Balance of Power – Episode Summary

Episode Title: Senate Risks Partial Shutdown, DHS Funding Talks Stall
Date: January 28, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu & Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg Washington Correspondents)
Panelists & Correspondents: Tyler Kendall, Rick Davis, Jeannie Shanzano, Nick Wadhams, Michael Regan

Overview

This episode centers on the looming risk of a partial US government shutdown as negotiations over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding remain deadlocked in the Senate. Against a tense political backdrop—marked by fatal ICE shootings in Minneapolis, bipartisan mistrust, public backlash against immigration enforcement tactics, and rising affordability concerns nationally—the hosts and guests dissect the political and social fallout, ongoing developments in Iran, and domestic policy debates dominating Washington and New York.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Looming Government Shutdown & DHS Funding Deadlock

• Backdrop:
  President Trump has been promoting his "affordability tour," but the immediate tension in DC is the risk of a partial government shutdown, specifically over DHS funding. This follows two fatal ICE shootings in Minneapolis, sparking outrage and renewed focus on immigration enforcement tactics.
  (01:34-02:41)

• Senate Negotiations (Tyler Kendall):

  • Senators are negotiating but aren’t closer to a deal as the Friday shutdown deadline nears. Republicans are open to executive (non-legislative) actions to curb ICE, while Democrats demand statutory (legislative) reforms—such as mandatory body cameras and stricter warrant requirements for ICE.
  • “If there’s going to be a legislative solution, it’s going to take a little bit of work and it’s going to get complicated.” — Tyler Kendall (03:20)
  • Logistical Snags: Even if partial funding is agreed upon, the House is out until Feb 3, making quick legislative fixes unlikely.
    (02:41-04:29)

• Political Fallout and Impeachment Talk:
  Republicans Thom Tillis and Lisa Murkowski call for DHS Secretary Kristi Noem to step down, facing a public rebuke from Trump. An impeachment resolution has 160 Democratic House signatures, but reaching the required bipartisan majority is unlikely for now; focus may shift to investigations.
  (04:29-06:22)

Notable Quotes

• “We don’t shoot people dead on the streets of our cities, American citizens.” — Jeannie Shanzano (11:12)
• “This coalition in support of the President’s agenda with deportations is fraying at the edges.” — Rick Davis (16:44)

2. Public Attitudes and Polling on ICE & Immigration

• Poll Insights:
  Following the ICE shootings, a Searchlight Institute poll showed strong bipartisan opposition to ICE’s tactics:

  • 58% support reining in ICE
  • 73% oppose warrantless home entry
  • 79% dislike lack of proper uniforms
  • 70% object to detaining US citizens
    (11:30-12:15)

• Impact on Republicans:
  Immigration enforcement, previously a popular GOP talking point, is now politically perilous. The party’s coalition—especially young men and minorities—shows significant disapproval, reducing the effectiveness of traditional campaigning on strict immigration.
  (12:15-13:43)

Notable Quotes

• “Talking about Immigration now is going to lose you votes if you’re a Republican, not get you votes.” — Rick Davis (13:20)
• “We need serious immigration reform, we need serious border security, we don’t need rhetoric.” — Jeannie Shanzano (15:20)

3. Partisan Messaging Challenges

• Democrats Navigate Reform vs. Abolishing ICE:
  The term “abolish ICE” is radioactive for most Democrats, reminiscent of “defund the police.” Polls show stronger support for reform (30%) than abolition (19%). Messaging focuses on operational and policy reform, not agency elimination.
  (13:43-14:24)

Memorable Moment

• “The idea that you would train ICE agents for 47 days because Donald Trump is the 47th president of the United States sounds like it’s from an SNL skit.” — Jeannie Shanzano (15:20)

4. Foreign Affairs: Rising US-Iran Tensions

(18:53-24:48)

• President Trump on Truth Social:
  Announces a “massive armada” headed to Iran, bigger than that sent to Venezuela, signaling readiness for confrontation if Iran doesn’t negotiate a nuclear deal.
• Analysis by Nick Wadhams:
  • Uncertainty about Trump’s real aims—does he want regime change or just a nuclear deal?
  • Iran’s uranium stockpile and nuclear capability remain hotly disputed—recent US strikes haven't fully neutralized the program, per international inspectors.
  • Real possibility of an oil blockade or further military escalation.

Notable Quotes

• “We learn from this tweet...there is a lot of credence we should be giving to these reports and indications we have that there’s a lot of diplomacy going on in the region.” — Nick Wadhams (21:11)
• “Take the President’s argument that [Iran’s] nuclear program had been completely obliterated with a grain of salt.” — Nick Wadhams (22:50)

5. Markets & Earnings Updates

(24:48-29:45)

• Stock Market Commentary:
  • Milestone: S&P 7000 crossed, but markets pulled back amid geopolitical risks and anticipation of Fed decisions/earnings reports.
  • “Markets will be looking to see if companies like Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet, and Amazon continue aggressive AI investment or scale back.” — Michael Regan (27:25)
  • Tech’s capital expenditures are under scrutiny— investors now demand proof of return on huge AI infrastructure bets.

6. Affordability Issues and Local Fiscal Policy: The “Burrito Barometer” & NY Politics

(31:14-43:47)

• Rising Food Prices:

  • The “burrito barometer”: Axios reports the cost of an average California burrito is up 20% year-over-year, with salsa and tortillas driving increases.

• NYC Politics – New Mayor Mamdani’s Tax Promises:

  • Mayor Zoran Mamdani (self-described democratic socialist) calls for higher taxes on the wealthy to address a record $12 billion city deficit and expand programs (e.g., free buses).
  • Showdown with NY Governor Kathy Hochul, who is resisting tax hikes as she eyes reelection.

Panel Analysis

• Jeannie Shanzano:
  “He is really doubling down...but of course he needs Albany to go ahead with that. So it’s potentially going to get a lot more difficult in the next month as he releases his budget and begins negotiations.” (36:45)
• Rick Davis:
  “The only thing less popular than telling children on a snow day they have to go to school virtually, is telling people you need to make cutbacks because the city can’t afford things.” (41:10)
• Concerns expressed about a potential exodus of wealthy New Yorkers if taxes are hiked further, referencing experiences in California.
• Rick Davis:
  “Mayor Mandani is going to do a little straight talk and that’s a good thing, but he’s not going to make any friends upstate.” (40:21)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• [01:34] Affordability in focus, shutdown risk contextualized
• [02:41] Status of Senate negotiations on DHS funding (Tyler Kendall)
• [04:29] Discord in GOP ranks, calls for Kristi Noem to resign
• [06:22] House impeachment resolution, investigations, March 3 Senate hearing
• [11:30] New polling on public attitudes toward ICE
• [18:53] US-Iran: Trump’s social media threat, strategic analysis
• [24:48] Market reaction to geopolitics and earnings preview
• [31:14] “Burrito barometer” and the affordability debate
• [34:00] Mayor Mamdani’s fiscal plan and panel reaction
• [43:01] Risk of elite exodus from NYC with new tax proposals

Notable Quotes (with Speaker & Timestamp)

• “If there’s going to be a legislative solution, it’s going to take a little bit of work and it’s going to get complicated.”
  — Tyler Kendall (03:20)

• “We don’t shoot people dead on the streets of our cities, American citizens.”
  — Jeannie Shanzano (11:12)

• “Talking about Immigration now is going to lose you votes if you’re a Republican, not get you votes.”
  — Rick Davis (13:20)

• “The idea that you would train ICE agents for 47 days because Donald Trump is the 47th president of the United States sounds like it’s from an SNL skit.”
  — Jeannie Shanzano (15:20)

• “There is a lot of credence we should be giving to these reports and indications we have that there’s a lot of diplomacy going on in the region.”
  — Nick Wadhams (21:11)

• “Take the President’s argument that [Iran’s] nuclear program had been completely obliterated with a grain of salt.”
  — Nick Wadhams (22:50)

• “The only thing less popular than telling children on a snow day they have to go to school virtually, is telling people you need to make cutbacks because the city can’t afford things.”
  — Rick Davis (41:10)

Tone and Language

Throughout, the conversation combines Bloomberg’s analytical, policy-driven style with moments of candid, even biting, commentary—especially as panelists assess the fallout from both DC gridlock and New York's fraught fiscal path. The gravity of government paralysis, the urgency of public outcry, and the practical concerns facing policymakers are foregrounded, balancing technical analysis (“statutory changes,” “capital expenditures”) with everyday realities (“burrito barometer,” housing costs, and public messaging).

For Listeners New to the Episode

This episode is essential for understanding the complex interplay between political tactics, public opinion, and policy during a high-stakes funding showdown in Washington—while also highlighting local fiscal challenges and global security risks that color the national debate.

Key takeaways:

• The Senate is gridlocked over DHS funding, risking a partial government shutdown.
• Both parties face internal dissent and public pressure, especially after high-profile ICE shootings.
• Polls show bipartisan demand for stricter oversight of ICE, complicating GOP messaging on immigration.
• US-Iran tensions are ratcheting up, with mixed signals from the White House on ultimate objectives.
• New York’s new mayor is launching a bold tax-the-rich campaign amid affordability crises, setting up a political battle with the governor and potential economic risks.