matthew
Catch us live weekdays at noon and.
- [24:03]
Bloomberg Host
5Pm Eastern on Apple, CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube. Quick breaker here. Just noticing on Twitter another retirement in the House of Representatives Republican retirement just announced by Mark Amadei of Nevada. Writing Serving the people of Nevada has been the honor of my lifetime. Please see statement below. And there you have the announcement of the retirement. Thank you for the honor. Every achievement worth doing began with listening to Nevadans and fighting for our values, threatening the Republican margin evermore as we make our way into this midterm election cycle. Another fascinating turn as we consider the balance of power in the United States House. Incidentally, we're going to bring you to Nevada in just a moment when we talk to Derek Stevens making his triumphant return here to balance of power on this super bowl weekend. We're going to get a good sense of what's going to be happening at Stadium Swimming circa and the rest of Fremont street that he owns. But as Charlie mentioned, I just quickly want to delve into what's happening here in the markets with Nora. Melinda, this downturn that we're seeing in homebuilders is pretty severe and it's coming straight from the White House as potential antitrust action is invoked by the administration. Nora, this is not playing well with most of the homebuilders today. What are you seeing in New York?
- [25:28]
Joe Matthew
Yeah, Joe, not really playing well with the homebuilders. I'm looking at an index S15 home that tracks a lot of the biggest US publicly traded homebuilders in the United States. And we are seeing shares of that index. We're looking at it down just below flat. So we are seeing it paring some of the deeper declines that we did see earlier in the session here. But really what the focus is right now for the Trump administration is on affordability. I mean, we know that's what's been on the mind of a lot of voters right now. So you're certainly seeing Trump coming in here, the administration more broadly trying to crack down on the housing market and find a way to make it a bit more affordable. That's what they're really laying out here. We just had a couple days ago just talking about Trump homes. We've been talking about the 50 year mortgage that was floated not too long ago. But also just thinking about how he can really appeal to voters in this time period and the average consumer. Given the fact that we do know that the housing market is really fractured right now. It's actually seeing the highest, most expensive homes in more than decades. But I mean, we do look at the mortgage rate. The 30 year fixed mortgage rate in the US is now sitting around 6%. So not as high as it was before, but still very steep for those who are looking to purchase a new home.
- [26:38]
Bloomberg Host
Interesting. You know, it's really amazing when you look at this bounce back today just broadly here, Nora. We we've made up a lot of ground. In some cases, we've more than made up for the losses that were seen yesterday in stocks in the broad market. The RSPs of the world. The equal weight S&P 500 sitting at New all time highs today. It depends on what corner of the market you're looking at here, doesn't it?
- [27:03]
Joe Matthew
Definitely. I mean we are seeing a bit of a different story here. I mean what I've really got my eyes on has been to the tech space this entire week. I mean we are seeing a rebound in software stocks because that's where our attention has been much of this week because we were earlier seeing declines. I mean we also saw bitcoin, a brutal sell off that we saw yesterday. But we are also seeing that the coin is reclaiming almost all of its losses that we did see. This, of course this plunged was one of the worst that we've seen since Sam Bankman Fried's collapse of RTX just about three years ago. So it's interesting to see the coin recouping its losses but also just seeing a bit more broad, can we even call it optimism right now in the S&P 500 up about 1.7%. But you're certainly seeing a bit of a turn in the market as we head toward the close of the week.
- [27:50]
Bloomberg Host
Let's see if we can hang in there. Nora, thank you so much. Norma Linda, live from New York. We'll have much more on the markets as I mentioned, when Charlie Pellet gets back here into just about 15 minutes time. It's balance of power in Washington D.C. and I've been looking forward to this one. As the president gets ready to jump on Air Force One to watch the super bowl at the big party in Mar a Lago. A lot of people are headed for Las Vegas. I feel bad that producer James isn't out there right now because he's the one who turned me on to Stadium Swim and we wanted to spend some time do something a little bit special here with the man Forbes called the last casino mogul. To get a sense of what exactly were in store for on Sunday from the gaming perspective, from the tourism perspective and a man who knows more about both than most. Derek Stevens, the owner of Circa Golden Gate, the D and the other half of Fremont street is with us right now live from Las Vegas. Mr. Stevens, welcome back. It's great to see you. This is, well, I guess this is your super bowl, isn't it? I'm wondering how you qualify a success this weekend. What is a good result for circus sports on a Super Bowl Sunday?
- [28:57]
Derek Stevens
Well, Joe, great to be back and I think I'm, I'm very happy to be back on a day that the Dow's up a thousand s up, NASDAQ's up 400. I think I've been able to come on with you. And it's always been green. So that's a good start. That's, that's the first as far as, as far as the success here in Las Vegas. It really comes down to how the tourism goes and will, will the city fill up again? I think most people realize that the very best place to go in America is Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. If you're not actually going to the game, there's nothing better than Las Vegas. Great place to go. The home of super bowl betting. And we should have, we should, we should, I think, set some records here this year on legal wagering.
- [29:44]
Bloomberg Host
Yeah, well, okay, with regard to that, the American Gaming association put a number on it. They're estimating $1 billion,000,000 wagered on the super bowl this year through legal sportsbook operators in the US how much of that is going through sportsbooks like yours in Las Vegas?
- [30:01]
Derek Stevens
Yeah, I mean quite a bit. I mean we just took circus sports, just took its first million dollar bet. I'm hoping to have a few more of those here before kick off. I'm very much hopeful that we break a legal record. And that's, that's in light of the fact that. But from the illegal side or in the prediction market side, they may do more than just even the legal bookmakers do in 2026.
- [30:28]
Bloomberg Host
Wow. Look, I was blown away by this. So you're allowing bets of up to a million dollars, a million dollar limit on sides to spread the total at the counter in Las Vegas. How many guys do you think show up this weekend and plunked down a million dollars before the game?
- [30:44]
Derek Stevens
Well, I'm hoping quite a few. We've had, we hope to get a few more. So yeah, that, that's our limit. That's our limit. When you walk in at the counter, we'll, we'll move the number after that and we hope to get a little buyback. But, but overall, overall volume, sports betting volume has been, has been pretty strong here leading up to, leading up to the game. Now we're still more than 48 hours away and you're going to get 90% of the action is going to come in the next 48 hours.
- [31:14]
Bloomberg Host
Oh, wow. So, you know, I'm looking at the super bowl ads, which is, you know, part of the fun for everybody here. And I see Fnatic Sportsbook is running its first ever super bowl commercial featuring Kendall Jenner. Interestingly you've got Colin Jost and Michael che and the DraftKings spot that's going to be on Fanduels is going to have an add on prior to kickoff that I'm sure they're spending at least eight figures on. What's your place in the gaming universe when you're surrounded by this crush of sports gaming mobile apps? I haven't even mentioned Kalshi, the prediction markets yet. Where does a sportsbook like you exist?
- [31:51]
Derek Stevens
Well, I think we all have our own niche areas. I mean we're known for taking large bets. Circus sports is known for really celebrating some of the bigger players. Our average bet with circus sports in the six states that we're, that we're up in is far higher than others. But that, that has a lot to do with the way we book. We run a low hold model and we think that's, that's something that has a spot within the sports betting ecosystem.
- [32:21]
Bloomberg Host
Interesting. You of course got a lot of different properties though with different kinds of demographics and different clientele. I guess I'm wondering if, if you see these services would be in DraftKings, FanDuel, whatever as competition or if all wagering is good for business and should these prediction markets be allowed to do sports?
- [32:41]
Derek Stevens
Well, let me answer the first part of your question. You know I love the fact that Fanatics has has a Super bowl commercial. I'm a big supporter of DraftKings and in FanDuel on their legal side of their operation and I think that's good because I think that legal sports betting, it's good for leagues, it's good for players, it's good for players unions, it's good for states and it's good for problem gaming issues. So I, I'm a big supporter of any of the legal operators and what they can bring. It's also great for fans because there's greater engagement. So therefore it's great for media. I'm 100% supportive of the legal sports betting prediction markets. Now that's a whole nother story here. I mean these guys are doing an end around. They're very shrewd, no question about it. But they're not paying any state income tax, they're not paying anything into problem gambling, they're not paying a federal excise tax. You know, I realize there's a little bit of a surge of oh let's support prediction markets but I don't think that's necessarily the right, right long term path here. We think about it this way. If someone hijacked a Truck that had nothing but big screen televisions and brought that truck into the parking lot of a Best Buy and was able to sell, sell these TVs at half price. Would we really be supporting these marauders the way, the way it seems like it is? I don't think so. I think this is short lived and I think prediction markets have a great spot in America in our, in our, in our economy, in our ecosystem. But what they're doing with sports betting, it's a little bit crazy with the amount of taxes that we pay, in the amount of regulatory environment that we're in.
- [34:24]
Bloomberg Host
Marauders, says Derek Stevens. This is fascinating. Not to mention the taxes that the players are paying. We talked about the Fair Bet act last time you were here, Derek. This still has yet to see the light of day. I know Dina Titus has been working hard on this to essentially restore the 100% deduction for gambling losses against winnings. What are you hearing about this?
- [34:48]
Joe Matthew
This?
- [34:49]
Derek Stevens
Yeah, I know Dina's data, still working on it. The Fairbat act is something we still need to get, we need to get done. We tried to get it done before the end of the year. Dina tried to get it done here at the end of February. We are at the end of January. It's still a top priority. And here's the thing, it's not political. It's just not political. This is something that both sides of the aisle want to do. I'm still very confident that this is going to get rectified. Unfortunately it's not, hasn't been rectified rectified yet. So I'm hope, I'm hopeful that this gets, gets completed, you know, on the tax element. You know what's amazing to me, I want to go back to this prediction market thing for a second. The state of New York collected $1.1 billion of sports betting taxes. The state of Illinois $400 million of sports betting tax. On prediction markets, those go to zero. I'm a little surprised the states are getting more aggressive now. I realize we're still early on in this, but I do think though I do think the legal sports betting operators provide of benefit to, to the sports betting ecosystem. And I just think the amount of, amount of taxes being avoided by the prediction markets, it's, it's short lived.
- [35:58]
Bloomberg Host
Well, it's really interesting to hear you weigh in on this ahead of this weekend of all weekends. I've only got a minute left, Derek. And a lot of the chatter in the media has been tied to a tourism slowdown at the big resort casinos on the Strip. Are you seeing that on Fremont street or, or are people finding a good time to be more affordable at your properties?
- [36:18]
Derek Stevens
You know, I think, I think we've all talked a lot about this case shaped economy. You know, all tourism destinations in the country, New York, Miami, Las Vegas, Honolulu is down with from international tourism. But overall, overall Las Vegas is doing all right. I mean Las Vegas set an all time record gaming revenue set an all time record of 15.8 billion last year. So it's still, it's still pretty strong. The unfortunate thing is it's fortunate is it's, it's at the lower end where I think we're starting to feel it a little bit. But, but yet 2026, all the predictions look very, very solid for Las Vegas. Las Vegas tourism, fascinating.
- [36:57]
Bloomberg Host
Leave it to the president CEO of Circa. So weigh in on affordability on the stock market, of course, gambling and the K shaped economy. You got to come back for our next Fed special. Derek, it's great, great to see you. I wish you a lot of success this weekend and all the people who are playing out there. Derek Stevens, Circa Live from Las Vegas only here on Balance of Power on Bloomberg TV and radio. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime Eastern@Bloomberg bloomberg.com if you've been following the news, you know the world is dealing with a level of uncertainty that isn't going away anytime soon. Inflation pressures, global tensions, and the highest US Debt levels on record continue to influence markets day after day. And the result is familiar to anyone checking their retirement balances or savings accounts. Volatility has become the norm in times like these. People often look for ways to strengthen their financial foundation. Physical gold and silver help have served that purpose throughout history. They're real assets that exist outside the digital and financial systems that tend to fluctuate during economic stress. They're not a guarantee and they're not a shortcut to wealth, but they can offer diversification when things feel unpredictable. Preserve Gold is committed to helping Americans understand their options with simple educational information, including how precious metals can be held in an IRA. For your free wealth protection guide, text iheart to find 0505 and with a qualified purchase, you could receive up to $15,000 in free gold or silver. Don't wait, text ihearto50505 this is Sarah.
- [38:37]
Joe Matthew
Spain from good game with Sarah Spain, brought to you in part by Vital Farms. Let me tell you why Vital Farms Pasture raised eggs are the only eggs I have in my fridge.
- [38:44]
Bloomberg Host
The hens, they're living the good life.
- [38:47]
Joe Matthew
Fresh air, sunshine, and wide open pastures.
- [38:49]
Bloomberg Host
I use my Vital Farms for my.
- [38:50]
Joe Matthew
Famous frittatas, and you could trace your.
- [38:52]
Bloomberg Host
Eggs back to the farm they came from. Check the carton for the farm name, pop it into vitalfarms.com farm and boom.
- [38:58]
Joe Matthew
You'Re looking at the pasture. So next time you're in the store, look for the black carton in the egg aisle and visit vitalfarms.com to learn more.
- [39:04]
Bloomberg Host
Vital Farms Good eggs, no shortcuts.