Podcast Summary: Balance of Power – "Trump Elevates US-Saudi Arabia Ties"

Date: November 19, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg), with Kailey Leinz
Main Guests/Analysts: Aaron David Miller (Carnegie Endowment), Anna Ashton (Ashton Analytics), Michelle (Bloomberg), John Waldron (Goldman Sachs), Rick Davis (Republican Strategist), Jeannie Shan Zaino (Democratic Analyst)

Overview

This episode centers on President Trump’s high-profile engagement with Saudi Arabia at the Washington Investment Forum, the deepening US-Saudi relationship, and the far-reaching implications of unprecedented deals on advanced technology, nuclear energy, and military defense. Against the backdrop of human rights controversy and global tech competition, the conversation unpacks the rewards and risks as the US seeks to outmaneuver China and Russia in the new world order.

Key Topics & Insights

1. Trump’s Red-Carpet Courtship of Saudi Arabia

• Event Backdrop:
  • President Trump addressed the Saudi Investment Forum in Washington, introduced by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS).
  • Notable attendees: Elon Musk, Howard Lutnick, Scott Besant, and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang (on earnings day). (01:00–02:00)
• Major Announcements:
  • Elon Musk’s xAI to build a 500-megawatt data center in Saudi Arabia using Nvidia chips.
  • US to greenlight advanced Nvidia AI chip sale and F-35 fighter jets to Saudi Arabia.

Quote – Aaron David Miller:

“This was a visit designed, far more than anything else, to demonstrate that... whatever concerns, doubts, anxieties that the US and the Trump administration has had about MbS, his human rights record, the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, they're all in the rear view mirror now.” (02:42)

Analysis:

• Miller highlights how US concessions appear outsized compared to reciprocation. (02:42–03:40)
• The visit visibly demonstrates the US shifting away from publicly criticizing Saudi record, favoring transactional diplomacy.

2. Human Rights vs. Geopolitical and Business Interests

• Trump on MbS:
  • Praised MbS’s "phenomenal job on human rights"; dismissed Jamal Khashoggi’s murder as an unfortunate event that MbS knew nothing about. (04:32)
• Counterpoint – Khashoggi’s Widow:
  • Anna Ashton relays her reaction:

    “There is nothing to justify the crime. Even if you don't agree or like certain person... does not give anyone right to just kidnap him, torture him, kill him and dismantle his body.” (05:15)

• Major Non-NATO Ally Status:
  • Miller clarifies that while significant, the “major non-NATO ally” designation is not as rare as Trump portrays, nor does it guarantee defense commitments. (06:01)

Analysis:

• The hosts and Miller scrutinize the White House’s shift from punitive to permissive toward the Saudi regime, citing business and geopolitical interests trumping human rights concerns. (06:01–08:00)
• Miller notes the unprecedented blending of US national interest and Trump family business interests. (06:10)

3. Technology, Security, and the Risk of Tech Leaks

• AI Chips and Data Centers:

  • The sale of high-end Nvidia chips (forbidden to China) to Saudi Arabia raises concerns about indirect tech transfer.

• China’s Shadow:

  • Ashton points out China’s involvement in Saudi digital infrastructure, warning US chips could eventually leak to China despite export controls.

    “China has built large parts of Saudi Arabia's digital and telecom infrastructure... Now that stuff's going to be run with US chips according to US rules... but it does potentially give China access.” (13:40)

• Tech Industry vs. Security Hawks:

  • Debate highlighted between the need for US tech to reach global markets for innovation (Jensen Huang’s position) and the imperative to maintain export control and security (White House hawks). (15:32)

Analysis:

• Tech competition is central—US aims to limit China’s tech edge while ensuring US companies have global reach. (15:30–16:30)
• The US seeks strategic tech advantage in the Middle East to block China’s “digital belt and road” ambitions.

4. The Global Fragmentation and Realignment

• Quotes – John Waldron, Goldman Sachs:

  “The dynamic between the US and China... increasing strategic interdependence... but there are going to be areas where they're going to be more focused on national security... creating disruption and pressure in the system.” (20:29)

• Middle East’s Evolving Role:

  • Ashton: Saudi Arabia is advancing from hydrocarbons to tech hub status, positioning itself as a pivotal player in the emerging world order. (21:15)

• Interdependence Unraveling:

  • Both China and the US are working to strategically "decouple," especially in tech.

5. Military Technology: F-35s and the Arms Equation

• Concerns About F-35s to Saudi Arabia:
  • Miller and hosts express skepticism that the US will transmit the most advanced versions without demanding safeguards against Chinese or Russian tech infiltration. (08:38)
  • “It strains the bounds of credulity... that this administration would give F-35s... without demanding certain intelligence constraints and protections...” – Miller (08:38)

6. Epstein Files – Politics, Transparency, and Victims’ Advocacy

• Unprecedented Congressional Vote:
  • Bipartisan near-unanimous vote to force the release of Epstein-related files. The President is expected to sign, but DOJ might withhold documents citing ongoing investigations. (27:50–30:29)
• Victims’ Voices:
  • Ad featuring survivors demanding transparency.
• Political Calculations:
  • Rick Davis notes that nearly all Republicans and Democrats now claim support, “taking it out of a partisan political environment,” and warns that public pressure will force transparency.
• DOJ Statement:
  • Attorney General Pam Bondi vows “maximum transparency” but hints at "new information" and ongoing investigations. (39:49)

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Aaron David Miller:

  “No American president has ever blended the line between the American national interest and the President's family's business interests. It’s extraordinary.” (06:10)

• Anna Ashton on tech risk:

  “It’s reasonable to ask whether or not this presents some sort of leak risk that could allow the Chinese to get a hold of the more advanced Nvidia chips...” (13:40)

• John Waldron on US-China-Middle East dynamics:

  “A lot of the conversation... has been about fragmentation, new regional alliances, redesigning supply chains... a new world order.” (20:29)

• Jeannie Shan Zaino:

  “Moderation is the watchword here.” – on balancing tech openness with national security (23:51)

• Rick Davis:

  “Moderation hasn’t worked with China. That’s what put us in the position we’re in now... China is an adversary in trade, in national security, in international culture and regulations.” (25:02)

• Michelle on survivors’ advocacy:

  “The survivors... haven't gotten a whole lot of play amidst the talk about will he or won't he sign, what is he going to do with the doj... But they were the center of attention...” (32:06)

• Rick Davis on Epstein release:

  “This administration arguably has done everything wrong when it comes to managing this crisis... You just gotta hope they get this part right because this will not go away.” (35:37)

Key Timestamps of Major Segments

• 01:00 – Setting the scene: US-Saudi forum, Trump & MbS
• 02:42 – Aaron David Miller on “lopsided” treatment and US interests
• 04:32 – Trump on MbS & Khashoggi controversy; Khashoggi widow responds (05:15)
• 06:01 – Discussion of US-Saudi history, major non-NATO ally designation
• 08:38 – Implications of F-35 fighter jet sales
• 13:40 – Anna Ashton on AI chip transfers and China risks
• 15:32 – Debate on balancing tech exports and national security
• 20:29 – John Waldron on global realignment and fragmentation
• 21:15 – Ashton on Saudi Arabia’s future role in world order
• 23:51 – Jeannie and Rick: Is the US mortgaging national security?
• 27:50 – Shift to Epstein files, congressional dynamics
• 32:06 – Survivor advocacy & political impact of new legislation
• 35:37 – Rick on the significance and political impact of Epstein files release
• 39:49 – DOJ update: “maximum transparency,” hint at new evidence

Overall Tone and Takeaways

• Candid, analytical, and somewhat skeptical. Guests and hosts frequently challenge official statements and emphasize complexities.
• The tension between economic prosperity, tech leadership, and national security threads through the episode.
• US-Saudi relations are described as transactional, with the US prioritizing strategic advantage over values-based policy.
• Tech arms race concerns—balancing economic opportunity vs. risk of strategic tech leakage to rivals.
• Domestic transparency and accountability, as seen in the Epstein files section, is portrayed as a battleground for public trust, political maneuvering, and advocacy for survivors.

For listeners: This episode expertly untangles the layers of diplomacy, business, technology, and politics currently shaping US foreign policy, while also spotlighting domestic political crossroads on transparency and justice. The conversation is rich, fast-paced, and full of real-time analysis with direct insights from leading voices in policy and strategy.