Balance of Power (Bloomberg Podcast)

Episode: Shutdown Drags On as Senators Leave Washington
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu | Co-Host: Kailey Leinz

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the federal government shutdown entering its third day, with in-depth analysis from Bloomberg’s Washington correspondents and a series of high-profile Washington guests and insiders. With Congress gridlocked, the Senate plans yet another unsuccessful vote before members depart for the weekend, signaling a prolonged impasse. Discussion delves into the shutdown’s drivers—especially the fight over Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) subsidies—its impact on workers and Americans, the political consequences for both parties, and the climbing tension in Washington. Guests include Senator Todd Young (R-IN), strategist Maura Gillespie, and former Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry, along with additional commentary and reporting.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Current State of the Shutdown

• No Progress Ahead of Weekend:
  • Joe Mathieu sets the stage, noting, "There's going to be more voting today, but it does not look like that's going to break anything here." (00:55)
  • Despite repeated votes on continuing resolutions (CRs), political positions remain unchanged, and the government is expected to stay closed into next week.
• Republican & Democratic Messaging:
  • Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune do not expect a breakthrough (00:55).
  • Rep. Patrick McHenry criticizes Democrats for “taking hostage the federal government and by extension, the American people.” (01:22)
  • The two sides blame each other, primarily over the timing and urgency of rescuing Obamacare subsidies.

2. The Obamacare Subsidies Dispute

• Timing of Subsidy Expirations:
  • Republicans argue the subsidies are an “end of year issue” and accuse Democrats of stoking panic.
  • Democrats counter that “open enrollment’s begun, notices are going out”—making this a now issue for millions at risk.
• Public Perception & Political Calculations:
  • Laura Davison: "The early polls have shown that Republicans are still taking...the majority of the heat for this. If that flips...that's gonna cause a lot of people to start to wobble." (03:10)
  • The real-world impact won’t be felt immediately: "Those notices just went out...People haven't really realized if they're the people that are going to be affected." (03:10)
  • Mass layoffs and deep cuts have been threatened but not implemented.
  • Ongoing debate on how much pressure will push Democrats to compromise.

3. White House, Congressional, and Party Strategies

• Presidential Involvement:
  • President Trump is keeping an arm's length, possibly avoiding blame, instead letting surrogates fight the media battle.
  • Davison: "He absolutely could [step in]...but on shutdown, he's been keeping a little bit more...arms length." (04:12)
• Potential Rise of J.D. Vance:
  • Vice President Vance is prominent in messaging, viewed as possibly being groomed for higher office, with Trump making him "work for it." (05:08)
• Outlook for Bipartisan Solutions:
  • Davison: "It's likely that we'll see those Democrats all move together versus...a slow trickle." (05:36)
  • Mini "jailbreaks" (defections) from party unity may occur if votes are kept open longer and senators are seen huddling.

4. Senate Insights: Interview with Senator Todd Young (R-IN) (06:47-16:19)

• Impact on Constituents and Congressional Operations:
  • Senator Young: "We're still here to help Hoosiers navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the national Democratic Party..." (06:47)
• Obamacare Subsidies Urgency:
  • Young acknowledges open enrollment begins November 1 and insurance companies need time, so time is short, but he insists solutions must come after reopening the government. (08:16)
• Prospects for a Deal:
  • "Not particularly optimistic" about Democrats breaking ranks immediately.
  • Suggests a shift could happen quickly once pressure mounts. (09:04)
• Job Losses and Data Access:
  • Young supports releasing the delayed jobs report: “That sounds reasonable to me...One of the important things we do to ensure that our economy is able to run as smoothly...is to produce data.” (14:07)
• Foreign Policy Decision-Making:
  • Young stresses need for Congressional authorization for strikes, referencing recent action against Venezuela-based narco-terrorists and advocating for hearings and possibly a vote under War Powers. (15:20)

5. Political Perspectives and Power Dynamics

• Sen. Kevin Kramer (R-ND):
  • Claims for the first time, Republicans have the “moral high ground” on a shutdown. Democrats, typically adept at funding government, face complications from their far-left wing and Trump’s influence. (18:47)
• Strategist Maura Gillespie:
  • Democrats’ messaging is vulnerable: “The subsidies don’t actually expire until the end of the year...They’re making it seem so scary and so immediate.” (19:55)
  • Notes Chuck Schumer’s hand is forced by his left flank, making him take a stance she deems unwinnable politically.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune’s bicameral unity with the White House is critical.
  • Gillespie criticizes President Trump’s willingness to break norms (and take advantage of personal immunity), arguing Johnson has ceded authority to Trump. (22:39)
  • The Senate’s role is highlighted as pivotal for any resolution.

6. The Playbook from 2013 Repeats

• Historical Echoes:
  • Several guests (Gillespie, McHenry) refer to the 2013 shutdown as a model, with Democrats then refusing to negotiate until after the government reopened.
  • Gillespie: "If [Democrats] look back through history, remember those times, they'll remember...that was through the Senate." (24:27)
• Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries:
  • Jeffries calls for bipartisan cooperation but insists spending bills must lower costs, not raise them by cutting ACA tax credits. (24:36)
• No Easy Off-Ramps:
  • Gillespie (and others) doubt a top-level political meeting (Trump, Johnson, Jeffries) would change the outcome, as “the president doesn’t necessarily care...he’s not impacted by any of it.” (25:32)
  • Democrats lack a clear strategy to escape the shutdown trap.

7. Former Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry Analysis (31:01-42:49)

• Two Years Since "Vacate the Chair":
  • Reflects on the ousting of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, noting "the dynamics have so shifted."
  • The House—now having passed a clean CR—hands action to the Senate due to filibuster rules.
• Predicted Resolution Mechanics:
  • “You will have a clean reopen vote...Democratic submission to reopen the government...Then...a willingness...to extend some of the Obamacare provisions...not the full policy. I think that’s the end point.” (34:10)
• Pain as Negotiating Tool:
  • McHenry: “How do you get submission? Pain. Pain. Pain...Pain on federal employees. Russ Vote has a plan of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic senators and...constituencies.” (35:31)
  • Cites real-world impact as necessary to force movement, predicting that Democratic politicians and their base will only come to the table once the pain is sufficiently acute.
  • OMB Director Russ Vote’s “reaper” video exemplifies the administration’s aggressive tactics.
• Power Shifts and Authority in Shutdown:
  • Shutdowns greatly expand the executive’s power, which Democrats have long warned about under Trump, yet now must contend with: “A government shutdown under operation of law gives enormous authority to the director of OMB...and in that silence, they’re going to fill the void.” (38:13)
• Ultimate Prognosis:
  • “It's more of a wrestling match for submission...Everyone thinks they're winning.” (42:27)
  • “The light at the end of the tunnel could also be a train.” (39:15)

Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• Laura Davison on Polls & Pressure:

  “The early polls have shown that Republicans are still taking...the majority of the heat for this. If that flips...that's gonna cause a lot of people to start to wobble.” (03:10)

• Senator Todd Young on the Crisis:

  "We're still here to help Hoosiers navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the national Democratic Party and their far left donors..." (06:47)

• Joe Mathieu (Host) on the Repetitiveness:

  “They’re going to vote again. I mean, this is truly Groundhog Day at this point.” (17:35)

• Senator Kevin Kramer’s Surprise:

  "We're in such an odd position where the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on a government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life..." (18:47, again at 30:04)

• Maura Gillespie on ACA Messaging:

  "They're making it seem so scary and so immediate. And the facts are that the subsidies don't expire until the end of the year and...are largely for the insurance companies..." (19:55)

• Patrick McHenry on Shutdown Tactics:

  “Submission. Submission. And how do you get submission? Pain. Pain. Pain...Pain on federal employees.” (35:31) “Russ Vote has a plan of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic senators and in particular and Democratic constituencies.” (35:35) “Everyone thinks they're winning...We will see who wins in this thing. But it's more of a wrestling match for submission." (42:27-42:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & State of Play: 00:55–06:00
• Laura Davison Analysis: 02:23–06:01
• Senator Todd Young Interview: 06:47–16:19
• Sen. Kevin Kramer’s Outlook: 18:47–19:55, 30:04–30:31
• Maura Gillespie’s Commentary: 19:55–27:28
• Patrick McHenry Retrospective & Analysis: 31:01–42:49

Tone & Atmosphere

The episode maintains an urgent yet battle-weary tone, echoing bipartisan frustration. The hosts keep the conversation brisk, with flashes of gallows humor (“This is truly Groundhog Day...”), insider candor, and colorful metaphors about pain and submission in politics. With little progress in view, the underlying message is that of a cynical—and cyclical—Washington wrestling with the same issues, personalities, and power dynamics as shutdowns past.

For Listeners

If you haven’t listened, this episode is a comprehensive, candid look at the many layers of a government shutdown—policy, power plays, personal consequences, and historical echoes. It offers on-the-ground assessments from policymakers and strategists, and doesn’t shy from highlighting the brinkmanship, the “moral high ground” arguments, and the sense, from all parties, of a game with high stakes and no clear winners—yet.