Podcast Summary: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)

Episode: Trump Calls For World’s Lowest Interest Rate, Citing Jobs Data
Date: February 11, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz
Featured Guests: Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg), Pierre Yared (acting chair, White House Council of Economic Advisers), Katie Richards (Groundwork Collaborative, ex-Treasury), Jeannie Shannon Zaino (Democratic analyst), Rick Davis (Republican strategist), Maura Gillespie (Republican strategist)

Episode Overview

This episode zeroes in on key developments within the White House and Capitol Hill, with major focus on President Trump's demand for historically low interest rates in light of new jobs data, ongoing US-Israel-Iran negotiations, congressional pushback against Trump's tariff policy, and legislative brinkmanship surrounding Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding. The hosts are joined by reporters and policy analysts for insight and lively debate, balancing economic discussion with sharp political analysis.

1. U.S.-Israel-Iran Negotiations and White House Dynamics

[00:25–03:51]

• Netanyahu Visits D.C.: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu visits for closed meetings with President Trump regarding potential strikes on Iran and the future of Gaza, underscoring stark differences between U.S. and Israeli priorities—especially regarding Iran’s ballistic missiles and nuclear program.
  • Joe: “Israel may be singing a bit of a different tune than President Trump as to what they'd like to see from Iran... its nuclear and ballistic missile program.” (00:59)
• Sensitive Talks: Discussions are private—no press access—indicating the sensitivity. Israel aims to widen the U.S.–Iran negotiations beyond nuclear concerns to include missiles and Iranian-backed militias.
• Diplomacy vs. Force: Despite diplomatic talk, there's real concern about eventual U.S. military action. President Trump suggests possibly sending a second carrier group to the region.
  • Tyler Kendall: “President Trump just yesterday floated the idea that he could send a second armada to the region to bolster what is already a very large presence.” (03:15)

2. Trump’s Economic Messaging: Jobs Report and Interest Rates

[03:51–10:37]

• Trump’s Messaging: The President touts unexpectedly strong jobs data on social media, while calling for the “world’s lowest interest rate.” This comes as expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut are receding.
• White House Spin:
  • Officials try to downplay weaknesses, blaming immigration and previous administration policies. Factory jobs rise for the first time since late 2024.
  • Tyler Kendall: “This White House... is really playing defense when it comes to the economy as we head into the midterm elections.” (04:45)
• Pierre Yared’s Analysis: Job gains exceed predictions, especially privately. Yared notes lower immigration (legal and illegal) has shifted labor force dynamics, which should theoretically mean “lower break-evens.”
  • Pierre Yared: “If you look at demographic changes as well as the big reduction in immigration... those two factors should lead you to lower break evens.” (05:58)

3. Deep Dive: Is the Labor Market Really Healthy?

[07:10–11:52]

• Critical View from Katie Richards:
  • Warns that focusing on headline job numbers ignores deeper structural weaknesses:
    • Job growth outside health care is flat or negative.
    • Data revisions reveal a far weaker labor market than initially reported.
    • Katie Richards: “Last year, outside of health care, there was actually a net reduction in jobs across the [economy].” (08:34)
  • Questions whether job gains are resulting in real wage growth or improved livelihoods, especially with cuts to health care and AI-driven GDP growth not translating to employment.
• Fed in a Bind: Federal Reserve must balance persistent inflation with pressure from Trump for looser monetary policy, while maintaining its independence.
  • Richards: “The President's advocacy is a little bit of a double-edged sword...he’s at the same time saying that this was incredibly strong labor market conditions...and also we should cut interest rates.” (10:37)

4. The Impact and Uncertainty of AI on Jobs

[11:52–13:51]

• AI’s Disruptive Potential:
  • Referencing Elon Musk, the panel discusses the challenge of forecasting just how disruptive AI will be on jobs; it’s unprecedented, but history suggests outcomes depend on societal choices and policy.
  • Katie Richards: “It’s really up to us as a society to decide whether technologies like AI are used to provide more to Americans... or whether things just kind of get worse and worse.” (12:53)
• Memorable Exchange:
  • Kailey Leinz: “You’re going to have two AI, Kaylee and Joe sitting here. Interviewing Kitty Richards.” (12:42)
  • Richards: “Optimism for whom?” (13:56)

5. Tax Refunds, Inequality, and Political Rhetoric

[13:51–15:13]

• Republicans expect tax refunds to buoy the economy, but Katie Richards argues most benefits went to corporations and the wealthy, while typical families face higher health care costs due to expiring ACA subsidies and Medicaid cuts.
  • Richards: “Americans might be expecting a significantly larger refund than they are going to get...the vast majority of the Republicans' tax bill flowed to the wealthy and corporations.” (14:32)

6. Congressional Turmoil: Tariffs, Trump, and Party Loyalty

[17:00–22:51]

• Tariffs Vote Drama:
  • Dems force a floor vote on tariffs against Canada, splitting vulnerable GOP representatives. Speaker Mike Johnson loses control, failing to block the procedure; three GOP defections signal possible wider discontent.
  • Rick Davis: “This is a huge loss for Trump. It’s his first big loss legislatively where he thought he could actually win.” (19:13)
  • Ongoing tension between Congressional Article 1 powers (trade and tariff authority) and Trump’s executive moves.
  • Jeannie Shannon Zaino: “Mike Johnson is playing to an audience of one...You go to the floor, try to vote, try for votes you're never going to get, and then say to Donald Trump, oh, listen, I tried. Can't blame me.” (21:14)
• Political Ads & Midterm Strategy: Democrats will push repeated votes to force GOP members to go on record, sharpening midterm campaign contrasts.

7. DOJ, Indictments, and Escalating Political Theater

[22:51–27:51]

• Failed DOJ Indictments:
  • Grand jury refuses to indict six Democratic lawmakers who made a video urging military to ignore unlawful orders. Trump's sharp rhetoric (calling for death penalty) and DOJ’s pursuit only elevate Democratic figures like Mark Kelly.
  • Rick Davis: “That's a bad news day for Donald Trump. He doesn't really mean it...But at the end of the day, he unleashes the Justice Department on him. And then what happens? They elevate Mark Kelly. Now people are talking about him running for President of the United States in 2028.” (24:28)
  • Jeannie Zaino stresses that average citizens on grand juries are now a key backstop restraining executive overreach.
  • Zaino: “Grand jurors...are checking the president and the DOJ who are wildly overstepping any sort of executive mandate.” (26:19)

8. DHS Shutdown Looms & Legislative Outlook

[28:37–34:19]

• Shutdown Fears:
  • Democratic leadership and White House struggle to strike a DHS funding deal, with ICE, TSA, FEMA, and other agencies at risk. Negotiations snag on immigration policy and enforcement (“mask” rule, judicial warrants).
  • Maura Gillespie: “TSA doesn’t get funded if DHS goes without funding again. And the lapse is just at DHS, as you already pointed out, everything else is funded...” (31:30)
  • States may independently enforce federal policies if Congress remains deadlocked, potentially igniting a states’ rights vs. federal authority conflict.
  • Kailey Leinz: “This could turn into a states versus federal law enforcement issue when it comes to masking. If Congress can't figure this out...that in itself is a pretty scary prospect.” (39:06)

9. GOP Fractures & Long-Term Strategic Implications

[34:19–39:28]

• Congressional Authority:
  • Bipartisan sentiment grows in favor of Congress reclaiming tariff and trade authority.
  • Gillespie: “There is an appetite to reclaim control over a power that the Congress has... it's Article 1 of the Constitution and many members have privately expressed frustration over it being handed over to the President.” (35:08)
  • Ongoing divisions signal weakening Trump grip, with midterms looming and legislative losses mounting.
  • Gillespie: “There are more and more cracks in the Trump stronghold as people recognize the economy is not where it was supposed to be...and making people feel less safe.” (38:27)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• President Trump's conflicting stance: Praise for jobs data and simultaneous calls for rate cuts (“double-edged sword” per Katie Richards) (10:37)
• On AI and jobs: Katie Richards: “It’s up to us... to decide whether technologies like AI are used to provide more to Americans... or whether things just get worse and worse.” (12:53)
• On failed DOJ indictments: Rick Davis: “That's the best thing that ever happened to Mark Kelly's political career.” (24:28)
• On Congressional dysfunction: Jeannie Zaino: “It's now average people... hauled into a grand jury... who are checking the president and the DOJ.” (26:19)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• US-Israel-Iran discussions: 00:25–03:51
• Jobs report & Trump’s economic message: 03:51–10:37
• Labor market analysis with Katie Richards: 07:10–11:52
• AI and the future of jobs: 11:52–13:51
• Tax refunds and inequality: 13:51–15:13
• Tariffs debate and GOP fractures: 17:00–22:51
• Justice Department & political prosecutions: 22:51–27:51
• DHS shutdown politics and outlook: 28:37–34:19
• Congressional authority over tariffs: 34:19–39:28

Tone:
The episode intelligently blends urgency and skepticism, a hallmark of the Bloomberg approach—always connecting headline events to policy nuance and political calculation, with honest, sometimes wry exchanges between journalists and policy thinkers.

For Listeners
This episode provides an incisive look at how economic data and national security intersect with raw electoral politics, offering a glimpse into White House messaging, Congressional pushback, and the looming crises that could define the run-up to the 2026 midterms. Whether you care about the power dynamics around Iran, interest rates, jobs, AI’s role in the labor market, or the fate of U.S. government agencies, this episode delivers essential context and sharp commentary.