Shutdown Drags On as Senators Leave Washington

Summary

Balance of Power (Bloomberg Podcast)

Episode: Shutdown Drags On as Senators Leave Washington
Date: October 3, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu | Co-Host: Kailey Leinz

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on the federal government shutdown entering its third day, with in-depth analysis from Bloomberg’s Washington correspondents and a series of high-profile Washington guests and insiders. With Congress gridlocked, the Senate plans yet another unsuccessful vote before members depart for the weekend, signaling a prolonged impasse. Discussion delves into the shutdown’s drivers—especially the fight over Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) subsidies—its impact on workers and Americans, the political consequences for both parties, and the climbing tension in Washington. Guests include Senator Todd Young (R-IN), strategist Maura Gillespie, and former Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry, along with additional commentary and reporting.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Current State of the Shutdown

• No Progress Ahead of Weekend:
  • Joe Mathieu sets the stage, noting, "There's going to be more voting today, but it does not look like that's going to break anything here." (00:55)
  • Despite repeated votes on continuing resolutions (CRs), political positions remain unchanged, and the government is expected to stay closed into next week.
• Republican & Democratic Messaging:
  • Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Leader John Thune do not expect a breakthrough (00:55).
  • Rep. Patrick McHenry criticizes Democrats for “taking hostage the federal government and by extension, the American people.” (01:22)
  • The two sides blame each other, primarily over the timing and urgency of rescuing Obamacare subsidies.

2. The Obamacare Subsidies Dispute

• Timing of Subsidy Expirations:
  • Republicans argue the subsidies are an “end of year issue” and accuse Democrats of stoking panic.
  • Democrats counter that “open enrollment’s begun, notices are going out”—making this a now issue for millions at risk.
• Public Perception & Political Calculations:
  • Laura Davison: "The early polls have shown that Republicans are still taking...the majority of the heat for this. If that flips...that's gonna cause a lot of people to start to wobble." (03:10)
  • The real-world impact won’t be felt immediately: "Those notices just went out...People haven't really realized if they're the people that are going to be affected." (03:10)
  • Mass layoffs and deep cuts have been threatened but not implemented.
  • Ongoing debate on how much pressure will push Democrats to compromise.

3. White House, Congressional, and Party Strategies

• Presidential Involvement:
  • President Trump is keeping an arm's length, possibly avoiding blame, instead letting surrogates fight the media battle.
  • Davison: "He absolutely could [step in]...but on shutdown, he's been keeping a little bit more...arms length." (04:12)
• Potential Rise of J.D. Vance:
  • Vice President Vance is prominent in messaging, viewed as possibly being groomed for higher office, with Trump making him "work for it." (05:08)
• Outlook for Bipartisan Solutions:
  • Davison: "It's likely that we'll see those Democrats all move together versus...a slow trickle." (05:36)
  • Mini "jailbreaks" (defections) from party unity may occur if votes are kept open longer and senators are seen huddling.

4. Senate Insights: Interview with Senator Todd Young (R-IN) (06:47-16:19)

• Impact on Constituents and Congressional Operations:
  • Senator Young: "We're still here to help Hoosiers navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the national Democratic Party..." (06:47)
• Obamacare Subsidies Urgency:
  • Young acknowledges open enrollment begins November 1 and insurance companies need time, so time is short, but he insists solutions must come after reopening the government. (08:16)
• Prospects for a Deal:
  • "Not particularly optimistic" about Democrats breaking ranks immediately.
  • Suggests a shift could happen quickly once pressure mounts. (09:04)
• Job Losses and Data Access:
  • Young supports releasing the delayed jobs report: “That sounds reasonable to me...One of the important things we do to ensure that our economy is able to run as smoothly...is to produce data.” (14:07)
• Foreign Policy Decision-Making:
  • Young stresses need for Congressional authorization for strikes, referencing recent action against Venezuela-based narco-terrorists and advocating for hearings and possibly a vote under War Powers. (15:20)

5. Political Perspectives and Power Dynamics

• Sen. Kevin Kramer (R-ND):
  • Claims for the first time, Republicans have the “moral high ground” on a shutdown. Democrats, typically adept at funding government, face complications from their far-left wing and Trump’s influence. (18:47)
• Strategist Maura Gillespie:
  • Democrats’ messaging is vulnerable: “The subsidies don’t actually expire until the end of the year...They’re making it seem so scary and so immediate.” (19:55)
  • Notes Chuck Schumer’s hand is forced by his left flank, making him take a stance she deems unwinnable politically.
  • Speaker Mike Johnson and John Thune’s bicameral unity with the White House is critical.
  • Gillespie criticizes President Trump’s willingness to break norms (and take advantage of personal immunity), arguing Johnson has ceded authority to Trump. (22:39)
  • The Senate’s role is highlighted as pivotal for any resolution.

6. The Playbook from 2013 Repeats

• Historical Echoes:
  • Several guests (Gillespie, McHenry) refer to the 2013 shutdown as a model, with Democrats then refusing to negotiate until after the government reopened.
  • Gillespie: "If [Democrats] look back through history, remember those times, they'll remember...that was through the Senate." (24:27)
• Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries:
  • Jeffries calls for bipartisan cooperation but insists spending bills must lower costs, not raise them by cutting ACA tax credits. (24:36)
• No Easy Off-Ramps:
  • Gillespie (and others) doubt a top-level political meeting (Trump, Johnson, Jeffries) would change the outcome, as “the president doesn’t necessarily care...he’s not impacted by any of it.” (25:32)
  • Democrats lack a clear strategy to escape the shutdown trap.

7. Former Speaker Pro Tem Patrick McHenry Analysis (31:01-42:49)

• Two Years Since "Vacate the Chair":
  • Reflects on the ousting of Kevin McCarthy as Speaker, noting "the dynamics have so shifted."
  • The House—now having passed a clean CR—hands action to the Senate due to filibuster rules.
• Predicted Resolution Mechanics:
  • “You will have a clean reopen vote...Democratic submission to reopen the government...Then...a willingness...to extend some of the Obamacare provisions...not the full policy. I think that’s the end point.” (34:10)
• Pain as Negotiating Tool:
  • McHenry: “How do you get submission? Pain. Pain. Pain...Pain on federal employees. Russ Vote has a plan of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic senators and...constituencies.” (35:31)
  • Cites real-world impact as necessary to force movement, predicting that Democratic politicians and their base will only come to the table once the pain is sufficiently acute.
  • OMB Director Russ Vote’s “reaper” video exemplifies the administration’s aggressive tactics.
• Power Shifts and Authority in Shutdown:
  • Shutdowns greatly expand the executive’s power, which Democrats have long warned about under Trump, yet now must contend with: “A government shutdown under operation of law gives enormous authority to the director of OMB...and in that silence, they’re going to fill the void.” (38:13)
• Ultimate Prognosis:
  • “It's more of a wrestling match for submission...Everyone thinks they're winning.” (42:27)
  • “The light at the end of the tunnel could also be a train.” (39:15)

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• Laura Davison on Polls & Pressure:

  “The early polls have shown that Republicans are still taking...the majority of the heat for this. If that flips...that's gonna cause a lot of people to start to wobble.” (03:10)

• Senator Todd Young on the Crisis:

  "We're still here to help Hoosiers navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the national Democratic Party and their far left donors..." (06:47)

• Joe Mathieu (Host) on the Repetitiveness:

  “They’re going to vote again. I mean, this is truly Groundhog Day at this point.” (17:35)

• Senator Kevin Kramer’s Surprise:

  "We're in such an odd position where the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on a government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life..." (18:47, again at 30:04)

• Maura Gillespie on ACA Messaging:

  "They're making it seem so scary and so immediate. And the facts are that the subsidies don't expire until the end of the year and...are largely for the insurance companies..." (19:55)

• Patrick McHenry on Shutdown Tactics:

  “Submission. Submission. And how do you get submission? Pain. Pain. Pain...Pain on federal employees.” (35:31) “Russ Vote has a plan of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic senators and in particular and Democratic constituencies.” (35:35) “Everyone thinks they're winning...We will see who wins in this thing. But it's more of a wrestling match for submission." (42:27-42:49)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Opening & State of Play: 00:55–06:00
• Laura Davison Analysis: 02:23–06:01
• Senator Todd Young Interview: 06:47–16:19
• Sen. Kevin Kramer’s Outlook: 18:47–19:55, 30:04–30:31
• Maura Gillespie’s Commentary: 19:55–27:28
• Patrick McHenry Retrospective & Analysis: 31:01–42:49

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Tone & Atmosphere

The episode maintains an urgent yet battle-weary tone, echoing bipartisan frustration. The hosts keep the conversation brisk, with flashes of gallows humor (“This is truly Groundhog Day...”), insider candor, and colorful metaphors about pain and submission in politics. With little progress in view, the underlying message is that of a cynical—and cyclical—Washington wrestling with the same issues, personalities, and power dynamics as shutdowns past.

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For Listeners

If you haven’t listened, this episode is a comprehensive, candid look at the many layers of a government shutdown—policy, power plays, personal consequences, and historical echoes. It offers on-the-ground assessments from policymakers and strategists, and doesn’t shy from highlighting the brinkmanship, the “moral high ground” arguments, and the sense, from all parties, of a game with high stakes and no clear winners—yet.

Transcript

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[Joe Matthew]

There's going to be more voting today, but it does not look like that's going to break anything here. In fact, we're going to likely go through the weekend and start things on Monday. With the government shut down. About a half hour from now, we expect voting on the continuing resolutions that you've already seen voting on. We've had three rounds. Today is the fourth and as we heard earlier from the leadership, they don't expect anything to change. Speaker Mike Johnson, Senate Leader John Thune speaking to reporters earlier today. Let's listen.

[Patrick McHenry]

They did it 13 times during the Biden administration in the previous four years, but suddenly they won't do it. So everybody has to ask themselves why. It has nothing to do with health care. The subsidies that they're saying is the issue is not the issue. That is an issue for the end of the year. They have an opportunity, a fourth opportunity, fourth time today, fourth time to vote to open up the government and allow us to do the rest of the work that the American people expects us to do. They have taken hostage the federal government and by extension, the American people.

[Joe Matthew]

We're going to see that fourth round before this hour is out together. And we'll have our eyes on the Senate floor ahead of our conversation with Senator Todd Young, who's going to join us live from Capitol Hill. Our friend Laura Davison is with us, deputy bureau chief here for Bloomberg in Washington. Laura, it's great to see you. The speaker says this is not about Obamacare subsidies, that that's an end of year issue. Democrats are telling us no open enrollment's begun, notices are going out. This is a now issue. It doesn't sound like we're any closer to A deal.

[Laura Davison]

We are three days in and we are no closer. And it's very likely in three more days we will still be at this very same spot because they're going to go home for the weekend, come back Monday night is when they actually get back into the Capitol. They'll then start talking. They'll have maybe a little sense how constituents are feeling at home about this. So you may seem some Democrats who have a little bit more cold feet, but it's very likely that, you know, this is, you know, this time next week, we'll still be having a similar.

[Joe Matthew]

Ish conversation this time next week. So, okay, so we're beyond a week at that point. When does the pressure become too great for Democrats to, to hold out? We heard references to a jailbreak. I think it was Dan Sullivan who was talking about that the other evening, the Republican from Alaska. They need what, five more, Pick off five more Democrats. Is that possible in lieu of a deal?

[Laura Davison]

At some point that will have to become possible. They'll have to get to some sort of resolution. But whether that is, you know, a week or two or we're talking something more like a month, that's a very different thing. There's two key indicators to watch here. One, what does the polling look like right now? The early polls have shown that Republicans are still taking the vast majority, or not the vast majority, but the majority of the heat for this. If that flips and suddenly Democrats are now being blamed, that's gonna cause a lot of people to start to wobble. Additionally, is how much of is this healthcare issue becoming a thing? Those notices just went out early this week telling people what their premium spikes are gonna be. So that hasn't really trickled down. People haven't really realized if they're the people that are gonna be affected. So that will also matter of how much that those key areas, no mass.

[Joe Matthew]

Layoffs, at least not yet announced formally by the White House. The intention has been displayed in the memo that we've been talking about this week from Russ Vote. Are you surprised we haven't heard from the president? He's got nothing public on the schedule today. He could own this little bit of a news vacuum that we have on a Friday, couldn't he?

[Laura Davison]

He, he absolutely could. We saw him a little bit earlier, you know, come, you know, when he truth and said, hey, he wants to have this, this Gaza deal done by Sunday, but on shutdown, he's been keeping a little bit more of an arms length here. You know, I think there's, there's Some risk, you know, particularly as he moves into, you know, mass layoffs or some of these funding cuts, you know, we saw with Doge job cuts were not popular. So this is something that Rose Boat. He's letting him kind of take the image as he withdog. He let Elon Musk sort of be there. You've also seen J.D. vance, the Vice president, who's really been out, you know, after the meeting Monday at the White House with congressional leaders. It was Vance out there talking to reporters at the briefing earlier this week. Also, Vance, he was on doing the rounds of shows the morning after the shutdown took effect. So you see Trump, you know, sort of recognizing that there may be a political risk here and wants to put other people in those key spots.

[Joe Matthew]

I guess as the president of the Senate, there's something to be said for that. And that, you know, the line from J.D. vance is, I'll go up there to break a tie. As soon as you guys are ready, let me know. Does that mean his star is rising at this moment?

[Laura Davison]

This is certainly an opportunity for him to show that he can lead. You know, Trump has not come out and said, yes, he is my handpicked successor. He's kind of making Vance work for it. That's what we're seeing here. And a fance, you know, sort of stumbles and falls. This could, you know, be a data point that Trump then uses when he, you know, in a couple of years, presumably is going to say, here's, here's my guy that I want to, to be the candidate in 2028 I mentioned.

[Joe Matthew]

We're going to talk to Todd Young next. When these votes take place, will they look just like the last one, or could we see a Democrat or two fall in the mix?

[Laura Davison]

It's likely that we'll see those Democrats all move together versus, you know, having one or two and having it be sort of a slow trickle. You know, never say never. The Senate is a crazy place and stuff happens last minute all the time. You know, if we will start to know if there's going to be some sort of jailbreak or a mini jailbreak if they keep this vote open for a long time, if there's a bunch of action on the floor, if senators are huddling, that should all start to get excited that there may be at least a little bit of incremental movement.

[Joe Matthew]

Great to see you as always. Thank you so much. Laura Davison steering our coverage here in Washington in the midst of a government shutdown. And yeah, we're on day three here ahead of the voting. We are joined. It's a pleasure to have Republican Senator Todd Young from Indiana with us just outside the Capitol. Before he heads back inside the building to get involved here, it's a treat to welcome the senator to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Senator Young, I've never had a chance to talk to you and I appreciate your joining our conversation today. I want to point everybody, before we get to all the politics here, a tweet that you put out there. The federal government is currently shut down. Europa. My team and I are still working and available to Hoosiers if you have questions or need assistance. Our contact information is below. To what extent, if at all, is this impacting constituent services? Is your staff still intact?

[Senator Todd Young]

Well, we're still intact, Joe. We're still here to help Hoosiers navigate what is unfortunately a manufactured chaos by the national Democratic Party and their far left donors and supporters. Chuck Schumer has decided to go with the far left on this rather than with the American people. He wants to shut down our federal government because he's mad at Donald Trump and he understands that so many other Democrats are mad at Donald Trump. And so it's my job and the job of other Republicans to explain to the American people that whatever substantive issues the Democrats say that they want to work, those are best work on. Worked on when government is funded, when government is still operating, and worked on through what we call regular order, which is a structured conversation so that we can work through substantive disagreements. This is always what the Senate has done at its best moments. Unfortunately, this is one of its worst moments in recent memory.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, God knows we haven't seen actual regular order in a long time. I'm still threatening to break out the regular order T shirts one of these days here, Senator, so don't give us a reason. But I wonder, I don't know if you heard my conversation with Laura. We're hearing from Democrats that this, the issue of Obamacare subsidies is not an end of year issue, as the speaker and John Thune have said. But it's a now issue because the open enrollment has begun, the notices are going out, and people might drop off the rolls if they think they can't afford health care. Is that a concern of yours?

[Senator Todd Young]

Well, it absolutely is. November 1st is, to be precise, when open enrollment begins. So we really only have a few weeks here and realistically, a couple of weeks because insurance companies will require a bit of time to prepare the new enrollment packages. So a couple of weeks to make any sort of substantive changes, the very changes that Democrats say they're shutting down the government for. So if indeed this is really why they want to shut down the government, let's come to the table. Let's open up government as the polling indicates the American people want, and let's deal with whatever challenges we have like adults.

[Joe Matthew]

What's going to happen at the vote coming up here? You're going to be on the floor in a moment. Are you hearing from any of your Democratic colleagues that they might join John Fetterman and others?

[Senator Todd Young]

Well, I'm not particularly optimistic. I think most of the predictions are that the couple of brave Democrats who decided to vote affirmatively to keep government open yesterday, their numbers won't be increasing. But I hope that's different. I hope they continue to listen to their constituents. I think your previous analysts assessment that it may take several days before things change and then they could change all at once is probably accurate. In the meantime, myself and others will be taking our case to the American people that this is an entirely manufactured crisis. It was brought to us by Chuck Schumer and we have to return to a more orderly form of government.

[Joe Matthew]

You worried about the potential for cuts that Russ Vote is talking about? The president's up with a video on Truth Social that's Don't Fear the Reaper. He's got Russ Vogt up there with a with the SIF and the whole thing. How concerned are you that you're going to see furloughs turn into permanent layoffs in your state?

[Senator Todd Young]

Well, listen, Russ Vogt and the president have made threats before. I think they have to be taken seriously. I'll continue to do my job, but know that we have some strong personalities. And for those who have concerns about their threats, if the government isn't open, I think they should take those concerns very seriously. I think Democrats who have prided themselves over the years as the party of government should also take those concerns very seriously.

[Joe Matthew]

Is vote weaponizing the shutdown? You could have this thing open, as we've established, in any number of days here with a deal. Why talk about permanent layoffs and closing agencies now?

[Senator Todd Young]

What the Democrats are effectively asking us to do is to undo some commonsensical changes that we made to the one big beautiful bill, to our health care in this country. I don't believe that Obamacare is structured in a thoughtful way. I still believe that there are better ways to deliver health care than through highly expensive Obamacare plans. So as it relates to health care, I think we need to deal with root causes. Therefore, I remain very much open to dialogue with my Democrats about how we can come together and effect those sorts of changes. But instead, what they've done here is, is they're trying to negotiate with Republicans and with the American people effectively under duress. And that's a precedent we don't want to be establishing.

[Joe Matthew]

We spent the last couple of evenings up in the Senate, Senator, and spent some time with potential dealmakers, including Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen. We talked with Tom Cole on the other side. Are we going to see a gang emerge here? Maybe you were part of some of these conversations on the floor. And I realize we're not talking about anything led to by Thune or the speaker, but just some organic conversations that are taking place between Republicans and Democrats to move the needle on this. Is that how this ends?

[Senator Todd Young]

Well, I listen, I'm here to make law. I'm here to effect positive policy changes. I share, I guess you could say, the president's zeal for cutting deals from time to time. But those have to be good deals, and they have to be deals that are arrived at under the right conditions. And what this shutdown situation is all about is, is a manufactured crisis so that Democrats can get more leverage over policy. And more importantly, they want to send a message. They want to send a message that they're fighting at a time when they effectively have no power because the American people rejected their platform and their candidates last election.

[Joe Matthew]

So you're going to go home this weekend, we understand. I don't know if you're literally going home, but you won't be in session and voting this weekend. Is that part of the strategy from Leader Thune here to let people go home, think about this, maybe hear from constituents what's going to take place Saturday and Sunday.

[Senator Todd Young]

Yeah, I think what. What Leader Thune is recognizing is that this is effectively in the hands of Chuck Schumer and his members, and they're going to have to make a decision. In the meantime, we could be observers of this farce and stay around Capitol Hill weekend as they try and figure out how to restore some measure of order and credibility to Senate operations in the near term. But we think they can make those decisions among their own tribe on their own time. We're going to go out and many of us go back to our states and take care of other responsibilities.

[Joe Matthew]

There's a big story for us here today at Bloomberg and that we do not have a jobs report because of this shutdown. The BLS data is not out publicly here. I know you're on the Finance Committee, and I'm wondering how Concerned you are about the interruption in data collection and data posting here. Senator Elizabeth Warren, for instance, is calling for the release of that data, saying surely it's been compiled, why can't we see it? Would you support releasing the jobs report?

[Senator Todd Young]

Yeah, yeah, that sounds reasonable to me. Government, one of the important things we do to ensure that our economy is able to run as smoothly and as efficiently as possible is to produce data. For example, we need to know that we're actually creating enough jobs right now to keep up with the increase in the labor force. So that's one of many things we need to be looking at as people look to deploy capital and make important business decisions. And I think all the more reason that the Democrats should be opening up the government so that that data can be out there.

[Joe Matthew]

I guess we're in for a delayed release here. Lastly, Senator and I appreciate all the time that you've given us today. You're also on the Intel Committee. Right before you joined us, Secretary Pete Hegseth told us that the administration has struck and we see the video here. The thing is totally destroyed. Another boat that they say is being run by narco terrorists bringing drugs to America took place right off the coast of Venezuela. Are you comfortable with this continued action and would you support strikes against cartels inside Venezuela?

[Senator Todd Young]

I think Congress needs to get involved in this space. I am a member of the Intelligence Committee. I was formerly a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. That latter committee has jurisdiction over our war powers. I would encourage that committee to hold public hearings about this matter. And if a vote is required, a vote to authorize military force, that's something that falls within Congress's area of responsibility under the Constitution. I've worked with Senator Kaine, who's been perhaps the most visible and thoughtful member on the Democratic side as it relates to these matters. And I understand that in coming days we will be voting on a war powers resolution related to the first strike. So let me be strong on this. I think there's no more fundamental response responsibility Congress has than to make sure that their elected representatives can be held accountable for our decisions to go to war.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, I know you're speaking as well as a Marine and a graduate of the United States Naval Academy. Thank you for joining us today on Bloomberg. That's Todd Young, the Republican from Indiana. And a pleasure to have you here as part of our conversation today. On balance of power. Stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

Sun is on the Capitol dome, but not a lot is going to be happen under it. Well, they're going to vote again. I mean, this is truly Groundhog Day at this point and I guess there's some strategy behind it with John Thune bringing the continuing resolutions, the D version, the R version to the floor again, knowing that they will fail. And it's part of the point that he has been making as we move along. Just to review, by the way, what we heard from Jack Fitzpatrick, who's a pretty balanced guy, pressure, anger and resentment. There's no light at the end of the tunnel. If you are already not feeling great about things, you've got Jack to give you a reality check and maybe Maura Gillespie will give us one as well, as we are joined in a moment by the Republican strategist following a series of conversations that we had this week in the Senate. By the way, we're going back up there this evening and we'll have the latest for you on what is going to likely be the same story, that these bills keep failing and the government's going to go through the weekend closed. I talked about it with Senator Republican Senator Kevin Kramer, who invoked moral high ground at this stage of the game. Here's what he said.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

First of all, we're in such an odd position where the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on a government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life and I've been here a while, and where Democrats are in a more awkward position than they generally are, to be fair, because funding the government is not that hard generally for Democrats to do. But we have the Trump factor. You have the far left factor with Senator Schumer, which is complicated their situation a little bit.

[Joe Matthew]

The gentleman from North Dakota, pretty honest on that, huh? He's surprised to be sitting in this position where he feels as a Republican, like he has the moral high ground and thus the standoff. Maura Gillespie has been through this from inside the speaker's office. Before you rewind to 2011, remember the Obamacare shutdown. That was John Boehner's problem then. Of course, it's Mike Johnson's problem now. But kind of ironic that we're still chewing on this Obamacare thing around a shutdown, isn't it? Maura is the founder of bluestack Strategies and joins us now live on Bloomberg. It's great to have you back, Maura. Is the senator right? Do Republicans have the moral high ground?

[Maura Gillespie]

Well, when you talk about the aca, the Obamacare bill and the messaging around it, yes. I mean, the subsidiary subsidies don't actually expire until the end of the year. So kind of making this a, this has to happen now or millions of people will lose their health care today. You know, they're making it seem so scary and so immediate. And the facts are that the subsidies don't expire until the end of the year and the subsidies are largely for the insurance companies, you know, So I think there's a bit of a messaging issue for the Democrats because they know that and Chuck Schumer certainly knows that. But he's getting pressure from the people from the far left of his flank. And because of what happened in March, he had to make this stand. And he knows that it's not a winning strategy, but it's what he has to do to maintain his leadership post.

[Joe Matthew]

What's your take on the way Speaker Johnson has comported himself? Because he certainly seems to be in lockstep with John Thune, and they are both in lockstep with the White House on this. How important is that bicameral unity? Having been in the speaker's office in a situation like this yourself, it's very important.

[Maura Gillespie]

It's also critical that they maintain a level of seriousness. I was a little bit disappointed with Speaker Johnson's press conference earlier where he said, you know, they're just having fun over there, but this is it's not a funny matter. Well, that's a very conflicting message because it's not funny to shut down the government and to cost jobs and what's happening over at the White House. While, yes, the strategy of being in lockstep about the plan, about not negotiating, to have as clean CR go through and then have conversations about things like the ACA subsidies, that's a separate matter, but in no shape or form do I think that Thune or Johnson should be supportive of what President Trump is doing on his social media accounts and JE Vance standing by the President. I don't think that that's helpful. I think it's pretty egregious to do so. And so, policy wise, yes, they should be in lockstep, but messaging wise, I'm concerned.

[Joe Matthew]

All right, well, that's a good answer. It has been pretty wild watching the Truth Social feed with the mariachi bands and the rest of it plan around Hakeem Jeffries, who's been doing his own responding on social media to J.D. vance and others. That's, I guess, the noise around this whole situation. How about the actual business with the White House threatening mass layoffs now? I think you were referring to that just now. And also pulling infrastructure money from some blue states to try to make a point. If you're the speaker of the House, do you have any input on. On what money is doled out to? Where should the president be talking with congressional leaders about this? Because it doesn't sound like he is?

[Maura Gillespie]

I would say yes, but we're not in normal times when we work with President Trump, he doesn't operate by the rules. And the reason being is that he doesn't necessarily have to. Earlier this year, he scored a very big win with the Supreme Court, giving him presidential immunity. And he took that and thought, I can do whatever I want, because in reality, he kind of can. And. And Mike Johnson has lost a lot of the control that he had when he got that gavel. He really gave it over to President Trump. And, you know, and a lot of times we look at the Senate to kind of be the adult in the room. And I do have hope that Senator John Thune will, you know, regain that, you know, responsibility and really hold firm with it. I actually thought during this whole conversation about, you know, the three things the Democrats went into the shutdown or said that they wanted to avoid a shutdown. The Obamacare subsidies, the Medicare issues, and the one big beautiful bill, and then the rescissions issues with President Trump. The third one is probably what they should have gone with, because I do think that the senators feel pretty strong about their role and their responsibility laid out in the Constitution and what their chamber is supposed to be responsible for. And so they could have had a bigger victory in that sense. But it does make me think back to 2013. You know, this is almost in a flip way of when that shutdown was happening. You know, Harry Reid lamented that he wanted a clean cr. President Obama refused to even talk to Republicans because they were threatening the shutdown. And so he refused to negotiate with the threat of the shutdown being there, and refused to take any of their amendments or additions or revisions into consideration until the shutdown was over. And so I think Democrats know that. And if they look back through history, remember those times, they'll remember that that's how it more or less worked out, was through the Senate.

[Joe Matthew]

Fascinating. We heard from Hakeem Jeffries this morning. He has been out there to a limited extent, showed up on msnbc. Here's what the Democratic leader of the House had to say.

[Senator Todd Young]

Listen, we'll sit down in good faith.

[Joe Matthew]

We need to reopen the government in this Trump Republican government shutdown.

[Senator Todd Young]

And we can't find a bipartisan path.

[Joe Matthew]

Toward a spending agreement.

[Senator Todd Young]

But that spending agreement has to actually.

[Joe Matthew]

Meet the needs of the American people, people in terms of their health, their.

[Senator Todd Young]

Safety and their economic well being, particularly.

[Joe Matthew]

As it relates to driving down the high cost of living and lowering health care costs, as opposed to driving millions of Americans into medical bankruptcy because of the Republicans refusal to extend the Affordable Care act tax credits. Maura I remember Speaker Boehner going head to head with Nancy Pelosi, and it was a clash of the titans on a pretty regular basis on Capitol Hill. How's this Democratic leader doing in this stressful moment in dealing with Mike Johnson? He's been at the White House once. It was the only time he's met with Donald Trump. Should that meeting happen again or doesn't it matter?

[Maura Gillespie]

I don't know that it's going to necessarily change anything. I do think that the Democrats, and they knew this going into it, they didn't have a plan of how to get out of it again. When you have a president that doesn't necessarily care about what happens because he's not impacted by any of it, how do you negotiate with that? How do you negotiate with someone who does not see any issues with making a mockery of you while people are genuinely hurting, while threatening to cut people from the workforce while relishing in that fact? And Speaker Johnson can say that Russ Vaught and Donald Trump are not enjoying this. That's inaccurate. Russ Vaught has wanted to do this for the better part of a decade. And, and this demonizing of the federal workforce I have, I take great problem with, because it's not as though being part of the federal government is necessarily a glamorous job. Also, the people who are working for these members, these Senate leaders, Speaker Johnson, President Trump, they are federal workers and so remembering that they're not, they're the ones who are going to hurt from this most immediately. But the longer we keep this government shutdown going, the more it trickles out. And too Harding, everyday Americans, whether you're traveling, there's a whole host of things that we could go into. But I just, I think that they don't have a plan to get out of it. And while their point about the subsidies and the, you know, the health care issues. Listen, Obamacare is not a private system. It didn't work out the way they hoped it was going to. And that's the reality we're facing. But constantly pushing things to the very end into the deadlines has got us into these problems more often over the last decade than they should have. And, and if we just had members of Congress that actually wanted to address these issues in a timelier fashion and not wait until the last minute when your back's up against the wall, then we wouldn't be here. And I think that that's what people should be really harking on is, okay, we have how many weeks until the end of the year? Let's come up with a plan. Let's get out of the shutdown and come up with a plan. Start getting to work.

[Joe Matthew]

I don't know if you've been to Sea Island Resort, Maura, but this weekend the NRSC has quite the retreat planned. Golf, pickleball, fishing, shooting, drinking wine. Should that be canceled? Would John Boehner have allowed that? Did we lose Mora? Oh, my God. Was that convenient? Saved by the Internet, Bell. Let us know your thoughts via email. Maura Gillespie, bluestack Strategy. Somebody was Is she at Sea Island Resort? If you were with us on YouTube, it looked like a pretty nice spot. Wherever she was, maybe we can do the show there. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. That's kind of funny. I mean, what are you going to do in a life situation like this? Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

11:30, day three of the government shutdown and just moments from now, it looks like we're going to get our first. There's a live view of the Senate floor if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. Everyone seems to know how this is going to end. They expect the vote to be just the same as it was two days ago. Not enough Democrats on board, so it will fail. Then they go home for the weekend knowing that that was a late decision here this week by Leader Thune, the Republican leader in the Senate. Send everybody home. Let them stew. Let them hear from constituents. Think about what you've done here. We talked about this a couple nights ago as we've been in the Senate over the course of this week talking with members about their decisions. Kevin Krame, the senator from North Dakota, invoking the moral high ground when it comes to this standoff. Listen to what he said.

[Senator Kevin Kramer]

First of all, we're in such an odd position where the Republicans actually have some moral high ground on a government shutdown, which I've never seen in my life and I've been here a while, and where Democrats are in a more awkward position than they generally are, to be fair, because funding the government's not that hard generally for Democrats to do. But we have the Trump factor. You have? Yes, the far left factor with Senator Schumer, which is complicated their situation a little bit.

[Joe Matthew]

Now is Wednesday. Yeah. Nothing's changed since then. Here we are on Friday and it's kind of interesting. I didn't know this when I woke up this morning, but the man who's about to join us just reminded me of what today is. If you want to just connect all the dots on passing or not passing a CR in this case, a Biden CR. It was the 3rd of October, I believe, two years ago. Patrick McHenry, that the speaker of the House was dispatched. That was a day that changed your life.

[Patrick McHenry]

It was, I was reminded Speaker McCarthy called me as I was coming into the studio today. He says, you know what this is? And look, that's what it is. I'm not as angry as I was that day. But Speaker McCarthy has done quite well since leaving Congress. He's working in the business community. He's got a fabulous life and remains a dear friend Even despite the fact that they're going to keep this going.

[Joe Matthew]

This is where CC has invoked the video from October 3rd of Chairman, then Speaker Pro Tem McHenry taking it all out on that gavel.

[Patrick McHenry]

But it is two years ago and McCarthy was vacated by a small group of people led by Matt Gaetz. Yes, of course, small group of Republicans because he had passed a clean continuing resolution.

[Joe Matthew]

Here we are again.

[Patrick McHenry]

Here we are two years ahead and it's Republicans that are responsible party passing a clean continuing resolution. The dynamics have so shifted on this. And today is a fascinating day. So we're going to continue to watch the Senate. The action on Capitol Hill is on the Senate side. The House did its job. They passed clean, continual resolution. The Senate is going to just wrestle with a date change and continue to vote on this. And Leader Thune, I think, is doing a masterful job of being disciplined as leader and just saying, well, you're going to be accountable on a, on a regular basis, multiple times a week for your words and your actions. To his Democratic colleagues, Chuck Schumer and a large enough group to pass it on the Democratic side voted for this same policy back in March because of the flak that Leader Schumer got in particular from his Democratic base. He was in a political box. Leader Jeffries has a very different set of circumstances. He just wants to become speaker of the House. And as minority leader, that's kind of your obligation. Get the majority so you can be relevant. The House is not a relevant thing in this, in this conversation. Action is in the Senate on how the reopening occurs because of the filibuster. And so the filibuster is the vote that they're trying to break right now. They need 60 votes for that and they need a few more Democrats to participate in it. But this is playing out a very, very bizarre and different way than previous shutdowns. It's seemingly hasn't had a dramatic effect here in D.C. it seems like it's much to do about nothing now. It's kind of playing out in the body of politic, which is different than previous shutdowns.

[Joe Matthew]

It does feel different. And I will note for the record, Patrick McHenry said the last time you were here, when we said just wait for October chaos, you said, you have no idea the insanity that we're in for. And here we are. And that begs the question, are there off ramps? Are we doing this? For weeks we talked to Gene Shaheen and some other potential dealmakers, and I know that the House isn't in the mix right now, but we talked to Tom Cole as well. I say, like we're ready to make a deal. We're talking. We're actually not that far apart. Do you see it that way? Well, these are very informal.

[Patrick McHenry]

These are informal talks not led by the leaders.

[Joe Matthew]

This is on the floor. Yeah.

[Patrick McHenry]

This is not, you know, you see Hakeem Jeffries having a press conference yesterday saying nobody's called him.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Patrick McHenry]

Which, which shows he's not relevant to the conversations. Then you see the pack of senators. I think the interesting action is going to be watching the senators have conversations on the Senate floor. There are a couple things that are true. One is I think you will have a clean reopen vote. I think that will be the case. I think the end of this is Democratic submission to reopen the government. Then I think there is a willingness between some Republicans and the White House to extend for a period of time some of the Obamacare provisions that will expire at the end of this year and. But not the full policy. I think that's the end point still that was actually going to be the case regardless of the shutdown, is that there's a reasonableness component within the White House and among congressional Republicans that an extension of these subsidies for another year makes a lot of sense. And that's the Democratic ask, along with a bunch of other things they've added to the list which don't quite fit. But I think there is a modest deal to be had post reopen. Even if they didn't have the government shutdown, that would be the end state for the end of the year.

[Joe Matthew]

So how do you get to the deal then if they need the deal to reopen the government?

[Patrick McHenry]

Submission. Submission. And how do you get submission? Pain.

[Joe Matthew]

Pain.

[Patrick McHenry]

Pain.

[Joe Matthew]

What does that look like?

[Patrick McHenry]

Well, it looks like pain on federal employees. I think Russ Vote has a plan of action that is intense and intensely painful for Democratic senators and in particular and Democratic constituencies. He has enormous power as OMB director and he's going to use it.

[Joe Matthew]

So that's not just a threat.

[Patrick McHenry]

Oh, no, it's not a cuts are coming. It's. It's real. And he has an active imagination and massive power. And together I think he's going to do things different going into next week that are different than this week.

[Joe Matthew]

You see the Russ Vote is the reaper video which passed the president posted last night. He's got the big cloak and the sith and he's doesn't look like that's something that.

[Patrick McHenry]

The memes are amazing. Completely Amazing. Of this fight, which takes it to an Internet level of craziness and zani.

[Joe Matthew]

Mariachi bands and crews.

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Oh gosh.

[Patrick McHenry]

But, but all that, all that is to say the, the Democratic, Democratic constituencies are going to feel pain and Democrat politicians are going to feel pain in order to come to the table to have a clean reopen vote. That's what happened in 2013 when Republicans shut down the government over what, health care over Obamacare. And here we are 11amazing. 12 years later, same issue set flipped constituencies. It's a really bizarre thing happening.

[Laura Davison]

Right.

[Joe Matthew]

So why wait on the cuts then? Or is, is John Thune, are the leaders saying, hey, give us a minute, White House, because this isn't going to help anybody if we do see furloughs turned into layoffs, does that make the, the trust quotient even worse?

[Patrick McHenry]

I think so. And, but it also is a ratcheting effect of pain.

[Joe Matthew]

All right.

[Patrick McHenry]

And, and frankly. And a couple of things that I think are interesting here. One is the power dynamic on Capitol Hill between Schumer and Jefferies and how that plays out. The second piece is omb and, and I think that's a substantial piece of, of action and activity. And then, and then, then the political calculus by the White House on the ways that they can execute pain on their Democratic opposition. Those are the things we're going to see play out and how they're going to ratchet down the impact on Democrats on Capitol Hill.

[Joe Matthew]

Democratic senators, we're seeing some cuts already in terms of funding for blue states. You saw the transit money for Chicago, New York losing billions of dollars. Thom Tillis, who you know well from North Carolina Senator, said earlier to Bloomberg, I think that digs us into a deeper hole. I think if you do that, you're going to create a bad faith environment. They need to be very judicious. Would you agree?

[Patrick McHenry]

They need to be judicious. But the Democrats have made a choice here. And what they have done is argue for years that Donald Trump is an authoritarian and he will seek to claim power and not respect checks and balances. A government shutdown under operation of law gives enormous authority to the director of OMB to carry out wide ranging policy decisions. And the law is either on the side of the OMB director or silent. And in that silence, they're going to fill the void. So my Democratic friends are saying an authoritarian and they're taking actions to give him more enhanced power over the federal, of the federal workforce and the size and scope of government. Yeah, it's an extraordinary thing that I don't think they've quite thought through. And I think next week you'll see this discussed more on the Democratic side.

[Joe Matthew]

Okay, so that sounds then like you see light at the end of the tunnel. If they're having that conversation next week, are we reopen the week later?

[Patrick McHenry]

The light at the end of the tunnel could also be a train. So we have to be very careful about this. The way these things, these shutdowns work is that. That, you know, it could end today. It could end in this vote series on Capitol Hill today. And we're gonna have to follow this day by day, hour by hour, because it is that fluid. And could end Monday. It could be Thanksgiving. And Thanksgiving. Yeah. It's as wide ranging as that.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow. So you're not gonna try to predict anything here. What do you think of the Republican line that we keep hearing that this is all about? And you walked right up to it. Chuck Schumer afraid to be primaried by aoc. It's as you can fit it on a bumper sticker. I hear it from almost every Republican lawmaker that we talk to, and most of them don't know Chuck Schumer very well. Is that just an easy story to tell, or is that what's going on here?

[Patrick McHenry]

I think there's a serious story to tell on that matter. And we saw how bludgeoned Schumer was coming out of March. We saw the flak that he took.

[Joe Matthew]

A lot of people saw a shutdown.

[Patrick McHenry]

We saw the difference between Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer in that moment, that divide. And they live like a burrow apart. Right. An odd thing for them to be separated then. We see them linked hand in hand with this shutdown now. And you think, well, I think that shows that Schumer is capitulating. The challenge here, though, is that Hakeem Jeffries does not need to be a part of any of the deal making to reopen the government.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah.

[Patrick McHenry]

Doesn't have to. You saw Speaker Johnson and the leadership team in the House produce a continuing resolution without. Without Democratic. Without the need for Democratic votes in the Senate because the filibuster. Schumer's gonna have to participate in that. So at the end of the day, it's not gonna be a good outcome for him. He's picked a fight that he cannot win with his Democratic base now, which is a, I think, a political mistake on his part.

[Joe Matthew]

This is why the clock is going to be ticking. How do you peel off a couple of more Democrats? We've already Seen three roll over here. Angus King caucuses with Democrats, part of the group. You don't need that many more. And then you don't have to make a deal to reopen the government. Is that possible? Because John Thune have the skill?

[Patrick McHenry]

No, John Thune has the skill and he's got the discipline. He is. He and his leadership team have had enormous discipline. Discipline and not taking the Democratic bait and also going out and messaging. Continue to talk in a very disciplined way.

[Joe Matthew]

Should you meet with Chuck Schumer?

[Patrick McHenry]

There's no need to.

[Joe Matthew]

No need to.

[Patrick McHenry]

No need to.

[Joe Matthew]

Isn't it good politics, though, just for the picture?

[Patrick McHenry]

Nope.

[Joe Matthew]

No.

[Patrick McHenry]

No. Because at that point, the only way you get out of this shutdown is the way Republicans got out of the shutdown with Obama in 2013, which is agree to reopen the government and then you negotiate thereafter. What happened in 2013 after that? We reopened government. There were modest but significant changes to Obamacare as a direct impact. But that was separating time optically from the shutdown. And that was the only way you could have the conversation. We're in a similar situation here.

[Joe Matthew]

We've got less than a minute. Is Kevin Kramer right? You've got moral high ground, which isn't always the case for Republicans on a shutdown.

[Patrick McHenry]

Everyone thinks they're winning.

[Joe Matthew]

They sure do.

[Patrick McHenry]

This is the reason why the, this, the shutdown is so different.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah.

[Patrick McHenry]

My Democratic friends think that they have the high moral ground. My Republican friends, they think they have the high moral ground. We will see who wins in this thing. But it's more of a wrestling match for submission.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, right.

[Patrick McHenry]

And down for the count. That's, that's, that doesn't make you feel like this is a moral debate.

[Joe Matthew]

He told us this was going to happen. Patrick McHenry, former Speaker, Pro temp, the former Chairman, House Financial Services, now Bloomberg Politics contributor. Happy anniversary. It's great to have you back here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already. Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at noontime [e-mail].

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