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Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
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Catch us live weekdays at noon and.
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Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
5Pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
We're here with all the famous people indeed at world headquarters in New York, where got a little election that's going to take place tomorrow and that's partly why we are here. Of course, we'll have special election coverage all day long and into the evening on Tuesday here on Bloomberg TV and radio. We put the whole band on the road and we've got a lot more coming this hour. We'll spend some time with Republican Congressman Mike Lawler of New York. He's got some thoughts on this mayoral race and of course on a government shutdown that has now hit day 34. You wouldn't know probably by looking at Wall street, but there's no end in sight here. There is, however, an important development today that came from the White House announcing its intention as of noontime Eastern here that was the deadline to at least partially fund SNAP benefits food stamps that you've been hearing so much concern about. The SNAP program was defunded as of Saturday, knowing as well that Head Start was also on ice Saturday and we saw the open enrollment for Obamacare begin over the weekend. This is partly why we have such an important week here. It's not just the shutdown. It's not only the election tomorrow, also in New York, New Jersey, Virginia, but on Wednesday, arguments before the Supreme Court over the president's use of emergency tariffs. We're not going to get a decision that day, but this will be landmark either way it goes. The president was asked about it on 60 Minutes last evening.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Listen, I think it's one of the biggest decisions in the history of the Supreme Court.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
I wanted to go so badly.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
I just don't want to do anything to deflect the importance of that decision.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
If we don't have tariffs, we don't have national security.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
And the rest of the world would laugh at us because they've used tariffs.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Against us for years, clearly speaking on Air Force One there. And producer James did tell me that in advance. Cece, thank you. He was on 60 Minutes last evening and talked a lot more about this. The question, of course, is what happens if the Supreme Court says that these tariffs are not legal? Are you really going to pay everyone back? We've got a few things to catch up with. Tyler Kendall on, of course, our Washington correspondent back from overseas. She was with the president in South Korea. And back with us now in our Washington bureau. Tyler, it's great to see you. Let's start with the SNAP benefits, a pretty important development here in this government shutdown, right?
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Tyler Kendall (Washington Correspondent)
Exactly. Breaking news, as I know you were just coming to air in the 12pm hour, Joe, the Department of justice saying that it now has enough funding for 50% of food aid benefits through November. This is the SNAP program, the Supplemental Nutrition assistance program. About 1 in 8Americans get aid through this program. The federal government, it costs them about $8 billion per month. Nationwide, they're saying 50%. So we're probably looking at a $4 billion worth of contingency funding here. And as you've been discussing on the program, this was compelled by a pair of federal judges that said that the administration had to look for some sort of solution with this contingency funding. But point they're saying it's partially funded. It is unclear just how much recipients are going to receive and how quickly they will get that money. It looks like it might be replenished sometime later this week, around Wednesday. The federal judge had said that he wanted an update, but at this point, we know that data shows us that many of these families ultimately use the majority of their benefits at the beginning of the month, and it is already delayed.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
It's really interesting that when we talk partial benefits, it doesn't sound like this is terribly sustainable. Do we know how long this contingency fund will have before it runs out?
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Tyler Kendall (Washington Correspondent)
At this point, this ruling only has to do with the month of November. So we're going to be looking if this government shutdown continues on because, Joe, as you well know, this was one of those big pressure points that was on the table November 1st. We kept talking about both for open enrollment, but also for snap. And that is now leading to other questions on what is going to compel lawmakers to ultimately get to the to the table and come up with a firm deal to reopen at the government. Perhaps that will be November 21, the next date that we have our eye on. Of course, when this stopgap measure that the lawmakers keep voting on is supposed to go until it looks like they're going to need a much longer date. Perhaps we'll see some sort of resolution here where we're looking at a longer stopgap and maybe a package of funding bills. There seems to be some murmurs on Capitol Hill about a compromise there. But at this point, those talks are not involving leadership to our awareness at least, it seems like these are bipartisan talks that are happening with rank and file members trying to get some sort of solution. But at this point, Republicans are holding the line. They're not going to negotiate on some of these key provisions, like those Affordable Care act premium tax subsidies that are expiring until the government reopens.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Just quickly, Tyler, while you're still with us, with regard to the Supreme Court arguments on Wednesday over the tariffs, you just heard the president who was talking to reporters on Air Force One. Did he really was he planning to attend? Was that a late decision to not personally go to the arguments?
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Tyler Kendall (Washington Correspondent)
Well, I mean, it sounded like he was going to, though, in that Truth social post last night. He did qualify that he's no longer going to. But this is a really core part of President Trump's economic agenda. Right. And the question here are the legality around those tariffs that were invoked through ieepa, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. President Trump had to declare a national emergency in order to impose them. And those are the questions that I'm looking out for here. One, did President Trump have the legal authority to use IPA to impose tariffs? This has never been been done before. Questions here about whether or not he bypassed Congress, but also whether or not the national emergencies he declared, as you recall, fentanyl on the border for those tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, and then the persistent trade imbalances for the so called reciprocal tariffs, do those meet the legal standard of being a national emergency? It has to be an extraordinary and unusual threat according to the law. So there's a lot at stake here. But, Joe, as you well know, there are other options on the table and officials haven't been shy that they're going to invoke other tariffs using other tools, rules like section 232 or section 301.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Which is why Wall street keeps saying let us know when it's over. Tyler, thank you. Tyler Kendall, live in Washington. We want to get with Bill Hogland. I was really glad to hear Bill was coming on today because I actually think about Bill Hoagland with regard to this shutdown more than he might know Bill is an operative, a former operative from Capitol Hill who was there when things were done differently, when there was something called regular order, when there was courtesy and decorum. And I'm not trying to date you here, Bill Hoagland, but a lot of folks miss those times in Washington. As we prepare to set a record here for shutdown, he's senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center. I'm just wondering where your head is before we get more specific. Have you ever considered a scenario like this before?
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Well, not exactly like it is set up right now. Clearly, the long, the longest shutdown I was involved in was in 95, 96 between the Clinton administration and a Republican Congress led by Speaker Gingrich and Senator Bob do as majority leader. And at least during that shutdown, there was negotiations going on throughout between the leadership in the Congress and the president, President Clinton to work out in a deal. So this is a little different here where we're not, we don't have the negotiations. And that's, this is much different than the past. Further, this is a president who has looked at Congress, I think, and said, Congress, you failed to do your they haven't passed a budget for the upcoming fiscal year. Quite frankly, Congress hasn't done the budget over 13 of the last 25 years. They have not done their appropriation bills on time. And so the president probably correctly says, well, if you guys aren't going to get your work done, I'll do it for you. And this is this unitary president theory that exists is creating this. Well, when Congress doesn't do its work, creates the vacuum and sets this up. So this is much different than the previous shutdowns that I've been in, involved in over the many years.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Well, listen to that from Bill Hoagland. Next time somebody says it's not different, I want to ask you about the nuclear option because the president keeps bringing it up. And I'm pretty sure as an institutionalist, I know how you feel about this. Listen to President Trump from 60 Minutes on killing the Filibuster. Here he is. I think we should do the nuclear option.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
This is a totally different nuclear, by the way, it's called ending the filibuster. You know what? The Republicans have to get tougher. If we end the filibuster, we can do exactly what we want. We're not going to lose power. The theory is, oh, then we'll do it, but then when they get into power someday they'll do it. That's true. But you know what?
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
So you think John here right now?
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
No, I like John Thune. I think he's terrific. But I disagree with him.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
John Thune must have broken into a sweat when he heard that bill. This is a perennial argument around Washington. Nobody ever thinks it's really going to happen. But more folks suggest that the longer this shutdown goes on that it could. Could John Thune be compelled to consider this?
- [09:53]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Well, you mentioned, Joe, that I guess I would be considered an institutionalist going back a long way. And I don't think John Thune would be willing to consider this. Clearly there's a reason why we have this mechanism that we have in terms of the filibuster, as I think you and I have discussed many times before, when, when our founding fathers set this system up, they set a system up of checks and balances. And that's not only checks and balances between the executive and the legislative, it's a checks and balances between the House and Senate. And it's that old story about how Jefferson wrote to Washington during, when he was in Paris and asked why do we have this House and Senate? And the response coming from Washington was that it? And as you know, Tom, I guess he would have said, in Virginia we drink hot tea and we have a saucer and the hot, hot tea in the, in the House is cooled by the saucer of the Senate. Yes, this is tough, but filibusters or 60 votes, super majority votes are necessary to force compromise. And that's. Well, we're not getting that compromise today. I still think it's important that we have that kind of a higher standard to pass major types of legislation. We have done away with the filibuster on a few items, particularly those as it relates to judges. But on major legislative items, I think we still need to maintain the filibuster.
- [11:26]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Donald Trump on truth social, terminate the filibuster. He writes, not just for the shutdown but for everything else. We will get all of our common sense policies approved in parentheses. Voter ID anyone and make America great again. He goes on to write Bill, remember, the Democrats will do it immediately as soon as they get the chance. Do you believe that?
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
No, I don't. I think it be that quite frankly the opposite. If the Democrats may, would, would not, would not want to have the fill. I think the Republicans would not want to have the Democrats do away the filibuster. And so in that particular situation, the Republicans would stymie a filibuster. It's certainly a difficult issue and certainly I can understand the President's position. We want to get things done, want to get it done quickly. But this is Congress. This is a slow deliberative process. I'm sorry it takes time to get legislation done. But this is a big country and requires a lot of deliberation and it requires at the end of the day, as Madison wrote in his Federalist Papers, compromise.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
We're going to get the panel's take on this in just a moment. Bill, before you leave us, do you have any gut check on how long this might go and when do they need to write a new CR? November 21st is in a couple of minutes.
- [12:46]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Certainly. I am of the mindset that if they were to open the government up, and I'm my gut who knows, but my gut is that we have another payday coming up for civil service on Friday. We have military pay coming up. Taking some pressure off of the SNAP program today is helpful, but that's only part partial, as was pointed out by Tyler. Here it is. You're going to continue to keep the pressure going here. We're going to have problems, continue problems with the faa, air traffic control officers. And so I do believe that the pressure will mount such that we get some sort of a agreement maybe within the week or two here at the latest. That's my hope. But who knows? This is a very uncertain time. And I've been told that there are some of there is negotiations going on. As Tyler indicated, they are not with the rank and with the leadership right now, but as soon as the president gets involved here, I do think we're going to be able to get this thing done and move on. But we'll probably have to pass another continuing resolution. Back in the spring, back in the spring, you and I talked about this and I think the next continuing resolution will probably have to take us into early next year.
- [14:04]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Bill Hoagland, great. I'm going to take your optimism and run with it. Bill, it's good to see you. Thank you. From the Bipartisan Policy center in downtown Washington, D.C. let's see how the panel feels. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino are with us. Rick is our Republican strategist partner at Stone Court Capital, and Jeannie, our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. I don't know if you're feeling the optimism right now, Jeannie. As a Democrat, both sides of the aisle seem to think they have the moral high ground. And yeah, I got on a plane yesterday. It took me a lot longer to get to New York than anybody ever could have imagined. We are starting to see different agencies feel impacts on different levels. The SNAP development today is an important one. Does it make you feel like we're getting closer to something?
- [14:51]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
Well, Joe, I'm feeling optimistic because I just got listened to Bill talk about the Federalist Papers and Thomas Jefferson and James. Matt, it fills me with this, so much positive feelings. You know, I think one another aspect of this is that what happens tomorrow at the polls, you know, you were just talking about John TH. Not being willing to take the nuclear option, as the president calls it. Well, if the polls don't look good tomorrow, the results don't look good for Republicans. They are maybe more likely both to stick to their guns on the nuclear option and also to start thinking amongst leadership about ending this thing. Because while Donald Trump is not on the ballot in the midterm, they are and they know what tomorrow portends if the numbers don't look good for them.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Rick, I'm not sure if your mind has changed at all on this, but November 21st is, is coming up pretty quickly here. Even if Democrats, Republicans all got together, there was a big Oval Office meeting, everybody got along, Kumbaya. Wouldn't they need to write a different bill?
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Yeah, I think first of all, having Hoagland on, I mean, he's a Senate sage, right?
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
I mean, like what you're getting there.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Is really good information.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
And I think that's his point that.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
He left us with is the current bill that came out of the House, that resulted in the House leaving town.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
For 30 days is going to have to be redone.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
They're going to have to extend the CR and as he said, probably into next year.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
And so there's a lot of work.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
That'S going to have to be done if and when you can get to a place where you have agreement on ending the, the, the, the, the end of the government period.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Curious to hear what Congressman Mike Lawler has to say about this. Coming up. Jeannie in a remaining 30 seconds. Is that, is that the deal here? It's going to be a full year cross?
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Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
It very well may be. You know, that time is running short now, so they may have to do that. And I trust Bill when he says that that may be where we're heading.
- [16:50]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Bill Hoagland feeling the love. This is great. Then our great panel as well. They're going to be back, by the way. We'll talk with Mike Lawler. The Republican from New York weighs in on the shutdown and on the election here in Manhattan. And then we'll have Rick and Jeannie back to unpack what we heard here. It's only Monday if you can imagine. But of course day 34 of the government shutdown and by the time we get to Wednesday we'll be picking through results and looking towards Supreme Court arguments on the President's tariffs. It's all ahead on the fastest show in politics. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [17:28]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
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- [18:14]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities.
- [18:16]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc.
- [18:20]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Member FINRA and SIPC.
- [18:21]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Crypto trading provided by ZeroHash.
- [18:24]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.
- [18:28]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
- [18:31]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
Catch us live weekdays at noon and.
- [18:33]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
5Pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [18:47]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
We're live in New York and we'll be here for a couple of days with election coverage in store tomorrow evening. Wednesday, as we've been talking about, will resolve back to Washington with arguments before the Supreme Court when it comes to tariffs. We're going to talk about the election here in Manhattan with Congressman Mike Lawler along with of course the shutdown that is now 34 days old. And we got some really important news right as we came to air. The administration responding to the courts. Remember two judges last week compelling the administration to fund at least part of SNAP benefits and the White House says that it will do that, pledging to partially fund food stamps in the throes of this shutdown. Knowing that a lot of states and we've talked with a number of them have been trying to. To take action on their own to bridge the gap here. It's unclear exactly how long that the White House will be able to keep this going. But an important point here on, hopefully the road to reopening. And that's where we start our conversation with the gentleman from New York. Congressman Mike Lawler, Republican, is with us here on the eve of the elections. Congressman, it's good to have you back. Day 34. What does this mean for the state of New York? Having at least some of these food stamps covered? And how long can the administration keep that going?
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Well, assuming they're talking about depleting the emergency fund, that's roughly $6 billion. And food stamps for an entire month under SNAP Benefits is over 9 billion. So, you know, theoretically, this will extend benefits for a few weeks. But again, we shouldn't even be in this situation. This should have been resolved, resolved weeks ago. House Republicans passed the Clean CR back in the middle of September to keep the government funded and open and fully fund SNAP and WIC through November 21st so that we could actually negotiate over the final appropriations package, as well as other issues, including the ACA tax credits. But Democrats, led by Chuck Schumer, voted 14 times to defund SNAP, to defund Wiccan, to make sure that our military, our air traffic controllers, our border patrol agents were not getting paid. So while it's important that we make sure SNAP is funded and deplete the emergency fund, the fact is all of this could be resolved very simply if Senate Democrats would do their job, as they did 13 times under Joe Biden, and vote yes to fund the government.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Yeah. And when we know where you're at on this, Congressman, I just, I wonder, do you believe the polling when it comes to the blame game? Because this does seem to be informing some Democrats decisions on this. The NBC polls, The most recent, 45% of Americans blame Republicans, 33 blame Democrats. Do you buy those numbers?
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Well, this is what's fundamentally wrong. If you're governing by polls, if you're governing based on politics, this is why crap doesn't get done. The fundamental point here is that there's a very simple solution. The clean continuing resolution. Both parties have passed it over the years. There's no reason to shut the government down. All you're doing is creating hardship for the American people. You're using people that rely on benefits like SNAP and wic. As Chuck Schumer said, quote, every day gets better for us. And as Catherine Clark said, this is about leverage. It's wrong I don't care who's, quote, unquote, winning based on the polls. The American people are losing because of the stupidity being played in Washington. Pass the clean cr, fund the government, make sure programs like SNAP and WIC have the resources needed for the American people to put food on their tables. It's not a game.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
You know, we were just talking that.
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
This is, this is what people are focused on, whether or not who's winning in the polls. Who cares? Well, that's not the issue.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
We were just talking to the old Senate sage, Bill Hoagland, before you joined us. I don't know if you heard any of our conversation of the fact that, that the date on the CR could soon begin to be a challenge. Even if Democrats showed up tomorrow and said, hey, we're going to, we're going to do something different here, we start voting or talking, we'd be walking up against a potential shutdown again on November 21st. I know how many times you've made clear that Democrats have voted against this, but at a certain point, the timeline is going to be broken. Right. Do we, do we need to extend that, put a new date on it? How would you. What would be the process in changing that deadline?
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Well, clearly there's going to have to be an additional CR after the November 21 deadline. But in the immediate, they need to end this shutdown. So they need to vote yes on the CR that's been sitting in the Senate for over a month, and then we can focus on an extension whether it's through the end of the year, whether it's into January of next year. I don't think there is support for a full year cross. I think there's a lot of issues that have to be addressed as part of the appropriations process. So I'm not in favor of a full year cr. I think most members are not in favor of a full year cr. We got to get to work and we need to ensure that the government agencies are funded, that the workforce is being paid, that critical programs like SNAP and WIC are fully funded. Let's do our jobs. And that requires passing the clean cross that's been sitting in the Senate for over a month. Then obviously we're going to need to pass an additional CR date to be determined. But the objective should be to, to finish the appropriations work before the end of the year.
- [24:08]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
I have to admit I was surprised to hear Jason Smith, who chairs the Ways and Means Committee, tell us on the air that he supported a full year cr, which gives us a sense of how difficult appropriating has, has become of. Congressman, I want to ask you about, about the mayoral race here in town. President Trump was asked about it on 60 Minutes. You probably heard what he said about Andrew Cuomo. Let's let everyone hear for the sake of our audience. Here's the President on cbs. It's going to be hard for me.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
As the President to give a lot of money to New York because if you have a communist running New York, all you're doing is wasting the money you're sending there. So I don't know that he's one and I'm not a fan of Cuomo one way or the other. But if it's going to be between a bad Democrat and a Communist, I'm going to pick that bad Democrat all the time, to be honest with you.
- [24:59]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Where's your head on this, Congressman? If, as it appears, there's going to be a New York Mayor Mamdani, if that in fact happens, do you worry about federal funding for the city?
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Well, it's interesting to see President Trump and Mike Bloomberg on the same page. I know Mike Bloomberg has supported and endorsed Andrew Cuomo. You know, from my vantage point, it's, it's a little bit of a bridge too far to endorse Andrew Cuomo. For me, so many of the challenges facing New York, from cashless bail to sanctuary state policies to shutting down Indian Point and banning natural gas, were policies at his hands. But as the President said, when given a choice, and in this case based on the polls, the choice is really between Mandani and Cuomo. It's a choice between the lesser of two evils as far as I'm concerned. An avowed socialist Marxist who talks about seizing the means of production, banning private property ownership, freezing the rent, raising taxes by $9 billion on New Yorkers. He wants to defund the police, legalize prostitution, shut down prisons, you know, free busing, government run grocery stores. These policies have never worked wherever they've been tried. Part of the reason why we have had so much immigration into the United States is because people are fleeing countries that promote these policies, whether it be in Eastern Europe or in south and Central America. They don't work. And yet here we are on the verge of electing an avowed socialist as mayor of New York City, the financial capital of the world. You will see a mass exodus out of New York. It's not just about federal dollars. The tax base will deplete because businesses and those who can afford to leave will. And that will be catastrophic for New York. It's part of the reason why yesterday when Kathy Hochul and Hakeem Jeffries were both asked, is Zoran Mandani the future of the Democratic Party? They both stuttered and stammered and couldn't get out of there fast enough because they know this is a disaster for the Democratic Party to have an avowed socialist leading the charge in New York City. He will become the face of the Democratic Party and, and it is not good for New York. As a lifelong New Yorker, this is a disaster. And it's part of the reason why, you know, when people go to vote tomorrow, choose wisely, because this is going to be catastrophic with the lesser of two evils.
- [27:28]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Mike Lawler, the congressman from New York, it's good to see you, sir, and many thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. Indeed, Michael Bloomberg has endorsed Andrew Cuomo in the New York City mayoral race. He's donated to a super PAC supporting Cuomo. And Michael Bloomberg is the founder, majority owner of Bloomberg lp, the parent company of Bloomberg TV and Radio. Let's play it to the panel. Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino are with us, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Back with us throughout the hour here, Rick, of course, our Republican strategist. And I'll start there with you, Rick. We talked a little bit about the president's sort of tacit endorsement of Andrew Cuomo earlier today. Should Republicans have simply run a better candidate or does that not matter in New York? You know, it always matters because the ability to get in and define what.
- [28:15]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
The terms of the election, what the stakes of the election are going to be is really important.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
And, and I would say Kurt Sliwa has been a perennial mayor candidate.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
So I do think, I think, you.
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Know, what they'll probably look at is let's find some other way to make that point because this has not gotten us very far. And look, I mean, right now in some of the polls, he's getting as many votes almost as is is is Cuomo. So you never really know what impact you're going to have. You mentioned, Mike Bloomberg got elected mayor as a Republican the first time he ran. So never say never. But in this case, all eyes are on the Democratic socialist, as Donald Trump.
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Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Calls him, the Communist Marxist, has been.
- [29:00]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Mentioned by Congressman Lawler. I mean, like, this guy's got more.
- [29:03]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Titles than anything I've ever heard of.
- [29:06]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
And yet I think one thing everybody agrees upon, he's likely to have a new title, you know, come tomorrow, and that's Mayor New York Boy. Jeannie, I'm not sure what you made of our conversation there. But can Donald Trump get Andrew Cuomo elected mayor?
- [29:22]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
No, I don't think Donald Trump can get him elected. And I think the question you asked Rick about Sliwa is a really good one because I think it can also be asked about moderate Democrats. And I often consider myself one in terms of their choice of candidate in terms of Cuomo. You know, it's not that long ago that Cuomo stepped down as governor. He had, you know, several, several issues dogging him at that point. He has tried to get over those, but it hasn't been a long time. And of course you see the young people and the energy out for Mandani. So I think there is that question about both sides of the aisle when it comes to New York City in terms of the party elite, if you will, the more moderate members. So I think that's a question that can be asked because of course, we look at that Democratic primary and Mandani beat Cuomo by a large margin, which is why he's running as an independent. That said, this thing is not over. Polls show it's tightening. And you mentioned early turnout being huge. It is enormous.
- [30:24]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Enormous.
- [30:24]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
And lots of people over the age of 50 and those people may go with Cuomo. This may be a race of generations. And so Cuomo still has a shot here, although again, the polls would have to be wildly wrong if Mamdani loses.
- [30:38]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Hey, listen, this is why we came up here. This is the real stuff. And we're looking forward to our coverage tomorrow with the help of Jeannie Shan Zaino and Rick Davis, Bloomberg Politics contributors. Thanks to both of you for weighing in here following our conversation with Congressman Mike Lawler. Stay with us. On balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [30:58]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Support for the show comes from public.com you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic option plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public, you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto, it's all there. Plus an industry leading 3.6% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss including loss of principal.
- [31:44]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities.
- [31:46]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
Options and bonds and is self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC crypto trading provided by ZeroHash.
- [31:53]
Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center)
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.
- [31:59]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
You'Re listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast.
- [32:02]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
Catch us live weekdays at noon and.
- [32:04]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
5Pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on on YouTube.
- [32:15]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Nice to see you. We're at world headquarters in New York and we're parked here for a couple of days because we'll be here for election night special coverage tomorrow. We do have a lot more to talk about when it comes to elections in New York, Virginia, New Jersey and we will coming up a little bit later in the program with our political panel and at the top of the hour, 1pm Eastern time, we'll be joined by Republican Congressman Mike Lawler of New York who has as you could well expect, a few things to say about the New York mayoral election, not to mention our shutdown. We are in day A34. It's not bothering the markets as we just heard from Charlie Pellet. In fact, we wake up to yet another massive announcement when it comes to the AI spend and I'm guessing there are a lot of investors who feeling like they missed the boat when it comes to Amazon because Amazon had been largely left on the side of the road in this conversation and following the earnings report last week and now this. It's a different world. Amazon's cloud unit signing a $38 billion deal deal to supply Open Air's APE Open Air with computing power and it's got the stocks on the move here. It's going to involve Nvidia chips and so everybody is happy all over again. That means we get to spend some time here with Caroline Hyde. As I mentioned in person, this is see part of the fun of coming to New York as you get to see all the famous people like the co host of Bloomberg Tech on Bloomberg tv. Great to see you.
- [33:32]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
It's so much fun to be here with you.
- [33:34]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Well it's what a treat for me. I would just love to hear from you about this idea of circular investing the lazy Susan how does OpenAI find another announcement every other day? Because I'm hearing that this is actually something that investors can look at as a more real transaction as to some of the other kind of longer term.
- [33:55]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
Visionary deals because the data centers are already there and the compute Equipment that is going to be able to provide is basically going be up and running by the end of 2026. Much closer in proximity than perhaps the $300 billion deal that's been struck with with Oracle or the tens of billions that OpenAI has agreed with Broadcom to develop its own chips. Amazon is already the dominant market player when it comes to offering cloud. They are now, because of the new agreement between Microsoft and Open AI, allowed to have a bit more of the piece of the pie when it comes to offering some compute to OpenAI of which of course has an insatiable demand for these things as it trains its large language models. So $38 billion straight up, we got a seven year agreement, this could ramp up ever higher. And already they're saying they're going to be deploying these GPUs that are in the hundreds of thousands when it comes to Nvidia, but also CPUs. And that's where the nuance goes because Amazon's real selling point here is, look, we are vertically integrated, sure, come with us and we'll give you the cloud compute. But we're also developing our own chips. They don't name check Trainium in this particular statement, but remember, that's why Anthropic has been a big investment for them and where Anthropic is helping them use their own chips in the future, they say there could be millions of CPUs provided. Maybe that's a bit more of Amazon's take. So this is really just feeding on what you said was that narrative we got the end of the week that NWC is back up and running. We've seen growth accelerate into the 20% demand.
- [35:17]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Wow, amazing. So where does this leave Microsoft, which has a massive stake in Open Air? And it goes back to the question of how can all of these competitors be enriching each other and make that sustainable?
- [35:28]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
Well, I mean all positively back to Nvidia of course is always about their GPUs. They do well. Microsoft in the meantime is signing its own deals. And I think Microsoft's real key message last week in their earnings was we don't have a demand issue here, we have a supply issue. And that's why Amy Heard and Satya Nadella have got ever more creative about how they're using Neo Clouds. That was the big news that we got out of them today. Iran is actually an Australian company, but has a lot of compute access because it used to be helping mine Bitcoin. Now it's got a lot of to access access to compute in Texas and they're signing a $9.7 billion deal Microsoft to allow them to lease some of their compute going forward and they have extra to come. Microsoft's trying to be creative in that yes I'll build my own data centers and yes I'll ramp up my capex but look in five years time if the lease has to come to an end and I haven't had the end demand there that can go so they've got deals with N scale with nebulous over in Europe and then they're doing this deal with iron but for Microsoft I think there was an admission that relationship with open I had to change exchange because they didn't have the amount of compute that open. I need some Altman's talking the trillions of dollars that he needs so I.
- [36:31]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Need to get abstract with you in our remaining couple of moments here because when you hear headlines like we did over the weekend that AI spending made up more than 90% of quarterly GDP I'll have my own anecdotal by the way, tell me I'm wrong. When I flew from Washington to New York yesterday, I could see the data centers all the way up the coast in places where I had never noticed them before. Maybe I'm not I just had to mention that. I don't know, maybe that's not even real. But I kept I said look, there's another one, another farm of data centers. There are critics who think that this is a bubble. You hear about them every day. Yeah, you talk to the evangelists who run these AI companies. Someone's got to be wrong.
- [37:13]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
I think many would admit some Altman has admitted even Brett Taylor, who's The chairman of OpenAI has admitted even Bill Gates Gates has admitted that not everyone's going to win. There are going to be money deployed into the wrong players here. But at the moment GPUs are being created and sold. Money goes to in video. That's real revenue. Microsoft is selling compute with Azure. That is real revenue. OpenAI I think is the one that's got to prove it all out. Some of these newer neo clouds are the ones that are still building and picks and shovels in 2028 will we have had the $3 trillion spent on data centers that Morgan Stanley thinks they're well at been and how will it been financed? Are we getting more creative off balance sheet? Are we seeing debt like Alphabet sells today? Are we seeing like matter $30 billion? I think we just need the nuance of what is the overall return on Investment. But you're right, the AI spending is real.
- [38:01]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Well, I think the Atlantic referred to this as the Nvidia state in a column over the weekend. How much of our fortunes are riding on a single company in this country?
- [38:10]
Host 2 (Co-host or Bloomberg Anchor)
Extraordinary and worldwide. Yeah, we're starting to see them striking deals over in Asia. South Korea is now really using them as the partner of China choice. You've got Europe wanting to big up its own sovereign. I think most economies are being sustained by this need to, to build and build strongly.
- [38:26]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
You're so good at this. I'm so glad you come by. Caroline Hyde, of course. Thank you. Ever Bloomberg Tech. You know that already on Bloomberg tv, where they're covering this every day in a way that you can't see anywhere else but on Bloomberg tv. What a treat here as we watch the stocks move on this. My goodness, you've been listening to Charlie Pellet, of course. Nvidia's up 3% today. We're, we're approaching $210. Amazon is flying as well. It's up another 5% after that big pop on earnings last week. And it's a great opportunity to spend some time with Christina Kino, also with us in person here at world headquarters in New York. Managing Editor, Bloomberg Markets Live Blog. We never get to do this and actually see each other.
- [39:04]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
I'm so.
- [39:05]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
What a treat. So we were just making the point that we're on day 34 of a government shutdown. Wall street couldn't care less, apparently. And as we learn now that SNAP benefits will @ least be partially funded, some think that is a sign that this shutdown will just keep on going because we're removing the pain points, as they say. At what point does Wall street run out of patience?
- [39:25]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
Yeah, I mean, very interesting, Joe, because my team did actually conduct a survey a few weeks ago asking our clients, you know, at what point would the shutdown actually start to hurt markets? And they said that if it lasts, lasts for more than a month. But here we are exactly nearly 35 days and it's still really not showing any signs of piercing that equity rally. And, you know, if for reasons that are not related really to the shutdown. Right. We, we have this constant story of deal after deal in the air space being made that's really sustaining investor enthusiasm. That's allowing them to kind of set aside the shutdown for a little bit and focus on other more optimistic things.
- [40:04]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Which is all AI all the time. Right. We were just talking about this monster deal, and I know you're writing about this as well. At what point do you start to get nervous or are you already about breadth in this market? Because we're going to. We inevitably are going to hear about a rotation that is now it's a value thing. And. And it just never happens. The tech stocks just keep climbing.
- [40:24]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, the interesting thing, you make such a good point regarding the breadth, because that has been the longstanding issue with this fueled rally this year. The fact that it has been repeatedly driven, being driven by a shrinking number of stocks and meanwhile the rest of the market not really showing much signs of life. But I think what's kind of changed the narrative now is that within the AI space and the AI trade itself, it does seem like there's a bit of a broadening in that theme. Right. Initially, we've seen mostly the Magnificent Seven benefiting from it. It's really the giants where gains are concentrated, where those deals are concentrated. But now I think that theme is moving beyond kind of who has the initial kind of hype, which is a lot of the Magnificent Seven and now the picks and shovels part of this trade. Right. We're talking about providers of power, the providers of data center infrastructure. It seems like there's that shift now which I think is giving investors a reason to be more optimistic because now they're thinking, hey, it's not just concentrated. Right. Which is the risk, it's now actually broadening that AI benefit circle.
- [41:28]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
So maybe it's not just the Nvidia State, maybe it's the state. As we spend time with Christina Kino. I'm looking at this Can View deal today. It's a monster $40 billion. Kimberly Clark making the. Making the buy here on a company that had been severely damaged, at least in terms of its stock from Washington, from RFK Jr. When he made this call on autism being tied somehow to Tylenol. It does seem like while that's the stock was damaged. People are pretty excited about this today. And I wonder if the company has put that chapter back behind it.
- [41:58]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
Yeah, absolutely. But it's very interesting though, because of course, Can View shares were soaring on the back of this deal. And you know, that's something that's very known in the street that really needed that fresh injection of capital to keep its sales going or to revive its sales. But on the flip side, Kimberly Clark shares were actually down earlier once we heard of this deal. And that speaks a lot to some of those underlying worries still that are probably being driven by just the chatter around this company from. From Washington. Right. And you know, there is some consideration, we know from Kimberly Clark's perspective, like what are you going to be doing about the potential challenges, regulatory and others speaking when it comes to acquiring an asset like can view and all the controversy surrounding that. But it seems like they were prepared. Investors have yet to be convinced of that based on the share price declining. But you know, early days, we'll see how that plays out.
- [42:52]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Can be is up 15% right now, Clark down about 13%. We've got about a minute here. Christine, are you hearing talk on Wall street about this Supreme Court case involving tariffs this week? We're going to have opening arguments on Wednesday. If they tell Donald Trump he can't do this, we're talking about the potential of a huge payback of money. Would that not rock the market?
- [43:13]
Host 1 (Possibly Bloomberg Anchor or Reporter)
Yeah, I mean, very interesting indeed. It's probably not necessarily something that's squarely on the market's radar just because I think there's a little bit of fatigue when it comes to the markets trying to price the impact of tariff or the lack of impact of tariffs as the case may be. You know, and so I think investors are really kind of wanting something concrete now at this point. Right. Either in the form of a signed deal or if not a signed deal, kind of clear indications that, you know, tariff and trade deals with various countries between the US and various countries are really heading in that concretely positive direction or, you know, otherwise. And unless we get that, really it's hard for investors to kind of price this in at this moment unless they have clarity on the ultimate impact.
- [44:00]
Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
Call us back when you know. Christina Kino, thank you so much. It's great to see you. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every week day from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com pro.
- [44:20]
Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
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Congressman Mike Lawler (Republican, New York)
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Joe (Main Host or Lead Anchor)
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