Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode: Trump Backs Noem, Shifts Minnesota Plan
Date: January 27, 2026
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg), with Kailey Leinz
Notable Guests: Alicia Caldwell, Mick Mulvaney, David Kochel, Rick Davis, Jeannie Shan Zaino

Overview

This episode of Balance of Power dives into the White House’s shifting strategy on immigration enforcement in Minnesota following the controversial killing of Alex Preddy by federal agents. The hosts and guests analyze President Trump’s attempt to pivot the national conversation back to affordability and the economy, amidst internal White House turmoil, public unrest in Minneapolis, and the looming threat of a federal government shutdown linked to DHS funding. Key political maneuvers—including the role of Kristi Noem, the deployment of Tom Homan, and the sidelining of Greg Bovino—are scrutinized for their policy and political implications ahead of Trump’s Iowa speech.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. White House Response to Minneapolis Controversy

• Trump's Comments on Investigation

  • Trump, departing for Iowa, promised a "big investigation" into Alex Preddy’s death by federal officers, vowing personal oversight.
    • Quote: “We're doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I'm going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation. He said, I have to see it myself.” — Joe Matthew recounting Trump’s remarks [01:19]

• Policy Directives Outlined by Administration:

  • Turn over all criminal illegal aliens in state custody to federal authorities for deportation.
  • Local law enforcement to collaborate with federal agencies on apprehending illegal aliens.
  • Local police must support federal agents, especially relating to violent crimes.
    • Quote (Caroline Levitt, Press Secretary):
      "He has outlined a clear and simple path to restoring law and order in Minnesota…” [02:35]

2. Local Perspective from Minneapolis

• Alicia Caldwell, Bloomberg Immigration Reporter, gives an on-the-ground update:

  • Mixed and unclear response from state and local officials; resistance to using local police for federal immigration enforcement.

  • Minneapolis Police Department is "shorthanded," with about 600 officers vs. 3,000 federal agents at peak, making federal requests "a big ask."

    • Quote: “Historically, the answer has been largely no, that local police don’t have a role in enforcing federal immigration law. It’s a civil procedure.” — Alicia Caldwell [03:53]

  • Community remains tense but hopes for resolution; resident attitudes are “relief, but tampered with wait and see approaches.”

    • Quote: “...overheard one person describe they can’t wait to dance in the street when everything is official and over. But for now, things are still really tense.” — Alicia Caldwell [05:11]

3. White House Infighting & Staffing Changes

• Tom Homan Replaces Kristi Noem in Minneapolis Oversight:

  • Trump sends Homan to take charge, reporting directly to him—not Noem—signaling a shift in authority and another pivot on handling the situation.

• Assessments from Mick Mulvaney (Former Acting Chief of Staff):

  • Sees the shift as “an all of administration pivot,” unprecedentedly swift for Trump.
    • Quote: “We’ve not seen a pivot this significant this quickly from Donald Trump ever.” — Mick Mulvaney [09:09]
  • DHS messaging criticized as “tin-eared,” having aggravated the political fallout.
  • Predicts Noem will not be fired but may be moved; a resignation may be refused by Trump.
    • Quote: “I cannot imagine them firing her over this. If she offered her resignation, the president said no. That sounds like it's probably the appropriate way for it to go.” — Mick Mulvaney [11:01]

• Oval Office Meeting Dynamics:

  • Kristi Noem requested a key Oval Office meeting; notably absent was Stephen Miller, Trump’s chief immigration strategist.
    • Quote: “To have an immigration meeting in the Oval Office without Stephen Miller is… like you and me having a market update, not talking about the Dow.” — Mick Mulvaney [11:58]
  • Corey Lewandowski’s continuing closeness to Trump is noted, despite not holding an official role.
    • Quote: "People who underestimate Corey Lewandowski's ability to work with President Trump do so at their own peril." — Mick Mulvaney [12:43]

4. Political Ramifications & Reset Messaging

• Pivot Back to Economy/Affordability:

  • Trump aims to refocus on economic issues in his Iowa speech, with advisers urging a reset as immigration politics become a liability.
    • Quote: “Mr. President, we’re losing on immigration… Let’s go talk about the economy, please.” — Mick Mulvaney [13:24]

• Government Shutdown Looms:

  • Guests discuss the likelihood of a short-term federal shutdown due to lack of trust between parties over DHS funding and ICE practices.
    • Quote: “I’m at about 85% on at least a short-term shutdown over the weekend.” — Mick Mulvaney [15:45]

5. Iowa Visit: Strategic Importance

• David Kochel (GOP Strategist) on Iowa’s Role:
  • Trump comfortable in Iowa, will try to energize base and refocus on economic successes.
  • Iowa is critical for the upcoming cycle; expectations of endorsements for key GOP races.
    • Quote: “Iowa is really ground zero for control of Congress… Having him there, I think the party thinks that this is going to be a net plus.” — David Kochel [19:43]
  • Immigrant labor shortage is a concern in Iowa, potentially complicating response to immigration crackdowns.

6. Situation in the Twin Cities & Community Impact

• St. Paul Mayor Kali Her speaks out following the shooting:
  • Quote: “Alex was not at a protest. It was a morning in which he just happened to be in a space in which he saw activity and he wanted to go and document. I think that it is dangerous when we say that just because people are gathering or they exist is that they are protesting. They are not. They know that their neighbors have been taken off of the streets, that people are being ripped out of their homes forcibly.” — Kali Her [27:40]

7. Panel Analysis: Political Dynamics & DHS Turbulence

• Jeannie Shan Zaino (Democrat Analyst):

  • Noem’s position increasingly precarious amid communication missteps; previous value as a communicator seems lost.
  • Expectation of further staff leaks and possible reassignment.
    • Quote: “She’s got to be wondering, rightly so, what does she bring to the table? I think at this point she’s hanging on because Wiles and Trump don’t want to see a lot of turnover.” — Jeannie Shan Zaino [29:46]

• Rick Davis (Republican Strategist):

  • Tom Homan’s direct report to Trump not unusual, but Noem is “in the doghouse.”
  • Bovino’s tactics disruptive; his removal from Minnesota signals acknowledgment of political damage.
    • Quote: “…these are basically the equivalent of stormtroopers in the United States government. And I'm sure that there are people within the White House, Stephen Miller, who believe that his tactics are justified somehow. But he’s going to become a cudgel for this administration if he isn't already.” — Rick Davis [32:27]
  • Suggests Congressional oversight is overdue regarding federal law enforcement’s actions, not just administrative shuffling.

• Broader Reflection:

  • Both panelists emphasize that changing figureheads (Noem, Bovino, Homan) is insufficient if core policies, culture, and operations of federal immigration enforcement remain unchanged.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Trump on investigation:
  “We're doing a big investigation. I want to see the investigation. I'm going to be watching over it. I want a very honorable and honest investigation." — Joe Matthew recounting Trump's remarks [01:19]

• Caroline Levitt on restoring order:
  “Outlined a clear and simple path to restoring law and order in Minnesota…” [02:35]

• Alicia Caldwell on local law enforcement’s limits:
  “Historically, the answer has been largely no, that local police don’t have a role in enforcing federal immigration law.” [03:53]

• Mick Mulvaney on Trump’s pivot:
  “We’ve not seen a pivot this significant this quickly from Donald Trump ever.” [09:09]

• Kali Her, St. Paul mayor, on public trauma:
  “It is dangerous when we say that just because people are gathering or they exist is that they are protesting. They are not. They know that their neighbors have been taken off of the streets, that people are being ripped out of their homes forcibly...” [27:40]

• Jeannie Shan Zaino on Noem’s standing:
  “She’s got to be wondering, rightly so, what does she bring to the table? I think at this point she’s hanging on because Wiles and Trump don’t want to see a lot of turnover.” [29:46]

• Rick Davis on Bovino’s removal:
  “He was withdrawn from Minneapolis, but also his team, I mean, these are basically the equivalent of stormtroopers in the United States government… the disruption that he has caused is actually hurting the administration and its political prospects in that state in the future.” [32:27]

Timestamps Overview

| Segment | Description | Timestamp | |-------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------| | President’s remarks, focus | Trump promises investigation, pivots to affordability, local/fed tension in MN | 01:02-03:21| | Alicia Caldwell (Minneapolis) | Community mood, law enforcement tension, ICE-federal-local conflicts | 03:21-06:46| | Mick Mulvaney analysis | Pivot, Noem’s future, staffing, Oval Office meeting, GOP messaging shift | 09:06-16:21| | David Kochel on Iowa | Iowa’s political value, expected messaging, impact of immigration policies on local economy | 17:49-24:03| | Mayor Kali Her (St. Paul) | Community trauma, labeling of “protest,” ICE raids, disruption of family and community stability | 27:40-28:09| | Political panel | DHS internal strife, leadership questions, Congressional inaction, broader organizational issues | 28:09-36:46|

Conclusion

This episode documents a crisis-driven reset within the Trump White House as it attempts to reassert control after a local tragedy and national backlash over aggressive immigration enforcement tactics in Minnesota. The discussion reveals a tense standoff between political expediency, policy failure, and the real-world consequences for American communities—all under the shadow of a potential government shutdown.

The balance of political commentary, on-the-ground reporting, and insider perspective offers an intimate portrait of a White House under pressure, struggling to change the narrative while managing fractious internal politics and mounting public scrutiny.