Trump Mulls Next Venezuela Move

Summary

Podcast Summary: Balance of Power – "Trump Mulls Next Venezuela Move"

Host: Bloomberg (Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz)
Date: December 1, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode centers on the fallout from a reported U.S. military incident involving alleged extrajudicial killings of suspected drug smugglers near Venezuela—a controversy now stirring bipartisan concern in Washington and invoking accusations of potential war crimes. The discussion grapples with the White House and Pentagon’s responses, the diplomatic tightrope around Venezuela, the ongoing Ukraine-Russia peace talks, and tangentially, President Trump’s health.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Alleged Kill Order & War Crime Accusations

• Incident: A Washington Post exposé claims Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth issued a “kill everybody” verbal order to U.S. commanders regarding a suspected drug-smuggling boat. Survivors of the initial strike were allegedly targeted in a second attack.

• Immediate Reaction:

  • President Trump, questioned by reporters, stated he would never have wanted a second strike but stands by Hegseth, pending further briefing.
  • Lawmakers across the aisle are raising the "war crime" flag, with Tim Kaine (D-VA) expressly using the term and GOP committee leaders like Mike Turner and Don Bacon calling the order illegal, if proven.

• Quote:

  “If there was indeed a second attack on survivors of the initial attack, somebody gave the order to attack. And chain of command is very, very important in a combat situation… you can run, but you can't hide on this one.”
  — Rick Davis, Republican strategist [13:33]

• Investigations:

  • Senate and House Armed Services Committees (both GOP-led) announced “vigorous oversight” to determine the facts.
  • White House scheduled an Oval Office briefing with defense officials at 5 PM to clarify events.

2. Legal and Ethical Implications

• International Law:
  Ian Marlowe (State Dept/NatSec Correspondent) stresses that targeting those unable to defend themselves defies both U.S. and international law, regardless of labeling targets as enemy combatants.
• Questioning the Policy:
  • Why is the U.S. engaging in lethal strikes rather than apprehending and investigating suspects?
  • Doubts raised about the legal justification of declaring drug traffickers as enemy combatants.
• Quote:

  “Even if you believe the White House that these are enemy combatants… when they are rendered unable to defend themselves… that is a war crime. If they're not enemy combatants, it is murder.”
  — Jeannie Shan Zaino, Democratic analyst [15:51]

• Media Relations:
  Pentagon press briefings have been restricted to friendly media.

  “It speaks volumes about the lack of seriousness… critically important that the Senate and House engage in serious oversight…”
  — Jeannie Shan Zaino [15:51]

3. Venezuela Policy: 4D Chess or Chaos?

• Diplomacy and Posture:

  • Trump confirmed a phone call with Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, refusing further comment, adding intrigue to U.S. intentions.
  • U.S. declared Venezuelan airspace closed to airlines—legally dubious, widely seen as “saber-rattling.”
  • Half the U.S. military reportedly mobilized to the Caribbean.
  • Confusion reigns: regime-change rhetoric, secret talks cancelled and restarted, unclear strategic objectives.

• Quote:

  “If it is 4D chess, there’s a lot of us missing the first three dimensions.”
  — Ian Marlowe [08:00]

4. Trump’s Health and Transparency

• The MRI Saga:
  • President Trump, pressed on his recent MRI, dodged specifics (“I have no idea. It was just an MRI.”).
  • A letter later clarified that the scan was routine, not brain-related, and showed “excellent cardiovascular health.”
• Public Perception:
  • Analysts find Trump’s evasiveness odd and potentially worrying, especially amid election-year scrutiny over age and fitness.
• Quote:

  “Every time I've had an MRI… you know why you're there. Odd the President doesn’t know why…”
  — Jeannie Shan Zaino [21:17]

5. Ukraine Peace Talks: Unorthodox Approaches and AI

• Negotiation Process:

  • Real estate developer Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and Sec. Marco Rubio are brokering a “19-point peace plan” with Russia.
  • Ben Jensen (CSIS) explains the drop from 28 to 19 points as issues are negotiated.
  • Russia and Ukraine motivations are explored; corruption, security guarantees, and economics dominate.

• AI & Data-Driven Diplomacy:

  • CSIS ran 1,000 AI-driven simulations to analyze conflict-end scenarios; securing Ukraine outweighs economics as a priority for sustainable peace.
  • 60% risk of peace agreements collapsing within five years due to domestic spoilers.

• Quote:

  “We believe that AI agents can help humans digest larger volumes of information…the future of war and peace.”
  — Ben Jensen [31:05]

6. Markets and Crypto Snapshot

• Quick check-in on markets, with focus on dip-buying, consumer spending, and Bitcoin’s slide below $85,000, raising concerns about broader asset selloffs.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (with Timestamps)

• Trump on the “Kill Order” Allegation:

  “We’ll look into it. But no, I wouldn't have wanted that. Not a second strike. The first strike was very lethal…”
  — Donald Trump [02:43]

• On Pentagon’s Unorthodox Press Relations:

  “Franklin targets narco terrorists is the name of this bedtime story…”
  — Joe Matthew (referencing Hegseth’s meme tweet) [15:01]

• On Press Access:

  “Some of the best reporting we’ve seen on the Pentagon has come since…three cheers for the press in the United States for not being cowed.”
  — Jeannie Shan Zaino [15:51]

• On Closing Venezuelan Airspace:

  “That would not be something that another sovereign nation could declare, is it?”
  — Joe Matthew [06:38]

• On Ukraine Negotiation Realities:

  “Only 31% of conflicts end in some type of negotiated settlement…40% even during negotiations relapse into conflict within five years.”
  — Ben Jensen [26:54]

• On Using AI for Peace Negotiations:

  “AI is the platform, though economic diplomacy might be the fulcrum. But AI is the platform… to find peace.”
  — Joe Matthew [31:05]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Alleged Kill Order Story & Responses: [01:04 – 04:41], [11:08 – 18:37]
• Definitions of War Crime and International Law: [04:41 – 06:54], [15:51]
• Venezuela Diplomacy and U.S. Policy Confusion: [06:38 – 09:40]
• Pentagon’s Press Strategy & Media Criticism: [09:40 – 18:37]
• Trump MRI Health Speculation & Update: [19:41 – 22:54], [36:11]
• Ukraine Peace Process & AI Analysis: [24:13 – 33:36]
• Markets and Bitcoin Dip: [34:15 – 36:11]

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Tone and Language

• Analytical, occasionally sardonic, with frequent dry humor (e.g., references to “Franklin the Turtle” and “4D chess”).
• Newsroom urgency on breaking/controversial developments.
• Both critical of and bemused by Administration communications and strategies.

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Summary Takeaway

This episode captures the blurred lines between high-stakes national security, chaotic policy execution, and political theater. It highlights growing bipartisan scrutiny over U.S. military conduct abroad, deep skepticism over both communications and objectives in Venezuela, the experimental use of AI in negotiating peace in Ukraine, and the ever-present focus on the President’s health and transparency. Throughout, the hosts and guests reinforce the importance of press scrutiny and legislative oversight amid globally consequential decisions.

Transcript

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Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomb York business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

Happy Monday to you. If it's your reentry day, I see you. Although I'll be honest, in Washington, even with lawmakers coming back into town, not a lot of traffic still this morning. We'll kind of get up to cruising speed here with about a dozen a dozen legislative days left in the calendar year, if you can imagine that. And I have really no news to bring you on that front. A lot of days have gone by, still no plan when it comes to health care. We'll talk to Nathan Dean about that coming up as the phrase war crime enters the conversation here in Washington, D.C. at least that's the term that Tim Kaine is using. The Democrat from Virginia, no stranger to military affairs, war crime, Not a term being used by some Republicans on Capitol Hill. But what we heard from Mike Turner and Don Bacon yesterday suggested that the kill everyone order, if it was real, would in fact be illegal. Now, if you're hiding over the weekend or sleeping off your turkey, this was a big splash in the Washington Post that the Secretary of Defense issued a verbal order to, quote, kill everybody, unquote, to US Commanders monitoring an alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean. You know they've blown more than 20 of these out of the water. In this case, it was one of the first two guys end up in the drink. They're still alive after Hegseth said, no, go back and kill them. And so there was reportedly a second missile strike that did just that. President Trump was asked about this on Air Force One. Of course, reporters wanted to get to the bottom of it after it being a huge conversation on Sunday morning television here's what he said.

[Donald Trump]

We'll look into it. But no, I wouldn't have wanted that. Not a second strike. The first strike was very lethal. It was fine if there were two people around, but Pete said that didn't happen.

[Joe Matthew]

He said it didn't happen. That's the line from Donald Trump as the term war crime is thrown around. Now, apparently they're going to get together in the oval office at 5 o' clock this afternoon to talk about exactly what went on. The President will sit down with his war planners, including the Secretary of Defense, who is tweeting something by Franklin the Turtle. I actually had to Google this. Was Franklin on your radar growing up? James? This is like, yeah, okay, Canadian children's book. As the son of a children's book illustrator, I guess I should know this, but I was drawn toward it all the same. If you're watching us on YouTube, you see old Franklin the Turtle there shooting a shoulder file missile out of a helicopter at. Well, I guess those are drug boats. Pete Hegseth writing for your Christmas wish list. I learn a lot of things from James. You know, do you hear the word of the year is rage bait? This is the Oxford word of the year. Rage bait is two words. But that apparently is what this is because, yes, it got everybody upset and now you've even got, as I mentioned, Republicans talking about this in two separate Republican led committees, one in the Senate, one in the House, set to investigate this. We'll see if the administration can get ahead of it. Cece, I know he said this is a peaceful turtle, typically not carrying a, a missile launcher. Nor is Ian Marlowe. He joins us now covering the State Department, national security and diplomacy. I'm guessing Ian Marlow has never seen anything quite like this. It's good to see you. Hope you had a great Thanksgiving. The turtle aside, would such an order be a war crime?

[Ian Marlowe]

I think so. I mean, under international law, yeah. Then there's been a lot of concern, a lot of questions raised about these strikes in Venezuela. Even before we heard about this, the latest, this kill order. I think people are wondering exactly whether this changes our perspective on this in the sense of the strikes. Everyone kind of already thought a lot of these strikes were illegal. You had this declaration from the administration that they were in kind of non armed combat with these international cartels, which seemed to be some kind of legal cover for the sorts of things they were doing because they're trying to declare these people enemy combatants so you can shoot on sight rather than kind of apprehend and investigate. Them, you know, I think this latest one is very pertinent for whether Hegseth lasts much longer in this role. You know, if this becomes something that keeps rolling on in D.C. accusations of war crimes, that's not particularly good. Look, I think they've embraced the controversy over these strikes over intimidating Venezuela. You know, talking tough about these cartels and talking about how these strikes and the, you know, the sort of brazen nature of them in general is meant to act as some kind of, you know, message to cartels. You know, this is what we're doing. We're tough, you know, try us, you know, and that's, you know, I don't know whether that holds up in a court of law. But, you know, the question with international law, as always, is what court of law are you talking about? And, you know, trying U.S. soldiers, U.S. commanders in some kind of court outside of the U.S. in particular, is not something the U.S. generally goes for.

[Joe Matthew]

It's also, Is it possible for the US to. To close the airspace over Venezuela? That's what the president said over the weekend. Attention to the airlines. The airspace is closed. That would not be something that another sovereign nation could declare, is it?

[Ian Marlowe]

I don't think so. I mean, I don't think the US can necessarily declare it either. I think. I mean, obviously everyone took this as some kind of, you know, it's kind of like when people talk about airspace over the Middle east, you know, when there's, you know, strikes going on, you know, activity against Iran or Israel and the rest of it. So I think everyone took this as some kind of, you know, are they going to go after Venezuela? I mean, that's one of the biggest questions, you know, and start shooting things down.

[Joe Matthew]

Affairs I can't imagine. So here's where the diplomacy comes into play. And I'm just curious how you're putting this all together in your head and how you're reading this. Apparently the president's talking to Maduro, the leader of Venezuela, who would be replaced in a regime change. This also came up on the jet. Listen to this back and forth. The New York Times reported that you.

[Podcast Host Intro/Outro]

Had a phone call with Maduro.

[Nora Melinda]

Did you?

[Donald Trump]

I don't want to comment on it. The answer is yes.

[Joe Matthew]

And can you tell us a little bit?

[Donald Trump]

No, I can't do that.

[Joe Matthew]

I don't want to comment on it. The answer is yes. Is this some sort of 4D chess here where we're blowing stuff up, we're closing the airspace, all while he's on the line?

[Ian Marlowe]

It is a very intriguing policy towards Venezuela right now. I mean, there were talks being led by Rick Grenell. They called those off. The calling them off was meant to be some kind of prelude to war. We're talking again. They've mobilized half of the US Military and sent it down to the Caribbean. It's just a very strange thing where I think the administration kind of enjoys the tenterhooks. They have everyone on here. You know what I. And I think you don't need that kind of military firepower to blow some of these boats out of the water or two guys hanging onto some flotsam, you know, so it's a very weird situation we find ourselves in. And I think there's a lot of questions now. A lot of the questions were like, you know, first of all, why are they doing this as opposed to apprehending them, investigating them? This is some of the critique from the Democratic side, right? Interrogate them, go up the chain of command and try, you know, try and find some of the, the high level cartel people. You know, a lot of the, some of the commentary is even focused on the fact that a lot of the people kind of trafficking and moving these drugs are likely not actually formally members of some of these cartels that the administration is targeting. So who are they? Combatants? You know, some of them might be fish. You know, some of them have apparently been, you know, fishermen off the coast of Trinidad and Tobago. And so, so it's very unclear. But the, but the overall strategy, again is sort of unclear. 40 chess. You know, I think if it is, there's a lot of us who are missing, you know, the first three dimensions of that I think.

[Joe Matthew]

Understood, well put. This new press corps at the Pentagon is going to get its first briefing today. Will we learn anything about any of this?

[Ian Marlowe]

I am not sure. And I am not sure what kind of questions we're going to get from, from some of these. Laura Loomer, these journalists.

[Joe Matthew]

Y. Maybe Lindell tv. Did they, did Lindell get in there, James? I can't remember if they're. They're part of that. Yeah. We'll have much more on this as we make our way through the program. And big thanks to Ian Marlow for getting us started. It's always a pleasure. Find Ian's work on the terminal and online. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this. Did my card go through?

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[Joe Matthew]

There we go.

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[Joe Matthew]

They're preparing investigations on Capitol Hill. The story has nothing to do with Jeffrey Epstein, the Senate Armed Services Committee announcing it will be, quote, conducting vigorous oversight to determine the facts, unquote. We had a similar statement from the House Armed Services Committee. Of course, they are both Republican led with a Republican controlled Congress. We heard over the weekend from the likes of Mike Turner of Ohio, Don Bacon of Nebraska suggesting that this kill em all order, if real, would be illegal. Tim Kaine, the Democrat from Virginia, takes it a step further to actually use the phrase war crime. This does not appear to be an administration terribly worried about it. And we're talking about the destruction of these drug boats, these alleged drug smuggling boats coming out of Venezuela. Washington Post reporting over the weekend that Hegseth gave a spoken order to kill all crew members on one of these boats that saw a couple of them survive. They're hanging onto the side of this thing and we went back in and struck them twice. Now President Trump, who says he still has great confidence in the defense secretary, says he never said that and he believes him 100%, but he's going to look into it. And around 5 o' clock today in the White House, apparently the president will get a briefing on all of this that's separate and unrelated to the investigations that are taking place on Capitol Hill or will as lawmakers get back to town today, it's where we start with our political panel. Also back together for the first time in more than a week, Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital, alongside Jeannie Shan Zaino, democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Our Democratic analysts, both Bloomberg Politics contributors. It's great to see both of you and I hope you both had a great holiday with your families and friends. Rick, you're no stranger to the Pentagon and of course, you spent a lot of time with a Navy man in the United States Senate. We don't need to go through all of that right now when you start hearing terms like illegal, illegal order, like war, crime. How should we be preparing for the next stage of this story? Because the president's going to try to get out in front of this later on today, he says he believes. Pete Hegseth, how about you?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, you know, normally you wouldn't walk the President out ahead of this. You just follow the fact pattern. If there was indeed a second attack on survivors of the initial attack, somebody gave the order to attack. And chain of command is very, very important in a combat situation. And so it's not that hard to follow the chain of command back to who gave the order. I'm a little surprised if it's not Pete Hegseth. It's true what he was saying. Then somebody did and they have to account for that. So you can run, but you can't hide on this one. This is what makes the US Military so unique and different is their discipline, the importance of chain of command, the importance of law in combat situation. And when you have, you know, Representatives Turner and and others saying, you know, that these things would be a violation of international and US Law. These are the most sober experts within the Republican Party around these kinds of issues and defense, national security and intelligence. And you've got to have this answer quick. If by week end we're still talking about this, it's going to be a huge bruise on the Trump administration's inability to answer simple questions about these combat situations.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's not like Pete Hegseth is openly worried about this. We did hear from the president on Air Force One, Jeanne and I mentioned what he said. I wouldn't have wanted that. He said not a second strike, the first strike was very lethal. But says he also believes Pete Hegseth 100% that he never gave that order. Hegseth, on the other hand, on X out there with Franklin the turtle. Apparently this is a children's book that he was writing in his head at the time. You've got the turtle hanging on the side of a Huey helicopter shooting a shoulder fired missile down at drug boat in the water. Franklin targets narco terrorists is the name of the bedtime story. If you're with us on YouTube or on Bloomberg TV, you see what I'm talking about. What do you make of the communications effort here, Jeannie?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

You know, Franklin is a beloved children's character. And Tegsat, I think, you know, it speaks volumes that that is what he put out. This twisted replication of Franklin shooting down missiles when he is being accused of let's be real now, a war crime. Even if you believe the White House that these are enemy combatants, which very few of us do, when they are rendered unable to defend themselves, hanging on rafts in water and you shoot and kill them, that is a war crime. That is what the accusation is. If they're not enemy combatants, it is murder. So there is no good explanation for this. And the Secretary of Defense's answer is a turtle shooting down narco terrorists. So he claims. I think it speaks volumes about the lack of seriousness and it is critically important that the Senate and the House, led by Republicans, engage in serious oversight to see what has happened. And I also want to point out, Joe, all of this came out in the Washington Post amidst Pete Headset's best efforts to keep all of the press out of the Pentagon. It didn't help, as we discussed before, and some of the best reporting we've seen on the Pentagon has come since. So three cheers for the press in the United States for not being cowed by Pete had says best attempts to keep them from investigating what he is doing there.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's not lost on us that Franklin is a Canadian turtle. It was a Canadian children's book series. So just for context there. But to Jeannie's point, Rick, not a lot of journalists left inside the Pentagon, unless you consider the Gateway Pundit Post, Millennial Human Events, National Pulse, Laura Loomer to be such a The Defense Department is actually going to be briefing them for the first time today now that they kicked out Tony and everybody else from the briefing room because they didn't sign this pledge to not report unsolicited information or to even solicit information. Press Secretary Kingsley Wilson, a name I've never said on the air before because she has never held a news briefing, is scheduled to conduct one today. There'll be a meet and greet press gaggle with the aforementioned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, who last spoke publicly, I think, when he went to Quantico in a formal address. Rick, do we suspect that we'll get a briefing on these drug boats today?

[Rick Davis]

Well, if there's going to be a briefing, it's got to address the number one issue in the news these days, and that would be the double tap on the drug boat. The reality is, be careful what you ask for. Sure, it's stacked. These are all the friends of the administration who are now occupying space in the once vaulted Pentagon press room. But look what happened in the White House last week. I mean, like Mandani, the mayor elect from New York shows up and they all attack him. I mean, it was not exactly what I think the President had in mind on the love fest that he was promoting. And so we know the right has been very suspicious of the administration's efforts in Venezuela, questioning whether or not, you know, this is an American first policy. And I wouldn't be surprised to get a bunch of negative feedback from this crowd to whoever winds up in the Pentagon briefing today. And, and so don't assume anything until you see the results of this one, because I think this could be interesting.

[Joe Matthew]

It's going to be very interesting, I guess, as will the results of President Trump's mri. Jeannie, this is something that came up on Air Force One over the weekend. It came up with Governor Tim Walsh, who responded to a very disparaging tweet by the President or truth or something, by asking him, how about the results for the mri? We know that he had one, Jeannie. We don't know what it was for. And with all the questions we talked about, the New York Times hit piece on the President's health last week with all the questions about his age, health, cognitive ability, this has come back to the fore. And so reporters asked the president at the back of the jet what the MRI was for. Listen to this. Back and forth with the president.

[Donald Trump]

If you want to have it released, I'll release it.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

What they were looking at for what?

[Donald Trump]

Releasing.

[Ben Jensen]

No, no, no.

[Nora Melinda]

What part of your body was the MRI looking at?

[Donald Trump]

I have no idea. It was just an mri.

[Joe Matthew]

What part of the body?

[Donald Trump]

It wasn't the brain, because I took a cognitive test and I. And I got a perfect mark, which you would be incapable of doing.

[Joe Matthew]

He just, he's always got the zinger in there, Jeannie, but I just want to go back. What part of your body was the MRI looking at? He said, I have no idea. It was just an mri. What part of the body? He said, it wasn't the brain because I took a cognitive test and aced it. Jeannie, I'll just speak for myself. Anytime I've ever had an mri, I've had a couple of them. First of all, I was very scared to go into this weird dark thing, you know, the claustrophobia. But I was very sure what part of the body they were looking at. What do you make of this answer?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

I'm trying to think, Joe. Was it person, woman, man, camera, tv? That was the cognitive test that he aced? Yes, I'm with you, Joe. Every time I've had an mri, and I am claustrophobic, so I don't like them. You know why you're there. So it's odd the president doesn't know why he's there. Also odd is the fact that this is for a supposedly annual checkup. And then they said, wait, it's going to be semiannual in October. Nobody explained why he is the President of the United States. And he was cowed into this essentially by the governor because what was the president doing midnight on Thanksgiving when the rest of us were celebrating with friends, family, sleeping, drinking, whatever you were doing. He was on truth social media posting horrific words that even kindergartners know not to say that are incredibly detrimental. About the governor of, of Minnesota who came back and said maybe you're not feeling well and should release the results of your mri. So I hope we get these results. Of course, in true Trump style, he followed it by telling the reporter, a female reporter, as usual, you wouldn't have been able to ace the cognitive test. So there you go.

[Joe Matthew]

A difficult day that I Rick, have you ever had an mri but but didn't know why?

[Rick Davis]

No, I'm not sure I've actually had an mri. And if I did, I was in there doing it. I try to avoid hospitals as much as possible, but obviously.

[Joe Matthew]

So with you on that, the president.

[Rick Davis]

Has a way of just forgetting what happens inside them. So maybe he's found a better way.

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To deal with it.

[Joe Matthew]

They give you headphones. You know, they'll play music for you when you're in there because it's loud and scary. Maybe they just had some great music Lee Greenwood was playing or something like that. But if we get some details on the mri, he said he'd release it. We'll have it for you here. Jeannie and Rick will talk about it. We'll put our panel together. Really glad to have these two back together after Thanksgiving. I'm thankful for our panel even the Monday after Rick Davis and Jeanne Shann Zaino stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Ben Jensen]

Did my card go through?

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[Ian Marlowe]

There we go.

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[Podcast Host Intro/Outro]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube to.

[Joe Matthew]

The Monday edition underway with some big questions that we're asking about the congressional agenda as we just explored with our political panel, but also when it comes to war and peace. Steve Witkoff is getting on an airplane today, probably packing his bags right now. The man who has not been to Ukraine yet this year is making his sixth trip to Moscow where he will be sitting down with Vladimir Putin. And he's not the only one talking about this. President Zelensky in France today to speak with Emmanuel Macron, who we understand just as well spoke with President Trump about Ukraine. That headline just crossed the terminal a short time ago with hopes that we're on the precipice of some sort of breakthrough here, knowing that Witkoff, Jared Kushner and the Secretary of State Marco Rubio have helped to hammer out something in the area of what is now we understand, a 19 point peace plan having had a five hour meeting over the weekend here outside of Miami focused on exactly where the border will be drawn in Ukraine. According to the latest from Axios, Witkoff hosting the company at his Shell Bay golf Club near Miami before he heads to Moscow in hopes of presenting something to Vladimir Putin when he gets there this week. This could be a pivotal week in the future trajectory of this war. The president was asked about motivations when it comes to seeking peace on the flight home last evening. Here he is talking with reporters on Air Force One.

[Donald Trump]

Listen, I think Russia would like to see it end and I think Ukraine, I know Ukraine would like to see it.

[Joe Matthew]

You just said that Ukraine has a little bit of problem.

[Donald Trump]

Well, we have a corruption situation going on which is not helpful.

[Joe Matthew]

And is that impeding the peace talks?

[Donald Trump]

I said it was going on for three years, right? Didn't I say three years? I said it so I was way ahead of schedule. But I think that there's a good chance we can make a deal.

[Joe Matthew]

Indeed. Three years. The president who said he would have this war ended on day one, we are now rounding out year one and joined in studio, I'm glad to say by Ben Jensen, who comes to us from csis, director of the Futures Lab, senior fellow for the Defense and Security Department at the center for Strategic and International Studies. Ben, it's great to see you. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. As always, we can talk to you about military strategy and about deployment, diplomacy And I'd like to get to both here. Why don't we start with the obvious? And that's the diplomatic track that Steve Witkoff and others are on. The President seems to be dispatching different voices here. Kushner and Witkoff, you go to one Secretary of State. Rubio, you go to the other. At some point, we need everybody at the same table, don't we?

[Ben Jensen]

We do, but I also. This is how modern peace negotiations work. So despite some of the strangeness that surrounds this, despite that it's a very tight personalistic network that the President is using to negot, which is different than standard diplomatic practice, at least in the United States. Everything you're seeing playing out is actually not that uncommon in some senses. So if you look at the actual statistics of how peace negotiations and wars end, sadly, in the modern world, wars either peter out or you come to an uneasy ceasefire that fails. So only 31% of conflicts end in some type of negotiated settlement. And even of those, 40%, even during negotiations, relapse into conflict within five years. So I think that's why you've accurately seen Secretary Rubio characterize this phase as the start of a negotiation. He called it, I think, a living document.

[Joe Matthew]

That's right.

[Ben Jensen]

And so that's why you have everyone going out, trusted person to person conversations. And we're trying to work out, we've gone from 28, the US initial kind of Wyckoff deal, I guess we can call it down to 24, the European. Now we're down to a. A 19 point proposal. And so what you're seeing is each side engage in a bargaining activity that allows them to look at where the most intractable issues are, what's mutually acceptable, although painful to both sides. So I'm still mildly optimistic, but I think the best case is that this all results in a ceasefire. And I'd rate that as less than even chances.

[Joe Matthew]

Fascinating. I've never heard those stats before. That's fascinating. For the backdrop to these talks, there's a lot that Ukraine has to potentially lose here. What would Russia be giving up in the plans that you've heard about?

[Ben Jensen]

Well, I'm curious about that too. And apparently only special envoy Wyckoff knows that, and it doesn't look like a lot. So we've actually been studying this pretty in depth at the Futures Lab for a year. So about a year ago, I traveled to Ukraine about every six months to try to do my best to help out with that side of the conflict, not the Russian side. And what I noticed in that process is. I had a sense of the war was going to. Is coming to a critical point and you're going to have to end at some point. No war can last forever. This has been brutal for Ukrainian society. These are people fighting for their freedom against all odds. And so we started to write over the last year of what would the negotiations look like. In fact, we actually surveyed experts, we scraped prominent news sources, and then we actually trained using an API into ChatGPT4. Oh, we actually ran 1,000 different simulations of different peace negotiations to use kind of modern technology to analyze the distribution. And so your viewers can check that out at strategic headwinds. But that's a lot of our research on this is shown.

[Joe Matthew]

That's all public.

[Ben Jensen]

That's all public. We built this because we want Ukrainian negotiators, European negotiators, American negotiators, first and foremost to have access to objective, nonpartisan data they can use to help find a negotiation. What do you find in that number one good news about the Macron meeting? Because whenever we look at human experts or the AI model replicating them, security guarantees are the most important thing. So the 28 point plan was dead on arrival because it didn't really have anything for credible security guarantees. It kind of threatened diplomatic demarches and some economic punishment. So security guarantees are by far the most important thing where we saw humans and AI diverge is what comes next. Humans seem to think there's really a room for freeing up these Russian frozen assets, giving it back to Moscow, reducing sanctions, so using economics to induce Moscow in. When we ran the AI simulations, and that included loading over 300 past peace agreements in, they were less optimistic about the economic component. Now, I still personally think economic statecraft is the fulcrum here. That's the only way you can get Russia to agree. And I think the good news, if there is any out of the Wyckoff trips, is that he seems to have the right people in Russia talking about some type of investment scheme. The bad news is that doesn't seem to direct the money to rebuild Ukraine that Russia has spent years now destroying.

[Joe Matthew]

I am blown away by this. Did you know, James, we were going to get into this? So AI is the platform, though economic diplomacy might be the fulcrum, but AI is the platform that you're talking about to find peace.

[Rick Davis]

Yes.

[Joe Matthew]

The future of war and peace?

[Ben Jensen]

Well, we think so. I mean, in my lab we believe that AI agents, AI agents can help humans digest larger volumes of information. So you still need expert human users. And I'm sure your audience in Bloomberg has been using technology like this for a long time, right? It's still a trader's intuition, but the more data they can analyze, the more they can apply statistical reasoning to it, the more they can find past patterns, look for those strange signals, the more likely they are to seize an opportunity. So what we've done is use that initial analytics to then look at where we needed to go deep. And that's why most of the pieces your viewers will find on there deal with the details of security guarantees and then some of the economic aspects. Now, one of the most important things to highlight in that all parties agree is that even if it seems like this deal comes to an end, it doesn't. That 40% relapsing in five years is really important. And one of the major things to really watch for is usually the reason it relapses is because each political party has a backlash, a spoiler domestically. So Zelensky, if that line is drawn wrong and in the middle of a corruption scandal, Zelensky's all of a sudden voted or chased out of office. And you have hardline factions come up in Ukraine. I'd love to see Putin replaced, but we ought to really think what comes after Putin and if even Russia would stay a actual sovereign state or do dissolve into a series of regions. So one of the things you have to watch for carefully as you spread this out, and this is why it's important to build that rag model with AI to analyze historic peace agreements, is that domestic political spoiler. How domestic politics matter when you're ending an international war.

[Joe Matthew]

This has been a real eye opener for me. Before you leave us with all of that said, do you expect this week to bring a breakthrough or are we way over our skis on this?

[Ben Jensen]

I hope and pray are different than reasoned estimates. And so I would say I don't. I think Secretary Rubio is right. This is a living document. I think Putin is going to prolong this as much as possible and he's still going to try to bomb Ukraine into submission. Our firepower strike data show that the month of October saw a threefold increase over one year. So October 2024 versus 2025. Three times as many Shaheds Ballistic missiles and Cruisers cruise missiles were used to target Ukrainian cities with a special focus on power infrastructure. He wants the Ukrainian people to freeze while he protracts negotiations so that he can get more territory and get more of that oligarch loot back in his pocket. And not investing in a dynamic Ukrainian free economy cold as a weapon.

[Joe Matthew]

I learned something every time I talk to you. Ben Jensen, csis, thank you so much. We all learn from Ben when he's here. Back it up on YouTube or on TV or subscribe to the podcast because I haven't heard that anywhere. Center for Strategic and International Studies Ben jensen, I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. As we round out balance of power here for this Monday, the early edition, we want to just keep tabs on what's happening on Wall street because we saw a real run at a recovery a short time ago. We're back in the red here, but well off our lows of the session. And Norma Linda, Bloomberg Markets Course Spondent is with us now from world headquarters in New York. We just can't help ourselves from buying the dip here, Nora.

[Nora Melinda]

We clearly cannot. But I mean, we are seeing a lot of dip buyers out in the market, as you mentioned here. This is really encouraging to a lot of the sources that I've been speaking with, especially as we think about the momentum headed into year end. I mean, if you think about the fact that we've been seeing a rally, the longest streak of monthly gains since 2021. But as we sit here today, of course we are seeing a bit of a breather from that rally as we are seeing stocks here falling into the red. And it's a little bit of risk off sentiment that we're seeing percolating right now, especially as we see a lot of traders looking ahead to the Fed meeting. There's still a lot of unrest right now, a lot of questions right now about the strength of the consumer. But I mean, of course we did get that retail picture here from Black Friday here. That really did show us that we are seeing strength in the consumer despite the fact that there were a lot of concerns about resiliency there.

[Joe Matthew]

Bitcoin remains a problem here. I guess crypto across the board. We're back below 85,000. Nor a lot of the narrative last week and the week earlier when things started to fall out of bed was that crypto was the culprit here in leading stocks lower that it was forcing people to raise money in stocks like in video and the Mag 7. And it's still going down. Nora, how should we be reading into this market wide?

[Nora Melinda]

Well, analysts are really looking at 80,000 as the new key support level here. And this is really a big difference from what we saw when we saw a rally of bitcoin above 100,000. So we really are seeing some pressure here on this asset class. And it's no surprise when you did see a lot of people pulling out of Bitcoin when there is some sort of risk off sentiment in the market. But we did get that news from Strategy, of course, also seeing a sell off after they said that they had we're creating a $1.4 billion reserve to pay for future dividend and interest payments. But a lot of investors are really saying that this isn't really going to quelling concerns more broadly that a lot of these companies like bitcoin treasury firms are actually going to be able to be forced to sell their Bitcoin holdings here, especially if we continue to see a downward trend.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah. Well, we'll keep tabs on the rest of the session with your help. Nora. Thank you so much, Nora. Melinda Back with us on BALANCE OF power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington, where we now have breaking news coming from the White House. In our remaining moment. I do want to let you know. And Caroline Levin is talking about this with reporters in the briefing room. We have a document here about President Trump's mri. He was asked about this on the plane last evening and could not detail what body part was being looked at. Apparently, according to Caroline Levitt, again the White House press secretary, this was preventative. The MRI preventative imaging, cardiovascular imaging. The president's cardiovascular system showing excellent health. Abdominal imaging perfectly normal. As I read from the letter, President Trump's cardiovascular imaging perfectly normal. There is no evidence of arterial narrowing, impairing blood flow or abnormalities in the heart or major vessels. The heart chambers are normal in size, it reads. The vessel walls appear smooth and healthy and there are no signs of inflammation or clotting. Overall, cardiovascular system showing excellent health. The president made clear it was not likely his brain they were looking at. Now we know it was his heart. And we will have more on this on the late edition of Balance OF power. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail] hey, Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. You know, one of the perks about having four kids that you know about is actually getting a direct line to to the big man up north. And this year he wants you to know the best gift that you can give someone is the gift of Mint Mobile's unlimited wireless for $15 a month. Now you don't even need to wrap it. Give it a [e-mail] Switch upfront payment.

[Nora Melinda]

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