Shutdown Deal Backed by White House

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power – "Shutdown Deal Backed by White House"

Date: November 10, 2025
Host: Bloomberg (Tyler Kendall, Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz)
Notable Guests: Megan Scully, Congressman Greg Stanton (D-AZ), Rick Davis, Jeannie Shan Zaino, Bob McNally, Doug Farrar

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Main Theme

The episode dives into the breaking developments around a tentative agreement to reopen the US federal government after the longest shutdown on record. It explores the dynamics in Congress, especially the Senate and House, the politics of the deal, the White House’s position, and the high-stakes policy fights—particularly health care and federal worker firings. The conversation spans the intersection of politics, economic sentiment, energy markets, and antitrust enforcement.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Progress Toward Reopening Government

• Senate Moves Closer to a Deal (00:55 – 02:58)

  • The Senate has passed a procedural motion to advance the bill, but unanimous consent is still needed to fast-track a final vote. Senator Rand Paul and others could delay proceedings.
  • Quote: “They have to ride out a clock, take another procedural vote, ride out the clock again. So it could be days instead of hours.” (Political Analyst, 02:31)

• White House Position (03:15)

  • Although President Trump hasn’t formally commented, reports say he’s on board and will sign the bill if passed.

2. Party Politics and Fractures

• Democrats Split in Senate (03:34 – 04:16)

  • Eight Democratic senators, none up for re-election, voted with Republicans. Senate leadership (Schumer, Jeffries) opposed.
  • Quote: “None of these eight are up for reelection next November. That is key here and to me indicates that there was some game of chess being played as to who was going to step up and kind of hold their nose and vote for this.” (Political Analyst, 04:16)

• Pressure on House Conservatives and Math of Passage (05:14 – 06:20)

  • Narrow GOP majority means only two or three Republican defections can be afforded if Democrats remain united in opposition.
  • Swearing-in of Rep.-elect Grijalva could tip the numbers.

3. Direct Stakeholder Impact: Interview with Rep. Greg Stanton

• Health Care as a Hill to Die On (06:52 – 12:44)

  • Stanton will not support the deal, citing its failure to address skyrocketing ACA premiums and weakened health coverage.
  • Quote: “We desperately want the government to reopen, but we don’t want to do it without also ensuring that people have affordable health care.” (Stanton, 06:52)
  • Democrats’ electoral successes in purple states (NJ, VA) attributed to backlash against Republican policies on tariffs, health care, and deportations—not solely the shutdown.

• Presidential Rhetoric on ACA, Subsidies, and Health Insurers (10:10 – 12:06)

  • President Trump suggests redirecting federal ACA subsidies “directly to people,” causing insurer stocks to fall.
  • Quote: “We don’t know what the president is talking about...It’s wrong for the American people. It’s wrong for health care. But politically it’s good for the Democrats… The Republicans would be much better off if they just came to an agreement with us to lower health care costs...” (Stanton, 10:46)

• Shutdown Policy Leverage vs. Principle (12:06 – 13:46)

  • Stanton insists the shutdown shouldn’t end without real progress on healthcare: “We need to lower costs... We need to get the government open. We need to do both. It’s not one or the other.”

4. Broader Economic and Political Sentiment

• Consumer Sentiment and Economic Anxiety (16:49 – 18:19)

  • New Harris Poll: Half of respondents say the economy isn’t working for them, up sharply from earlier in the year.
  • Mood is especially sour among independents.

• Political Analysis with Rick Davis & Jeannie Shan Zaino (18:53 – 27:27):

  • Davis: Frustration is driving votes to end the shutdown: “Your day job is not to shut down government. Your day job is to make government work.” (20:31)
  • Zaino: Shutdowns don’t yield substantive policy wins: “Shutdowns are never about policy changes...What they are are framing mechanisms for these parties to say, we are the party of X.” (22:15)
  • Both underscore that while Dems are pressing on affordability, keeping a government shut isn’t tenable for most moderate Democrats.

• ACA/Obamacare Politics Linger:

  • Trump’s lack of a detailed replacement plan gets criticized.
  • McCain’s infamous ‘thumbs down’ on ACA repeal in 2017 is recalled. (25:53)
  • Quote: “He’s trying to deflect some of the incoming that he’s gotten on the criticism of the ACA...they don’t have a plan.” (Rick Davis, 25:53)

5. Policy Details: Federal Workers, Air Traffic Controllers, Shutdown Consequences

• Federal Worker Protections (27:27)

  • The deal contains provisions to reverse certain firings, a sticking point for the White House and Freedom Caucus conservatives.

• FAA Crisis, Travel, and Benefits Lags (01:45, 13:46)

  • Shutdown leads to reduced flight capacity, delayed SNAP benefits, creating urgency for resolution.

6. Energy Markets Amid Shutdown

• Oil Prices and Sanctions (30:04 – 36:16)
  • Bob McNally explains that, despite minor rallies due to sanction news, oil prices are set to trend downward due to global oversupply.
  • Hungary’s exemption from Russian sanctions is minor in global impact (2% of Russian exports).
  • IEA is poised to forecast rising oil demand through 2050 for the first time in years, signaling future supply crunches if investment lags. (33:46)
  • Iran and Middle East conflict remain the largest geopolitical risks for oil prices.

7. Antitrust, Affordability, and the Administration’s Political Posture

• Meatpacking, DOJ/FTC Actions, and Merger Policy (36:16 – 42:25)
  • Trump administration’s moves on the beef industry and affordability echo prior Democratic initiatives but face doubts over follow-through.
  • FTC intervention in deals (Pfizer/Metsara) during shutdown raises legal and process questions.
  • Analysts, like Doug Farrar, see inconsistencies—populist rhetoric but pro-business actions, less aggressive antitrust enforcement than under Biden.
  • Debate over protecting domestic industry vs. tackling foreign ownership.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the urgency to end the shutdown:

  “Let's get government back open. Let's get these people back working. Let's get the air traffic controllers back in the terminals and, and we can beat each other up over policy all day long after that.” (Rick Davis, 19:45)

• On Democratic division over the bill:

  “There was some game of chess being played as to who was going to step up and kind of hold their nose and vote for this.” (Political Analyst, 04:16)

• Rep. Greg Stanton’s principle stance:

  “We want to lower costs overall. We're fighting against these tariffs that are increasing costs ... and now the decision not to support the Affordable Care act, not to continue with these tax credits which make it more affordable. We know how bad it is for the American people. We're going to fight for it now and continue to fight for it.” (Stanton, 12:44)

• On Trump’s health policy rhetoric:

  “We don't know what the president is talking about... It's wrong for the American people. It's wrong for health care. But politically it's good for the Democrats...” (Stanton, 10:46)

• On the effect of the shutdown on moderate Democrats:

  “It's very hard for Democrats in particular to keep a shutdown going on as long as they have because of course, Democrats are a party of government. They want the government to be active. And so to shut it down makes very little sense for most moderate Democrats.” (Jeannie Shan Zaino, 22:15)

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Important Timestamps

• 00:55 – Shutdown bill procedural progress in Senate discussed
• 02:31 – Delays forecast due to potential Senate objections
• 03:15 – White House unofficially backs deal
• 04:16 – Implications of eight Democrats voting with GOP
• 06:52 – Rep. Stanton explains Democratic opposition
• 10:46 – Stanton on Trump’s ACA rhetoric and its political impact
• 16:49 – Public sentiment: Economy and consumer confidence numbers
• 18:53 – Political strategists analyze impact of shutdown on parties, voters
• 22:15 – Jeannie Shan Zaino on meaning of shutdowns
• 25:53 – ACA repeal politics, and why the health care fight endures
• 27:27 – Reversing federal worker firings: policy trade-offs
• 30:04 – Bob McNally: Oil markets react to shutdown and sanctions
• 33:46 – Big energy forecasts from IEA and OPEC previewed
• 35:19 – Iran remains the top geopolitical risk for oil
• 36:16 – DOJ, FTC, antitrust, and food industry: New investigations and challenges

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Conclusion

The episode captures the high-wire act facing congressional leaders in ending a historic government shutdown, the deep divisions within and between the parties—particularly over health care and federal employment—and the broader anxiety plaguing American voters. The panel underscores that the shutdown, while rooted in policy disputes, is even more about political messaging, framing, and positioning for the 2026 election. In parallel, ripple effects are felt in economic confidence, regulatory actions, and global markets, with expert analysis highlighting the constraints and contradictions of current White House policy.

Listeners looking for both granular detail and political context will find this episode a thorough, clear-eyed breakdown of what’s at stake as Washington inches toward reopening the federal government.

Transcript

[Bloomberg Podcast Host]

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[Tyler Kendall]

Tyler Kendall here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew, where we are inching closer. It appears to reopen the government after a record long closure. But while the Senate has passed this bill on a procedural basis, there's still a lot more that needs to get done before we see final passage. And as House Speaker Mike Johnson outlined earlier, it's definitely not a done deal.

[Bob McNally]

They'll need unanimous consent from all senators to fast track their final vote. As you know, there are some procedural.

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Hurdles that one or more could throw.

[Bob McNally]

In the way, but we certainly hope that they won't do that because so many people across this country are desperate for the government to reopen. I'm stating the obvious to all my colleagues, Republicans and Democrats in the House. You need to begin right now. Returning to the Hill. We have to do this as quickly as possible.

[Megan Scully]

That, of course, easier said than done knowing that we have a travel crisis in air traffic control crackdown in this country. The FAA each day is removing 1% of capacity. It started at 4%. Friday will be at 10% by the end of this week. So just getting back to Washington is going to be part of the story here. If the timeline holds, from what we understand, we could see a vote as soon as this evening in the Senate. The House would be looking at Wednesday in a best case scenario. But let's talk to Megan Scully about this. She runs her Capital Influence team. I don't think they ever stopped working all weekend because the Senate never went home. It's great to see you. Happy Monday. There's light at the end of the tunnel and then we can start talking about the January shutdown. But I'll hold off on that for a minute. Do we expect to see voting tonight in the Senate? How quick can John Thune get this done?

[Political Analyst (possibly a Bloomberg correspondent)]

So he needs consent from all hundred senators to move this along. We're expecting some folks including Senator Rand Paul, who typically holds these things up to do just that, which would then essentially put the brakes on. They have to ride out a clock, take another procedural vote, ride out the clock again. So it could be days instead of hours. But this morning, Senator Thune was saying he's hoping it's the hours measured in hours, not in days.

[Tyler Kendall]

Have we heard from the White House on where they stand on this plan? Because while it would include the stopgap measure, reopen the government, as Joe mentioned, to January 30th, it also appears to have this pullback when it comes to the firing of federal workers, which of course, is a policy that this White House really championed.

[Political Analyst (possibly a Bloomberg correspondent)]

Yes. We have not heard anything as of yet from the president himself. We are hearing rumblings from the White House that he is on board with this. Senator Thune said that the compromise had been floated with President Trump last night and that he expects Trump to sign it if and when it eventually makes it to his desk.

[Megan Scully]

What's it like in the leadership offices right now for Democrats? That is because these eight senators broke ranks, right? Chuck Schumer was still a no, and Hakeem Jeffries just made it pretty clear that he's going to stay a no. They don't like what's going on here, but they've not managed to keep everybody from, from voting a certain way. There you have on your screen on Bloomberg TV the eighth, including Dick Durbin, by the way, in the leadership who decided to just say, yeah, let's get this done. What does this mean for Chuck Schumer now to lose eight votes like this? A lot of folks are calling for him to step down. We hear this type of thing when voting doesn't go a certain way. But how confused is this in the leadership office?

[Political Analyst (possibly a Bloomberg correspondent)]

So I think that it's telling. You know, Tyler said it at the top of the hour that none of these eight are up for reelection next November. That is key here and to me indicates that there was some game of chess being played as to who was going to step up and kind of hold their nose and vote for this. Senator Durbin, as you mentioned, is a member of leadership. He is not one you would typically see voting with Republicans on an issue. He is, however, an appropriator, and most importantly, he is retiring. So that makes him a safe vote. I think that there was. That was all built into the calculus here. Of course, Schumer got blasted just months ago when he acquiesced to Republicans and kept the government open back in March amid concerns that Trump was too powerful and too popular at that moment. This, though, has been going on for some 41 days and the calculus is changing, particularly as people go without their food benefits.

[Tyler Kendall]

So that's the Senate. What are you watching for when this gets over to the House? Not just on the Democratic side, but also I'm wondering about House conservatives that weren't able to negotiate some of these spending levels and the bills that are tied to this.

[Political Analyst (possibly a Bloomberg correspondent)]

So things like the, the fired federal workers that you mentioned, some of the spending aspects of this could really cause some consternation, particularly with members of the House Freedom Caucus. We're seeing some tepid support, but that's far from certain at this point. The House leader, the House majority, the Republican majority, is so narrow that they can only really afford to lose two or three votes and still get this through if Democrats remain united in opposition. What I'll be curious to see is if they lose some Republican votes, if they pick up moderate Democrats. Now, Democrats should be having an additional vote when this finally comes up because the, the representative elect, Gray Alva from Arizona, who has long been awaiting her swearing in, will likely be sworn in prior to this vote.

[Tyler Kendall]

Right. And that would make it so that Republicans can only lose two members of the GOP to get this through. It's always a math game. Megan Scully, she leads our Capitol Influence team here at Bloomberg News. Thank you, Ed. Always. And to extend the conversation, we're going to bring in one of those stakeholders, Congressman Greg Stanton. He's a Democrat representing Arizona's 4th district and also is the former mayor of Phoenix. Congressman, thanks so much for joining us here on Bloomberg. It looks like this package is headed to your chamber later this week. Just to start out, how are you going to vote?

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Well, based upon what I know and what I read about that the agreement contains, I do not plan to support it. You know, we had taken a principal position throughout the shutdown that we desperately want the government to reopen, but we don't want to do it without also ensuring that people have affordable health care. The shutdown happened at the same time that people were receiving their massive increases in premiums under the Affordable Care act and many other health care entities as well, coming right on the heels of millions of Americans losing their insurance under the one big beautiful bill. It was an assault on Americans health care, and that is a critically important fight as well. And my analysis of the agreement doesn't indicate that we're going to be able to say that we've truly supported people's health care and lowering Health care costs.

[Megan Scully]

So what just happened here, Congressman, last Tuesday night was framed as a big win for Democrats. The President was upset about losses that had clearly been inspired by the shutdown. Republicans were seem to be taking the blame by the end of the week. A jailbreak in the Senate. And I'm curious what you make of the timing here and whether you've heard anything about a vote on these Obamacare subsidies. Because every Democrat we've interviewed on this program said the promise of a vote was simply not enough.

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Well, the promise of the vote was only on the Senate side. Obviously, the Speaker Johnson has indicated that he's not going to allow that on, on our side. So he was not part of that agreement. That's another big reason we should not be considering voting in favor of this. We need to ensure that we're going to have a real opportunity to lower health care costs. But let's talk about Tuesday because the Democrats did win overwhelmingly on Tuesday, particularly in the purple states of New Jersey and Virginia. That wasn't about the shutdown per se. It was about the totality of what the Republicans are doing. These tariffs that are raising costs on the American people. The one big beautiful billboard that decimated health care for Americans, mass deportation is unbelievably unpopular. I think that was a strong statement by those purple states that they are rejecting Trump and they're rejecting MAGA type politics. And we're going to win the majority in next year's election. We're going to win it going away. Because as long as these Republicans just keep doing whatever Trump tells them to do, they don't stand up for themselves. They just roll over and allow him to, to run everything. The American people are saying that's not the kind of politics we want to see in Washington.

[Tyler Kendall]

But Congressman, if there was a promised vote in the House that mirrors the one that we're expecting in the Senate on extending the Affordable Care act premium subsidies after the government reopens, would that be enough to get your vote on board now to reopen the government?

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Well, it's too early to say that because we have to know what exactly the vote would be. What would be in the vote? Would it be the Democratic proposal we wanted to keep the cost of the Affordable Care act down permanently. And I know that's a very different viewpoint than the Republicans. So I just think it's too early to answer that because we don't know what would be in that vote that wasn't negotiated in this agreement. And that's really a very unfortunate thing.

[Megan Scully]

Congressman, the President on truth Social is talking about health care and health insurance that's pulling shares of health insurers lower today, saying hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding that goes to what he calls money sucking. Health insurers under the ACA should be sent directly to the public. He says he's recommending to Senate Republicans that this money be sent directly to people so they can purchase their own. In his words, much better health care and have money left over. Do you know what he's talking about and could he do that without Congress?

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Of course, we don't know what the president is talking about. And my feeling is here we go again, the president with his repeal and replace politics as it relates to the Affordable Care Act. As you know, he talked about this incessantly in his first term in office, wanting to repeal it. And then they asked him, well, what would you replace it with? And he had no idea. Concepts of a plan or whatever. He said, the truth is the American people support the Affordable Care Act. I was part of the class of 2018 in Congress. We won 41 seats because we ran on protecting and supporting the Affordable Care Act. I cannot believe the president is doing this again. And it's wrong for the American people. It's wrong for health care. But politically it's good for the Democrats because we're again going to be running for Congress and we're going to win overwhelmingly by standing up and defending and supporting the Affordable Care Act. The Republicans would be much better off if they just came to an agreement with us to lower health care costs in America to support the Affordable Care Act. But instead, they keep following Trump off this health care cliff and he continues with his talk of repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act. We don't know what he's talking about, but we do know it's a step in the wrong direction.

[Tyler Kendall]

But if this is an issue that Democrats do well on and if this is an issue that requires time to hammer out a deal, I know that you still need to look at what this legislation in front of you this week is going to look like. But why not pass to reopen the government and then use January 30th as the new pressure point so that Democrats can make the conversation about health care and put forward a plan that works and gets agreement to actually enact it for the American people. In the meantime, you have money starting to flow in to alleviate some of those pressure points, like on our air traffic control system and for snap food benefit recipients.

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Well, we're going to keep fighting to lower health care costs for the American people. We want to lower costs overall. We're fighting against these tariffs that are increasing costs for the American people. And we know these decisions of the Republicans, both in the one big beautiful bill and now the decision not to support the Affordable Care act, not to continue with these tax credits which make it more affordable. We know how bad it is for the American people. We're going to fight for it now and continue to fight for it. And if it doesn't get done now, we're going to continue to fight for. This is not a one off thing or, or a cynical thing. We believe passionately that we have to lower costs for the American people. And that is why the reason why we took such a strong step in the last few weeks is because people were receiving their premium increases in the mail at that time. So we wanted to make that point that we need to lower health care costs. We need to get the government open. We need to do both. It's not one or the other. And that's the principled position that House Democrats have taken.

[Megan Scully]

I want to ask you about air traffic controllers because someone like yourself has more than a couple of hours to fly when it's time to get back to Washington this week to vote. I guess at some point in the coming days, the President is threatening to dock, to use his word dock, the pay of air traffic controllers who took time off, as he puts it, for the Democrat shutdown hoax those who did not take time off. He's recommending a bonus of $10,000 per person for what he describes as distinguished service to our country. Does he need Congress to do either of those? Both of those Congressmen?

[Congressman Greg Stanton]

Yeah, we saw with the whole Doge thing with Elon Musk and him coming in and trying to unilaterally fire a bunch of employees and do it indiscriminately. And then they had to beg these employees to come back because neither Elon Musk nor Doge actually understood what they did. This has echoes of that. Look, all of the air traffic controllers are our heroes and many of them were not, were not able to work the overtime that they normally work because they weren't getting paid. So they had to do childcare or some cases had to work a second job in order to have some level of income. Those air traffic controllers are the heroes of this shutdown. In fact, I went so far as to say that I actually supported Secretary Duffy, the Secretary of Transportation, in lowering the number of flights at the 40 busiest airports because safety of the traveling public has to be the highest, highest priority. And these air traffic controllers are.

[Megan Scully]

I wish we had more time with you. Congressman Greg Stanton. Safe travels back from Arizona. We'll see you here in the Capitol. I'm Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg.

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[Bloomberg Podcast Host]

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[Tyler Kendall]

Play Bloomberg 11:30 here in Washington alongside Joe Matthew, where we're tracking any developments around potentially reopening the government as it seems lawmakers are picking up at least some momentum this week. And it comes as Americans have watched this crisis drag on. We saw consumer sentiment hit a near record low last week, according to a new preliminary reading in November from the University of Michigan. And we have a new data point of our own here at Bloomberg News. A new Harris Poll conducted for Bloomberg and released today finds half of respondents in October. Joe Matthews said the economy wasn't working for them. That was up from 41% in February. As we know, there have been a slew of economic policies that have hit Americans so far this year.

[Megan Scully]

And as you can see on the screen, Republicans weigh in differently than Democrats and it's frequently independents. We're looking at in which way they're breaking here. But it does come down to a very similar conversation to the one that we were having on Friday when consumer sentiment, you miss consumer sentiment came out in the comparisons to the prior administration. I'd love to get Jared Bernstein back in here, to be honest with you, to talk about this. You know, do you want to believe me or your lion eyes type of approach where people are not feeling great, but the president is telling them that the economy is better than their experience? This is something that Joe Biden learned a lot about trying to get prices back down. And the president is still trying to figure out the job. Yeah, I'd say we definitely do it. Let's invite Jared back on to talk about this because, Tyler, it is something that Democrats and Republicans have in common.

[Tyler Kendall]

Right, Exactly. And both administrations have said that it will take time to see their economic policies work through the economy. I was struck in our story that's on the Bloomberg Terminal about this data. It shows how we've seen Trump administration officials at first say that we would see those results by the fourth quarter. We're now seeing them push out those estimates to next year. And the economy, of course, has been critical for this White House because President Trump's potential handling of the economy was the issue, according to all of our Bloomberg News polling in those critical battleground states that really helped propel him to the White House.

[Public.com Advertiser/Host]

That's true.

[Megan Scully]

And this is why we're hearing about it more from Democrats these days in some cases than Republicans. We assembled our political panel for their take on all of this. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino are with us. Jeannie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. You spoke to this when U Mitch came out on Friday, Rick. And I guess against the backdrop of what we've seen in the past 24 hours, it's just curious, Democrats outperformed in elections last week, Republicans taking the blame for the shutdown. You add this particular layer here. Republicans are on the ropes when it comes to affordability, specifically as an issue. Why then do these eight Democratic senators turn around and vote yes on the deal? What do you make of the timing?

[Rick Davis]

You know, I think that, look, we're already at the historically longest government shutdown in history. There's an enormous amount of frustration, grinding of gears. We've talked a lot about, you know, the flight situations, but also government employees out of work not getting paid. There are a lot of pressure on, on these members of Congress, regardless of what the status of negotiations are, who's getting what out of the deal to say, you know what, we've had enough of this. Let's, let's get government back open. Let's get these people back working. Let's get the air traffic controllers back in the terminals and, and we can beat each other up over policy all day long after that. But I really don't think it's much more than just doing your day job.

[Megan Scully]

Right.

[Rick Davis]

Your day job is not to shut down government. Your day job is to make government work this first step in that direction. But they do it in the, in the. With the veil of a very grumpy electorate.

[Bob McNally]

Right.

[Rick Davis]

I mean, you know, a lot of the economic progress that's been made under Donald Trump has been made with, you know, wealthier individuals and corporations. And there are a lot of folks feeling totally left behind. Hey, that sounds just like the Biden administration, where they had some economic progress, but they weren't able to translate it down to the working class. And so, you know, this poll that you have really screams out independent voters are grumpy about the economic situation and their future. And the future is really the thing that barks out in this poll, as does the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, in that even though they might be feeling fine right now, and that is borne out by some macro and microeconomic factors, they think the future is dismal economically and that is causing a lot of disruption. And we saw some of that disruption last Tuesday with a massive vote for Democrats, a big turnout of voters, and a real disruption in the political system.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Jeannie, let's get your thoughts on how American sentiment is being impacted by this government shutdown and then also go back to this question on a timeline which mirrors what Joe was asking Rick, because we know that at the heart of Democrats demands was that they want to see changes when it comes to health care. But realistically, how long is it going to take to hammer out a deal with Republicans on health care? And could Democrats afford to do that while the government shutdown dragged on?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, I think these eight folders, as I'm calling them now, Tyler, they decided that they were not going to be able to get there from a policy perspective. And that is in keeping with what we know historically about shutdowns. Shutdowns are never about policy changes or seldom result in policy changes. What they are are framing mechanisms for these parties to say, we are the party of acts. In the 95, 96 shutdown, the GOP was able to say we are the party of responsible budgeting. We want to deal with the debt, we want to balance the budget. Today, the Democrats can claim the mantle of we are the party focused on affordability and the health care of Americans and making it cost effective. And that's something they hope to take into 26. That said, it's very hard for Democrats in particular to keep a shutdown going on as long as they have because of course, Democrats are a party of government. They want the government to be active. And so to shut it down makes very little sense for most moderate Democrats. And I thought the poll that you're just talking about, the Bloomberg Harris poll, is fascinating because the numbers, Donald Trump's approval, he's under 18% underwater on the economy and only a third of Americans in this poll saying the economy is on the right track. And what is Donald Trump doing? He's low flying over football games. He is avoiding every opportunity to talk about the economy. He's sitting in the White House last week as we talked about, saying affordability is a con job. Well, these are not the words of somebody focused on making the economy right. And this comes on the heels of both Scott Bessant and Kevin Hassett saying that parts of this economy are in recession. So the question here is at what point does the president take that seriously and the GOP start to address it? The longer they avoid it, the better politically for democrats going into 26, but the worse for working class and average Americans in the moment. And as we go forward, we just.

[Megan Scully]

Heard from Adelita Grijalva, a name that has been coming up a bit more now that the government appears to be on the threshold of reopening. The representative elect would be sworn in to take part in the this vote. Just out with a statement here from her district in Arizona, quote, I am planning to travel to Washington, she writes, after hearing through Leader Jeffries and media reports that Speaker Johnson finally intends to swear me in. I guess that invitation hasn't come directly. While I'm eager to get to work, she writes, I'm disappointed one of my first votes will be on a bill that does nothing to protect working people from skyrocketing premiums, loss of health coverage or do anything significant to rein in what she calls Trump's abuse of power. So I guess that's a no. But Rick, I'm curious your thoughts on the president's post here involving the health insurers because it's moving stocks. You've got Centene, UnitedHealth and others pointed straight down after the president went on Truth Social to say that hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funding that goes to money sucking health insurers under the ACA should be sent directly to to the public. He says people can purchase their own much better health care and have money left over. I'm sure you'll never forget the thumbs down moment with Senator John McCain on the Senate floor. And I know that Donald Trump has not forgotten it either. What do you make of the fact that still at this point, when we consider the idea of concepts of a plan that Republicans don't have a better idea? The president has not put forth a formal proposal on health care to replace Obamacare. How are we still having this conversation?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, you know, the president kind of stepped in it again this last week talking about, well, what we really need to do is not debate, you know, these ACA subsidies, but to actually reform health care in America. And that's a really deep well that gets really dark the further down you go. And the reality is he got to ask the right question, which is, well, you've been talking about this for 15 years. What's your plan? And I guess this was, you know, behind the envelope, hey, I got a plan. You know, don't give the money to insurance companies. Give it to the individuals who, I guess, I mean, unless I misreading this, then give it to the insurance companies for health coverage. I mean, I'm not exactly sure how this Ponzi scheme is supposed to work, but I think it's just a reaction to not having a plan. And all the best advisors in the world you can imagine, he called him in and says, what's my plan? And they're like, we don't have a plan. And he's like, okay, I got to come up with one. And here you go. So I don't know. I mean, I think he's trying to deflect some of the incoming that he's gotten on the criticism of the ACA. And by the way, as you pointed out, John McCain went down to the well of the Senate and put his thumb down on what was called at the time skinny reform. It was not reform form of aca. It was a gutting of the ACA and going to leave a lot of people without health care. And so, you know, deja vu all over again, I guess, in the United States Senate and in the White House.

[Tyler Kendall]

Jeannie, we only have about a minute left with you. Health care, of course, as Joe and Rick outlined at the center of this, but also we saw federal workers being fired come to a head during this shutdown. This package would supposedly resort reverse those federal firings. Is this something that the White House is going to go for when we know that this has really been one of the centerpieces of the agenda while the government's been closed.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing, Tyler. I can't imagine Donald Trump would. I have not heard yet whether he supports this, but this is diametrically opposed to everything he and Russ Boat and by the way, Elon Musk and Doge have been focused on since he got into office. So maybe they'll have to swallow this as a part of a way to get the government reopened. It seems that Tim Kaine Critical vote here. This was critical for him and coming on board with Republicans to reopen. But I can't imagine that Russell is looking fondly at this idea or the president.

[Tyler Kendall]

All right, our political panel today, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, both Bloomberg Politics contributors. Thanks so much as always. We're going to turn from domestic politics to foreign policy next talk about the oil market after some recent sanctions relief. Stick with us. This is Bloomberg.

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[Megan Scully]

A risk of off session to steal a phrase here. And we're even seeing oil prices tick higher. Yeah, WTI West Texas Intermediate. Not a lot, but up about a half percent to crawl back above $60 a barrel. And the idea here is that the government shutdown is making everybody feel a little bit better about something. This can get to be difficult to quantify in the energy market though. And that's why we wanted to spend some time with Bob McNally, the founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group. Spent some time in the White House dealing with energy matters as a special assistant Senior director for International Energy on the National Security Council under President George W. Bush. Bob McNally, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. From what we understand here, investors are looking at this a bit differently. At least the settling of prices that you have been forecasting will tip lower here, even lower. Yet deepening their bearish stance at this time. Because what Bob, as you say, it just comes down to barrels, right?

[Bob McNally]

Joe, great to be with you. You know, you're right. The market analysts have been looking over the horizon for signs of this surplus, this tsunami, if you will. Futures curbs have been flattening way into contango and oil inventories are beginning to rise, especially oil at sea. Now we can track that couldn't do that 20 years ago. Now we see it. And so there are incipient indicators that this long expected looseness, oversupply in the market is arriving. And you see oil prices gravitationally, Joe, they want to go lower. They were headed lower fast until President Trump. Trump surprised everybody a couple of weeks ago by announcing those sanctions on Russia. And they had to have short covering and a sharp little rally in prices. But the gravitational forces I think are going to continue to impose themselves. And unless we have a material disruption due to geopolitical risks, I think direction of oil prices is lower.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Bob, I actually wanted to ask you about an exemption to those Russian sanctions. On Friday, the White House announced, announced that Hungary would be granted an exemption. We know that they import a lot of Russian energy supplies. About 90% of Hungary's crude imports come from Moscow. How are you watching that? Is that going to make a dent when it comes to Russia's revenues from barrels reaching the market?

[Bob McNally]

Hi Tyler. No, it's a real small issue for the global oil market and for Russia's revenues. Look, Hungary is a landlocked country that as you mentioned, gets just about oil, all its oil and gas from Russia. In the case of oil from the Druzeba pipeline, I mean, there's just no other options. It can't bring on, you know, oil from the US US Tankers and so forth that easily. And so, so it's about 2% of Russia's export volume and revenue. So it's not a big deal for Russia. I mean, by not forcing Hungary to stop taking Russian oil, the Russians are preserving about 2% of their volume and revenue for exports. But in the grand scheme of thing is pretty small. Hungary is very dependent, needed Russia a lot more than Russia needed Hungary. And the president gets along very well with Viktor Orban. So not too surprising that deal was cut.

[Megan Scully]

Yeah. Bob, we're going to hear from OPEC and from the International Energy Agency both on Wednesday. Their analysis and outlooks. Will they agree and what will they tell us?

[Bob McNally]

Well, Joe, Wednesday is a very big day for the analyst community, the energy analyst community, because the IEA will issue its annual World Energy Outlook. We oh, we call it. And for the first time in five years, that flagship influential forecast will include something investors have not seen, a scenario, a forecast where if we assume current policies are in place around the world, oil and gas demand continue rising until 2050. For the last five years, the IEA has only issued forecasts that show oil and gas demand peaking around 2030 and then either plateauing or falling. So while we may be talking about a glut up here in the front in the beginning couple quarters of next year, what the IEA is going to reveal for folks again, Rapidan has been of this view for a long time, but is that the medium to long term is looking a lot tighter because one thing everyone would agree, Joe, we are not investing enough in oil to supply a world in which demand keeps growing after 2030, as the IEA for the first time says it might, instead of peaking by then. So very big day for, for the world energy community and the IEA on Wednesday.

[Tyler Kendall]

Bob, in the final minute, we have you what is the foremost geopolitical risk when it comes to the Middle east and the oil markets? Because today, for example, we have the Syrian president meeting with President Trump at the White House.

[Bob McNally]

You know, the biggest risk remains Iran. There was an excellent Stephen Erlanger, a New York Times report the other day, end of last week, I think pointing out something we've been advising clients for a while is not over. We had the June war and then people aren't paying attention anymore. But Iran is reconstituting its nuclear weapons systems and its other means of terrorism and Israel is not in the mood to allow that to continue. And I think if you ask me what is the biggest risk, it is that we have a flare up again of military conflict in the Gulf and that unlike June, Iran or others start targeting major Gulf infrastructure. The lion's share of oil and gas production exports is still in that region. It's not over with Iran. So that's the one that I think I would worry about much more than what's happening in Syria or even Iraq.

[Tyler Kendall]

All right, Bob McNally, founder and president of the Rapid in Energy Group, thank you so much for joining us as always here on Bloomberg Television and radio. We didn't get into this part of the conversation, but we know that President Trump has had his sights set when it comes to lowering energy costs. And it appears that the administration is taking aim at another high cost for consumers when it comes to the price of the food industry, in particular, consumer beef prices, which have jumped 16% this year according to the USDA. Tyson's Foods today saying it expects profits to be little changed next year as beef continues to to lose money for the company. And now President Trump is directing his Department of Justice to look into allegedly driving up prices when it comes to the meatpacking industry. To unpack all of this, we're joined now by Doug Farrar, principal at Maywood Strategies and former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lina Khan. Doug, it's good to see you and thanks for coming in. Can you just walk us through this? The Trump administration is now trying to launch an investigation which sounds similar to some of the investigations that we saw launched under the last administration. How feasible is this for an investigation like this to get off the ground?

[Doug Farrar]

Well, thanks for having me on. So it's going to be tough. They cut staff quite a bit. Obviously, we know about Doge. A lot of staff have left the ofTC and the DOJ. And when you run functionally a law firm and you take on some of these major investigations, you need a ton of bodies, you need a ton of really sharp lawyers, subject matter experts to really make a case. And this market is definitely one worth looking at. So I think it'll be a challenge and we'll see if they have the attention span to see it through and the staff to really make a difference.

[Megan Scully]

I need to ask you about what's going on at the ftc, not that you're there any longer with regard to Pfizer. This story today is remarkable. And Pfizer is a mover because of this. Albert Bourla learned that the board at Metsehra had voted unanimously to accept Pfizer's takeover offer, which it was competing with Novo and had been some other companies. Turns out the FTC picked up the phone and called Metsara to warn the company that it would look unfavorably on the corporate structure that would have been included under the Novo deal. And just like that, we've got a merger Monday Is that legal?

[Doug Farrar]

Well, I'm not following it as close as you are, as you said, but I know that the agency said they weren't granting early terminations during the shutdown period and they've obviously. And so I think that that's an interesting data point to look at as you consider what's going on at the FTC right now and how they're examining mergers. But yeah, it's a complicated.

[Megan Scully]

To what extent though is the agency allowed to actually get involved on a direct level like that with. With a proposed deal?

[Doug Farrar]

Typically agencies don't get involved at a proposal level. It's once an HSR filing's been made, a merger's been announced. Certainly the agency see staff are in communication with firms, for instance, who are thinking about merging in order to ask them to preserve documents and do things like that. But yeah, in general, it's pretty unusual.

[Tyler Kendall]

A lot of this is coming down to this idea of antitrust going up against big companies. We're seeing affordability really come to the forefront, particularly after Tuesday's recent elections. I'm wondering how you're watching this administration navigate that issue. We saw Democrats come off with a win, but now we have President Trump and the administration announcing some of these initiatives that are geared towards, they say, lowering prices and breaking up competitiveness.

[Doug Farrar]

Yeah, it's an interesting question. I mean, he campaigned on breaking up big tech monopolies, on being a sort of fire breathing populace. And since then he's come in and he's been incredibly friendly to business. If you look at his AI eo for instance, he's essentially instructing the FTC to be a concierge for AI companies seeking to roll up the market. You know, so this is a big shift and I do think it's driven by politics. You know, the attention span of this administration is not long. And in order to really make an affordability agenda based on antitrust enforcement, for instance, you have to find good cases, bring them to court, win, win on appeal. And it takes a lot of work and they've lost a lot of staff and it takes a lot of attention and it makes a lot of people mad. And you go back to the meatpacking industry. You know, some of the meatpacking executives have incredibly cozy relationships with the president. So if he decides he really wants to go after them, is he going to get an angry phone call? Is that going to change things? You know, maybe there's a donation to the ballroom. Who knows? It's kind of an open question.

[Megan Scully]

Interesting. You know, you look at the likes of Goldman Sachs. Listen to what David Solomon is saying about the pipeline right now. We heard a lot about animal spirits when this president went back into the White House. Is that coming to fruition? Are you seeing the pipeline filled in a way that people expect it?

[Doug Farrar]

I think in the initial phase, people took the rhetoric seriously.

[Megan Scully]

Right.

[Doug Farrar]

I mean, you had Ferguson, Slater, you had President Trump and others, Vance, talk about how they wanted to do a lot of enforcement, but there hasn't been a lot of enforcement. And to the degree there has been, it's been kind of odd with certain merger settlements being a little unusual, very political, outside of the realm of what's normally done in antitrust. So, you know, I don't know whether that will lead to a merger wave or not, but certainly it doesn't seem like the agencies are going to be as active as they were under President Biden.

[Tyler Kendall]

A lot of this administration's policies have to do with bolstering domestic manufacturing, protecting US Companies. In President Trump's post, when it came to the meatpackers, he wrote about cracking down on majority foreign owned companies that are driving up prices. According to him, in your experience, how much is this about combating international companies versus domestically owned ones?

[Doug Farrar]

It's a good question and I think it's very market specific. You know, the meat packers import a lot of meat from abroad countries like Canada, countries further afield like Nigeria, Brazil. And what I think a lot of the ranchers want is country of origin labeling. You know, we're in a maha moment, right? People want to know what they're eating and where it came from. And American ranchers feel, I think rightly, that if people knew it was American beef, they might even pay more for it. That would empower them to have a more profitable business and fight back against the consolidation of the packers. So I think there's some stuff that they can do on this.

[Megan Scully]

Well, Doug, we should mention the fact that at Maywood Strategies, this is day one, right? You're just getting your new firm off the ground.

[Doug Farrar]

That's right. Day one. I'm looking forward to working with clients, looking across regulatory and political.

[Megan Scully]

Well, it's interesting to have you on the other side of the glass here. So thank you for coming. It's great to be here to talk to us. And life after the administration, I guess, is the story here. Doug, thank you so much. Maywood Strategies, former senior advisor to FTC Commissioner Lina Khan. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington alongside Tyler Kendall and we've got a whole other round here, Tyler. We likely will know more by 5pm when we join you for the late edition of Balance of Power. Whether we're going to see a Senate vote this evening, it is entirely likely that we will, which will then start the clock on a House vote. They'll have 36 hours to get everybody back in town, right?

[Tyler Kendall]

Exactly. And keep in mind, House Speaker Mike Johnson still has his work cut out for him. Right. Can only our understanding is probably lose two Republicans and he doesn't have them all.

[Megan Scully]

That's true. We're still counting votes here, even after what took place last evening in the Senate. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime [e-mail] this podcast is brought to you by FedEx the New Power Move hey, you know those people in your office who are always pulling old school corporate power moves? Like the guy who weaponizes eye contact. He's confident, he's engaged, he's often creepy. It's an old school power move, but this alpha dog laser gaze won't keep your supply chain moving across borders. The real power move? Having a smart platform that keeps up with the changing trade landscape. That's why smart businesses partner with FedEx and use the power of digital intelligence to navigate around supply chain issues before they happen. Set your sights on something that will actually improve your business. FedEx the new power Move in the.

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