Balance of Power: “Mamdani Holds Commanding Lead in New NYC Poll”
Bloomberg | Hosted by Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz
Date: September 10, 2025
Episode Overview
This episode explores the seismic shift in New York City’s mayoral race, where a new Siena Research Institute poll reveals Abdullah Mamdani with a commanding lead over major rivals. Host Joe Mathieu welcomes Don Levy ("America’s pollster" and director of the Siena Research Institute) to break down the numbers and implications. The discussion pivots to broader national issues—President Trump’s law enforcement initiatives in Washington, D.C., NATO tensions following Russian drone incursions in Poland, and rapidly evolving Middle East diplomacy after Israeli strikes in Doha.
Section 1: NYC Mayoral Race—New Poll Shakes Up the Field
Key Insights from the Siena Poll
[00:55–08:54]
- Four-way race standings:
- Mamdani: 46%
- Cuomo: 24%
- Curtis Sliwa: 15%
- Eric Adams: 9%
- The prospect of Sliwa and Adams dropping out (the “big if”) narrows the race significantly.
- In a Cuomo–Mamdani head-to-head, it's Mamdani 48%, Cuomo 44%.
- Levy emphasizes that Adams’ and Sliwa’s supporters favor Cuomo as a second choice.
Demographic and Issue Focus
- Mamdani’s base: Leads with young voters and in “vote-rich boroughs” (Manhattan, Brooklyn).
- Cuomo’s core strength: Voters who prioritize crime as the #1 issue, and broad name recognition as a former governor.
- Formerly strong with Black voters, Cuomo now polls only evenly with Mamdani in that demographic.
Notable Quotes
- “If in fact [Sliwa and Adams] did get out ... suddenly we’ve got a race that’s 48 for Mamdani and 44 for Governor Cuomo.”
— Don Levy [02:16] - “He’s seen as inspirational. He’s seen as someone who cares about people like you.... That’s where Mamdani does extremely well.”
— Don Levy [07:48]
Realistic Prospects and Endgame Scenarios
- Both Adams and Sliwa would need to drop out for Cuomo to seriously threaten Mamdani’s lead.
- No significant signs either candidate plans to exit; “time is quite short” to make a difference.
Money and Messaging
- Manhattan business leaders met in support of Cuomo, but Levy questions whether increased funding would erase Mamdani’s favorability/character advantage.
Progressive Platform: Public Support and Challenges
- Policy polling data:
- Rent freeze/rent stabilization: 70% support
- Free buses: 60%
- Increased taxes on wealthy: 68%
- Cuomo would need to shift left to compete.
Notable Quotes
- “Cuomo is going to run on effectiveness, realism. I can get things done, I can keep you safe and I can accomplish things that actually can be done rather than just promising things that can’t.”
— Don Levy [08:54]
Section 2: Trump’s Law-and-Order Campaign—Dining Out and Power Plays in D.C.
[10:36–22:35]
Recent Events & Political Theater
- President Trump dined at Joe’s Stone Crab in D.C. with cabinet and staff—a show of confidence in city safety following a 30-day period of “federalized” policing.
- Trump hints at next city for National Guard deployment, likely a Republican-led area open to the intervention.
Washington D.C. Perspectives
- Rick Davis (Bloomberg contributor, GOP strategist) and Ophira Yeheskel (Democratic Governors Association) react to both the symbolism and the reality.
- Debate on the success and consequences of the National Guard presence for public safety and local business.
Notable Quotes
- “It has been relatively slow to recover from COVID but...now it’s thriving and we want to continue to thrive.”
— Rick Davis [13:33] - "Actually the presence of the National Guard here has been a decrease on people feeling the ability to go out."
— Ophira Yeheskel [15:20]
The Federal/State Balance of Power
- Eyes turn to Louisiana (potential next “crackdown city”).
- Respect for “states’ rights” a bipartisan issue in this scenario.
- Noteworthy mention: previous court battles—Governor Newsom of California’s successful lawsuit against Trump over National Guard deployment.
Notable Exchanges
- “If Governor Pritzker saw the need to deploy the National Guard in Illinois, I think that’s one thing. But he was very clear ... he did not want that from the president. So I think, yeah, victory for him.”
— Ophira Yeheskel [19:16] - “Don't give Donald Trump too much room on crime because he’s going to take it and he's taking it right now.”
— Rick Davis [20:14]
Section 3: Global Hotspots—Poland, Russia, and NATO
[23:43–29:03]
Breaking News: Russian Drones Violate Polish Airspace
- NATO jets intercept a Russian drone swarm targeting Ukraine that crosses into Poland.
- Poland invokes Article 4 of the NATO treaty, requesting consultations due to security threat.
Analysis by Michael Allen (Beacon Global Strategies)
- Putin is “testing NATO’s resolve”—part of a pattern to intimidate and fracture Western unity.
- Trump’s approach to NATO is to demand more from European partners, not withdraw but shift the burden.
Notable Quotes
- “This is a very serious incursion by the Russians. I think it is designed to test NATO’s resolve.”
— Michael Allen [25:23] - “Trump feels like this is something he’s achieved already as part of his national security foreign policy.”
— Michael Allen [26:28]
Congress's Reaction
- Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) calls it “an act of war”; Allen urges caution, not escalation.
Section 4: Middle East Friction—Israel Strikes Doha Amid Hostage Talks
[29:03–33:12]
Events and Stakeholders
- Israel carries out airstrikes in Doha while delicate hostage negotiations are underway.
- US President expresses public frustration; had not authorized the strike.
- Implications for US-Israeli relations and risk of wider regional fallout (from Iran proxies, Hezbollah, Houthis).
Key Takeaways
- Allen suggests Israeli frustration with negotiations led to kinetic action—sending signals about negotiation seriousness.
- Communication between US, Israel, and Qatar under strain; surprise element raises diplomatic concerns.
Notable Quotes
- “This just feels like it’s something that’s testing the president’s patience at a moment when Israel ought to be looking at how are we going to settle this down.”
— Michael Allen [30:39] - “As the Israelis are fond of saying, they have seven fronts ongoing...and they have to keep their enemies on their back foot.”
— Michael Allen [33:12]
Conclusion & Episode Highlights
- NYC Mayoral Race: Mamdani holds a strong—though not insurmountable—lead, with much depending on the unlikely withdrawal of other candidates. Cuomo’s path is narrow, reliant on uniting anti-Mamdani votes and shifting left.
- Federal/State Law Enforcement: Trump’s “law and order” efforts are as much about politics as policing; the intergovernmental tug-of-war continues, with governors flexing states’ rights power.
- Foreign Affairs: New Russian provocations and shifting NATO posture heighten uncertainty in Europe. In the Middle East, American influence is being tested as Israel and Hamas hostage talks are disrupted by new military actions.
Selected Memorable Quotes
- “Cuomo is going to run on effectiveness, realism. I can get things done...There’s a bit of an opening for him there.” — Don Levy [08:54]
- “If the president’s going to New Orleans, he’s got to go to Friday lunch at Galatoire’s. This has really become a very hungry program.” — Joe Mathieu [18:44]
- “Calling it an act of war, I think, goes way too far.” — Michael Allen [27:37]
Timestamps for Key Segments:
- NYC mayors race poll breakdown: [00:55–08:54]
- Trump and DC federal policing: [10:36–22:35]
- Russian drones in Poland—NATO reaction: [23:43–29:03]
- Middle East tensions/Doha strike: [29:03–33:12]
The episode balances granular polling insights, political strategy, and fast-moving world crises with clear-eyed, nonpartisan analysis.