Trump Disputes Iran’s Hormuz Control, Touching on Sticking Point

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power

Episode Title: Trump Disputes Iran’s Hormuz Control, Touching on Sticking Point
Date: May 27, 2026
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg Washington Correspondents)
Notable Guests: Cliff Young (Ipsos), Derek Wallbank (Bloomberg), Jen Gavito (The Cohen Group), Jeannie Shan Zaino (Harvard/Kennedy), Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg)

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Episode Overview

This episode focuses on President Trump’s latest Cabinet meeting, the White House's position on the ongoing standoff with Iran, and the domestic and political fallout—particularly around gas prices and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The episode features real-time reactions to Trump's public statements and detailed analysis from political analysts, pollsters, and diplomatic experts about the prospects for negotiation with Iran, challenges for the administration, and implications for the upcoming midterms.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s Cabinet Meeting: Signals and Messaging

• Reflecting Pool Anecdote: President Trump opens with a non-political segment about the remodeling of the DC reflecting pool (00:40-02:00), using it to segue into broader Cabinet discussions.
• Cabinet Meeting Tone: The Cabinet meetings have become drawn-out affairs, filled with positive economic rhetoric, claims about strength, and optimistic commentary about ongoing negotiations.

Polling Realities

• Cliff Young (Ipsos) reveals Trump's approval rating:
  “He’s below 40. This is, this is what we call the tipping point.” (02:36–02:43, Cliff Young)
  • Falling below 40% makes governance and coalition-building much harder for an incumbent, especially with the weight of economic pain from gas prices.

2. Gas Prices and the "Tipping Point"

• Economic Bite on Approval:

  • Gas prices have caused notable erosion of Trump’s support (“That is the tipping point... When you dip into the 30s, it becomes very difficult to push forward your agenda.” — Cliff Young, 02:36).
  • Cliff Young notes historic data: “At 25% or more in terms of gas going up, you don't recover in the first six months.” (03:20–04:11)
  • Messaging from the White House that is too positive is causing dissonance with voters who are feeling real economic pain:

    “Over time creates dissonance with people.” (04:43, Cliff Young)

• Impact on Party and Midterms:

  • Sustained low ratings signal risk for party defections and trouble for general election endorsements, especially in swing districts.

3. Negotiations with Iran: Optics vs Reality

• Bloomberg Host:

  • The White House disputes Iranian claims to the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining no country will have exclusive control (09:47+).
  • Trump leans on the Abraham Accords, suggesting deal with Iran should involve broader Middle East buy-in, especially Saudi Arabia and UAE.

• Trump’s Hard Public Line:

  “We're not talking about the easing of any sanctions, no money, no nothing” (13:19, Trump via reporting)

  • Trump resists any direct comparison with Obama’s Iran deal and refuses to allow sanctions relief or the unfreezing of Iranian funds, despite clear Iranian demands for concessions.

4. Analysis: Difficult Path Forward

• Derek Wallbank (Bloomberg):

  • Trump’s dilemma is avoiding an unfavorable exit—especially one that could be compared with Obama’s perceived “weakness” on Iran—while his own voter base is “feeling the squeeze.”

  “You're talking about an average somewhere around or above, you know, half a billion dollars that Americans are paying at the pump, extra per day.” (11:53–12:17, Derek Wallbank)

  • Trump’s own coalition, especially hawkish voices, warn against making too many concessions.
  • There’s a fundamental gap between US and Iranian expectations around what concessions (especially sanctions relief) are possible in any deal.

• Jen Gavito (The Cohen Group):

  • Maximalism complicates diplomacy:

    “It's not enough to destroy the nuclear material... it has to be shipped out. That's very difficult to do. And on... economic relief, that is indeed Iran's number one requirement.” (16:24–16:50, Jen Gavito)

  • Very little has changed over the last several weeks, with Trump “grappling with competing instincts”—tough messaging vs. negotiating a way out.
  • “Perfect being the enemy of the good”—the administration risks missing a workable deal by holding out for a maximal one (17:47–18:39).
  • Best to hope for: some opening of the Strait of Hormuz and delay to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, though any military damage to Iran so far will be short-lived.

5. Israel and Regional Spoilers

• Jeannie Shan Zaino (Harvard/Kennedy):
  • Netanyahu feels limited leverage over Trump and is “frustrated by the parameters of the rumored deal.” (20:29)
  • Israel and Iran’s regional proxies (notably Hezbollah) retain the ability to spoil or complicate US-Iran progress.
  • As long as there is no progress toward a two-state solution or a Palestinian state, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states will not sign the Abraham Accords.

    “I don’t think there’s anybody who expects that those countries in the Middle East are going to sign on to the Abraham Accords unless there’s a promise of a Palestinian state.” (24:48, Jeannie Shan Zaino)

6. Domestic Political Calculations

• The clock is ticking for the administration: delays in reaching an agreement will leave the Strait closed for months and continue to suppress Trump’s polls into the midterms.
• “I don’t think we’ve ever seen a war, Joe, in American history that has gotten more popular while it dragged on.” (27:40, Jeannie Shan Zaino)
• Republicans face growing political peril the longer the standoff drags on, with concerns about consumer confidence and persistent inflation.

7. Inside the Cabinet Meeting: Trump’s Key Statements

• Sanctions and Control:

  “No country will have control over the Strait of Hormuz.” (28:10, per Tyler Kendall’s report)

• On Easing Sanctions (Response to Tyler Kendall):

  “When they behave properly and when they do what’s right, we’ll let them have their money.” (28:21, Trump via Tyler Kendall)

• Federal Gas Tax Holiday:
  • Trump leaves open the possibility for “the next one to two weeks”—but gives no firm answer. (29:13, per Tyler Kendall)

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Cliff Young on the dilemma faced by leadership:

  “When you dip into the 30s, it becomes very difficult to push forward your agenda. You can’t keep your coalition together as well.” (02:36, Cliff Young)

• Jen Gavito on achievable outcomes:

  “A strategic victory here is going to prove extremely elusive… Probably the best that can be hoped for at this point is that the Strait of Hormuz is opened without conditions and that global trade recommences…” (18:52, Jen Gavito)

• Jeannie Shan Zaino on regional buy-in:

  “Those countries in the Middle East are not going to sign on to the Abraham Accords without a promise of a Palestinian state. And that is not likely to be forthcoming anytime soon.” (24:48, Jeannie Shan Zaino)

• Tyler Kendall relays Trump’s stance on Iran’s money:

  “When they behave properly and when they do what’s right, we’ll let them have their money.” (28:21, via Tyler Kendall)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• Trump’s reflecting pool anecdote & Cabinet meeting intro – 00:40–02:00
• Cliff Young poling analysis – 02:36–07:48
• Wealth effect and stock market discussion – 07:28–08:39
• White House stance on Strait of Hormuz & Abraham Accords – 09:47–10:30
• Derek Wallbank on Trump’s Iran dilemma – 11:53–13:57
• Jen Gavito on negotiation prospects and limits – 16:24–20:15
• Jeannie Shan Zaino on Israel, Abraham Accords, and regional spoilers – 22:31–26:37
• Tyler Kendall reports from the Cabinet room – 28:21–29:30

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Conclusion:

The episode captures a presidency at a critical juncture—desperate for a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran but boxed in by political, economic, and regional realities. The stalling negotiations, combined with domestic dissatisfaction over gas prices and a faltering polling position, create a storm of pressure. The episode’s parade of experts and reporters helps illustrate just how limited the White House’s options are, as every move is scrutinized not just by domestic political opponents but also by wary allies and adversaries abroad.

Listeners are left with a clear sense that both the foreign policy and domestic political stakes are rising—and that time is running short for a breakthrough.

Transcript

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[Joe Matthew]

You know President Trump talking about the reflecting pool in Washington now at this point we thought we'd let that breathe again just to see if we might get an update on the situation with Iran. The president referring to American flag blue, the color that was selected to paint the NOW reflecting pool that's being refurbished here. Just to clarify, he was talking about the cost of that project. The Washington Post fronted a piece on this today. As a matter of fact, the president on Thursday had said last Thursday I originally thought I'd do it for two or three million dollars. This is a quote in the Oval Office. Just do a base, he said. But now we're fixing up the exterior of it so it will probably be in for less than $20 million. So it's going to be significantly beyond the original cost. Indeed, prompted by a friend from Germany, he said he was visiting him at the White House and called the water filthy, dirty disg looking and therefore we have this project underway that at the moment has different sections of the basin floor showing different shades of blue. So apparently there will need to be some repainting going on here before this is all said and done. You never know what you're going to learn at these Cabinet meetings and they're not done. We might go back in there when producer James tells us to. If he starts taking questions from reporters, including Tyler Kendall, who is in the room, we will bring you back into the Cabinet meeting. Sometimes these can go on for hours. We're joined by Cliff Young. Have we even gotten Cliff on the air yet? I kind of forgot where we were in sports here. There's the man. If you're with us on YouTube, search Bloomberg Business News Live. Of course, the force behind Ipsos. And there are fresh numbers to talk about. Cliff, great to see you. Welcome back. It's great to be the headline on your most recent deck of polling data is not encouraging for this President Trump dips below the tipping point we talk about underwater. Last time you were here below 50%, you said well, go a little bit easier now. He's below 40. This is, this is what we call the tipping point.

[Cliff Young]

That is the tipping point. That's the moment where when you dip into the 30s, it becomes very difficult to push forward your agenda. You can't keep your coalition together as well. If you're running again, an incumbent has less than a 50% chance. Yes, gas prices have really taken the bite out of his numbers and he's in a difficult place, that's for sure.

[Joe Matthew]

And without an update today, it makes you wonder if this could grow worse or if we enter kind of a period of stagnation with a standoff in the strait, no real breakthrough when it comes to negotiations with Iran. Gas prices hang where they are. Does that continue to corrode the numbers or does the president see polling plateau?

[Cliff Young]

No, I think if it continues, there's a chance of losing a point or two more. The historic average at 25% or more in gas, gas spike is about 5 points. He's not quite there yet. But the critical issue is the half life. After you've been hurt, after gas prices have taken a bite out of your numbers, how long does it take to rebound? We did an analysis of data all the way back to 1990 and it suggests that really at 25% or more in terms of gas going up, you don't recover, you don't recover in the first six months. And so they're really, the administration, every day that goes by, every week that passes is more problematic for the administration. For Republicans, when looking at the midterms

[Joe Matthew]

and that six month timeline is exactly.

[Cliff Young]

Yeah, we're there and we're there. This is a problematic place. And indeed I'd even go as far as saying the cabinet meeting really doesn't reflect how Americans are feeling. Americans are feeling that bite, that inability to make ends meet.

[Joe Matthew]

So does this kind of messaging work and the president, this is number 12, I guess the 12th cabinet meeting that we've had. And these can be hours long talking about investments, the golden age, how strong the economy is. Does that actually have an impact after a while or could it actually cut against the president? Because people don't see that being their reality.

[Cliff Young]

Yeah, well, first and foremost, what really matters is what's happening day to day with people. Are they able to make ends meet or not? They aren't. That's what they're feeling. The data is very clear on that. And indeed, usually when you talk about narratives and what, what is said, messages, they can kind of come and go and be forgotten. But this really, over time creates dissonance with people. Let's not not forget the Biden administration. Talk about Biden nomics.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Cliff Young]

And how it was having a positive impact. We talked about that. And. And it ultimately had a negative impact on people's perceptions. If you were to do a focus group today and show this tape in front of people of this Cabinet meeting, there'd be a lot of dissonance, a lot of negative reaction, people saying, listen, they're not talking about my issues today. Issue is that X are too expensive, gas is too expensive, I can't make ends meet.

[Joe Matthew]

So you actually qualify the fallout of slipping below 40%. Historically, you write in your research, this is the range where governing becomes materially harder and presidential credibility begins to weaken. We are seeing that already. Right. With war powers and with some of the pushback on the weaponization fund. Is Congress the canary in the coal mine?

[Cliff Young]

Without a doubt. Congress is canary. Now we're being confused a bit by signals.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Cliff Young]

Because we have the primaries and in the primaries the President is showing himself

[Joe Matthew]

to be very strong against Republicans.

[Cliff Young]

Exactly. Brand Trump is very strong. That said, institutionally speaking, what we begin to see when you dip below 40, it's a signal to the political market that you're weakened, that you're winged, and you'll begin to have defections. I believe we're just beginning to see it. If he stays there below 40, we're going to see it a lot more leading up to the midterms and even after the midterms, obviously.

[Joe Matthew]

So what does that mean for his general election endorsements versus the primary endorsements that he's been trumping recently?

[Cliff Young]

They'll be more problematic. Indeed, during the primaries, they're more important. Partisans go out and vote. It's not the entire base that goes out and vote. They tend to be much more MAGA than not.

[Joe Matthew]

Will he be traveling, going on stage, or is there going to be some distance that's required?

[Cliff Young]

That's a great question. At this point, ultimately, he's not going to be attractive to the middle. And so in those swing districts, in those swing races at the senatorial level, you probably. We don't want them too close because independents in the middle or those moderate Republicans are a little bit standoffish when it comes to maga.

[Joe Matthew]

So maybe not for stumping for Mike Lawler in New York, but yes, for Ken Paxton in Texas, you could see

[Cliff Young]

that that would make total sense. Yeah, Texas is a red state. Maybe you get some of those on the margins, maybe some of those MAGA that might not go vote. Go and vote because they're frustrated because their pocketbooks are under pressure, but definitely not in New York.

[Joe Matthew]

Talk to us about the wealth effect before you go. There's got to be a point of diminishing returns. We talk about a case shaped economy here every day. But when you continue to see the stock market hitting new highs, people are spending more. There's a halo effect that comes from that. Does the wealth effect move down the K at any point or are these two separate conversations?

[Cliff Young]

Yeah, one thing's one thing, the other thing's the other. Indeed, trickle down here. There's not trickle down here. And ultimately everyone is feeling the pinch. I mean, I filled my car up for the first time in a long, long time. I paid 60 plus dollars to fill it up. For people like me, that's not a lot, but it's not a little. You go out and you have lunch and you pay 20 bucks for a sandwich. So even in fact those of us that are being favored by the markets, right, we still are feeling it ultimately on the margins. 1, 2. The people that don't have any exposure there. There's no sort of positive effect, at least in the short to medium term.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, seven handle to fill the car. 70 bucks for you last weekend. I've never seen that.

[Cliff Young]

No, no, no, no.

[Joe Matthew]

I don't, I don't drive an suv.

[Cliff Young]

Yeah, we're. Neither do I. I drive a sedan.

[Joe Matthew]

Amazing. Well, I'm glad you could come by. Thank you for sharing this. We're going to be doing this straight through the cycle with the help of Cliff Young at Ipsos and it's always a pleasure to have you with us here on balance of power. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Bloomberg Host]

Clearly not as much optimism in the markets now as we saw earlier as the White House, of course, has pushed back on what Iranian state media was saying about a potential memorandum of understanding. All that said President Trump, speaking with his cabinet assembled at the White House just moments ago, as we saw and heard live here on Bloomberg TV and radio, does still express a certain degree of optimism around negotiations with Iran. He says that he does think it is going well in those negotiations. But interesting, Joe, to hear him once again call back to the Abraham Accords. When questioned about whether a deal with Iran can happen in absence of other countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE signing on to the Abraham Accords, he says he's not sure if that deal should be made, if the Abraham Accords are not part of it.

[Joe Matthew]

The reporters in the room tried to follow up to see if that would be contingent upon having a deal. And he didn't really seem to answer that. So that's unclear. Remembering that he had put on Truth Social over the long weekend, what he referred to as a mandatory request that those nations throughout the Middle east sign on to the Abraham Accords. That's something that emerged very late in the conversation here in the Cabinet meeting. Kaylee. He was also asked about whether people's personal finances or the price of gas, remembering the comment he had made a couple of weeks ago might in fact draw him closer to or inspire a deal. He said, they thought they were going to outweigh me. He's got the midterms. I don't care about the midterms. Look at what happened last night. He said that was the prelude to the midterms. But of course, as we know, he disappeared, dispatched a longtime senior Republican senator last night in Texas. He was referring to John Cornyn, not the actual vanquishing of a Democrat. So that has yet to be tested.

[Bloomberg Host]

Yeah. So of course, there's a lot of tests that still could come between now and November for the president domestically, politically. And a lot of that could depend on whether or not these negotiations ultimately prove fruitful.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

And.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that's absolutely right. It's where we want to begin with. Derek Wallbank, Bloomberg News senior editor, is joining us now live from San Francisco. And Derek, it's great to have you. What are your thoughts on everything that we just hear and this standoff that doesn't seem to have an end in sight?

[Derek Wallbank]

Well, thank you so much for having me. Yeah, look, it's really Clear that Donald Trump is trying to find an exit ramp from the conflict in Iran that he really started, and it's trying to get to a winning hand. And what does that look like now? Donald Trump has a couple of things that are difficult. You mentioned the price of gasoline. You know, Patrick DeHaan at GasBuddy was saying that over the Memorial Day weekend, about 12 states hit their Memorial Day highs. And seven of those states, by my count, voted for Donald Trump for president. So this is squeezing his voters, not just coastal state voters. You're talking about an average somewhere around or above, you know, half a billion dollars that Americans are paying at the pump, extra per day. So you are seeing some economic effects there. But at the same time, you know, Trump does not want to exit Iran in any sort of way. Even though we're in a cease fire and have been for some while a fragile but holding one, he doesn't want to exit in any way. That unfavorably compares to President Obama's Iran nuclear deal that Donald Trump was a longtime critic of before coming to the White House. So those two things are a little bit difficult because a lot of the options on the table right now are not necessarily great or are just trying to get back to a pre war baseline.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, Derek, with the allusions to the Obama nuclear deal, at which, of course, we saw some sanctions relief and actual money exchanging hands from the United States to the Iranians, when asked specifically by our colleague Tyler Kendall about the idea of sanctions relief for Iranian oil, President Trump said, we're not talking about the easing of any sanctions, no money, no nothing suggesting that the US Will keep control of Iran's money. So if that's the case, if we're not talking about sanctions relief or, or the unfreezing of Iranian funds, what concessions realistically are on the table when it comes to Iran? Are we really to believe that there's none?

[Derek Wallbank]

Well, look, I think it's a, it's a great question. I think Iran is talking about sanctions relief. I think it's one of their main points. So there is a difference that we've seen between what Iran has said is on the table and what the President has said is on the table. Certainly when you go back to that Iran nuclear deal previously, the issue of US Payments to Iran or unfreezing money to Iran or however you want to categorize that, was certainly one that Trump himself made a massive issue. And he, he does not want to get tarred by the same brush. Right. You do have these competing kind of interests, right? On the one hand, as you're trying to find an exit right ramp, there are conditions that are going to have to come with that, that Iran's going to have to feel like they want to do, too, because they have agency in this stake as well. It's not just an issue that the United States is in position to just write the terms of this and everybody else is going to sign on. That's not where we are at this moment right now. So Iran's going to have something to say about that as well. And that, you know, increases the level of difficulty here, here. It's also why I'm looking very heavily at what Trump's allies are talking about. And you can see some Republicans on sort of the more hawkish side still. Trump allies very, very much. Lindsey Graham, you know, is very, very close to the president, for example, but the hawks in his, in his conference, in his coalition have been saying quite openly that they don't want him to sign on to some of the things that have been rumored that are floating around that might be on the table. So he's getting pushback there as well.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right, Derek Wallbank, Bloomberg News senior editor, thank you so much for joining us. And we want to continue the conversation and get some analysis now from Jen Gavito, senior adviser with the Cohen Group and former acting principal deputy assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs under President Biden. She also served a number of diplomatic roles under Obama. Obama and Trump won as well. Jen, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. As we consider the prospect of a diplomatic breakthrough here, it seems once again the two sides, at least in public, are talking past each other, both suggesting that one side has agreed to something, the other side says absolutely not. Do you have any sense of whether real forward progress is being made?

[Jen Gavito]

So I do think that the fact that the negotiations are ongoing remains a positive sign. And fundamentally, at the end of the day, this is only going to be resolved through negotiation, not through military force, regardless of whether the president chooses to revert to that or not. I do find it concerning, though, in the statements coming out of the Cabinet meeting that the president has again, reverted to very maximalist positions that make it much harder, I think, for him to walk back from, in a domestic sense, saying things like it's not enough to destroy the nuclear material in the country, it has to be shipped out. That's very difficult to do. And on the point of economic relief, that is indeed Iran's number one requirement, some sort of relief of economic pressure. And so fundamentally, again, as, as Your correspondent just said this is a negotiation between two parties. Both of them have agency and there is going to have to be some amount of concession given by both sides in order to bring this over the finish line.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's always great to spend some time with you, Jen. I just checked while you were talking. Last time you joined us here on balance of power was three weeks ago when the Iran war hit the 60 day mark. Has anything actually changed in that period of time?

[Jen Gavito]

No, very little. And I think that this is a reflection of what President Trump is grappling with right now, which is competing instincts on one hand to cut his losses. Again, going back to the idea that this conflict is not going to be won militarily. And so you can walk away and try to get whatever you can out of these negotiations or you can return to armed conflict, which he again suggested today he might be willing to do. And to your point, Joey's been recommending this or suggesting that this might be in the cards for the last several weeks. I think the fact that that hasn't happened yet, though, is a reflection of the reality that it would not fundamentally change the calculus. And so I think we're stuck in this limbo of the perfect being the enemy of the good, frankly.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, what is the good as you would define it, Jen? As the president continually says, he's not going to make a deal if it's not a great one. What do you think is the best the United States can hope for at this point?

[Jen Gavito]

So I do think that a strategic victory here is going to prove extremely elusive. Probably the best that can be hoped for at this point is that the Strait of Hormuz is opened without conditions and that global trade recommences largely at the scale eventually at which it was 12, 13 weeks ago when this all began. I think in order for the President to strike a deal for this to not be, you know, kind of a strategic loss for the United States, there will also have to be some progress on the nuclear issue. But if that progress looks like agreement to push out enrichment timelines for a period of a number of years and to give up in some way, not necessarily shipping out of the country those massive stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, I think that that is probably about as good as it's going to get, especially combined with the fact that the United States military has indeed done significant damage to Iran's drone and missile programs. Those will be rebuilt in time, and that will continue to be a concern, just like it will continue to be a concern that Iran can wield the weapon that is now the Strait of Hormuz at time of its choosing in the future. So the options are fairly limited, but so are the options for fundamentally changing that calculation.

[Joe Matthew]

We haven't mentioned Israel yet. Jen, before you leave us, how important is the activity that we're seeing, the continued fighting between Israel and Lebanon, and will that be what keeps a deal from being struck?

[Jen Gavito]

This is extremely consequential. Prime Minister Netanyahu has reportedly told his advisers that he's frustrated by the lack of leverage that he has over President Trump and has been openly concerned about the parameters of the rumored deal that is taking shape. And to be clear, you know, whatever quibbling happens over that deal, that will continue to be the case for Israel. This, this will not be the outcome that they wanted. And so with very little leverage directly, and with Iran having tied a more permanent ceasefire in Lebanon to its willingness to make a deal with the United States, that is leverage that Prime Minister Netanyahu can wield. Certainly Hezbollah has done its part in this conflict, having launched well over 100 rockets into northern Israel. But both parties, Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hezbollah, have good reason in their own minds for their own reasons to play the spoiler in this. And that is, I think, what we're seeing play out now.

[Joe Matthew]

Jen, it's always great to spend some time with you. Thank you, Nido. Stay with us. On balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Matthew]

Clem Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz in Washington as we add the voice of Jeannie Shan Zaino to our conversation. Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democratic Analyst and Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Jeannie, we've got a headline from the Associated Press. Since we took air today, the Israeli military is telling residents across southern Lebanon to leave as it expands operations there. And this comes as the country launched more than 120 airstrikes against Lebanon in the last 24 hours. Is this the actual conflict we should be paying attention to?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

It certainly is. I mean, I think we have to pay attention to both. But of course, Benjamin Netanyahu said publicly that none of what the President reported over the weekend and the back and forth on a potential memorandum was going to stop him from putting the pedal, he said harder on Lebanon than he was. And that is what we're seeing. And interestingly, you've also got a group of people saying if the President is able to negotiate an end to the war with Iran, Benjamin Netanyahu in Israel will be so unhappy that we will have to turn our attention more directly to Gaza, the West bank and Lebanon where we may see even more attacks occur as they continue to battle on. And so, you know, this end of a potential war, if we get it with the US And Iran, is not going to end that conflict. And Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu been very clear. None of the objectives that the Prime Minister of Israel set forward when this war started have been, have been met. We've still got Hezbollah, we still got Iran's regime despite what the President said and we still have a nuclear Iran. If they don't address those in a deal, he is not going to go quietly into the night.

[Bloomberg Host]

Well, and so long as there's not a two state solution, as you allude to Gaza, Jeannie, it seems unlikely that many of these Gulf states are going to be signing on to the Abraham Accords. And yet President Trump suggests that without the additional sign ons from countries like Saudi Arabia and the U.S. he's not even sure a deal with Iran should be made. What do you make of the, the moving of the goalposts here?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, I think when the President first raised the Abraham Accords, it was really to try to change the conversation. You know, the President I think is really right when he is imploring that he needs to get out of this situation. He is correct. He is desperately trying to find a way out. When he put forward this potential memorandum, he got a lot of pushback, including from Netanyahu, including from people like Lindsey Graham and the Hawks. So he thought he might try to adopt the Abraham Accords as a way out. Of course he was praising the UAE in that meeting for being a member. But it's very clear when you're talking about Qatar, Saudi Arabia, they say that is a non starter without a Palestinian state or the promise of a Palestinian state. And Israel has been very clear there will not be a Palestinian state. So I think what we're seeing is the president sort of publicly, whether it's untruth, social or in these meetings trying to figure a way out of a very difficult situation that is this war of choice that he's gotten himself into. I don't think there's anybody who expects that those country and the countries in the Middle east are going to sign on to the Abraham Accords unless there's a promise of a Palestinian state. And that is not likely to be forthcoming anytime soon.

[Joe Matthew]

President goes out of his way, including today in the Cabinet meeting, Jeannie, to, to remind us how long the Vietnam War lasted, the Korean war, World War II and others. He says this has only been going on for a couple of months. What if this in fact does not end before the midterms? What if this standoff continues for the next six months or so? We've got oil prices heading lower on hopes for a breakthrough today. But the timeline could be extended dramatically here, could it not? What would that mean for political fortunes in the midterms?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

It's very difficult. Despite the president saying at the Cabinet meeting there is no connection, I am doing wonderful look at what happened in Texas and elsewhere. He knows full well that there are political implications for his party as a result, just on the issue of oil and gas alone, let alone the cost of everything else. He knows that the Republican Party knows that the problem they have here is one of the clock. If they make an agreement today, it'll still be two to three months before the strait is reopened and unlikely. We have a nuclear deal. And, you know, even if they get a 60, 90 day pause, reopen the strait, is the president really going to consider around Labor Day renewing strikes against Iran? I mean, none of this is palatable. And of course that's a big if. So these are very, very consequential impacts for Republicans in the war. And we see that in the polls. We see that in the consumer confidence numbers. People are feeling very, very concerned about the impact of this war. And the war is not popular. And I don't think we've ever seen a war, Joe, in American history that has gotten more popular while it dragged on. So the longer this goes, the worse for Republicans and the president in the midterm.

[Bloomberg Host]

All right, Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shan Zaino, thank you so much for helping us work through the aftermath of the Cabinet meeting. The president convened, of course, just earlier this hour at the White House. And Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall was in the room for that meeting and had a chance to question President Trump directly about this war with Iran. And she's now joining us live here on Bloomberg TV and radio. So, Tyler, you pressed him specifically on whether or not sanctions, sanctions relief was being discussed. His answer was no.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, yeah, Kelly, at this point, the president telling me in part, quote, when they behave properly and when they do what's right, we'll let them have their money. But I asked him about the potential for an easing of sanctions to allow Iran to sell Iranian crude to market because we know that Iran has been demanding some sort of form of financial relief as part of these negotiations. But for now, the president, president is maintaining that that economic pressure campaign is going to be maintained. And that's important because we're trying to glean any sort of details on what a potential agreement will look like as the two sides discuss this memorandum of understanding. President Trump did say in that cabinet meeting telling U.S. reporters that no country will have control over the Strait of Hormuz, as we know that Iran, working alongside Oman, is trying to exert that control through some sort of formalized system. Joe and Kelly, quickly, I also asked the president about whether or not a federal gas tax holiday could still be on the table as we know that the administration is coming under pressure when it comes to those higher retail gasoline prices. He told me that it is something that they might talk about but that we're going to have to see what happens in the next one to two weeks time.

[Joe Matthew]

Really interesting, Tyler. He seemed to be unsure when you asked him about that, that gas tax holiday, even after talking about that as a priority a couple of weeks ago with us live from the White House. Thank you, Tyler Kendall. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail]

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