NATO Allies at Odds Over How to Respond to Russia’s Threats

Summary

Balance of Power: NATO Allies at Odds Over How to Respond to Russia’s Threats

Bloomberg | Host: Joe Mathieu | Co-Host: Kailey Leinz (not present)
Episode date: September 24, 2025

---

Episode Overview

In this episode, host Joe Mathieu and a range of expert guests break down the latest developments affecting NATO unity, U.S. policy toward the Russia-Ukraine war, escalating tensions, and domestic politics surrounding a possible U.S. government shutdown. The podcast zeroes in on President Trump’s recent dramatic public pivots on Ukraine, the political maneuvering within NATO, and how global events intersect with bruising partisan disputes in Washington.

---

Key Topics & Insights

1. President Trump's Shifting Ukraine Policy and Its Fallout

Trump's Surprising Public Shift

• President Trump’s recent social media post signals the U.S. now believes Ukraine, with EU support, can reclaim all its territory and perhaps more—apparently a reversal from previous months where he pressured President Zelensky for concessions. [00:55]
• The abrupt change following a UNGA meeting and talks with Zelensky has left both allies and adversaries guessing about the real U.S. policy.

Quote:

"It is unclear exactly what he meant by certain elements of this post, but clearly a different tune, a different emotion from the president..."
—Joe Matthew [01:34]

Zelensky's Reaction

• President Zelensky was visibly surprised by Trump’s statement, signaling Ukrainian readiness for a swift end to the war, but expressing skepticism about Putin’s intentions.

Quote:

"It was a surprise for me... that Trump and America will be with us [until] the end of the war."
—President Zelensky [03:08]

---

2. Analysis: Is the U.S. Stepping Back or Just Shifting Approach?

What’s Behind Trump's Change of Tune?

• Nick Wadhams (Bloomberg National Security Editor) suggests the policy may reflect frustration with Putin but also hints at a quiet U.S. disengagement: supplying arms to NATO states but possibly leaving further action to Europe.

Quote:

"In some ways, when you look at this...maybe it's a change of heart, but at the same time, it also looks a little bit like a stepping back."
—Nick Wadhams [04:13]

• Trump’s ambiguous “good luck to all” line struck many as a “mic drop” moment, leaving officials unsure of concrete policy direction.

Quote:

"He's got a lot of mics to drop, I guess...it's always a dangerous game to try to parse the President's words and social media posts..."
—Nick Wadhams [05:20]

Ukraine, Concessions, and Policy Confusion

• The shift from advocating land concessions to full support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity raises questions about Trump’s consistency and the sources informing his judgment.

Quote:

"Does the president even remember that he said earlier that concessions might be necessary?...it's just so confusing."
—Nick Wadhams [06:32]

---

3. Russia Testing NATO: Incursions and Strategic Pressure

Russian Provocations

• Russian drone and jet incursions into Polish and Estonian airspace are interpreted as efforts to test NATO resolve and potentially divide the alliance. There’s concern Hungary and Turkey may not back escalatory responses.

Quote:

"Vladimir Putin is testing the boundaries of the NATO alliance and also testing its will to push back..."
—Nick Wadhams [07:52]

• The situation is complicated by conflicting signals from U.S. leaders: Trump urges shooting down Russian jets that breach airspace; Secretary of State Rubio advocates restraint unless directly attacked.

---

4. U.S. and NATO Response: Escalation Risks and Unity

Expert Perspective: Anya Manuel, Aspen Strategy Group Exec. Director

• Manuel interprets Trump’s new stance as a long overdue turn against Russia, welcoming the rhetorical shift but calling for real action—faster and more substantial arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Quote:

"I think Vladimir Putin has finally worn out the patience of this president, which is a good thing and a long time coming."
—Anya Manuel [10:32]

Economic and Military Pressure on Russia

• Manuel flags Russia’s war-driven economy and the need for tighter oil sanctions as realistic avenues for increased pressure. She also supports robust NATO defense of airspace but cautions against automatic escalation unless NATO Article 5 (attack on one = attack on all) is triggered.

Quote:

"So far, what you've seen from the Russians is incursions via drones, not so much man[ned] jets. So...standing together...is the strong symbolism that Vladimir Putin needs to see."
—Anya Manuel [13:27]

Weakness of International Institutions

• Zelensky’s speech at the UN was highlighted, lamenting the inability of institutions to prevent conflicts, echoed by Manuel who notes their effectiveness depends on member states’ willpower.

---

5. U.S. Domestic Politics: Looming Government Shutdown

The Shutdown Standoff

• Democrats accuse Trump of avoiding negotiations over a looming shutdown; Republicans argue it’s political theater serving both sides’ interests.
• Terry Haines (Pangea Policy): Both parties may welcome a brief “performative” shutdown, each aiming to satisfy their respective political bases before an inevitable agreement.

Quote:

"It's both parties interest to have a performative shutdown...(they’ll) nod at who and say they won something."
—Terry Haines [20:51]

Economic Impact and Election Dynamics

• Short shutdowns are mostly inefficient and costly, but beyond the direct impact, both parties are positioning themselves to pin blame on the other. Haines doubts any of this will matter much by the midterms.

Quote:

"Voters tend to look at this stuff in primary colors...Is the government spending more, the government spending less? Are my priorities being dealt with?"
—Terry Haines [25:00]

• There’s speculation the White House might welcome a shutdown to test executive control over spending (“impoundment”) and assert its agenda.

---

6. Other Major Headlines: Epstein Files and House Control

Special Election in Arizona & Epstein Petition

• Adelita Grijalva won a special election, altering House balances; her pledged support for the Epstein files discharge petition brings the required votes, almost ensuring its appearance on the House floor.
• The move generates bipartisan discomfort, seen as a political tool rather than substantive change, unlikely to advance in the Senate.

Quote:

"So this thing is going to barrel ahead to the floor. I don't think it's going to go far in the Senate, but they're going to force Republicans to take a stand on releasing these documents."
—Jeannie Shanzano [32:30]

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

| Timestamp | Quote | Speaker | |-----------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------| | 01:34 | "Clearly a different tune, a different emotion from the president..." | Joe Matthew | | 03:08 | "It was a surprise for me... that Trump and America will be with us [until] the end of the war." | Zelensky | | 04:13 | "Maybe it's a change of heart, but at the same time...looks a little bit like a stepping back." | Nick Wadhams | | 05:20 | "[Trump’s posts] do not go through any vetting process and maybe just reflect where his head is at that moment."| Nick Wadhams | | 06:32 | "Does the president even remember that he said earlier that concessions might be necessary?...it's so confusing."| Nick Wadhams | | 07:52 | "Vladimir Putin is testing the boundaries of the NATO alliance..." | Nick Wadhams | | 10:32 | "Putin has finally worn out the patience of this president, which is a good thing and a long time coming." | Anya Manuel | | 13:27 | "So far, what you've seen from the Russians is incursions via drones, not so much manned jets..." | Anya Manuel | | 20:51 | "It's both parties interest to have a performative shutdown...they’ll nod at who and say they won something." | Terry Haines | | 25:00 | "Voters tend to look at this stuff in primary colors..." | Terry Haines | | 32:30 | "So this thing is going to barrel ahead to the floor...they are going to force Republicans to take a stand..." | Jeannie Shanzano |

---

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:55–04:56 – Trump’s Ukraine Shift, UN Meeting, Zelensky’s Reaction
• 04:56–09:39 – U.S. “Stepping Back”?, NATO Division, Russian Incursions
• 10:27–16:20 – Anya Manuel: U.S./NATO Strategy, Putin, Zelensky at the UN
• 17:55–29:44 – Government Shutdown Politics: Terry Haines, House Dynamics, Impact Analysis
• 30:28–41:24 – House Control, Epstein Files, Shutdown Implications, Democratic Messaging

---

Conclusion

This episode weaves together international crisis management and raw domestic politics, offering a revealing glimpse of how U.S. leadership turbulence, Russian brinkmanship, and NATO fault lines intersect. The uncertainty of Trump-era foreign policy, the perennial performative DC shutdown, and the symbolic skirmish over the Epstein files all converge to paint a picture of governmental volatility—and hint at the limits of even the most powerful allies and institutions.

Listeners walk away with a clearer sense not only of where policy stands, but—more importantly—with an appreciation for the profound uncertainty informing every current headline.

Transcript

[Maura Gillespie]

These days, AI can help you adopt.

[Anya Manuel]

Better time management, but it can't stop colleagues booking meetings during lunch. But how about being able to easily adopt industrial AI to streamline your business? Siemens Xcelerator helps you find the right AI providers and easily understand what they offer so you can use modular solutions to quickly scale up and grow your business. That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI, Siemens. Learn more on USA.siemens.com AI.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

Thank you for being with us on the Wednesday Ed edition here on Bloomberg TV and radio. You can also find us on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Business News Live as Washington reels and many world capitals reel from the most recent post from President Trump regarding the war in Ukraine. He's back in Washington now, of course. Was that UNGA yesterday, the United Nations General Assembly. We brought you his address live here on Bloomberg. That was followed by a series of bilateral meetings, including one with full Autumn Zelensky talking, of course about the war in Ukraine. Just weeks after President Trump hosted Vladimir Putin at a summit in Alaska with hopes of finding some path to peace. That of course has not emerged. Vladimir Putin has continued to attack civilian neighborhoods and increase the level of bombardment and drone attacks across the entire country of Ukraine. Following that meeting with Zelenskyy, President Trump posted again. It was before he headed home last evening to write. I think Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is in a position to fight and win all of Ukraine back in its original form. Going on to say the original borders from where this war started. Very much an option. He called Russia a paper tiger, said later, Ukraine will be able to take back their country in its original form and who knows, maybe even go further than than that. It is unclear exactly what he meant by certain elements of this post, but clearly a different tune, a different emotion from the president, who also just a few months ago excoriated President Zelensky in the Oval Office, saying he didn't have the cards, no leverage. We've heard lines like it takes two to tango. Zelensky was asked about all of this in an interview on Fox News, clearly surprised himself by what President Trump said. Let's listen so we understand now that we are ready to finish this war as quick as possible and he wants and I want and our People want, but he understand that Putin doesn't want and understand that he is not winning. But he says to everybody that he will win. And I see very. It was a surprise for me.

[Terry Haines]

You're right.

[Joe Matthew]

I was very positive. Signals from the side that. That Trump and America will be with us the end of the war. Clearly surprised, as I'm guessing Nick Wadhams was as well. Bloomberg's national security team leader is in New York to cover the United nations meetings and with us now on Bloomberg. Nick, it's great to have you from New York. You know, the line out there, it all has to do with whomever President Trump talked to last. Is it as simple as that in this case? Or did he have other conversations around the UN Maybe other phone calls recently that changed his mind? Or maybe Vladimir Putin has simply worn out his welcome?

[Nick Wadhams]

Well, I think it's probably a mixture of all of those. Certainly he has been a lot more impatient with Putin. He came in thinking, you know, Putin wanted to do a deal and he thought he could have this thing wrapped up pretty quickly. Obviously, it has not turned out that way. I think the subtext, though, of that tweet in particular or that social media post is maybe a little more unsettling than folks may think. I mean, if you read to the end, he says, I wish both countries well will continue to supply weapons. Good luck to all. I mean, you know, so there is a theory of the case out there that essentially what he's doing is stepping away from this whole thing. So the US Is gonna. Is gonna send weapons to European countries to sell. Sell weapons to European countries, and they could then send them on to Ukraine, but he's not otherwise getting involved. And, you know, so in some ways, when you look at this, you think, okay, maybe it's a change of heart, but at the same time, it also looks a little bit like a stepping back, which is defin what European countries in Ukraine would want.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, well, you're changing the way I think we're all looking at this as we speak, Nick. In any event, he writes, yeah, I wish both countries well. We'll continue to supply weapons to Naito, for Naito to do what they want with them.

[Nick Wadhams]

Right.

[Joe Matthew]

Good luck to all. And he signs it, Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America. Was that his mic drop then?

[Nick Wadhams]

Well, I mean, that's a great question because, you know, it feels like we've had so many mic drops from the President. He's got a lot of mics to drop, I guess. I mean, the interesting thing Here. And it's always a dangerous game to try to parse the President's words and social media posts, because one suspects that these do not go through any sort of vetting process and maybe just reflect where his head is at that moment. But, you know, for a long time we were hearing essentially this administration, from the president on down, all say that Ukraine was going to have to make concessions on land. And it was coming out of that meeting with Vladimir Putin. The expectation at the time was that we were going to be on a path to some sort of concrete plan that would involve land swaps. You know, Russia took land after the invasion and it was likely that they were never going to give it up. Now President Trump is essentially saying, yes, we think Ukraine can get back all of its land. So whether or not the US Is involved, clearly he heard something that makes him think Ukraine can be successful there. That's what we're really trying to figure out said in that meeting with Zelenskyy or what piece of information did the President get to think that it's possible Ukraine could retake all its land? Of course, the big question for us is, does, does the president even remember that he said earlier that concessions might be necessary and does he sort of acknowledge that that seemed to be a policy that he was holding, or is he now just sort of shifting on to something else? It's just so confusing. It's really hard to, to make sense of what the President actually believes.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, well, I mean, that's why we're talking this out, because we're not going to figure that out definitively in this conversation. There's a whole other theory out there right now, Nick, that Vladimir Putin is steps ahead and is in fact trying to divide NATO by flying these incursions, fighter jets or drones into NATO countries like Poland and Estonia, causing them to scramble jets. And the President yesterday said Naito should shoot down Russian jets that breach their airspace, which, by the way, would be a very new and escalatory policy here. The idea, though, that, for instance, Hungary may not agree with this or some other NATO members. What will Turkey think of this? And Putin is well aware that he could add a whole new stress point to the NATO alliance with the help of Donald Trump saying things like this. Does that hit home for you?

[Nick Wadhams]

Well, I think, you know, it's not, wouldn't necessarily be four dimensional chess to suggest that, you know, Vladimir Putin is testing the boundaries of the NATO alliance and also testing its will to push back. So, yes, there is the idea that, you know, Putin is Sort of a master strategic thinker. But in a lot of ways this feels pretty obvious. We've known for a long time that he's wanted to drive a wedge between the US and other members of NATO and within Europe, members of, of the European Community, like Hungary, for example, that are a little more in his camp versus others. And this would be a good way to do it. I mean, Russian aircraft testing the boundaries both at NATO and in the US I'm thinking up, you know, where the US And Russia border each other. Alaska and the Russian Far East. You've seen many times in the last many years where US Fighter jets have been deployed to keep an eye on Russian aircraft that drift a little close to the U.S. border. So I think, I think it's safe to assume that any time you see this happen, it is not a mistake, especially when man Russian aircraft are involved. Should be said that Russia denies that that's what happens here. They say they were, they were flying on a well established corridor. But yes, I think there is that desire to cause that, to create that wedge between the US And Europe. And then, you know, it also does just create confusion because you have Trump saying that, but you know, he said that about shooting down jets hours after Marco Rubio, his Secretary of State, said, listen, no, we should not be shooting down these jets unless Russia actually attacks. So again, you're seeing a lot of the confusion about what exactly US Policy is right now.

[Joe Matthew]

Always a fascinating conversation, if not a definitive one, with Nick Wadhams. Good luck with your coverage at the UN Nick, and thank you as always for being with us. Just want to mention very quickly, a red headline just crossed the terminal. It's not having to do with this, but in fact, Oracle launching an $18 billion investment grade bond sale. Oracle shares, which have been on a tear lately, are down about 3 1/2% now, still holding above $300. As we consider the options moving forward here and whether in fact President Trump is leaning into Ukraine or dropping the mic, I think the options we just established with Nick Wadhams, we wanted to spend some time with Anya Manuel, Aspen Strategy Group Executive Director, former US Diplomat I remember having a really fascinating conversation last time you were on Anya and things have changed a bit with regard to the President's tune here and I'm wondering if you take him at his word.

[Anya Manuel]

Good to be with you, Joe. Yes, I think this is a big turn in policy and it's very welcome. And I think Vladimir Putin has finally worn out the patience of this president, which is a good thing and a long time coming. So I hope that now the US Backs this welcome statement by President Trump with action. Look at what the Biden administration did. They gave over 66 billion in military and other assistance to Ukraine. President Trump and his administration have not said no to that. Now, NATO will pay for those arms. They're just starting to flow. I think 1 billion has been released. But that's obviously too little, too late. We need to do more faster to actually give the Ukrainians what they need to win back. Maybe not all the territory, but even some of the territory to put themselves in a better negotiating position. Because as we've learned with Vladimir Putin, you don't get anywhere unless you get there from strength.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's right. And so I'm curious what type of strength the President is referring to here. Donald Trump writes, Putin and Russia are in big economic trouble and this is the time for Ukraine to act. Is he talking about a military offensive or some sort of economic maneuver that we're not talking about?

[Anya Manuel]

Yeah, I can't speculate on what the President meant, but Russia is in big economic trouble. They have put their entire economy on a war footing. So that's artificially propping up GDP growth. I do think, even though it was a little ham handed to just punish India, the idea of really trying to do our best to crack down on some of these Russian oil exports, to put on maybe some limited secondary sanctions, it's hard to get those to work perfectly. But the idea of putting more pressure on Putin is very welcome. And I also would say I really welcome the President's remarks about NATO airspace sovereignty. As you know, Putin sent a bunch of drones over into Poland. That was not an error. As you and Nick discussed, I think the polls reacted right in exactly the right way. Denmark, it's a little less clear. And this is. Putin does this perfectly. He always tests and tests and tests until somebody pushes back hard. So I'm glad we're pushing back.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, how far should we push back? President says you ought to shoot him down. You get MiG 30 ones in your airspace, you shoot them down. That's also a pretty good way to start a war. Correct? The Russians are pretty good about implying different motives when they're caught in the act. Our fighter pilots for decades have been intercepting Russian Bear bombers and fighter jets in airspace over Alaska, for instance. Should we be shooting down Russian jets if they incur An Article 4, as opposed to 5 offensive here?

[Anya Manuel]

Look, I think you leave this to the NATO planners and strategists. Obviously, we stick to NATO Article 5, which means an attack on one is an attack on all. So far, what you've seen from the Russians is incursions via drones, not so much man jets. So I think the idea that NATO is standing together, I thought the Europeans did really well this summer when you had Mark Ruta from NATO and a bunch of European leaders show up at the Oval Office to say, basically, we stand with you, America, we stand with you, Ukraine. And that's kind of the strong symbolism that Vladimir Putin needs to see.

[Joe Matthew]

We heard from Vladimir Zelinsky today at the UN it was his chance to speak from the same speaker's rostrum that we saw Donald Trump in yesterday. He spoke to the veracity of institutions, and there's been a big conversation about that this week. Certainly the president, President Trump tried to engage in one yesterday as he chastised the UN for doing little more than writing strongly worded letters. I want you to hear what President Zelensky had to say earlier today, and we'll have you respond. Let's listen. Even during bloodshed, there isn't a signal international institution that can truly stop it. That's how weak these institutions have become. What can Sudan or Somalia or Palestine or any other people living through war really expect from the UN or the global system? If you're having a hard time hearing that on the radio, he was referring to Sudan, Somalia or Palestine. Any other people, he said, living through war, what they should really expect from the UN and the global system. Do we expect too much from this institution holding its General assembly this week?

[Anya Manuel]

Yeah. I think international institutions are only as powerful and effective as its members allow them to be. And the United nations is a collection of member states. And so if the most senior leaders of that on this national, on the Security Council disagree, obviously the UN is hampered in its effectiveness. But I would say, look, the US Attacking the UN as being ineffective is not new. We also still foot a large part of the bill. And to echo what President zelensky said, The UN does an enormous amount of good. They deploy 70,000 peacekeepers around the world. The World Food Program feeds 150 million people a year. The World Health Organization coordinates responses to big public health outbreaks. So there are a lot of things that the UN Is doing, even if it may not be possible for that institution to solve the biggest wars unless its members permit it to do that.

[Joe Matthew]

Really something. I'm not sure where we're going here, Anya, but we'd love to stay in touch with you on this because this does feel like a bit of an inflection point. And I'm glad you could spend some time with us today on Bloomberg from the Aspen Strategy Group, the executive director, former U.S. diplomat Anya Manuel with us here on Bloomberg TV and radio. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Glad you're along today on the Wednesday edition. We're going to assemble our panel next with much more to talk about here in Washington. It's not just geopolitics but domestic politics we pay attention to with truly one week to the day before a possible government shutdown. If they can't figure out a deal. It will be in fact next Wednesday that you and I are here talking about what agencies are going to stay open and which might have to wait. Who will be essential and who will not stay with us. On Balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

How can you grow your business from idea to industry leader? Bring your vision to life with smart business buying tools and technology from Amazon Business. From fast free shipping to in depth buying insights and automated purchase approvals, they deliver everything you need to achieve your goals. It's not easy to stand out from the crowd, simplify how you stock up to get ahead. Go to amazonbusiness.com for support. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

Covering politics all at once here in Washington. Thanks for joining us on Balance of Power on Bloomberg radio and on YouTube search Bloomberg Business News Live because you're going to want to see and listen to Terry Haines when he joins us in a moment. Yes. With me in Washington is Mario Parker. And Mario, the Democratic leader in the House is calling out another taco, Hakeem Jeffries on X. Trump always chickens out. He says Donald Trump just canceled a high stakes meeting in the Oval Office with myself and Leader Schumer. Remembering, of course, as we told you yesterday, they were supposed to meet on Thursday. This was supposedly on the books.

[Mario Parker]

Yes, absolutely. You're seeing the frustration here from Schumer and Jeffries now as well, invoking the taco jive that Trump hates.

[Joe Matthew]

I'm not sure that applies in this case, does it?

[Mario Parker]

Not sure it applies in this case. But they want a meeting, right? And then they know on the other side that Mike Johnson and John Thone are both working the president to not have a meeting with them as to not undercut some of the leverage that they think that they have against Democrats right now.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, well, he took it to Morning Joe, an open collared Minority Leader Schumer. Here's what he said on msnbc.

[Nick Wadhams]

We know how bad it is and we're asking something very simple, Joe, for the President to sit down and talk with us. You know, he's not the king. He can't just dictate what happened. He said he doesn't need Democrats. Well then he doesn't know how to count because there are 60 votes in this Senate that you need to pass this and he's got 53.

[Joe Matthew]

Little background remembering that Republicans in the House did pass the clean cross. It went to the Senate, it failed. There was another Democratic version that failed too. Now senators are going to be back with two days to go. The trouble here is the House will not be back until after the government would be shut down. And by the way, that's a week from today. We could be talking to Terry Haines one week from today as Russ Vote starts to decide what is essential and what is not. And he's with us right now, the founder of Pangea Policy. It takes an act of Congress to get him on this broadcast because he's on every other broadcast on Bloomberg. But we got our hooks in Terry today. It's great to have you back, Terry Haines, and good to see you. Are you in the camp that this is unavoidable at this point? You've seen this movie a lot of times before. Could somebody pull something out of the fire?

[Terry Haines]

Joe, it's always a pleasure and really particularly and Mario, good afternoon. The somebody might be able to pull something out of the fire. But let me say, let me say two things about where, where this is going. One is that it's both parties interest to have a performative shutdown. I think probably short. You know, Schumer got a lot of grief the last time out for, for not not taking Trump on more. And the base is demanding some sort of demonstration against bad Orange man. So I think they probably get one, you know, on Trump's side. Not only is is it kind of Republicans want what they want, number one, but number two for markets, it's in Trump's and Republicans interest to remind everybody just whose fault the debt and deficit are. You know, pin that particular tail on the Democratic donkey. And so, you know, they'll try to do that. But you know, the Schumer's rhetoric I think masks just how modest their ask is. The ask is pretty modest and it has to do with, you know, the premium levels under Obamacare and then putting them in this particular bill. Republicans have indicated they might be willing to compromise on that issue, but they don't want it in a temporary spending bill. So now all we're talking about really is, you know, who's going to nod at who and say they won something. And you know, Democrats are kind of, kind of desperate to say they want anything. You know, they pitched the, pitched the whole Kimmel reinstatement as a, as a win for them, even though they really didn't have anything to deal with it. So, you know, any kind of nod they're going to say to people, well, you know what? We, you know, we looked bad orange man in the eye and you know, got him to do something on this. In reality, they're going to fight about Republicans and Democrats are going to fight about spending for months to come. And it is not at all uncommon to have spending bills go on and on until, you know, January, February, even March. The final thing I will say before I stop this filibuster is that the concerns about debt and deficit in the markets are real. They'll get stoked a little bit. But markets have now discovered tariffs are their friend and tariff revenues specifically are their friend. So, you know, even that gets mitigated a little bit. So I think we're in for a shutdown, but not a long.

[Mario Parker]

Thanks so much for joining us, Harry. Really appreciate it. Just to piggyback off of what you said, I mean, just, I mean, how much economic pain would there be if there's say a four or five day shutdown? Maybe if it extends even to this game of chicken, extends for a couple of weeks. I mean, is there a risk there for Republicans and the president that voters will be pretty angry about this at all? From an economic aspect, I think, Mario.

[Terry Haines]

I think from the economic aspect, two things. One is on the actual economics, what ends up happening is the it's well known that shutdowns are economically inefficient, you know, just meaning it, you know, it costs the government more to shut down in some cases than it does to keep it open. So there's that. Beyond that, though, I think this looks largely to markets and I think to the broader public, you know, like, you know, the usual kabuki theater that goes on around spending this time of year. Both parties are playing to their, their purest basis. So both sides will end up thinking and getting, you know, those peers bases will get fed the information that, you know, they, they got particular wins one way or the other and life will go on in this case. It'll, it'll totter on for I think probably weeks and months to come. What I would look at is the, is the kind of the year end traditional defense authorization and defense spending bills as kind of a trigger for a broader deal. But I don't think it a final deal happens elections much before then.

[Joe Matthew]

Interesting. Well, we could have a couple of different outcomes here. It seems. Republicans. The line that we've been getting on this program, Terry, and you're very kind to watch and listen sometimes is that, hey, number one, this is a Biden budget. We're only asking you to continue what was passed under the previous president and also a policy matter to be debated in December should have nothing to do with a funding emergency that we're dealing with in September. Do you have an ear on Republicans messaging here? Does that matter to voters?

[Terry Haines]

You know, you're absolutely right about what they've said on the, on the program and those are the talking points. And does that matter to voters? I think not a lot. Voters tend to look at this this kind of stuff in primary colors more than anything else. And it is, you know, is the government spending more, the government spending less? You know, are my priorities being dealt with and what ends up happening in shutdown or no every single year is that what you end up with is a status quo on government spending. It adjusts upwards by inflation or even less than inflation, you know, one one and a half percent, something like that. And you've got, you know, this year you'll have more than the usual upticks in defense spending, but you're also going to have a situation where domestic spending is, you know, remains largely intact and largely, you know, the same number. So, you know, both sides will fight to a draw as they always do.

[Joe Matthew]

You know, it's interesting Mario, we've talked so much about Russ Vote and whether this is in his playbook. There is at least a theory that the White House is hoping for this shutdown.

[Mario Parker]

That was exactly the point I was looking to speak with Terry about in that point, Joe, just the fact that what makes this shutdown a bit different than the ones we've seen before is this fight for empowerment that we've seen taking place with Congress Doge earlier this year. And we know that the calculation that Schumer made earlier this year, part of the reason that he didn't fight through was because he was worried about federal workers. He was worried about the president's ability to kind of impound funds. If you will pick and choose what's.

[Joe Matthew]

Essential for the government when the threat could actually be greater. Now, do you, do you buy into this theory, Terry?

[Terry Haines]

Theory? In what sense? In the theory that votes. Interested in, in testing impoundment that votes.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, yes, but also has a playbook here. And if the government shuts down, the Trump administration is now in control of what is essential and what is not and will use that power in a way that we've not seen before.

[Terry Haines]

Yeah, I think, yeah, I think both of those are true, frankly. They, you know, they, they have things that they want to roll out and things that they want to test. And, you know, all I'll say is, you know, I think the administration is absolutely wrong on the whole impoundment matter. The idea that the president can, you know, essentially line item things out. I use that not in a legal, strict legal sense, but kind of a general sense. The reason why is because the president's power under the Constitution is not just to negotiate with Congress about spending bills, but to actually veto the spending bills if he doesn't want them. I mean, that's the President, President's power. President can say to Congress, look, you know, I, you know, I'm against the bill and presidents do this all the time. I'm against the spending bill that you're putting in front of me because you're spending bills in front of me for these five or ten reasons. And I'm going to veto it and send it back and we're all going to negotiate and, you know, have a, have a resolution or not. And, you know, to come at this, to have the president sign something, I know this is not strictly the situation you asked me about, but to have the president sign spending bills of any kind and then pick and choose what it is that he's allowed to enforce or not is, I think, an untenable situation for them constitutionally.

[Mario Parker]

And Terry, just looking ahead to next November, it's a little bit over a year out, of course, but does this, I mean, does this factor into the midterms at all?

[Terry Haines]

No. And, you know, as far as the, as far as the midterms go today, I think we don't know a damn thing. Firstly, secondly, on, you know, in majorities, I always tell people, majorities don't equal control. Those words the word control get, tends to get slopped around a lot. But if you got a tiny majority in the House or the Senate, their majority is all right, as you can see today. But they're not control, as Leader Schumer points out. You know, Republicans can't just do anything they want in the Senate with 53 seats. So you know, you got a situation here where even their tiny majorities flip over as they might, that doesn't equal control. Secondly, and lastly, the, you know, this idea that Democrats have it all over Republicans these days is not true on the major issue, whether you look at the economy, immigration or crime.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, Terry, it's great to have you back. We'll go back to Congress to see if Terry will return from Pangea policy. Terry Haines only here on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

How can you free your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purchasing but but better support their teams. Smart business buying tools enable buyers to find and purchase items fast so they can focus on strategy and growth. It's time to free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology insights and Support [e-mail] youm're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.

[Joe Matthew]

We keep our eyes not only on the House of Representatives, but the state of Arizona. This is something that may not have been on your radar, but it's going to bring the whole Jeffrey Epstein story back to the fore here. And yes, everyone in Washington does know this, even if they're not talking about it. Adelita Grijalva, the daughter of the longtime Arizona congressman who died of cancer earlier this year. In March, Raul Grijalva won the race to succeed her dad last night. This was a special election, one of two that we were following, right? The other was in Virginia a couple of weeks ago. That was a slam dunk for the Democrat Gerry Connolly's old seat. This apparently was a slam dunk for the Democrat as well, the daughter of the now late incumbent. When she is sworn in. You thought Republicans had a narrow margin. The Republican majority in the House will go to 2:19,214 two remaining vacancies. Now that's one problem for Mike Johnson. Here's the other. The future congresswoman from Arizona has pledged to sign the discharge petition to release the Epstein files. And guess what? Only one more vote is needed. So this is apparently about to happen. Remembering you need 218 on there. Grijalva made it very clear that she will join the effort as soon as she is sworn in, which is expected to happen well next week when everybody comes back to town. It's where we start with our political panel. Jeannie Shanzano, Bloomberg Politics contributor and Democratic analyst, is with us. She is Democratic Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center, Republican strategist Maura Gillespie with Bluestack Strategies and a veteran of John Boehner's speaker's office. Great to have you both here. Jeannie, Democrats, as it turns out, we had been asking about this weeks ago. Will in fact be the party to put the discharge petition on the floor? Will it go any further?

[Jeannie Shanzano]

It may not go to the Senate, but it's certainly coming to the floor of the House. And it's not just Democrats. We have Tom Massie, we have the three women who are Republicans who have signed on and said despite pressure from the White House, their signatures will remain. And then, of course, you have Virginia Fox, the chair of the Rules Committee, who says she's not going to try to stop it. So this thing is going to barrel ahead to the floor. I don't think it's going to go far in the Senate, but they are going to force Republicans to take a stand on releasing these documents. So, Joe, you thought Epstein was something of the past. He keeps rearing up again.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, it's like that hand that comes out of the water at the end of the horror movie. Maura, what's the conversation happening right now inside the speaker's office as Mike Johnson loses control of this matter?

[Maura Gillespie]

It's a matter of how do we deal with President Trump and his reaction to this, really? Because it's happening, as you mentioned, this is going to force Republicans to be on record. They can tout to their constituents that they stand for transparency and they want answers. They want to do it through proper orders. And that's the messaging that they'll probably come up with. But I think that what we're going to see is a real pressure campaign by the White House. And then it'll be up to Speaker Johnson how he communicates this with the president, reminding him that this has put his members in a position where they have to be on record for it. But I agree that it won't go to the Senate. It'll just be a messaging tool.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, okay, A messaging tool is really what it has been so far, Jeannie, which is a problem for President Trump. Does it also threaten to sideline any potential deal around government funding? Because we are a week away now. This is the this would be the first day of a shutdown next week if it happens.

[Jeannie Shanzano]

Yeah, I don't see the Epstein issue as having that much of an impact on the shutdown. I think we are unfortunately barreling towards a shutdown regardless of what happens. I don't even think that Donald Trump canceling tomorrow's meeting with the Democratic leadership is having that much impact. You know, unfortunately, I think Democrats have their back against the wall. I don't think they should do what they are doing, as you know, Joe, but they're doing it. And I think they don't have a choice because if they decided to capitulate, their base would just rebel. And so I think we are going to barrel towards a shutdown. And I think that is most unfortunate because getting out of it is going to be terribly difficult.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, you know, Jeannie, you referred to Mike Johnson's preference. They wanted the Epstein matter to come through the Oversight Committee and not have to deal with what they call a partisan discharge petition. You remember, Mike Lawlor wanted to have a big shouting match about this when I was asking about his potential vote on the discharge and he was yelling so much. We, we really didn't get a lot done in that, that conversation. But it really underscored how sensitive this is for those who are allied with Mike Johnson to not see it go this way, not with Tom Massie and the rest. They want to have some control over this in the Oversight Committee. Will that parallel effort continue if the discharge petition hits the floor?

[Jeannie Shanzano]

You know, I think Mike Johnson has been basically trying to make the case this is redundant, we don't need it. We're already addressing this through proper channels. As Morris said. I think he'll continue to make that case. But it is, to your point, a very sensitive issue for Republicans and they are going to feel the heat from the White House. I mean, there have been talk of threats from the White House already for the last several weeks. And so I think this is just going to continue to be a mess. Quite frankly, I don't see why the president doesn't just call for everything to be released because this is worse for him, this back and forth on it.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, of course he did on the campaign trail, which is why we keep talking about this, Jeannie. It's not something we'd be pursuing, I think otherwise. But I want to get into the shutdown stuff with you here.

[Terry Haines]

More.

[Joe Matthew]

We heard from Chuck Schumer. He showed up on TV this morning. I realize everybody's on recess right now, but no tie for the, for the Democratic leader as he sat down on msnbc and made clear that we have a problem. Let's listen.

[Nick Wadhams]

We know how bad it is. And we're asking something very simple, Joe, for the president to sit down and talk with us. You know, he's not the king. He can't just dictate what happened. He said he doesn't need Democrats. Well, then he doesn't know how to count because there are 60 votes in this Senate that you need to pass this, and he's got 53.

[Joe Matthew]

And of course, he's referring to the fact that President Trump yesterday decided that he would not be meeting with the Democratic leadership. Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have both been pressing for this meeting. And President Trump is not going to be playing along. Many folks see that as kind of the final straw, Mora, that there's just no way we're going to get around this. Even if it's a brief shutdown, we are shutting down. And as somebody who's been in the Speaker's office, I wonder if you agree.

[Maura Gillespie]

I don't think that a shutdown was ever a good decision. I've been through a couple. But I think what happened in March with Schumer not following through on it and Jefferies wanting to, they have to be lockstep. And even though I think the biggest problem is that they don't know how to get out of this, they're heading towards it. One of the problems, too, and Jeannie mentioned, you know, some of the their backs are against the wall. Well, that's true. Republicans have control. They have the messaging control as well, because there is no way out for Democrats necessarily. They came to the table with these three major visions that they wanted to talk to the president about tomorrow, which in reality, they probably should have just gone in with one or two. I don't think they have. These are three pretty lofty ones. The Obamacare subsidies, rolling back some things from the one big beautiful bill, and then, you know, talking about rescissions issues. I think if they had focused on one, maybe they'd have better success. But doing so, you've got seven days until shutdown is happening. That's the reality they're playing in right now. And Republicans will say that this is, you know, they gave a bill, they put a bill forward, the House is already in recess and Johnson's not bringing them back. And so it really does come down to what soon can get accomplished here.

[Joe Matthew]

Hakeem Jeffries on Twitter on X Genie Trump always chickens out. The Democratic leader goes for the taco. Donald Trump just canceled a high stakes meeting in the Oval. He says the extremists want to shut down the government because they are unwilling to address the Republican health care crisis that is devastating America. We've talked about the Fabrizio polling numbers over the expiration, the potential expiration of these Obamacare subsidies that would increase premiums for a lot of people. Jeannie, that could mean the midterms for Republicans. Is Hakeem Jeffries on the right talking points?

[Jeannie Shanzano]

I think he's on the right talking point with regard to the cancellation of the meeting. You know, a big problem for Democrats is and which is why I believe they should have taken the clean CR negotiated during the approach process on this because they are right. The subsidies are going to the expiration is going to hit very hard. But the problem for Democrats is if they are seen as shutting down the government and then these notices on the subsidy increases go out in October and they will be devastating. I think it's going to be very, very hard to message this over Donald Trump. And so that's the problem. And I also think they should look at the reality that Donald Trump, in my estimation, not Republicans, but Donald Trump, he wants a shutdown of this government. That's why he is not meeting. That's why they are moving in the way they are. I think he sees that as beneficial to him and of course to Russ Vote. And so I think this is a problem for Democrats. But again, I am in the total minority. I also think that Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries have no choice. The base would rebel the rank and power to rebel if they turned around again like Schumer did last time. So they are going to move right towards it. They have no, they have no choice at this point.

[Joe Matthew]

You know, you're hearing from a Washington insider when they refer to appropriations as appropriates, which is partly why I love you both. Maura, we've only got a minute left here. Does President Trump march up to Capitol Hill or is the story true that Russ Vote has a plan and they can't wait for it to close?

[Maura Gillespie]

Well, I think if you remember, the president will have extra powers about the really the budget and how spending is, you know, how we do spending in this country. And so yes, he does want a shutdown, I think in a little bit of ways because again, shows the powers he has. I think that's probably what Thune and Johnson reminded him that the shutdown may be beneficial for him because he has discretionary spending at his disposal. He gets to do some things that maybe he wouldn't get to do otherwise and any legal challenges won't hold up in court because he has presidential immunity.

[Joe Matthew]

Remember this conversation a week from today. Our great panel, Maura Gillespie, bluestack Strategies and of course Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shann Zaino. Thank you both. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at noontime [e-mail].

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Every business starts with an idea. How can you go from daydreamer to industry leader? Amazon Business accelerates your journey with smart business buying. Get everything you need to grow in one familiar place. From office supplies to IT essentials and maintenance tools. Amazon Business takes the buying experience you know and love from Amazon, plus tools that help you save costs and make insights based decisions ready to bring your visions to life. Learn [e-mail] Hiscock Small Business Insurance Knows there is no business like your business. Across America, over 600,000 small businesses, from accountants and architects to photographers and yoga instructors, look to Hiscox Insurance for protection. Find flexible coverage that adapts to the needs of your small business with a fast, easy online'@hiscox.com that's his c o x.com there's no business like small business. Hiscox Small Business Insurance.