Trump Backs Noem, Shifts Minnesota Plan

Summary

---

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode: Trump Backs Noem, Shifts Minnesota Plan
Date: January 27, 2026
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg), with Kailey Leinz
Notable Guests: Alicia Caldwell, Mick Mulvaney, David Kochel, Rick Davis, Jeannie Shan Zaino

Overview

This episode of Balance of Power dives into the White House’s shifting strategy on immigration enforcement in Minnesota following the controversial killing of Alex Preddy by federal agents. The hosts and guests analyze President Trump’s attempt to pivot the national conversation back to affordability and the economy, amidst internal White House turmoil, public unrest in Minneapolis, and the looming threat of a federal government shutdown linked to DHS funding. Key political maneuvers—including the role of Kristi Noem, the deployment of Tom Homan, and the sidelining of Greg Bovino—are scrutinized for their policy and political implications ahead of Trump’s Iowa speech.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. White House Response to Minneapolis Controversy

• Trump's Comments on Investigation

  • Trump, departing for Iowa, promised a "big investigation" into Alex Preddy’s death by federal officers, vowing personal oversight.
    • Quote: “We're doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I'm going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation. He said, I have to see it myself.” — Joe Matthew recounting Trump’s remarks [01:19]

• Policy Directives Outlined by Administration:

  • Turn over all criminal illegal aliens in state custody to federal authorities for deportation.
  • Local law enforcement to collaborate with federal agencies on apprehending illegal aliens.
  • Local police must support federal agents, especially relating to violent crimes.
    • Quote (Caroline Levitt, Press Secretary):
      "He has outlined a clear and simple path to restoring law and order in Minnesota…” [02:35]

2. Local Perspective from Minneapolis

• Alicia Caldwell, Bloomberg Immigration Reporter, gives an on-the-ground update:

  • Mixed and unclear response from state and local officials; resistance to using local police for federal immigration enforcement.

  • Minneapolis Police Department is "shorthanded," with about 600 officers vs. 3,000 federal agents at peak, making federal requests "a big ask."

    • Quote: “Historically, the answer has been largely no, that local police don’t have a role in enforcing federal immigration law. It’s a civil procedure.” — Alicia Caldwell [03:53]

  • Community remains tense but hopes for resolution; resident attitudes are “relief, but tampered with wait and see approaches.”

    • Quote: “...overheard one person describe they can’t wait to dance in the street when everything is official and over. But for now, things are still really tense.” — Alicia Caldwell [05:11]

3. White House Infighting & Staffing Changes

• Tom Homan Replaces Kristi Noem in Minneapolis Oversight:

  • Trump sends Homan to take charge, reporting directly to him—not Noem—signaling a shift in authority and another pivot on handling the situation.

• Assessments from Mick Mulvaney (Former Acting Chief of Staff):

  • Sees the shift as “an all of administration pivot,” unprecedentedly swift for Trump.
    • Quote: “We’ve not seen a pivot this significant this quickly from Donald Trump ever.” — Mick Mulvaney [09:09]
  • DHS messaging criticized as “tin-eared,” having aggravated the political fallout.
  • Predicts Noem will not be fired but may be moved; a resignation may be refused by Trump.
    • Quote: “I cannot imagine them firing her over this. If she offered her resignation, the president said no. That sounds like it's probably the appropriate way for it to go.” — Mick Mulvaney [11:01]

• Oval Office Meeting Dynamics:

  • Kristi Noem requested a key Oval Office meeting; notably absent was Stephen Miller, Trump’s chief immigration strategist.
    • Quote: “To have an immigration meeting in the Oval Office without Stephen Miller is… like you and me having a market update, not talking about the Dow.” — Mick Mulvaney [11:58]
  • Corey Lewandowski’s continuing closeness to Trump is noted, despite not holding an official role.
    • Quote: "People who underestimate Corey Lewandowski's ability to work with President Trump do so at their own peril." — Mick Mulvaney [12:43]

4. Political Ramifications & Reset Messaging

• Pivot Back to Economy/Affordability:

  • Trump aims to refocus on economic issues in his Iowa speech, with advisers urging a reset as immigration politics become a liability.
    • Quote: “Mr. President, we’re losing on immigration… Let’s go talk about the economy, please.” — Mick Mulvaney [13:24]

• Government Shutdown Looms:

  • Guests discuss the likelihood of a short-term federal shutdown due to lack of trust between parties over DHS funding and ICE practices.
    • Quote: “I’m at about 85% on at least a short-term shutdown over the weekend.” — Mick Mulvaney [15:45]

5. Iowa Visit: Strategic Importance

• David Kochel (GOP Strategist) on Iowa’s Role:
  • Trump comfortable in Iowa, will try to energize base and refocus on economic successes.
  • Iowa is critical for the upcoming cycle; expectations of endorsements for key GOP races.
    • Quote: “Iowa is really ground zero for control of Congress… Having him there, I think the party thinks that this is going to be a net plus.” — David Kochel [19:43]
  • Immigrant labor shortage is a concern in Iowa, potentially complicating response to immigration crackdowns.

6. Situation in the Twin Cities & Community Impact

• St. Paul Mayor Kali Her speaks out following the shooting:
  • Quote: “Alex was not at a protest. It was a morning in which he just happened to be in a space in which he saw activity and he wanted to go and document. I think that it is dangerous when we say that just because people are gathering or they exist is that they are protesting. They are not. They know that their neighbors have been taken off of the streets, that people are being ripped out of their homes forcibly.” — Kali Her [27:40]

7. Panel Analysis: Political Dynamics & DHS Turbulence

• Jeannie Shan Zaino (Democrat Analyst):

  • Noem’s position increasingly precarious amid communication missteps; previous value as a communicator seems lost.
  • Expectation of further staff leaks and possible reassignment.
    • Quote: “She’s got to be wondering, rightly so, what does she bring to the table? I think at this point she’s hanging on because Wiles and Trump don’t want to see a lot of turnover.” — Jeannie Shan Zaino [29:46]

• Rick Davis (Republican Strategist):

  • Tom Homan’s direct report to Trump not unusual, but Noem is “in the doghouse.”
  • Bovino’s tactics disruptive; his removal from Minnesota signals acknowledgment of political damage.
    • Quote: “…these are basically the equivalent of stormtroopers in the United States government. And I'm sure that there are people within the White House, Stephen Miller, who believe that his tactics are justified somehow. But he’s going to become a cudgel for this administration if he isn't already.” — Rick Davis [32:27]
  • Suggests Congressional oversight is overdue regarding federal law enforcement’s actions, not just administrative shuffling.

• Broader Reflection:

  • Both panelists emphasize that changing figureheads (Noem, Bovino, Homan) is insufficient if core policies, culture, and operations of federal immigration enforcement remain unchanged.

---

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Trump on investigation:
  “We're doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I'm going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation." — Joe Matthew recounting Trump's remarks [01:19]

• Caroline Levitt on restoring order:
  “Outlined a clear and simple path to restoring law and order in Minnesota…” [02:35]

• Alicia Caldwell on local law enforcement’s limits:
  “Historically, the answer has been largely no, that local police don’t have a role in enforcing federal immigration law.” [03:53]

• Mick Mulvaney on Trump’s pivot:
  “We’ve not seen a pivot this significant this quickly from Donald Trump ever.” [09:09]

• Kali Her, St. Paul mayor, on public trauma:
  “It is dangerous when we say that just because people are gathering or they exist is that they are protesting. They are not. They know that their neighbors have been taken off of the streets, that people are being ripped out of their homes forcibly...” [27:40]

• Jeannie Shan Zaino on Noem’s standing:
  “She’s got to be wondering, rightly so, what does she bring to the table? I think at this point she’s hanging on because Wiles and Trump don’t want to see a lot of turnover.” [29:46]

• Rick Davis on Bovino’s removal:
  “He was withdrawn from Minneapolis, but also his team, I mean, these are basically the equivalent of stormtroopers in the United States government… the disruption that he has caused is actually hurting the administration and its political prospects in that state in the future.” [32:27]

---

Timestamps Overview

| Segment | Description | Timestamp | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | President’s remarks, focus | Trump promises investigation, pivots to affordability, local/fed tension in MN | 01:02-03:21| | Alicia Caldwell (Minneapolis) | Community mood, law enforcement tension, ICE-federal-local conflicts | 03:21-06:46| | Mick Mulvaney analysis | Pivot, Noem’s future, staffing, Oval Office meeting, GOP messaging shift | 09:06-16:21| | David Kochel on Iowa | Iowa’s political value, expected messaging, impact of immigration policies on local economy | 17:49-24:03| | Mayor Kali Her (St. Paul) | Community trauma, labeling of “protest,” ICE raids, disruption of family and community stability | 27:40-28:09| | Political panel | DHS internal strife, leadership questions, Congressional inaction, broader organizational issues | 28:09-36:46|

---

Conclusion

This episode documents a crisis-driven reset within the Trump White House as it attempts to reassert control after a local tragedy and national backlash over aggressive immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota. The discussion reveals a tense standoff between political expediency, policy failure, and the real-world consequences for American communities—all under the shadow of a potential government shutdown.

The balance of political commentary, on-the-ground reporting, and insider perspective offers an intimate portrait of a White House under pressure, struggling to change the narrative while managing fractious internal politics and mounting public scrutiny.

---

Transcript

[Advertisement Voice]

Small businesses are the pulse of every community. They bring people together, create opportunities and drive growth. Chase for Business helps business owners like you with personalized guidance and convenient digital tools all in one place. With that guidance and your determination, you can take your business farther and help build a brighter future for your community. Learn [e-mail] business chase for business Make More of what's yours the Chase Mobile app is available for select mobile devices. Message and data rates may apply. JPMorgan Chase Bank NA Member FDIC Copyright 2026 JPMorgan Chase Co.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

Welcome to the Tuesday Ed edition on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we just said goodbye to President Trump. He's on his way to Iowa right now. A speech in Des Moines, back on the Affordability tour set to coincide with the closing bell about 4:00pm Eastern Time. We'll see how close to on time he is and we plan to bring you some of his remarks live here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Having just now been asked in the White House driveway on his way to Marine One about the situation in Minneapolis and the investigation into Alex Preddy's death, he said, quote, we're doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I'm going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation. He said, I have to see it myself. These could be some of the most complete remarks we hear from the president today as again he tries to steer the narrative toward affordability, knowing that big changes are coming now in Minneapolis. It was around this time yesterday the president announced on Truth Social that he'd had a phone call with Tim Walsh, the governor, suggesting that they were on a similar wavelength. Those are the words that he used a bit later on today. He said he had a very good telephone conversation with Mayor Jacob Fry of Minneapolis. A lot of progress being made. Tom Holman, he says, will be meeting with him tomorrow and we're waiting for word on that. Holman has already met with the governor, knowing that Greg Bovino has been dispatched back to California and that we've been seeing a bit of a sidelining of the secretary of Homeland Security, Kristi Noem. All of these gears turning as Caroline Levitt, the press secretary, spoke to reporters yesterday about how to regain control over the situation.

[Advertisement Voice]

Listen, he has outlined a clear and simple path to restoring law and order in Minnesota. Number one, Governor Waltz, Mayor Fry and all Democrat leaders should turn over all criminal illegal aliens currently incarcerated in their prisons and jails to federal authorities, along with any illegal aliens with active warrants or known criminal histories for immediate deportation. Number two, state and local law enforcement must agree to turn over all illegal aliens who are arrested by local police. And then thirdly, local police must assist federal law enforcement in apprehending and detaining illegal aliens who are wanted for crimes, especially violent crimes.

[Joe Matthew]

That path laid out this time yesterday at the White House. Even as the investigations continue. We go to ground in Minneapolis with Alicia Caldwell, Bloomberg News immigration reporter has made her way to the city as all of these developments take place. Alicia, it's great to have you with us. I know it's bitter cold in Minneapolis and we appreciate your stopping down during your day of reporting here. How, how are these ideas being put forth by the White House going over with local officials, whether it's the mayor or for that matter, the governor?

[Alicia Caldwell]

You know, for the moment, the response is a little bit unclear from the ground. Historically, the answer has been largely no, that local police don't have a role in enforcing federal immigration law. It's a civil procedure. As a general proposition, the state prison system does cooperate and they do coordinate. In fact, they've posted a separate page now of information that they say rebuts many of the claims from the administration about cooperation, be it people who were arrested from their facilities or turned over. And, you know, ICE also has to proceed and take those people into custody when the state says, hey, we're about to release this person. And so there's, there's a conflict there. But in terms of local police, you know, they don't have very many officers. Relative, they have about 600 officers. There's 3,000 federal agents here right now, or at the peak there was. And the Minneapolis Police Department is shorthanded. They're down by about a third, according to the police chief. So, you know, that's a big ask that doesn't seem to be readily in the making.

[Joe Matthew]

Can you tell any difference on the ground today, Alicia, with Bovino out, he apparently was taking some officers with him. Is there a different posture in Minneapolis today?

[Alicia Caldwell]

It's hard to know. You know, there's as many agents as there are and have been in the region. Sometimes it's a bit of a needle in a haystack. So what you're seeing seeing is a lot of people in their Neighborhoods who see things and then report things and post to social media. But what I'm hearing from local residents is a sense of relief, but tampered with, wait and see approaches as I overheard one person describe they can't wait to dance in the street when everything is official and over. But for now, things are still really tense. I've been here off and on for the last three weeks. Back again first thing this morning. The city is still tense. As you drive around, you know, you'll see people with whistles, people on street corners with, with brightly colored vests, you know, operating as, as community lookouts effectively and trying to help, you know, as they describe, trying to help their neighbors stay safe.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's really important that you're there. Alicia Caldwell, we do appreciate your reporting. You cannot do this kind of reporting without actually being there. And would stay close to Alicia on this. Ahead of our conversation with Mick Mulvaney, I want to bring in Tyler Kendall. Thank you so much, Alicia. For her take on the president's speech today. There are two prongs to this story. You've got what's happening in Minneapolis and you've got the messaging that's going to come from the president, having heard from him in the driveway, Tyler, a short time ago, he says Kristi Noem is not out. He's going to be tracking this investigation. And by the time 4:00 clock Eastern rolls around, he's going to want us to be talking about strides this administration is, is taking when it comes to affordability. What do we expect from him in Des Moines?

[Advertisement Voice]

Well, Joe, this bit at de escalation from the Trump administration has largely been overshadowed because or rather the the White House's apparent want to focus on affordability has been overshadowed. And that is why we're seeing this perhaps bid at a de escalation, as we were just hearing Tom Homan now being sent over there. But it's really continuing what feels like a thunder theme over the past few weeks. Right. We had President Trump's speech in Davos last week, which we were told was going to be about affordability. And then it ended up being overshadowed by Greenland. So we'll see if this could be perhaps a reset for President Trump as he heads to Iowa. It's been pointed out that this is going to be a relatively friendly crowd. Right. President Trump has won Iowa repeatedly. You and I were there during the Iowa caucuses when it was just about as cold as it is now. And he handedly won that race. But he's also dealing with a few different factors, including that Iowa has had a mixed response when it comes to his policies, such as trade tensions with China. Iowa is the second top producers of soybeans in this country today. We saw US consumer confidence plummet to its lowest level since 2014. And then hanging over all of this is the potential that we could have a partial government shutdown over what is happening when it comes to ice in Minneapolis.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, we'll see what the rhetoric includes. As I mentioned, that speech set for 4pm Eastern. We're going to carry it here on Bloomberg TV and radio. Incidentally, 16 degrees right now in Des Moines. If that's bringing back some memories, I think we were sub zero, which they have been in Minneapolis as well. Tyler, thank you so much. Right now in Minneapolis on the ground, 5 degrees, which is a warmup from where we were over the weekend when thousands of protesters were on the streets. Pretty remarkable to consider. And I'd love to know what Mick Mulvaney has in his mind today as the president gears up for another rally, in this case in Iowa, a very important state on the map. But it's also a very confusing news cycle right now. The former Republican congressman, former acting chief of staff, the White House in the first term, former director of the Office of Management and Budget. I could keep going. It's a long business card and it's been a long time since we've had John. Mick, it's good to have you back. I hope the year is starting out well for you. We talk a lot about resets in Washington and with this administration. Is this another one today?

[Mick Mulvaney]

It is. And it's the likes of which I've not seen before. I was talking to Sean Spicer, a friend of mine from the first administration this morning. We both agree we've not seen a pivot this significant this quickly from Donald Trump ever.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow.

[Mick Mulvaney]

You've talked about a couple of things about Kristi Noem sort of being moved aside maybe temporarily for Tom Holman, who will be answering directly to the president. President was straight about that. Bevino getting shipped off to shipped off to California. The president talking to both the governor and the mayor, which doesn't seem remarkable except that JD Vance was there over the weekend and did not meet with those folks or did not talk to them. The language coming out of the White House now from Caroline Levitt is very different than the language that was coming out of dhs. So it's almost an all of administration pivot, and I think rightly so. They were getting their teeth kicked in on this Politically, it was. I mean, anytime Americans see a citizen on his knees getting shot in the back by. By federal law enforcement officers, that's a really bad day for the White House. So I've never seen anything like it, but I think it's the right response.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow, Mick. Well, that's something else. What did you make of the president's response just now in the driveway? Will Kristi Noem step down? Was the question not, will you fire her? He said, no. If you're a cabinet secretary on the rocks like this, how do you interpret an answer like that?

[Mick Mulvaney]

You do the right way, and then Christie would do it the right way. You ask the boss, look, do you. Do you need me to step down? And if he says, yet the president shouldn't ever have to fire any member of the Cabinet. Okay. What the president would do is, you know, make it clear that we want you to go and you would offer your resignation. And I just can't see that happening. Look, DHS has had a disastrous couple of weeks on messaging. They just have. A lot of this turmoil right now is caused by the immediate reaction that DHS had to both the killing over the weekend, but also 10 days ago with Renee Good, when they essentially ran to the microphones and said, oh, these were domestic terrorists or these were assassins.

[Joe Matthew]

Mm.

[Mick Mulvaney]

That's what's causing a lot of this. It's just that tin eared response. I don't know if you end up sacking your cabinet secretaries over messaging difficulties. Kristi Noem has done exactly what the administration has wanted since she took over. I cannot imagine them firing her over this. If she offered her resignation, the president said no. That sounds like it's probably the appropriate way for it to go.

[Joe Matthew]

So, two hours in the Oval. Kristi Noem, Corey Lewandowski. According to the New York Times, Susie Wiles is in there. Caroline Levitt. Strangely, Stephen Miller is not. Maybe not strangely. I'm just wondering, as somebody who's been in the room with Donald Trump when he has been angry, when he's been happy, what was the fly on the wall view of a meeting like this, knowing that no. Asked for it.

[Mick Mulvaney]

Well, I'm sorry.

[Joe Matthew]

Did.

[Mick Mulvaney]

No. Sorry. You might have a piece of information. I don't because that's what I've been asking.

[Joe Matthew]

Who called for the meeting?

[Mick Mulvaney]

Do you have it? Do you have information?

[Joe Matthew]

She requested the meeting. According to the New York Times, it was her request.

[Mick Mulvaney]

All right, so let's assume, for sake of this discussion, New York Times is right. I think it's fascinating to me that she asks for the meeting and Stephen Mil is not there. To have an immigration meeting in the Oval Office without Stephen Miller is. I don't know. It's like you and me having a market update, not talking about the Dow. You just, you just, you don't do that. So I think it'd be very interesting to confirm that she asked for the meeting. And then somebody must have affirmatively excluded Stephen. And there's only about two people I know can do that. One is the president states, the other, Susie Wiles, the Chief of staff. So you telling me that she asked the meeting reaffirms my position that I don't think she's leaving anytime soon.

[Joe Matthew]

Okay. Is this a tough time to be named Corey Lewandowski when you're not actually in the Cabinet?

[Mick Mulvaney]

No. Cory's got a good relationship with the president going back. People who underestimate Corey Lewandowski's ability to work with President Trump do so at their own.

[Joe Matthew]

Their own peril.

[Mick Mulvaney]

I know Corey gets a lot of rap in the press, but he and the president are very close, have been for a long time. And look, is the president capable at some point of cutting ties with Corey Lewandowski? Yes, But I think it will be a much colder day in a much hotter place than what you guys are experiencing in Iowa, in Minneapolis today.

[Joe Matthew]

I got you, Mick Mulvaney. Boy, this is fascinating to hear your reaction to all of this. So let's fast forward three, four hours to the speech in Des Moines. What will be the president's posture? And is this going to be the same message that we heard in Detroit and in Pennsylvania?

[Mick Mulvaney]

I hope it's. If it is, it should be the same topic, which is the economy. I hope it's a more focused meeting than speech than it was in Detroit. I don't think that speech went over very well, but of course, that was a different audience. It is completely within. What conversations would I have been having with the President last 24 hours? Mr. President, we're losing on immigration. I can't believe I'm saying that, because it's an 85% issue for us. But we are getting killed on immigration. Let's go talk about the economy, please. We can get people back on our side on the. On immigration, but let's let things calm down and go back to affordability, back to the economy. We've got some decent policies. Let's go talk about them, and let's get back talking about what the voters want us to talk about, which is stuff that impacts them directly. So my Guess is, and it's an educated guess, you will see a focus on the economy today, as you should, as you should see from the president. And hopefully they'll let this, they'll find a way to simmer things down in Minneapolis and across the country on immigration so they can reclaim the high ground on that at a later date before the midterms.

[Joe Matthew]

Really interesting. Mick, would you also counsel him on maybe trying to avoid a government shutdown? I can't even believe I'm asking you about this with four days to go here. But there is a thought, at least among Republicans in the Senate that he could take some executive actions to try to sort of rein in the activities of ICE that might dislodge enough Democrats to pass the DHS funding bill. Or is this, this is crazy talk. We're shutting down on Friday night.

[Mick Mulvaney]

Yeah, this is tough. This is really, really tough. Cuz I put myself in the seats of the Democrat senators. Not that I'm either of those things. I'm not a Democrat nor a senator, but I've been around the town a little bit. I don't know how they don't take a hard line. It's almost like that we're going to sleepwalk into a shutdown because the Democrats don't have a way out. I don't know how they go to their constituents and say Donald Trump gave us his word that he would make executive changes. So we went ahead and voted for DHS funding. I just don't know if that sells. They want to sell it. I don't think they want to shut down any more than anybody else because they know that if they, once they get into a shutdown, getting out is really hard. And who always loses a shutdown? The side that shuts down to try and get something else, which is what they would be doing here. But honestly, Joe, I don't know how you don't go into shutdown because I just don't think the trust levels are there, if there's any. Plus, you've got a situation we haven't talked about yet, which I'm not sure if they change anything in the Senate bills, if the House can pass that when they come back. Plus I don't think the House is going to be there in full force until after Friday anyway. So you put all that together, put all that math together and you know, I'm at about 85% on at least a short term shutdown over the weekend.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's the conventional wisdom here, Mick. I can't believe everything I'm hearing from you. You're confirming a lot of, a lot of tough news. Did you hear 85 seconds to midnight? They reset the Doomsday Clock. Seems like an appropriate day for it, Mick. Right.

[Mick Mulvaney]

There's nothing like a good affirmation in the afternoon. Right? That's always, everybody needs that every now.

[Joe Matthew]

And then that those weren't the words to the song. Mick, it's great to have you back. Mick Mulvaney with us live on Bloomberg TV and Radio. I can't wait to hear what the panel thinks about this, and I'm glad to say that Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino are with us. Fascinating read on Mick Mulvaney. We'll have to get that online. Indeed. By the way, citing a worldwide failure of leadership, the Doomsday clock set to 85 seconds to midnight that happened this morning, the closest it has ever been to catastrophe. Stay with us On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Advertisement Voice]

You need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click, building slides faster than ever before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design, do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat. Learn [e-mail] do that with Acrobat.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30.

[Joe Matthew]

David Kaushal is spending time with us right now as we look ahead to the President's arrival in Iowa. That's where he's going. Of course, later on, in fact, he'll be speaking likely during the late edition of Balance of Power. It's going to turn out to be around 4 or 5 o' clock Eastern Time according to the schedule. As we consider the message here, David, the president has been spending a lot of time talking about geopolitics. Your first answer pointed us to, well, if he's on message, it will resonate with the crowd there. That's been a wild card depending on the speech that you look at. How is it, how important is it for him to physically be in the state, to actually leave the bubble here and show up in person in states that favor Donald Trump?

[David Kaushal]

Yeah, well, Susie Wiles telegraphed this some months back saying, you know, he's going to get out around the country. I was a place where he's been many, many, many times. He's been on the ballot there five times. He's won four times all three general elections in the 2024 caucuses. Comfortable in Iowa. And I think he thinks of Iowans as his people. You know, we voted for him by almost double digits the first time around and I think, what, 13 last time. So, you know, he's comfortable there. It's a good place to send him. And of course it's Trump. So who knows if he's going to be completely on message. He likes to do the weave sometimes. His fans encourage that and they want to hear the hits. He's going to play some of the hits, I'm sure. But he does have a lot of things that I think need to be said that he can say that I think will land well with Iowans. Energy affordability, forward looking on the economy and help is on the way for the farmers. And, you know, he gets that in his bones. He definitely internalized those messages when he came to Iowa and spent so much time there throughout the caucus process. So he knows exactly what to do. You know, it's a roll of the dice to see whether or not he'll do it. I think he probably will because I do think, particularly over the last weekend and for some time now, you mentioned the December polls. I think this administration knows that they need to turn a few things. Iowa is the kind of place where they can get some of that started. And if he can stay on message, I think he can have a successful visit. By the way, I'll also mention Iowa's a really critical swing state in this upcoming cycle. We have four Republican members of Congress, two Republican senators. We've got a retiring Joni Ernst. We've got an open Senate seat with Ashley Hinson leading the charge for the Republicans. We've got three of those four congressional districts are very competitive and have been competitive within a point or two even in the last couple of cycles. Iowa is really ground zero for control of Congress, particularly the House, but also in the Senate. So it's meaningful that he's there because Republicans need to kind of get their mojo back. And he's pretty good. One thing he can do is he can bring enthusiasm to his base and a lot of people will come out for him when they won't necessarily come out for every other Republican. So having him there, I think the party thinks that this is going to be a net plus. And I'm hopeful for the Republican candidates that I know appreciate that this will be net benefit for them.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, Dave, I'm glad you mentioned that. Is there a chance we get endorsements this evening? Are you hoping that we do from Trump?

[David Kaushal]

Could be. He's already endorsed Ashley Hinson for Senate. I believe he's in about the governor's race. Miller Meeks, he is not endorsed in the governor's race. That's something definitely to watch for this evening. Randy Feenstra is the leading candidate. He's definitely got the most kind of the broadest base of support right now. Certainly has a financial advantage on his opponents. But, you know, we'll see what President Trump does. He, you know, Randy's got a very good base coming out of northwest Iowa where, you know, a lot of Republicans live. So we'll see what he does. I don't have any inside information on that, but I can tell you that's one of the things that we should be watching because that will, that will certainly make a statement in that race.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, really, really fascinating. I want you to point us toward Minneapolis by way of Iowa, if you would. These ICE raids and the controversy that we've been seeing and you're hearing us talk about this. You heard the president was just asked about it just now. We know that there's a labor shortage in Iowa that many farms are dealing with because of the crackdown on immigration. Does that affect or color the way Iowan voters look at this issue?

[David Kaushal]

A little bit. You know, this is a really mixed bag. Obviously, a vast majority of Iowans support what he's done on the border to shut down illegal immigration. There's no longer people flooding across the border. That has immense support and it's meaningful to our people in Iowa. But, yeah, there are concerns about workforce. I think that's probably also true in Minnesota. And Midwesterners by nature are pretty understated. They don't like the theatrics. They don't like the masks and the, you know, and the automatic weapons and the long coats and all of that. And I think there's a, there is a, an element of chaos and in some of these internal enforcement practices that even Republicans are uncomfortable with. And obviously, the shooting over the weekend is a tragedy. I'm glad that he appears to be looking to turn down the temperature because the initial message out of Secretary Noem and Greg Bovino were really not helpful. And I think he's going to do what he can. I hope in this visit to help Turn down the temperature because it's certainly is, it's a powder keg up there. And, you know, Iowans and Minnesotans were famously nice people, but I do think some of these folks, particularly these Lutheran Progressives in Minnesota are being pushed a little bit to the brink. And it's been sad to watch through the weekend.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's really interesting to hear you talk about this, Dave. We just saw a headline as you were speaking from the Minnesota Star Tribune. Governor Walz has met with Tom Homan. So you think this, this change in rhetoric and this turn by the president is well timed?

[David Kaushal]

I think it's well timed and I think it's overdue. Look, I don't think we should have been in this situation in the first place. Obviously, Border Patrol doesn't have as much to do, so they're dispatching them to Minnesota. And if you think about it just in terms of the raw politics, which is my business, you know, Minnesota Democrats were on their back heels. They're, you know, they're embroiled in a, in a fraud scandal reaching into the billion. It's not just a Somali immigrant problem, but that's a big part of it. They were on the defensive. And then you send in a force of 2 or 3,000 ICE members and border Patrol and create this chaos that distracts from a message that was actually pretty good for Republicans. So I think you need to turn down the temperature. I think President Trump knows it. I think that's part of why he's there. He's coming to Iowa. It's, that's part of what his message will be today, at least I hope. Because if we can get the issues back to what's really more meaningful for people, which is their own pocketbooks, that's where Republicans do better.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, he's on his way, Dave. Air Force One is wheels up, on its way to Des Moines, and we'll be tracking the president, of course, and bringing you his remarks later on. He's set to speak about four hours from now if things stay relatively on time. He helped to greatly enrich our coverage, coverage of the Iowa caucuses. David Kochel, great to have you back, Dave. It's good to see you and we appreciate the insights here. Owner of Red Wave Communications with us live on Bloomberg. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Advertisement Voice]

You need to make a huge presentation in an hour. Luckily, Adobe Acrobat Studio uses AI to take all your documents and generate a presentation with a single click, building slides faster than ever. Before. So if you need a last minute pitch deck, do that with Acrobat. Need to level up your presentation design? Do that with acrobat. You have 30 plus documents that need to be simplified into a proposal. Do that with Acrobat. Learn [e-mail] do that with Acrobat.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

The President speaking today, by the way, on his way out of town. I think we've established this hour he's going to be in Des Moines later to deliver a speech on affordability. Was asked in the driveway as he made his way to Marine One about what's happening in Minneapolis. Doing a big investigation is the headline on the terminal. I will watch over it knowing that he posted on Truth Social yesterday that he was dispatching Tom Homan to Des Moines. And remember what he said. He will report directly to me. That means not Kristi Noem. Now, Holman has already met with the governor. He sat down with Tim Walls and he's gonna be meeting with Jacob Fry, the mayor of Minneapolis on his first visit there today. Something tells me he's gonna be there for a minute. You know who else is speaking is the mayor of St. Paul. Yeah. Remember the Twin Cities, all part of these same targeted actions as ICE has been calling them. And we spent some time last evening on the late edition of Balance of Power with Kali her this is the mayor of St. Paul who has been on the job for three weeks. Can you imagine? This is her only reality that has come in the throes of this controversy. Here's what she said about the shooting and killing last weekend.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Alex was not at a protest. It was a morning in which he just happened to be in a space in which he saw activity and he wanted to go and document. I think that it is dangerous when we say that just because people are.

[Joe Matthew]

Gathering or they exist is that they are protesting.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

They are not. They know that their neighbors have been.

[Joe Matthew]

Taken off of the streets, that people.

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Are being ripped out of their homes forcibly, that people are having children and families ripped of part. And so when our neighbors see each other hurting and impacted, we show up.

[Joe Matthew]

Let's assemble our political panel for their take on everything that's happened in the past 24 hours, even the past 12 hours. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino are with us. Rick is our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Jeannie, our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Jeannie, what do we think of this two hour meeting in the Oval Office? The New York Times has the story, of course. This is Kristi Noem and Corey Lewandowski at her request, I will note. Interesting. Who was not in the room in Stephen Miller. But of course many were in the room for this conversation including Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Press Secretary Caroline Levitt and others. She is not being dispatched to Minneapolis today. What's happening inside the White House?

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Yeah, just a fascinating reports coming out of that meeting. As you mentioned, Stephen Miller absent even though he probably has the hardest line on immigration. Smart that he stays trying to stay below the fray at this point, which is not Stephen Miller's style. But I think it speaks to the fact that Lewandowski and Kristi Noem understand what a debacle this has been both strategically, politically from a policy perspective. You know, last year there was some talk that Kristi Noem may be moved out of DHS to an ambassadorship. And one of the big values that Donald Trump said she brought to the team, if you will, was the fact that she was really good at communicating and really good on television. And that's what she was known for going down to seek, parading around with cameras. And yet this weekend, as Susie Wiles vetted those calls coming in, frantic calls about how bad this was, Kristine Olme suddenly lost that edge. And so she's got to be wondering, rightly so, what does she bring to the table? I think at this point she's hanging on because Wiles and Trump don't want to see a lot of turnover. But I wouldn't be surprised if she is moved somewhere else in the in the short term. And I think we're going to see a lot of leaks out of dhs. People very upset with the way she has managed this from top to bottom. That's going to make her situation a lot worse.

[Joe Matthew]

What's your read on this moment in time here, Rick? It does feel like pieces are moving. And when the president says Tom Homan reports directly to me, what should the Homeland Security secretary think?

[Rick Davis]

Well, Holman is a White House staffer, so that's actually not news. He does report directly to the president. He's not a part of the department. He's the czar. And so I wouldn't read a whole lot into that. The reality is that Noem is in the doghouse. She's put herself there, and not just because of, you know, her response to, you know, Alex Preddy's killing, but for doing this repeatedly over a long period of time Since July, Homeland security has shot 16 individuals, hasn't killed them all, but they've shot him. And in every single instance, the department walks out and immediately claims innocence on the part of the shooter without any investigation. And I do think this is one of the reasons why Donald Trump went out of his way today while boarding Marine One, to say there will be a thorough investigation, something we haven't heard heard from his Department of Justice or from the Department of Homeland Security in any of these kinds of conversations. So now we're going to see how the feds can work with the state in this investigation, because now if the investigation is undermined in any way, it's going to taint the entire administration storyline. So I think we've got a lot going on here. I mean, you know, Krissi Noemes have not made any friends on Capitol Hill. And with an upcoming hearing in March, the question now is, will she still be secretary by then?

[Joe Matthew]

Well, well, that is a question. How about Bovino? Rick, you've got a line. When somebody is in trouble, they're in the barrel. I'm guessing you describe this moment as Bovino in the barrel. What happens to him now that he goes back to California?

[Rick Davis]

Great alliteration. Way to go, Joe. Couldn't have said it better myself. Look, I mean, his tactics are well known, right? He is the tip of the spear. When he's gone into these cities, California, Minneapolis, places like that. His job is to disrupt. He's not there to do normal policing or gather up people. He's there to disrupt the community, to make people forced to have to take sides on this issue. And he was withdrawn from Minneapolis, but also his team, I mean, these are basically the equivalent of stormtroopers in the United States government. Government. And I'm sure that there are people within the White House, Stephen Miller, who believe that his tactics are justified somehow. But he's going to become a crudgel for this administration if he isn't already. And it's not surprising to me that he's been sent out of the state because the disruption that he has caused is actually hurting the administration and its political prospects in that state in the future.

[Joe Matthew]

Jeannie, they've taken Greg Bovino off social media. You see this? He's not able to use his X account now, which he was using pretty aggressively, to go after critics, to post appearances on cable news and so forth. He's been going at it with lawmakers on X, yet he continues to lead operations around the country, according to the administration. How do you have both? How long can this last?

[Podcast Host/Announcer]

Yeah, we're going to all miss his long green jacket, Joe Matthew and his, you know, he was, he had just like Kristi Noem and like Stephen Miller and some of these other folks. That has been what they have done. Spent a lot of time on social media, followed around by cameras. And you know, this has been something that Donald Trump has always found attractive. And yet now what we are seeing is it is starting to drag his numbers down and so they are moving these people off. It makes sense. It is a little bit too late by my estimation. But I think we should also be cautious here because you remember the old Peter Drucker line. And I know Bloomberg folks know Peter Drucker, that when an organization's in crisis, you don't just change the people at the top. You really have to look at the rules of the game, at the policies at operations. That is what is missing here, at least so far. Sure, you have replaced Bovino, you have replaced Noem and maybe Lewandowski. You've put home in up front, that's fine. But it doesn't change the operations, the policies and the culture that has been driving what has been happening on the ground in Minneapolis and across the country. That is a problem. And when we think about what's going to hold up government funding and potentially shut down the government on the Democratic side, that is it. Because you can't simply say we're going to move this person off and all things are better. Now look over here at this shiny object and things will be fine. There is a stink in the DHS and in Border Patrol that needs to be addressed. And if they don't put out plans to address it, that is going to be a big problem.

[Joe Matthew]

You know, a couple of senators, both Republicans, are up with a proposal. Rick and I know we only have about a minute left here. This is Katie Britt and Susan Collins. Collins, they're holding initial discussions, they say, around actions by Trump, executive actions that could be taken outside of the legislative process to rein in ICE enforcement. Democrats are saying that that's not enough. Is there any way we could prevent the government shut down by something like this?

[Rick Davis]

Well, I do think the first order of events should be Congress exerts its own jurisdiction. Here they are the oversight of these executive branch agencies. And frankly, I think it's great that Senator Grassley said he's going to hold a hearing in March. I mean, people are getting killed in the streets of America today and he's going to delay this for two months. Come on, where is the oversight there? So before you start giving the President more power in order to oversee his own agencies, I suggest Congress step up.

[Joe Matthew]

Very real take from our great panel, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime [e-mail] these days it seems like AI agents are just about everywhere you turn every field and every function. But without identity, you can't trust they'll serve your business instead of jeopardizing it. Fortunately, Okta helps you get identity rights by securing your AI agents identities, giving you a single layer of control, a single standard of trust. So whether an AI agent supports a single user or your entire enterprise, with Okta you'll turn risk into opportunity. Secure every agent, secure any agent. Okta secures AI so do healthier choices.

[Advertisement Voice]

Really pay off with prescription plans from CVS Caremark? They do. Their plan designs give you more choice, which gives members more ways to get on, stay on and manage their meds.

[Joe Matthew]

And that helps you control your costs.

[Advertisement Voice]

Because healthier members are better for business. Go to CMK Co Access to learn more about helping your members stay adherent. That's CMK Co accession.