Trump Begins UK State Visit

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power (Bloomberg) Episode: Trump Begins UK State Visit Date: September 17, 2025

Overview of the Episode

This episode centers on former President Donald Trump's unprecedented second UK state visit, covering its political, diplomatic, and economic implications. Bloomberg correspondents and political analysts provide on-the-ground insights from Windsor Castle, assess the domestic and international challenges facing both President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and discuss the broader geopolitical context. The conversation then shifts to the political drama on Capitol Hill, including prospects of a U.S. government shutdown and the persistent undercurrents of partisanship and political violence.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The State Visit: Pageantry, Substance, and Protest

Location and Atmosphere:

• President Trump and the First Lady have arrived for a state visit, with significant pomp at Windsor Castle, making this an "unprecedented" second invitation for a U.S. president (01:15).
• Anne Marie Hordern details the ceremonial events—flyover, luncheon with royals, wreath-laying at Queen Elizabeth’s tomb, and a notable upcoming state banquet with top U.S. business executives.

Business and Economic Significance:

• The visit aims to become "more substantive on the economic business front" during tonight's banquet with executives such as Larry Fink (BlackRock), Jensen Wang (NVIDIA), and Tim Cook (Apple) (01:49).
  • Notably, Tim Cook’s attendance addresses his conspicuous absence on Trump’s earlier Middle East trip.

Political Undertones and Protests:

• The visit isn't without controversy, as protesters projected an image of Trump and Jeffrey Epstein onto Windsor Castle and displayed large protest banners (03:16).
  • This is compounded by the recent resignation of UK Ambassador Peter Mandelson over Epstein-related revelations.
• Despite protests, there is “a mixed bag” of support and opposition among crowds, with visible MAGA gear and enthusiastic Trump supporters also present (03:55).

Notable Quote:

“I saw a lot of ‘Make America Great Again’ hats, other hats that said ‘Trump Was Right About Everything’ ... So I would say there has been some mixed responses right outside the castle gates.”
— Anne Marie Hordern (04:15)

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2. Political and Diplomatic Challenges for PM Keir Starmer

• The UK’s political climate has soured for Starmer: a YouGov poll puts his favorability at just 22%, "one of the worst favorabilities we have in all of Western European leaders" (05:21).
• Seven months earlier, this visit was seen as a diplomatic coup, improving post-Brexit U.S.–UK relations, but “it’s completely different political environment right now for the Prime Minister,” making the timing inopportune (05:47).
  • Despite this, the UK jumped to “the top of the queue when it comes to the trade relationship.”

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3. Press Conference and Sensitive Issues

• Both leaders are expected to hold a bilateral news conference, likely facing questions about the Epstein controversy, recent protests, and wider geopolitical issues (04:57). Both administrations are expected to deflect as much as possible (07:14).

Notable Quote:

“Donald Trump’s pretty good about wandering around in an answer to keep it from becoming a dominant theme.”
— Rick Davis (07:36)

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4. Broader Geopolitical Issues

• Anticipated topics: Ukraine, Gaza, immigration (notably recent large anti-immigration protests in London), trade negotiations, and European regulatory reform (07:53, 12:05).
• Trump is seen as advancing a mercantile foreign policy, bringing executives along to reinforce U.S. economic interests (10:38).

Notable Quote:

“If Donald Trump says, ‘Hey, the posse is going to Great Britain,’ I think they’re going to saddle up and head in his direction.”
— Rick Davis (11:21)

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5. The State of the U.S., Policy Fights, and Shutdown Anxiety

Government Shutdown Prospects (16:47–22:52)

• Tensions rise over the Continuing Resolution (CR) to avert a government shutdown, with Republicans pushing for a “clean CR” and Democrats demanding additions like Obamacare subsidy extensions.
• Alex Conant (Firehouse Strategies):
  • Expresses skepticism about the political wisdom of repeated shutdown threats, noting the cyclical nature and low likelihood of a win for the minority party (18:04, 19:35).
  • Predicts eventual compromise, though Democrats risk negative public opinion if they force a shutdown.
  • Senator John Fetterman is cited as a moderate voice, opposing hostage tactics over government funding (21:09).

Notable Quote:

“I refuse absolutely to vote for anything, whether that’s to shut our government down… it’s unacceptable to hold the government… opening or closing as a hostage.”
— Sen. John Fetterman (21:25)

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6. Toxic Partisanship and Political Violence

Discussion on Political Rhetoric and Security (22:52–26:32)

• Host and panelists discuss the heightened toxicity in U.S. politics, exacerbated by recent violence (notably, the shooting of Charlie Kirk).
  • Alex Conant reflects on worsening partisanship over two decades: “This did not just happen in the last week. It’s not Donald Trump’s fault. This—the rhetoric, the personal nature of politics—has been getting exponentially worse for the last 20 years.” (23:41)
• There is concern for increased security for lawmakers and public figures due to rising threats and anger in the country (25:21).
• The nature of political leadership and public sentiment is debated—do leaders set the tone, or do they reflect an increasingly polarized electorate? (25:58)

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7. Gerrymandering and Political Strategy (26:32–27:15)

• Redistricting is making several previously safe congressional districts more competitive, possibly increasing polarization, but also providing more “purple” districts that could moderate politics—depending on the broader political climate.
• Both parties are gambling the shifting landscape will advantage them, but there's possibility of backfire if national sentiment swings unexpectedly.

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Notable Quotes and Memorable Moments

• Economic Dinner:
  “This evening when the President attends the banquet, he’s going to be flanked by a number of American executives... Notably reports that Tim Cook of Apple also going to be one of those individuals attending the state banquet at Windsor Castle.”
  — Anne Marie Hordern (01:49)

• Mixed Reactions:
  “I saw a lot of make America great hat again, hats... some dogs walking around with MAGA wear as well.”
  — Anne Marie Hordern (04:15)

• Trump’s Style at the Press Conference:
  “Donald Trump’s pretty good about wandering around in an answer to keep it from becoming a dominant theme.”
  — Rick Davis (07:36)

• Elon Musk Protest Quote:
  “Who was there to speak, at least via virtually, was Elon Musk. And what did he say? He said, ‘Whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming for you.’ And of course, the Prime Minister condemned those remarks.”
  — Jeannie Shan Zaino (09:15)

• Political Cynicism and Leadership:
  “You know, this is like both—we’re getting the leaders that are… that we voted for. And so I think… national leadership can help set the tone for environments, but at the end of the day that national leadership’s, I think, reflecting the broader public sentiment.”
  — Alex Conant (26:00)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [01:15] – On-the-ground description of Trump’s ceremonial welcome and upcoming economic dinner
• [03:16] – Description of protests and political sensitivities linked to Jeffrey Epstein
• [04:57] – Preview of expected press conference and UK political climate
• [07:14] – Panel discussion: how media and politicians will navigate sensitive topics
• [08:54] – Immigration protests, free speech, and transatlantic strain
• [10:38] – Significance of bringing business leaders on the trip
• [12:05] – Outlook for trade, regulation, and mergers talks
• [16:47] – U.S. government shutdown and political wrangling
• [21:25] – Sen. Fetterman’s position on shutdown tactics
• [22:52] – Political polarization and security after political violence
• [26:32] – New gerrymandering strategies and their potential effects

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Conclusion

This episode offers a layered portrait of international diplomacy against a backdrop of domestic upheaval—showing how state visits can be as much about optics and economic strategy as they are about repairing or displaying transatlantic alliances. Meanwhile, U.S. political dysfunction—on display via budget battles, hyper-partisan rhetoric, and security fears—remains unresolved and looming, for both the White House and Congress.

Transcript

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[Brett Baer]

We're going to start in the Where President Trump and the first lady are now embarking on a full day of pomp and circumstance, having arrived last evening for an unprecedented second state visit, traveling with the President, Bloomberg's Anne Marie Hordern, who joins us from Windsor Castle. Anne Marie, how's it going so far?

[Anne Marie Hordern]

Well, there's been a lot of pomp and circumstance, as you say, Joe, a ton of theater on display today between a flyover, a luncheon with the royal family, as well as laying a wreath at the tomb of late Queen Elizabeth, who of course the President met on his first state visit to the United Kingdom in 2019. Before departing, the President did say outside the White House that it is unprecedented that he got this honor to come back to United Kingdom for a state visit. He also talked about how last time it was at Buckingham palace in the center of London and this time it's outside the city in Windsor. And he called this setting really the ultimate setting. So the President is very excited about this visit. He said he was going to visit his friend, saying that he has had a decades long, long, decades long relationship with King Charles. We should also note that slowly the state visit will start to feel a little bit more substantive on the economic business front. This evening when the President attends the banquet, he's going to be flanked by a number of American executives, the likes of Larry Fink. Tech executives like Jensen Wang notably reports that Tim Cook of Apple also going to be one of those individuals attending the state banquet at Windsor Castle today. That is really no notable because of course he was absent when the President made that trip to the Middle east and the President made sure everyone was aware, kept bringing it up, that Tim Cook did not join him on that state visit. He's going to be there for this evening and then of Course, tomorrow he'll be sitting down with Prime Minister Keir Starmer where there'll be a lot more discussions about a host of issues.

[Brett Baer]

Anne Marie, outside of the agenda that you've just laid out, outside of the very warm welcome that we were just showing our television audience, our YouTube audience on the screen there, he wasn't necessarily welcomed. Just, just with that, there were plenty of protests, I believe on the scene as well. Walk us through what we know there.

[Anne Marie Hordern]

Well, last night what we saw projected onto the walls of Windsor Castle, this 11th century castle, was a photo of President Donald Trump and the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. There was also protesters that had a tennis court sized banner outside the castle. Of the two as well have been moments of protests and individuals using pictures to protest the president. United States coming here, especially with a hot topic in the United Kingdom such as Jeffrey Epstein, given the fact that the third departure in just two weeks was British Ambassador to the United States Lord Peter Mandelson after the revelations in Bloomberg News emails about his close relationship with Jeffrey Epstein. So this can make quite an awkward moment, of course, as well as Jeffrey Epstein's relationship with as well, one of the individuals, Andrew, in the royal family. But we should also note because I've been outside the castle the entire day, there also have been individuals here excited for President Trump to visit. So it has been a mixed bag. I saw a lot of make America great hat again, hats, other hats that said Trump was right about everything and T shirts, some dogs walking around with MAGA wear as well. So I would say there has been some mixed responses right outside the castle gates.

[Brett Baer]

Well, that's fair reporting. Anne Marie, just quickly, do we know if there's going to be a bilateral news conference? Are these two going to take questions from the media tomorrow? There was some concerns that Epstein would be a featured topic. Do we know if that'll happen?

[Anne Marie Hordern]

Well, at the moment, we are expecting both of these leaders, Prime Minister Keir Starmer and President Donald Trump to address the press tomorrow after they have a bilateral meeting at the prime minister's country estate in Chequers. We should note the president is walking into a very different political environment right now in the United Kingdom than it was seven months ago when Keir Starmer visited Washington, D.C. and handed the president this letter from King Charles inviting him on this unprecedented state visit. You have a prime minister who has been dealt a number of blows over the course of the last two weeks. He is absolutely floundering in the polls. One recent YouGov poll has his favorability just at 22%, one of the worst favorabilities we have in all of Western European leaders. So he is really struggling right now. So for Keir Starmer, it could have been a worse time for this state visit to happen, even though seven months ago a lot of onlookers were saying, look, this was a very clever diplomatic move for the UK Government to pull out, because what happened after that, the United Kingdom has jumped to the top of the queue when it comes to the trade relationship. I was in the Oval Office in May when the president was on speakerphone with the prime minister announcing the trade agreement, which they then signed on the sidelines of the G7. But it's completely different political environment right now for the prime minister and really not the most opportune moment for him to have this state visit with the president of the United States.

[Brett Baer]

Anne Marie, it's great to have you with us from Windsor Castle live, Bloomberg's Anne Marie Hordern, who we'll be hearing more from over the course of this visit. Again, the president, first lady will be there through tomorrow. We want to assemble our political panel for more on this and the other stories we're tracking today in Washington, Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shann Zaino are with us. Jeannie is our Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. Rick, our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capitol. Rick, would you have the president hold the news conference? You saw those images of Jeffrey Epstein projected on the massive tower at Windsor Castle last evening, conversation the administration would prefer not to have. Can you trust the British press, never mind the Americans, to keep that quiet?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, I think for or I think that the prime minister is just as concerned about having to answer questions. As Anne Marie pointed out, he's just lost his US Ambassador, Peter Mandelson, to some of the scandal. But yeah, I mean, obviously that's what they're going to try to avoid. Donald Trump's pretty good about wandering around in an answer to keep it from becoming a dominant theme. And his traveling press will be also looking for opportunities to curry favor with the president. And so it's not likely to be a major topic. And there are interesting things, you know, whether it's what's the standing currently of negotiations for ending the war in Ukraine to what's happening in Gaza, to immigration. They just had a massive rally opposed to immigration in downtown London. The visuals were amazing. I expect that to be right down the center for Donald Trump to want to take a swing at. So, yeah, there's, there's going to be an interesting opportunity to hear exactly how these two politicians under siege a little bit in both their countries are reacting to the world events.

[Brett Baer]

Well, Jeannie, weigh in here. I mean, we know Rick just mentioned those immigration protests as well. There were some questions around free speech and the enforcement of free speech around that as well as, I mean, J.D. vance has previously brought up in London. From your perspective, what might we hear when it comes to a relationship, a transatlantic alliance that could potentially see some strain this week?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Sorry, can you hear me now? Greetings. Sorry about that.

[Brett Baer]

We, we absolutely can't go for it, Jeannie.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

So for all the pageantry and the beautiful pictures that we're seeing and you know, you were just talking and Rick was just talking about this Robinson led protest which was I believe the largest far right demonstration in UK history. And who was there to speak at least via virtually was Elon Musk. And what did he say? He said, whether you choose violence or not, violence is coming for you. And of course the Prime Minister condemned those remarks. But that is quite a stark reminder of this split screen that the people of Great Britain are seeing and of course Americans are seeing. While the President is enjoying all this pageantry, there is the split screen of the Kirk assassination. Issues surrounding surrounding hate speech and free speech, what's happening to public health in this country. And even the President this morning out on social media ranting against the far left. And so I think there's something almost unbelievable for a viewer watching all of this. It just all doesn't seem to add up. And the real question is when they get down to policy, where are they on Ukraine, where are they on the Middle east, where are they on immigration, where are they on tariffs? And what do they do with the likes of the wealthiest man in the world who's going out talking about violence coming for you to great took the people of Great Britain.

[Brett Baer]

Rick, the idea that we've got executives along for the ride again tells you what about the President? Is this just the go forward when it comes to international travel?

[Rick Davis]

Absolutely. You know, he is trying to basically run a mercantile government where we're out there promoting US Businesses and we're demanding that if you want to do business with the U.S. you have to basically become a U.S. business. And, and you know, companies all over the country have made common cause with that. And they realize not just because the federal government is a massive customer and in some cases now making investments in their businesses, it does you no good to ruffle the feathers of Donald Trump. And, and, and the environment that Trump has created with the tariff regime has made it even more important to be in good stead with the government in order to get carve outs when you need them. So if Donald Trump says, hey, the posse is going to Great Britain, I think they're going to saddle up and head in his direction.

[Brett Baer]

But Rick, what about the regulation question here? I mean, famously, a lot of these international companies that have tried to do acquisitions, that have tried to really embrace some of the loosening of regulatory scrutiny from Washington, have found a lot of pushback in the UK I'll give you an example. Microsoft's takeover of Activision was really given clearance in the States, was pushed back very aggressively in the UK this has been a sticking point in trade negotiations. Do you think this is the moment where they might make some progress on that kind of stuff?

[Rick Davis]

I think that there'll probably be a thorough conversation about European reform, both from the commercial sector but also from the military sector. You know, what are you doing to put more pressure on the Russians? You know, you saw Donald Trump in advance of this trip start talking about how the Europeans need to match what he's willing to do and, you know, stop buying Russian oil. I have no doubt that conversations will take place, even if it's at the Scott Besant level, around liberalization of rules governing mergers and acquisitions. As you point out, banking Europe, Europe has a very protective banking sector. We know from people like Jamie Dimon in the past at J.P. morgan that they'd love to have a better presence in Europe. So, yeah, I think there's going to be a fulsome, certainly staff level conversation about some of these reforms. And I think Europe has learned that they need to engage with the Trump administration and find common cause in some of these things because otherwise, you know, you're just going to be held over the barrel when it comes to future negotiations.

[Brett Baer]

Jeannie, President Trump and the first lady are overseas while some pretty high drama, political drama, I should say, unfolds here in the nation's capital, all waiting for him when he gets back, not the least of which is a potential government shutdown A week from now. We've got the Jeffrey Epstein affair that seems to have followed him to Britain and any number of other stories that he's going to have to deal with, including just a day or two after he gets back, the funeral for Charlie Kirk in Arizona. He's going to sit down today with FOX News for an interview. Apparently a couple of hours from now, we'll hear some of his remarks And I don't know if all of these stories are going to factor into it, but what do you make of the timing while we watch him take a ride in a carriage with the king and salute the troops, watch the flyovers and spend the day at Windsor Castle? What's the sort of storyline, if you will, that's going to be waiting for him when he gets back home?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

You know, I think the big story is how much this is just cognitive dissonance for anybody watching this and what the president can do to address some of these issues. He has gone abroad. We've seen this in the modern presidency. Presidents go abroad and oftentimes like he is enjoy this type of pageantry. But the reality is for Donald Trump, he has so many challenges at home, from the budget to political violence to health care. I mean, the list goes on and on. And then you look abroad. Almost everything he promised to do has not been done as you look abroad, including importantly for the Europeans, what's going on in Ukraine. So these are all issues that are waiting for him. And I, you know, I would hope that the anchors or the reporters are talking to him from Fox, ask him about all of these. But the last time he sat down with them, much of his rhetoric was particularly inflamed. Finding an enemy on the left that he could point to and blame for what is happening and that is not going to do much to address any of these situations. And indeed, it makes the challenge of political violence worse.

[Brett Baer]

Well, we'll see if he's going to be watching what comes out of the Federal Reserve today. Maybe we'll get some truths from the UK Jeannie, Shan Zaino and Rick Davis, thank you so much. Bloomberg Politics contributors, stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

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[Brett Baer]

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[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

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[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

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[Brett Baer]

Washington where we're counting down to a potential shutdown. You know that the cable nets haven't started with the countdown clocks yet, right? So it's not really real until that happens. But whenever we talk to lawmakers here, and just in the past couple of days, it doesn't sound like we're close to something. Republicans put out their text for a clean CR yesterday. Democrats don't seem to be in the mood to have any of that. And they're preparing a counteroffer today that will likely include the extension of Obamacare subsidies. There might be more where that came from. Maybe tinkering around with Medicaid following changes in the big beautiful bill. Speaker of the House is ready for it. Mike Johnson talked about it just yesterday.

[Rick Davis]

Listen, Predictably and unfortunately, there are some.

[Alex Conant]

Democrats who are openly pining for a government shutdown in spite of this obvious and necessary step. They're grasping for straws as a party. And so some of them apparently believe that shutting down the government will be some sort of life raft for them.

[Rick Davis]

So they can regain the support of the American people.

[Alex Conant]

I just think that is a fool's gambit.

[Brett Baer]

A fool's gambit. Alex Conant, tell us if this is true. The Republican strategist principal at Firehouse Strategies is back here in our D.C. bureau. You've seen this movie so many times, it almost feels silly to talk about it until like the day before.

[Alex Conant]

Right.

[Brett Baer]

But I mean, lawmakers don't have time for a shutdown on either side of the aisle, do they?

[Alex Conant]

Well, certainly Republicans don't. I mean, I think Republicans really want to enact Donald Trump's agenda and having the government shut down, down, which is a huge short term distraction for that, which is why they've effectively already conceded this fight by saying we will do a clean cr. Traditionally, conservatives hate clean crs, especially crs that continue the funding at Biden level levels of funding. I mean, we're basically continue Biden's fiscal policies with, with, with the cr. They've conceded that they're like, we'll do this for another six weeks. The Democrats are feeling so much pressure from their base that, that they have to make Donald Trump fight. They have to make Donald Trump lose, suffer. And so they're coming up with these things that they want to include in the CR that Republicans are never going to agree to. Ironically, they're related to Obamacare. I worked in the Senate when we were in the minority and Obama was president and we shut down the government over Obamacare stuff. And I remember very vividly going into that fight saying, there is no way we win this fight. It's going to cost a lot of people political capital, but our base is demanding it. So we shut down the government and a couple weeks later we relented. The government reopened. It was a big win for Obama. I think the Democrats are setting themselves up for a similar failure here where they could very well shut down the government in a few weeks, making unreasonable demands on Trump. The public is not going to go along with them on this and they'll eventually concede. The only way that doesn't happen is if the moderates in the Senate, of which there's a handful of Democrats, don't realize that this is a political loser and agreed to break with Schumer and keep the government open, which I think is a real possibility.

[Brett Baer]

Secretary Kennedy demanded the the idea of extending Obamacare tax credits is something that can be handled at some point between now and the end of the year.

[Alex Conant]

Right.

[Brett Baer]

The CRN's Thanksgiving. Mike Johnson this morning said a policy debate at the end of December has nothing to do with a funding proposition in September.

[Alex Conant]

Right.

[Brett Baer]

That type of messaging might make some sense to people. But would that suggest that there is a concerted debate over Obamacare?

[Alex Conant]

Oh, I think there absolutely is. I think that there are a lot of Republicans in the House and the Senate who are concerned about ending these subsidies going into because you know how that polls, of course, it's brutal whenever you take something away from somebody that's going to be unpopular. And so I think that there are a lot of Republicans in both House and the Senate, while they don't like these tax extenders, they're not really looking to or these tax credits, they're not looking to cut them going into a midterm cycle. So I think there is interest in extending them. They just really don't want to do it as part of a standalone cr. They want it to be done in the context of funding the overall government.

[Brett Baer]

Got it.

[Alex Conant]

So I do think that this is going to be on the table this fall. Look, whatever happens in the next couple of weeks here with the government, with whether or not we shut down the government, there is going to be a big funding fight before the end of the year and you're going to have health care drawn into it. You're going to include these Obamacare tax extenders. There's going to be a lot on the plate. And so I think this is not the fight. Right. This is the fight before the fight.

[Brett Baer]

So you're not scheduling the ski vacation for Christmas, it sounds like.

[Alex Conant]

Yeah, I mean, we, we could very well be here on Christmas Eve.

[Brett Baer]

Yeah, it sounds like.

[Alex Conant]

Which it would not be unprecedented.

[Brett Baer]

You've done it before, no doubt. Interesting conversation with Senator Fetterman, of course, a Democrat from Pennsylvania is on with Brett Baer on Fox News talking about all that. Let's listen to what he said. I absolutely, fully support extending the tax credits for the aca, but I refuse absolutely to vote for anything, whether that's to shut our government down. You know, I can agree and strongly.

[Rick Davis]

Believe in something, but that it's unacceptable.

[Brett Baer]

To hold the government, you know, opening or closing as a hostage. And I refuse to be part of it.

[Rick Davis]

So that's going to be where we're at.

[Brett Baer]

And I've been very clear on that. Is John Fetterman actually on the leading edge or will he end up for Democrats?

[Alex Conant]

I mean, look, Fetterman represents that moderate bloc now. He's obviously the most vocal and outspoken of them. But there are a handful of moderates in the Senate, Democrats, Senate Democrats that are facing reelections in the next few years that just aren't looking to shut down the government over a fight that they know that they can't win. If you've been in the Senate for a long time, you know, the minority always loses these shutdown fights, especially when they're the ones making demands. So, look, this is a political loser for them. I think Fetterman recognizes it. I think a lot of them recognize it, but they feel the pressure from the debate to at least show some fight. I've been there. I understand the pressure that they're feeling. And it's hard to tell your base that they're wrong, but their base is wrong.

[Brett Baer]

Interesting. The conversations I can only assume in the coming days are going to decide this. Right. We've got another week off essentially with holidays next week. And then when they come back, they'll have like three days.

[Alex Conant]

The Republicans are going to push forward. The clean CR is going to pass the House. You know, Trump might have to twist a couple arms amongst Republicans, but it'll pass the House. They'll bring it to the Senate floor, and then we'll see if the Democrats blink or not.

[Brett Baer]

Okay. There is a backdrop here of, of corrosion in relationships on Capitol Hill between Democrats and Republicans, just like we're seeing nationally following the shooting of Charlie Kirk. And I wonder where your head is. I think we all consider you a pretty balanced moderate guy yourself an old line Republican. Maybe you can check that. I know you Want me to call you a conservative Republican? Yeah, but a conservative maybe in a.

[Rick Davis]

In a.

[Brett Baer]

In an older sense, if you know what I'm saying here. When it comes to Republican politics, the blame game that's going on right now is one we can all probably agree is pretty dangerous. I just wonder how it impacts policy making. There's a. There's a dual censure effort underway against Ilan Omar right now. Maybe that takes out some of the poison on the floor, but where's the catharsis here? How do we get around it?

[Alex Conant]

Look, I've been working in politics my entire adult life. Worked on lots of presidential campaigns. Bush, White House, Senate, lots of presidential campaigns. And you're right, like this is. This did not just happen in the last week. It's not Donald Trump's fault. This is the rhetoric. The personal nature of politics has been getting exponentially worse for the last 20 years. And I don't know how it turns around. I don't know what would cause it to turn around, but clearly, last week was just poured fuel on a fire.

[Brett Baer]

Feels like a new low.

[Alex Conant]

Yes. And I think for a lot of conservatives who have felt targeted, it became incredibly personal. I think a lot of Democrats, not all of them. I think most Democrats response was totally appropriate, but obviously some of them weren't, and I think they're feeling the backlash now. Where this goes, I don't know. The future is very hard to predict, but clearly it's a very toxic environment and it does make governing harder. Right. Like when both sides have made the debate as personal as it is, it's just harder for lawmakers to craft bipartisan policy, because at the end of the day, to craft lasting policy policies in this country, you need bipartisan support. And that's really hard to do at this moment.

[Brett Baer]

You remember the Capitol Hill shooting back in 1999, I believe it was. Yeah. That really shook the Capitol, shook the city. We weren't really used to. Anybody could walk in the Capitol back then. Remember, you go to anybody's office, didn't even need a chaperone or a badge or a credential at that point. And that was the beginning of the change. Things tightened up a lot more after 911.

[Alex Conant]

More security.

[Brett Baer]

Yeah, but what do we need now? Do lawmakers need details? That's what they're talking about this week.

[Alex Conant]

I think that's totally appropriate. I mean, I think, look, there's a lot of crazy people in this country and a lot of angry people in this country.

[Brett Baer]

And so would you put your candidate in an outdoor event, if you were on the trip.

[Alex Conant]

I know a lot of people in public life and they're scared. Right. Like they're like the environment is very toxic right now. And so I think the minimum we can do is make sure that our public leaders are safe.

[Brett Baer]

Does this require leadership on a political level to get us out of this, to get us to a different level tone and a different conversation? Or is it something, I guess, more bleak than that, that in two or three weeks everybody moves on, the news cycle churns and we're not talking about it anymore?

[Alex Conant]

Well, it's a chicken and an egg argument.

[Brett Baer]

Right.

[Alex Conant]

Like, I think leaders reflect the public opinion. And so look, you know, Donald Trump was elected because that's who Republicans want as their leader. Sure. And you look at the sorts of Democrats that are being nominated right now in state and local elections, that's where the Democratic Party is headed as well. You know, this is like both, we're getting the leaders that are that, that we voted for. And so I think it's a bit of a. So obviously, I think, you know, national leadership can help set the tone for environments. But at the end of the day that national leadership's, I think, reflecting the broader public sentiment.

[Brett Baer]

In the meantime, we're at the beginning of what looks like a spiral of five year gerrymandering. Here is, is the redrawing of congressional map and the positioning we're seeing Democrats and Republicans only going to make the partisanship more extreme?

[Alex Conant]

You know, I think it's going to be interesting to see how this plays out. I mean, ironically, what we're doing is making a lot of these districts way more competitive. You know, you're taking very safe Democratic districts and turning them more purple. And you're taking, and the way you do that is by taking very safe Republican districts and turning them more purple. Both, both parties here are gambling that the political environment is going to be very good for, for them.

[Brett Baer]

Yeah. How true.

[Alex Conant]

But if it's not, this could backlash on one of the parties. So if at the end of the day we have a lot more purple districts, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

[Brett Baer]

So we're back to dummy mandering or something like that. In the meantime, we'll see. This is why people hire. Alex Conant. Great to have you back. Thank you. Firehouse Strategies live with US in Washington D.C. thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcast and you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail] how can you free your.

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