Balance of Power – "Trump Extends Ukraine Talks Timeline"

Date: November 26, 2025
Hosts: Joe Weisenthal (filling host), with Bloomberg correspondents and guests
Podcast: Bloomberg

Episode Overview

This episode of "Balance of Power" takes listeners through the major developments in energy markets, crypto, and most importantly, the ongoing and tumultuous Ukraine peace negotiations under President Trump. The show features segments on oil price forecasts, the evolving state of cryptocurrency, the delayed Ukraine peace talks, insider revelations from diplomatic transcripts, and high-profile controversies in Washington – all presented through lively, candid conversation and analysis.

1. Energy & Markets – Oil, Stocks, and Crypto

Guests: Mike McGlone (Senior Commodity Strategist, Bloomberg Intelligence)
Timestamps: 00:58–09:52

Key Points & Insights

• Falling Oil and Gas Prices:

  • Average gasoline now around $3.04/gallon; oil at ~$58/barrel, possibly headed lower.
  • Declining prices, along with rising stocks, should boost consumer sentiment, but uncertainty remains about where these trends will go next.

• Forecasts and Trends:

  • Oil: Potential drop to $40/barrel due to EV market growth (notably in China), tech-driven deflation, and ample supply, with only brief spikes on geopolitical shocks.
    • "The bottom line for me is where it's going. We’ve been bumping on that national average gasoline price for about three bucks for years now and almost always drops towards two." (Mike McGlone, 01:45)
  • Stocks: S&P500 has climbed as oil dropped (inverse correlation); a decline in equity markets could presage further deflation across asset classes.

• Crypto Market Fall and Institutionalization:

  • Bitcoin and crypto markets are in a downturn, possibly entering a new "crypto winter."
    • "Crypto is classic signs of peak. What happened in 2024 is classic peak sign... ETF’s launch and then Mr. Trump switched from antagonist to zealot..." (Mike McGlone, 05:17)
  • The ETF era, once seen as legitimizing crypto, is now viewed as a curse, binding digital assets to institutional flows and the broader market.
    • "The institutional aspect the market was longing for was its biggest curse." (Joe Weisenthal, 06:19)
  • There are now 27 million cryptocurrencies, fueling skepticism about scarcity and value.

• Gold and Treasuries as Safe Havens:

  • Gold is at record levels, but perhaps overextended; some suggest profits should be taken.
  • McGlone prefers US Treasuries amid risk, citing yields and global deflationary pressures.

Notable Quotes

• On Oil Markets:
  • "We jump on things that don’t really curtail supply. Like all the hostilities in the Middle East... Russia, Ukraine actually increased it." (Mike McGlone, 03:52)
• On Crypto:
  • "Unlimited supply... In 2009, there was one [crypto]. Now there’s 27 million." (Mike McGlone, 06:11)
• On Gold:
  • "Getting long gold from these levels is typically not work out well. It’s never bad to say take some profits." (Mike McGlone, 08:41)

2. Ukraine Peace Negotiations – Extended Timeline & Insider Dynamics

Host: Joe Weisenthal | Guest: Eric Martin (Bloomberg State Dept./Foreign Policy Reporter)
Timestamps: 11:29–17:20

Developments & Analysis

• Deadline Pushed:

  • President Trump has postponed the Thanksgiving deadline, now sending aides (notably Steve Witkoff) to Moscow; negotiations shift from a rigid schedule to a more flexible, undefined one.

• The "19-Point Plan":

  • What started as a "28-point" peace proposal has been pared to 19 points after considerable international backlash, particularly over demands about Ukrainian territory and future NATO expansion.

• Secretary Rubio’s Mediation:

  • Secretary of State Rubio acts as a bridge between Russia and Ukraine, finding more productive dialogue recently but dealing with critical sticking points (territorial concessions, NATO restrictions).

• Ukrainian and European Scepticism:

  • Deep skepticism persists over whether Russia will ever relinquish ambitions over Ukraine.
    • "For Putin, for so long, the main goal has been political control of Ukraine. That’s obviously something that Ukraine is never going to cede." (Eric Martin, 15:28)

• Timeline Realism:

  • Despite optimism, neither side is particularly hopeful about an agreement by Christmas; much hinges on Russia’s true willingness to compromise.

Notable Quotes

• "We see some indication this week that Ukraine is broadly on board with this, but... the devil is in the details." (Eric Martin, 12:45)
• "When you talk about compromise on each side, it's clear what the Ukrainians are compromising on. What is Russia compromising on...?" (Eric Martin, 17:07)

3. Exclusive Transcript Leak – Diplomacy Under the Microscope

Host: Joe Weisenthal
Guest: Heather Conley (AEI; Former Deputy Asst. Sec. of State, Europe/Eurasia)
Timestamps: 17:20–27:31

Critical Moments

• Transcript Revelations:

  • Leaked transcript shows Steve Witkoff, Trump's envoy, coaching Russian counterparts on how to flatter the president and shape negotiations, raising accusations of acting counter to US interests.
    • "Congratulate the President on the achievement of his ceasefire deal in Gaza... Make clear your respect that he’s a man of peace." (Witkoff, via transcript, 18:12)

• Expert Outrage:

  • "It is definitely not the way you conduct diplomacy with an adversary who’s actively working against US interests... It works so actively against US national interest and national security that it’s quite breathtaking." (Heather Conley, 20:02)

• Key Personnel and Confusion:

  • Negotiation roles are fragmented: Witkoff with Russia, Rubio with Ukraine, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll unexpectedly prominent after being in Kyiv at the right (or wrong) time.

• Wider Security Implications:

  • "We have to make sure this deal protects the United States, protects our allies. It’s not just a deal for the sake of a deal, and particularly a deal that supports Russia’s worldview." (Conley, 22:28)
  • Issue of whether Ukraine should be under NATO's security umbrella if any deal emerges, acknowledging attacks spilling into NATO territory.

• Driscoll’s Role:

  • Army Secretary Driscoll, without prior diplomatic experience, finds himself negotiating directly with Russians—a sharp shift from his technical and defense background.

Notable Quotes

• "This is really about the future of the international system... do we believe that sovereignty and territorial integrity is absolutely essential?" (Conley, 23:19)
• "We’re in some ways right people, right time, but you need the experience. And this is who Driscoll is across the table from... 30 years of experience dealing with Russians really helps you across the table." (Conley, 26:12)

4. Washington Controversies – Senator Mark Kelly, Military Loyalty, and Trump’s Media Fights

Panelists: Lisa Camuso Miller, Jeannie Shanzano
Timestamps: 29:05–40:17

Main Events

• Mark Kelly Accusations:

  • President Trump accused Senator Mark Kelly of sedition (along with five other Democrats) for a video calling on the military to reject unlawful orders. FBI is investigating the senators, an unusual move.
  • Secretary of Defense Hegseth responded harshly online, mocking Kelly's uniform and implying possible military discipline.

• Backlash and Political Calculations:

  • "There has been a permission structure put in place to behave like this over and over... It is embarrassing. It is not the way the United States has behaved." (Camuso Miller, 32:56)
  • Attacks are seen as attempts to chill dissent and distract from more serious national issues—strategically, they often backfire by boosting the profile and fundraising of targeted politicians.

• Trump vs. New York Times:

  • Coverage of Trump’s limited public schedule, alleged dozing-off, and age sparks an angry tirade from the president on social media.
    • "This cheap rag is truly an enemy of the people... There will be a day when I run low on energy... It certainly is not now." (Trump, paraphrased, 38:06)
  • Panel notes the routine nature of such stories about both Biden and Trump, but acknowledges it will remain topical given the president’s age.

Notable Quotes

• "What does it say, Joe, that the Secretary of Defense... is most concerned about violations of uniform while his deputy is overseas negotiating...?" (Shanzano, 34:27)
• "You know, I give him a little slack, we'll see how he does on the back end. I think the more important thing... is affordability, the cost of living." (Shanzano, 39:53)

5. Memorable & Impactful Moments

• On the spectacle of diplomacy:
  • "It is definitely not the way you conduct diplomacy with an adversary who's actively working against US interests..." (Conley, 20:02)
• On the changing nature of crypto:
  • "When people say bitcoin is unlimited supply, I say, well, not really. Precious metals—there's only four." (McGlone, 06:11)
• On the stress of the DC moment:
  • "The most energy, it's exhausting to follow him, let alone, I'm sure, to be him." (Shanzano on Trump, 39:29)

6. Timestamps for Key Segments

• Oil/Markets Segment: 00:58–09:52
• Ukraine Negotiations: 11:29–17:20
• Diplomatic Transcript Analysis: 17:20–27:31
• Mark Kelly & Political Panel: 29:05–40:17

Tone & Style

The conversation is fast-paced, candid, at times exasperated, but always direct. The hosts and guests are not afraid to express skepticism, frustration, or concern, particularly around the conduct of high-level diplomacy and the administration’s handling of both domestic and foreign policy. There is humor and banter, especially as they discuss the spectacle of DC politics.

For Those Who Haven’t Listened

This episode delivers an incisive and at times unsettling window into how domestic divisions, diplomatic leaks, and personality-driven politics are shaping the fate of Ukraine peace talks, US alliances, and the credibility of American institutions at home and abroad. From energy and market forecasts to the inside baseball of world-changing negotiations, the program brings listeners face-to-face with the personalities and decisions driving international headlines.

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