Joe (3:13)

Interesting. Kelly, it's the president's on his way down to the villages, of course, in Florida, the Marine One helicopter just took off over Tyler a second ago. And the president just boarding Air Force One. Tyler, the headline at the BBC, pickleball. And Trump visits world's largest retirement community known as the Disney without the roller coasters. This is a friendly crowd for Donald Trump, right? We remember the boat parades during the campaign and so forth. Tyler, why is he going to the villages? What's the message today?

Kelly (3:45)

Well, Joe, this is a message around affordability. We're expecting President Trump to tout the new tax cuts under the one big beautiful bill and also to talk about accessibility improvements at the Social Security administration. But you're right, this is going to be a friendly crowd for he has repeatedly won in this area in the elections. But the broader backdrop here, of course, is that Florida is often considered to be a battleground political state as we head in to the midterm elections. He did make a brief remark there applauding the Governor of Ron DeSantis, since we know that there is going to be that tight gubernatorial race in the state. But of course, this comes on the heels and the backdrop that American consumers right now are dealing with those higher gas prices. And that is going to be a liability for Republicans as we get closer to November. Now, this administration, administration has repeatedly maintain that the disruption is going to be in the short term. You heard President Trump make that case to the reporters just there. But it is raising some questions about what more the administration can do in the meantime to help to lower gas prices. And Joe and Kelly, the NEC director, Kevin Hassett was on Bloomberg Television just yesterday, and he didn't really outline that the administration is looking at anything new. He seemed to rule out the idea of an export ban and instead touted actions that the administration has already taken, such as extending that waiver for the Jones act, working to improve those regulations to get higher content ethanol gasoline on the market in time for the summer driving season.

Joe (5:14)

Well, and Tyler, when we think about higher gas prices, we also could be facing down here in the US higher prices of some of the vehicles that gas is going into. At least if the president stays true to what he's saying today, he's going to raise the tariff on European made cars to 25%.

Kelly (5:29)

So this is definitely a move of escalation by the White House, Kelly, because as you well know, the agreement that had been reached between the US and the EU when it came came to the trade deal was that that more preferential 15% tariff rate that was going towards most EU imports is instead what was supposed to also filter down to autos. That was a really critical part of that trade agreement. You remember there was an investment pledge in order for them to secure that lower rate for those sector specific tariffs. Now it's not necessarily surprising because we knew that tensions had been brewing between the US and the EU when it came to implementation on the deal, not necessarily related to the auto tariff, but related to metal tariffs. After the administration had moved to expand the list that that 50% metal tariff would extend to. Now there's been a lot of back and forth. We don't need to get into the wonkiness of it, but at the end of the day, it doesn't appear that the two sides are too happy with the agreement that ended up being reached. In fact, Bloomberg News reported earlier this week that some of the EU's biggest economies, including Germany and France, were starting to really make their concerns known when it came to that deal. Regarding the metal tariffs, we can say that we' from at least one EU Parliament member who said earlier within the last hour that President Trump's behavior is, quote, unacceptable.

Joe (6:49)

Tyler, thank you so much. Data Mow the lawn it seems. At the White House, Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall with the latest on a number of stories here.

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Joe (8:16)

Haley It's a difficult moment because it's it's hard to tell what is bluster from both sides in this case. And the proposal that we have from Iran today doesn't seem to have changed anything. President Trump, though, says he is still hoping to strike a deal at the same time. This is the 1st of May. Happy May Day. At 60 days since he notified Congress, which is amazing that we're in the month of May. But there are questions about whether we're going to enter a whole debate around the constitutionality of the War Powers Act. Seems like the White House would like us to.

Joe (8:46)

Yeah, that certainly seems to be the messaging as President Trump argues that the War Powers act, which has been law for what, more than 50 years back to Vietnam, unconstitutional that you had the Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying even if it is constitutional, the 60 day clock shouldn't have been running so long as the cease fire has been in place, as it has been for weeks now. All that said, Congress is on the May recess as it is the month of May now. They won't be back until May 11th to even consider whether or not they want to flex some congressional authority muscle over war powers right in the first place. So where that leaves us, I'm not

Joe (9:20)

quite sure this is going to be a grand debate. I'm sure remembering that the president can get an additional 30 days to bring you to 90, at which point there would need to be an authorization for the use of military force.

Joe (9:29)

So let's get into this now with our political panel. Rosemary Becky is with us, partner at Brownstein, Hyatt, Farber and Shrek, and Republican strategist alongside Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shan Zaino, our Democratic analyst and Democracy Visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Welcome to you both. Rosemary. When we consider the questions around the legality or the reading of the law in the War Powers act, whether it's 60 days or 90 days, knowing that additional 30 days is supposed to be requested specifically. At least it could be read as specifically for the withdrawing of troops from a conflict zone. Do you expect that today is a real marker for a Republican controlled Congress who to this point has been unwilling to check the president when it comes to this conflict in particular?

Rosemary Becky (10:17)

I don't think today is a real marker for the Republicans. I think that this debate regarding the war powers is going to continue. And, and just as you pointed out, Congress is out until May 11th. And so when they return, there will certainly be some rhetoric and discussion around it. But I don't think that Republicans are looking to challenge the president on this at this moment.

Joe (10:50)

You wonder if that changes in another 30 days. Jeannie, what do Democrats do with this? They're clearly rejecting this argument.

Jeannie Shan Zaino (10:59)

Yeah, absolutely. And I also wonder, Joe, does it change after these members go home as Rosemary was just talking about? They are heading home. They come back on May 11th and what are they going to hear when they go home? Because of course, what the polls are telling us is that the war is widely unpopular. Fewer than 2 in 10Americans think the action has been successful. And yet we are paying for it. We're paying for it at the gas pump, we're paying for it with our groceries. And so for these members, I just got to imagine they want to be on the campaign trail talking about affordability. The president is out today, wants to talk about this issue involving Social Security. They want to talk about no tax on tips. And yet any savings people are feeling from those initiatives, they're putting back into their gas pump, they're putting back into the grocery store. And so you wonder, is there going to be pressure? Just yesterday or the day before, we saw Susan Collins under pressure in Maine. She reversed course on the war. And so I'm curious, what is this time away in this time at home do to these members as they hear from constituents who are still asking basic questions like why are we there, what is the point and when are we going to be done?

Joe (12:17)

Well, and Susan Collins might be a character you would expect to or one of the more likely characters to break with this administration, Rosemary. But you're starting to see others as well. Todd Young of Indiana, for example, says he would expect to need an authorization for use of continued military force if the president were to choose to go back to kinetic action. And I wonder if you think the chorus could get louder even if it doesn't become an outright majority of Republicans who disagree. If you would be surprised to see more names added to that list.

Rosemary Becky (12:45)

I don't think I would be surprised to see more names added to that list. I wholeheartedly agree with Jenny that when they go home here for this work period, they're going to hear a lot of discussion around, of course, affordability and this is a factor in all of that. Right. I mean, while, you know, Americans got on average an extra $1,000 in their tax refund, they're spending a lot of that money on gas. And the question becomes how much longer does that linger? I mean, there are a lot of American families out there that are struggling, struggling with energy costs, health care costs. And so, you know, they're, they're going to hear all that when they're at home. And so in all likelihood, you know, there's going to be extra pressure to, to speak up about it and, and demand, you know, some more action and stuff. Again, I think that's also why the White House is working as fast as they can and as quickly as they can to kind of try to resolve this. But you know, as several of your guests has pointed out today, it'll take time, right? Like even if we have some kind of cease fire settlement in the coming days, it's going to be a matter of time before, you know, you start to truly see gas prices come down and that impact to the economy overall.

Joe (14:08)

Rosemary reminds us May 11th is when lawmakers will be back in town in Jeannie, they're going to have to deal with a lot more than this. We should note a lot got done before everyone left yesterday. Some things that we were told could never happen. FISA section 702 reauthorizes for 45 days. DHS reopened after a 75 day. That's a record partial shutdown. They even passed the farm bill in the House, realizing that may not take place in the Senate. But there are questions, Jeannie, about how Speaker Johnson pulled this off at the last minute and what last minute deals were struck that might impact future debates or even need to be undone. In the case of the farm bill, he had to renege on an agreement with a group of Republicans from the Midwest that tied year round sales of an ethanol fuel blend, E15 to the bill. They're going to have to undo that now. What else are we going to learn about this? Brings us back to the old Kevin McCarthy days. What did you promise and when?

Jeannie Shan Zaino (15:08)

Jeannie yeah, just love to have an ear on what's happening in this room as the vote is open on the floor with Mike Johnson for hours and he's moving these people in back and forth from his office. And to your point, Joe, what promises and what deals are being struck, we will likely learn a lot more when we see these bills in writing. You know, give him credit. He did push this through. I mean, we were looking at this as an impossible east. I was a really tough week. Now, I would go back and say we also know that there was another person driving this forward and that was the president. The White House was really did get involved here to get these things over the line. But some of this, of course, is just kicking the can. You know, you look at what deals were struck with the farm bill, you look at Pfizer. This has been going on for years over the warrant requirements. So all of those things have yet to be worked out. And when they come back, we are that much closer to primary voting and voting in the midterm election, which of course usually brings everything in D.C. to a halt and makes makes passing anything that much more difficult. And of course, they also want to do reconciliation two and I think three in the midst of all of this, which is, you know, I'm hard pressed

Joe (16:23)

to imagine, yeah, 2.0 and then 3.0 does seem to be the plan that at least some conservatives are pushing for. But as we think ahead, look back on the week that was thinking ahead on what's to come as we get closer to the midterms. Here is how the speaker himself, Mike Johnson, characterized things yesterday.

IBM Executive (16:41)

Sometimes the process around here is cumbersome. That's the way this works. But in spite of our razor thin, historically small majority, House Republicans continue to deliver for the American people. We will continue to do that for the remainder of the year. And that is a large reason why we are going to win the midterms so that the grownups can stay in charge here.

Joe (17:00)

He's speaking of House Republicans specifically, Rosa Mary, but it's also a Senate Republican Republican majority. And the two majorities, or at least the leadership of them, don't seem like they're necessarily in lockstep here. What is your read on the reported kind of breakdown in relations between Majority Leader John Thune in the Senate and the speaker of the House?

Rosemary Becky (17:21)

So the negotiations between the House and Senate have always historically been, you know, tough conversations and stuff. And I do think, you know, for the most part that relationship has worked well, but it has been tough. And right now it's a very strained relationships between the two Houses. And so, you know, again, there's a lot of work to be done when they get back. A lot of things, you know, we've kicked the can a little bit here on some things. We've got a reconciliation 2.0 that absolutely needs to get over the goal line. Whether or not we get to A reconciliation through 3.0 is another issue. But you've got farm bill, you've got surface transportation, you've got so many other things that need to get done and show that, you know, both houses and both leaders are going to have to come back together and kind of iron out their differences and and move the process forward.

Joe (18:21)

Jeannie, we've only got about a minute left. I'm going to come out of left field for you on this one because it's what no one is talking about. And that's the nation's debt. Did you see this? The US national debt now exceeds 100% of gross national product. This was said to be unthinkable, but as of March 31, the country's publicly held debt genie was over $31 trillion, 100.2%. If Democrats win the House and the Senate potentially, will they make debt and deficits a priority, or is this the kind of thing that only the minority finds religion in?

Jeannie Shan Zaino (19:02)

Well, I certainly hope they do. I don't think we've seen that yet, unfortunately, in what we've heard on the campaign trail. But to your point, Joe, this should be the headline for all Americans. This is a marker that is unsustainable and to your words, unthinkable at some point. And it should be front and center, not just for Democrats, but Republicans and all Americans. And as opposed to that, out of both parties, it's a pox of both their houses. They have just talked about continued spending and we can't keep this up. That's why the 1.4 trillion on the military is unthinkable in my mind.

Joe (19:41)

Jeannie Shanzano, Rosemary Becky, thank you for a great panel.

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Joe (21:15)

This isn't where we thought we'd be starting with the Congressman, but of course Mike Caridopoulos represents Florida's 8th congressional district, and that's right next door to where Spirit Airlines is based. Congressman, it's great to have you back on Bloomberg TV and Radio. Happy Friday. And I'm just wondering if you have thoughts on this. I know it's not right in your district, but just south of where you are, just south of Fort Lauderdale, is the home base of Spirit Airlines and I suspect the administration has been in touch with the delegation. When it comes to jobs in your part of the state, is this a deal that could still be struck?

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (21:47)

Well, it's only if it's a good deal for the taxpayer. I mean, this is, I believe in the free market we're all optimistic. You can keep more of those low cost carriers in place, but we need to look at the numbers because in the end if we bail out, we are actually helping, not always helping people in the long run. And so there are a lot of competitive forces out there, as your previous guest mentioned before. So if it works for the taxpayer, that's a good thing. But if it's something that is not, I think this is the reality of of the free market.

Joe (22:18)

Well, I guess we'll have to see what the President is ready to announce in the next day or two on this particular issue, Congressman, he didn't seem as excited about the prospect or optimistic about the prospect that he'd have something to announce when it comes to a deal with Iran. When he spoke to reporters earlier, he suggested he's not sure that negotiations will ever get there. He said Iran has proposed things that he simply can't agree to. What is your degree of optimism? Optimism about a potential diplomatic path forward or would you be surprised if the President made the decision to return to kinetic military action? And if he does so, would that take a vote from you and your colleagues?

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (22:54)

Well, the President is going to make the right call for the American public. He has given up a lot to be our President and he strongly believes that Iran is a long term threat to not just the Middle east but the entire world. World as they evidence by their ability to fire missiles down multiple thousands of miles. And remember, every president, Democrat and Republican alike have recognized the threat of Iran. We have them on their heels at this point. If the Iranians continue to be not only bombastic but they kill their own citizens, I think that you might see a return to kinetic activities because we need to eliminate this threat once and for all. We're all paying for at the gas pumps right now but we want to make sure that the lives are no longer lost because remember since 1979 thousands of Americans have lost their lives and hopefully this will be our last engagement with this corrupt evil regime.

Joe (23:44)

Yeah. $4.39 nationally today. Looks like you're just below that mark in Florida, Congressman. You're doing better. $4.28 on average in the state of Florida. But just to put a finer point on, President said today before he got on the plane to go down to your neck of the woods, going to be in the villages in just a short while talking about some of the initiatives that he has pursued for retirees. He says that the War Powers act is unconstitutional. Do you agree?

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (24:15)

Well, every president says that. Since 1973 the President the prerogative has always been the War of Powers act is unconstitutional.

Public Ad Narrator (24:23)

I don't know.

Joe (24:23)

I remember George W. Bush going to Congress to make the case for an aumf. Right.

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (24:28)

So it's one of the realities of it all. But as you know, the Congress will have a say and they are of course working close with the administration. But most common sense people recognize that this problem in Iran is a real one. Fortunately there's not been a huge death toll but 13 is still too much. But we are challenged by a situation where you're dealing with mass. Again, I can't stress this enough. Their own citizens are being killed by their government to the tune of 30,000 if not more. And so you're dealing with an evil regime here and we're trying to deal with people who are absolutely irrational. And so we're going to try to bring this in for a landing. But if we need to continue the forces we're going to need to do so, and the only way I would be okay with giving them any resources is if they turn over the nuclear. Nuclear materials that they've accumulated through the years.

Joe (25:18)

Well, and Iran right now maintains that that's something they aren't willing to do just to continue the conversation around the War Powers act for a moment longer, whether or not it's constitutional. When you're reading the law, Congressman, if you are assuming that indeed that law, which has been in place for decades now, is constitutional, and we have reached the 60 day mark since the President notified you and your colleagues that he was launching these combat operations. Is the clock still ticking in your mind? The Defense Secretary Pete Hexa suggested because we're in a ceasefire. It's not, but last I checked, we are still actively maintaining a US Naval blockade with military assets and military personnel involved.

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (25:58)

Well, as you've seen already, there's been a few different votes on the war situation in Iran. We are conducting, I think, a thoughtful way in which to conduct a war in Lord and save American lives and to reduce the threat in the region, let alone the world. Again, I've given the President a lot of leeway because again, every President before him recognized the threat but chose different paths. If you remember, not too long ago, President Obama attempted to give the Iranians a lot of money and a lot of opportunity to get into the world economy and instead they use these dollars to continue their terrorist activities. And so President Trump has said enough is enough. At this point, I'm giving him the benefit of doubt. Should the speaker bring this up for a vote? I would gladly vote one way or the other, depending on the facts. But it's something where I think I support the effort in Iran because in the long term we think it'll be beneficial for not just the region, but also the United States. And let's also not forget that even though we are struggling with higher gas prices, there's some relativity here. If you look at the Obama or Biden years during their presidency, adjusted for inflation Today, they'd be 100 a barrel during parts of their presidency. So nothing new there. The second part of that is we're bringing on more oil here in the United States for being more self sufficient. It's too bad we don't have the Keystone pipeline, of course, that Joe Biden killed. And it's also a fact that we have of course going to have new oil coming out of Venezuela, which will also help offset some of the higher prices we're all struggling with. But this is something I'd love to end quickly. But good policy is good politics, meaning the right thing to do here is to eliminate the threat from Iran, take away their nuclear capability because we recognize unfortunately now they have the missile case capability to shoot a rocket in potentially a nuclear weapon over 2,000 miles.

Joe (27:45)

Yeah, I haven't heard the keystone invoked in a minute. Congressman, I want to ask you, since right out that window behind you is the Space coast, about the President, President's plans for NASA. And this is always important to our audience. We cover every launch here at Bloomberg. As you well know, we saw the budget proposal and I realize this is the skinny proposal from the White House, but It shows a 23% cut to NASA. The president has pledged his support to the Artemis program and to NASA as a whole. He's taking credit for helping to rejuvenate the agency. Is that a real proposal? Will that become law or is this up for debate?

Congressman Mike Caridopoulos (28:19)

Well, I would just say this. First of all, the President loves space. He of course created the Space Force. He's created a really opportunity for my community in the Space coast and he's put Jared Isaac in there who really loves the country, given up so much to really rejuvenate NASA. And we saw this amazing, of course, 10 day mission around the moon for the first time since 1972 in a successful splashdown in the Pacific. These are heady days for us on the Space Coast. So we're excited about that. Last year was much the same as far as budget proposals, but as you know, when we brought it in for a landing, not only did we fully fund NASA, but we put almost 10 billion additional dollars in to help make sure we win this space race. And I think under the leadership of Jared Isaacman at NASA and of course Ted Cruz here and Dr. Babin, who's our house leader on space, we're going to win this space race and we're going to put the resources necessary. And when you actually look at spaceflight operations, that's actually the spending is going up. Some of the science capabilities we're going to look more closely at and make sure we get the most bang for the buck.

Joe (29:26)

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime eastern@bloomberg.com

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