Joe Matthew (4:41)

You know, I think it is a reflection of the fact that this administration, the president in particular, they have prized fealty to the president. Rose versus expertise. And of course, what we had here was the appointment of somebody to this office and Lindsey Halligan who didn't have the experience, a smart woman, a woman very capable, but hadn't had this experience before a grand jury and the number of missteps that by all accounts occurred in that grand jury. I don't think this is a surprise. But again, I think it's reflective of a larger problem with this Trump White House, which is that when you are going to focus on somebody who is abiding by and most concerned of appealing to this president versus somebody who has expertise in their position, this is what you come to get. And so I don't think it's a surprise. Statute of limitations has run out. And I think James Comey has got to be celebrating very big after this. And of course, my own state attorney general, Letitia James.

Host/Interviewer (5:46)

Wow. Lonnie Chen, welcome back. It's great to have you. You know the old line that you can indict a ham sandwich? That's apparently not the case.

Lonnie Chen (5:57)

Well, I mean, you can indict a ham sandwich. Whether that ham sandwich is guilty of poor taste is a different question. I mean, look, this is, I don't know that a whole lot of people are shocked by the outcome. I mean, I think the Comey and James cases probably were a little different substantively. You know, the James case arguably had a little bit more than the Comey case did. But I don't know that anybody's surprised by the outcome here. And frankly, I think in the long run, the big question is, does this chasten the Trump White House? Does this chase in the president in how he approaches these questions? And my guess is gonna be absolutely not. I think the president's gonna continue to be aggressive both in his policy agenda as well as his personal agenda. So, you know, it's one of those things, again, outcome not surprising. The bigger question I think we ought to be thinking about is what the impact will be politically and otherwise on the White House.

Host/Interviewer (6:55)

Well, it's really remarkable here, Jeannie, what happens to Lindsey Halligan after getting roped up in all of this? Is her job here done or does she come back around with some new role or new indictment?

Joe Matthew (7:10)

You know, I suspect she may keep on in the Trump circles, but I think this speaks volume to what a misstep, this appointment or attempt to make an appointment like this, when all of the experts in the department said that this was a non starter, particularly the case against Comey. And I think if anybody has any sort of fancy idea that Donald Trump is going to be chasten at all, the answer is no. I mean, just look at how they are going out against Senator Mark Kelly in the last few minutes, accusing him of misconduct. And this is the Trump Pentagon. So, you know, I think the reality remains for Donald Trump. If you cross him, he is going to take every step he can to hit back against you. And so I think he will continue. But anybody else would be chastened by the fact as to how this has come out. And this is a big win for James Comey, somebody who was not liked on the by the Democrats or Republicans, as we all remember, and who has come out of this. And I think you know, he owes a lot to his attorneys. He had some of the best in the business.

Host/Interviewer (8:20)

Well, I'll tell you what, what does this mean for James Comey? Lonnie, they are two different cases and two different people here. He's been writing books. What does this do to his story and his ability to operate in Washington?

Lonnie Chen (8:38)

I mean, I, you know, look, I think he has. Has made a brand for himself in a lot of ways, and I think that that will continue. And, you know, this is, this is one of those things where it will test the axiom that all there's no such thing as bad news, that the only thing that really we care about in this political environment now is exposure and more news. And, you know, I think Comey will be testing that theory going forward, but I think he's largely got the same audience he's got, and those folks are gonna probably find him more appealing now that he's been exonerated in some ways. So, you know, we'll see where it goes.

Host/Interviewer (9:21)

All right. Before we learned of this, if you were with us, we were talking about China because we just got the closest thing we'll get to a readout. And that is a truth social post from President Trump. He talked to President Xi this morning, Jeannie, and it looks like Donald Trump's going to be heading to China in April. He reciprocated the invitation with one to Xi for a full state visit in the US later in the year. He talks about a good and very important deal for our great farmers, a successful meeting in South Korea. Now we set our sights on the big picture. What's that big picture?

Joe Matthew (10:00)

I think this is a critically important development, particularly for the president now given how he is being viewed in terms of the economy. And so, as you mentioned, the farmers issue, the issue of soybeans that they talked about, these visits, which I think are important in a continued conversation, what the bigger picture looks like, though, to your question, I'm not sure we know. And I would just add to that what we heard from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, which had to do with the president of China talking about Taiwan and the fact that they would like to bring Taiwan, as we know, back into the fold of the Chinese mainland. And this comes not long after the Japanese prime minister said Japan could get involved militarily should China try to take action against Taiwan. So, you know, on the one hand, we have the important economic aspects of this, and on the other hand, we have the important security and military aspects of this. And for myself, I'm not sure I'M clear as to where President Trump stands on the ladder, which is arguably in some ways more important.

Host/Interviewer (11:07)

Howard Blutnik this morning, Lonnie on Bloomberg TV and radio made the point. The President's got all the information he needs to make a decision on high end AI chips, GPUs made by Nvidia. The H200 is apparently the model that or the version they're looking at here, not the Blackwell. But if these talks continue to progress on trade and our economic relationship, isn't that inevitable that Beijing gets its hands on this technology?

Lonnie Chen (11:34)

Yeah. And I think if you look at how the administration's approached issues like export controls, you know, inbound investment controls, all of these issues that have been really tricky in the last couple of administrations, it's pretty clear that the President's focus and his priority is on reaching an economic accommodation with China. And I think the recent de escalation and in fact the recent dialogue that we've seen between the two governments suggests that that is the President's ultimate priority. What he's willing to trade off, so to speak, what he's willing to put to the side in order to reach that economic accommodation. I think that's the big question people are asking. You raised the issue of Taiwan, which is existential for the Chinese Communist Party. The fact that the President has not pressed as hard on some of the issues that we know the Chinese are concerned about other countries pressing them on issues like the internal governance of the ccp, democratic potential, promotion of democratic norms in China. These are all issues that this administration has not introduced into the conversation. And I think deliberately so, the focus has been on reaching an economic accommodation. And I think if you'd ask people, before President Trump took office, this would have been a relatively surprising place to be one year, almost a year into his presidency, that we would have this sort of economic accommodation with China, that we'd be de escalating. Remember how high the tensions were with China when he first took office. So it is a remarkable turn of events. In a lot of ways, this is.

Host/Interviewer (13:07)

Going to be like a state visit for President Xi at the White House later in the year, I believe was the language that he used later in the year. So presumably at some point the second half of next year. Jeannie, we've got about a minute left. What will the optics be as they're building the President's new ballroom and President Xi rolls up the driveway.

Joe Matthew (13:31)

Yeah. Is the ballroom going to be done by that point, Joe? I expect they're going to try not to believe so, oh no, okay, then they won't be there. But it's going to bump right up to a midterm. So a visit like this, you know, it can play both ways in terms of domestic politics. But I do think it speaks to a continuation in Donald Trump's approach to foreign policy, which very much to Lonnie's point, is not about addressing issues of small d, democracy, human rights and those kinds of things, but about making deals. And he doesn't care who he makes those with, whether it is NBC or Xi Jinping, he is there to make deals and he feels comfortable doing that.

Host/Interviewer (14:10)

Well, there's no shortage of news today. If you're with us, stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Joe Matthew (15:22)

Youm'Re listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple, CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

Host/Interviewer (15:38)

We talk politics in Washington with the breaker from the White House, the president himself on Truth Social media, not only confirming the call earlier today with President Xi, but also at least putting his own stamp on what happened, calling it a very good telephone call with President Xi of China, one that included many topics, he says, including Ukraine, Russia, fentanyl, soybeans and other farm products. He talked about their successful meeting in South Korea of a couple of weeks ago and made clear that he will be going to China. President Trump says he's accepted an invitation to visit Beijing in April, after which he reciprocated that President Xi will be a guest for a state visit here in the US later on this year. There are questions though, about what else was discussed because China's version of that call is quite different than what President Trump mentioned here. And there is, of course, room for all of these to be true. But we've had a number of breaking stories over the past half hour or so with the Associated Press first reporting that a judge has dismissed cases against James Comey and Letitia James after finding that the prosecutor prosecutor was illegally appointed. We're also tracking, of course, the latest on a Ukraine peace plan. A 28 point plan we discussed last week has now apparently been whittled down to below 20 points with revisions coming from the Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to help favor Ukraine in the hopes of ending the war with Russia, maybe even by Thanksgiving of this week. We'll find out as we make our way through the next couple of days. But we start with what we know and a conversation with Jenny Welch from Bloomberg Economics. Our chief Geo economics analyst is with us in Washington. And Jenny, it's great to see you. China had some other ideas that it said came up on this call, namely Taiwan. When the president describes this as productive and very good. How do we think the Chinese are.

Jenny Welch (17:32)

Describing sounds from Beijing's readout to the call that they framed it in positive terms, that they felt that President Xi gave them respect on the matter, essentially recognizing that Taiwan is an issue that matter a lot to Beijing. And one that is not to be trifled with is I think how Beijing would frame that call. Now, what I think when they say Taiwan, what they're really referring to is this ongoing feud with Tokyo over statements that the prime minister there made about Taiwan soon after coming to power. And my bet is that this call was really about Beijing saying to Washington, let this play out. Don't get involved. Don't get behind your ally on this. Just let us play this out.

Host/Interviewer (18:13)

The anatomy of a phone call between two world leaders like this can be complex. We don't assume that President Xi just picked up the phone, or do we, knowing that there would typically be days of preparations and a drumbeat in the media leading up to that meeting?

Jenny Welch (18:28)

Well, normally when things like this come together, it takes some advanced scheduling. These are two leaders obviously, with pretty busy agendas. So you have to work that out. You have to work out the time difference. So I'm sure there was something that had to be put in the works a few days ago. But this doesn't look like a planned call. This wasn't, for example, a planned planned check in on status after the Busan meeting on how things are going with implementing the trade deal. This seems to be something that came out more organically, I think, in response to this ongoing feud between Beijing and Tokyo and statements that US representatives in the region made recently in support of Tokyo that might have led Beijing to think, let's say something preemptively now before Washington gets involved any further.

Host/Interviewer (19:09)

Really interesting. I want to ask you about one of the issues that they reportedly discussed on this call, which is Russia and Ukraine. You heard me mention the peace plan that is, as Marco Rubio describes, a living, breathing document is one that's still being changed. The Secretary of State talked about this as he showed up in Geneva over the weekend for meetings with Ukrainian officials.

Chuck Fleischman (19:32)

Listen, it is probably the most productive day we have had on this issue.

Host/Interviewer (19:37)

Maybe in the entirety of our engagement.

Chuck Fleischman (19:39)

But certainly in a very long time. But work remains and because this continues to be a working process, you know, I don't want to declare victory or finality.

Host/Interviewer (19:52)

US Officials say the draft agreement has been revised, but we don't know exactly what has come out or what has gone in suggesting that the Secretary of State is doing something at least more favorable for Ukraine, which had a non starter reaction when it saw this draft that included input from Russia, apparently not from Kyiv. What do we think is changing?

Jenny Welch (20:12)

Yeah, not just input. It sounds like it was co drafted with Russia. And you can see that in some of the terms like limiting the size of Ukraine's military, that's no go for Kyiv. Forcing Ukraine to turn over territories that Russia doesn't currently control. That's another no go. It's already hard for Ukraine to potentially accept the idea of ceding over territories that Russia does currently occupy. And I think that continues to be a real sticking point in these negotiations. But ultimately I think we've seen this movie before. Washington talks to Moscow, comes out with a set of terms that Moscow agrees with and the US wanting to get peace finally done brings them to Ukraine. Ukraine and the Europeans push back. We come up with a new deal that Moscow won't accept and the war just continues to grind on. So my prediction here is not an incredibly optimistic one and that I don't think we're likely to see a peace deal come out of it. But I do think whatever we do get is likely to be more favorable to Ukraine. And so there's a crisis averted that they're not going to be pushed into an unfavorable deal.

Host/Interviewer (21:13)

Doesn't sound like you see this ending by Thanksgiving though.

Jenny Welch (21:16)

Not the war for sure. Maybe the negotiations, because I think Moscow will very quickly say no.

Host/Interviewer (21:21)

What do you make of before you leave us, the three voices the president's hearing from on this, at least in the most recent throes of negotiations, Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, his son in law, and Marco Rubio, the secretary of state who's being framed in the media as the angel on his shoulder. And I'm not sure what the other two are, Jenny.

Jenny Welch (21:39)

I think this is what you might refer to as kind of a process foul where there have been people having negotiations with Moscow and maybe not a full principles or cabinet level alignment on the ultimate peace plan that would be produced and negotiated out of that. And what we see here is sort of Rubio getting back involved not only as secretary of State but also the national security advisor and trying to structure this process a little bit more. But this is not atypical for this administration or the Trump team in general. It's something we saw a lot in the first term and I think it's something we're likely to continue to see on this and other issues.

Host/Interviewer (22:12)

It's really great to talk this out with you, Jenny. Thank you so much. Jennifer Welch, Bloomberg Economics, our chief geo economist with us here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington with another breaker. It's just been one after the other today on this Monday in the Capitol. The White House now set to delay the health care proposal that we were told to anticipate. That's coming from I guess what we now call Ms. Now, the old msnbc, which was ahead on this story about a two year extension with limitations when it comes to Obamacare subsidies, not a full repeal and replace as we've seen in the past. This would allow the government from shutting down presumably at the end of January and would have two years on the clock here, get through the midterms and give lawmakers an opportunity to negotiate things. Apparently now that's not going to be the case and it's a good opportunity to bring in Chuck Fleischman, the Republican congressman from Tennessee is back with us today on Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's good to see you, Congressman. You're on the Appropriations Committee and you've got your eyes obviously on the future health care negotiations that were promised coming out of the government shutdown. Does this make you worry that another shutdown may be around the corner?

Chuck Fleischman (23:28)

No, not at all. The original shutdown. And thank you, Joe, for talking about me being on Appropriations. I'm actually a chairman on Appropriations. I chair the Energy and Water Subcommittee. So I have been involved in the appropriations process very, very closely and that's why I was so disheartened by the Democratic shutdown over this tangential issue, the health care subsidies. That has nothing to do with the appropriations process. And since the Democrats caved on that because they couldn't stand on that, they're going to have to try to find another issue. They lost the shutdown because they hurt the American people. I'm going to focus on either before January 30th or by January 30th, us conferencing the remaining nine bills. We've done three that are passed into law, Milcon, va ag approbes and legislative Branch approves. To our credit, that is done. We've got nine more to go. I'm an optimist. I think we will get it done. I do think the Democrats hurt themselves on the ACA issues with the subsidies by bringing that in extraneously to a process that had nothing to do with it. They were making more progress before this. They hurt themselves with a lot of folks, particularly on the right.

Host/Interviewer (24:45)

Well, I know that you see it that way, Congressman, but we're six weeks out from Obamacare subsidies except expiring. And you've got John Thune promising next door a vote on this. And I know there are even some Republican members, I won't say the name Marjorie Taylor Greene out loud, but some Republican members who've actually made quite a fuss about rising premiums. At some point, something needs to be done, right? You either extend this or you replace it with something. What do you think it should be?

Chuck Fleischman (25:12)

Well, bear this in mind. These were Covid area, Covid era policies that were actually put in place. So this is not from the original Affordable Care act, from the original Obamacare. And I would agree we need as a nation to have comprehensive health care reform. But this just shows the Achilles heel of Obamacare, of the frailties. It was. It was doomed from the inception. Many parts of it had fallen apart. It's not been what it was promised to be by President Obama and the Democrats back then. We need as Americans, Republicans and Democrats, Senators, members of the House, to really look at where we can actually fix the health care situation. The left has gone crazy. They want Medicare for all. They want these subsidies. But again, this was a non issue. This was totally outside the process. Everybody in the Beltway knew this. That's why when the Democrats caved in, they had nothing to stand on. That's why so many in their base are upset. As for Ms. Greene, I respect her opinions and the like. As you see, she's going to Be leaving the House, vacating her seat. She's my neighbor, right to the south, right across the Georgia line. She's in my media market. I wish her well. And we look forward to the next special election, which a Republican will win with ease in March.

Host/Interviewer (26:33)

I suspect that that's true based on the makeup of that district. The White House plan that just been delayed, Congressman, apparently includes a two year extension of the Obamacare subsidies and new limits on eligibility. There'd be some, for instance, income caps for enrollees to qualify for ACA tax credits as well as minimum premium payments. Is that something that you could get your arms around to keep premium?

Chuck Fleischman (26:59)

I want to look at what comes out. Excellent question. I was willing all along to discuss this issue. If you recall, when the Democrats shut the government down and finally now they admit they did for whatever reason, they say over these subsidies, they hurt people on snap, they hurt women, infants and children, they hurt poor people, they hurt working people, they hurt the country. The issue of these subsidies is an important issue. But as you recall, I think we need to look at the overall system for reforms. As I understand these subsidies as they exist now, they're giving it to people who are sometimes 400 times the poverty level. So if we're going to help people, let's help people who are truly needy and not those who are not in need just for some hypothetical political win for the Democrats. But I still go back to the fact Democrats hurt themselves on a tangible issue that was outside the appropriation process. If they'd have continued to negotiate with our speaker, with Republicans, you would have found a lot of Republicans coming to the table to talk about that issue, but in its proper lane, outside the appropriation process where it's always been.

Host/Interviewer (28:15)

Well, I'll tell you what, when everybody comes back, at some point there's going to need to be a funding mechanism. And as the appropriations man yourself, you just ticked through some of these spending bills. Do we really believe that you can can get 12 spending bills passed and a government funded before January 30th, or do we need another CR in there somewhere? Because whether it's now January 30th, February 30th, it would be the first time in a generation. I think that happened, Congressman.

Chuck Fleischman (28:41)

Well, Joe, you raise an excellent point. Let me take it backwards to forwards. We do not need a government shutdown. It is always wrong to shut the government down. That's why I'm still furious with Chuck Schumer for this blatant lie, this myth that he perpetrated on the American people. Everybody in Washington, D.C. democrats and Republicans knew it was wrong. They did it for whatever reason. So we need to keep it open. Now the best way to keep it open is with a budget. Of the 12 bills. We've got three of the bills done, so we've got nine left. The reality is I think we can probably get another six done, maybe seven. And then those balance of bills that perhaps are going to be harder to conference. I'll be specific. State and foreign ops, Homeland Security, those are harder bills. My bill, the energy and water bill is a very non controversial bill. Tremendous bipartisan and bicameral support. The Senate is supposed to have their version out today. My version has been out and actually passed in the House for months. What I think we'll do is pass maybe 7 of the 12, maybe 8 of the 12 and then the balance of those bills. Work on it on a cr so some type of what we call in DC a chromatous part continuing resolution on those field bills. We can't. But let's try to go for all 12 and see how many we can do. We've got three down, nine to go. I'm hopeful for more.

Host/Interviewer (30:01)

All right, fantastic. I need to ask you about the election that is looming. A special in your state of Tennessee December 2nd to fill former Representative Mark Green seat. Democrats are putting a lot of money into this and you might have seen some writing at Punchbowl this morning. They're crunching numbers here in a world in which Democrats flip that seat and get a couple of others here. Keep Mikey Sherrill's seat in New Jersey, not to mention the one in Houston, the late Representative Sylvester Turner's seat. Republicans could have something like a two seat margin if this does not go your way. Will Tennessee in our remaining moment keep that from happening?

Chuck Fleischman (30:45)

Yes, you're absolutely right. Looking at that. Chad Pergrim had a very good article on the entire situation today. Punchbowl did as well. Let me explain pretty much where this is. You're absolutely right.

Host/Interviewer (30:57)

That's going to be quick though. Sorry, sir.

Chuck Fleischman (30:59)

Sir.

Host/Interviewer (31:01)

Just got to be quick. Sorry. Only about 30 seconds.

Chuck Fleischman (31:04)

A win in Houston. Van Imps will win in Tennessee, maybe not by 20 points. He'll beat Afton Bain with ease. The New Jersey seat will be will be Democratic and the Marjorie Taylor Greene will be Republican, will be up by probably 2 to 4. Narrow margins. But we can govern with narrow margins.

Host/Interviewer (31:26)

Political analysis from Chuck Fleischman. I love this. The Republican congressman from Tennessee with his take. Thank you, Congressman, as always. We never even got to nuclear. It's a Monday in Washington. Thanks for being with us on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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Joe Matthew (32:47)

Youm'Re listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and Friday, 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30 the.

Host/Interviewer (33:07)

Secretary of State describes the peace plan for Ukraine as a living, breathing document. Every day, with input, he says, it changes. And that of course was the story. Over the course of of the weekend, the Secretary of State dispatched to Geneva to meet with Ukrainian officials about this peace plan that is still evolving. In fact, revisions were made following the Secretary's meeting with Ukraine to make this more favorable, more palatable to Kiev in a week. Of course, President Trump said he wanted this done, putting forth a Thanksgiving deadline. The Secretary of State walking that back a bit as well, saying the deadline is that we want to get this done as soon as possible. We'd love it to be Thursday. The important point to is that we have made substantial progress. Progress was the word that came out of this meeting with questions remaining about the source of this 28 point plan. Was it in fact drafted with the help of the Russians? In a tweet on Sunday, the Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk brought this to the fore, saying that he and other leaders are ready to negotiate, quote. However, before we start our work, he wrote, it would be good to know for sure who is the author of the plan and where it was created, unquote. Much of this rides on security guarantees whether Ukraine must give up territory or not, and we still need to see exactly where this plan stands now, following the revisions, the security guarantees by the US and by our European allies will be key to anything moving forward here with the White House invoking, at least privately, something along the lines of an article for 5 violation if Ukraine were attacked. It's not just the Poles who are weighing in here, the Lithuanians as well. Speaking with Bloomberg's Oliver Crook this morning, Lithuania's Foreign Minister Custodious Boutrius, speaking about the prospect of a security guarantee. Let's listen together.

Lonnie Chen (35:10)

We cannot build our security on the hope that Russia will keep the promises.

Host/Interviewer (35:14)

They never did and they do not respect the international law.

Chuck Fleischman (35:17)

What they should, you know, in the.

Host/Interviewer (35:18)

Upcoming five, 10 or 20 years, they won't.

Lonnie Chen (35:21)

So that's why we need a credible, working deterrence system and that it is building the European security with, with Ukraine. And it's for us to decide how we will do it. It's not for the others and especially not for Russia.

Host/Interviewer (35:33)

Especially not for Russia. He says even though Russian fingerprints are all over this peace plan, it's where we start our conversation with Angela Stent, senior fellow at AEI and author of Putin's World, Russia against the west and with the rest. Angela, it's great to see you. Thank you for joining us. Could these revisions be made enough that Ukraine, in fact, accepts this peace plan?

Angela Stent (35:58)

Well, there's a lot of noise and confusion about all of this. But I mean, I think Ukraine, there are several red lines. It's not going to give up territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control. And that's why, you know, when you, when you read the draft of the treaty, some of it was clearly drafted in Moscow. We can argue about how much was, and then that it will never be able to join Naito. That's really up to Naito, as the Europeans have pointed out, not to Russia or really to the United States. It has to reduce the size of its armed forces, which are about 900,000 now, to 600,000. And I'm sure there's some bargaining room there. And the European plan, the counter plan to the U.S. russian one says that this is something that can be discussed, know that there would be amnesty for everyone in this war. Again, from the Ukrainian point of view, the devastation that Russia has caused, the loss of life, the terror, the assassinations, Putin, anyway, has been declared a war criminal by the International Criminal Court. So there are a number of red lines, I think, here for Ukraine. But clearly this is a bargaining process that's going on. It's obviously not going to be completed by Thanksgiving. And the question, one of the questions for me is, is Russia going to drag this out now and say it's interested in a serious negotiation so that it can continue to make some advances along the battle lines in the hope that next year Ukraine will be in a weaker position than it is now?

Host/Interviewer (37:32)

Well, that would be right out of the Putin playbook. What do you think, Angela, about the individuals who have brought us to this point? We, of course, know Steve Witkoff has been deeply involved, apparently Jared Kushner, the president's son in law as well. But then to see the Secretary of State come in with changes in Geneva, are they all on the same page or not?

Angela Stent (37:54)

Well, clearly this was drafted by Kirill Dmitriev, who's the head of the sovereign wealth fund in Russia, and Stephen Wykoff, he visited, he Dimitriev came to the United States. We made an exemption to grant him a visa, even though he's actually not supposed to get one. And he met in Miami with Mr. Witkoff, apparently with Jared Kushner, and they drafted this. But, you know, as far as we can see, Secretary Rubio was not involved in that drafting. And there was this curious thing over the weekend where he had a call with a bipartisan group of senators at the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada saying that he hadn't seen this before, that this came from Russia, and this wasn't an American plan. Then he reversed himself a couple of hours later and said it was an American plan. He was there yesterday in Geneva. But I think the impression one gets is of lack of coordination within the administration about this agreement. And who really wrote it?

Host/Interviewer (38:58)

Not so much on the same page. Angela Stent, I saw you in the New York Times yesterday, experts, seven experts on how to actually end the war in Ukraine. And you brought your prescription, which is fascinating to read here. Sanctions are not enough. You say Ukraine needs to be able to purchase more weapons to convince Putin he will not win on the battlefield. And you go along to say even if the Europeans were able to provide a stabilization force without US Backup, that force would be constrained in what it can do. So what is the credible security guarantee in your eyes?

Angela Stent (39:34)

So a credible security guarantee would be, if the US is serious about it, an Article 5 type guarantee. But that of course begs the question, well, if you're going to give it the same guarantee that you give Naito, why not admit Ukraine to NATO? But obviously that's off the cards at the moment. But it would have to be credible. And the way we don't know how this is being formulated from the US Side in this current peace agreement. But, you know, previous guarantees didn't work. We all signed a memorandum in 1994 when Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons to come to its assistance if it were again invaded, and nobody did. So I think you really have to have a guarantee where you can really believe that the US Would back up its European allies and if Russia were to reinvade, would use military force to get Russia to go back into Russia and leave Ukraine.

Chuck Fleischman (40:30)

Mm.

Host/Interviewer (40:31)

What do you make of the language from the Secretary of State that now this must be seen, the revisions must be seen and reviewed by Moscow? I think the line was that, of course, Moscow. That, of course, Russia gets a vote. Why are we so careful in dealing with the invading country? In this case, because we have a.

Angela Stent (40:54)

President who really wants to improve ties to Russia, wants to reset relations with Russia once. Once this war to end. He believes it wouldn't have started had he been president in 2022, and wants to get on with business deals with Russia, with maybe another nuclear arms control agreement with Russia. And this is, I think, why we're taking Russia into account. But we're treating the aggressor somehow better than we're treating the victim.

Host/Interviewer (41:25)

You've got the army secretary in Kiev. Why is Dan Driscoll part of this, but the Secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth, is nowhere to be found?

Angela Stent (41:34)

Well, here we get into maybe the internal politics of what's happening in this administration. Apparently, General Driscoll is quite close to the vice president, J.D. vance, who is advancing his potential candidacy, maybe to be the next Secretary of War. That's one explanation for it.

Host/Interviewer (41:57)

Okay, interesting. So what are the odds that President Trump and Vladimir Putin get together with Viktor Orban in Hungary for a summit? If they hammer out a peace plan here that Moscow feels is acceptable, is that the next step?

Angela Stent (42:16)

I think that would. Would have been one of them. I think what we now have to see is, as the Secretary of State said, this is a living document. They're still making revisions to it. And if, you know, they believe that they've. This is the best offer they can make. And if the Russians are willing to sign on, because the Russians will have to make some compromises, too, which has to do with the use of their frozen assets, then I think we could see a summit in Budapest. I wouldn't want to give a timetable to it, but that's a possibility.

Host/Interviewer (42:50)

Wow. We could see, I guess, President Zelensky here in Washington first. The reporting is he could make a visit as soon as this week, if this comes together. Is that a smart move for him now, Angela? It seems to be. What, one out of four visits go pretty well for him at the White House. He found himself on the other side of the Cabinet Room table last time he was here with reporters crowding behind him and didn't exactly get the treatment that Viktor Orban got. Why come to Washington?

Angela Stent (43:19)

Because, I mean, Ukraine, Ukraine really doesn't want to lose what is left of U.S. support. And we're not really giving them financial support anymore, but we're still allowing Europeans to buy weapons from us that they then give to Ukraine. It's called the Pearl program. He wants that and he doesn't. I don't think he wants to antagonize President Trump any further. But, you know, the last time we were here, he was there, as you said, he was asked tough questions. But on the other hand, you know, you can see the photos of the two leaders, the two presidents smiling. And then we have this complete reversal from President Trump tweeting out yesterday that Ukraine was ungrateful, using really the same words that he used during that disastrous Oval Office meeting in February. So if Zelensky did come here, it would be really to reinforce the fact that Ukraine is willing to sign a peace deal, to have an immediate cease fire along the current lines of contact. In other words, not ceding territory to Russia that Russia doesn't control. And that's why he would come here. But I'm not sure that it would be that advisable at the moment. I'm sure that he would wait and see how this now plays out with the meeting yesterday between in the United States, Ukraine, and then there were some Europeans there. And then there's also a European plan which Secretary Rubio says that he hasn't read yet, but maybe taking some of that into account, too.

Host/Interviewer (44:46)

Yeah, it does seem interesting how we always get back to square one on the rhetoric here. It looks like the gears are turning once again on Russia sanctions. On Capitol Hill, Angela Sten, in our remaining moment or so, I wonder if you see that hastening the acceptance of a peace plan, is that motivating Donald Trump or Vladimir Putin?

Angela Stent (45:08)

So I'm afraid you just cut out. I didn't hear your question.

Host/Interviewer (45:12)

The prospect of sanctions in our remaining moment, will that hasten a peace deal?

Angela Stent (45:16)

Yeah, I think. I mean, that's the intention of it, certainly to put more pressure on the Russians. There is that. Yeah. Senate bill that could be signed any moment. And President Trump could sign it, too. That's to get the Russians to seriously sit at the table. I don't know how effective that will be, but that's certainly the intent of it.

Host/Interviewer (45:39)

Well, we'll see if it goes anywhere. Angela, thank you for joining us. It's been some time since we had a chance to speak with Angela Stent. The book is Putin's World, Russia against the West. And with the rest, senior fellow at aei, we'll keep tabs on this story that could develop again today with the Secretary of State back in the United States following his trip to Geneva and revisions that are actively being made to the peace plan. Breaking news as well, James. Call me Letitia. James Charges dropped. The indictments have been thrown out against both of them in a story that we're still getting our heads around here. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com if a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around. Just go directly to the source lenovo.com you'll find exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 Gaming Desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source lenovo.com where PCs are up to 50% off. That's lenovo.com lenovo Lenovo.

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