NATO Tries to Keep Trump Onside

Summary

Balance of Power: "NATO Tries to Keep Trump Onside"

Podcast: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)
Date: July 7, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz
Guests: Anne Marie Horden (Bloomberg Chief Political Correspondent), Melinda Herring (Atlantic Council), Rick Davis (Bloomberg Politics Contributor), Jeannie Shanzano (Bloomberg Politics Contributor), Miriam Vogel (President & CEO, EqualAI)

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey, where President Trump’s attendance—and his evolving stance on critical defense commitments—is a pivotal topic. The hosts analyze high-stakes negotiations among NATO countries, President Trump’s bilateral dealings with Turkish President Erdogan, Ukraine’s urgent quest for air defenses, and broader implications for Russia’s war and European security policy. The show then pivots to major domestic political news—the implosion of a key Maine Senate campaign—before closing with an in-depth discussion of Anthropic’s AI breakthrough.

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1. NATO Summit in Ankara: Trump, Erdogan, and Defense Commitments

Key Issues Covered:

• President Trump’s attendance as a favor to President Erdogan
• Debate over reinstating Turkey into the F-35 fighter jet program
• Surge in European defense industrial deals
• NATO’s new 5% of GDP defense spending target

Main Points & Insights:

• President Trump hinted at reconsidering legal restrictions on selling F-35s to Turkey, despite existing Congressional bans due to Turkey’s prior purchase of Russian S-400 systems.
  • Quote: “Turkey has in many ways been much more loyal than other countries that we would think would be loyal. So something certainly we would consider.” (Joe Mathieu, paraphrasing President Trump, [02:03])
• Announcement of $50B+ in deals with European defense contractors, indicating a shift away from reliance solely on U.S. manufacturers like Boeing.
• NATO’s renewed push to reindustrialize its defense sector, with an agreement on defense spending splits: 3.5% hardware and 1.5% infrastructure.
  • Quote: “Europe’s going to have to... truly reindustrialize their defense industrial base.” (Anne Marie Horden, [03:14])

Notable Segment:

• [03:14]–[04:41]: Anne Marie Horden details the summit’s industrial ramifications and the F-35 controversy.

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2. Ukraine, Patriot Missiles & the Changing Battlefield

Key Issues Covered:

• Ukraine's request for Patriot air defense systems
• Impact of possible U.S. licensing for domestic Ukrainian manufacture
• Shifts in battlefield dynamics, Ukrainian advances, and morale

Main Points & Insights:

• Ukraine pushing NATO/US for more Patriot missiles after inability to intercept ballistic attacks on Kyiv; licensing for on-site production would be a "game changer."
  • Quote: “If the US were willing to give its licensing permission just to Ukraine, that would be a game changer.” (Melinda Herring, [06:44])
• U.S. production limitations—not operating on a 24-hour basis for defense systems—offered as a fixable bottleneck.
  • Quote: “Come on. President Trump can make a phone call and fix this today.” (Melinda Herring, [07:22])
• Ukraine’s improved drone and long-range strike capabilities are fundamentally altering the kill ratio and inflicting major damage on Russian refineries and supply lines.
  • Quote: “Now one Ukrainian is killed for every five Russian. The math has really, really changed.” (Melinda Herring, [10:10])
• Russia's forced conscription (including from prisons and marginalized groups) signals deep manpower and morale problems.

Notable Segment:

• [06:30]–[11:00]: Melinda Herring explains the consequences of U.S. export policy, Russia’s vulnerabilities, and Ukraine’s technological progress.

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3. Sanctions and the Russian Economy

Key Issues Covered:

• Prospects for new U.S. and EU sanctions on Russia
• Skepticism over effectiveness and enforcement

Main Points & Insights:

• Doubts raised about the determination of the U.S. administration to ramp up Russian sanctions—despite EU’s more aggressive approach.
  • Quote: “This administration does not like sanctions on Russia, and we’ve seen them back away on sanctions on Russia. The EU has put, I think, 24 or 25 packages in place.” (Melinda Herring, [11:34])
• Sanctions highlighted as a process requiring continual tightening due to Russia’s capacity for evasion.

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4. Putin’s Security, Approval, and the "New Spartas" of Warfare

Key Issues Covered:

• Putin’s personal and administrative paranoia
• The consensus on NATO’s renewed strength, including new members and a militarized Ukraine

Main Points & Insights:

• Putin is “paranoid,” avoiding public appearances and imposing strict security on his entourage.
  • Quote: “If you could take such a poll is the clause that we need to emphasize. So his numbers are terrible, and there are splits... Vladimir Putin is paranoid.” (Melinda Herring, [12:31])
• Ukraine transformed into what Melinda Herring calls a “new Sparta”—a small but highly militarized state innovating with technology.
  • Quote: “Ukraine has become Sparta. It’s a small, militarized state. And forget Russia, China, and great power politics... The new Spartas is actually the watchword for the next period to come.” (Melinda Herring, [13:57])

Notable Segment:

• [11:56]–[14:24]: Discussion of Putin’s grip on power, insecurity, and the historic transformation of Ukraine and NATO.

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5. BREAKING US POLITICS: The Maine Senate Race Implosion

Key Issues Covered:

• Sexual assault allegations against Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner
• Sudden rescinding of endorsements and campaign funding
• Consequential scramble to find a Democratic replacement

Main Points & Insights:

• Swift withdrawal of party backing, including from Bernie Sanders, and calls for Platner’s exit.
  • Quote: “I've spoken with Graham Platner about the best path forward for Maine... I have recommended that he step aside.” (Paraphrased by Kailey Leinz, [17:07])
• Political commentators blame the Democratic Party for not acting sooner, which may cost them a “must win” swing state seat.

Panel Highlights:

• Jeannie Shanzano: “Democrats deserve better from their party... the entire party has egg on its face.” ([19:56])
• Rick Davis: “It's just stunning that this has been a debate for months and nothing's been done about his candidacy.” ([21:50])
• Discussion of strategy and resource allocation if a new Democrat steps in: Maine remains competitive, but it's a scramble for the party.

Notable Segment:

• [17:07]–[26:40]: The political fallout, party miscalculations, and future strategies for Democrats in key Senate races.

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6. SPECIAL REPORT: Anthropic’s 'J Space' – AI’s “Subconscious” Unveiled

Key Issues Covered:

• Anthropic identifies the ‘J space’ in its AI (Claude): a hidden internal workspace reminiscent of a subconscious
• Implications for AI explainability, governance, and safety
• Distinguishing between functional transparency and true machine consciousness

Main Points & Insights:

• Discovery: Claude generates outputs through internal reasoning states not visible in the final prediction—akin to a subconscious.
  • Quote (Joe Mathieu intro): “Anthropic identifying an internal workspace inside Claude that it did not design, that Claude uses to manipulate ideas without putting them into words. Consider your own subconscious, but in this case, subconsciousness is in a computer.” ([29:36])
• When J space is disabled, Claude's reasoning quality decreases, suggesting these hidden processes are necessary for robust AI decisions.
• Miriam Vogel (AI legal/policy expert) emphasizes that while the term “conscious” is eye-catching, real value is in the new transparency and opportunities for external oversight.
  • Quote: “What will save us is understanding that there is such a thing as the J space... we have to understand that there are these depths of process and reasoning that are leading to these outputs.” (Miriam Vogel, [34:04])
• Importance for policymakers: Such hidden layers can help regulatory bodies audit, grade, and control advanced models pre-release, enhancing public trust.
  • Quote: “We cannot continue to only test outputs. We have to understand that there is this whole J space, and we're probably going to learn more as time goes on.” (Miriam Vogel, [34:04])

Notable Science Demo:

• [35:08]: Anthropic's team asks Claude to copy a sentence while thinking about the “Golden Gate Bridge”—revealing behind-the-scenes mental imagery (“bridge in California”) visible only in J space.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "If the US were willing to give its licensing permission just to Ukraine, that would be an absolute game changer." (Melinda Herring, [06:44])
• "Now one Ukrainian is killed for every five Russian. The math has really, really changed." (Melinda Herring, [10:10])
• "Ukraine has become Sparta. It’s a small, militarized state... The new Spartas is actually the watchword for the next period to come." (Melinda Herring, [13:57])
• "What's exciting is this window into understanding how the models work... we can now start to better govern these machines because we can better understand their processes." (Miriam Vogel, [32:41])
• "What will save us is understanding that there is such a thing as the J space." (Miriam Vogel, [34:04])
• "This is an important step forward and it's great that this is being shared with the general public in addition to the government." (Miriam Vogel, [38:54])

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Key Timestamps

• 00:55–04:41: NATO Summit, Turkey’s F-35 status, defense spending, Anne Marie Horden’s live reporting
• 06:30–14:24: Ukraine’s war prospects, changing military balance, sanctions on Russia, Putin analysis
• 17:07–27:54: Maine Senate scandal, party fallout, campaign repercussions
• 29:36–39:37: Anthropic’s ‘J space’, AI transparency, functional consciousness, regulatory implications

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Episode Mood & Tone

• Direct, analytical, and urgent in geostrategic segments—mirroring the high-stakes nature of NATO-Russia-U.S. dynamics.
• Candid, even critical, in domestic political commentary, especially regarding party failings.
• Inquisitive and cautiously optimistic during the AI segment, balancing wonder at new discoveries with grounded calls for governance and transparency.

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Summary

This episode captures global power transitions—from the halls of NATO to the frontlines in Ukraine, and from American campaign crises to the uncharted depths of AI cognition. Whether reporting on summit handshakes, battlefield innovations, political implosions, or AI’s mysterious “subconscious,” the hosts deliver brisk, thorough, and insightful coverage for listeners eager to understand not just today’s headlines but the forces shaping tomorrow.

Transcript

[Joe Matthew]

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[Kailey Leinz]

Kailey Leinz alongside Joe Matthew in Washington. But it's Ankara that we have our eyes on at the moment as the NATO summit underway in Turkey and right now leaders of NATO countries are walking in to a dinner. As the proceedings get going here, a lot of circumstance involved in the arrivals themselves. Of course, the host country of NATO, Turkey and its president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, are part of the reason why President Trump is in attendance at this NAITO summit. He has suggested it's a favor to Erdogan, essentially that he decided to join with everyone else over the course of these few days. And we did see a bilateral meeting happening between him and Erdogan earlier today, just after the president was wheeled down in Turkey where he was asked about that relationship in particular.

[Miriam Vogel]

Mr. President, are you going to sell F35s to Turkey?

[Melinda Herring]

And what about the legal restrictions?

[Joe Matthew]

It's a decision we're going to make. We have a very good relationship. I would think that many people, I can tell you, many people, including the people sitting right here, thinks why wouldn't we do that, have a better relationship with Turkey?

[Rick Davis]

And Turkey has been in many ways much more loyal than other countries that

[Joe Matthew]

we think would be loyal. So something certainly we would consider. It's a great plane. It's the best currently, the best plane by far. And it's certainly something we will consider. A little difficult to hear the president there who was some distance away from reporters. We need to get a better boom mic, I think in Turkey. He did say Turkey has in many ways been much more loyal than other countries that we would think would be loyal. So we got some things we would consider and it sounds a lot like he is moving closer to that line. Reinstating turkey in the F35 program, something that might not be considered good news in Tel Aviv. Let's get to Ankara right now. Bloomberg correspondent Annmarie Horden, our chief political correspondent, is traveling with the president in Ankara and joins us live right now as the sun is setting behind her. This will be an important dinner, I suppose, Anne Marie, but so many deals have already been hammered out, $50 billion and more than we've seen in the past going to European defense contractors. What can you tell us?

[Anne Marie Horden]

Well, Europe's going to have to really go to local contractors and manufacturers when it comes to starting to really truly re industrialize their defense industrial base. You heard Mark Rutter for weeks now talking about how really this summit is, is about the transatlantic alliance reindustrializing. So that means they're going to have to rely on some systems they've always relied on from the United States. But there's going to be more deals and we saw that with the rollout of the $50 billion deal so far. We know that instead of Boeing, they're going to sob for some sort of aircraft. So there are going to be other manufacturers they bring into the fold because remember, this meeting is about trying to meet the target they set they set last year and that was a 5% of GDP defense target, 3 1/2% going to all of the hardware, ammunition, the tools you're going to need to build that industrial base and then one and a half percent the support, the bridges, the roads, the ports when it comes about providing the infrastructure for a defense industrial base. So those are the deals so far. And then of course, the big one we're all waiting for is any sort of concrete details how the President, United States sees Turkey really coming back to the F35 program given the fact that there is a law in Congress that bars them from it because they of course bought S4 hundreds from Russia.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, on the subject of Russia, Anne Marie, I would imagine that that is going to be a dinner topic of conversation this evening and clearly a topic of conversation between Vladimir Zelensky and President Trump in their bilateral meeting tomorrow. What, if anything, in terms of deliverables for Ukraine is expected out of this summit?

[Anne Marie Horden]

Well, Ukraine is really once again trying to implore the alliance and the United States to send more Patriot air defense missiles. And we heard from Rock Rutger, the secretary General, saying that there's not a ton of interceptors that could just be easily moved around when it comes to to the alliance. This is really important for Zelinsky, especially given the past few days. We saw a wave of attacks on Kiev and some of the defenses weren't able to shoot down Ballistic missiles. And that is why he is saying the next battle of this war is being fought in the air. And that is why he's imploring the United States for more of the Patriot missiles now. For months there has been talk, and this was brought up as well at the G7 summit in France. There has been talk of maybe giving Ukraine a license to manufacture and build those defense systems in country. And I spoke to the Finnish president, Alexander Stube earlier today and he said that would definitely be a welcome gesture. And it comes at a time that he says Europe is trying to salvage their relationship with this White House.

[Kailey Leinz]

All right, Bloomberg's Anne Marie Horden, our chief political correspondent, live on the ground in Ankara for this NATO summit. Thank you so much. And as we consider the question of Ukraine and the ongoing war with Russia, we bring in now Melinda Herring, who is a non resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council who's joining us in our Washington, D.C. studio. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Melinda, it's good to see you.

[Melinda Herring]

Great to be with you.

[Kailey Leinz]

As Anne Marie was just outlining, clearly Ukraine has been vocal about the need for more Patriot systems. If it gets it, would Ukraine be able to win this war outright?

[Melinda Herring]

Can I say hold, hold that thought for a minute. So I think Anne Marie's right that there are a limited number of Patriot interceptors. But the big discussion is two things. So it is. There is a finite number of these things. But if the US Were willing to give its licensing permission just to Ukraine, that would be a game changer. That would be an absolute game changer. There's something else the US can do as well. So if you go to the factory where these Pac threes are made, it's in Camden, Arkansas. They're not on a 24 hour schedule. I think that's incredible. We're more than four and a half years into the war. Come on. President Trump can make a phone call and fix this today.

[Rick Davis]

Wow.

[Joe Matthew]

So there could be ways of expanding the defense industrial base right now overnight with a phone call. To your point, shy of the hardware, we've seen a remarkable advance. Bold moves by Ukraine striking deeper into Russia and they've been answered by very heavy ballistic missile attacks on civilian areas in Kiev. But what has been the change in mindset to be able to see Ukraine reach so deeply into Russia and actually begin a conversation about whether it can win this war? It's a very different place than we were in a year or two ago. How much is that affecting the feeling and hopes on the ground?

[Melinda Herring]

Joe, it is a massive change. I was in Kiev in December and it was one of the grimmest periods. You guys know that I go there a lot. This is my 10th year trip there. And I was sleeping in the basement every night in one of the nice hotels, waking up to the smell of tires because you're so far down in the ground, you're in a parking garage sleeping. And I couldn't get to the train station because there were missile strikes and the mood was so grim. And Ukraine barely made it through the winter. It is, it is hard to describe. Day and night, black and white doesn't even do justice to the feeling. But Ukrainians on that trip, I got to go to Firepoint. And Firepoint is the Ukrainian company that's making the long range rockets and they're getting better and better at hitting refineries. So Ukraine has managed to hit all of Russia's major refineries except for one. So Ukraine, this technology is improving and its drones, its long range drones are improving as well.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so when we consider that improvement in technology, in morale, is there a sense that Ukraine could end up on the winning side of this conflict, or does it still ultimately need to be a negotiated outcome that's pursued?

[Melinda Herring]

So wars always end in negotiations, but right now there is a strategy in place on the Ukrainian side to push as hard as possible with these long range strikes. And the idea is to, to compel Vladimir Putin to actually come to the negotiating table. And I think it's working. We see the Russian economy is in trouble and we see increasing pressure and we see, we see the Ukrainian side getting closer and closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg and we see elite splits as well. So is it going to change overnight with no. But the Ukrainians also did something really wise. They've been interrupting supply lines around Crimea and putting huge pressure on logistics. And that's how you win wars.

[Joe Matthew]

Interesting. We've talked for years about this now, which is pretty remarkable to think about. In many of our conversations, you've led us to the realization that it's manpower just as much as it is material. We can give all the bombs, tanks and weapons we can make, but Ukraine needs to have people to wear uniforms and go shoot those weapons. This was becoming harder with time. Where, where is the recruitment effort now?

[Melinda Herring]

So that has, that discussion has actually changed. You and I had this discussion about, oh my God, there's not enough Ukrainian troops to hold the front line. So because Ukraine has invested so much in its drone technology, the kill ratio has really changed. So now one Ukrainian is killed for every five Russian. So this is actually. The Russians don't have enough soldiers. Now. The math has really, really changed. The Russian side is losing 35,000 troops a month. That's an enormous number. And they're not able to replenish their side.

[Joe Matthew]

They're pulling in through conscripts, even through jails.

[Melinda Herring]

Well, they. So Putin has a political problem. He doesn't want. He doesn't want to have a draft, so he's trying to avoid that. And he's been pulling people out of jail. He uses drug addicts. You know, the people that he's putting on the front line are not a great fighting force. These are not West Point graduates. Right, Joe?

[Joe Matthew]

Yes. Sound like it.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and as we consider the pressure that the personnel challenges will put on the Kremlin, there's also the question of additional financial pressure. Bloomberg had reported previously about the notion that even the Russian Finance Ministry was talking about the cost of this war being untenable. And then there's the question of tougher sanctions as well. There was reporting in the Wall Street Journal today, Melinda, that on the sidelines of the NATO summit, a group of lawmakers are going to be meeting with the Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessant, to talk about a bill that would intensify Russian sanctions. What would that do ultimately, do you think, if it were to come to fruition?

[Melinda Herring]

So I'm really skeptical. This administration does not like sanctions on Russia, and we've seen them back away on sanctions on Russia. So I think it's fabulous. They should absolutely do it. The EU has put, I think, 24 or 25 packages in place. And with sanctions, you have to keep fine tuning them because the Russians are masters at sanctions evasion.

[Joe Matthew]

We should note that French President Emmanuel Macron is just arriving at the NAITO dinner and posing for photographs with President Erdogan. And we're told that President Trump's motorcade should be arriving imminently here. If you're with us on YouTube or Bloomberg TV, there's a live view as the dignitaries get together to break bread. And of course, Ukraine will be part of that conversation. So, too will Russia. And I'm wondering your thoughts on Vladimir Putin's place in the universe right now. What is his level of security? What is his approval rating in Russia? If you could take such a poll.

[Melinda Herring]

So if you could take such a poll is the clause that we need to emphasize. So his numbers are terrible, and there are splits between the presidential administration and the security services. And there's a growing number of people that want him to Back away. And then there's a growing number of people that want to increase pressure. But Vladimir Putin is paranoid. He takes high security risks. A bunch of papers have reported all of the different ways that he's trying to stay out of the public. He's not giving a lot of public speeches anymore because he's afraid of the security.

[Joe Matthew]

Should he be?

[Melinda Herring]

Yes, of course he should be afraid of this. The Ukrainians are really clever at these things. And we've seen the Ukrainians pull off, you know, all kinds of, if I were Vladimir Putin, I would be afraid of the Ukrainian security services, too. But, Joe, it was even people around Putin who work in his entourage can't take an Uber or they can't take the Moscow Metro. That's how paranoid he is. And I think he took their phones away from them, too.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and of course, that's just as he considers the threat posed by Ukraine. Of course, he in part went into Ukraine in the first place over four years ago because he was concerned that Ukraine might one day become a member of naito. Now, as we see the NATO alliance gathering in Ankara with a pursuit of 5% of spending of GDP on defense, has this all ultimately backfired with his aims here? Is it a stronger Naito that has emerged out of these last many years?

[Melinda Herring]

Absolutely. We have two new NAITO members and Ukraine has become Sparta. It's a small, militarized state. And forget Russia, China and great power politics. That that's the wrong way of looking at the world. Now. It's about Israel, Rwanda and Ukraine. These are countries that are militarized and they have high tech sectors and they're going to be innovating. And this is going to be the new Spartas is actually the watchword for the next period to come.

[Joe Matthew]

Really fascinating. Melinda, it's great to have you back in the mix here. Don't be a stranger. We should be talking about this more, not less. Melinda Herring is nonresident senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and has been indispensable in helping us understand the contours of this war in Ukraine. As President Trump arrives at the palace walking solo up the blue carpet, Caylee, he'll be standing side by side in just a moment here with President Erdogan. This is just day one of the NATO summit, which with much more to follow tomorrow.

[Kailey Leinz]

Indeed, of course, he's already met with Erdogan once for a bilateral meeting today. But tomorrow, in addition to the meetings happening with all of the leaders together, he will have that bilateral meeting with the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who, as we were just discussing with Melinda, has reason to be more confident at this NATO summit than he may have had reason to be just months ago. Seeing now President Trump shaking hands with President Erdogan. Many of the other NATO leaders have already walked into this dinner. We just saw Friedrich Merz of Germany, Mark Carney of Canada and Emmanuel Macron of France making their arrivals to A

[Joe Matthew]

lot more to follow. Stay with us here On Balance of Power. We're live in Washington with an eye on Ankara and Ukraine for that matter. Stay with us On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Kailey Leinz]

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[Kailey Leinz]

I'm Kelly Leinz alongside Joe Matthew in Washington, where we're tracking more dominoes falling that appear to be cascading toward the end of Graham Platner's campaign for Senate in Maine. Of course, allegations surfaced yesterday, first published by Politico and then an interview on CNN from a woman that Platinum dated years ago who suggested an alleged that that Platner sexually assaulted her. Allegations that he denies, though he still is considering the path forward for his campaign in the face of them. As all this came out yesterday afternoon, we saw pretty immediately key voices in the Democratic Party polling their endorsement from Platner. Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona, Congressman Ro Khanna of California, the dscc, Kirsten Gillibrand, who runs it, and Chuck Schumer both suggested they would not support financially backing plans Platner's campaign any longer. And now Senator Bernie Sanders, who was a big supporter of Platner, has also pulled his endorsement. It seems he said on Twitter earlier today, I've spoken with Graham Platner about the best path forward for Maine. In light of these very serious allegations, I have recommended that he step aside. Of course, Platner has not done so yet, even though his video statement released yesterday evening did indicate it could be a potential outcome here.

[Joe Matthew]

Any accusation of non consensual behavior is categorically false. Regardless of the inaccuracy of the reporting, but mindful of the political reality it will inflict, we are taking the time to reflect on the best path forward for the state that I love, the people that I love, the movement I belong to and the goal of defeating Susan Collins. Those were the goals when we launched this campaign and they remain my goals today. Those words, time to reflect on the best path forward are still resonating. We have not heard from Platner since then. To Kaylee's point, he's lost a series of key endorsements. And now the Chuck Schumer aligned Senate Majority PAC says it is, quote, redirecting resources away from the main Senate race. In light of these allegations, this is now going to set off a series of actions that will presumably include his dropping out of the race. He has until Monday to do so, allowing the party to pick another contender to be on the ballot. And this is where we start our conversation with our great political panel. Back together today on Bloomberg TV and radio, Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capitol, alongside Democratic analyst Jeannie Shanzano, Democracy visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School School's Ash Center. How much time, Jeannie, does Platner have to make a decision here? Obviously the real deadline is Monday, but the party is going to want every minute it can get here, right?

[Jeannie Shanzano]

Yeah. I mean, I think Bernie Sanders statement that you were just talking about, that is a sign that this is imminent. He has to drop out. It's not just an issue of the support he's lost, which is tremendous. It's the money. They're not going to put money into this campaign in Maine unless he's off the ballot. So I think it's a matter of time and he should do the right thing. And drop out immediately given the main Democrats time to choose an alternative candidate. But can I just say about this victim, she is, her allegations are incredibly credible. Some people questioning the timing on this thing. She's talking about breaking and entering in sexual assault. Democrats should require that he drop out of this race immediately and that they're able to replace him. And Democrats deserve better from their party. I mean, this is so frustrating, a must win state and you allow the Democratic progressives to come in and get somebody who we knew had so many awful charges against them and you allow this to occur. I mean, I think the entire party has egg on its face and there's going to be a lot to answer for because this is what happens in the Senate is this race. And so Democratic Democrats rather across the country are just livid and right. They should be.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and we should note the victim who Jeannie is talking about said she was hesitant to come forward in part because she agrees with Platner's politics. She just doesn't support the man as a candidate. But she also, it seems, was worried about the notion of it damaging the, the Democrats ability to flip the seat from Susan Collins. So Rick, weigh in here. Is Maine now potentially a lost cause for Democrats even if someone else steps up?

[Rick Davis]

It's hard to say if this is the death knell of a campaign against Susan Collins. I mean, I would remind everybody that we've been having this debate around Graham Platner for months. The idea that it took Jenny Racket to do this interview yesterday to actually finally get this guy to withdraw is a little bit embarrassing for the party that claims that they really support women's health. It's just stunning that this has been a debate for months and nothing's been done about his candidacy. The reality is Susan Collins was starting to pull away from Graham Platner. She was ahead in most of the polls. Even though it's margin of error, it's a significant difference than where this race was only a month ago. And I would say the big flashing red light is what is the main party going to do about it assuming Graham Platner gets out before Monday. They got to, they got to pick a candidate. Now are they going to run a process? Are they going to have a mini primary? Are they going to do what Joe Biden probably should have done, which is leave it to party regulars to pick their nominee, or are they going to put their finger on the scale and say, okay, we've chosen this individual to replace him. This is a really important transition that the party's got to go through, and they're only going to get one shot at it now. And so I really am very keen to see what happens in the post Grand Platner campaign with the main party deciding what to do next.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, one thing we learned throughout the day yesterday and on the late edition of Balance of Power is that nobody's looking at Janet Mills. It would likely be somebody who is in the gubernatorial primary Genie and unclear exactly how that shakes out in the next couple of days. Blattner is still technically the candidate. You can weigh in on that if you want. But I'm just curious, getting back to what Rick just said, what is the lesson learned here by the likes of Elizabeth Warren, Ruben Gallego, Martin Heinrich Ro Khanna, Bernie Sanders, all of whom had opportunities with the Nazi tattoo, with the sexting stories, with the, with the extramarital affairs and all the other scandals that have been swirling around Graham Platner here? They all had an opportunity to say no at some point. And I'm wondering what the lesson is now, realizing that Democrats see Republicans endorsing someone like Ken Paxton and are wondering why they don't have to apologize when Democrats in many cases do. Yet this is a party seeking the high moral ground on issues to Rick's point, like women's rights. How do we rationalize what just happened?

[Jeannie Shanzano]

Yeah, and Joe, I think, you know, the issue is so complicated because it wasn't a matter of vetting. We keep hearing people say, well, he wasn't properly vetted, as Rick talked about. We knew about these allegations and you just listed some of them. And there's more than we can account for here. And we knew this was coming down the pike. And yet you had respected members of the party, Elizabeth Warren and others coming out in support of this man. Why? Because the voters of Maine went with him. And this gets me back to the Democratic Party itself. It cannot walk away from these states, particularly a key one like Maine, and say we're going to allow the Democratic socialists to come in, Morris Katz, Bernie Sanders and the others, and choose a nominee and then go in and say we're going to get behind Janet Mills. And let's not forget what they did. They got behind Janet Mills, who has, you know, not a lot of support. She is obviously the governor has support there, but it's not a lot of support for a Senate race. She's not a progressive in the way that voters want. And they kicked out or they sort of pushed out people. Like we had the founder of the beer company, the main beer Company thinking of coming in as a populist, they moved him out. And so that's where the responsibility lies. You've got to have a party that can go in and support potential candidates who don't come with all this baggage, who are progressives and populists, who will run against Wall street like Lieber was going to do, and who can do it and be authentic in a way that the party can support. So I blame this on the party and not so much the members who, after people voted, came out and said, we're going to support this guy.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so, Rick, as we consider how Maine fits into the wider map here in the midterms, if you were running Senate Majority Packer inside the DCC right now, would you be thinking about allocating more resources to Maine if a new candidate gets on the ballot, or instead allocating more resources to other states, Texas, Iowa, Alaska, in the hopes that you may be able to flip one of them in instead?

[Rick Davis]

Well, you think about it. Texas is a state that went, you know, plus 13 for Donald Trump, and Trump actually lost Maine. Susan Collins is the only Republican on the ballot in this cycle from a state that Donald Trump lost, a Republican from a state that Donald Trump lost. So, you know, you've got to play the odds. I mean, Democrats would be out of their minds not to double down on Maine, but I think it would be great if they look to other places like Texas, you know, because a dollar in Maine goes a long way. A dollar in Texas doesn't get you across the street. And, and so you want to spend $100 million in Texas or $25 million in Maine. It's, it's tough decisions for a PAC like that, but made a little bit easier even for Democrats, you know, with the latest Supreme Court decision where they can coordinate. So now they can sit down with whoever is going to be the candidate and, and say, okay, here's the package we're going to do. We're going to run your tv, we're going to run your ground game. We're going to spend $50 million, and this is how your campaign is going to run. So it does make it easier in a situation like this to mount a campaign with outside resources in coordination with the campaign.

[Kailey Leinz]

All right, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, our Bloomberg Politics contributors, thank you so much for discussion on those who could one day hold seats in the Senate.

[Joe Matthew]

Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

I've been really looking forward to this conversation and the story. What I think of as the story of the day. It stopped me in my tracks this morning as I'm doing the read in. Usually it's the doom scroll. It was a little bit this morning, but then I started thinking about what a breakthrough this might be. Do we end up looking back on the 7th of July as maybe something bigger than Deep Seek? Is that as good as it gets? Because this seems more like what we've been talking about. Anthropic identifying an internal workspace inside Claude that it did not design, that Claude uses to manipulate ideas without putting them into words. Consider your own subconscious, but in this case, subconsciousness is in a computer. The J space it is called, named for Anthropic's new Jacobian lens, as I read from the company's website, a small internal workspace shaping Claude's reasoning, but it never appears in output. Now they put up a great video this morning. You can actually see it on YouTube if you're watching us with a great voiceover. And of course, nobody would frame this better than Anthropic itself. Think of the mind like an ocean. Up on the surface are our thoughts, dinner plans and stray worries, our inner monologue, the images that pop into our heads. But most of our Brain's activity happens down in the unconscious depths without us realizing it. It's filtering out background sounds, controlling our breathing, the stuff you do all day, helping us recognize people and objects. And AI models have their own kinds of brain brains. Question is, could a model have anything like the divide humans have between accessible thoughts above the surface and unconscious thoughts below? We may have just gotten an answer, and I think it's yes, right? AI models, as Anthropic says, are built differently than human brains and they're trained differently. So it is remarkable to see the structure like the J space, emerge from inside of them. Something reminiscent of how human minds work, but which we did not program into the model. Anthropic is finding things inside Claude that it did not design. And in this case, maybe the most fascinating thing to emerge yet. There was one phone call we made when we read this story, and it was to Miriam Vogel, one of the smartest minds we have been able to share with you on AI, who did not come here with a warning or her own doom scroll. It was in fact, a message of optimism and what I could bring to our lives and to our world that might make it better. She wrote the book Governing the Machine, how to Navigate the Risks of AI and Unlock Its True Potential. Miriam Vogel, the president and CEO of Equal AI, is with us live now on Bloomberg. And Miriam, I'm delighted that you could come along. I'm just going to go for the fastball on this. The most obvious question then, do we now understand that AI models could be conscious?

[Miriam Vogel]

Thanks so much for having me and for asking this important question, Joe. I think we need to look at what they said in the paper themselves, and that is that they've used this very provocative term, conscious, but they are being very limited in what they mean about consciousness. So it's a very interesting philosophical question, even religious question, when we're talking about consciousness. But here in this paper, they are limiting it to a framework, functional description of. With this, as they describe the J space, this separate context that's informing the outputs, what they are really giving us is this window into understanding how the models works, how the models work. And for me, that's the most exciting part. So while there's this really interesting side, very provocative conversation, they have also explicitly directed us to the critical point here, and that is we can now start to better go govern these machines because we can better understand their processes.

[Joe Matthew]

To that end, when switching off the J space, Claude had more trouble reasoning, which is fascinating here. Maybe there's a new potential to put A governor on these models. I guess to your point, the J space actually caught Claude in making up fake data is the J space. What will save us, Miriam?

[Miriam Vogel]

What will save us is understanding that there is such a thing as the J space. That what we are understanding is that Anthropic has showed us. Claude has developed its own process for giving us these very robust, thoughtful answers that we are coming to rely on in really pivotal systems across society. So what we have to understand is that there are these depths of process and reasoning that are leading to these outputs. And what that tells us is we cannot continue to only test outputs. We have to understand that there is this whole J space, and we're probably going to learn more as time goes on. This is a first step in what I believe will be a really important expedition. I mean, they have so nicely phrased this as the top layer of the ocean where so many of our brains operate. And so I think again, it can get complicated thinking of the depths of the ocean and consciousness. But I think the important point they're trying to tell us is we've been operating at a surface level and there's a great depth that we need to be more transparent on as we start to understand it more so that we can govern it.

[Joe Matthew]

Fascinating. In a couple of instances, Anthropic walked us through some of the the testing that it did with the J space. It asked it to do a math problem, which Claude accomplished very quickly, showing step by step reasoning only in the J space. It gave a just a final answer on the top layer of the ocean. But when we looked underneath, we actually saw the work. We saw Claude showing its math in the J space. Then things got to be a little bit more abstract. Anthropic told Claude to think about the Golden Gate Bridge while also copying an unrelated sentence. And Claude copied the sentence, but behind the scenes, the bridge in California, those two words popped up in the J space and it even showed that it was thinking about its own thinking. Claude has some control over filling the J space with ideas. And this is what gets people wondering if in fact it could spawn its own consciousness. How long will it be before we know? Miriam?

[Miriam Vogel]

Well, I think we need to applaud the fact that this research has been coming out. You know, Anthropic has been continuing to keep us posted on these developments. And while it's really interesting and informative to be focusing on these words that like consciousness and to be thinking about what this means and how it connects to be our own thinking, what really is the point here? Is that we can better understand the processes, you know, understanding that we cannot again, as I said, simply be looking at outputs. This will be really important as we get to the next phase of AI, which many organizations are already in with agentic AI and as you know, Joe, will be increasingly moving humans from the process. So in this transparent report, we can see that there was a whole nother subset of reasoning that the simple outputs would not have been indicative of. We need to continue to support this kind of research. We need to applaud the fact that this, that this is what's happening in this organization, that they are sharing what they are learning very broadly. It's the transparency here that is key and that will build the trust. As you know, Joe, there's not a lot of trust for AI in society right now. It is not something topic that is engendering a lot of goodwill or trust. We know that there's an overwhelming concern that is more fearful of AI, the general public has more fear, positive sentiment about AI and what we should look at this report as doing is an important step forward in building that trust by being transparent. So while it's using evocative words that are really interesting and a great way to point of question for philosophers and scientists about consciousness, what it's actually doing is helping us get into the layers of the ocean and better understand what are these systems informing us. And as we increasingly take humans out of the process through gentic AI, this will be critical so that we can understand what are, what are the underlying root causes that are informing these outputs.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, see, this is why we called you Miriam. It's very easy to fall into the Skynet trap with this story. And I'm fascinated by the way you're choosing your answers. So last time we spoke was before the White House started testing and grading things like Mythos, Fable and other AI models that it's basically become the control center. As we know, the most recent model of Mythos is still under wraps because they saw this potential for a jailbreak. Could the J space help officials, whether in the administration or anywhere else, grade the safety and efficacy of an AI model before it goes public again?

[Miriam Vogel]

I think this is an important step forward and it's great that this is being shared with the general public in addition to the government. The more all of us understand what AI is, what its capabilities are and its limitations. That's a key part, not just what its capable.

[Joe Matthew]

Does every AI model have a J space or is this an anthropic thing?

[Miriam Vogel]

Well, it's a great question, and that's something we should encourage more companies to be transparent about. They should also be doing this testing. I hope and trust they are, and they should be sharing it publicly. That is the key thing that we should be embracing here. The more they are learning and sharing with the public, the better we can understand what it is. The better we can govern it, the more trust we can be bringing through this transparency.

[Rick Davis]

Great.

[Joe Matthew]

Miriam, thank you so much for joining us to share your insights. She does this for a living and I'm delighted that you're back in our conversation. Miriam Vogel, President CEO/AI the book again Governing the Machine how to Navigate the Risks of AI and Unlock its True potential thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail]

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