Balance of Power – Trump Lists Top China Demands
Bloomberg | October 20, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode of "Balance of Power," hosted by Joe Matthew and Tyler Kendall, focuses on the latest developments in U.S.-China relations amid an impending tariff truce deadline. Discussion centers on President Trump's newly announced demands of Beijing, rare earths, trade negotiations, the domestic fallout of the ongoing government shutdown, and major foreign policy flashpoints including Ukraine and the global oil market. The episode features analysis from Bloomberg correspondents, outside experts such as Bob McNally (Rapidan Energy Group), and panel insights from Rick Davis, Jeannie Shanzano, and Melinda Herring (Atlantic Council).

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. U.S.-China Trade Negotiations and Trump's Demands

[00:56–05:22]

• Rare Earths Take Center Stage: A pivotal focus is cooperation and competition with China over rare earth minerals. This comes as the U.S. seeks to reduce dependence and strengthen ties with allies like Australia.
• Trump’s Leverage and Threats: President Trump, preparing for a meeting with the Chinese President, issues strong warnings about tariffs and China’s economic outlook, suggesting tariffs could skyrocket to 155% if there’s no deal.
  • “If they don't do business with us, I think China's in big trouble. ... We have to thrive together. It's a two way street.”
    (President Donald Trump, 01:32)
• Trade Deal Hopes vs. Political Realities:
  • Trump expresses confidence a “really fair and really great trade deal” is possible.
  • Treasury Secretary is engaged in preemptive talks in Malaysia.
  • Potential new twists—questions are raised over possible implications for U.S.-Taiwan policy.
  • Wendy Benjaminson: “His argument is… America first is, quote, whatever I say it is…” (02:56)

2. Domestic Politics: Shutdown, Public Sentiment & Gas Prices

[05:22–08:16]

• Shutdown Strategy: Trump largely ignores the government shutdown, focusing on global diplomacy, believing Democrats will shoulder the blame.
  • “He believes his own talking points... he'll just let them do their thing while he does... projects around the world.”
    (Wendy Benjaminson, 02:56)
• America First Debate: Concerns arise that Trump’s international focus could alienate his political base expecting “America First.”
• Public Protests: Escalating large-scale “No Kings” protests raise questions about democratic participation and opposition strategy.

3. The Oil Market, Energy Security, and Geopolitical Dynamics

[08:16–15:37]

• Low Oil Prices and Political Messaging:
  • Current gas prices dip below $3/gallon, which the White House uses to highlight energy policy success.
  • Bob McNally likens the coming oil glut to a “tsunami,” suggesting lower prices benefit consumers in the near term.
    • “We're like a bunch of folks at the beach who've been hearing on the radio that a tsunami is coming, but kind of questioning if it's coming or not.”
      (Bob McNally, 08:16)
• Global Supply Outlook:
  • Production outpaces demand, not just in the U.S. but also in Argentina, Brazil, and Guyana.
  • Short-term “glut” predicted, but market could tighten in coming years — cautioning against overconfidence.
  • Potential inflection points: OPEC action or U.S. sanctions on Russian/Iranian exports could stabilize prices.
• India’s Russian Oil Dilemma:
  • India faces pressure to move away from Russian oil to maintain relations with the U.S. and EU.
    • “India took no Russian oil... before President Putin invaded Ukraine and now has become the biggest customer... I think they'll quietly... move away from Russia.”
      (Bob McNally, 14:41)

4. Massive Public Protests and Trump’s Dismissal

[16:51–23:17]

• Protest Scale and Political Significance:
  • Up to 7 million Americans participate in costume-themed “No Kings” demonstrations at 2,600 locations nationwide, opposing Trump’s agenda.
  • Joe Matthew: “Seas of Humanity in different cities around the country.” (17:45)
• Trump Responds:
  • Dismisses the protests as the work of “radical left lunatics,” calls them ineffective and not “representative of the people.”
    • “I think it's a joke. I looked at the people, they're not representative of this country... paid for by Soros and other radical left lunatics.”
      (President Trump, 17:16)
• Political Analysis:
  • Rick Davis: “It looked more like a Comic Con convention as it did to a government protest....Nobody likes a good protest more than Americans.” (19:08)
  • Jeannie Shanzano: “These so far protests have been great at getting large numbers out, but they've been more anti Trump than pro something.” (23:45)
  • The question of whether large-scale protests can effect policy change or shift moderates remains open, with upcoming elections as a potential indicator.

5. Government Shutdown and Policy Maneuvers

[23:45–27:32]

• Shutdown’s Impact and Legislative Response:
  • Longest shutdown in U.S. history looms, with military and federal worker pay in jeopardy.
  • Debate arises over a Senate bill to pay furloughed workers and military, with bipartisan implications—moderate Democrats may feel pressure to support.
  • Rick Davis notes political risks: “...a risky strategy for Democrats to all of a sudden play hardball with the lives of these employees.” (25:37)
  • Shanzano points out Trump’s focus overseas may make the administration’s shutdown efforts less effective on the home front.

6. Foreign Policy: Ukraine, Russia, and Trump’s Position

[29:28–42:16]

• Stalled Ukraine Support and Tumultuous Diplomacy:
  • After meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump declines to provide advanced weaponry, signaling U.S. reluctance for further military escalation while pushing for negotiations with Russia.
  • Reports characterize the Trump–Zelensky meeting as tense, with Trump suggesting ceasefire at existing battle lines and being accused of echoing Putin’s rhetoric.
    • “Stop right now at the battle lines, go home, stop killing people and be done.”
      (President Trump, 34:57)
• Expert Perspective – Melinda Herring (Atlantic Council):
  • Critiques Trump’s proposal as a "terrible deal" without security guarantees for Ukraine.
  • Emphasizes that Russia cannot let Ukraine go without losing status as an empire.
    • “Ukraine is not... Russia is not an empire without Ukraine. So that's why it's so important.”
      (Melinda Herring, 36:59)
  • Skepticism remains about a potential three-way meeting in Hungary; Herring doubts it will occur and expects the conflict to grind on into next spring.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Trump’s leverage on China:

  • “If they don't do business with us, I think China's in big trouble. I'll be honest with you, I think China is. I don't know that they even make it. I really do.” (President Trump, 01:32)

• Rare Earths as negotiating wedge:

  • “He is interested in the soybeans... and getting China to loosen its unprecedented hold on rare earth minerals...” (Wendy Benjaminson, 04:18)

• Protest analysis:

  • “It looked more like a Comic Con convention as it did to a government protest. And I think that's great.” (Rick Davis, 19:08)
  • “What does the data show us? 3.5% of a population is enough to diminish an autocratic government. ...We're not quite there yet, but 7 million is... impressive for this group.” (Jeannie Shanzano, 20:28)

• On the energy “tsunami”:

  • “We're about to cross through $3 a gallon. ...barring a geopolitical disruption... gasoline prices are more likely headed down further into that two dollar range.” (Bob McNally, 08:16)

• On shutdown brinkmanship:

  • “[Trump] believes his own talking points... he'll just let them do their thing while he goes off and... does all of these various projects around the world.” (Wendy Benjaminson, 02:56)
  • “When you paint with a brush in American politics that wide, you’re going to hit a lot of people who otherwise would have thought of voting for you...” (Rick Davis, 22:27)

• On Ukraine and battlefield lines:

  • “What I say is they should stop right now at the battle lines, go home, stop killing people and be done.” (President Trump, 35:17)
  • “Trump is a yo yo... Trump has said, why doesn’t Ukraine give up the Donbas in exchange for a little sliver... a terrible deal. Ukraine will not take it. It is a non starter.” (Melinda Herring, 36:02)
  • “Ukraine is not—I'm sorry, Russia is not an empire without Ukraine. So that's why it's so important...” (Melinda Herring, 36:59)

Key Timestamps

• [01:32] President Trump outlines China trade demands and rare earths focus
• [04:18] Insights on soybeans and rare earths in negotiations — Wendy Benjaminson
• [08:16] Bob McNally on the coming “oil tsunami” and energy trends
• [14:41] India’s Russian oil dilemma and global trade implications
• [17:16] Trump ridicules nationwide “No Kings” protests
• [20:28] Jeannie Shanzano analyzes protest effectiveness and historical context
• [25:37] Debate over Senate bill to pay military/federal workers during shutdown
• [29:48] Trump discusses soldier deaths in Ukraine, cues foreign policy coverage
• [34:57] Trump on freeze-at-battle-lines solution for Ukraine
• [36:02] Melinda Herring’s assessment of Trump’s Ukraine position and broader implications

Conclusion

The episode paints a complex, often contentious picture of U.S. politics at home and abroad. It highlights Trump's hardline China stance, evolving approaches to global energy and trade, mounting domestic political resistance, and fraught Ukraine diplomacy. Through interviews, real-time reactions, and expert analysis, listeners get a comprehensive briefing on the intersection of White House policy initiatives, international negotiations, public dissent, and daily political strategy—all at a pivotal moment in global affairs.