Joe Weisenthal (2:33)

Wow. And we're going to get to bitcoin in a moment here. I just was taken by the Goldman Sachs forecast. Dollars a barrel in 2026. We saw $57 I think just yesterday. Yeah. How does that jive with your forecast?

Mike McGlone (2:47)

I'm with it. The problem is it's all consensus.

Joe Weisenthal (2:49)

Yeah.

Mike McGlone (2:50)

I started making the forecast for $40 a barrel in 24. The crowd well partly because just knowing the trends and how it happens and just look at example what's changed since then. More than 50% of vehicle sales in China now are EVs and that's where the demand pulls. And so the world's shifted. We bring in more with less every day. It's a wonderful thing about technology but it's the key thing is it's deflationary. We're going to bottom around 40. That's we've done for many times. The low for this year is 55. That's about the US break even costs based on estimates from Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

Joe Weisenthal (3:21)

Okay.

Mike McGlone (3:21)

So typically you have to get below that break even cost to offset these excess.

Joe Weisenthal (3:25)

Does that mean ExxonMobil is losing money below that level at some point?

Mike McGlone (3:28)

Typically yes. And then they find other ways. But typically what they do is bring out more supply. I mean that's what farmers do. And then I look at the upside, maybe we get a spike towards 70. I think most traders are just hoping they get some kind of reason to get a spike there. Typically it's short term so they can sell.

Joe Weisenthal (3:42)

You know it's an easy headline when we right about Russia, the war in Ukraine and so forth that the oil market's keying off of this. Is there enough oil at hand for that to actually move prices?

Mike McGlone (3:52)

Well that's the key thing. We jump on things that don't really curtail supply. Like all the hostilities in the Middle east. They don't really hurt supply. Russia, Ukraine actually increased it. It initially pumped up prices which brought in more. So I don't know what it's going to take. God help us if something goes nuclear. We wake up and hear about fallout that would boost all commodities. But right now I don't see it. The key thing, the bottom Line is if you're bullish, crude oil or things like copper high not going to economically sensitive commodities. Number one prerequisite, you have to hope the US Stock market goes up. But there's a lot of indications that next year might be the third down year since 2008.

Joe Weisenthal (4:24)

In stocks. In stocks, yeah.

Mike McGlone (4:26)

It's all kind of leading that way.

Joe Weisenthal (4:27)

We start Talking to Mike McGlone about the stock market as well. You're doing forecasts on stocks.

Mike McGlone (4:31)

Well, you can't help it when you look at these kind of commodities, particularly the ones that are very sensitive to the stock market. So here's a key fact. Crude oil is down about 20% in the year on the year that the s and P500 is up almost 20%. So just imagine if the S&P500 drops 5, 10, 20%. That's a steal towards deflation. And that's. It typically is unfortunate we're so correlated now the stock market's so expensive. In my view is the answers have changed. You can't really talk about a lot of these commodities without mentioning your view on the stock market.

Joe Weisenthal (5:01)

Really interesting the way this ties together. And then you add crypto to complete the picture here. This has been remarkable, watching bitcoin specifically fall out of bed. I guess ether has its own issues here, but this is a broken chart. How is it another crypto winter? Where do you go from?

Mike McGlone (5:17)

I think so, yeah. I think we started a bear market. Crypto is classic signs of peak. What happened in 2024 is classic peak sign. First we had the halving the ETF's launch and then Mr. Trump switched from antagonist to zealot and that helped pump up the market. But we put in pretty specific peaks. Massive pile on NTs. NTs, poor performance. And look what's changed since last year. This time last year we're bumping around 100 bitcoin. Now we're around 87. But the whole space has shifted over to acknowledging that the Trump administration is very highly involved. I mean, price is going up. If you invest in this space, you're helping Trump administration officials. That's just a fact based on what's been happening. A lot of the OGs, the techies who are in the beginning like the fact that cryptos were away from the system and now they're dependent on it. So it's a key shift and then key thing. The bottom line for me is unlimited supply. You mentioned ether, ethereum. There's now 27 million cryptos listed on coinmarketcap.com.

Sponsor Voice (6:11)

Wow.

Mike McGlone (6:11)

And the fact is, in 2000, 2009, there was one. So when people say bitcoin is unlimited supply, I say, well, not really precious metals. There's only four.

Joe Weisenthal (6:19)

Okay, what do you make of the sort of narrative now that, that, that ETFs broke Bitcoin, that the institutional aspect that the market was longing for was its biggest curse.

Mike McGlone (6:33)

Classic signs of the peak. So we launched.

Joe Weisenthal (6:35)

Wow.

Mike McGlone (6:36)

Yeah, we launched a Bloomberg Galaxy crypto index in 2019. The goal was to get to widely disseminated track ETFs, tracking an index and stuff like this in cryptos. We got that. It's not tracking that index, but we got that. So case closed. To me, the next key thing to look forward to is we have to purge some of these millions of cryptos that track nothing and are worth billions of dollars, get those flushed out and then we can come to a bottom. So that's my base case right now. The key thing is we're so much more correlated and attached to the stock market now. To me, it might bring down the entire system. So I'm really afraid bitcoin might lead to a Grinch stealing.

Joe Weisenthal (7:08)

So this, this is my question here because the huge sell off we saw in stocks last week was blamed at least the real shift in sentiment on what was happening in the crypto market. Bitcoin led stocks lower. Again, that was not supposed to be the way this decentralized currency or what commodity or whatever you want to call it was supposed to work. If, if that's the case, how are you factoring in the impact on the stock market? Or is that partly why you have exactly down year in your forecast? It stems from crypto.

Mike McGlone (7:38)

Exactly. The key ratio. I love watching the bitcoin to gold cross the ounces of gold per one. Bitcoin has collapsed. It's been a great leading indicator. Right now it's about 21. When Trump got elected was about 40. So that's broken down. But the fact in space is it's all tilted downward. I don't know what stops it. And the key thing I like to point out is you have to figure out the day that the Fed switched back. The expectations for a full cut in December was the day that Bitcoin reached 80 on last Friday. So look at that trend. And so I look at it as you have to watch it and I don't. Here's the bottom line is typically bitcoin needs a rising stock market and low volatility to go up. It's almost been coordinated. But now 120 day volatility on the S&P 500 is the lowest if it's end of the year basis since 2017. So buried stock market volatility means there's only room for it to go up in next year.

Joe Weisenthal (8:31)

So it sounds like your short bitcoin, your gold call was a big one. We're at 4163. It's up $23 an ounce right now. Is this as high as we're going?

Mike McGlone (8:41)

That's the key thing. It was nice to get that one right. But to be honest, Joe, I had to take the pain. I started speaking think it was going above 2,000. Started in 20002020 and then when Russia invaded Ukraine I think it's just a matter of time. But I had to get beat on that forever. Finally did. The problem is now I have to switch over from my technical to my fundamental from my fundamental hat to my risk manager hat. And it's so far stretched versus a 60 month moving average versus most moving averages that in history. Getting long gold from these levels is typically not work out well. And it's never bad to say take some profits. So I'm worried when gold takes alpha and it's so expensive that it means the whole system might be having problems. So to me that's my indicator that we're overdue for down.

Joe Weisenthal (9:21)

And then people start to raid the piggy bank whether it's gold or bitcoin to cover their losses in the stock market. And this loop starts going, james, do we need to sell everything? What did we just learn? Mike McClo I don't know that you made me feel a lot better. What are you buying in the new year? Anything?

Mike McGlone (9:35)

Well, there's never anything wrong with good old US treasuries. So I can point out the US 10, you know, right on. 4% in China is 1.8% and they have severe deflation. We're heading that way is the risk. And if bitcoin continues lower into the year end, we just have a little down in stock market. We'll probably head towards that yield in China.

Joe Weisenthal (9:52)

We got to post this whole thing on YouTube. That was fantastic. I'm so glad you're here. Mike McGlone, Happy Thanksgiving and my best year family. We love the fact that you're part of this program. Bloomberg intelligence, the senior commodity strategist with us here on balance of power. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

Sponsor Voice (10:12)

Support for the show comes from public.com. you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic option plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On Public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.6% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com market and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC Crypto trading provided by ZeroHash complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you're.

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Joe Weisenthal (11:29)

Play Bloomberg 11:30 as we keep our eyes on the potential for a breakthrough, a peace breakthrough in Ukraine. The headline on the terminal Trump dispatches Aides for more Ukraine Talk says no Deadline. And that last part is important because we thought tomorrow would be a deadline. The President over the weekend suggesting that Thanksgiving would be the the do or die, the drop dead date for Ukraine to either accept or walk away from this 28 point now 19 point peace plan. The President sending top negotiators including Steve Witkoff, his special envoy to Moscow to meet with Vladimir Putin next week. There was talk at one point of President Zelensky being here in Washington this week. Apparently that is not going to happen. The President telling reporters on Air Force One he needs a deal before a meeting. And it's where we start our conversation with Eric Martin, Bloomberg's State Department and Foreign Policy reporter here in Washington and at the desk. Eric, it's great to see you. It's difficult to underscore how important this moment is for President Zelensky, for this administration, and of course you could say for the Russians as well. Where is the Secretary of State this now 19 point plan? Having traveled to Geneva and put some pretty big changes to the document?

Eric Martin (12:45)

Absolutely, Joe. What we've seen is Secretary Rubio being kind of the bridge between and trying to negotiate and go between the Russian point of view and the Ukrainian point of view, and speaking in Geneva on Sunday, meeting with his counterparts from some European nations from Ukraine, and he spoke to the press afterwards, and he said that this was one of Sunday was one of the most productive days in this entire process since the Trump administration took office. And expecting expressing optimism there and an expectation that there are some important issues still to work through and that they were going to need additional time, but also signaling that Thursday would not be a final deadline for Ukraine to accept this. We've seen some indication this week that Ukraine is. Is broadly on board with this. But of course, like any negotiation, the devil is in the details. And those territorial concessions and the proposals and the ideas around Donetsk and what happens with territory that Ukraine currently controls. And Ukraine and Ukrainian and European governments very concerned about the idea of ceding that voluntarily to Russia as a concession as part of a peace.

Joe Weisenthal (14:04)

Does any of that remain in the plan or have, have those ideas been annexed? Following the meeting in Geneva, we still don't really know.

Eric Martin (14:13)

We know that the number of points has been narrowed, and we know that there's been a lot of discussion around territory and around some of the thornier or more difficult ideas in the proposal, such as certain caps on the Ukrainian army size and a prohibition on any kind of NATO expansion, Ukrainian or otherwise, in terms of new membership in NATO. And that some of these points have been discussed. But we also know that the territory will ultimately be something that is decided at the leader and presidential level. And we've seen Secretary Rubio a couple of years, a couple of weeks ago, when we were on the ground after his meeting with G7 counterparts in Canada, talking about the need to have a final proposal in sight or a landing zone for a final agreement in sight before it would make sense to have another presidential summit with President Trump, not just having meetings for the sake of meetings.

Joe Weisenthal (15:10)

So with these items excised, they should have said not annexed from the plan here is it now a nonstarter for Vladimir Putin? What kind of job does Wyckoff have to sell this next week? And are we in a world now where Witkoff and maybe Kushner are working the Russians, Rubio is working the Ukrainians?

Eric Martin (15:28)

That's a great question, Joe. And that's part of the challenge here, is how do you find a landing zone for a peace agreement that is not mutually exclusive, that as you tailor this proposal and incorporate more of the asks of the Ukrainians and the Europeans, that, of course, takes it further away from things that Russia would want and Trying to incorporate Russian ideas and Russian demands takes it further away from what the other side wants. And so you have kind of this ping ponging phenomenon where you're trying to find something that's agreeable to everyone. But as I spoke about yesterday with former ambassador to Ukraine for the U.S. john Herbst, he was talking about the fact that for Putin, for so long, the goal, the main goal has been political control of Ukraine. That's obviously something that Ukraine is never going to cede. And so can you get an agreement, a peace agreement there unless the Russian objective change? And a lot of skepticism, especially on the European side, that that can be accomplished.

Joe Weisenthal (16:31)

A lot of skepticism about the timeline as well. I mean, we had a Thanksgiving Day deadline that I realize has moved along, but there was talk about this being done by Christmas or by the end of the year. Is that realistic in anyone's view?

Eric Martin (16:44)

I think it really depends on the, the compromise and the willingness of, of each side or both sides to engage. And that we really won't know until perhaps days or weeks into the future when we see is Russia really willing to compromise? Because it's important to remember Russia invaded Ukraine.

Joe Weisenthal (17:05)

Yes.

Eric Martin (17:05)

Russia was the aggressor here.

Joe Weisenthal (17:06)

Yes.

Eric Martin (17:07)

And so when you talk about compromise on each side, it's clear what the Ukrainians are compromising on. What is Russia compromising on other than giving up its ultimate goal of controlling all of Ukraine? And so that's the question that still needs to be answered.

Joe Weisenthal (17:20)

Well, you frame it beautifully as always. Eric Martin Martin Bloomberg State Department reporter, covers foreign policy live from Washington. It's great to see, Eric, and thank you for the reporting. There are big questions about Steve Witkoff, the President's special envoy, following exclusive reporting here by Bloomberg in a conversation that he had with Yuri Ushakov, Vladimir Putin's most senior foreign policy adviser. If you haven't seen the transcript here, it's worth your time. It's a remarkable look, at least behind the curtain at the way negotiations like these transpire. His critics would find it more horrifying than that. As Witkoff tries to prepare the Russians to have a more favorable meeting with his boss, he says, yuri, here's what I would do. This is right from the transcript. Congratulate the President on the achievement of his ceasefire deal in Gaza. If you're with us on Bloomberg TV or YouTube, you see the transcript right there. He goes on to say, make clear your respect that he's a man of peace. Witkoff adds, I think from that it's gonna be a really good call. They went on to talk about a meeting with President Zelensky. This is the most recent visit he made to the White House. Witkoff says, hey, just so you know, one more thing, Zelensky's coming to the White House Friday. Ushakov CHUCKLES he says, I know that. Witkoff says, I think it's possible we have a call with your boss before that Friday meeting and they did, and it changed the course of this story. Just ask President Zelensky, who was in Washington shortly after and left without the Tomahawk missiles or any sort of pathway to peace. That was before we got to the 28 point plan. Now, is this just the cost of doing business or is there something more afoot? The President was asked about this, reporting this transcript on Air Force One last evening. Here's what he said. That's a standard thing, you know, because he's got to sell this to Ukraine, he's got to sell Ukraine to Russia. That's what he's, that's what a deal maker does. You're going to say, look, they want this, you've got to convince them with this. You know, that's a very standard form of negotiation. I haven't heard it, but I heard it was standard negotiation. And I would imagine he's saying the same thing to Ukraine, because each party has to give and take a standard form of communication. It's the way deals are made. He says, let's see what Heather Connelly thinks. With us now in Washington, the non resident Senior Fellow at aei, former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. Heather, it's great to see you. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Are we clutching pearls here or is this not the way to conduct diplomacy?

Host/Advertiser (20:02)

It is definitely not the way you conduct diplomacy with an adversary who's actively working against US interests around the world. I think what this captures is not, we sort of knew that the last person in the President's ear shapes the President. We know that Mr. Witkoff, since his first trip to Moscow in February and repeated visits, supports the Russian side. We've known that, too. But to see it so starkly in this transcript, to understand how buddy, buddy and close the relationship is, it's really, it works so actively against US national interest and national security that it's quite breathtaking.

Joe Weisenthal (20:43)

Yeah, well, gosh, we know that Witkoff has spent a lot of time with Vladimir Putin. They had one meeting, I think in excess of 6 hours.

Host/Advertiser (20:48)

Hours.

Joe Weisenthal (20:49)

He says in this transcript, make sure you tell him how much I respect him. So we Obviously know that they're getting along pretty well. Is there some strategy here by President Trump to send Witkoff to be good friends with Vladimir Putin? You handle that side. Marco Rubio, as I was just asking Eric Martin, you deal with the Ukrainians, you guys say what you need to say, and I'll meet these players in the middle.

Host/Advertiser (21:13)

So I think Secretary Rubio played an incredible role in the Geneva meetings when again, the Europeans completely blindsided by the initial 28 point plan. And that was very important to get something and the 19 point plan to come forward. But I think Army Secretary Driscoll is now the new envoy for Ukraine. He was the first one to deliver it. He's now back. And of course, General Kellogg, who was the special envoy for Ukraine, is retiring in January. He's out of the picture. And, you know, so I'm not sure where Secretary Rubio is. In a moment for the secretary. Well, as an acting National Security Advisor and secretary, Secretary of State, he needs to be part of this conversation. And I was actually. I attended the Halifax International Security Forum over the weekend when Senator Rounds, Senator Shaheen had a conversation with Secretary Rubio, and it was very clear that the US this was not the US plan, the original 28 point plan, and then he reversed that. So I think it's unclear where Secretary Rubio is on this moment.

Joe Weisenthal (22:17)

Jared Kushner, parachute in and we've got a lot of people who are dealing with a lot of different outcomes. Is this messy at this stage of the game, or is this just the way this administration works?

Host/Advertiser (22:28)

So as much as I applaud the president trying to save lives and secure a peace deal for the United States, we have to make sure this deal protects US national security interests. And I feel like that's just not even part of the conversation. 80,000 US forces in Europe. We are seeing an intensity of Russian attacks in Europe. Polish railways sabotage, drones going over U.S. installations in Europe. We have the Russians helping Maduro in Venezuela, the Iranians, the North Koreans. This is bigger. And we have to make sure this deal protects the United States, protects our allies. It's not just a deal for the sake of a deal, and particularly a deal that supports Russia's worldview. It's a big deal.

Joe Weisenthal (23:14)

You just connected a lot of dots. There is Witkoff talking to Putin about Venezuela while he's in the room as well.

Host/Advertiser (23:19)

See, this is the disconnect of having so many things very narrowly negotiated. This is really about the future of the international system and do we want countries to be able to invade other Countries create spheres of influences, buffer zones, or do we believe that sovereignty and territorial integrity is absolutely essential and the future of the international system? That's what this fight's about.

Joe Weisenthal (23:43)

Well, are you getting spooked by the idea of a security guarantee, an Article 5 type of security guarantee that would involve US forces, or is that the only way to end this?

Host/Advertiser (23:54)

Well, and it's interesting. The original 28 point plan really did lean forward about providing Ukraine security guarantees. Big question mark about the US Involvement in that. But that is the key to unlocking the peace deal. We have to make Ukraine able to defend itself from future Russian attacks. And quite frankly, if we're thinking about an Article 5 like environment, why aren't we talking about bringing Ukraine into NATO? Because it's the same thing, right? Absolutely. And as these attacks continue to go into Poland, into Romania, quite frankly, NATO really needs to step up significantly, not only to defend NATO territory, but increasingly NATO territory is going to start to begin in Ukraine.

Joe Weisenthal (24:39)

Tell us more about Dan Driscoll. This is fascinating to me that this young army secretary with no diplomatic experience is finding himself on the other side of the table from the Russians. He's been the Ukraine whisperer. Apparently President Trump was very impressed by him. He is. He's got long history and went to school with, I believe, J.D. vance. Is he the right man for this job?

Host/Advertiser (25:01)

Well, I think he was the accidental man because the Russians, Kirill Dimitriev, leaked the 28 point plan early and Secretary Driscoll was in Ukraine. He was already to talk about drones to help Ukrainian incredible technology to help the United States really improve and adapt its drone technology. And when this thing began to unfold, he was the man in Kyiv. So I think he was just appointed. And I mean going there. So he had to learn what the, what the drill was and the plan was. And now absolutely. I think he sort of assumed the role that General Kellogg probably would have. He was in Geneva with Secretary Rubio. He was in Abu Dhabi where we presented this new 19 point plan to the Russians. And now he'll be going to Kyiv. So he is definitely playing a critical role. He was really, I think, transformative in thinking about how the army does acquisition and drones and, and absolutely considered a thought leader there. The Ukraine portfolio was not in his wheelhouse.

Joe Weisenthal (26:05)

I wonder if he's redefining the role of Secretary here. He went from drone guy to diplomat overnight.

Host/Advertiser (26:12)

Well, I think we're in some ways right people, right time, but you need the experience. And this is who Driscoll is across the table from when he's meeting with the Russians. They have decades of experience and that tends to run circles around people who are pretty new to the portfolio. It's not that he's not delivering the message, but 30 years of experience dealing with the Russians really helps you across the table.

Joe Weisenthal (26:36)

Fascinating. You saw this incredible transcript where we started our conversation. Steve Witkoff talking to his counterpart in Russia. In our remaining moment. How will that color or inform the meeting with Vladimir Putin next week? Is this an embarrassing moment or just something they consider normal?

Host/Advertiser (26:54)

So it's a little bit of embarrassment for the Russians, I mean just to have this conversation. And it's if Vladimir Putin doesn't know how to handle his relationship with President Trump. I mean, so that's slightly embarrassing. But this message was here, Joe. This was a cry for help to say I believe that this is now so over the top and against US national security interests. Someone has got to put a stop to this or at least raise great awareness.

Joe Weisenthal (27:25)

At least the leaking of this email was a cry for help.

Host/Advertiser (27:27)

It feels like it's a strong message here in Washington, not so much to the Kremlin.

Joe Weisenthal (27:31)

Well, I'm really glad that you could join us. Let's, let's keep talking about this. Come back and see us again. That's Heather Connelly, non resident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

Sponsor Voice (27:47)

Support for the show comes from public.com you're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic option plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there. Plus an industry leading 3.6% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com markets and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com market paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member FINRA and SIPC. Crypto trading provided by Zerohash complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.

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Joe Weisenthal (29:05)

The Wednesday edition as we slide into the holiday together, a ghost town here in Washington. The president, first lady at Mar A Lago, Vice president, Kentucky lawmakers back home. And if you're Senator Mark Kelly right now, you're living your best life ever since the president called you out for sedition, suggested you be executed. And the Pentagon launched an investigation into serious, quote, serious allegations of misconduct into the senator, of course, retired Navy fighter pilot and NASA astronaut. No amount of intimidation or harassment will ever stop us from doing our jobs. The line on the joint statement from Mark Kelly and the other five Democrats who made this video that got everyone so upset telling members of the military to reject what they call unlawful orders delivered by this Pentagon and this administration. It's gotten to the point now where Kelly's doing interviews on late night TV shows. He showed up on Kimmel last evening just to rub a little salt in Donald Trump's wounds. Not his favorite personality. Listen to how this went.

Sponsor Voice (30:15)

I've been through a lot more challenging things than this, you know, and I am, what I'm worried about is the, is the reaction and what this transmits to the military and the public, which is basically shut up and listen to that guy. And that's not the way our system works.

Joe Weisenthal (30:34)

We have loyalty, my oath and everybody oath every member of the military took.

Sponsor Voice (30:43)

Is loyalty to the Constitution, not to a person.

Joe Weisenthal (30:48)

The FBI is now requesting interviews with the six lawmakers, including Kelly, which is pretty unusual since investigations into members are typically handled by the office of the General Counsel, not to mention the broader DOJ as opposed to the FBI. But while we consider the Alphabet soup involved here and prepare to assemble our panel, look no further than the post on X from the Secretary of Defense. Mark Kelly put a similar post to what he just said there on Kimmel online talks about when he was 22 years old, commissioned in the United States Navy, swore an oath to the Constitution, upheld that oath through flight school, multiple deployments, 39 combat missions, test pilot school. He goes on to write about his space missions. Secretary Hegseth's tweet, he says the first he heard of these allegations, he also saw the president's post, he says, saying he should be arrested, hanged and put to death. Hegseth retweets Kelly and writes, so Captain Kelly, in quotation marks, not only did your sedition video intentionally undercut good order and discipline, but you can't even display your uniform correctly. If you're with us on Bloomberg tv, you see the picture that Kelly tweeted of his uniform with his medals and his ribbons, stripes if you will, Hegseth writes. Your medals are out of order, your rows reversed when if you are recalled to active duty, I'll start with a uniform inspection. This to a senator who many people refer to as a war hero. We assembled our panel for more on this and some of the other stories coming out of the administration. Jeannie Shanzano is here, Bloomberg Politics contributor, Democracy Visiting Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center Republican strategist Lisa Camuso Miller Rock Solutions former RNC spokesperson and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. What's going on here, Lisa? Is that the way to talk to a distinguished member of the military and United States Senate?

Lisa Camuso Miller (32:56)

This president is the one who insulted John McCain, Senator John McCain from Arizona, who was an extraordinary war hero and an extraordinary leader in the U.S. senate. This behavior is there has been a permission structure put in place to behave like this over and over and over again. It is embarrassing. It is not the way the United States has behaved and should behave. And the fact that this back and forth is happening on Twitter and on Truth Social, you know, shame on them and shame on them for behaving the way that they are because to me this is absolutely unbecoming. It's just further example of how this administration is not serious. They're not behaving seriously. Unfortunately though, Joe, the thing that stands out to me is that there are so many important issues that people care about and instead we're going back and forth about this. The only way the Democrat party is going to get traction and get attention in this noisy environment where you have an administration that does non serious things things is to do exactly what Senator Kelly did. And that to me tells me that their fire is lit and they're ready to fight.

Joe Weisenthal (34:05)

Fire's lit. I don't know why captain is in quotation marks here. Jeannie, in Pete Hegseth's post when he refers to the sedition video and his medals being out of order, his rows reversed, what should be Mark Kelly's response to this?

Jeannie Shanzano (34:27)

You know, what does it say, Joe, that the Secretary of Defense, or war as he likes to call himself, is most concerned about violations of uniform while his deputy is overseas negotiating or trying to help negotiate the end of a war? That's what I think we are seeing. Pete Hegseth is very concerned about his job. When signal gate occurred, it was Dan Driscoll who was talked about as a potential replacement. He is, of course, very close to J.D. vance. He is overseas doing serious and important work while the secretary is home on Twitter talking about uniform violations and potentially trying to punish a war hero, a an astronaut, a sitting senator, for saying that members of the military should do what we know they should all do and what they swore to do, which is to abide by the Constitution. I think it speaks volumes about the secretary and also about FBI Director Cash Patel. It's like those two cannot stumble over themselves fast enough to do the retribution work of Donald Trump. And that's what they are trying to do. And so you know, Kelly, he's just going on national TV talking about his incredible background, raising his national and world profile and raking in contributions. I mean, this has strategically and politically backfired on the White House and Donald Trump.

Joe Weisenthal (35:59)

Well, and of course you see people raising money on this. It's not what Donald Trump is worried about. By the way, if you actually look at his Truth Social feed from early this morning, he was very concerned about the New York Times. It wasn't a post about you, Ukraine. It wasn't about any of the stuff that we're discussing. The New York Times out with a story today and the headline, you know, says it all. It's the first big hit job, as the president would call it, on his age, and I'm sure it will not be the last. As the Times writes, nearly a year into his second term, Americans see Trump less than they used to. According to an analysis of his schedule, Trump has as fewer public events, he's traveling domestically, much less than he did this point during his first year in office in 2017. Although he's taking more foreign trips, they find most public appearances fall between noon and 5pm on average. Remember stories like these about Joe Biden? Right. The whole day ended at 4 o' clock or whatever it was. He also is showing signs of where his battery, as they refer to the Oval Office event that began around noon on November 6th when President Trump dozed off behind the Resolute desk. This is when the guy collapsed. The the GLP1 event they drilled down on when he's coming into the Oval, when he's going home, his executive time, his official appearances. Lisa, the president didn't like any of it and he got on Truth Social this morning to call out the Times and the reporter. They know this is wrong, he says, as is almost everything they write about me, including including election results, all purposely negative. This cheap rag is truly an enemy of the people. He Talks about the third rate reporter who is ugly, he says both inside and out and goes on to talk about a day when I run low on energy. He says there will be one. It happens to everyone. But with a perfect physical exam and a comprehensive cognitive test just recently taken, it certainly is not now. Seems a little worked up about this, Lisa. Is he projecting in this post?

Lisa Camuso Miller (38:06)

Absolutely, Joe. I mean, he's so thin skinned, it's embarrassing, right? I mean, this is a guy who should be handling cost of groceries. I mean, we're going into Thanksgiving, everybody's talking about how expensive those things are. Instead we're talking about whether or not his virility is what it ought to be. It's embarrassing to me and it's time for to either get serious or cut it out. I mean, come on already. This is not what you expect from the White House. Criticizing the New York Times for something like this is precisely what he was screaming about when people were talking about Joe Biden. And the truth is, is that it's fair. It's all fair.

Joe Weisenthal (38:40)

Well, you know, I just wonder if it's the beginning of something bigger here. Jeannie, you remember when these started to hit the Biden administration and then it just became a pastime for some reporters to write about his age, whether he was getting up the big boy stairs, whether he was, was what shoes he had on. Now we're looking at the bruise on the hand for Trump, looking at the ankles, whether he's dozing off or not. I have to be honest with you, I'm not very good outside of the hours of 12 and 5 either, Jeannie. So maybe this is going around, but are we going to start reading more stories like this?

Jeannie Shanzano (39:12)

We, we absolutely will. I mean, when you are the oldest president elected, this is what comes with it. I have to say, the last 10 months, he has been going like wildfire. You've covered him day in, day out, Joe.

Joe Weisenthal (39:28)

He is exhausting.

Jeannie Shanzano (39:29)

The most energy, it's exhausting to follow him, let alone, I'm sure, to be in. So I cut him a lot of slack on this. But absolutely, this is fair game for any reporter. There's been a lot of discussion about the bruising, about the, you know, potentially sleeping. I have to admit, Joe, I've been in a meeting or two where I have wanted to doze off.

Host/Advertiser (39:50)

Nothing.

Jeannie Shanzano (39:51)

Never with you, Joe. Never with you.

Joe Weisenthal (39:53)

No, I know.

Jeannie Shanzano (39:56)

So, you know, I give him a little slack, we'll see how he does on the back end. I think the more important thing is what Lisa was talking about, which is the things that people are dealing with, which is affordability, the cost of living, and how difficult it is for people to make ends meet. And if he focuses on that, I think all of the nodding off may be forgiven.

Joe Weisenthal (40:17)

Great panel today with Jeannie Shanzano and Lisa Camuso Miller. Thank you both for your insights and your humor. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime eastern@bloomberg.com.

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