Balance of Power Podcast: "Rubio Tapped for Venezuela Overhaul, House Returns from Recess"
Date: January 6, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu and Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg)
Guests: John Bolton (former National Security Adviser), Rick Davis, Jeannie Shanzano, Nathan Dean
Episode Overview
This episode centers on two primary themes:
- The Biden administration’s dramatic shift in U.S. policy towards Venezuela following the ousting and capture of Nicolás Maduro, and Senator Marco Rubio’s appointment to oversee this new "overhaul."
- The return of the U.S. House of Representatives from recess, including legislative updates, midterm strategy, and a look at the political dynamics on January 6th, five years after the Capitol riot.
Notable guests—particularly John Bolton, former National Security Adviser—provide sharp foreign policy analysis and candid reactions to both Venezuela developments and broader U.S. foreign policy implications, including ramifications for China, Iran, and American oil interests.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Venezuela Policy Overhaul & U.S. Strategy
The Ousting of Maduro and U.S. Leverage
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John Bolton argues the "right thing" was done in removing Maduro, but is deeply skeptical that real regime change has occurred:
"We've removed Maduro, but the regime is still there. There's no regime change at this point."
— John Bolton [03:25] -
The Trump administration is seen as favoring Delsey Rodriguez (Maduro’s close ally) to bridge government and private sector in the oil reboot, raising concerns about legitimacy and feasibility.
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Discussion of U.S. leverage includes continued oil embargoes and "military armada" threats, but Bolton questions whether U.S. pressure will achieve democratic transition:
"I'd like to know what the plan is, if that's what they think they're going to do... I think people are dreaming."
— John Bolton [06:19]
On Working With Rodriguez & Rebuilding Oil
- Hosts cite Bloomberg reporting that Rodriguez is viewed as essential for a transitional government, expected to attract private investment and rebuild Venezuela's devastated oil sector.
- Bolton is dubious about American oil majors investing in current conditions:
"I'd like to know what CEO of what major American oil company is just getting all of his top advisers together to get on a plane to go to Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela."
— John Bolton [07:53]
The Marginalization of Maria Corina Machado
- Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado appeared on Fox News, signaling readiness to return to Venezuela and referencing her Nobel Peace Prize.
- Bolton laments the administration’s damaging stance towards the opposition:
"I think they damaged her and the opposition very badly on Saturday. The opposition, just ordinary people inside Venezuela, wonder what it means when the US doesn't trust its leadership."
— John Bolton [09:28] - Bolton wryly suggests Machado offer Trump her Nobel medal:
"The Nobel foundation can make another one just for you. But give it to Trump, otherwise you know what he's going to do." — John Bolton [09:45]
2. Broader Geopolitical Implications
China, Iran, Russia, and the Hemisphere
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The episode explores major power competition over Venezuelan oil and regional influence, especially China's vested interests:
"By most estimates ... Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world ... Of that oil it produces, China buys about 80% ... I don't think Beijing is going to sit idly by while a new government comes in ..."
— John Bolton [11:05–12:27] -
Uncertainties abound regarding how China, Russia, Cuba, and Iran will maneuver amid the government transition, with explicit warnings that they won’t withdraw quietly.
The Dunro Doctrine: Who Should Worry Most?
- When asked if Iran or Greenland should worry more, Bolton is blunt:
"I think Iran should be more worried given the protests ... This regime in Tehran is very weak and I think the levels of discontent have never been higher ..."
— John Bolton [12:38] - On hypothetical U.S. moves against Greenland:
"If we did, it would destroy the NATO alliance. But even this chatter is irresponsible ..."
— John Bolton [13:15]
3. Political Panel: Assessing Republican Strategy & U.S. Domestic Response
Working With Rodriguez & Legislative Priorities
- Rick Davis (Stone Court Capital) notes Rodriguez’s ties to Chevron, implying the Trump administration prioritizes oil over democratization, and expects only minimal domestic disruption:
"If the priority is oil ... she sort of fits the bill. President Trump did give the backhand to ... Maria Machado... Donald Trump's point of view is I want as little domestic turmoil as I can get in achieving those ends."
— Rick Davis [14:55]
Criticisms Within GOP & “Magical Thinking”
- Senator Rick Scott’s statement declares Rodriguez "not the president" and threatens consequences for unilateral action—exposing rifts between Senate Republicans and the White House [16:44].
- Jeannie Shanzano critiques the “magical thinking” underpinning bipartisan oil ambitions:
"If you are going to seriously democratize a country, you can't leave in place Maduro's right hand woman... this has nothing to do with democratization. And Donald Trump, unlike his Secretary of State, isn't pretending it does."
— Jeannie Shanzano [17:20]
4. U.S. Domestic Politics: January 6th, Midterms & Legislative Maneuvering
January 6th, Five Years Later — Political Memory and Whitewashing
- The hosts recount commemorations by both Democrats and pro-Trump groups, noting the apparent waning of national focus on the Capitol riot.
- Rick Davis observes Trump’s extraordinary political rehabilitation:
"You have to give Donald Trump an enormous amount of credit for what's got to be the most remarkable political rehabilitation in American history..."
— Rick Davis [38:43] - Jeannie Shanzano focuses on efforts to “whitewash” January 6th, but underscores the enduring evidentiary record:
“As much as the Republican Party can try to hide and obscure the reality ... we have the videos, we have the pictures, we have the testimony.”
— Jeannie Shanzano [39:54]
Congressional Agenda: Funding, the "Shower Act" & Obamacare Subsidies
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The House is focused on:
- Appropriations bills: Expected to move forward in three minibuses, with short-term Continuing Resolutions (CR) likely to avoid shutdown [42:34–43:53].
- The "Shower Act": A presidential priority to increase water pressure—hosts lampoon this as a case of legislative theater [24:22–25:52].
- Obamacare Subsidies extension via discharge petition: Unlikely to see Senate action in the election year climate.
"It's going to take bipartisan action. Heck, that's why they're doing it via a discharge petition in the House. ... No will and no interest in bipartisan action..."
— Jeannie Shanzano [44:24] -
Rick Davis bluntly says Trump is the legislative agenda’s true leader:
"Speaker Johnson doesn't make a move without Donald Trump approving it ... Trump controls the legislative agenda. He controls it in the Senate too ... it's a compliant Congress."
— Rick Davis [46:28]
5. Notable Moments & Quotes (with Timestamps)
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On the superficial regime change in Venezuela:
"We've removed Maduro, but the regime is still there. There's no regime change at this point. And I'm very concerned..."
— John Bolton [03:25] -
On U.S. leverage and oil sector optimism:
"I think people are dreaming. I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation."
— John Bolton [06:19] -
On Trump’s desire for recognition from Machado:
"Give [Trump] the [Nobel Peace Prize] medal. ... Otherwise you know what he's going to do."
— John Bolton [09:45] -
On China’s role in Venezuela:
"China buys about 80% of the production ... I don't think Beijing is going to sit idly by while a new government comes in..."
— John Bolton [12:00] -
Rick Davis on GOP priorities:
"This is an administration that has identified critical natural resources in Venezuela, not just oil as a national security impact, you know, priority."
— Rick Davis [14:55] -
Jeannie Shanzano on democratization “magical thinking”:
"If you are going to seriously democratize a country, you can't leave in place Maduro's right hand woman..."
— Jeannie Shanzano [17:20] -
On January 6th memory:
"As much as the Republican Party can try to hide and obscure... we have the videos, we have the pictures, we have the testimony."
— Jeannie Shanzano [39:54] -
On Speaker Johnson and Trump’s control:
"Speaker Johnson doesn't make a move without Donald Trump approving it ..."
— Rick Davis [46:28]
Timestamps for Major Segments
- [00:59] – Episode Begins; Biden Administration’s Venezuela Strategy
- [02:08] – Rodriguez Profile & Oil Sector Rejuvenation
- [03:25] – John Bolton on U.S. Motives & Regime Change
- [05:33] – Maduro’s Claims about Bolton, U.S. Meeting Dodged
- [06:19] – Bolton on U.S. Leverage and Lack of Planning
- [07:53] – Realism about U.S. Oil Investment in Venezuela
- [09:28] – Machado, Opposition Status & Nobel Peace Prize Anecdote
- [10:47] – Regional Implications: China, Russia, Cuba, Iran
- [12:38] – Dunro Doctrine, Iran vs. Greenland Security
- [14:55] – Rick Davis: Critique of Trump’s Oil Focus
- [17:20] – Jeannie Shanzano: “Magical Thinking” in US Strategy
- [24:22] – The "Shower Act” and Domestic Legislative Theater
- [34:43] – Reflecting on January 6th, Trump’s Political Rehabilitation
- [39:54] – Congressional Appropriations, Obamacare Subsidies, Legislative Expectations
Takeaways
- U.S. Venezuela policy is marked by skepticism and concern from foreign policy veterans, especially about the reality of regime change and the focus on oil over democracy.
- The domestic political environment is highly polarized, with Trump exerting powerful influence over Congress, especially on legislative agendas and priorities.
- Five years after January 6th, its commemoration is muted, and political actors have realigned, with Trump successfully regaining central influence in Republican circles.
- Major legislation this session is likely to be limited to avoidance of a shutdown and low-hanging measures like the Shower Act.
For those who missed the episode, this summary captures all the critical insight, memorable exchanges, and the sharper, occasionally sardonic, tone of the guest analysis.