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Joe Matthew
I just bumped into Michael McKee. He had his briefcase and he was on his way over to the Fed. Well, the treasury is where they do this, right? But he'll be talking about this, of course, with us a little bit later on in the broadcast. We'll get, of course, the announcement on interest rates. We'll get the policy statement and there will be a news conference today. We'll take it live as part of our special Fed coverage That begins at 1:30pm the news conference at 2:30, and we'll have all the voices you expect and trust here on Bloomberg as we watch the markets crumble today. This is pretty ugly with a VIX now suddenly above 20 and we're all looking at oil. As Charlie mentioned, we're above 7% and I guess it shouldn't be a surprise based on the news that we received overnight. So thanks for joining us here on the Wednesday edition, each day feeling slightly more important than the last, even though we don't have a sense of exactly where we're going from here. But we're live for you on Bloomberg Radio. We're streaming live on YouTube where you can dial us up by searching Bloomberg Business News Live. And we are once again straddling ends of Pennsylvania Avenue with our eyes on the Middle East. The president will be speaking later on today. There's an event at the White House about three hours from now with the Treasury Secretary and they're going to be talking about one of our favorite topics here in the Washington area and that's how to get rid of or somehow renovate Dulles Airport. They're getting rid of the people movers and if that's not something we can all agree on, I'm not sure what we have left. But when the president talks to reporters about this, surely he'll be asked about what's happening in Iran. Surprise attack is the headline we wake up to this morning. Saudi Arabia in the subhead. And if you're like me and you grew up in the 1980s, that was the recipe for World War Three. Right? The US starts bombing Iran and Saudi Arabia gets involved in the Middle East. How do you get out of that? The president doesn't have an answer yet, but. But he is pretty angry. Let's just set the baseline. We heard from CENTCOM a while ago. In fact, it was late last night when they told us that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran in an attempted surprise attack on US Forces based in the Middle East. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted. Pretty impressive. US Forces remain vigilant, it says at a high state of readiness. Yeah, attempted surprise attack is the language we're going with here. Now the U.S. of course, had paused the back and forth for some time. I guess we have let go of the pause button here because the president is promising something fierce after the US and Saudi Arabia in response to more than 30 drone attacks directed by the IRGC got in the air together. Saudi fighter jets alongside Americans pounding targets in Iraq. These are Iranian backed militias or as CENTCOM put it, Iran aligned terrorists doing the work for Tehran. President spoke with Fox News. Wow, can't read it on the air. We'll be hitting them hard. We hear you. They're going to be getting a beating. You said we're going to beat the effing s out of them. The President of the United States telling Fox News it's right here in black and white with lots of dots in between. So what's about to happen? At times like these we turn to Becca Wasser and I'm glad to say she's back in our Washington bureau. Leads our defense analysis at Bloomberg Economics. And Becca, it's great to see you. I'm just curious, were you modeling an event like this with Saudi Arabia's involvement when you were at the Pentagon?
Becca Wasser
I mean, it is a long standing tradition of US Military war fighting to fight alongside allies and partners in coalitions. In fact, this war actually stands apart in that it was launched with only the United States and Israel. So here the US has fought alongside Saudi Arabia in the past, but the Saudis haven't been quite as active in previous coalitions like the fight against the Islamic State where they have contributed some military and financial support but not necessarily flown sorties alongside the United States.
Joe Matthew
The first time we've seen them in the air and fire missiles.
Becca Wasser
Well, at least in more recent memory, that's for sure. And the US has trained them. They have US fighter jets, they have US training. And they've also learned during the campaign that they waged against the Houthis in Yemen during the Yemen air war a little bit in like 2015 or so. So Saudi Arabia has learned on the fly. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they are at the same level of prowess as the US Moses.
Joe Matthew
Okay, are they flying F minus 15s? Is that the most advanced aircraft? They have a few generations behind what we we've got for our.
Becca Wasser
Yes, they've got their own specialized version, the sa. So that's what they've largely been flying.
Joe Matthew
And we're training them or we have trained them. But I guess your point is these are not the top guns who are flying for the United States in the region. Are they helpful or is this more about presenting a united front?
Becca Wasser
Whether they are helpful or not, let's put that aside. But the fact that they are entering the fray, they are directly taking responsibility for their own security after being hit. They are contributing to a fight, albeit a fight against IRGC backed militias as opposed to against Iranian targets directly, but they are contributing and that is what we are starting to see which is a widening of this conflict. There have been reports of a other Gulf states contributing to strikes on Iranian targets. We've also seen a broadening of geography. The Red Sea is now in play. And now frankly you have parts of Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq that are now party to this broader conflict.
Joe Matthew
Assuming the pause is off here, should we stop calling this then the US war with Iran? This is the Middle east war, isn't it?
Becca Wasser
We'll see where it goes. But right now it still is the U. S. Iran war that those are the two primary belligerent. But you know, I think our long standing call at Bloomberg Economics is that this is a protracted conflict, a long conflict that's going to ebb and flow in fluctuation. And part of the histories of protracted conflicts is that they almost always expand geographically and in the number of parties involved. And that's what we're starting to see play out here.
Joe Matthew
Fascinating. The two primary belligerents. Someday I want to be able to talk in the lingo like the defense analysts around here. Ben Jensen was was hailing Kailey Lyons use of opportunity costs yesterday. You guys have your own glossary which I'm fascinated by.
Becca Wasser
So does the President with his terminology about strikes.
Joe Matthew
Glad you brought me there. So when we talk about the effing and the S and the rest of it.
Becca Wasser
Those are doctrinal terms.
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Are we.
Joe Matthew
Okay, that's good. Are we talking power plants, bridges? What can we actually do to inflict harm that has not been felt?
Becca Wasser
Well, it's a question of whether you want to inflict that level of harm.
Katie Frost
Right.
Becca Wasser
Because power plants, bridges, these are, they could be for military use, but they are also for civilian use. And that puts the US in very potentially dangerous footing. So, yes, there are plenty of different targets that the US could go after in terms of continuing its air and missile strikes. That would ratchet up the pain on Iran, but it would also ratchet up pain on Iranian civilians. And it's an open question whether the US Wants to go down that route. Additionally, the president has said before that, you know, all options are still on the table, and that includes other efforts potentially trying to move towards escorting ships in the Strait, potentially even a very big operation that would either be, you know, a strike, say, on an Iranian nuclear facility, or even an operation to reopen the Strait by force, which would put US Boots on the ground and be incredibly costly in times in terms
Joe Matthew
of blood and treasure, which we've discussed before, as these are the options, menu of options before him. When we spent time with Mike Pence, the former vice president, last evening, he kept saying, you know, they don't come to the table world, do it the hard way, kind of like President Trump says, and we'll, we'll finish this for them. But is that what you're describing? Boots on the ground forcibly open the straight occupy Carg Island. That, that's the, the full effect?
Becca Wasser
I think that's right now probably the highest escalation option on the table. But that doesn't mean that it's going to, you know, finish the job and bring Iran to the it could actually backfire and put the US on the path to this being a true forever war. Because when you see US Ground forces often go into countries, it's a long time before the US Ends up coming out. And we are sometimes looking at years, if not decades, if you want to look at Afghanistan.
Joe Matthew
Yeah, that's the definition of quagmire. Becca Wasser does this for a living and we're lucky to have her in our bureau with Bloomberg Economics leads our defense analysis. And Becca, it's great to have you back. Thank you so much. With much more to discuss. And we shall over the course of the program with the impact of this war on energy, something that we're going to get into straight ahead with John Bozzella as We turn to the auto industry. The CEO of the alliance for Automotive Innovation is coming up next. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
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Joe Matthew
Thanks for joining us. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. It's interesting to see what's holding up in this market today. I mean, this is brutal. You get the Dow down 900 points and you wonder if anybody's buying anything. They are. They've been buying the automakers. GM was positive until of course I mentioned this two seconds ago. It's down a fraction right now. But look at Ford after earnings up three and a half percent in a market like this. And it has a lot to do with the SUVs as opposed to the EVs. Similar narrative coming from both companies. Remembering that President Trump was actually out at GM at the testing facility there last week. Remember we talked about the proving ground. Pretty cool, by the way. You know, they did a drag race for the President. Must have loved this stuff. We saw images of him there. They put a Hummer up against an Escalade. What's more fun than that? Actually, they put a Corvette up against a Hummer. I'd show up for that too. Maybe we'll have some results for you on this drag race. But the President was making the point that this is a business that America is invested in and is growing in this environment. Here's what he said. We were building more auto factories and more plants than at any time in the history of, of our country today. I'm proud to say that the auto industry is back and America is back, and it's pulling Detroit and Michigan along with it. I placed historic tariffs on foreign producers and manufacturers, including a 25% tariff on
Charlie Pellet
foreign automobiles, something that no other president had the courage to ever do.
Joe Matthew
Remembering that, that gave automakers some heartburn. The idea of retooling factories, moving production lines. Of course, a lot of this runs into the usmca, which makes it a little bit easier for a General Motors or a Ford. But we want to talk about some of these issues and the new effort to keep Chinese made cars out of the country, which is something that's been cooking on Capitol Hill. The bill just cleared committee last week, as we told you. John Bozzella is with us, the President and CEO, alliance for Automotive Innovation. John, it's great to see you. Welcome back.
John Bozzella
Good to be here.
Joe Matthew
Joe, how are you? I'm great. I got to tell you. So I looked this up because we covered this the day it happened. James, I don't know if you saw this, but the 1250 horsepower Corvette, this is a ZR1X. Decisively beat the Hummer. I guess maybe we shouldn't be surprised, but the Hummer easily outperformed the Escalade. I'm not sure if there's a life lesson in there, but I kind of wish I was at the drag race. Were you at the track that day?
John Bozzella
I was not at the track that day, but I would love to.
Joe Matthew
Super cool facility. This is like where the first rollover test took place. They got 150 miles to drive, whatever they want to do out there. And the President did have a pretty good story to tell. How are these companies putting up numbers like this in an environment like this where a year ago we were talking about the potential for a catastrophe, beginning with the tariff regime?
John Bozzella
Yeah, I think there's one word to describe it, and it's resiliency. I think the companies are resilient. I think the customer is resilient. And so what's happening is companies like General Motors and Ford and Toyota and others are having to navigate a challenging and complex industry. And they're doing it really well because they have products that customers want and need. And the market's holding up pretty well.
Joe Matthew
And they're answering demand, we're told, by turning back to the old fashioned ice product like an SUV. We're at $4 and something a gallon and people can't seem to fill the tank fast enough. What do you make of this?
John Bozzella
Yeah, I think. Well, that's certainly.
Joe Matthew
Is that not true? That's part of the top line, but
John Bozzella
let's unpack it a little bit.
Joe Matthew
Sure.
John Bozzella
There is no question, question that SUVs and pickup trucks are selling. But what we're also seeing is compact SUVs and small pickup trucks are outselling large SUVs and large pickup trucks. What we're also seeing this year so far is a downward trend in the sale of ICE vehicles and an upward trend in the sale of hybrids and a little bit of babs. But like we're at a historic low with regard to the sales of internal combustion.
Joe Matthew
Hybrid is what is filling the gap.
John Bozzella
Hybrids are filling the gap.
Joe Matthew
Interesting.
John Bozzella
Yeah.
Joe Matthew
Does that play into the price of gas? I just calling up AAA here. We're at $4.09 today. We've seen worse. But this is historically an issue. And you've got diesel over $5, which is a completely different conversation. But is it, is it changing people's buying behavior?
John Bozzella
I think it is. I think that's partly like this. This trend of more hybrids has been going on for some time, but it's clearly there's a lot of opportunity for customers to get what they want with a more efficient powertrain.
Katie Frost
Okay.
Joe Matthew
I want to ask you about this move to keep Chinese made vehicles out of the country. I went to Capitol Hill last week to talk with Senator Alyssa Slotkin, who was the Democrat on the bill along with Senator Moreno was the Republican. They both joined us initially when the bill dropped. We spoke with her the day it cleared committee. Here's what she had to say.
Katie Frost
This wasn't targeted at any one car company. We want them to continue selling cars in the United States of America. We really just say like, you can't be, you can't have a serious influence from the Chinese Communist Party in what you do in America. Interesting. And those cars are driving surveillance collectors. I can't, as a former CIA officer and as a Michigander in good faith say that they should be sold in the United States.
Joe Matthew
All right, so she's talking about more than you know by these. There are cars that people notice might not be thinking of like Volvo, have a majority ownership by a Chinese entity, Mercedes. Do there need to be waivers for companies like this or do they need to start moving things around in their ownership structure?
John Bozzella
Yeah, it's a good question. And it's a little bit different for Volvo versus Mercedes. So Volvo is already subject to current regulation related to connected vehicle technology and potential influence from China. And what the regulator did is provided Volvo with permission to stay in the market. Right. So they analyzed the situation and they, they negotiated and drew a conclusion that Volvo was okay to operate in the market. What the bill that Senator Slotkin and Senator Moreno or Moreno were sponsoring would add in addition to the regulation, an new ownership threshold. And that threshold would be set about 15%, and that's what would bring Mercedes in. And in that case, they would be regulated just like Volvo is. And they would have to go through that process with the regulator. Could they achieve a waiver? I would imagine they could.
Joe Matthew
That is a possibility of. According to both senators, of course. Would you like to see that happen? They're all part of the alliance, right?
John Bozzella
Yes, they are all part of the alliance. This is a very challenging set of issues. We have companies on all sides of this, companies that think there should be a threshold, companies that think there should, shouldn't be a threshold because the agency is capable of making these decisions on a case by case basis. This is why we have policymakers and this is why we depend on the leadership of Senator Slotkin and Senator Moreno to make the right political decision based on the equities as they see them.
Joe Matthew
There are questions about what it is we're trying to keep from happening because you can't buy a Chinese car in this country. Is there a belief that if this bill were not passed that someday you will have a BYD lot in Northern Virginia?
John Bozzella
I think that's part of it. Or where we have. We have strong tariff protection right now.
Charlie Pellet
Right.
John Bozzella
The US Government has concluded that vehicles from China are represent unfair and discriminatory competition. So that's the 301 tariff. The agency has concluded, the Commerce Department, that this technology is a surveillance and national security threat. So that that's what creates the market as it is today. What the legislation does is to tighten those regulations up and maybe reduce some of the flexibilities and loopholes that might be available to a future administration.
Joe Matthew
Because your fear is having a Chinese made car like a BYD or having a Chinese part in a seemingly non Chinese car. That might be a listening device.
John Bozzella
There's two concerns here. One is competition's got to be fair and reciprocal. When it's fair and reciprocal, companies here can compete with companies anywhere. So that's the first point. The second point is, yes, this national security and surveillance concern must be addressed. And by the way, the Chinese have similar rules.
Joe Matthew
Let's talk a Little bit about the rest of the industry here because we're in an environment with high gas prices, as we're mentioning high oil prices, and a trade agreement with Mexico and Canada that's up for renewal. The White House doesn't seem too eager to renew it. This will keep extending and rolling year after year if we don't do something about it. How important is it to the auto sector that we renegotiate and renew the usmca?
John Bozzella
It is absolutely critical that we conclude a new trilateral agreement between the U.S. mexico and Canada. Absolutely. Think of it not just as a trade agreement. Think about it as a competitiveness platform. This is critical to create Fortress North America, to be able to compete against China and to be more competitive vis a vis China. And so it's that important.
Joe Matthew
Does that keep automakers protected otherwise from tariffs that might force them to move manufacturing lines?
John Bozzella
I think it's critical because right now, what we've had over the last 26 or 27 years is, is duty free, seamless trade that has allowed the companies to optimize labor, energy production and innovation to create affordability and choice for consumers in. In the US That's a wonderful thing. We need more of that. And that's what the trade agreement does.
Joe Matthew
What's it like when you go to buy a car? Do you. Do you like. You're like, I'm not getting the undercoating. I know this game, you guys. I don't. You must be the best guy to go car shopping with, right?
John Bozzella
Maybe the second or third best.
Joe Matthew
Yeah.
John Bozzella
I do enjoy it, you know, I learn a lot from our dealer partners. Every time I. Every time I go into it to
Joe Matthew
go knock on Don Byers door to talk about it. What do you think about buying a car online? Would you ever do it?
John Bozzella
Certainly.
Joe Matthew
I can't imagine that.
John Bozzella
Certainly. Research, sure.
Joe Matthew
But people are ordering a car online, it shows up in the driveway, you
John Bozzella
know, I'm gonna kick the tires guy.
Joe Matthew
You want to go take it out for a test drive, right?
John Bozzella
I do.
Joe Matthew
Do you take the guy with you on the test drive or you demand the car on your own?
Charlie Pellet
Always.
Joe Matthew
You don't want to be alone in the car?
Charlie Pellet
No.
Joe Matthew
Really?
John Bozzella
Well, it's not that I don't want to be alone. I wanna.
Joe Matthew
You don't want this guy breathing?
John Bozzella
I want to give a running commentary.
Joe Matthew
Okay. Really?
John Bozzella
Well, give the feedback.
Joe Matthew
Would you come with me when I buy my next car?
John Bozzella
Be delighted.
Joe Matthew
All right. This is a deal. We have this on the air. You got the date. James, this is great. I'm glad you came to see us once again, Joe, because we have a lot of important issues to but when it comes to usmca, the impact of energy prices, they all converge on your business. It's really something.
John Bozzella
No doubt.
Joe Matthew
Cars are America, I guess. Indeed something like that. John Bozzella, you can steal that if you want. Alliance for Automotive Innovation it's great to see you. Thank you sir for coming with us. You never know who you're going to meet here in the Washington bureau at Bloomberg. We will assemble our political panel next. We've got a lot more to talk about, including two important confirmations. One of them is already done. Jay Clayton has the keys to the intelligence apparatus. We'll have that next right here. Stay with us On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
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certain, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
Joe Matthew
I've told people Charlie before about you. You travel around the world as a daring, not tourist, but traveler with a deep interest in aviation and have flown into some of the most wild airports. In fact, the most dangerous airport in the world.
Charlie Pellet
Absolutely right. Nepal. One fantastic trip. I'm big on infrastructure too. I seek out the stations, the trains, the sewage plants, the city halls. I love seeing stuff like that.
Joe Matthew
That's right, see a sewage plant with Charlie Pellet. But no, I'm just wondering. I bet you're one of the guys who likes Dulles Airport. Am I wrong?
Charlie Pellet
Without A doubt. Absolutely. Absolutely right. And I'll tell you why. And I know exactly where you're going with this. One of the few places where you can ride a people mover. We used to have them at jfk, by the way.
Joe Matthew
So look, if they had actually fulfilled their original purpose in design, the idea was to have a mobile lounge, right? You would get into this thing after you left the terminal. It would drive you to your plane. They were gonna rise up. You walk on the plane, it would be super cool. But they never did that, Charlie. And now all they do is drive around in circles, sometimes bump into each other.
Charlie Pellet
Well, let me.
Joe Matthew
And the President today is announcing a renovation to finally get rid of them.
Charlie Pellet
Let me up the ante. Do you ever think we'll have a day? And I don't think we will for a number of reasons. But how cool would it be to have the nose of the aircraft actually pull into the terminal so you can get out without a jetway or a bridge? Think about that. And another innovation happening in your old stomping ground of Massachusetts. Getting you from the middle of Massachusetts out to Logan. You handle your TSA ahead of time. Get on a bus, and then you've already cleared security. Just amazing.
Joe Matthew
Listen, I'll meet you on the Logan Express anytime you want. If they can do that for me, that's a deal. Because I have to go like an hour outside of Boston.
Charlie Pellet
Well, if you're free this weekend, we could do a sewage plant together.
Joe Matthew
He's the last of the romantics, everybody. Charlie Pallet. We thank you. He'll take you out on a people mover. My pleasure. Sewage plant? I don't know. So here's the plan. By the way, CBS was the first to report this. Washington Post did some other reporting as well. A new Dulles. This is a 25, $22 billion renovation. Refurbish the interior. He wants to keep the slanted roof. You know, the sloped roof. Main terminal. It is pretty cool. Sort of Jetsons architecture. Scrap the mobile lounges and install a new underground U shaped arrow train.
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I don't know why.
Joe Matthew
It's not just a train. An aero train to bring travelers to their terminals, along with moving sidewalks. I'll go to Dulles anytime. If you guys work all this stuff out. If you're with us on 991 here in Washington, we see you. Now. The President's going to be rolling this out at 3 o'. Clock. He's got an event on the Oval with Sean Duffy. They're going to have. I'm sure. Schematics and artistic renderings talking about the airport. And I suspect they'll be talking about Jay Clayton, assuming reporters get questions. And Todd Blanche. This is getting interesting. It seems Dulles airport and the people movers are not the only thing President Trump needs to worry about. He may have messed with the wrong Texan. Enter John Cornyn. Maybe they think I'm just going to give up or, you know, go along. But they are mistaken. The outgoing Republican senator from Texas, the man who could have been majority leader, is the reason why the President cannot get Todd Blanch confirmed as Attorney General. Maybe Thom Tillis would say the same thing, but John Cornyn is in the lead here. These are the two YOLO senators who have nothing to lose. Cornyn saying less than 24 hours before a critical committee vote for Blanche to become full on Attorney general, that he is not prepared to support this confirmation until he gets paper. He wants it in writing that there is no anti weaponization fund. And this is where we start with our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shan Zaino is with us, her Democratic analyst democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. And Katie Frost is back, Republican strategist, political director at the American Principles Project. Great to see you ladies both and thank you for being with us. Jeannie, I don't know if you've ever been stuck on these people. They'll drive you around all day. If you don't and they slam on the brakes, everybody goes falling down. Is this not the bipartisan move that the president needs to make right now?
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah, you know, infrastructure is always popular. But Joe, what is a U train? That is an aerotrain. I'm confused by that.
Joe Matthew
I don't know that.
Jeannie Shan Zaino
So I don't know. But I'm with Charlie Pella all the way. I. Charlie is the best. So if Charlie says we go to Logan, we go to Logan and they keep the people movers at Dallas.
Joe Matthew
All right, fine. Done. How do you make Todd Blanch Attorney General while you're out of the president has the airport figured out. I think.
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah. That he's got a tougher job with Todd Blanche. No. You know, so what I understand now is the meeting they were supposed to have today which was supposed to wrap this thing up because we know that the committee needs to know by 4 o' clock if the markup is on for tomorrow has now been canceled. And John Cornyn said seems to be telling reporters on the Hill at this moment that the doj, Todd Blanche have not done enough to assuage his concerns about this $1.8 billion fund and the fact that it is clearly an unofficial and officially rather dead. And so we also, I understand, have Todd Blanche on the Hill right now. So I don't know, Joe, maybe this goes forward, this meeting and they get what they want. But we are down to the wire now because they need to know by 4:00'. Clock. And I think the ball is now in TOD and the DOJ's court. Do they put this in writing or not?
4imprint Announcer
Yep.
Joe Matthew
You know, Katie's got Hartfield Jackson down there. You get on that tram. I've spent more time on that tram than the Amtrak to New York. I'm riding around how many terminals are in this thing? Weigh in if you want, Katie. But I'm wondering what would keep the DOJ from presenting this in writing, if nothing other than the president?
Katie Frost
Well, I mean, you have a bunch of attorneys in a room, so they're going to make sure and be very careful what they put in writing. But look, this meeting needs to go forward and obviously they want to move the nomination and hopefully it'll be more efficient to move the nomination through the Senate than the people movers are at Dulles. I say this, I'm a Reagan girl. That's my airport of choice for D.C. but yes, I was pretty much raised at Hartsville Jackson. So whenever people complain about their airports, like we have the busiest airport in the world in Atlanta, and we still figure out a way to make it efficient, once you learn the map, it's super easy. My record is seven minutes from the curb to the Jetway. So Atlanta's greatest.
Joe Matthew
I need a lesson. Take the take Katie, through the air, the old people, you know, we still call it National Airport, but that's a whole other conversation I want to ask you about. Jay Clayton. This is interesting. He got the keys, Jeannie. And maybe we shouldn't be surprised. It was a party line vote 5147. But now there's talk of delaying his swearing in. If we believe the reporting by Politico Bill Pulte, this was the acting the mortgage. The housing guy is urging the president to delay Clayton swearing in or at least try to stay in the job longer so he can finish the job of firing people or I guess reorganizing the department. He's laid off a significant number of folks in the intelligence community, Jeannie. Should he be allowed to continue?
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Well, it's really up to the president and when this swearing in occurs, you know, and that political story was just fascinating. They're talking about this bromance between Donald Trump and Bill Pulte, which we know has been going on for a long time, and that Bill Pulte really wants to stay there so he can finish the job that Donald Trump gave him, which includes the firings that you mentioned, these social media posts declassifying material. And even when Clayton is sworn in, we are hearing that Bill Pulte doesn't want to go too far, and I don't think he's going to. He also would like a cabinet position at some point, so he's angling for that. And he is the sort of darling of the MAGA right at this point. And so I don't think he's going anywhere. But what's fascinating in both of these nominations, Joe, is the fact that it is the 2020 election that has sort of held up, certainly still holding up blanches, and made it difficult for Clayton to get his nomination forward. So we are still talking about an election six years ago and that is still impacting these nominees for the president.
Joe Matthew
Yeah. It's kind of wild to think, is there, is there a cabinet position for Bill Pulte? You can imagine, Katie. What are they keeping him on ice for?
Katie Frost
Well, it'll be interesting to see because it's not uncommon that you see people there's some turnover after a midterm election that's not to be unexpected. We've already seen two members of the Cabinet leave for various reasons, and I would issue three, and I would anticipate potentially a couple more after the midterms. So we'll have to see. But if you think about it from a perspective of being a businessman, I understand why Pulte would want to finish the job, so to speak. He goes, look, I came in here, I'm reorganizing this agency and I want to finish what I started. And when you realize that the Director of National Intelligence's job is to oversee 18 intelligence agencies, I'm sure there are plenty of redundancies there that could definitely be eliminated, and that's what he's been focused on. But let's pay attention. Who wants to go back home to their state that's currently in the administration, who potentially sees maybe a Senate opening or a gubernatorial race they want to run for and leave the Cabinet, then that might be an opportunity for Pulte to slot right in. He already has the relationship with the president. He already has relationships with other cabinet members. It would be an obvious choice just
Joe Matthew
keeping him in the orbit. Katie, that makes a lot of sense. How about Chief of Staff Jeannie Suzy Wiles not to be around forever. And this post, post midterm world that the president will be living in, I don't know. I could envision this. How about you?
Jeannie Shan Zaino
I could certainly envision it, particularly after the midterm election. I don't think it would be, I don't think it makes much sense to begin with, but I could see it after the midterm election. But let's remember, you know, Bill Pulte is in there, as Katie mentioned, rightly so. Eighteen intelligence agencies and zero intelligence experience. And that is the real concern for all of us. At a time when the United States is at war, he wants to finish a job that deals with an election six years ago and reorganizations and firing. And we are in war. And the president needs the best intelligence. He doesn't need somebody who's going to tell him what he wants to hear. He needs to hear the truth. And he needs it from somebody with extreme experience and somebody with a background in intelligence. Bill Pulte has none of that. He is a friend of Donald Trump's. He has engendered himself to Donald Trump, certainly, But that doesn't make you qualified to lead U.S. intelligence.
Joe Matthew
Well, he's certainly a loyalist and we'll see what comes of this. You guys are great. I'll meet you both at the airport. We've got a lot to figure out here. The president will be talking about Dallas coming up at the 3pm Eastern. That's Katie Frost, our Republican strategist, Jeannie Shan Zaino, our Democratic strategist and Bloomberg Politics contributors. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com
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Date: July 29, 2026
Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg) with Kailey Leinz
Key Guests: Becca Wasser (Defense Analyst, Bloomberg Economics), John Bozzella (CEO, Alliance for Automotive Innovation), Charlie Pellet, Jeannie Shan Zaino, Katie Frost
This episode dives deep into the rapid escalation of hostilities between the United States and Iran, following a major attempted missile attack by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) on US bases in the Middle East. The hosts outline the political, military, and economic fallout—including oil price surges, market volatility, and implications for US alliances and domestic industries. President Trump's hardline promise to "beat the effing s--- out of them" underscores the administration's hawkish response.
The latter half transitions to domestic economic impacts, focusing on the auto industry, trade protectionism, and ongoing wrangling in Washington over trade, intelligence appointments, and infrastructure.
Attempted Missile Attack:
Saudi Arabia’s Increasing Involvement:
Conflict Expansion:
Escalation Scenarios:
“We’re going to beat the effing s--- out of them.” ([03:48])
Auto Industry’s Surprising Strength:
“There’s one word to describe it, and it’s resiliency. I think the companies are resilient. I think the customer is resilient.” ([14:52])
Trends in Vehicle Sales:
“There is… a downward trend in the sale of ICE vehicles and an upward trend in the sale of hybrids... Hybrid is what is filling the gap.” ([16:04])
China & Automotive National Security:
Discussion of bipartisan legislation to block Chinese-made vehicles, motivated by concerns over surveillance and Chinese Communist Party influence ([16:39]).
Senator Alyssa Slotkin (clip):
“You can’t have a serious influence from the Chinese Communist Party in what you do in America… Those cars are driving surveillance collectors.” ([16:57])
Bozzella explains regulatory options and waivers for companies like Volvo and Mercedes, based on ownership and connected vehicle tech ([17:43]).
Policy aims to prevent future loopholes and secure “Fortress North America” ([19:59], [20:54]).
USMCA’s Critical Role:
“Think of it not just as a trade agreement. Think about it as a competitiveness platform.” ([20:54])
Dulles Airport Renovation:
Attorney General Confirmation Drama:
“You have a bunch of attorneys in a room, so they’re going to make sure and be very careful what they put in writing.” ([30:53])
Jay Clayton as Director of National Intelligence:
“We are in war. And the president needs the best intelligence. He doesn’t need somebody who’s going to tell him what he wants to hear...” ([35:14])
Becca Wasser on escalation:
On USMCA’s significance:
On airport nostalgia and innovation:
On political appointments and loyalty:
This episode vividly chronicles a moment of geopolitical peril, as the US and Iran edge closer to direct, protracted conflict with regional and economic ramifications. The rapid military developments trigger urgent conversations in Washington—over energy prices, the future of the auto industry, and America’s industrial security—with trade policy, domestic competitiveness, and personnel decisions tightly interwoven. The hosts’ style is urgent, sometimes wry, always bracingly direct—with memorable quotes from both analysts and those at the heart of the news.
Listeners leave with a nuanced grasp of how global events shake markets, color policy debates, and reveal both the strengths and vulnerabilities of American industries and institutions.