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- [00:00]
A
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B
There are big questions about the TRA victory for energy prices here as we watch WTI West Texas intermediate flirt with $80 a barrel now and Brent is looking at that level in the rear view mirror. Thanks for being with us here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. It is the Thursday edition somehow already, and we're waiting to hear the latest from the administration when it comes to those operations in Iran. We're already hearing news right now breaking with a redhead on the terminal when it comes to the use of Anthropics AI technology at the Pentagon, having heard quite a bit of reporting, including great reporting from Bloomberg today about the extent to which this technology, not AI in general, including that, yes, but what is coming from Anthropic, the platform called Claude, and a high stakes dispute between the Pentagon and Dario Amadei, the man behind Anthropic, who of course has demanded repeatedly that its technology not be used for mass surveillance or for human free weaponry, autonomous weaponry. The President, as he said earlier in an interview, has already fired Anthropic and we saw that take place last week with Anthropic rejecting the counteroffer from the United States and then at least on Twitter, word that the company had been deemed a supply chain risk. We are now running a red headline on the terminal and it's coming from the Pentagon. It has told Anthropic formally now that the firm is a supply chain risk even though it is using its technology or has been until this last hour in operations in Iran. Anthropic has had no immediate comment on the decision. The Pentagon notification to Anthropic has been confirmed by a U.S. official realizing that this is something that had only been stated to our knowledge on Social media. Until now, much of this technology again has been used in theater here with helping to prioritize targets as an element of the Maven smart system that is made by Palantir. We're going to have a lot more on this as we learn more throughout the day here. Because if this is in fact a supply chain risk, as the Pentagon is now informing Anthropic, that means every other defense contractor working with the Pentagon will have to cut ties with Anthropic. And that could be quite a project unwinding the use of this technology which has many tentacles in many different companies and areas here. We do want to follow the bead on what's happening in Iran. The president putting a grade on operations on this now sixth day. Listen to the president live from the White House. We're doing very well on, on the war front, to put it mildly, I would say. Somebody said on a scale of 10, where would you rate it? I said about a 15. And we're going to continue to do well. We have the greatest military in the world by far. You see it as well as I do. You see the trip, tremendous progress that's being made. Their missiles are being wiped out rapidly. Their launches are being wiped out. That was from yesterday at an unrelated event, by the way, he spent quite a bit of time talking just off the top of his head about Iran because this is the story of the moment. That certainly is the case for our colleague. Jeff Mason, Bloomberg White House correspondent, is on the North Lawn right now and joins us with the very latest here. Jeff, it's great to see you. We're coming off an important war powers vote in the Senate that surprised no one. Of course, that bill failed, almost giving the president a green light here. By way of that failed vote, we talk about the war in Iran. Is the war a war?
- [04:40]
C
Forgive me for chuckling at that, but there is this really interesting debate over semantics going on in Washington, which is exactly the question that you just asked. President Trump is referring to the operation in Iran and he used that language. He used that word in his announcement about it in the early hours of Saturday when the operation was underway. Republicans on the Hill, however, are reluctant to use that word, probably because it is something that they don't want to concede that the president didn't come to Congress and ask for approval, which is constitutionally what is required for a declaration of war. So you have Democrats sort of throwing their hands up and saying, well, obviously it's a war. And, and Republicans not wanting to use that language, even though the commander in
- [05:24]
B
chief is really interesting, Jeff. Do we have a sense of how the president is spending his time here? Is, is he in the Situation Room now that he's back in the White House, realizing that he was at Mar a Lago when the initial strikes took place? We heard earlier that Pete Hegseth sees him every day. What is this mechanism like to the extent that it's running inside the White House?
- [05:46]
C
Sure. He's got a handful of meetings on the public schedule that was released to the press today, a couple policy related meetings. I can't tell you for sure if he's in the Situation Room or in the Oval Office, but I can tell you that he can hold these types of meetings pretty much anywhere he wants as long as it's in a secure spot, which he also has at Mar a Lago, which, as you mentioned, is where he sort of presided over the beginning of the war several days ago,
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B
Jeff, the president told Axios when his phone rang a little while ago and I find it amazing that he's taking all these calls from reporters that he, he must play a role in choosing the next leader of Iran. How would that work? And is that something that we would work with Israel or other partners in the region on?
- [06:35]
C
I think you're asking the right question. How would that work?
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D
Indeed.
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C
And the president didn't exactly spell that out and hasn't spelled that out. In fact, you played a clip earlier from his remarks yesterday about giving himself a grade for how well the war was going. He also said, I think this was yesterday, that the list of potential leaders to take over in Iran was narrowing because they were all dead. So he, and he didn't give more specifics about who he had in mind. But it is interesting that he's saying the US Would like to have a role in that. That's sort of, again, part of the broader question of what happens when this is over, what is the end game, number one, and what happens to the country and the leadership and the next steps once the strikes are over.
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B
Jeff, I appreciate it as always. Jeff Mason, live from the White House on an important day here as we prepare to speak with Israel's ambassador to the U.S. we want to go back to the baseline and reset what the administration is framing as the justification for this war and also what the objectives are to accomplish the mission. Here's the press secretary, Caroline Levitt, from yesterday in the briefing room.
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E
The truth is we'll have to wait and see. The president has said repeatedly that the objectives of Operation Epic Fury are the Four military objectives that I laid out for you to destroy Iran's navy, to destroy their ballistic missile capacity, to ensure their proxies in the region can no longer harm Americans, and to also ensure that they can never obtain a nuclear weapon. As for what comes next for Iran, the president has said, of course, it's a good thing for the United States to want freedom for the Iranian people. And ultimately, we hope that freedom rests in their hands.
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B
Caroline Levitt from earlier, as we add the voice of Dr. Michael Leiter, Israel's ambassador to the United States, with us live now on Bloomberg TV and radio. Mr. Ambassador, thank you for the time on what I know is a very busy time for you. Do you share the same objectives? Does the US And Israel share the same objectives and outcomes when it comes to Iran, or are there more things that Israel would like to see?
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D
The level of collaboration between Israel and the United States is unprecedented on every level. The prime minister and the president speak frequently. The chiefs of staff speak frequently, several times a day. And our pilots are meeting over the skies on the way to Iran and fighting wing to wing, shoulder to shoulder. In terms of the objectives, I think that they're very clear. We cannot have the world cannot have a regime in Tehran which tries to attain a nuclear weapon. We see these ballistic missiles raining into all of our neighbors right now, crashing into hotels, into airports, into civilian buildings. Imagine for one moment that they had a nuclear warhead on these ballistic missiles. They'd use them. That's what we've been saying for many years. This operation is intended to eliminate the possibility that there'll be a regime that will use ballistic missiles, that will develop ballistic missiles with a malign intent that will try to enrich uranium and that will export terror through their proxies around the region. The potential here, once Iran is defeated, once this regime is defeated, is for an expansion of peace and Abraham accords throughout the region.
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B
I know that the US And Israel have been working in concert militarily and with regard to intelligence at just about every turn here. But U.S. officials have gone out of their way to point out that Israel conducted the strike against the ayatollah and his lieutenants who were meeting last weekend. Why is that?
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D
Well, what we've achieved by cutting off the head of the snake, the leadership in the first 40 seconds we took out 40 of the leaders is because the cracks in the system are now beginning to be apparent to everyone. This kind of wild firing of the missiles is a result of the fact that there is not a consistent chain of command so the importance of taking out the Supreme Leader, who's really given the, shall we say, ideological, theological backdrop for this regime that has exported terrorism, mayhem and murder and destruction throughout the region, was very, very critical for the war effort. And I think we're seeing the results of that right now.
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B
I appreciate your answer, Ambassador, but I just wonder, was it the US Or Israel who determined that that would be an Israeli strike?
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D
I don't think you expect me actually to get into a discussion of operational planning here. This is being conducted in close collaboration, unprecedented collaboration. And the operation, all told, is going very well. We see the chaos going on right now throughout Iran. They have not been able to or refuse to bury the Supreme Leader. They haven't chosen a. A successor to him. There is tensions within the irgc. They're beginning to turn on each other, and we're beginning to see the opposition in Iran coalesce and unify. And that's really where this needs to go and where ultimately it will go, where the people of Iran themselves will do the, in fact, the regime change. They'll be the boots on the ground.
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B
President Trump saying today in an interview with Axios ambassador that he wants to play a role in choosing the next leader of Iran. Is that something that Israel would join him in deciding? Is that something that will be determined by these two nations or more?
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D
It's a little bit above my pay grade when the President intends to be involved in the choosing of the successor. I would say this, that we are working very closely together to ensure that the various opposition groups in Iran, which really, that's been the key for 47 years, they haven't been able to coalesce. Were they able to coalesce earlier, they probably would have brought this regime down. Hopefully, they'll be able to do it now. And if these minority groups come together, we have to remember 80% of the country opposes this regime. We have polled this extensively through our Mossad, and we know that 80% of the country opposes this regime. And we saw what happened last month when tens of thousands of people were murdered by this regime, but many millions came out to the streets. So if they coalesce and they come together and unify, there's going to be a different regime. And if we could influence that together and help them get on board with a transitional government that would ultimately move the country into a democratic process, well, that will be. That will be just consequential, not only for Iran, but for the entire region.
- [13:41]
B
Can the US And Israel help ensure that they are not murdered again?
- [13:47]
D
I think that if we're successful in taking apart this terror infrastructure that exists under the Ayatollahs, it's not going to be simple. But we've had tremendous achievements so far. This is just the sixth day of the war, and they're left without a navy. They're left without missile launchers. They're in complete chaos. We've taken out their command centers in Tehran, their production of ballistic missiles. So I think we have a good shot at finishing this soon and then moving into a mode of. Of stabilization where the opposition that comes together will indeed be safe. I think that the 80% of the population that wants to rid themselves of this heavy theological boot on their necks is going to look into the future together, collectively. I mean, after all, this is a society which is very pro West. I mean, after the. The people of Israel, the Iranian people are probably the second most pro Western society in all the Middle East. So there's great potential there. We just have to see ourselves through this very difficult period of war. And it is undoubtedly difficult anytime to conduct war, but sometimes it's necessary to defeat evil, and this is one of those cases. We have to move this regime out of the Middle east to stop threatening regional security and exporting of terror.
- [15:22]
B
Ambassador Leiter, in our remaining moment, there are reports that Iranian Kurdish forces based in Iraq are mobilizing armed units and prepared to enter Iran. There are separately reports that the CIA is arming them actively. Would you support their involvement? And would Israel rule out its own boots on the ground?
- [15:46]
D
Again, I think the boots on the ground are really the boots of the Iranian people, these minorities that have had boots on their necks the whole time since the Ayatollah came to power in 1979. Again, it's the Iranian people. The Kurds are one of the main minorities in Iran. Of course, there are Azeris, there are Belushis, there are many others. If they come together and pick up their arms and use their boots to march on Tehran, they are going to be part of this march into the future which will see a new Iran and a new Middle East.
- [16:20]
B
Yeah. Ambassador, I appreciate your time very much. Michael Leiter, Israel's ambassador to the U.S. live on Bloomberg TV and radio. We thank you. More breaking news coming out of Washington, and we've had quite a number of headlines today. The Wall Street Journal is now reporting that President Trump is preparing to fire Christy Noem, the Secretary of Homeland Security, who was beaten up quite a bit from members of both sides of the aisle in two days of testimony on Capitol Hill and following her management of ICE that included two fatal shootings in Minneapolis during those raids. Christine Ohm may be on the way out. The White House and Department of Homeland Security did not respond to request to comment for this story. The President reportedly set to fire Christine Ohm. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this
- [17:07]
F
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- [18:04]
A
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa. Play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [18:23]
B
Among the other stories that we are talking about is a breaker here and a Wall Street Journal headline that just went up, Trump Preparing to Fire Christine Ohm. This is not the first time we've heard this, but in this case, advisers familiar with his thinking are making it clear. The president has been asking aides and congressional Republicans, which we've seen in other reports as well, for names of potential replacements. Tip sheets this morning talked about a president calling Republican leaders on Capitol Hill to see if they thought she should be fired and what the confirmation process for her replacement might include. Knowing that this has not been a good week for Kristi Noem. The secretary sat for two days of testimony, one day before the Senate, another before the House, and as she found, even some Republicans were very distressed about her leadership of the Department of Homeland Security, including Republican Thom Tillis of North Carolina.
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G
Listen, what we've seen is a disaster under your leadership, Ms. Noem. I'm giving you a performance evaluation here. I'm not looking for a response. And I'm saying, Ms. Noem, that time after time after time, I've been disappointed. I believe the president recognized that you weren't getting it done in Minneapolis. The fact that you can't admit to a mistake, which looks like under investigation, is going to that Ms. Good. And Mr. Petty probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don't protect them by not looking after the facts. We expect exceptional leadership, and you've demonstrated anything but that. If I don't get an answer to these questions, if I don't get an answer that you've had a month to respond to, and the remaining ones as of today, I'll be informing leadership that I'm putting a hold on any en bloc nominations until I get a response,
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B
reminding all of us we don't want to be yelled at by Thom Tillis. But it wasn't just Tillis. He's, of course, retiring and is in a class of his own opposing the president on a number of issues. But John Kennedy, the Republican from Louisiana, calling out the secretary as well for the more than $200 million ad campaign that she said President Trump approved that is still running on television sets around the country. Let's assemble our political panel for their take on what appears to be an imminent firing. Bl Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis, our Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capitol, and Adam Hodge, managing partner at Bully Pulpit International, our Democratic strategist. Adam, you were a spokesperson for the National Security Council in the last administration. You understand the messaging that is required for a job of that sensitivity. And of course, for a secretary to be sitting before members of Congress like she did this week, that was said to be the final straw. Do you think she's as good as gone?
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H
I mean, she never should have been hired in the first place. Let's just be clear. And she's done a pretty abject job as secretary of Homeland Security ever since. And it does not just rest on the pretty terrible immigration crackdowns that have obviously, as you said, left two Americans dead and countless others injured. It has stained America's reputation around the world. And I think that the fact that she was so unprepared for the hearings and that you've seen that damn break of Republicans in the Senate clearly coming after one of the president's own nominees, it just is another distraction, another bit of chaos from the administration when they can ill afford to have any bit of that type of bad news circulating.
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B
All right. Bloomberg's got the story now. Rick. Trump leaning toward removing noma's homeland security chief follows contentious congressional hearings. I am acutely aware, Rick, of how many elected officials and members of the military top brass you have helped prepare for congressional hearings. Murder boards, I think some folks call them. Was this the final straw, in your opinion? Would she be fired with what, without what took place this week?
- [22:27]
I
Yeah, I think that there was a trend toward her needing to go. Obviously, the point that Senator Tillis pointed out in the hearing that the mess in Minneapolis had to be taken away from her and given to Tom Holman at the White House was, I think, the last straw. And at that point in time, you saw people within the administration willing to sort of stick their neck out more. And then of course, this cavalcade of criticism at the hearing. And as you point out, I think one of the more influential people in the Senate is Senator Kennedy and he took her face off. The reality is she made the mistake of throwing Trump under the bus on what was clearly a flattering ad campaign to put her out in front of the American people and given on a no bid contract to friends of hers, that maybe was the last straw that broke the camel's back. But look, I'm not going to deny it. It's been a one criticism after another from Republicans and Democrats on the Hill. People in the administration are frustrated that they haven't been able to get things done. And we do this all under the guise of her agency is shut down because the government funding. And so I think maybe there's a deal in there where we can get this agency back working and find an acceptable replacement for her that could actually get confirmation. But I wouldn't take bets on any of that.
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B
Well, you know, Adam, leave it to Rick Davis to remind us of the news. The department is closed. We're still in a partial government shutdown that no one is talking about, largely because ICE is funded and the other agencies haven't started missing paychecks yet. But it was suggested by a number of folks in this studio, Adam, and you've probably been part of these programs, that that that might be the trigger for a deal to reopen it, that removing Kristi Noem in concert with Democrats might bring them to a vote. Now, knowing that Homeland Security has taken on a different level of urgency since the strikes against Iran, could this precipitate the reopening of dhs?
- [24:43]
H
I'm highly skeptical of that, Joe. And look, in talking to some of the leadership on the House side, there's just no political appetite and political will for Democrats to reopen this agency without the fundamental reforms that are still needed. Now, just because the president took us into an ill advised illegal war that is making us less safe doesn't mean that you then empower the agency that is in charge of protecting us against threats here at home from failing to do their job if they're not adequately doing the job today. The reforms that are on the table are simple. There are reforms that the Republicans should be able to agree to, things like wearing body cameras, no masks on agents, using a warrant to actually enforce immigration as stipulated in the Constitution. Those are simple reforms that should be able to be put in place. And the White House, quite frankly, given the risk that they've increased on the American people with this war in Iran, should come to the table, accept those reforms, reopen the agency and then keep America safe. That should be the way that this thing is resolved.
- [25:49]
B
We should note that no final decision has been made here. And our reporters Jeff Mason and Miles Miller, sharing the byline, make that point. Trump frequently changes his mind on personnel matters. So you get a, you get a leak like that out there. He finds out who put the news out and something else happens. But assuming this is real, Rick Davis, does Corey Lewandowski follow her out the door and is there a short list to replace her with Tom Holman be on that list?
- [26:19]
I
I don't know if Tom Holman is going to be on that list and I don't know if he could make it through a Senate confirmation considering how high profile he's been throughout the course of this year on deportations and other issues. The reality is Corey Lewandowski is only there because Krissi Noemes wants him there. So if she's gone, I would think he's gone. And that has been enough.
- [26:47]
B
All right, Rick, I think we're breaking up just a little bit. We'll reconnect with Rick Davis. Your thoughts on that, Adam, does such a list exist?
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H
Well, obviously I don't think anybody is going to get through with Democratic support in the Senate at this point. What I would love to see is someone with real gravitas and experience across the aisle enforcing our immigration. Yes, but also just with real a sense of public service and a way to actually help address the needs of the American people. Krissi Noem was a TV talking head. Yes, she was governor of South Dakota, but her whole thing since she's been in that, in that office has been doing TV ads. And so the Senate was right to call her out for It I think if the president is, you know, smart, he'll try to find someone who could competently run an agency that is not gunning American people down in the street.
- [27:44]
B
You know, they're throwing Mark Wayne Mullen's name around. I don't know if you heard about this punchbowl. Had that this morning and asked him. He said, that's something I just don't want to talk about right now. We'll discuss that later. Adam, doesn't that mean. Yes.
- [27:59]
H
I mean, that seems a little bit like the deal they struck in Montana where Steve Daines quit and they already had his replacement, you know, on the steps to file and replace him. I think, you know, Mark Mullen has been obviously a huge champion of the administration. I don't know that that changes the tone and tenor that we need in the immigration enforcement, that it would create a more safer, a more saner immigration policy that respects the rule of law, that respects the Constitution and keeps the American people safe. That's all we're asking for.
- [28:31]
B
We're back with Rick Davis in just a minute. Left here, Rick, is Mark Wayne Mullen a realistic suggestion in this case? Or maybe I'll, I'll just say it out loud. Somebody suggested this earlier and I'm not going to put their name on the air. What about Ken Paxton? If Donald Trump endorses John Corn, wouldn't that clean things up in Texas and take care of this real quick?
- [28:51]
I
First of all, I'm blaming the Department of Homeland Security for all my technology problems here today. Look, I think the reason you hear Mark Wayne Mullen being talked about is because there is a unwritten rule that if you've got a United States senator up for confirmation, they get passed. And so that may be one of the very few options that the president has that he knows can actually get confirmed.
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D
Confirmed.
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I
And I think it does change the narrative around Department of Homeland Security pretty well. Ken Paxton, I don't think there's any way that guy could get confirmed. I mean, he has such a middle policing function would just be, well, I guess in keeping with some of the other appointees that we've had in this administration. But I think that's a stretch to think even Republicans would vote for 10 PACs.
- [29:44]
B
I had asked Adam, Rick, if the removal of Kristi Noem might hasten the reopening of the department. Could this draw some Democrats to a yes vote, seeing her leave?
- [29:56]
I
Oh, I gotta believe that if John Thune knows that the president is going to relieve her of duty, he's Sitting in, you know, his counterpart's office saying, let's make a deal. We're going to take her out. And here are some other things we're willing to say yes to. Let's get this thing reopened. Because we are only one bad incident away from Iranian assault on our homeland. That it becomes a very big deal that the Department of Homeland Security is not open for business. Cybercom, you know, the Coast Guard, other policing agencies of America.
- [30:34]
B
Do you not share that view? Adam Hodge, We've had a number of Democrats mention to us that this is a different political environment now than it was say last Friday. That the strikes against Iran and the threat of domestic terrorism here changes the equation. Is that not being felt by Democrats on the Hill?
- [30:51]
H
I mean, Joe, we talked about this on Sunday. I agree that this war in Iran has made the American people less safe. I agree that there is a greater threat to the homeland from whether it's bad actors or, you know, homegrown terrorists being inspired by the war that we're seeing in Iran. That does not change the fundamental nature of what is needed to reform the Department of Homeland Security. And I just, from talking to Democrats on the Hill, I just hear zero appetite for without to reopen DHS without those fundamental reforms. And again, they're very simple. Following the Constitution warrants, no masks on the agents and using body cams. Those are three simple things that if the White House and Republicans are serious about protecting the American people, they should agree to reopen the agency, find a new leader that's badly needed and keep the American people safe. That's, that's not a huge lift.
- [31:45]
B
Well, we went into overtime with our great panel for a good reason and I thank you both for walking us through some breaking news here. Bloomberg Politics contributors Adam Hodge and Rick Davis stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [32:01]
F
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- [32:56]
A
For certain, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [33:17]
B
Another development here in this story that just keeps on moving and we have another redhead crossing the terminal. Now. If you were with us about three minutes ago, it's now reality. Mark Wayne Mullen to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security. There's a reason why his name was being floated. As the President of the United States takes to social media, I am pleased to announce that the highly respected United States Senator from the great state of Oklahoma, Mark Wayne Mullen, will become the U.S. secretary of Homeland Security, effective, he says, March 31, 2026. The current secretary. I am reading this for the first time as you hear me. Kristi Noem, who has served us well and has had numerous and spectacular results, especially on the border, will be moving to be special envoy. You got this. For the Shield of the Americas, our new security initiative in the Western Hemisphere. We are announcing on Saturday in Doral, Florida. It's not even announced yet. I thank Christy for her service at Homeland in quotation marks. So this is not a firing and there will be no confirmation process, presumably. There'd have to be, right? Kristi Noemi is being reassigned as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas. Mark Wayne Mullen will presumably then become acting Homeland Security Secretary. He doesn't use that word. On March 31, 2026. This is something that is just developing before our eyes. Is Emily available right now? The Vice president of the Defense and Security Department, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, csis, jumps in to help us with this story right now. Former director for Iran at the National Security Council, Emily Harding. Emily, thank you. I didn't think we'd be talking about this today. What do you make of this quick evolution, at least in terms of the headlines today, and specifically the choice.
- [35:12]
E
I mean, the president has been known to make the decision that he thinks is right in the moment. I do know Senator Mark Wade Mullen. He's a pleasure to deal with. I've briefed him many times. I think he'll do a great job.
- [35:24]
B
A great job. Will confirmation be an issue, or are we going to have an acting secretary for the foreseeable future?
- [35:32]
E
I mean, that's a difficult question to answer. I think that senators tend to be very kind to their own. He's got a lot of good relationships on the Hill, and I think that'll certainly play well for him.
- [35:43]
B
Well, it's really remarkable here to see a turn like this. And I wonder how concerned you have been with a DHS that has been closed now for the better part of a couple of weeks, even as the domestic terror threat increases.
- [35:58]
E
Yeah, I mean, I think it's an interesting question. The way that DHS is reworking itself is certainly a pivot moment in history. I particularly focus on cyber issues. So watching what's going on at cisa, where we're trying to sort of reset the way that we think about domestic cyber, has been difficult to watch. It's definitely a really important issue and that I hope that Senator Mullen has time to focus on it.
- [36:20]
B
Well, I'd love to hear from you about that a little bit more, Emily, as we break the news here. And now you have a redhead on the terminal, Mark Wayne Mullen, tapped by President Trump to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security. We understand that cyber activity, and I heard some of this in the crowdstrike conference call the other evening. Cyber activity from Iran has been increasing. How capable is Iran in this sphere?
- [36:44]
E
They really are quite capable. As we look at sort of our adversaries across the planet in the cyber domain, you definitely put Russia, China at the very top. China has been a rising power, but Iran is right there. We've seen them get increasingly aggressive with their cyber activity. They seem to be less constrained than others, perhaps in the way that they think about attacks on civilian infrastructure. They went after our elections once upon a time. They've also gone after domestic infrastructure in the US and water infrastructure, and that's quite concerning so far. We're only sort of starting to see indications that cyber's going to be a factor in the current war. But I would expect for them to engage in that domain extensively at some point.
- [37:24]
B
Well, you know, the president spoke a bit, and not a lot by design, about the extent to which we used cyber in Venezuela. By knocking out the lights and helping to advantage our military, is the United States employing those same technologies in Iran?
- [37:41]
E
It does seem that way that there's this layered effect that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs has talked about, Dan Cain, where you have joint operations between Space Force, cybercom and then various branches of our military sort of all operating in concert to create total superiority over Iranian air defenses and over the Iranian military in general. And if you can disrupt the command and control within a country like Iran, it can be very difficult for them to, in effect, fight back against an overpowering military force. So we are seeing that cyber warfare can make a big difference, especially in sort of setting the terms and conditions for a fight.
- [38:21]
B
You know, both governments, Washington and Tehran, are promising a more intense phase in the bombing and missile war that we're witnessing here. Will there be a more intense phase when it comes to cyber? Is. Does such a thing exist?
- [38:37]
E
So it's hard to say at this point. I don't want to second guess what the Pentagon is going to do next, but really what we've seen cyber be effective at is two pieces. Number one is, like I said, this disrupting of command and control. And number two was really the psychological warfare. So so far in this fight, we have seen that disruption piece. We saw Internet connectivity in Iran drop off dramatically the morning that the bombing started. There's still sort of an open question on how much of that was the U.S. israel trying to disrupt communications, and how much of it might have been Iran, in part, shutting down their own capability so that protesters and others couldn't coordinate inside Iran. And then the other piece is this psychological piece. So we've seen Israel, in particular, engage in psychological attacks where they do things like they hacked, apparently, a religious calendar app. It's Ramadan right now. So people use their calendar apps to do things like see when the prayer times are, see when they can break their fast at the end of the day. And messages appeared on one of these apps that said things like, it's a time for reckoning. Abandon your regime. Anyone who speaks out against the regime will be given amnesty. And this is really a way to try to undermine the power base of the Iranian regime. We've kind of gotten past those first two phases. There might be a time close to the end of the bombing campaign where you see the psychological aspect reappear and perhaps trying to do things like punch some holes in Iran's VPN firewall so that the Iranian opposition can, in fact, talk to each other about coordination, about pushing back on whatever remnant of the regime is left over.
- [40:08]
B
Wow, Fascinating. Emily, what do you make of the talk today about the next regime? President Trump, in an interview with Axio, says he must play a role in choosing the next leader of Iran. Is this a plausible scenario? How would that work?
- [40:24]
E
The Iranian people have had experience with foreign leaders trying to pick their leadership before. It's never gone, especially from this country. Well, so it does seem like maybe this is Donald Trump attempting to impose his will upon a population that maybe doesn't want it. That said, I think that what Trump is thinking about is what happened in Venezuela, where you had what has been so far a very smooth transition of power from Maduro to the remaining part of the regime there. And I think what at some point, what the US Is going to want is a stabilization of the situation. And one way to do that is to have leadership in place that maybe isn't a total break from the previous regime, but could, in fact, keep the country in a more stable and forward moving place and might be willing to do things like negotiate about the future of the nuclear program and the future of the missile program. But the Iranian people are going to be very, I think, insistent upon trying to pick that person themselves.
- [41:19]
B
We just got a pretty remarkable piece of news in the the president tapping Senator Mark Wayne Mullen to be the next secretary of Homeland Security, which is something that we're going to be covering throughout the day. And if you're just joining us, this just emerged in the last couple of moments, a redhead on the terminal as the president reassigns Secretary Kristi Noem to an entirely different job and an organization and a new effort that's going to be announced this weekend, something that we've been talking to Emily about as well. And we're going to have another update coming up from the White House. Just lastly, Emily, sometimes the most simple questions draw the most interesting answers. We've talked so much about the decentralized nature of the Iranian regime. Who is running Iran now?
- [42:08]
E
Hmm. So one of the things you really need to understand about Iran is that it is a full fledged bureaucracy of a government. They have a succession plan in place for nearly every position. Most people who are in power inside Iran have really bought into the idea of the regime. That means that it's not a decapitation strike like you might have seen in Venezuela or elsewhere. There's going to be many, many layers down of people who are invested in a robust and fairly healthy bureaucracy. So in every position, I mean, even though the Israelis are saying they're going very deep inside the hierarchy of each organization, you're going to have people step up and sort of understand enough that they can keep the country going, I think it's pretty much anybody's guess at what point that starts to teeter and fracture from the inside side. And the government just can't continue to function but you can guarantee that internal security is going to be their number one goal and their top priority.
- [43:01]
B
Emily, I'm really glad you could join us and I appreciate your insights. Emily Harding from csis, the center for Strategic and International Studies, where she is vice president of the Defense and Security Department, a great voice of experience that we try to bring you every day here on Bloomberg TV and Radio. The Thursday edition of Balance the Power brings a lot of breaking news, and this is the latest one. President Trump, I am pleased to announce the highly respected United States senator from the great state of Oklahoma, Mark Wayne Mullen, he writes, will become the United States secretary of Homeland Security at the end of this month, March 31st. Bloomberg's Jeff Mason is back with us from the North Lawn of the White House as he carries half of the byline on this story. Jeff, congrats on getting the scoop here. We have a lot of questions about how all this is going to work with the current secretary. Again, Kristi Noem, who the president says has served us well, will be moving to a new role as special envoy for the Shield of the Americas. If you've not heard of this, that's because the president says the new security initiative in the Western Hemisphere will be announced on Saturday in Doral, Florida, and presumably Kristi Noem will be at his side. This follows a couple of days of very difficult testimony for Kristi Noem on Capitol Hill, once before the Senate and again before the House, in which, as we determined earlier this hour and reminded you, there were a number of Republican lawmakers who grilled Noem, including Tom Tillis, including Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana, which apparently was the breaking point for President Trump in this conversation. Here's a taste of what the secretary heard from Senator Tillis.
- [44:44]
G
What we've seen is a disaster under your leadership. Ms. Noem, I'm giving you a performance evaluation here. I'm not looking for a response. And I'm saying, Ms. Noem, that time after time after time, I've been disappointed. I believe the president recognized that you weren't getting it done in Minneapolis. The fact that you can't admit to a mistake which looks like under investigation is going to prove that Ms. Good. And Mr. Petty probably should not have been shot in the face and in the back. Law enforcement needs to learn from that. You don't protect them by not looking after the facts. We expect exceptional leadership, and you've demonstrated anything but that. If I don't get an answer to these questions, if I don't get an answer that you've had a month to respond to and the remaining ones as of today, I'll be informing leadership that I'm putting a hold on any en bloc nominations until I get a response.
- [45:39]
B
That will not be necessary. As it turns out, the president writing that Noem will move to be special envoy for the Shield of the Americas. Jeff Mason is with us live from the White House. Jeff, we only have a minute. Congrats on this scoop. I'm just curious, will Mullen be an acting secretary?
- [45:58]
C
Well, it's a good question. He the president said that he would be taking over on the 31st, but anyone who's going to be part of the Cabinet has to be confirmed. So one could conclude that the fact that he put a date on that as to when he's taking over means that it will be enacting DHS secretary because there wouldn't be time, I don't think, to get him confirmed before then.
- [46:19]
B
You ever heard of this new security initiative, the Shield of the Americas?
- [46:25]
C
It was news to me, Joe. Yeah, I think that, I think the key headline here is he's fired someone. And that hasn't happened that often during this first term.
- [46:35]
B
This is the first one, right? Jeff Mason got the first firing. I mean, I guess if you don't include Michael Waltz, that was another reassignment. Kristi Noem is out at dhf. Dhs. Jeff Mason, Easy for me to say with the scoop and I thank you, Jeff, for bringing that to us here live on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com
- [47:10]
A
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