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- [00:00]
A
Introducing the all new Adobe Acrobat studio now with AI powered PDF spaces. Do more with PDFs than you ever thought possible. Need AI to turn 100 pages of market research into 5 insights with a click. Do that with Acrobat. Need templates for a sales proposal that'll close that deal. Do that with Acrobat. Need an AI specialist to tailor the tone of your market report to sound real smart in real time. Do that with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Learn more@adobe.com do that with Acrobat Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio News. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [00:56]
B
Only moments from now we are expecting to hear from President Alongside Benjamin Netanyahu is in the White House right now. They've been meeting for a couple of hours and a bilateral news conference has been scheduled. If you're with us on Bloomberg tv, there's a live shot of the State Dining Room which is adorned for this occasion. Folks are working their way in now and we understand that the press pool is assembling so this could begin shortly. It's great to have Dan Williams with us at this moment. We're about to hear details on a 21 point peace plan and hopes for a cease fire, depending on what was discussed and what is being discussed behind closed doors with these two leaders. Dan is Bloomberg News reporter in Jerusalem and staying up a bit late for us this evening. Dan, it's great to have you. I'm just curious what the local coverage and local knowledge of the 21 point plan is and how much hope there is there for a breakthrough today.
- [01:48]
C
Local coverage is wall to wall going back, I'd say as far back as the weekend when there were first leaked reports of this emerging plan. Israel, the Palestinians, the wider regions seem to be GR gripped by what appears to be a rare optimism in this almost two year old war. And I think it's no accident that the word peace is being used around this deal rather than ceasefire which was previously used. Peace is far more affirmative a term, it's far more sweeping, certainly far more conclusive. And it does presuppose the exclusion, the toppling, the removal in one form over another of Hamas which is sworn to basically open ended ideological war against Israel and also suggests that the US President, perhaps even the Israeli Prime Minister see ending the war in Gaza as a doorway to wider accommodation in the region, A long awaited expansion of the Abraham Accords, which really was a centerpiece of Trump's foreign policy in his first term.
- [02:49]
D
Dan, I also want to talk a little bit about the backdrop that these talks are coming on today. You have this great story out on the Bloomberg terminal entitled, quote, can Israel end the war with new push into Gaza City? I'm wondering what your reporting has shown us about the answer to that question.
- [03:07]
C
Well, not to make light of war making, but you know, with every carrot there is a stick and to hear the Israelis tell it, the stick that might have brought Hamas into accepting this deal, a deal that Israel sees as being acceptable only if it disarms Hamas, if it sees an end Hamas governance and it recovers immediately the 48 hostages still in Hamas captivity. Israel says that basically Hamas was forced to this due to that military pressure, including most recently a military push, a very deep military push into Gaza City. That's the de facto capital of the Gaza Strip of Hamas. Israeli forces have been there previously during this war, but this time it's a different method, different tactics. They're quite literally churning up the ground and below ground for any remnants of of Hamas infrastructure, bunkers, weapon arsenals. Of course, there's been engagements with Hamas members. A number of soldiers have been killed, a number of Hamas fighters been killed. Palestinian civilians as well. But most of the civilians of the Gaza City have actually fled under Israeli orders to displaced persons camps. And to hear the Israelis tell it, this is effectively the last push, the push which would either have seen Hamas destroyed or militarily or destroyed diplomatically, if you like, by forcing it to surrender, lay down its arms and cede power finally in the Gaza Strip. So, yes, those things have been running in parallel. The Israeli argument is that as long as there's no cease fire, fire will continue and as long as there's no peace deal, certainly that firing will continue. However, we may see changes very, very soon, if indeed an hour from now, more or less the the US President, the Israeli Prime Minister announce that that Hamas is on board for what would effectively be a deal ending this war and perhaps opening the situation up to a wider accommodation.
- [05:04]
B
Would you take their word on that, Dan? And I ask you that because we've seen now two American presidents roll out multipoint peace plans that they said were accepted by both sides. And we learned after the fact that that was not the case. In fact, even Benjamin Netanyahu has wavered before Trump and Joe Biden on this matter.
- [05:22]
C
I think, yes, I think all around There is exhaustion, there is great pain, there is great trepidation about what the future holds for Palestinians. It's clearly existential. Much of the Gaza Strip has been ruined, really laid waste by this war. For Hamas, it's existential. More on an institutional level. Obviously, if you're a Hamas member now, in battle, you face almost certain killing or capture. But it would appear that this deal would offer amnesty, immunity to Hamas members who surrender, perhaps even safe passage out of the Gaza Strip. And that sounds like a pretty good deal if it's a choice between life and death or life and an open ended prison term in Israel. Now for the Israelis, there is. The resources have been strained, the national resources on a level really not seen in decades. By this war, Israel's international standing has plunged. And I think it's worth remembering the United States under this president is really the last big power backing Israel. Other powers have turned against it, including Security Council powers which have actually recognized the Palestinian state unilaterally. And I would really reckon that if the US President is running out of patience, I think he clearly is and is laying this down as the deal that must work. I think Israel, and perhaps not just Israel, will do everything in their power to make it work.
- [06:41]
D
Well, Dan, you're laying out the stakes here in great detail for us. If Israel is going to do everything in their power to make it work, is there a route here? What happens if diplomacy does collapse? Is there any sort of mechanism in place that will ensure that the negotiations and the talks will keep going?
- [06:58]
C
I don't think anyone is in this for continued open ended talks. I think as I referenced at the beginning of this interview, the nomenclature has changed. It's no longer talk of a ceasefire. A ceasefire is by definition temporary, cold eyed, self interested, and works on the assumption that firing will resume at the end of that ceasefire. Trump is talking about peace. He wants an end of this war and he wants good news. Know what? We're a few days away from the first week of October. That's traditionally where the Nobel Prize committee announces it's the winner of the Peace Prize, the Nobel Peace Prize. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the reason there is a sense of a rush around this is that the US President and his supporters are hoping that he will be named in the coming days for that peace prize, the Nobel. Indeed, the Israeli Prime Minister has already nominated him for that prize. So I think for various reasons. Good, perhaps less good. Immediate. Less immediate. Really, there's a great sense of urgency here. It's also the second year mark the second anniversary if you like, of the war beginning just over a week away. I think everyone would like to end the war before it becomes a two year war. It's already Israel's longest war. So really there are so many vectors pointing now to a willingness to make this diplomacy work. It will not be open ended diplomacy. I think what Trump will tell everyone involved is I'm washing my hands of you if this doesn't work and we'll just let the forces of war sort it out. Which basically means Israel continues in the Gaza Strip, crushes Hamas militarily, potentially loses those hostage hostages still surviving, loses more soldiers, more Palestinian civilians suffering, and then effectively a bloody unquestionable end when there's simply no one left standing.
- [08:41]
B
Dan Williams doing a wonderful job reporting for Bloomberg in Jerusalem. Dan, thank you so much for helping to set the table ahead of this news conference. Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [08:57]
E
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- [09:40]
A
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30, particularly.
- [10:00]
D
When it comes to the shutdown and the clock that is ticking tomorrow. We know that Republicans ultimately need at least seven Democrats to get on board. Republicans 53 votes. They need to get over to 60 in order to reach any sort of deal. So the question becomes, are they able to get that many to come over? Can they strike this deal before we ultimately careen to a shutdown?
- [10:21]
B
Let's ask that question of someone who knows more than we do about this current moment in time. Dusty Johnson, the Republican from South Dakota, is with us now live on Bloomberg TV and Radio. And Congressman, it's great to have you back. Our viewers and listeners should know that you were pivotal in the background and getting the President's big beautiful bill across the finish line. You've been through a lot of these shutdown scenarios before and I'm wondering what your gut tells you now. Does this meeting lead to something today? Is there an 11th hour save or should we prepare for the lights to go out?
- [10:54]
F
It would be wonderful if the, you know, the big boys and the big girls in Washington if we could get our act together and avoid the shutdown. But it really doesn't look like that's going to happen. It feels to me like we've got an 85% chance of going into shutdown. We just, I mean, we have passed a bipartisan short term funding deal out of the House on a bipartisan basis. Chuck Schumer does not seem interest in interested in accepting that deal. And I think he seems pretty committed to a shutdown. I think that's where we're headed.
- [11:24]
D
Congressman, do you see any sort of compromise that could emerge in particular when it comes to extending the Obamacare premium subsidies that are set to expire? It seems like there might be some wiggle room on that provision at least whether that happens now or down the road if this short term stopgap measure gets through.
- [11:43]
F
Part of, I mean, what is sometimes been said is that nothing is as eternal as a government program. This is a little bit of proof of that. I mean, here we've got some special assistance on health care, some subsidies that were put into place during the pandemic, and here we are having a hard time getting rid of them. Listen, let's say that reasonable people can disagree about whether or not working class Americans should have these additional enhanced tax credits. Most of the benefits go to insurance companies. But let's just set that aside and say reasonable people can disagree about that. What we shouldn't be debating is whether or not we're going to spend $1.5 trillion of new spending as a part of a six week short term stopgap funding deal. I mean, this is really unprecedented that the Democrats are saying that no, no, rather than negotiate on the health care stuff while the government is open, we prefer to negotiate while the government is shuttered. It seems like they're taking the American people hostage and I just don't see how Republicans can go along with that.
- [12:46]
B
Would you vote yes on a CR that had an extension of the Obamacare subsidies or is that a deal breaker for you, Congressman? Because I know that you also have a piece of legislation that would deal with this on a much shorter term level and in fact prevent the government, if I read it right, from ever shutting down.
- [13:04]
F
Yeah, shutdowns are stupid. We should not shut down. My bill with Senator Ron Johnson in the Senate, the Eliminate Shutdowns act would say any time the clowns in D.C. we can't get our act together. Rather than take the American economy hostage, we're just going to have a short term 14 day CR to allow the politicians to get to. Yes, and that is in essence exactly what the Republican offer is today. Not for two weeks, but for six or seven weeks until the Friday before Thanksgiving. It is unprecedented that a party would say, no, no, no, no, we don't want to negotiate for six weeks. Instead of negotiating, we're going to shut the whole thing down because we can't secure $1.5 trillion in new health care subsidies. I just think Chuck Schumer is asking for heaven and earth and spending and healthcare for illegal aliens and health care subsidies for rich Americans. There is no way on God's green earth that Republicans are going to give all of that up in return for just a six week stopgap.
- [14:08]
D
Well, Congressman, what's also raised the stakes of these negotiations perhaps is that we know that there's been this OMB memo threatening permanent layoffs if the government does shut down. Do you think that's the right strategy here by Republicans to potentially use a shutdown period to slash the federal workforce.
- [14:29]
F
In general? The party that loses the shutdown loses it because they don't seem reasonable. So right now, today, it's pretty clear to me that the Republican ask is very basic. It's not a Republican win or a Democrat win. It's just, hey, let's keep the government open for six weeks while we negotiate. That is eminently reasonable. Which means that I think that the current environment means that Democrats probably are going to be in some trouble. Now I understand what the administration is trying to do and Lord knows there is to be going plenty waste, fraud and abuse to cut. So if they use that scalpel in a way that seems targeted and inappropriate, I think it can help the messaging. If they go in and they do things that are a little bit more nuclear, I think that could make Republicans seem not quite so reasonable. That could shift the political landscape. So I would just say I expect the administration to do the right thing in cutting government during the shutdown. I don't think it's just a threat. I think Russ Vote is absolutely serious. I think he and President Trump are going to cut the places they think are appropriate to cut if we're in shutdown.
- [15:34]
B
Well, you know, you speak of the eliminate shutdowns, act as a matter of fact, we're going to have Senator Ron Johnson on with us on the late edition of Balance of power at 5 o'. Clock. So we've got both chambers covered here. Congressman, isn't this the very reason why you're out? You're going to run for governor instead of put up with more of this?
- [15:51]
F
No, no. I'm really not running away from Washington, D.C. i mean, it's been an honor of a lifetime. I do feel like I'm relevant. I get to be in a lot of rooms where we're trying to make America better. And frankly, the Republican House has done a much better job in the last nine months than I think most people expected. So, no, I'm not running away from D.C. i'm really running toward my state that I love. And I think we've got some important things to do and I think I'm the leader to help get them done.
- [16:19]
D
And Congressman, I do want to pivot to another topic just quickly in our final minutes with you. And that has to do with tariffs because we've seen a flurry of new announcements from President Trump in the past few days. And your fellow South Dakota colleague, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, did say or suggested rather in an interview over the weekend, that there are discussions about a potential bailout for U.S. farmers. You, of course, represent a top agriculture producing state. I'm wondering if you've had any discussions about what those potential solutions would look like.
- [16:51]
F
Yeah. The last time we got into a trade dispute with China, American farmers were again the tip of the spear. A lot of the harm of that trade dispute fell on farmers. So Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue did put together a pretty good plan in two different tranches to help American producers. We're probably in a better position today to be able to finance that. We finance that than we were back then. We've got hundreds of billions of dollars of tariff revenue coming in. I think most members of Congress, whether they're urban or rural, understand that spending some of that tariff revenue to try to ease, shave down some of the most jagged edges of what the American farmer is going through probably would be helpful. China is doing everything they can to hurt the American soybean farmer. We probably need that. We absolutely should help the American soybean farmer get through this rough patch.
- [17:41]
B
Congressman, it's great to have you back. Congressman Dusty Johnson of South Dakota, stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [17:54]
E
These days, AI can help you write emails, summarize long meetings and even create presentations that impress your most demanding customer. But how about industrial AI that uses data and simulation to boost productivity on the shop floor? AI tools that help you understand machine language. AI that helps you grow your business. With Siemens Xcelerator, you can use AI services, software and consulting from a single trusted digital business platform. Plus, you can find the right AI partner without having to search through hundreds of providers. That's AI for real from the global market leader in industrial AI. Siemens Accelerator. Learn more at Siemens US/accelerator.
- [18:38]
A
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [18:55]
B
Another big breaker from the weekend. It's a busy weekend. Were you out barbecuing? Because we've got a lot of stuff to unpack here. Yeah, we've got a government shutdown that could potentially take hold tomorrow evening. Benjamin Netanyahu is in town. We could be talking about Middle east peace less than an hour from now when they hold a bilateral news conference. National Guard troops are being deployed to the streets of Portland. And how about this. Eric Adams is out of the race in New York, quit his reelection campaign with poll numbers that we've talked about here in the single digits and a president of the United States who is urging him to drop out of the race, even dangling the idea of a fancy new job. Maybe run Housing and Urban Development, maybe be an ambassador to Saudi Arabia. That was a couple of weeks ago when Eric Adams said he was going nowhere. Of course, that was not his tune yesterday. Let's listen to the mayor of New York.
- [19:49]
C
Major change is welcome and necessary, but beware of those who claim the answer to destroy the very system we built together over generations.
- [20:02]
F
That is not change.
- [20:03]
C
That is chaos. Instead, I urge New Yorkers to choose leaders not by what they promised, but by what they have delivered.
- [20:14]
B
Well, now, wait a minute. Who was he talking about there? And what do we think about sitting in the stairwell for that video? If you were with us on YouTube, you'd see what I'm talking about. Knowing where the polls were, Eric Adams was at the bottom. Even in the most recent Suffolk University poll, he's trailing Curtis Sliwa. So will it make a difference? We assembled our political panel because they've had their eyes on this, too. Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, Bloomberg Politics contributors, are back together on this Monday. Jeannie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School. Ash Center Rick is partner at Stone Corps Capital, and our Republican strategist, Jeannie. You know polls as well as anybody. Will this actually make a dent if Eric Adams was at 8% here and Mr. Mamdani was at 45%? What just happened.
- [21:02]
G
Joe? I thought you were going to bring us in on Old Blue Eyes, a little Frank Sinatra, because that's what Eric Adams played in his video. So when you said to, and I got all excited for some, I did it my way. There was him at the bottom of the stairway, which was telling. It's where he is in the polls. You know, of course, the main beneficiary of this is Andrew Cuomo. That said, Eric Adams was 8 or 9% in the polls, depending on which polls you look at. And so even if he gets all of those supporters, it's not enough to help him. You know, there is a scenario in which Cuomo could make a go of this, particularly Curtis Lee, while the Republican got out and it was a two man race, but Curtis is saying he's staying in and that makes it really, really tough for Cuomo. So I think the polls are still pretty clear. Mandani double digit lead. And he's held that ever since they began polling on this race. After the primary election, President Trump weighs in.
- [22:06]
B
Rick says that Mamdani's victory would be, quote, one of the best things to ever happen and to our great Republican Party, unquote. He's threatening as well to withhold federal funds from New York City if Mr. Mamdani is the next mayor. Is he right about one of the best things to happen to Republican Party? Because this could be quite the foil for Donald Trump the next couple of years.
- [22:30]
H
Yeah, there's no question that Republicans will make good use of it, especially in the midterms. I mean, Mondami is going to become probably the most famous Democrat in the United States by the time you're done with the 2026 advertising campaign. I mean, he will appear in legislative districts all over the country, you know, saying that this is the new Democratic Party socialists, so prepare for that. And I think, as Jeannie said, this goose is pretty well cooked. Nothing else of any real substance is going to happen in this election. It's going to change the outcome and fire the advanced man. I mean, I've never seen a worse announcement from the bottom of the stairs. I mean, like so many symbols that are bad.
- [23:13]
B
How true, Rick. You work at Stone Court Capital. You're, you're in the private equity business. What is Wall Street? What is business in New York, think of this prospect. Are they with Donald Trump, do they see a communist coming down the road?
- [23:27]
H
You know, there's a lot of spending going on in the business news channels in New York right now. And, and, and I think there's a determination now that we've got to find common cause with this guy, but before he wrecks the conditions of which exist. You know, that makes a lot of money in New York. And, and so, yeah, I think the business community is very, very frightened at this point. They never saw this one coming. Everybody had this sort of arrogance that no way would the great city of New York, greatest commercial city in the world, elect a socialist to be the mayor of the city. So I think both on a business level and on a personal level, people are worried about the neighborhoods and the safety and the cleanliness. You know, New York is first and foremost a neighborhood, many of them, but it's how people live in the city and prosper in the businesses that surround them.
- [24:27]
B
Jeannie, I'm curious to hear what's on your mind, if this, in fact, is a done deal and what might come from Mamdani's proposals in New York. Of course, not all of which he will be able to enact, but also the fact that we talked about this before President Trump began asking people to drop out of this race. Everybody's name still on the ballot. How much confusion will there be?
- [24:49]
G
That's right. You know, we've got all of these people, it's too late to remove their names. Even though he's suspending his campaign, New Yorkers, I think, are wise enough to know that they'll get the message that he's no longer running. But, you know, it does create a wrinkle in the system. But, you know, I do think there is a small chance that Cuomo could resurrect his campaign. So you're looking at things like, do the police unions that were supporting Adams, do they endorse Cuomo? That said, look at something else. Hakeem Jeffries, you know, obviously the leading Democrat in the House, he has yet to endorse Mandani. Similarly, Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries got a lot of criticism over the weekend from Democrats because he thanked Adams for his service, and still neither one of them has endorsed Mandani. So I think you are, to Rick's point, really talking about a huge challenge for moderate, middle of the road Democrats who are very, very worried about what Mandani has said he is going to try to do. And of course he does. Have the endorsement of the govern, which gives him a leg up because she's facing a tough reelection in that six months. If he's elected, he's going to need her. She's going to need him more, and he may get more from Albany than we would think he would if she wasn't facing such a tough reelection bid. So a lot of politics for Democrats at play here that are going to give Mandani potentially a leg up if he's elected.
- [26:27]
B
Well, you know, we're standing by, as I've mentioned a couple of times here, for a news conference at the White House. In fact, we just got our first view of the state dining room where President Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are going to be holding forth with reporters there. You see it on YouTube right now. They're just getting the room together and getting things prepped, the flags podiums in place. Rick, one of the concerns that some conservatives and even some progressives have in New York is over Zoran Mandani's perceived relationship with the Jewish community. Based on his remarks in the past, he's tried to get around that, but I wonder to what extent that will play out in the voting results here.
- [27:09]
H
Yeah, I think that he's got a really troubled relationship with the Jewish community in New York. I've heard references made to him that, you know, would be included in listings of anti Semitic remarks. I don't know offhand, but, like, that is a, that is a appearance that exists there. There's no question about it. And what is interesting to me is, you know, having watched the campaign more intensely in the last couple of months is he doesn't seem to be really working that hard to fix that problem. No high profile endorsements from Jewish community leaders. And, and so I do think that adds some of the tension to, to certainly that community that lives, you know, inside the city. So, and I think, too, it plays into the Trump narrative, you know, is to sort of how out of the mainstream, you know, this, this individual is Mandami. And, and as you know, Donald Trump has made a cause fighting anti Semitic behavior on college campuses and elsewhere. And regardless of the motivations, you know, he now owns that and certainly will make good use of it in a Mandami administration.
- [28:32]
B
With all of this, said Jeanne, and considering what Rick is suggesting about the business community's view of the Mamdani candidacy here, do you, do you believe turnout in New York will reflect what we're seeing in the polls?
- [28:49]
D
It might.
- [28:50]
G
You know, I think one thing to keep in mind is the Primary, we use ranked choice voting, and we do not use that in the general election. I don't think that's going to change what we're seeing in the polls dramatically, but it is something to keep in mind. And of course, in a primary, you're talking very low turnout, it will be bigger and it will be more energized in the general, but still not as robust as it should be. So that can always have an impact. And you know, I mentioned before Chuck Schumer, you know, there's a lot of speculation that his reluctance so far to endorse Mamdani is tied to this issue of anti Semitism and Mandani. If you just look at the split, consider Joe Biden, how much he was hugging Israel Netanyahu. The Israeli lobby versus somebody like Mamdani almost perfectly captures this deep division in the Democratic Party right now. And we are seeing it particularly amongst young people. So this is a generational battle as well. Remember, Mandani just a few weeks ago told the New York Times editorial board, if Netanyahu came to New York and he was mayor, he would have him arrested.
- [30:03]
B
Well, look, that's why I ask, and I don't know your thoughts, Rick, on this split in the Democratic Party. Are all of those young people going to turn out to vote or will it be more complicated than that?
- [30:14]
H
Well, they, they certainly did during the primary. I mean, in the neighborhoods that were younger, we saw polling data that said he was 14 points above any other Democrat in the race in the youth vote and not offset by a substantial vote in older neighborhoods. Jeannie referenced it. But like New York City voters are not very good at turning out. I mean, the average turnout these days is below 25%. I mean, it's probably one of the nation's lowest voter turnouts and one of the greatest cities in the world. And so you really have to scratch your head and say, you know, if there's a strategy here, it's to turn out people who don't normally vote. Now, it's a hard thing to do. I've been posed with having to try that myself when the electorate is normally turning out as opposed to you. But that has got to be Cuomo. Strategy is to go out there and say there are 75% of the people registered and eligible to vote on election day who don't turn out. I need my share of those guys. I'm going to go get them.
- [31:22]
B
Wow, fascinating conversation. What a great deep dive. With our signature panel on the mayoral race in New York, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shanzano thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com.
- [31:50]
A
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H
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