Balance of Power – Podcast Summary

Episode: Shutdown Hits Critical Moment as Pressure Builds
Date: November 3, 2025
Host: Joe (Bloomberg Anchor), with Kailey Leinz, political contributors, and guests
Main Guests: Tyler Kendall (Washington Correspondent), Bill Hoagland (Senior VP, Bipartisan Policy Center), Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY), Rick Davis, Jeannie Shanz Zaino, Caroline Hyde, Christina Kino.

Episode Overview

This episode captures the fast-evolving atmosphere in Washington and New York on the eve of crucial local elections, set against the backdrop of a record-breaking 34-day U.S. government shutdown. The hosts and guests explore developments in the partial funding of key programs, mounting political tensions, the looming Supreme Court showdown over presidential tariff powers, and the intersection of Wall Street’s bullish AI-fueled rally with the political gridlock in Washington.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Deepens (Day 34)

• SNAP (food stamps) benefits partially funded after judicial intervention.
• Broader impacts being felt across federal services, but with markets largely unfazed.
• Uncertainty on the timeline to end the shutdown; possible stopgap measures ahead.

SNAP and WIC Relief

• Breaking News: White House announces partial SNAP funding after court ruling (03:10).
  • Tyler Kendall: “Department of Justice saying… enough funding for 50% of food aid benefits through November. About 1 in 8 Americans get aid through this program.” (03:10)
• Funding insufficient for the month; unclear how much families will actually receive and how quickly.
• Contingency funding could run out by late November, ramping up pressure for a broader deal/timeline.

2. Supreme Court & Presidential Tariff Authority

• Landmark Supreme Court arguments upcoming on President Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers (IEEPA).

• Potential consequences: legality of unilateral tariff imposition, challenges to separation of powers.

• Debate on whether national emergencies declared for tariff purposes (fentanyl, border issues, trade imbalances) fit legal standards.

  “Did President Trump have the legal authority to use IEEPA to impose tariffs? This has never been done before.”
  —Tyler Kendall (05:47)

3. Congressional Dysfunction and Path Forward

• Absence of real negotiations contrasted to past shutdowns (e.g., 1995-96).

  • Bill Hoagland: “At least during that [‘95-96] shutdown, there was negotiations… This is much different here where we don’t have the negotiations.” (07:38)

• Criticism of Congressional failure to pass a budget, with “unitary executive” stepping in to fill the vacuum.

• Discussion on the filibuster (“nuclear option”) and Trump’s calls to abolish it for efficiency.

  “Filibusters or 60 votes… are necessary to force compromise. And that’s what we’re not getting today.”
  —Bill Hoagland (10:10)

• Both parties blame the other for the stalemate, with polls showing more blame on Republicans (45% vs. 33% Democrats).

4. Election Eve Dynamics

• Local elections in NY, NJ, VA add urgency and political pressure to national standoff.

• Potential impact: Poor GOP results might pressure Republican leaders to seek resolution.

  “If the polls don’t look good…[Republicans] are maybe more likely both to stick to their guns on the nuclear option and also to start thinking…about ending this thing.”
  —Jeannie Shanz Zaino (14:50)

5. Congressman Mike Lawler Interview

On SNAP:

• “This should have been resolved weeks ago. House Republicans passed the Clean CR… to keep the government funded and open and fully fund SNAP and WIC through November 21st.” (19:55)
• Accuses Senate Democrats of repeatedly defunding SNAP, WIC, and critical federal workers’ pay.

On Shutdown Blame:

• “If you’re governing by polls, if you’re governing based on politics, this is why crap doesn’t get done. The American people are losing because of the stupidity being played in Washington.” (21:26)

On Continuing Resolution (CR):

• Advocates for an immediate clean CR, extension likely needed past Nov 21.
• Not in favor of year-long CRs: “I think most members are not in favor of a full year CR. We gotta get to work.”

On NYC Mayoral Race:

• Sees race as “lesser of two evils,” harshly criticizes socialist candidate Mandani, warns of business/tax base exodus and Democratic political risks.
  • “You will see a mass exodus out of New York. It’s not just about federal dollars. The tax base will deplete.” (25:08)
• Notes bipartisan concern: “part of the reason why…Hochul and Hakeem Jeffries…couldn’t get out of there fast enough because they know this is a disaster…”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

On Shutdown Deadlock

• Bill Hoagland:

  “This is a little different here where we don’t…have the negotiations. And this is much different than the past.” (07:38)

• Rep. Mike Lawler:

  “All you’re doing is creating hardship for the American people. You’re using people that rely on benefits like SNAP and WIC… It’s wrong. I don’t care who’s ‘winning’ based on the polls. The American people are losing.” (21:26)

On the Filibuster

• Bill Hoagland:

  “Filibusters or 60 votes…are necessary to force compromise. And that’s—well, we’re not getting that compromise today.” (10:10)

On New York Mayor’s Race

• Rep. Mike Lawler:

  “It’s part of the reason why…when people go to vote tomorrow, choose wisely, because this is going to be catastrophic with the lesser of two evils.” (27:27)

Market Reaction and the AI Boom

1. Markets Remain Buoyant Despite Shutdown

• Shutdown has little direct impact on market confidence; AI sector dominates headlines.

• Wall Street only becoming concerned if shutdown exceeds a month—yet at day 34, equities suffer little.

  “If [shutdown] lasts for more than a month…but here we are, nearly 35 days, and it’s still really not showing any signs of piercing that equity rally.”
  —Christina Kino (39:24)

2. Massive AI Cloud Infrastructure Investment

• Amazon and OpenAI ink $38B, 7-year deal for cloud power (33:33–35:17).

  • Amazon leveraging its own chip advancements; OpenAI’s “insatiable” compute needs.

• Microsoft invests creatively amid supply shortages, deals for leased compute.

• “Picks and shovels” play: market enthusiasm broadening from “Magnificent Seven” to infrastructure providers.

  “Within the AI space…it does seem like there’s a bit of a broadening in that theme… [to] providers of power, of data center infrastructure.”
  —Christina Kino (40:23)

3. Broader Impact of Tech and Trade Policy

• Supreme Court case on tariff authority watched by investors, though not fully priced in.

  “I think investors are really kind of wanting something concrete now…either in the form of a signed deal or clear indications…”
  —Christina Kino (43:13)

Timestamps of Key Segments

• Partial SNAP Funding Announced – 03:10
• Supreme Court Tariff Case Preview – 05:47
• Hoagland on Shutdown vs. Past Disputes – 07:38
• Filibuster/Nuclear Option Debate – 08:54
• Hoagland on Need for Compromise – 10:10
• Polls/Political Pressure – 11:47, 14:50
• Mike Lawler Interview (Shutdown, SNAP, Elections) – 19:55
• Lawler on Blame & Congressional Dysfunction – 21:26
• Lawler on Mayoral Race – 25:08
• Panel: Election Stakes, Candidate Choices – 28:14
• Amazon-OpenAI Cloud Deal Discussion – 33:33, 35:17
• Wall Street’s Reaction to Shutdown – 39:24
• Worries About Market Breadth – 40:23
• Supreme Court Tariff Ruling & Market Impact – 43:13

Conclusion

The episode presents an urgent snapshot of American politics as the shutdown’s duration nears record length. Pressure mounts on lawmakers due to judicial intervention in food benefits, impending election results, and a Supreme Court showdown on presidential powers. Congressman Lawler and panelists serve up candid partisan arguments, while Wall Street’s AI gold rush offers uplifting counter-narratives even as Washington gridlock persists in the background. The underlying theme: Washington’s political calculus remains in flux, while economic and technological momentum charges ahead.