Loading summary
Transcript119 lines
- [00:00]
Joe Matthew
Being a small business owner isn't just a career, it's a calling. Chase for Business knows how much heart and effort go into building something of your own. Manage all your business finances, from banking to payments to credit cards, all in one place with Chase's digital tools. Plus access online resources designed to help your business thrive. Learn more@chase.com business chase for business Make More of what's yours. The Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JP Morgan Chase Bank Naomi Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase &.
- [00:35]
Podcast Host/Announcer
Co. Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on.
- [00:59]
Joe Matthew
YouTube. January 6th as President Trump gathers the family at the Kennedy center to talk midterm strategies, exactly five years after the attack on the Capitol. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Tyler Kendall in Washington. Thanks for joining us here on this Tuesday, the President Tyler addressing the House Republican Conference about midterm strategies along with a number of other topics including where we go next in.
- [01:24]
Tyler Kendall
Venezuela. Right. The President appearing to balance the domestic with the foreign policy as polling has repeatedly told us that the economy of course is the top issue for Americans as Republicans are going into this year with with incredibly slim margins. Right now we're looking at Republicans with 218 to 213 votes for Democrats. That means that they right now have a two vote margin to pass anything during this.
- [01:46]
Joe Matthew
Year. Yeah, that's right. We're going to be talking a little bit more about that with our political panel and an important conversation straight ahead with John Bolton. Tyler, awfully important here as we try to figure out the motivations of this administration when it comes to Venezuela, but also the rest of the hemisphere and also what the fallout might be for China and Iran, both of which have been mentioned repeatedly since the strikes on Saturday and the capture of Nicolas.
- [02:09]
Tyler Kendall
Maduro. Right. We've been talking all week On Balance of Power about the geopolitical implications here, particularly as we have some pretty incredible reporting on the Bloomberg terminal this morning. People familiar telling us that the White House feels that Delsey Rodriguez is best equipped to bridge the gap between the government and the private sector as it really appears that the administration has its sights set on revitalizing the Venezuelan oil. Oil.
- [02:32]
Joe Matthew
Sector. Yeah, this is a pretty remarkable moment that we're in and Wall street of course has all of this in mind, and it really hasn' caused even a hiccup in trading. You saw the monster rally we enjoyed yesterday. Not a lot different today. The s and P500 up about a half percent or 33 points. The Nasdaq is up 100 points, a half percent. The Dow adding another 428 points today, almost 1%. We're getting the Santa Claus rally maybe a little bit late, but investors do not seem terribly concerned with geopolitics at the moment. John Bolton, I'm sure, has some ideas about this, though, and it's a great pleasure to have the former national security adviser with us from President Trump's first term, former US Ambassador to the United nations and founder of the foundation for American Security and Freedom. John Bolton, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. I know you have strong feelings about this and you've been around the block when it comes to Venezuela in the first term. Can I just start by asking you if you think the administration acted correctly last.
- [03:26]
John Bolton
Weekend? Well, I think it was the right thing to do to begin the process of getting the Maduro regime out of power and turning the government of Venezuela back over to the people. There's no doubt that in 2024, as in 2018, Maduro stole the election the opposition had won legitimately and really are the legitimate government of Venezuela. But I think we've removed Maduro, but the regime is still there. There's no regime change at this point. And I'm very concerned that the way the president attacked Maria Carina Machado, the leader of the opposition, said she didn't have respect in the country. Really, the opposition wasn't up to governing. And turning to the likes of Delsey Rodriguez and really Maduro's henchmen and henchwomen who are still there and believing they're going to be a transition, it puts us in a very difficult position. I'm worried that we've removed the face of the regime, but not the regime.
- [04:30]
Joe Matthew
Itself. Right. Yeah. Well, to that end, I know that you had concerns about Maduro in the president's first term, and we did a little bit of digging on this. Having had sat down with Maduro, my colleague Eric Schatzker in 2021 traveled to Caracas to talk to him about global politics. And Maduro said at the time he was in talks with the first Trump administration with you, John Bolton, around a meeting at the UN General assembly in 2018. Maduro specifically implicated you as having canceled that meeting. Listen to what he told us in 2021. I was about to personally meet him on September 2018 with President Don when I went to the UN General assembly in New York, we got a call from the White House. But we knew about John Bolton's pressure and that of other people around Donald Trump to prevent his attempt to meet.
- [05:22]
Nathan Dean
Me. If we had met, it had.
- [05:24]
Joe Matthew
Been a different story today. John Bolton, is that true and to what extent, if so, did that moment inform Donald Trump's views on Venezuela.
- [05:33]
John Bolton
Today? Well, I wish it were true. I wish I could stop meetings like that that easily. But he's making that up and, but it's a good story. So if he wants to believe it, let it. Let him tell that to the.
- [05:46]
Tyler Kendall
Court. Ambassador Bolton, if we're looking at what is going to happen next here, there's a lot of different messaging, a lot of different rhetoric. We hear from President Trump that the US Is going to run Venezuela. But if we look at what other advisers are saying, we keep hearing the idea that there's a lot of leverage points here by the US the embargo on oil, the military armada poised still potentially pointing at Venezuela. Do you think that the US has enough leverage to make change in Venezuela from afar through these kind of pressure.
- [06:19]
John Bolton
Points? Well, I'd like to know what the plan is, if that's what they think they're going to do. I'd be the happiest person around if the rest of the Maduro regime collapsed tomorrow. But when you hear from the administration, the usual anonymous sources, that they think they can work with Delsey Rodriguez to transition to something, I don't know what the something is and that the Venezuelan oil industry is just going to emerge from the ashes and suddenly be a big producer again. I think people are dreaming. I think this is a very difficult and dangerous situation. I think that the administration has acted in an ad hoc, day to day fashion that doesn't guarantee failure. But let's be clear. If the objective is to turn Venezuela into a society where its people actually govern it, and maybe that's not Trump's intention, but if that is, they're a long way from it. And anybody who thinks the Venezuelan oil industry is going to emerge from the ashes in a matter of weeks or months or even a couple of years, doesn't know how bad the situation.
- [07:26]
Tyler Kendall
Is. So then what is it going to take to help fuel that turnaround? Because we have reporting, as we mentioned at the top of the show, people familiar telling Bloomberg News that part of why this White House thinks that it can work with Delsey Rodriguez is because she could serve as that bridge between the government and the private sector, because it seems like there has to be such an emphasis on potential investment and rebuilding the infrastructure in order for Venezuela to get on sound economic.
- [07:53]
John Bolton
Footing. Well, I don't know what they, what they base that on. And I'd like to know what CEO of what major American oil company is just getting all of his top advisers together to get on a plane to go to Caracas and put billions and billions of capital expenditures into Venezuela. The political situation is unstable, by the way, the price of oil is still at 55 to $60 a barrel. I'm not, I'm not sure anybody thinks that more capital investment, more drilling, more oil on the market is going to benefit the oil companies at this point. I think there's a lot of hot air out there about what's going on, and that's dangerous because if your planning is not based on reality, when reality finally strikes, you have no plan B to back up.
- [08:40]
Joe Matthew
To. You mentioned Maria Karina Machado. She turned up on Fox News last evening of all places on the Hannity program, presumably to get the attention of Donald Trump. Here's what she said. I'm planning to go back to Venezuela as soon as possible. As I've always said, Shawn, every day I make a decision where I am more useful for a cost. That's why I stayed in hiding for over 16 months. And that's why I decided to go out, because I believed that at this moment, I mean, more useful to our costs being able to speak out.
- [09:14]
Tyler Kendall
From where I am right now. But I'm planning to go as.
- [09:16]
Joe Matthew
Soon as possible back home. She's talking about sharing her Nobel Peace Prize somehow with Donald Trump. Could she be a partner? Or has the administration turned away from her.
- [09:28]
John Bolton
Permanently? Well, I think they damaged her and the opposition very badly on Saturday. I think the opposition, just ordinary people inside Venezuela wonder what it means when the US doesn't trust its leadership. Now maybe she can work her way back into his good graces. My recommendation would be giving the Nobel Peace Prize medal that you get. The Nobel foundation can make another one just for you. But give it to Trump, otherwise you know what he's going to do. Theodore Roosevelt won the Nobel Peace Prize for mediating war between Russia and Japan during his term as president. And his Nobel Prize hangs on the wall of the Roosevelt Room in the White House. I've been worried recently. Trump's just going to take it off the wall so he can have it for himself. So Mrs. Machado gives him hers. Maybe that'll take care of.
- [10:16]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
That.
- [10:17]
Tyler Kendall
Wow. We also want to talk about potential ripple effects here. What could come next when it comes to other countries. And I'm actually particularly interested about the potential impacts for China. Of course, a hu of Venezuelan crude. But China's made a lot of significant inroads when it comes to Latin America signing on signatories to its belt and road infrastructure initiatives. Could this hurt Beijing's efforts to make those inroads in Latin America? How is this changing the calculus in terms of the US Beijing.
- [10:47]
John Bolton
Competition? Well, I think the most important American strategic interest in Venezuela is the increasing influence of malign foreign powers that don't have the best interest of the United States at heart. That certainly starts with Russia and Cuba. That was the main problem back in 2018 and 2019. But Iran and China are big players on the scene now. As you say, China has an enormous concern with Venezuela's oil reserves and its production. The Chinese look for oil wherever they can find it. They're an energy poor country whose economy depends on getting these foreign sources. And by most estimates, including the estimates of the US Government, Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world, more even than Saudi Arabia, and yet it produces an insignificant amount of oil. Of that oil it produces, China buys about 80% of the production according to the most recent statistics. So I don't think Beijing is going to sit idly by by while a new government comes in that, that may be more hospitable to American investment and possibly exclude China from, from the Venezuelan reserve. So what China is doing behind the scenes, we don't know. There were high level Chinese meeting with Maduro literally within a day or two of his being grabbed over the weekend. And what, what policies China is pursuing, what aid it may be giving to what remains of the Maduro government. What Russia and Cuba and Iran are doing, we don't know. But I don't think they're just going to withdraw quietly from the.
- [12:27]
Joe Matthew
Scene. Well, you know, as we consider what many are now referring to as the Dunro Doctrine, John Bolton, I wonder who you think should worry more right now, Greenland or.
- [12:39]
John Bolton
Iran. Well, it's, it's, I think, I think Iran should be more worried given the protests which continue to grow all across Iran, not just in Tehran. This regime in Tehran is very weak and I think the levels of discontent in the country have never been higher and the world would be a lot safer if the regime of the ayatollahs fell and you could get some kind of alternative, hopefully free government in Iran. I think what Trump says about Greenland and his interest in taking control of Greenland is very harmful to the NATO alliance. You know, Greenland, part of Denmark, is a NATO ally. Denmark's been an ally of the United States for years. And you have advisers to the president saying on national television that Denmark's claim to the island is illegitimate and nobody will oppose American force if we decide to use it. If we did, it would destroy the NATO alliance. But even this chatter is irresponsible, isn't taking into account the real threats we face in the United States. We have a legitimate security interest in Greenland. So does the entire NATO alliance. And if we just took this out of the spotlight and worked cooperatively together, I think we could ensure greater security, not just for Greenland, but for the entire.
- [14:04]
Tyler Kendall
Alliance. All right, John Bolton, former national security adviser in President Trump's first term, former U.S. ambassador to the United nations and founder of the foundation for American Security and Freedom. Ambassador Bolton, thanks so much for joining here us here on Bloomberg Television and Radio. And we want to extend the conversation by bringing in our political panel, Rick Davis, partner at Stone Court Capital and Bloomberg Politics contributor alongside Jeannie Shan Zaino, also Bloomberg Politics contributor and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School Ash Center. Rick, let's start with you and get your reaction to what we were hearing from John Bolton there and this idea of what the viable path is for the Venezuelan government going forward, as it appears that the Trump administration is set to work with Delsey Rodriguez. Rodriguez, but she is an extension of the prior regime under Nicolas.
- [14:55]
Rick Davis
Maduro. Yeah, it's always nice to hear the clear eyed analysis of John Bolton. His experience around the globe is second to none. So kudos to the interview. I thought it was fantastic. The reality is that the more reporting we get on little known Dolce Rodriguez is that she's been very friendly with the energy companies, the oil companies that have been doing business, specifically Chevron in the country. And so it's no surprise that if the priority is oil in the redevelopment of those fields, then she sort of fits the bill. President Trump did give the backhand to the democratically elected party headed by Maria Machado. And I'm glad to hear, based on the interview that you played a clip from that she's planning on coming back to Venezuela because I think the Venezuela people chose her and her party to lead the country. And I think the sooner she gets back and can rally that activity around maybe a future election, I think it can add to the future stability of the country. But look, this is, this is a administration that has identified critical natural resources in Venezuela, not just oil as a national security impact, you know, priority. And they've used the might of the US Military to secure those. And I think Donald Trump's point of view is I want as little domestic turmoil as I can get in, in achieving those ends. And so I think that's, that's, that's the scenario that we're, we're dealing with on the.
- [16:45]
Joe Matthew
Ground. Well, hang on, Jeannie, because I'm guessing that Maria Machado is reading this right now. A post on Twitter on X from Senator Rick Scott, of course, of Florida, quote, del. C. Rodriguez is not the president of Venezuela. She is simply another corrupt leader of the Maduro regime. Would do well to remember that any steps she takes outside of the US Wishes will result in the same fate as her former partner in crime, Maduro. Is this a senator speaking to his own constituents in Florida or representing a larger view in the Republican.
- [17:21]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Party? It clearly is a senator who has not checked his statement with the White House or the President because that is almost precisely in opposition to what the President has said. And you know, I think what John Bolton aptly described was a lot of magical thinking. And Ricky Scott's statement is just in line with that. If you are going to seriously democratize a country, you can't leave in place Maduro's right hand woman, her brother and the rest of the security apparatus. So that suggests this has nothing to do with democratization. And Donald Trump, unlike his Secretary of State, isn't pretending it does. He's saying this is all about oil. Well, there's the second part of the magical thinking, and John Bolton mentioned this. The fact is, is that it would take decades to do anything to convince oil companies to go into a country that is right now this politically insecure, with a senator from the United States saying we can't even agree on who's leading the country. To John Bolton's point, what executive of a major oil company is going to say now's the time to go and invest in that? Chevron's not investing. China is trying to pull out. Exxon never wanted to go back in after it was nationalized. It just took over Mobile. So this thing would take decades, if it's about oil, for the United States to reap those benefits. If the President is planning on doing what he also said, which is investing millions and billions of US Taxpayer money into this project to pay oil companies and oil executives to do this, that's going to create enormous pushback even amongst Republicans who may be fine with going in against the law to this country, but not taking their hard earned tax dollars to pay off oil executives to go in there and extract oil from another country. So this thing is full of magical thinking it's brought. The operation may have been a success, but the day two questions loom large and it will disintegrate support in the long.
- [19:28]
Tyler Kendall
Term. Well, let's talk about the domestic political ramifications, Rick, because to Joe's point and the post from Rick Scott, it feels like Republicans are threading the needle here between being in favor of Nicolas Maduro no longer being in power, but treading carefully when it comes to what they want to see happen next with this transition to democracy. We heard House Speaker Mike Johnson saying yesterday that he hopes that that happens quickly if we look ahead. We're now in campaign season. President Trump rallying support among House Republicans earlier today. Is foreign policy going to be a winning issue as we go into the midterms? How should Republicans be thinking about.
- [20:07]
Rick Davis
This? Well, first of all, I think it should be said that Republicans are favorable toward democracies in Venezuela, in the United States and anywhere else. I don't think that's a big issue. I think what you see when with Senator Scott is a very determined senator from a state with a lot of Venezuelan expatriates living there, many of whom vote in the state. And he's doing the right thing for his constituencies. And it doesn't matter what the White House does, you politics always starts at home for these guys. That being said to your second question, which is how does all this play in the midterms? I don't think it really does. You'd have to dig pretty deep to find a winning foreign policy issue that helps the party in power. You know, in an election, voters tend to vote their pocketbook. We spent a lot of time on this program talking about affordability and health care. It's much more likely that that drives people to the polls in November midterms than anything that happens momentarily in a faraway country like Venezuela where most normal voters don't see a nexus between what's happening there in their lives. And frankly, this administration really isn't making a nexus to that. They really aren't selling the idea that somehow by being able to control the flow of oil out of Venezuela that somehow your gas prices are you're going to go down or somehow going to make your life better. So if the administration doesn't invest in that, it's highly unlikely anybody else will. And that means it probably won't have much of an impact in the midterm.
- [21:49]
Joe Matthew
Elections. Great conversation with our great panel, Rick Davis and Jeanne Shann Zaino, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after.
- [21:58]
Ad/Promo Voice
This. These days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures.
- [22:32]
Podcast Host/Announcer
AI. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.
- [22:51]
Joe Matthew
11:30. So lawmakers are back in town. Everyone's getting back to reality this week, just like you are and the president gathered House Republicans today over at the Kennedy Center. The Kennedy center still called that, even though they changed the letters on the side of the building. I mention it because there was actually a piece of legislation that moved last evening. It's going to go before rules today. Three appropriations bills, one of them for the Interior. It does not include any change of the name for the Kennedy Center. As a matter of fact, there were a couple of efforts here to rename the Kennedy Center Trump Kennedy center and also to rename the Opera House after the first lady, Melania Trump. Neither made it into the final bill. So who's in charge around here anyway? We turn to the shower in the Rules Committee meeting that will take place later on this evening. Have you heard about the Shower Act? You know how the president talks about this a lot when he was on the stump? He talks about the washing machines, the water pressure, the toilet. He says you have to keep flushing, you keep pressing the button and the I don't know how many appliances he's using on a regular basis, but he does shower. And when it comes to water pressure, this is a personal issue for the president, as he made clear back in April when he signed an executive order making it possible for people to increase the water pressure in their bathroom, removing efficiency standards to give us all beautiful hair. Listen, you take a shower or wash your hands, whatever you do, including.
- [24:23]
John Bolton
Dishwashers, when no water comes.
- [24:24]
Joe Matthew
Out. But you wash your hands. And in my case, I Like.
- [24:28]
Rick Davis
To take a nice shower to take.
- [24:30]
Joe Matthew
Care of my beautiful hair. Stand under the shower for 15 minutes, it gets wet, comes out, drip, drip.
- [24:38]
Nathan Dean
Drip. This is.
- [24:39]
Joe Matthew
Ridiculous. The drip, drip, drip will go before the Rules Committee this evening. The Shower Act. See, this is how it works. The President sets the agenda, the Republican conference writes the bill, and it's going to move this evening through the rules Committee. The Shower Act. It stands for saving homeowners from overregulation with exceptional rinsing. It will redefine a shower head to follow the President's eo. This is where we start our conversation with Nathan Dean, the senior US Policy analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. Will humor me for at least a moment on this. Do you ever have a bad hair day because of the water.
- [25:21]
Nathan Dean
Pressure? Yeah, you know, it's like, you know, look, I'm not exactly sure about the water pressure, but you know, we saw this bill come.
- [25:28]
Joe Matthew
Out.
- [25:28]
Nathan Dean
Yeah. And the first thing I thought of is, is there investing angle here because we have to like, see, is.
- [25:32]
Joe Matthew
There a stock, is there like a new class of shower head that's. That we'll all be.
- [25:35]
Nathan Dean
Buying? You know, I couldn't go there, but I would say is that even if this bill doesn't pass, I have to see this bill trying to get into a CR or something like that because there's some lobbyist around this town right now who's going, yes, I need this.
- [25:46]
Joe Matthew
Bill. Right.
- [25:46]
Nathan Dean
Yeah. And you know, so I mean, if we get to a CR with the government shut down, then maybe this bill.
- [25:50]
Joe Matthew
Goes. It might be exceptional rinsing that keeps the government.
- [25:53]
Nathan Dean
Open.
- [25:53]
Joe Matthew
Yeah. You ever see the hair on producer James? This guy needs some more water.
- [25:56]
Nathan Dean
Pressure. You know, it's, it's a thing. I think my son after football sometimes would prefer if he had a pressure washer. That's how.
- [26:02]
Joe Matthew
Much. That's right. I get it. All right, so America's dad is back with us and we're going to talk about some important things here beyond the Shower Act. Yes. America's hair is what we're talking about today. And I think that's a breaking story at any time. I don't know that the President brought this up at the Kennedy center earlier today, but he did talk about the agenda and he's trying to get some momentum here. Nathan Dean, for the midterms and a period of time that's very delicate for lawmakers because we've already gone over the so called cliff, the Obamacare cliff. Premiums are rising and we have a funding deadline at the end of the Month at a couple strikes in Venezuela, everybody's upset about war powers or they're defending the president on war powers. And there's a worry that we slide into a shutdown again because of arguments over, in this case, defense appropriations. Where's your head on.
- [26:50]
Nathan Dean
This? You know, so we're at still a 30% of a shutdown chance at the end day of the this.
- [26:55]
Joe Matthew
Month. That's not.
- [26:55]
Nathan Dean
Bad. And you know, it's one of those things where if over the weekend I think Senator Schumer was doing some of the Sunday shows and he effectively ruled out a shutdown. From the Democratic perspective, look, the Democrats want to talk about affordability and the American populace, we've seen from polling about the response to Venezuela this past weekend, American populace is sort of still thinking about affordability as we go into the midterms. So, you know, from the Democratic perspective, I really don't think you're going to see much in the ways of a shutdown. You know, from the Republican perspective, yes, you are going to see this push for potentially a little bit additional funding in terms of defense. But we had a call amongst our defense analysts and we said is this going to be additional funding where our stocks and the companies that we cover are going to get excited about? Are we talking about incremental? And the, the consensus from that call was this is incremental. So this is something where I don't think it's going to be very controversial. Yes. You know, it could be some hiccups, but if you have a hiccup, that means you get a continuing resolution and a continuing resolution that puts us to March probably gives Congress more time to actually get their ducks in a row to figure out how they're going to get this fiscal spending over the.
- [27:56]
Joe Matthew
Line. So that's, that's your base case though, right? We have a short cr, not some sort of many months long CR and actual minibuses are passed and signed into law. That that's what this will look.
- [28:09]
Nathan Dean
Like. Yeah, I mean, I think that, I don't think Congress can get there by the end of this month. I mean, look, the fact that the language was not included about the Kennedy.
- [28:16]
Joe Matthew
Center.
- [28:17]
Nathan Dean
Yeah. In there, you know, you could take it as saying, hey, let's get some of these poison pills out of here to try and get this thing moving.
- [28:23]
Joe Matthew
Forward.
- [28:23]
Nathan Dean
Yeah. You know, I'm just speculating that. But you know, if Congress can't figure it out, they do what they.
- [28:28]
Joe Matthew
Do.
- [28:28]
Nathan Dean
Great. They kick the can they get it to February or March, they give them a Little bit more time because we've talked about this as we were talking about this in December. Congress doesn't actually have that much of a to do list in 2026. Yes, the shower act is.
- [28:41]
Joe Matthew
Important. Thank.
- [28:42]
Nathan Dean
You. We will talk about a crypto market structure.
- [28:44]
Joe Matthew
Bill. That's.
- [28:44]
Nathan Dean
Right. Probably in the economic few weeks about whether that can pass or not. But Congress really doesn't have all that much to do. We have very low odds on a reconciliation bill passing this year. And so it gives them time. And there's a lot of focus is going to be on appropriations. I don't think Congress really has, you know, that much else they really need to do at this point. So kicking the can to March isn't the worst case scenario for.
- [29:04]
Joe Matthew
Them. Really interesting. Beyond the actual government funding that needs to be managed somehow this month we've got an important vote. Looks like it's going to be Wednesday into Thursday this week on extending Obamacare subsidies. This is the discharge petition we talked a lot about before the new year. You had a couple of legislative days. It's forced to the floor this week. But there's no discharge petition in the Senate. Nope. And while there's no answer or echo for this bill in the upper chamber, is there even if it passes overwhelmingly, does John Thune do anything about.
- [29:37]
Nathan Dean
It? So my colleague Dwayne Wright has a note out in the terminal and essentially says, look, you know, skeptical, long odds that any solution is found. But there are two scenarios that could come out of this. One is this bill passes the House and then it goes to the Senate and it serves as a foundation for additional debate. Senator Marino was even saying last night that, you know, there were, there were talks. I don't want to say they were fruitful talks, but there were still talks. So maybe this continues those talks. But the more likely scenario, according to Dwayne, is that the bill comes out of the House, goes to the Senate and the Senate just says thanks, but no thanks. We're just going to let the clock run line run out on this because even though there are some members of the Republican Party that want to see these extensions, you know, continue, the bulk of the House Republican Party is against this. And I think the, you know, a lot of lawmakers around up on Capitol Hill at the moment would just be comfortable if these subsidies expire and we move on to other debates. So again, Dwayne has pretty skeptical views towards.
- [30:30]
Joe Matthew
This. Well, I guess that hasn't changed a lot then. Let me ask you about the latest on cannabis. Do you let your Kids watch this. This is grown up talk.
- [30:39]
Nathan Dean
Right? They don't want to.
- [30:40]
Joe Matthew
Watch. They wouldn't do this anyway. They wouldn't get this far into the.
- [30:42]
Nathan Dean
Interview. Now on YouTube, they want to watch other.
- [30:44]
Joe Matthew
Things. Fine, that's it. We'll keep it that way. The DEA says rescheduling marijuana. The appeal process remains pending despite the president CEO that we've talked about a lot. And there's now this new joint status report illuminating allegations of agency bias, improper communications with anti rescheduling parties. Is this thing on.
- [31:09]
Rick Davis
Ice? For.
- [31:10]
Joe Matthew
Now. What's.
- [31:10]
Nathan Dean
Happening? So I think there's a disconnect between the marijuana investors who think that when President Trump signed that executive order, rescheduling happened via magic wand and the Washington realities of that. And there's a lot of folks out there because there's a lot of retail sentiment in these hot sauce stocks that we've talked about, talked about here, you know, but the reality is, is that when it comes to Washington, as you know all too well, it doesn't move fast. So even if an executive order comes out, look, President Trump's shower executive order came out months.
- [31:36]
Joe Matthew
Ago.
- [31:36]
Nathan Dean
Yeah. And it took it to this point to actually get a house vote. Now, when it comes to the DEA in particular, that I think here, you know, the Terrence called, the administrator of the dea, he gets the executive order and in this positive scenario, meaning that reschedule happens quickly, he looks at it and says, look, what is the bare minimum that we have to do to get this to reschedulization without a way of having any court come back and say you went too fast or anything like that? I think that ends with reschedulization in the first half of this year. So call it, wow, maybe April 20th, who knows? But you know, what I'll say is that if you're looking at this through the positive lens, it's happening. Otherwise you're looking at this through the slower lens and you're going to have this stalled process, this at the end. But at the end of the day, presidents don't sign executive orders if they don't want them to have them done. So I actually think President Trump is waiting for that time where this is actually going to be very beneficial. Pretends to the 2026 midterms. But I do think reschedulization is on the.
- [32:32]
Joe Matthew
Cards. Really interesting. Are you still getting calls about this? Like, what's the mindset of the cannabis investor here? Is their patience? Eat an edible check back in a couple of months, or is there a paranoia that this is all about fall.
- [32:44]
Nathan Dean
Apart. The main question that we get is, is this actually news or is this just fluff? And that is the number one question is every single time you see President Trump go through one of these actions, they want to know, is it the playbook where President Trump makes a positive statement, These hot sauce stocks go up 15, 20%, then nothing gets done. Over the next couple of weeks, msos is back down, you know, off of burned again, you know, so it's one of those things, where is this actually new? And what we go back to do is we say, look, reschedulization changes the tax code for a lot of these mom and pop marijuana companies. The effective tax rate goes from about 40% to about 10%. You know, it doesn't do all that much for the industry. Legalization is still not there and banking is still not there. So that small tax relief is what you're going to get. You're not getting anything.
- [33:29]
Joe Matthew
Else. Got it. Amazing. What do you kids watch on.
- [33:32]
Nathan Dean
YouTube? The NFL.
- [33:34]
Joe Matthew
Stuff.
- [33:34]
Nathan Dean
Really? Sports and Tick.
- [33:36]
Joe Matthew
Tock. They watch other. Other people play video games. I haven't figured that out. They watch other people playing.
- [33:41]
Nathan Dean
Games. Roblox.
- [33:42]
Joe Matthew
Roblox. As opposed to playing the games. Yep. My best year. Family. That's Nathan Deep on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after.
- [33:51]
Ad/Promo Voice
This. These days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures.
- [34:25]
Podcast Host/Announcer
AI. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple Copy Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg.
- [34:44]
Joe Matthew
11:30. Thanks for being with us here on the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio. Find us on YouTube where we're always streaming live throughout the day, all of our programs from Washington to New York City on what is January 6th. Yes, five years later. Isn't that something interesting, watching the way the different parties are handling like call it an anniversary. This moment in time Today started around 10am House Democrats were first. They held what they're calling a presentation, a mock hearing essentially in the visitor center with witnesses that they've called, including former Capitol police officers, former lawmakers, former DOJ prosecutors who worked January 6th cases a little bit after that. In fact, it was only about an hour ago that the now pardoned J6 protesters were gathering as well, not at the Capitol, but at the Ellipse. Yeah, this is happening today in Washington. I don't feel like it's getting a heck of a lot of coverage. They're going to walk the old route up to the Capitol after. And what they are framing as a memorial for Ashley Babbitt in that crowd, Enrique Tarrio, the former chief of the Proud Boys who writes on X, this will be a patriotic and peaceful march. See you there. Remembering he had been sentenced to prison until 2045 before he was pardoned by the president. A lot of Americans have moved on since January 6th. We've talked about this with our panel, Rick and Jeannie, who are going to be with us in just a moment. Certainly a lot of politicians have. We don't hear a lot of talk about it. We remember and on that day, a remarkable moment when we saw the then Vice President Mike Pence, they were calling for his head outside the Capitol. Actually get back inside the chamber and speak from the rostrum. Here he is on.
- [36:41]
John Bolton
Gnomes. To those who wreaked havoc in.
- [36:43]
Rick Davis
Our Capitol today, you did not.
- [36:46]
John Bolton
Win. Violence never.
- [36:50]
Rick Davis
Wins. Freedom.
- [36:52]
John Bolton
Wins. And this is still the People's.
- [36:55]
Joe Matthew
House. And you know what is left of his political career. Fast forward five years and you remember how Donald Trump was Persona non grata. Then, of course, the former speaker of the house, Kevin McCarthy traveled to Mar A Lago, did the thumbs up photograph and a four year rehabilitation cycle began, culminating with the election itself. But also in a weird way, this morning on this anniversary, as the president shared space with the entire House Republican Conference, they got together at the Kennedy center, some would say renamed, although it hasn't been codified by the people in that room. Congress and the president spoke to them earlier today. Listen, well, you're all brilliant people. Most of you are in this business longer than me. That makes me smarter than you because look where I am, right? No, it doesn't. But I wish you could explain to me what the hell's going on with the mind of the public because we have a, we have the right policy. They.
- [38:01]
Nathan Dean
Don'T. They have horrible.
- [38:02]
Joe Matthew
Policy. They do stick together. They're violent, they're vicious. You know, they're vicious people emerging to Ask what the hell is going on with the mind of the public. So we start with our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shanzano and Rick Davis are with us. Jeannie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. Rick is Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capitol. Rick, you have to give Donald Trump an enormous amount of credit for what's got to be the most remarkable political rehabilitation in American history. What went through your mind as you saw him ask that question before Republican lawmakers this.
- [38:43]
Rick Davis
Morning? Yeah, it was kind of a flashback. As part of the 1996 Bob Dole campaign for president, he gave a speech that after all this frustration with fighting against Bill Clinton, who he saw as a flawed individual and a flawed president, he would shout into the microphone, where's the outrage? And that was pretty humbling as a young operative. What do we do now? And I'd say the same thing for the president. It's not exactly the message you want to give. You know, hey, American public, where's your outrage? I mean, you're mad at me. What are you talking about? I'm doing everything great. Not a good way to connect with the electorate. And this is the difference between, you know, Donald Trump will never be on a ballot again and everybody in that room, almost all of whom are on a ballot this next, this year, and they have a different priority. And he sounded like a guy who really doesn't care about elections.
- [39:41]
Joe Matthew
Today. Boy, that's a problem if you're running for election. Jeannie, what went through your mind five years later here as the president gathered the rank and file out of all places, the Kennedy.
- [39:55]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Center. Yeah. You know, I think so much of this has to do with history. Donald Trump, as you pointed to, has, for the short term, successfully whitewashed the history of what happened on that day. Unfortunately for Donald Trump, we have videos and we have pictures. And as much as the Republican Party can try to hide and obscure the reality of what happened on that day, we have the videos, we have the pictures, we have the testimony. I mean, just a few days ago on New Year's Eve, Republicans, while everybody else was celebrating, released testimony by Jack Smith from December 17th in which he said that January six does not happen and unless Donald Trump ran it, that he was the most culpable and responsible person for what happened. When five people died, law officers were attacked, and some were killed. 140 people injured, the US Capitol stormed. Reporters and members of Congress hovering in there, some with gas masks on, 1500 people arrested. All of that is a reality. So this is very much about history, both his attempts to whitewash it and supported as he has been by loyal supporters and Republicans, but also long term, in which people like Mike Pence will be applauded and people like Lynn Cheney who stood their ground and said against their own futures in politics that enough is enough. They know the truth and we can't not countenance what has happened here. So to me, it says an awful lot about history and it needs to be remembered and it can be because we have the.
- [41:39]
Joe Matthew
Evidence. Yeah, you're right. It was the end of Liz Cheney's career in many ways when she signed onto that January 6th committee. But look, we've got a room full of lawmakers who are back in town to do some work here, Rick, and I'm wondering what you think they can get done. The president is talking about midterm strategy. He's talking about various healthcare plans. There's going to be a forced vote by discharge petition on Obamacare subsidies this week, but in the background. And this stuff doesn't get a lot of talk because it's the sausage being made. And it's not, I guess, in this place, in this case, terribly appealing. But they're actually passing spending bills right now. We talked about this with Nathan Dean a short time ago. Three bill funding package on track for passage over the next few weeks. And the Rules Committee is actually going to be busy with some of this stuff later on. Rick, is this the story that we should be telling now? Is something magical about to happen and that we pass a.
- [42:35]
Rick Davis
Budget? Well, I wouldn't say it's magical. It's only been delayed by, you know, five months now. So it's obviously taken a long time to get this far. And as Tom Cole, the chairman of the Appropriations Committee has said that, you know, he's looking at these nine appropriations bills being done in three packages of three departments and we'll see the first one with action this week. And this is what they're supposed to be doing. There's agreement on top line numbers with the Senate and House, but not what's inside of each of these packages. And even the way that they're structured is going to need some massaging. But we, we should hope that Congress will do their job and pass these appropriations bills and get on with funding the government, as Nathan indicated, unlikely that that's going to happen by the end of this month. I think. Think what is it, just 15 legislative days left to go to do this. And, and so they may need more time. But I don't think there's going to be any heartburn about a short CR in order to get these appropriations packages through. Finally, after that, I think you're going to find there's not a lot of appetite in election year, never is for legislative action. So not much is going to happen for the balance of the.
- [43:54]
Joe Matthew
Year. Really interesting, Jeannie. Let's say they figure this out and whether it involves a short term CR or not, we avoid a shutdown. There's going to be a vote in a couple of days here. Looks like Thursday will be the final floor action on the discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies. We talked about this a lot going into the holidays, ticked down the legislative days, and so here we are. It's going to be forced to the floor, but there's no such bill in the Senate. If this passes convincingly, can it create some new momentum? Or have you already written this off as a.
- [44:25]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Failure? Yeah, I agree with Rick on this. I don't think we see much beyond a government funding bill. You know, that kind of operation that you would address what has been this subsidy issue that's been looming over Congress for so long. It's going to take bipartisan action. Heck, that's why they're doing it via a discharge petition in the.
- [44:49]
John Bolton
House.
- [44:50]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
House. And yet most of Congress has shown no will and no interest in bipartisan action. And certainly the person leading Congress, Donald Trump, has shown little interest in that. So I don't see this going anywhere in the House or in the Senate. I think that it's like so much else, it's going to grind to a halt because of the election year. It's going to grind to a halt because unless Donald Trump, Trump commands the Republican leaders in Congress to act, they're not going to act. They see their futures tied up not to what's happening in November, interestingly enough, as much as to what Donald Trump tweets and truths. You would think that looking at polls on affordability in the economy, they would be trying to address issues like the cost of health care, but that's not what we're seeing, at least not yet, when they are more worried, worried about Donald Trump and Elon Musk primarying them than they are in what voters may say in these very gerrymandered districts where they have some safety. And so I think we're going to see everything in Congress grind to a halt until after the.
- [46:01]
Joe Matthew
Election. Interesting. I think the shower act might pass, though, guys. You saw they're marking that up in rules this evening. This is another one we talked about with Nathan saving homeowners from overregulation with exceptional rinsing. This is the one that redefines the showerhead so you can finally get your water pressure back. I don't know what everyone's complaining about here. The House gets stuff done. Rick, does this all reinforce the idea of Donald Trump as the real.
- [46:29]
Rick Davis
Speaker? Yeah, to some degree. I don't think there's been a whole lot of mystery to the fact that Speaker Johnson doesn't make a move without Donald Trump approving it. And I think, as Jeannie mentioned, Trump isn't really engaged on this health care issue. And so why should Speaker Johnson break a sweat doing anything for it? He's not going to get credit for it and probably just get thrown under the bus, you know, as would be expected from Trump. So, yeah, I mean, Trump controls the legislative agenda. He controls it in the Senate too. I don't think we get enough attention to the fact that Thune will not oppose anything Donald Trump wants to be done. It's been a rare moment of political courage for any member with a GOP stamp on them to speak out against the Donald Trump agenda. So it's, it's a, it's a compliant Congress. And in that regard, with the passing of member today and Marjorie Taylor Greene's exit, the fact that, you know, Johnson has a slim margin of basically one now to enact legislation reinforces the point I made earlier, which is very little is actually going to get done along party lines.
- [47:41]
Joe Matthew
Even. I hear you, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime.
- [48:02]
Ad/Promo Voice
Eastern@Bloomberg.Com these days, it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity right by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, Secure any agent. Okta secures.
- [48:34]
Joe Matthew
AI. This podcast is brought to you.
- [48:36]
Ad/Promo Voice
By Wise the Smarter way to manage your money.
- [48:38]
Joe Matthew
Internationally. If you're getting a headache from.
- [48:41]
Ad/Promo Voice
Juggling different currencies and different bank accounts in different countries, there's a better way to receive money in the currency you need without the slow transfer times or hidden fees. Meet Wise the savvy way to handle your money internationally. Hold balances in up to 40 currencies with the mid market exchange rate on every conversion. Whether you're receiving payments from tenants abroad, earning as a digital nomad, or converting dividends from your international investments, the Wise Multi Currency account is for.
- [49:06]
Joe Matthew
You. Be Smart, Get Wise Download the.
- [49:09]
Ad/Promo Voice
Wise app today or visit wise.com Terms and Conditions.