Trump Dials Back Iran Threats, Hosts Netanyahu at White House

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)

Episode: Trump Dials Back Iran Threats, Hosts Netanyahu at White House
Date: July 28, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu & Kailey Leinz
Guests: Skyler Woodhouse, Melinda Herring, Tyler Kendall, Ben Jensen, Jeannie Shanzino, Sarah Chamberlain

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Episode Overview

This episode centers on a momentous day in Washington, marked by the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham and significant White House meetings between President Trump and key foreign leaders: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The conversations explore US foreign policy shifts, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, the politics of military aid and sanctions, and reflections on Graham's influential legacy.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. White House Diplomacy Amid Graham’s Funeral

(00:52 - 05:32)

• The day coincides with Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral, attended by world leaders including Zelensky and Netanyahu.

• Both leaders met President Trump at the White House early in the day before memorial events.

• Bloomberg's Skyler Woodhouse notes that the meetings were brief and closed to the press, with very little detail released:

  • Quote: "I think there’s a lot of questions still swirling on what the relationship is like and how it will be going forward." (Skyler Woodhouse, 03:41)

• The context includes evolving relationships:

  • Zelensky’s rapport with President Trump seems to have improved recently.
  • Netanyahu, on his eighth White House visit, is navigating a previously public spat with Trump, possibly seeking renewed alignment, especially on Iran.

2. Ukraine’s Needs & the Legacy of Lindsey Graham

(05:32 - 13:56)

• Discussion shifts to Ukraine, with analysis from Melinda Herring (Atlantic Council).
• Graham was a significant proponent of Ukraine’s struggle, visiting Kyiv ten times and advocating for global freedom.
• Congress is preparing a sanctions bill against Russia—named in Graham’s honor—likely to pass, signaling revived US commitment to Ukraine.
  • Quote: "His death has released a lot of energy. There's a strong desire to do something to honor his hard work." (Melinda Herring, 06:19)
• Herring points out that, despite bipartisan support, there’s skepticism about the potency and potential use of these sanctions by the Trump administration.
• The US has provided intelligence and licensing for Ukraine to produce its own Patriot missiles but has delivered little new military aid since Trump’s return to office.
• The urgent requirement for Ukrainian air defenses is emphasized—117 ballistic missiles reportedly struck Ukraine in July alone.
  • Quote: "Patriots are the only things that can down these ballistic missiles... Missiles for the Patriots are needed literally every day." (Melinda Herring, 10:46)
• Internal challenges in Ukraine: Recent firing of defense minister Mihailo Fedorov, a technocrat and public favorite, causes protests and raises questions about Zelensky’s leadership dynamics and military strategy.

3. Details from the White House Lawn & Progress on Iran

(16:52 - 19:43)

• Bloomberg’s Tyler Kendall outlines the themes of the day from the White House:
  • Zelensky is seeking more air defenses; Trump remains hesitant to deplete US stockpiles but allows Ukrainian production.
  • The current focus for US-Israel-Iran negotiations is reopening the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping, with broader nuclear curbs a secondary priority.
  • Israel’s readout suggests strong US-Israel alignment on Iran.
• Reporting indicates that, while the White House pushes negotiations, progress may really be happening via Iran and Oman.

4. Remembering Lindsey Graham

(20:14 - 25:13)

• The bipartisan nature of Graham’s legacy is recognized.
  • Quote: "I choose to remember Lindsey Graham as a person who could fight with you on one issue, but fight for you on another issue." (J.D. Vance, 20:14)
• Analysts Jeannie Shanzino and Sarah Chamberlain note the rarity of senators who can bridge divides and exert such influence over foreign policy.
• Graham was an essential conduit between Congress, President Trump, and international leaders; his absence leaves a notable gap, especially regarding support for Ukraine and Israel.

5. The Russia Sanctions Bill and Separation of Powers Debate

(25:40 - 27:31)

• The sanctions bill has broad bipartisan support (62 co-sponsors), but Democrats are wary of ceding tariff and trade power to the executive branch, given the bill’s potential precedent in using tariffs as a geopolitical weapon.
  • Quote: "It's also interesting, the first time in American history that... Congress is authorizing the use of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon to punish secondary countries ... and that's potentially in the long term, very dangerous." (Sarah Chamberlain, 26:14)

6. The Iran and Ukraine Munitions Dilemma

(30:05 - 42:07)

• In-depth segment with Ben Jensen (Center for Strategic & International Studies):
  • The pause in US-Iran hostilities is attributed to strategic considerations—not just dwindling US munitions, but opportunity cost in broader deterrence (e.g., toward China and Russia).
    • Quote: "It's not... we absolutely have our capabilities to do this... It's a question of the way you want to fight relative to the military objective." (Ben Jensen, 32:58)
  • US missile and interceptor supply chains are fragile (dependent on limited domestic facilities), preventing a quick scale-up.
  • Ukraine needs more interceptors and has a license to manufacture them, but production is slow and fraught with logistical and security hurdles.
    • Quote: "The PAC3 interceptor IKEA kit is not a build it yourself in one day, one month, one year. And it's going to require infrastructure that's targetable by the Russians." (Ben Jensen, 35:48)
  • Iran’s war capabilities remain resilient, with underground factories and use of cheap drones.
  • The threat of Pickaxe Mountain (rumored underground Iranian nuclear facilities) is discussed, with skepticism about the US's ability to easily neutralize it:
    • Quote: "I don't think a MOAB would do it, given how deep it is... It's probably going to have to be one of the most sophisticated Special Forces missions in history." (Ben Jensen, 41:32)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "His death has released a lot of energy. There's a strong desire to do something to honor his hard work."
  — Melinda Herring on Lindsey Graham (06:19)

• "Patriots are the only things that can down these ballistic missiles... Missiles for the Patriots are needed literally every day."
  — Melinda Herring on Ukraine’s air defense (10:46)

• "I choose to remember Lindsey Graham as a person who could fight with you on one issue, but fight for you on another issue."
  — J.D. Vance on Graham’s bipartisan legacy (20:14)

• "It's not... we absolutely have our capabilities to do this... It's a question of the way you want to fight relative to the military objective."
  — Ben Jensen on US-Iran military calculus (32:58)

• "The PAC3 interceptor IKEA kit is not a build it yourself in one day, one month, one year."
  — Ben Jensen on missile production challenges (35:48)

• "It's also interesting, the first time in American history that... Congress is authorizing the use of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon..."
  — Sarah Chamberlain, on the sanctions bill's precedent (26:14)

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High-Value Timestamps

• 00:52–05:32: The day’s context, White House meetings, and Lindsey Graham’s memorial.
• 06:19: Melinda Herring discusses Graham's legacy and the upcoming Russia sanctions bill.
• 10:46: Urgency of Ukraine’s need for Patriot missiles.
• 16:52–19:43: White House lawn analysis by Tyler Kendall, Iran and Israel updates.
• 20:14: J.D. Vance's eulogy clip on Graham’s impact.
• 25:40: Panel discusses the Russia sanctions bill’s political and constitutional implications.
• 30:05–42:07: Ben Jensen’s military-technical analysis on Iran, Ukraine, and US munitions supply.
• 41:32: Jensen suggests Special Forces would be needed to address Pickaxe Mountain.

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Episode Tone & Language

• The tone throughout is analytical, urgent, and reflective—with respectful tributes to Senator Graham blending with sobering assessments of international conflicts.
• The language is professional, policy-driven, and occasionally technical; hosts and guests are forthright about uncertainties and political tensions.

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Conclusion

This episode provides a window into a high-stakes day for US foreign policy leadership—with the White House navigating diplomatic tightropes, Ukraine fighting for survival (and weapons), Israel emphasizing deterrence on Iran, and the American political class reckoning with the loss and legacy of a pivotal Senate figure.

Listeners gain timely, candid insight into how personalities, military logistics, legislative politics, and deeply interconnected global conflicts are shaping Washington’s response—and how much is still uncertain.

Transcript

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[Joe]

Here in Washington, it is also a day in which a lot is going on, all of it taking place on the day of the Senator Lindsey Graham's funeral. There were, of course, some ceremonies at the Capitol building earlier today and there will be a full memorial service for him taking place at the National Cathedral this afternoon. And in attendance at that service will be heads of state, not just leaders of Congress in which Lindsey Graham spent so many years. The Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelinsky, of course, is here in Washington, as we've told you, as is the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, both of whom met with President Trump at the White House earlier today. Those meetings have now concluded in the messaging, at least from the White House press Secretary Caroline Levitt. Well, brief in nature, Joe, was that they went well?

[Kelly]

Yeah. Really something to watch the images if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. The ceremony at the Capitol resolving to a memorial service that will start about an hour from now at National Cathedral. That's why they had to get those meetings in early at the White House. And we're lucky to have Skylar Woodhouse with us, Bloomberg White House correspondent with her eyes on both conflicts and both meetings today. Skyler, thanks for coming to see us here in our Washington bureau. The Zelensky meeting will seize on first. That actually went pretty quickly here. And he's got a couple of big asks that sound familiar, including more defensive systems but more support from Washington, period. As we work our way up to a sanctions vote later today, the stars appear to be aligning for Zelensky here.

[Skyler Woodhouse]

Yeah, President Zelensky, he said that the meeting with President Trump was, quote, unquote, a good meeting. So only time will tell to see, you know, how well those discussions went today. I think for reporters who were over at the White House today, they definitely Were, you know, eager to get in the room to ask questions. And the meeting did not open up today, nor did the meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, you know, so I still think we're waiting for some of those true details, especially from President Donald Trump, and waiting to see if we'll get any sort of readout to learn more about those fine terms and what we can see going forward and how this relates to that sanctions bill.

[Sarah Chamberlain]

Yep.

[Joe]

And we'll be watching the true social feed, certainly. Skyler. It's interesting as we consider these two meetings and the position the leaders find themselves in in relation to President Trump. There was a time in the not so recent past or distant past where Zelensky seemed to be really on the outs with not just the president, but others in the administration, including Vice President J.D. vance. It does seem that that relationship has gotten warmer at the same time that for Prime Minister Netanyahu on what his eighth visit to this White House has been kind of publicly feuding with the president. Do we have any sense as to whether Netanyahu was able to ingratiate himself a bit more back into the fold?

[Skyler Woodhouse]

Yeah, well, I think one thing that's interesting is while President Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu were meeting, we did get some photos of the two leaders, of the leaders or the officials on both sides, you know, trying to sort of depict maybe a cozy environment. The two leaders were smiling. But, you know, I think it'll be interesting to obviously see what that actually means and how, you know, the two leaders are going to take the next step with the Iran war. Obviously, leading up to this meeting, you know, there were a lot of reports and so forth around the president using some heavy language as it really, as it related to President Benjamin Netanyahu and phone calls and conversations. So I think there's a lot of questions still swirling on what the relationship is like and how and how it will be going forward.

[Kelly]

Interesting analysis from Bloomberg's Dan Williams earlier, who saw those photos that were put out from the Israelis. Pete Hegseth was in there, I believe, along with other officials suggesting this is a meeting of import. Whether this is a detente of some sort or a breakup remains to be seen. The president's going to speak at the service today. Are we going to hear from him at National Cathedral?

[Skyler Woodhouse]

Yeah, I believe he will be speaking later today. You know, it'll be interesting to see what sort of direction. Yeah, he goes.

[Kelly]

Also, his mindset as he, as he says farewell to a friend who was pushing both of these causes Right.

[Joe]

Absolutely.

[Skyler Woodhouse]

And especially former Senator Lindsey Graham. I mean, he was coming back from where was he? He was, yeah. He was in Ukraine. So it'll be interesting to see how what kind of tone the president strikes today and if he will reveal maybe any details from the meeting with Zelenskyy today. But certainly it'll be one thing to watch for sure as the president sort of says goodbye to a close ally of his.

[Joe]

Indeed we will. All right, Bloomberg, Skyler Woodhouse helping us cover the White House. Thank you so much. And as Skyler mentioned, it was Ukraine that Lindsey Graham had just returned from just prior to his death. And it's on Ukraine. We want to focus now as we turn to Melinda Herring who is a non resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and is back with us on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Melinda, welcome back. And we have a lot we want to discuss with you in terms of the actual conflict in Ukraine. But I would wonder your take first on the legacy of the late Senator Lindsey Graham and what he meant for Ukraine, for Ukrainian leadership, given his relationship with Vladimir Zelinsky and how he possibly via the sanctions bill that he helped author and negotiate around and push forward could alter the course of this war.

[Melinda Herring]

Thanks for having me back on. So I think Senator Graham would be delighted today. He went to Ukraine 10 times since the war started. His last trip was to Ukraine. His heart was in Kiev. He had a close relationship with Volodymyr Zelinsky. And I think it's important to say that Lindsey Graham wasn't just focused on Ukraine. He cared about free people around the world. So he had a heartbeat for the struggle for global freedom. But Ukraine was very, very special to him. And we see his death has released a lot of energy. There's a strong desire to do something to honor his hard work. There's been a desire to pass another bill that would sanction Russia and it's named after the late senator. And it looks like that's going to pass on Capitol Hill today.

[Kelly]

So what's that going to mean? Melinda, welcome back. I just wonder the impact of that sanctions bill passing because it does appear to be on a glide slope here. Whether or not it receives a unanimous consent agreement is another matter. But the president's going to have some new tools here. There are questions about the extent to which he will use them. What do you believe?

[Melinda Herring]

Right, Joe? So there is a question about whether he will use them, how good they are. They're not a 10. I'm not going to come on here and look you in the eye and say that the bill is fabulous, but it's a lot better than nothing. So remember, this is an administration that has done nothing on Ukraine since it came back to office. So this is fantastic. But I think more significantly, it will unlock the EU and push the EU to release its next package of sanctions. That's why it's significant.

[Jeannie Shanzino]

I see.

[Joe]

Well, so then when we consider the significance of the decision making that this will force Vladimir Putin into. Melinda, if at all, if not, even if it is just a symbol that the US Is willing to stand by Ukraine in a more firm matter than it perhaps to your point, has so far during this administration, where would you be looking for signs that it is starting to affect the behavior of the Kremlin and the way in which Putin is conducting himself as this war continues?

[Melinda Herring]

Great question. So it's not a great day in Moscow. There's a lot of things that are bothering Vladimir Putin right now. The first thing that's bothering him are Ukraine's long range strikes. Ukraine is getting better at hitting oil refineries. That is causing the prices to go up. It's causing fear in people. There's elite, there's elite fights within Moscow between the, the, the inner circle around Putin. So things are not rosy in Moscow. And he has upcoming elections. He also doesn't have enough people. We're seeing pictures of all the heads of state in Washington and the Finnish president is here and he's been very, very clear that Russia has a math problem. So Russia does not have enough soldiers to continue this war and Putin cannot engage in a big mobilization or he has a political problem. Right now, the ratio is every five soldiers that are killed on the Russian side, one Ukrainian soldier is killed. So things are not rosy in Moscow. And I don't think people realize that. Putin is actually in a bit of a pinch right now.

[Kelly]

Pretty big score for Zelensky. On his way over to the United States, he stopped by the UK and posted from the Portsmouth Naval base in the United Kingdom that the UK has decided to share what they call its stone cloak technology. That's a system that jams Russian air defense systems. To your point, allowing Ukraine to go deeper into Russian territory. And it begs the question, Melinda, the extent to which Ukraine is relying on the United States as opposed to its European partners.

[Melinda Herring]

So, Joe, great question. Since Trump has come back into office, the United States has not given any more military aid. It has delivered some military aid that the Biden administration arranged, but it hasn't given anything new. So we've been sitting on our hands since Trump came back into office. However, the US Is still providing intel support and that's a really big deal. The Ukrainians rely on that intel support for these long range strikes so that that has to continue in order for Ukraine to prosecute the war.

[Joe]

So the intel support, the licensing of Patriot missiles, which we know were discussed today. Melinda, what else does Ukraine then need from the United States?

[Melinda Herring]

So we really need to see the United States go and put another assistance bill into place. The United States hasn't given a large amount of money to Ukraine since 2024. It was April 2024. Ukraine needs more funds in order to keep the war in place. But its most immediate need is air defense. So just in the month of July, the New York Times calculated how many ballistic missiles have been sent into Ukraine. It's 117 and they don't have enough Patriots. Patriots are the only things that can down these ballistic missiles. And just to remind your viewers, ballistic missiles are hitting schools, churches and ordinary citizens. And we're seeing the number of civilians at an all time high this month as that increased pressure with these ballistic rockets in Ukraine.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Wow.

[Kelly]

Missiles for the Patriots are needed literally every day. The quote from Zelensky in a post on X, Melinda, to your point, he was talking with the Finnish President, Alexander Stube, also here for the services today, where they discussed the prospect of diplomacy. Zelensky suggesting that important meetings for next month are being prepared. What's he talking about?

[Melinda Herring]

So what he's talking about is there's going to be a renewed effort to bring a peace agreement to the war in Ukraine finally. And I think we're going to see Wyckoff and Kushner come to Kyiv. So they have been invited multiple times. They refuse to go. Wyckoff in particular doesn't want to go because, Joe, there are no airports that work in Ukraine. You have to fly into Warsaw or fly into Moldova and then take a car or a train. And it's very uncomfortable. And Wykoff's not a young man. So General Kellogg used to make this TR all the time. But our chief negotiators on Ukraine haven't been to the country. That's a big problem. So I think out of this meeting is a very good meeting in the Oval Office. We see Zelensky and Trump, warm smiles, shaking hands and it feels like we're back in a good place. But I think we're going to see more emphasis on negotiations. And I think the president is going to send his chief negotiators there. And I think the Laura Loomer visit definitely helped with that. But that wasn't the only thing that has set us in this place.

[Sarah Chamberlain]

Yeah.

[Joe]

Laura Loomer now on the side of Ukraine is one of the more remarkable, just one of the political evolutions that we've witnessed as of late. Melinda, I also want to ask you, you mentioned how it's not a great day in Moscow that Putin is facing difficulties domestically. I wonder if we should be considering what domestic pressures President Zelensky is also facing. He fired his popular defense minister. There's been turnover in Ukraine military leadership. What is the impact of that?

[Melinda Herring]

Great question. Yes. So last week, there was big news in Kiev. The very popular defense minister. His name is Mihailo Fedorov, and he's 35 years old. He's been in office since 2019. He's been promoted, promoted, promoted. He's a rock star. He's responsible for Ukraine's transformation. So if you take your phone, you can register your baby online, you can get married and divorced online in Ukraine. It's even better and faster than Estonia. And it's because of this defense Minister.

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[Melinda Herring]

So he's. He's fabulous. And no one understands why he was fired. So Zelensky didn't really answer the question. And there have been protests across the country. He's. He's a nerd. I know him. He's not someone who toots his own horn. He doesn't speak English. He's from the sticks of Zaporizhzhia. He's from occupied Ukraine. But his numbers, his trust numbers were growing. And Zelinsky doesn't like to be overshadowed. We see this movie over and over again. You know, it happened with his commander in chief, with Zaluzhny, and he sent Zaluzhny to London, but he got rid of Fedorov because there was a real conflict between the Minister of defense, Fedorov, and the commander in chief, Syrsky. Syrsky was old school. He was in his 60s. They called him a dinosaur. They called him the Butcher of Kyiv. He wanted to mobilize as many people and fight in sort of old Soviet tactics. And Fedorov wanted to use technology and he wanted to revolutionize the armed forces. And the two of these guys couldn't communicate. And Zelensky said that he had to be in the room in order to get them to communicate. So Zelensky's defense is, I don't have time for this. I had to fix this problem. Syrski, the commander in chief, has been fired. Federoff is no longer part of the government and they're still negotiating, but there's still protests, so watch this space.

[Kelly]

She's an encyclopedia on this stuff and has been to Kiev countless times, unlike the negotiating team. Melinda, it's great to have you back. We'll see what comes from today's meeting and from the services that will follow. And we'll have an update on the sanctions. The Russia sanctions vote likely tomorrow, as that's going to happen much later in the day into the evening following Zelenskyy's address to senators. Stay with us on Balance of Power we'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Kelly]

Thanks for making Balance of Power part of your Tuesday here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. We've got our eyes on the White House today, where the President is preparing to leave the mansion and make his way up to National Cathedral for the funeral services, the memorial services being held today for the late Senator Lindsey Graham. He will not be the only world leader there. In fact, it's been a very busy day at the White House meetings with Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, as we've told you, and Ben Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel. As we wait to hear headlines from those meetings, we want to bring in. Tyler Kendall, Bloomberg's Washington correspondent, is on the North Lawn right now as the President prepares to load into those vehicles that you see behind her. If we're on, if you're on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube, to the extent that we understand, Tyler, I know reporters were not inside these meetings. Give us a sense of what was being discussed and how this all plays into the theme of the day. Knowing Lindsey Graham supported these efforts to support Ukraine as well as to continue the war effort against Iran.

[Tyler Kendall]

Right, Joe, there are so many threads that we could tie together at this point as we wait for the motorcade behind me to depart. And President Trump's expected remarks later this afternoon at the funeral of Senator Lindsey Graham. Lindsey Graham's legacy, of course, such a large part of it is the fact that he had the president, President's ear and was a close adviser when it comes to foreign policy and was considered to be a foreign policy hawk. And you had these two leaders here today meeting at the White House that are here in Washington because they were considered to be such close allies with the senator. On the Ukrainian front, we heard from Zelensky. We haven't quite gotten that official readout from the White House yet, but we know that the Ukrainian president asked the US for more air defense systems, including Patriot missile batteries, something that the president told US Reporters yesterday on Air Force One he would like to keep for the US at the moment amid dwindling stockpiles, though the US did grant that general license so that Ukraine can produce their own. The White House told us that today's meetings was part of an effort to kick start the negotiation process again when it comes to Russia and Ukraine, considering that that conflict has, and those talks have been stalled, called at this point for months. And then on the Iranian side, on the Israeli side, excuse me, we did get some headlines out of Netanyahu spokesperson saying that the US And Israel are fully aligned when it comes to Iran and we wait to see what happens next in the conflict. Of course, Joe and Kelly, as you both know, we are currently in this pause in the fighting as the US Says that they are resuming negotiations. But our own reporting indicates it is really Iran and Oman that are talking about a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz before we can even get to any sort of talks about what potential curbs on Iran's nuclear program would look like. All priority right now is on getting commercial shipping back up and running.

[Joe]

All right, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall live at the White House for us where again President Trump is getting set to depart en route to the National Cathedral for the memorial service of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. Tyler, thank you so much. And when it pertains to the memorial service for Lindsey Graham. It, of course, is not the first ceremony we are seeing on his behalf today. There was also one held at the US Capitol earlier this morning, attended by many of Graham's former colleagues, including his former colleague, now Vice President of the United States, J.D. vance, who remembered him this way.

[J.D. Vance]

He saw that the Senate at its very worst could be a venue for character assassination. But because he loved people, he saw that the Senate at its very best could be a deliberative body geared towards persuading people. So I choose to remember Lindsey Graham as a man who could disagree with you without being disagreeable. I choose to remember Lindsey Graham as a person who could fight with you on one issue, but fight for you on another issue.

[Joe]

And as we remember the legacy of Senator Graham, we turn now to our political panel. Jeannie Shanzino is with us, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic analyst and Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy Schools Ash center, joined today by Sarah Chamberlain, a Republican strategist and CEO of the Republican Main Street Partnership. Sarah, to come to you first is as so much of Washington and the world frankly, remembers Lindsey Graham today in the United States Senate, in the United States Congress. How many more of Lindsey Graham's ilk are there?

[Jeannie Shanzino]

Unfortunately, not many left. I mean, whatever you thought of him, he was really a statesman. He reached across the aisle, worked with the Democrats. It's, unfortunately, there's few and far between, especially after this next round of retirements.

[Kelly]

Reminds me somewhat of the funeral of the late Senator Ted Kennedy, where you see a lawmaker drawing world leaders as if it was a presidential funeral almost. But the line that we just heard from J.D. vance really says a lot. A person who could fight with you on one issue but fight for you on another. Is that why he was friends with so many Democrats?

[Jeannie Shanzino]

Absolutely. And he was there in a lot of their issues. And he was the whisperer to President Trump.

[Kelly]

Yes.

[Jeannie Shanzino]

I mean, if the Democrats wanted to deliver a message to President Trump and didn't want to go to the media, they went to Lindsey Graham. And Lindsey Graham called up the phone and told the president he will be very much missed. Whatever you thought about him, he was a very much a senator, a statesman, and both sides will miss him. It's such a tragedy.

[Joe]

Well, and as we consider the liaison he was for Democrats, the liaison was he was for Senate leadership with the White House. He also was one for other world leaders. Hence the presence today, Jeannie, of the Ukrainian president, of the Israeli prime minister at his memorial services and in meetings at the White House. How should we consider the way in which the US Is foreign policy and the reaching out to leaders of other democracies that Lindsey Graham did on behalf of the United States and what will be missing in his absence?

[Sarah Chamberlain]

Yeah, I mean, he's. We have experienced the loss of probably the most pro Israeli and pro Ukrainian voice, certainly in the Senate and Congress as a whole. I'm not sure we know who can take up that mantle, if anyone, particularly his hawkish views, his protection and his interest in expanding democracy around the world at a time when democracy is very much under fire. You know, we hear voices, you know, perhaps Laura Loomer can take up this with Ukraine. I'm not sure that carries the same weight at this point. And that's who Lindsey Graham was. And it's a very unusual position for a senator to be in. And he was in it because he carefully put himself in that position. If we go back to 2016, 2016, he and Donald Trump were great adversaries. And he worked very, very carefully to gin up a relationship with Donald Trump that seems to have been real because he knew if he had any hope of moving Donald Trump, particularly on foreign policy, and they were complete adversaries in that realm, that he had to be friends with him and be on the golf course with him and be in the room with him. And he did that successfully, maybe to the detriment of Donald Trump at home, but he did that successfully. We saw that exactly five months ago when the president started this war, which Lindsey Graham was a major proponent of.

[Kelly]

We're seeing some shots from inside the National Cathedral now, some live video if you're with us on Bloomberg TV or on YouTube. Benjamin Netanyahu was just speaking with the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, before they took their respective seats here. And seeing Mike Pence spend some time with Volodymyr Zelensky. There is Justice Kavanaugh as well and can vote. As we look at some of the Jamison Greer as well, members of the administration who are in the room here, Sarah, it's not often you put everyone in a room like this on a solemn occasion. The emotions that are going to be felt when the president's speaking is something that everyone here can share. To what extent is this funeral going to help propel the issues that Lindsey Graham supported?

[Jeannie Shanzino]

Well, I certainly believe it's going to. I said to say help Ukraine. I mean, we know that they're meeting this afternoon, early this evening, and I think that we will see more funding going to Ukraine, more support going to Ukraine Because I do think when the president got iffy on Ukraine, it was Lindsey Graham who's like, listen, we have to continue to support Ukraine. Ukraine is very important. We cannot let Russia take over Ukraine because then the dominoes could fall with, with other nations.

[Joe]

Well, so as we consider the Russia sanctions bill that the Senate is expected to have votes on tonight, Jeannie, in the name of putting pressure on Russia and supporting Ukraine, we know that there's 62 co sponsors. That means it's going to get through the Senate. But Zelensky is likely going to try to generate more support from Democrats who yes, most likely by and large want to support the Ukrainian cause, but are concerned that the cost of that is giving the president more tariff power, giving that back to him. How ultimately do you think Democrats will come down as a whole on that?

[Sarah Chamberlain]

You know, to your Point, Kelly, the 22 co sponsors are Democrats, 62 are co sponsoring. That is, you know, a win even if Zelinsky doesn't go up there and advocate for it. I certainly think all the outpouring of, of love for Lindsey Graham today and remembering him is going to help. But Democrats have a right to be concerned because this gives the president an enormous tool that he hasn't had it. It's an enormous expansion of power. What Democrats have tried to do is support Ukraine without giving the president that power. And of course it cedes power from Congress, who controls trade, who controls foreign commerce to the president. And that's a potential violation of, of separation of powers. So I think we have a ways to go here. It's also interesting, the first time in American history that if this passes, and I think it will, Congress is authorizing the use of tariffs as a geopolitical weapon to punish secondary countries like India, like Russia, like China, rather than as a standard trade remedy. And that's potentially in the long term, very dangerous. And that's why there is is remaining concern despite support for Ukraine.

[Kelly]

Jenny Shann Zaino and Sarah Chamberlain, we appreciate your joining us here with our eyes on National Cathedral. Many more members of the cabinet have arrived as we have eyes now on Scott Besant, RFK Jr. Speaking with Benjamin Netanyahu. The Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has arrived as well as we approach a full quorum for the Cabinet. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming coming up after this.

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[Joe]

We're watching the National Cathedral where memorial services for Senator Lindsey Graham are about to begin. Much of President Trump's cabinet, as well as leaders from the United States Senate are in attendance. The Secretary of State, Marco Rubio just arrived. You also find in the audience heads of state from a number of countries, including Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky and the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who, if you are joining us on YouTube or Bloomberg TV, you can see right now is sharing a few words with the Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defense. Pete Hegseth after meeting earlier today with President Trump at the White House, we did get a readout of that meeting from the Israel prime minister's office saying that the US And Israel are fully aligned on Iran and that Israel supports whatever path President Trump chooses. And we heard from President Trump earlier today as he did an interview on Fox News about the potential path that lay ahead. A diplomatic one, yes, but another that could potentially target Pickaxe Mountain.

[Benjamin Netanyahu]

Bibi's telling me that because he wants me to stay involved. I mean, I don't necessarily we have the finest because the Space Force, we have the greatest cameras in the world focused on. We know exactly what's going on on. But no, I heard Bibi announced that. I said, why don't you just tell it to me? Why do you have to announce it to the world? I know exactly what's going on at Pickaxe. It's not a big problem. We took out their nuclear sites and we'll have to take out Pickaxe if we don't make a Deal? We don't make a deal, we'll take it out very easily.

[Kelly]

Yet another reference to Pickaxe Mountain, which is something he's been talking about a lot lately with reports based on Israeli intelligence that thousands of empty centrifuges were hidden below some 400ft of bedrock beneath Pickaxe Mountain. We'll see if we get that far, because the fact of the matter is we have a continued pause in hostilities. It's been since Friday that the US Was trading fire with Iran, and there are questions about what motivated that decision and about what might come next. Which is why we're always lucky to have Ben Jensen with us. He's in studio in our Washington bureau, Director of the Futures Lab and a senior fellow for the Defense and Security Department at the center for Strategic and International Studies. This is the man counting the missiles as they're fired and procured. And, Ben, it's great to have you back. As always here on Bloomberg, there was reporting something I was talking to Kaylee about earlier. Admiral Brad Cooper was the one who advised the President to cool it, suggesting that this continued strike against the Strait was not effective any longer. Some suggested that that decision was motivated by dwindling supplies of munitions. What do you make of it?

[Ben Jensen]

So, first, we always have to be careful about what happens behind closed doors, right? It's like bad high school gossip. 50% of the time, maybe 51. So if Admiral Cooper did indeed say that, my guess is what he was really trying to indicate to the President is here are your viable range of military options. And so should you continue to prosecute the war this way, here are the risks the ships will incur because of the interceptors. And I think, more importantly, what most people miss is you can't separate the way we fight in Iran from the way we plan to deter China from the way we plan to deter Russia. Because a lot of the component parts for these missiles are common across multiple missiles. And so Admiral Cooper, given his experience, lifetime of service in multiple combatant commands and at sea, isn't just looking at this in his responsibility as CENTCOM commander. He's also making sure he's giving what we call best military advice to the President. So the President weighs the costs of an additional 30, 60 days of a campaign with an unclear political outcome or transition versus the cost and risk it incurs to deter those other possibilities on the horizon.

[Joe]

So is it fair to say that this isn't about inability to continue potentially heavy operations against Iran, it's the opportunity cost of what that pursuit would mean? For other theaters.

[Ben Jensen]

This is why I love Bloomberg. Nowhere else could we talk about terms like opportunity costs. You hit it on the head. Right? So it's not. We absolutely have our capabilities to do this. And people forget in that initial 30 day campaign there was a period of time where we switched from standoff precision munitions to we had so decimated their air defenses we could fly in and drop laser guided bombs and even GPS guided munitions. We have got tons of those. So it's not that we can't fight. It's a question of the way you want to fight relative to the military objective. So where a naval voice would be concerned is if I'm going to escort ships through the strait and basically make the oil markets happy again, that means I'm going to have to have a lot of defensive measures in place to counter Iranian coastal defense, cruise missiles to counter those fast boats to even counter Dragons drones. And most of our munitions are sadly still built to be 1 to 4 million dollars. Interceptors being shot at a 10 to 20,000, even 1 million dollars. So the cost effectiveness of the exchange decreases the efficacy of the operation. And so that's the real opportunity cost they're juggling now what you're hitting on, I think most people miss too is that there are actually really interesting ways should military operations commence. Because a pause for me always equals planning and getting in position that I think we're starting to see. So a lot of people missed how important that Saronic Corsair strike was about a week ago. How important it is that we have task force 82nd. So the army is in the Middle east sinking ships, not just the Navy.

[Kelly]

That Corsair is the autonomous boat that we saw in action.

[Ben Jensen]

We talked about that is cost effective. If I shoot three to five of those at a million dollars a piece of to hit an Iranian sub in the pier, that's worth 100 to 200 million dollars. That's cost effective fighting. That's a different campaign structure. So I actually think people are discounting the creativity of ways we could prosecute this campaign. It's just a question of how quickly can we scale up those unmanned surface vehicles. How many Himars or PRISM missiles are we willing to let the army shoot and even the Marines shoot while we're still building up our industrial base to recapitalize the over. I think it was 96 hours, 5200 exquisite munitions used.

[Kelly]

Fascinating. So we're talking about Iran so far and I'm sure we're not done yet. But when you add the cause in Ukraine. This conversation gets to be a little bit more complicated. If interceptor missiles are the commodity, that's exactly what President Zelensky is asking for. I know they have a license to make them. Do they simply need to make their own or do we have anything to offer?

[Ben Jensen]

I think all the above. I mean, sadly, even if we did get that license, it's going to take a year to possibly 2 to 3 to put that in place. Yeah, like an IKEA kit where you and I go home or if you're hopefully you're better than I am. My IKEA kits usually fail.

[Kelly]

That wouldn't work for me either.

[Ben Jensen]

Yeah, yeah. So the PAC3 interceptor IKEA kit is not a build it yourself in one day, one month, one year. And it's going to require infrastructure that's targetable by the Russians. So there's a real cat and mouse game. So it's going to have to be developing additional low cost interceptors. A lot of this is an intelligence game. So you've heard reporting come out now where Ukrainian commanders will routinely let certain missiles through because they can do intelligence tell they're not going to hit something of value or a population center. So that means it's less interceptors to fire at the target. And the real bottleneck here is common for it doesn't matter if it's a Patriot interceptor thaad a Tomahawk missile comes down to a few key components. So one, ammonia perchlorate. So it's a weird chemical that allows you to have solid rocket motors or small rocket motors. Fire. We have only one plant in the US that makes ammonia perchlorate high explosives. We sadly have only one plant in Tennessee that makes the type of high explosives turbofans. So the things that are working in a lot of the cruise missiles in particular, we got one plant in Michigan. So it doesn't matter how much money you throw at the problem, there is still a massive industrial backlog and supply chain issue that the Trump administration has recognized. But it's going to take us years to work through that.

[Joe]

And yet they've requested a one and a half trillion dollar defense budget for the upcoming fiscal year. What you're telling us, Ben, is effectively you could get the money, but you aren't going to be able to spend it very quickly because the industrial base isn't there to back it up.

[Ben Jensen]

Absolutely, you will get it in pieces. And to be fair, I think, you know, he doesn't do a lot of media, but Secretary Feinberg has really been the person behind the scenes moving this forward and that's why you have now not five but seven year deals. And so you have to spend now to get the missiles coming online to scale production. But you're right, it's not going to happen anytime soon. Which is why you've seen a separate initiative that's really creative of trying to bankroll cheap munition projects. You've had three announced in like the last year. One was the Air Force's was like the family of affordable missiles. Almost sounds like a Honda Odyssey for the family to go shoot someone one, but it's affordable missiles. There's a new one, the ground based affordable missile. So $250,000 or less to shoot a long range munition that's autonomous. And so these contracts are being structured cleverly to enable competition and allow people to then actually see if we can alter the entire incentive structure for the industrial base. So I have a mix of new players and primes to meet the demand signal in the market.

[Kelly]

Wow, really interesting. Ukraine entered the theater. Yeah, in an amazing way over the past 24 to 48 hours, actually striking an Iranian Caspian Sea commercial vessel in the Caspian Sea. Are those parts that you're talking about what Iran was delivering to Russia?

[Ben Jensen]

Maybe. Mostly what Iran can deliver to Russia right now are component parts for Shaheed. So we heard the term Shaheed. We've about talked, talked about it. The Russians are actually getting more effect out of their own version of it called the Garan, and they're making them rocket powered as well. So my guess is the Iranians were sending drone components. I don't know though. But honestly, the more President Trump can do to encourage Zelensky to take those strikes, the more we can do. I mean, why build it when we can buy a Ukrainian one too? They can produce more drones than even they can use in this conflict. So we probably need to start getting more creative more quickly of those weapons pairings matching. I'm talking about why fire a $5 million missile when $100,000 drone will do well?

[Joe]

And speaking of the cheap drones, do we have a sense, Ben, of how many Iran has left, to what extent they're still capable of building them? Because we have continually heard from President Trump that it's not just their drones, their ballistic missiles, their navy, all of it has been destroyed. And yet we're still hitting targets and they still clearly have the capability to at least fire at US Assets, even if most of them are intercepted. So what's the actual status of Iran's capability?

[Ben Jensen]

So it's so hard to know. I think the President was being genuine and definitely Admiral Cooper when they gave the battle damage assessment up front. But that was really striking the conventional Iranian forces and known forces. What Iran has learned from North Korea is to dig, baby, dig. They go underground. So they have entire factories built underground to produce drones, to produce components. And that's what makes a very huge intelligence challenge. So you never fully are confident you got all of the production sites. So even if you can have an intelligence estimate say yes, you destroyed, by definition, destroyed isn't 100%. It can be like 75 to 80. They're still producing more. And because the drones are cheap, they can produce more. We knew even in the initial strikes that we were hitting the launchers that we never were getting, getting all of the ballistic missiles. What surprised me is the speed with which Iran has recovered the ability to shoot ballistic missiles. So there's definitely some disconnect there that I'm not sure what it is. The scariest one is that Iran also has built its launchers to look like commercial vehicles. So we still believe in the law of armed conflict. So we're not going to shoot something that looks like a school bus. But it turns out it's actually a launcher for a anti ship cruise missile. So there's a lot of deception involved in this that makes it really difficult to say with confidence what you did destroy. And sadly, Iran doesn't need that much to conduct sea and area denial. They can fire a salvo of five to 30 ballistic missiles every month and hundreds of drones every month in intermittent intervals. And it keeps us on a defensive footing. That's the difficulty of breaking that type of defense.

[Kelly]

Can I ask before they give us the hook, just quickly, what do we need to drop on Pickaxe Mountain to get that far underground? Is that the mother of all bombs or is this something we have?

[Ben Jensen]

I don't think a MOAB would do it, given how deep it is. I think what you're probably going to have to do is fall back to one of the true, enduring, true. Well, the enduring truth of Special Forces, the infinite design of an operation is relative force superiority. Meaning it's probably going to have to be one of the most sophisticated Special Forces missions in history.

[Kelly]

You put people down, you'd have to

[Ben Jensen]

put an outer cord on and basically absorb Iranian counterattacks while you have specialized engineers and Special Forces teams go down and either detonate and collapse the mountain from within or take the uranium out if it's there.

[Kelly]

Amazing.

[Joe]

So maybe not as easy as the President is suggesting it would be. If there's no deal. Ben Jensen super smart stuff. Thank you so much for joining us from this stenner for Strategic and International International Studies.

[Kelly]

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime [e-mail]

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