Trump Casts Doubt on New Iran Talks; Michigan Primary Test For Democrats

Summary

Balance of Power – Bloomberg Episode: Trump Casts Doubt on New Iran Talks; Michigan Primary Test For Democrats
Date: July 31, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode of Balance of Power dives into a week of dramatic developments in Washington and on the world stage. Top stories include shifting U.S. policy on missile defense support to Ukraine, President Trump’s wavering on new Iran negotiations and military strikes, crucial Cabinet decisions at Camp David, and heated Senate confirmation battles. The second half of the show pivots to major primary fights in Michigan and South Carolina, offering insight into the Democratic Party's direction and the GOP’s evolving landscape ahead of the midterms.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.-Ukraine: Confusion Over Patriot Missile Deal

• Developers: Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz lead off with follow-up on Ukrainian President Zelensky’s recent White House visit and the urgent request for Patriot missile systems to bolster Ukraine’s air defenses.
• Major Development: Despite prior public indications that the U.S. would allow Ukraine to produce Patriot systems under license, President Trump threw doubt on the arrangement during a Cabinet meeting at Camp David.
• Quote (Trump):

  "We have to be very careful about letting somebody build them... Now, we have not agreed to that. We’re talking about it. But it’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology, give that technology, they can someday turn on you."
  – Donald Trump (01:50)

• Takeaway: The administration appears to have reversed or paused on technology transfer, creating uncertainty for Ukrainian defense planning and prompting Kyiv to look to other allies for immediate assistance.
• Correspondent Summary:
  Tyler Kendall explains the difference between licensing production and transferring weapons directly, noting new reports of Ukraine seeking Patriots from allies like Poland (03:00-04:16).

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2. U.S.-Iran: Diplomatic Stalemate and Escalation Threat

• Tensions Rise: President Trump, from Camp David, implies both ongoing back-channel diplomacy and imminent additional military strikes after recent Iranian attacks on U.S. forces and renewed Iranian aggression around the Strait of Hormuz.
• High-Level Negotiators: Surprise mention of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and VP J.D. Vance as key players (04:43).
• Quote (Tyler Kendall):

  "There has been very little public indication that the sides are getting any closer toward a diplomatic breakthrough considering Iran isn’t letting up its leverage when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz."
  – Tyler Kendall (05:27)

• General Wesley Clark’s Analysis:
  General Clark is skeptical that military pressure will force Iran to capitulate, explaining that for the Iranian leadership, the struggle is existential. He compares it to Ukraine’s endurance against Russia.
  • Quote:

    "Most of the people who really understand it say that’s not likely to happen because you’re dealing with real zealots… They see it as existential. I’m not talking about the Iranian people now. I’m talking about the IRGC… They think they’re winning right now and they think they’re going to continue to hold the Strait of Hormuz..."
    – Wesley Clark (06:31–08:20)

• Camp David Significance: The rare site for the Cabinet meeting signals sensitive deliberations over possible escalation and the strategic crossroads the administration faces (08:56–11:32).

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3. Cabinet & Personnel Battles in Washington

• Attorney General Confirmation Stalemate:
  • Acting AG Todd Blanche’s confirmation is stalled over disputes about the “anti-weaponization fund” and audit immunity for Trump’s businesses.
  • President Trump threatens to pull Blanche’s nomination if the Senate doesn’t agree to his demands (17:13–19:16).
  • Sen. Tillis Pushback:

    "Those who assaulted police officers on January 6 are not great American patriots who are victims of government abuse."
    – Sen. Thom Tillis (18:34)

• Panelists’ Take:
  • Leslie Shedd: Blanche is qualified; Trump should use his party influence to secure confirmation.
  • Jeannie Shan Zaino: Argues White House is holding AG appointment hostage over demands for unprecedented legal immunity and protection, calling it “the stuff of kings and monarchs...not of democratic executive leadership.” (21:12)
• Speculation: If standoff continues, wildcards like Bill Pulte could be installed in acting roles to pressure the Senate (24:10-24:49).

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4. National Security and Senate Recess Pressure

• DNI Transition Drama:
  Senate-confirmed DNI Jay Clayton awaits swearing-in while Bill Pulte lingers in the acting post, puzzling Democrats (26:05–27:56).
• FISA Section 702 Reauthorization:
  Gridlock expected – no action likely before August break (25:39–26:05).

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5. Election Spotlight: Michigan & South Carolina Primaries

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary

• Key Matchup: Progressive Abdul El-Sayed vs. establishment-backed Rep. Haley Stevens.
• Polling Upset: Emerson College’s Spencer Kimball explains El-Sayed’s dramatic surge to a 15-point lead after Mallory McMorrow’s exit from the race (29:53–31:52).
  • Quote:

    "Sayed has been able to build a coalition of younger voters, particularly under 50, and been able to make inroads with educated voters. And that coalition looks to be a pretty successful recipe here..."
    – Spencer Kimball (30:47)

• Democratic Anxiety: Stevens’ camp insists she’s more competitive for the general; questions about “viability” dominate insider talk (32:26).
• Likelihood of Party Unity: Kimball predicts Democrats will unite post-primary, motivated by being out of power (34:44).

South Carolina GOP Senate Special Election

• Unexpected Race:
  Despite strong name ID, Darlene Graham (sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham) trails in a crowded field; Ralph Norman holding slim lead (35:16–35:47).
  • Quote:

    "It looks like Lindsey Graham’s sister, who is now the senator, is struggling to get name recognition and viability come the general election."
    – Spencer Kimball (35:47)

• Trump Endorsement Watch: Will Trump step in to support Graham’s sister?
• Economic Voters: SC GOP primary voters blame Trump for high gas prices, Biden for grocery prices—a warning for both parties heading into the midterms (36:55).

Generic Ballot & “Blue Wave” Predictions

• National Trends: Double-digit Democratic lead on generic ballot—raising hopes for a “blue tsunami,” depending on candidate quality (38:08).
  • Quote:

    "That tells me it’s kind of baked in that 10, 11 point spread. And that’s a very large spread when we think about historically..."
    – Spencer Kimball (38:08)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump on Ukraine Patriot Deal: "We have not agreed to that. We’re talking about it. But it’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology, give that technology, they can someday turn on you." (01:50)
• General Clark on Iran: "You could take out oil refineries, most of their water is not from desalination...if the idea is that you would punish them enough that they would say, oh my gosh, I just can’t take one more punch in the nose—most of the people who really understand it say that’s not likely to happen because you’re dealing with real zealots." (06:31)
• Jeannie Shan Zaino on Trump’s legal immunity demands: "The idea that he’s willing to throw Todd Blanche over the bus is astonishing...this is the stuff of kings and monarchs. It is not the stuff in a democracy of an executive leader." (21:12)
• Spencer Kimball on Michigan Democrats: "Sayed has been able to build a coalition of younger voters, particularly under 50, and been able to make inroads with educated voters…pretty successful recipe here..." (30:47)

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Important Timestamps

• Ukraine Patriot Missiles & Trump’s Uncertainty: 00:55–04:16
• Iran Diplomacy & Escalation Dynamics: 04:16–11:32
• Analysis by General Wesley Clark: 06:31–15:42
• Attorney General Senate Confirmation Drama: 17:13–24:49
• DNI Swearing-In & FISA Delay: 25:39–27:56
• Michigan Primary Deep Dive: 29:53–34:24
• South Carolina GOP Special & National Ballot Wave: 35:16–38:52

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Tone & Language

Staying true to Bloomberg’s style: informative, brisk, unsparing in its political analysis, privileging clarity and expertise over hype. Zingers come courtesy of the panelists and officials themselves, with both partisan skepticism and institutional gravity reflected.

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Summary for the Uninitiated

Washington’s week is fraught with high-stakes indecision and strategic drift: U.S. missile support for Ukraine is suddenly up in the air; Trump threatens more Iran strikes but holds out hope for talks even as General Clark warns against magical thinking; Senate confirmation fights harden over uniquely Trumpian demands for immunity; and August recess looms over an unfinished FISA bill. Meanwhile, in Michigan and South Carolina, polls upend assumptions about party leadership, previewing fierce fall contests and hinting at a Democratic groundswell.

If you want to know where U.S. foreign policy, party politics, and election momentum stand in late July 2026—this episode maps the battle lines.

Transcript

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[Joe Matthew]

Of course, it has been a very busy week here in D.C. including week the funeral of the late Senator Lindsey Graham that happened on Tuesday. Along with it, the leaders of many countries around the world. Multiple heads of state were in town for that, and two of them met with President Trump at the White House while they were in town, including the Ukrainian President, Vladimir Zelinsky, who, while it didn't happen publicly before the camera, said afterward that one of the things he discussed with the president is Ukraine's need for Patriot missile systems interceptors to help them defend against Russian attacks. Of course, while they need Patriots urgently, there was also an ongoing conversation about them being able to build these systems themselves for licenses to go to Ukraine to produce these in country. We thought that agreement had been made. Trump talked about it at the NATO summit in Turkey just weeks ago, and yet today he suggested at a Cabinet meeting at Camp David that that is not, in fact, a done deal.

[President Donald Trump]

We have to be very careful about letting somebody build them. You know, it's very important. Now we are building many plants now to those. And the Tomahawk missile is the most incredible thing. It can go into a doorway, you can put it through a window of a house. Nobody's ever seen anything like it. You have to be very judicious, but you have to be very careful. Now, we have not agreed to that. We're talking about it. But it's a hard thing to give away that kind of technology, give that technology, they can someday turn on you.

[Kailey Leinz]

Important development here. We want to get right to Tyler Kendall ahead of our conversation with General Wesley Clark. Our Washington correspondent is at the White House right now on the North Lawn. Tyler, did something change here or did we misunderstand this arrangement to begin with?

[Tyler Kendall]

That's an interesting point, Joe, at this point. I think that's one of the questions that we have to pose to the administration because as you're both outlining, President Trump did pledge on July 8 that the US would be granting these general licenses to allow Ukraine to build these Patriot missile launchers on their own. In fact, that was considered to be perhaps the most tangible development that we had gotten out of the G20 summit earlier this month in Turkey. But this comes after Zelensky was here in Washington meeting with President Trump on Tuesday. In fact, we had reporting that he also met directly with officials from Lockheed Martin about what potential future production would look like with Ukraine coming out and saying it would take probably up to 10 to 12 months to get that up and running. Now, there is a difference here, as Kelly outlined, between the licenses to build them on their own and actually getting those weapons immediately. As we continue to see these gaps in Ukraine's air defense systems, though, Joe and Kelly, perhaps Ukraine knew that this was coming because we have new reporting overnight from Bloomberg News that Ukraine is looking to turn to other allies and reach into their stockpiles of Patriot missiles ahead of the winter months when we are expecting there to be an increase in attacks as we start to move out of the summer. And then they would look to replenish those allies back with anything that they are able to procure. We did hear from Poland's officials saying earlier this week after we saw that Russell Russian projectile land in Polish territory saying that they would be willing to give Ukraine some Patriot missiles.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it sounds, Tyler, like they're getting all the long work done at the White House. While President Trump is not, in fact in the residence or in the Oval, he's obviously been dispatched to Camp David and they're getting the Leaf brothers fired up in his absence. When we think more about what we've heard from him at Camp David, though, what we heard in that Cabinet meeting, it wasn't just on the subject of Ukraine, but Iran as well, suggesting once again that he's losing patience, losing faith in the negotiators. What does that mean for the diplomatic process?

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Kelly, at this point we, at this point we heard again that there seems to be these dual tracks. On one hand, he didn't rule out the potential for diplomacy. He gave us a little bit more insight, saying that negotiations were happening at that more senior leadership level. He said that special envoy Steve Witkoff was involved, as well as his son in law, Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and also nodded to the Vice President J.D. vance. Yet at the same time he said that we should expect further strikes on Iran to continue, calling them acting in bad faith, saying that they haven't upheld their part of the deal after we really saw the latest lull in the fighting re escalate earlier this week when Iran issued that surprise attack against U.S. forces. At this point, there has been very little public indication that the sides are getting any closer toward a diplomatic breakthrough considering Iran isn't letting up its leverage when it comes to the Strait of Hormuz, the biggest point of contention at this moment, as we've seen Iran knew overnight turning around at least six vessels that were transiting through the US Coordinated route and not that Iranian route that the IRGC is overseeing, just further heightening the tensions in the region.

[Joe Matthew]

All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall on the North Lawn of the White House in North Lawn that probably is going to have fewer leaves scattered on it. Tyler, thank you very much. And as we continue the conversation on both Iran and Ukraine, we turn now to General Wesley Clark who is joining us once again on Bloomberg TV and radio. He's of course a retired four star general in the U.S. army and served as commander of U.S. southern Command. General, it's great to have you back on balance of power. I'll quote the president from earlier today to you directly. He says we'll be hitting them very hard, referring to Iran. And at some point they'll say we just can't take it anymore. What makes them reach that point?

[General Wesley Clark]

You know, most of the experts on the region and I've been with the region off and on and in various roles for 25 years. Most of the people don't believe you're going to get a capitulation from the Iranians. They've taken the punch. The IRGC has survived it. They lost their top leadership. They've still got their missile cities intact. Pickaxe Mountain, which as president's talked about is intact. And so you could take out oil refineries, most of their water is not from desalination. You can tear down some bridges, but if the idea is that you would punish them enough that they would say, oh my gosh, I just can't take one more punch in the nose. Most of the people who really understand it say that's not likely to happen because you're dealing with real zealots. And put it, let me put it this way, look at what the Ukrainians have taken over the last four and a half years from the Russians. And you would have said, my goodness, how could they stand it? Well, because for the Iranians, like for the Ukrainians, this is an existential battle. The President announced early on that we were looking at regime change. He's very, a couple of times suggested he was going to blow them back to the stone Age. So they take those comments seriously. They see it as existential. I'm not talking about the Iranian people now. I'm talking about the irgc. They're hanging on for dear life. And so if you knock out a few more bridges and take out a couple of oil refineries and so forth and reduce their money flow, okay. But they think they're winning right now and they think they're going to continue to hold the Strait of Hormuz, strike our friends and allies in the Gulf, drive us back out of military positions there and back into the arms of Israel, and then by that time have sufficient missile strength to simply launch a thousand missiles at Israel. Israel expends all its anti missile ordinance and. And that's the end of it. And the longer this goes on, the greater the support they're getting from China and Russia. So they, I don't think you can punch them in the nose and get them to surrender, but we've got to find a better way, I think.

[Kailey Leinz]

General, what do you make of the trip to Camp David today? We carried the President's cabinet meeting, a rare Camp David cabinet meeting and a rare visit there in general for this President who tends to not go to the top of the mountain very often. But we know that Camp David is typically or has been reserved for delicate conversations, for sensitive negotiations, for deliberations away from the public eye, knowing there was a TV camera there, which was a bit unusual to see today. I wonder if this cabinet meeting took place because the President was there to speak quietly with his top lieutenants. He's got Marco Rubio, Pete Hegseth and others up there with him about next steps and potentially escalating this war.

[General Wesley Clark]

Well, I think the administration, I think the President recognizes he's at a crucial decision point here. He is. He's tried five weeks of airstrikes. He's tried to pause and ask for negotiations. Negotiations were undertaken. There was an MOU and it wasn't very well written and it was violated immediately by the Iranians who didn't open the Strait of Hormuz. And then there's been tit for tat and now surprise attacks and response. And I think the administration recognizes that this is a fork in the road. If the more you want negotiations with the Iranians, the stronger hand they believe they have, and the worse the outcome of the negotiations will be. So do you continue to be the demand doer of the negotiations? Do you apply force? But if you apply force, what targets do you go after? And so there's some speculation that maybe we do one more round of really heavy airstrikes a couple of weeks, take out all the remaining targets that we have in a 14,000 target target base, refineries, bridges, everything that we think is significant. Probably hit a couple of empty warehouses along the way. And then at that point you're going to have to go in on the ground. At least that's the thinking. And that's one of the strands of thought that's hanging out there. So you're at a real inflection point here. And the question is, which way do we go? And if we move forward without isolating Iran from reinforcement supplies, technology targeting, and all the other assistance from Iran, China and some of it coming through Pakistan, we're in for a long, tough fight.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's incredible to consider as we consider the fight directly between the US And Iran. There's also the questions of the conflicts that have been going on in parallel with it in many ways, including of course, with Hezbollah, between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. And then there was the question of Gaza as well. The President announced yesterday, General, that the Board of Peace has reached an agreement for the complete disarmament of Hamas that the President says, to use his words, will be a monumental, monumental step toward lasting peace and security. How much faith would you put in it?

[General Wesley Clark]

Well, this is, I think it's a triumph of hope over reality. I'd be very surprised if Hamas would agree to that. And certainly if they're getting any help from, from Iran or through Hezbollah, I'd be doubtful if they'd agree with. It's been a tremendous, tremendous burden on Israel, not only from the military side, but also from the public relations side and international support side as Israel has struggled to deal with the terrorist organization. So it'll be in the interest of all the outside actors who are opposed to Israel to tell Hamas, don't disarm, drag this thing on, take another month, two months, three months. So the problem with disarmaments is always how do you actually do it? And then verify it, and then that's until you see the fine details, you don't know whether it's going to be real or not.

[Kailey Leinz]

I want to ask you about the President's comments today about Ukraine. General, we didn't think we'd be talking about this, but he's casting doubt, in fact openly doubting this deal to provide general licenses for Ukraine to build its own Patriot missiles. He said we have to be very careful about giving out the secrets to those weapons. There's a risk of giving it away and them turning on you. Did you understand that this was a deal in place and without those Patriots, what next for Ukraine?

[General Wesley Clark]

President Zelensky has asked for just a few Patriots. He said he wants 30 before he gets into the winter or maybe a little bit more than that. And really we have been withholding these because we have a shortfall. So it's natural that we would allow someone else to manufacture. Okay, if you don't trust Ukraine, give it to Poland, give it to Britain, give it to somebody under the Defense Production act the president could have that authority. So and the idea that the Patriots would be turned against us, I'm not sure about that. Actually it looks like the more effective missile than the Patriot is a French Italian anti aircraft missile. It's been around for a few years, continuously updated and while some of the Iranian missiles can slip through the Patriots, we think this French Italian missile won't let the steerable Iranian missiles or Russian missiles through. So it might be more effective. And Ukraine is going to develop its own anti aircraft missiles or anti missile missiles very quickly if we don't allow them to do it. They've already got their own tlam, they've all long range cruise missile. They're testing their ballistic missiles that would be able to hit Moscow. So let's get real here. We're moving into a situation where we're going to have at least two interlocking and perhaps three interlocking global crises all with military force in which they're engaged with Iran bridging between the Middle east and Ukraine. Russia supporting Iran as well as attacking Ukraine. China feeding both Russia and Iran to fight the United States. So this is not a skirmish. This is a real, real serious inflection point in U.S. abroad.

[Kailey Leinz]

General Wesley Clark, it's great to have you back. Retired four star U.S. army. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz. This is Bloomberg.

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[Joe Matthew]

Time is short. There's only one week left until the Senate leaves for it's elongated August recess. That of course happens every year and there's a lot that they're trying to get done before they actually break for recess. This time around. It's not clear whether or not that will include confirming Todd Blanche to be the next Attorney General of the United States. He of course was Deputy ag. He is now acting AG and it's unclear whether or not he's going to remain in that acting capacity for some time. The President has threatened as of yesterday to pull his formal nomination and allow him to serve as acting for the time being, or very least until Senators Cornyn and Tillis are out of office. Because they are the ones that are standing in the way here over specifically the so called anti Weaponization fund and the audit immunity deal that was secured for the President and his businesses as part of it. The President seems to double down on that on Truth Social today and again in the Cabinet meeting at Camp David on Truth Social he suggests that the fund needed to go to quote Great American Patriots. He says perhaps there has never been a group of people treated so badly in our nation's history. And that doesn't sit well necessarily with one of the Senators in question, Senator Thom Tillis, reposting that on X to say the President made it clear today that the so called anti Weaponization fund is still alive, which is exactly why we are attempting to formally end it. He says those who assaulted police officers on January 6 are not great American patriots who are victims of government abuse.

[Kailey Leinz]

Joe so I guess it's going to be an acting Attorney General for the foreseeable future. They met just yesterday with Todd, a pretty good meeting. So I don't quite understand where this is going.

[Joe Matthew]

What's incredible is that Thom Tillis consistently says that they've been working with Blanche and that Blanche is not the problem. In his ex post he says Blanche has been forthright, thoughtful and patient. It's A shame. His confirmation, I'm quoting Senator Tillis directly, has hit a snag. Only because an incompetent personal adviser to the President refuses to amend the bogus settlement.

[Kailey Leinz]

That's always the tack. It's the people around the President. When you talk to Thom Tillis, let's see what our panel thinks. Jeannie is back with us today. Jeannie Shan Zaino, our Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash center alongside Leslie Shedd, a Republican strategist, President Rising Communications fellow at the Atlantic Council. Leslie, should Todd Blanche get comfortable with this acting title? We heard the President articulate the same spirit of that post in the Cabinet meeting today. This is a deal breaker, right?

[Leslie Shedd]

I mean, I think it's really unfortunate because Todd Blanche is incredibly qualified. He's incredibly experienced. You know, he's been doing the job. He's proven that he will be a fantastic Attorney General. So I would really like to see him get fully confirmed. I know that he would, too. And you have to keep in mind that there are some limitations that are placed on acting rather than fully confirmed attorneys general. So, you know, the, the quicker that we can get him confirmed, I think the better.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, so who is it that needs to blink here then, Leslie? Is it Mr. Blanche? Is it the White House? Is it these senators?

[Leslie Shedd]

I think that's a, that's the great question here. Right. Look, President Trump is by far the most popular, most powerful person in the Republican Party. So he has this capability to contact senators and to, you know, lobby them hard to find out what it is that he needs to do in order to get his Attorney General across the finish line. You know, I think that he's going to be frustrated about having to do this, but at the end of the day, getting Todd Blanch fully confirmed will be a huge victory for the Trump administration. And so I think he should try to work with the Senate to, to get that done.

[Kailey Leinz]

What's going on here, Jeannie? Is the DOJ aware of the President's feelings on this? Because they were said to be making progress?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, I think they are. And I think we should take a step back and look at what is going on here. Is that the President is unwilling to allow Todd Blanche to put something in writing that he can find confirmed during his confirmation hearings that this weaponization fund, or anti weaponization fund, as it's called, is in fact, dead. And as Tom Tillis said today, the language of the president on Truth Social this morning in the Cabinet meeting today, as he waxed poetical, and with great concern over the January six people who raided the Congress, who raided the legislature on Capitol Hill on January six were convicted, many of them put in jail and then pardoned by the President. He's very concerned that they were maltreated. And yet what is this really about? This is because the President of the United States wants a deal that no other American can ever get, which is immunity from past and future IRS investigation for him and his family. Of course, he already enjoys immunity as president. He wants that for his family. Family. As we sit here recognizing the 250th anniversary of the United States, I think we should all remember that this is the stuff of kings and monarchs. It is not the stuff in a democracy of an executive leader. And that's why this corruption is at an extraordinary level. And the idea that he's willing to throw Todd Blanche over the bus is astonishing. And of course, his plan to do it in January hinges on a lot of things, including who takes the Senate and who's on the Judiciary Committee come the next Congress. He doesn't know what that's going to look like. And Todd Blanche may end up as acting until the rest of his term.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, and I guess the question becomes whether or not, if it's not to be Todd Blanche, Leslie, any other future nominee is going to have this same problem, because what they're trying to extract is not necessarily just a promise from Blanche, it is from the Department of Justice. So anyone tapped to run the DOJ to be the top of the doj, I would imagine is going to face the very same thing, if not from Cornyn and Tillis, potentially from Democrats who have the majority, or for. From other more moderate Republican senators.

[Leslie Shedd]

And I mean, that's exactly. You're making the exact right point. And Jeannie made the right point, too. Right. Which is we don't know what the Senate will look like next year. I think Republicans will absolutely retain control of the Senate, but we don't know who will be on Judiciary Committee. We don't know how much we will have control of the Senate. And on top of that, this isn't about Blanche. They've made it clear. It is about this weaponization fund and the IRS issue, and they're going to hold on to that through the end of this Congress. So to me, I think the President is a notoriously good deal maker. He makes deals. I think he should reach out directly, use his considerable sway within the party, figure out what he can do to get them to a yes, and then do it.

[Kailey Leinz]

Interesting to watch this Cabinet meeting, Jeannie, because we saw Jay Clayton in the room, the president's new dni, although I guess he's not actually, because he's not been sworn in. Right. Bill Pulte was also at the other end of the table. He's got Pulte on the same side of the table as the president of the United States. And it was floated, as we, I think, discussed yesterday, that, well, maybe that's one way to unstick this whole thing. President Trump does it again. He puts Bill Pulte in as acting attorney general. See how bad you want Todd Blanch on a day like that, you see a maneuver like that coming?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

My goodness, I hope not. And so I guess Bill Pulte will be the person you put in as being so unqualified and objectionable that anybody is better. You know, I can't imagine he goes in as acting attorney general, but I've seen everything if he does. But we know that he is reportedly, according to at least Politico, wants to stay in the post of acting DNI as long as possible. And it looks as if today that he is, you know, you got to feel a little bit bad for both Jake Clayton sitting there and Todd Blanche. Jay Clayton, who got confirmed and is just waiting to be allowed to take the post and wondering where his predecessor is acting, is going to land because he's certainly not going to go very far away.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, Jay Clayton being confirmed was supposed to be, even if, I guess there wasn't necessarily the stipulation that he also had to be sworn in and Bill Pulte had to be out. But I guess that's probably what Democrats were hoping to see. See, wasn't this supposed to unlock, at long last the reauthorization of FISA section 702? Jeannie, are we going to see that before the recess? It doesn't seem so. It doesn't seem like there's really any urgency around it on either side.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Frankly, I agree totally with that. Katie Kelly, I think that it's there's not a lot of urgency to get Pfizer done at this point, and I don't see the Senate moving in that direction. I think that was the talking point before Clayton's nomination was confirmed. But since we haven't heard a lot about it because, of course, the Senate has so much else on its desk before they go on this recess, much of which involves fighting with the White House, whether it's the Save America act, whether it's the Todd Blanche nomination, you know, so much and of course, John Thune at the center of it all. So I think Pfizer, if we get it, I think it's going to probably be after the midterm. I hope it gets done. We need it particularly at a time when we are at war. But I don't think there's much energy in that direction, at least in the next few hours as we're looking at it now.

[Kailey Leinz]

Leslie, what do you think about this Bill Pulte situation? Typically, you're confirmed by the Senate, they swear in. A couple of hours later, you'll find photo op, you're out having dinner with your new colleagues. Spectacularly bizarre is how Senator Ron Wyden describes the fact that Bill Pulte's hanging on there for longer. Senator Mark Warner called it amazing in a horrible way. It's baffling. What's the President doing here?

[Leslie Shedd]

I mean, I don't think it's really that uncommon to have somebody that's been working in a role to stick around for a week or two and try to help the new income incoming person. That's usually a really good way to transition. Instead of having one person out the door immediately, having him there swear in

[Kailey Leinz]

the new guy, couldn't you?

[Leslie Shedd]

Pardon?

[Kailey Leinz]

You could still swear in the new guy, couldn't you though? And they'll. Yeah, I'm together to make the transition.

[Leslie Shedd]

It would make sense to go ahead and do that. It could just be perhaps the President is traveling, he wants to be the one to swear him in. He wants to be there. You know, there could be a myriad of reasons as to why they haven't sworn him in yet. I don't think it's nefarious. I think the President is very excited about having Jay Clayton come in. You know, I'm certain that Bill Pulte would love to stay because look, I can tell you from personal experience, working in foreign policy and national security is really fun. It's really interesting. But I think that we're all ready to get Jay Clayton in there and having a little bit of a transition

[Kailey Leinz]

will only help stay with us on balance of power will have much more coming up after this.

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[Podcast Host]

you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

Tuesday especially is its primary day across a number of states. But the one we will all be watching is Michigan, where the Democratic Senate primary is hotly contested and could give us a signal as to what direction the party is going. It's of course, Abdul Said, who's a progressive, who the Democratic socialists are campaigning for, even if he says he's not formally part of it, versus the establishment. Back to Congresswoman Haley Stevens. And the latest poll out from Emerson College has Haley Stevens down 15 points to El Sayed at this point. And Emerson's director of polling, Spencer Kimball is joining us once again on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Spencer, welcome back to Balance of Power. This number raised a lot of eyebrows. A 15 point gap in a race that a lot of people have said is pretty tight could be a nail biter. So is he just going to run away with this and surprise people?

[Spencer Kimball]

Well, we're going to see on Tuesday night, Kaylee, if it is going to be a nail biter. But the data suggests that Said has been able to build a coalition of younger voters, particularly under 50, and been able to make inroads with educated voters. And that coalition looks to be a pretty successful recipe here in the Democratic primary.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, I'll tell you, watching these numbers evolve is incredible. The way you present numbers from January, April and July, al said goes 16% up to 24% now at 54%. And it's been a little bit less optimistic for Haley Stevens. She was in the teens back in January at 39% now. And I'm sure that you've heard people call this poll an outlier. I was talking to a Democratic campaign operative here in Washington, D.C. last evening who, who was apoplectic about this poll. You've probably been hearing from some of them what has happened in the last month or two to justify this huge increase in support.

[Spencer Kimball]

Well, there was another candidate in the race, Mallory McMorrow, and she was polling pretty well in our numbers in April and she drops out of the race. And the idea there was that her vote would go to one of the two candidates, Stevens or Elsie Ann. We know it looks like that vote has essentially split itself, not really coalescing around one of the two candidates. And because of that, Elsa has been able to maintain that edge he's had over Stevens in all of our polling, really since April. In January, we had Stevens a little bit higher, but she's been struggling in our numbers.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, and of course, she is backed by the establishment and has establishment Democrats like the one Joe was speaking with Apple, apoplectic. Because the concern is, is that she's the one who would be able to meet to beat Mike Rogers in the general and that he would potentially be the victor in the other scenario. And I wonder, Spencer, if that's what your polling bears out.

[Spencer Kimball]

Well, it's interesting you bring that up because we saw that come across the newswire this week, that general election polling that had the two Democrats against Mike Rogers. What was interesting in there is that they didn't measure the primary, which is this week, and that kind of raised an eyebrow from the Stevens camp that why wouldn't you put out that primary number unless it's not a good number and the better number to look at would be the general election. We see this all the time with viability. We talked about President Trump. Is he a viable candidate back in 16 for general elections. It's what the campaigns will use to try to find the message, to move the needle in their direction. I'm not sure it's going to be enough here for Steven elections.

[Kailey Leinz]

Do you have head to head numbers for a general election?

[Spencer Kimball]

We haven't pulled a head to head since January, which we had it as a tight race as well with El Sayed. But that's been seven, eight months.

[Kailey Leinz]

If your name is Mike Rogers, you're just hanging out, listening to this interview, enjoying every minute of it, right?

[Spencer Kimball]

Well, I'm not so sure Mike Rogers has got this thing in the bag. I know the Democrats are fighting right now and it's divisive, but, you know, it's kind of like on the other side in down in Texas, the Republicans, you know, with Telorico, everybody tries to line up their opponents thinking, oh, maybe Paxton would be easier than Cornyn here in Michigan, maybe El Said would be easier than Haley. But at the end of the day, I think after the primaries, the candidates, they'll work together. The divisiveness usually, you know, fades away and we'll see a coalition build. So I don't put too much stake into that at this Time.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, as we consider the dynamics for November, regardless of who wins, how high will the conversion rate be among Democrats if their preferred candidate in the primary loses to then go out and vote for the person who is victorious in the general, or is there a likelihood of lower participation in that scenario?

[Spencer Kimball]

Yeah, that enthusiasm gap is something that we're going to keep an eye on, but it looks like the Democrats are really going to rally around whoever the nominees are because they're the party out of power. And generally that's what we see. But don't forget, in 22, we had some races for the Republicans in Pennsylvania, Arizona that ended up not going in their direction because of candidate quality. So we'll see obviously who gets these nominations. But then let's reset the race in September and we'll give you some fresh numbers at that point.

[Kailey Leinz]

We'd love to move to South Carolina. And the numbers that you have on the special Republican primary for U.S. senate, this is, of course, the seat that was held by the late Senator Lindsey Graham. Got to be honest here, Spencer. I'm surprised Darlene Graham is not first. Ralph Norman is at 22%, followed by Graham at 19%, Russell Fry at 12, Mark Sanford at 11. Darlene Graham does not have a name recognition issue. Right. What does this say about her chances in Ralph Norman's candidacy?

[Spencer Kimball]

I guess some would call it another outlier. But we're just looking at our reality here. And we've done this poll now twice. We did it two weeks ago as a hypothetical. And now that the candidates are in there, remember, this race is in a week. South Carolina has a truncated process here where if nobody gets to 50% on August 11th, there's going to be a runoff on August 25th. So this is all happening really fast. And it looks like Lindsey Graham's sister, who is now the senator, is struggling to get name recognition and viability come the general election. And we saw South Carolina not necessarily line up with the Trump endorsement in the gubernatorial race. We're gonna see what happens here in this Senate special election. And in South Carolina, you were talking about the economy. We're, we just looked at those Republican voters and they're blaming President Trump for the high gas prices. And that's something that the Republicans are going to be concerned about coming to these midterms. They're still blaming President Biden for grocery store prices, but those gas prices that are hitting all the wallets, that might become a bigger issue. So we learned that as well out of South Carolina.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, you mentioned the gubernatorial race, which Ralph Norman of course ran in, although he, he didn't come with come close to winning it. But how much of his numbers could be carryover from the name recognition that he was already on the ballot?

[Spencer Kimball]

Well, Mark lynch was carrying. Now you can see he's the fifth guy on the list. He's the one who ran against Graham last time and got 28%. He's now down to 7%. So you can see name recognition goes in both directions. But yeah, I do think Norman does benefit from that early stages at this point. But again, it's only a week until, you know, two weeks until the election. It's going to take a lot of effort to increase namewreck. And what's interesting is Graham, you know, Graham's sister already has Trump's endorsement. So is Trump going to come to South Carolina? It's going to be really interesting to watch the dynamics of that race play out.

[Kailey Leinz]

You might have seen the memo from Doug Sosnik Spencer. Pretty interesting. He's predicting a blue wave election, citing the party's over performance in elections over the past year or two, the president's all time low approval numbers, economic dissatisfaction, the war in Iran. Is he on the right track?

[Spencer Kimball]

Yeah, our national generic ballot test has had the Democrats up by double digits for a few months. That tells me it's kind of baked in that 10, 11 point spread. And that's a very large spread when we think about historically where we see these generic ballot test numbers. And that's why the Democrats are a little bullish in Ohio, in Texas and Alaska because now those numbers get to double digits. States that look to be out of play come into play and there you could have that blue tsunami that people are looking for. I think the House is one story. We'll obviously have to wait. As I mentioned, the candidate quality in the Senate is going to play a factor in those races, more so than in those House races.

[Kailey Leinz]

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at noontime [e-mail]

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