Balance of Power – "Signal Report Deepens Hegseth Scrutiny"

Date: December 4, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu, with Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg)
Key Guests: Tony Capaccio (Bloomberg Pentagon Reporter), Evelyn Farkas (McCain Institute), Rick Davis (Bloomberg Politics), Janee Wartell (ARC Initiatives), Marlon Stutzman (Rep., IN-3)

Episode Overview

This episode centers on two critical headlines out of Washington:

• The highly anticipated Inspector General’s (IG) report on "Signal Gate," scrutinizing Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s handling of classified information and the subsequent risks to U.S. forces.
• The broader political fallout on Capitol Hill, including divided GOP leadership and an unfolding health care debate, culminating in a live interview with Rep. Marlon Stutzman.

With Bloomberg’s Joe Mathieu steering the discussion, the program features in-depth guest analysis on national security, legal implications of military decisions, and the GOP’s political turmoil.

I. Signal Gate and the IG Report: Deep Dive with Tony Capaccio

[00:51–08:32]
Joe Mathieu and Tony Capaccio discuss the findings, fallout, and implications of the Pentagon's Signal Gate scandal.

Key Points & Insights

• Scope and Revelations of IG Report:

  • The report is 84 pages; essential content is found on pages 14 and 25 ([02:29]).

  • Confirms Defense Secretary Hegseth shared mission-critical, classified battle plans via Signal shortly before operations over Yemen, taking "cavalier" risks ([02:29–03:36]).

  • Hegseth denied sharing classified information, but IG report indicates otherwise.

    “Bottom line is this showed that the Secretary of War or Defense... was cavalier in his use of this information. This is clearly classified... And he sent this stuff out on Signal two to four hours before the operations began. That was new to me.”
    – Tony Capaccio ([02:29])

• Declassification Authority and Accountability:

  • The IG acknowledges Hegseth’s declassification authority but sidesteps whether it was appropriately exercised ([03:43]).

  • Regardless, the “actions created additional risks to US forces and missions” ([05:17]).

    “Even though these events did not ultimately occur, the Secretary's actions created a risk to operational security that could have resulted in failed US mission objectives and potential harm to US pilots."
    – Joe Mathieu, quoting the IG report ([05:24])

• Erosion of Operational Security:

  • A journalist’s inadvertent addition to a Signal group by Michael Waltz exposed sensitive information. Hegseth used personal channels instead of secure facilities ([04:16–05:17]).
  • Senator Roger Wicker (R-MS) downplays it, calling for better tools but not accountability:

    “It's clear our senior leaders need more tools... So nothing to see here.”
    – Joe Mathieu quoting Sen. Wicker ([05:37])

• Political and Professional Repercussions:

  • Capaccio predicts limited fallout; no overwhelming bipartisan outrage, making it unlikely to force Hegseth’s resignation ([07:04–07:29]).
  • Reporters feel less access since being exiled from the Pentagon, but Capaccio says the flow of scoops is unchanged; what’s lost is real-time crisis access ([08:08–08:32]).

II. Yemen Strike Legal Controversy & Military Testimony: Evelyn Farkas

[08:32–16:53]
Evelyn Farkas analyzes the legality of U.S. military strikes and the handling of survivors at sea, questioning international law compliance.

Key Points & Insights

• Legality and New Precedents:

  • Farkas asserts ongoing operations are likely illegal, as U.S. actions blur lines between war and police action, particularly in high seas engagements ([10:23]).

    “These operations in and of themselves are likely illegal. The fact that we are conducting these... on the high seas, the fact that we're calling them war, doesn't make it war. These are police actions... resulting in the killing of people we don't even know.”
    – Evelyn Farkas ([10:23])

• Survivor Protections under International Law:

  • Killing survivors clinging to wreckage or radioing for help is unequivocally unlawful ([13:03]).

    “Radioing for help... is an act of survivor survival, if you will. That is a civilian act... those individuals cannot be killed for radioing for help.”
    – Evelyn Farkas ([13:03])

• Accountability for Command Decisions:

  • Farkas anticipates future court-martials or military justice reviews regarding these actions, emphasizing U.S. credibility hinges on upholding international norms ([13:49–14:29]).

    “I do think that these individuals will be court martialed... we need to make sure that we abide by international law... so that we want them to also be given fair treatment and given the protection that the Geneva Conventions gives them.”
    – Evelyn Farkas ([13:49])

• Culture of Dissent – Firing of Admiral Halsey:

  • Farkas calls the firing of a commander during ongoing operations “incredibly rare” and dangerous, especially if it results from legal challenges expressed up the chain ([15:43]).

    “You do not remove your leading commander unless there's real cause. And in this case, the only thing he did was question the legal assessment.”
    – Evelyn Farkas ([15:43])

• Halsey Testimony Prospects:

  • Halsey could testify as a civilian, limited only by state secrecy, but would likely be compelled by Congress ([16:37]).

III. Congressional Politics in Turmoil

[18:25–29:16]
Joe Mathieu hosts a roundtable with Rick Davis and Janee Wartell on intra-GOP tensions, Elise Stefanik’s criticism of Speaker Johnson, Republican strategy, and the health care impasse.

Key Points & Insights

• Google Trends Reveal Political Engagement:

  • Poll data and trending searches show Americans’ heightened focus on political topics — K-pop, Labubu, tariffs, and the “one big beautiful bill” ([18:25–20:14]).

• Elise Stefanik vs. Speaker Johnson:

  • Speaker Johnson responds to Stefanik’s public criticisms regarding legislation and leadership breakdowns, expressing confusion over her grievances ([20:53]).

    “I'm not sure exactly why she's frustrated with me. I literally had nothing to do with it. But I'm happy to roll up my sleeves and help her.”
    – House Speaker Mike Johnson ([20:53])

• Analyst Takes on GOP Fractures:

  • Wartell interprets Stefanik as courting independence for political gain, given discontent with Trump and mounting GOP vulnerabilities ([21:43]).

  • Rick Davis points to electoral warning signs for Republicans, foregrounding the risk of further legislative gridlock ([23:47–25:20]).

    “If you lost 50 Republicans in a House, you can forget any initiative legislatively for Donald Trump in the last two years of his office. So this is, this is a major political fallout...”
    – Rick Davis ([23:47])

• Johnson’s Leadership Tie to Trump:

  • Wartell contends Johnson’s effectiveness is less about individual skill, more about Trump’s coercive influence on House Republicans ([25:58]).

    “I think that Mike Johnson's effectiveness has really been tied more directly to how much that folks have fallen in line with Donald Trump rather than his own political maneuvering...”
    – Janee Wartell ([25:58])

• Upcoming Health Care Legislation:

  • With both parties anxious over health care costs, a Senate vote is set for the following week. Johnson’s capacity to secure victories depends on narrowly threading legislative deals ([28:06]).

    “It's pretty clear that we lost the, the narrative debate around the shutdown over health care... my guess is you have a very high chance that something comes out of the House that the speaker will try to take a victory lap on...”
    – Rick Davis ([28:06])

IV. Rep. Marlon Stutzman on Health Care, Party Unity, & 2026

[31:49–44:20]
Rep. Marlon Stutzman offers a Republican perspective on health care negotiations, the GOP’s internal strife, budgetary priorities, redistricting, and pending nominations.

Key Points & Insights

• GOP Outlook on Health Care:

  • Skeptical of bipartisan framework (Gottheimer/Higgins), Stutzman prefers empowering consumers directly, not insurers, via Health Savings Accounts (HSAs) ([34:42]).

    “I would much rather send it to the HSA's, send the money directly to the consumers, let the consumer make the decision on what to do with those funds.”
    – Rep. Marlon Stutzman ([34:42])

• Shutdown Prospects:

  • Stutzman is confident another shutdown will be avoided, credits "big beautiful bill," and frames current struggles as lingering effects of the Biden era ([35:41]).

• Budgeting, Minibuses, and GOP Unity:

  • Advocates for flexibility in funding the government (12 appropriations bills or minibuses). Supports Speaker Johnson’s leadership despite a fractured GOP majority ([37:06]).

    "Speaker Johnson has a very tough job. And I think that the fact that, you know, this, the shutdown did hurt the momentum that we had... But we're going to get back on track."
    – Rep. Stutzman ([39:05])

• On Elise Stefanik’s Criticism:

  • Minimizes public GOP infighting, attributes Stefanik’s actions to her gubernatorial aspirations and suggests issues should be handled in-house ([39:05]).

• Redistricting in Indiana:

  • Supports state-level initiatives to ensure fair representation, in line with national Republican strategy ([40:35–42:15]).

• Federal Reserve – Endorsement:

  • Would support Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair, highlighting his optimism and steady leadership ([43:23]).

V. Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Civil-Military Standards:

  “Deeming them war does not make them war to begin with.”
  – Evelyn Farkas ([15:07])

• Capaccio on Reporting Changes:

  “What we're not getting, though, is access in an emergency. If the United States struck Venezuela tonight or tomorrow, we wouldn't be able to run in and get stuff... It would be all depending on Twitter and their babble from other places.”
  – Tony Capaccio ([08:08])

• On House GOP Discord:

  "If an election were held today for a Speaker, no way would this guy get elected. So... you've got a pretty good mess in the leadership in the House of Representatives."
  – Rick Davis ([28:06])

• On the Use of Signal for Sensitive Material:

  “There's a judgment call here whether to do it on Signal. It's a judgment issue.”
  – Tony Capaccio ([06:26])

VI. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:51] Show open, focus on IG report and ‘Signal Gate’
• [02:09–07:29] Tony Capaccio on IG findings and Hegseth’s conduct
• [08:32–16:53] Evelyn Farkas on military legality, Geneva Convention, and testimony before Congress
• [18:25–29:16] Roundtable on GOP tensions, Speaker Johnson, and health care debate
• [31:49–44:20] Rep. Marlon Stutzman live interview: health care, budgeting, party unity, Fed chair

Conclusion

This Balance of Power episode offered a revealing look at the Pentagon’s emerging scandals, pressing the need for stronger operational security and legal oversight. It also spotlighted deepening Republican divisions in Congress, debated health care ahead of a key Senate vote, and featured in-depth congressional perspective on the path forward. In sum, it was a news-rich, fast-moving program that delivered both behind-the-scenes reporting and political analysis in the original, candid style listeners expect from Bloomberg’s D.C. bureau.