Trump Sets Five Days for Iran Talks

Summary

Balance of Power — "Trump Sets Five Days for Iran Talks" (March 23, 2026)
Bloomberg | Hosted by Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz

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Episode Overview

This episode of "Balance of Power" centers on President Donald Trump’s announcement of a five-day pause before potential U.S. strikes against Iranian power infrastructure, in exchange for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The hosts and a lineup of political, diplomatic, and security experts analyze the credibility, motivations, and possible outcomes of these purported negotiations, set against sharply conflicting narratives from Washington and Tehran—and amid volatile global energy and financial markets. The episode also intertwines the ongoing U.S. government partial shutdown and debates about funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Five-Day Ultimatum and Conflicting Narratives

[00:55–06:10]

• Trump’s Announcement: President Trump claims "progress" in back-channel talks led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and grants a five-day extension on his threat to attack Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.
  • Trump quote "[Iran] want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal too. We're going to get together today by probably phone because it's very hard to find a country. It's very hard for them to get out, I guess." — President Trump [01:34]
• Iran Denies Talks: Iranian officials, particularly the Speaker of Parliament, insist no such negotiations are happening. They accuse the U.S. administration of "fake news" to manipulate energy markets.
• White House Correspondent Input:
  • Jeff Mason underscores the uncertainty:
    • "I feel like there’s as many things that we don't know as we do...him saying, we would like a deal, I think is significant. That is...different from what he was saying as late as last week when he said, I don't want a ceasefire." — Jeff Mason [02:22]
  • Jeff highlights a shift in tone from Trump and questions whether he's sufficiently aware of the war’s impact on Iran’s capacity for talks.
  • "He changes his mind a lot...you just never know if this is going to last." — Jeff Mason [04:34]

Notable Quote:

• "This fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets." — Paraphrasing Iranian Speaker of Parliament [03:16]

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2. Market Implications and the Role of Diplomacy

[03:39–06:10, 10:19–14:41]

• Market Moves:
  • U.S. political and military developments swiftly impact global oil prices—Brent crude drops nearly 9% on signs of a diplomatic off-ramp.
• Analysis:
  • Pressure on Trump grows as U.S. economic indicators (e.g., gasoline prices, consumer sentiment) deteriorate due to the conflict.
  • "It seems to be having an influence over his desire to perhaps now find an off ramp." — Jeff Mason [03:39]
• Shipping Bottlenecks:
  • Anya Manuel (Aspen Strategy Group) warns that even if the Strait reopens, it may take weeks to resume oil tanker traffic, with insurance costs and spot markets unsettled for months.

Notable Quotes:

• "How fast can you really reopen the Straits of Hormuz? It’s probably weeks until you can get some tankers through there…. For spot markets on these tankers to return to normal and insurance rates to return to normal, that might take much longer, probably months." — Anya Manuel [10:47]

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3. Complexities of Negotiation: Iranian, Israeli, and U.S. Agendas

[06:45–12:40, 34:43–38:04]

• Who's in Charge?
  • Manuel identifies confusion regarding legitimate Iranian interlocutors:
    -Key Iranian figures have been killed, sidelined, or lack real power, making a deal difficult to implement.
  • "Even if talks are going on, who are they talking to? Parliament has [emerged] as a power broker…but he said he's not the one." — Anya Manuel [06:45]
• Israel as Third Party:
  • Israel’s goals run parallel but are not identical to the U.S.; Israel pursues decapitation of Iranian leadership and regime change, which the U.S. sees as less feasible.
  • "If you do see real regime change in Iran, that could be months to a year out." — Anya Manuel [08:45]
• Possible Retaliation:
  • Any U.S. strike on Iranian infrastructure could provoke Iranian attacks on regional energy assets—e.g., Qatar LNG attacks.

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4. Geopolitical and Economic Risks: The Strait of Hormuz

[11:26–12:40, 38:04–39:26]

• Strategic Chokepoint: Closing the Strait is seen as Iran’s "trump card." Even with a diplomatic deal, Iran’s leverage may persist if it retains the ability to close the Strait at will.
  • "Everyone who has studied conflict in the Middle East knew that this was Iran’s trump card and that closing the Straits…is the first thing [they] would do." — Anya Manuel [12:05]
• Long-Term Global Worries:
  • Even with successful diplomacy, shippers may remain hesitant, knowing Iran can repeat such actions.

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5. China’s Perspective and Global Power Dynamics

[13:29–14:41]

• China Pursues Workarounds:
  • Largely dependent on Hormuz traffic, China is both negatively impacted and positioning itself as a stabilizer—using the crisis to increase its leverage, especially with strategic materials.
  • "China is also winning from this conflict…80% of global tungsten, a key ingredient to all these munitions, comes from China. So this is giving the Chinese even more leverage." — Anya Manuel [13:54]

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6. U.S. Domestic Fallout — DHS Shutdown, ICE, and Political Messaging

[24:32–28:30, 39:26–44:12]

• Government Shutdown:
  • The administration refuses a Senate deal to partially reopen DHS funding (excluding ICE), insisting on further reforms and leveraging the issue in political messaging.
  • "ICE was my idea…I called, first person I called was Tom Holman. I said, what do you think? He said, I think it’s great." — President Trump [25:35]
• ICE Replacement for TSA:
  • The idea reportedly surfaced from a Fox News show caller and lacks operational feasibility.
  • "On Tom Holman's own estimation, ICE agents are not at all trained or prepared to fill in for TSA agents." — Jeannie Shan Zaino [26:15]

Notable Moment:

• Trump’s "paperclip" metaphor ("182 years ago, a man discovered the paperclip...ICE was my idea.") confusingly likens his vision for ICE to a simple, ingenious invention—a moment the panel finds baffling and emblematic.

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7. Political Panel: Blame, Strategy, and Electoral Consequences

[19:14–22:51, 39:54–44:12]

• Political Stakes:
  • Rick Davis: Trump hoped for a rapid win, but the conflict has damaged consumer confidence and the GOP's electoral prospects.
    • "The president’s got himself stuck in a bit of a quagmire...future expectations are way down. It is historically the lowest [Consumer Sentiment] since 1978." — Rick Davis [19:14]
  • Jeannie Shan Zaino: Americans want troops home and economic normalcy, not just messaging shifts.
• Congress’s Role — or Absence:
  • Former Rep. Jane Harman coins "Cacao—Congress Always Chickens Out," lamenting congressional abdication of war powers and failure to resolve hard issues like the shutdown and FISA renewal.

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8. Broader Policy and Governance Concerns

[36:12–44:12]

• Funding & Soft Power:
  • Concerns about the bloated defense budget and the atrophy of U.S. "soft power."
• International Law and Shared Control:
  • Questions about what form a U.S.-Iran strait-sharing arrangement could legally take.
    • "This is international water.…I would think some international group would have to say this makes some sense." — Jane Harman [37:26]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• "He changes his mind a lot...you just never know if this is going to last or." — Jeff Mason [04:34]
• “If there's no deal in five days...we will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. What would this market look like if that happened?” — Joe Matthew to Anya Manuel [12:40]
• "This is mutually assured destruction on people's electricity and energy infrastructure." — Anya Manuel [12:56]
• "This fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets." — (Paraphrasing) Kailey Leinz citing Iranian Parliament Speaker [03:16]
• "ICE was my idea...182 years ago, a man discovered the paperclip." — President Trump [25:35]
• "How about 'Cacao'? Congress Always Chickens Out." — Jane Harman [33:26]
• "The business model...has morphed into blame the other side. And if we're only playing the blame game, we're going to get nowhere." — Jane Harman [41:03]

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Approximate Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s Statement & Iran Talks Announced: [00:55–03:16]
• Market Reactions & White House Change in Tone: [03:16–06:10]
• Nature of Negotiations & Iranian Power Structure: [06:45–08:45]
• Role of Israel and Risk of Broader Escalation: [08:45–10:19]
• Energy Markets and Shipping Concerns: [10:47–12:40]
• Panel Discussion: Political Implications: [19:14–22:51]
• DHS Shutdown, ICE, TSA, and Metaphorical Paperclips: [24:32–28:30]
• Former Rep. Jane Harman Interviews: [33:26–44:12]

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Tone and Style

Throughout the episode, the dialogue is at once analytical, skeptical, and laced with a sense of frustration at unclear signals, the slow pace of diplomacy, and the lack of clear congressional action. A sense of worry pervades discussions about war escalation, energy disruption, and domestic political fallout. Moments of humor and sarcasm (such as Trump’s paperclip analogy or Harman's "Cacao") relieve, but also highlight, the underlying gravity of the issues discussed.

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Summary Prepared For Listeners Seeking a Complete Picture This episode is essential listening for anyone navigating the intersection of U.S. foreign policy, energy markets, and domestic politics during a volatile geopolitical moment. The hosts and guests provide layered analysis and real-time reactions to rapid developments—grounded in a range of informed perspectives, but with an undercurrent of frustration at the limits of official transparency.

Transcript

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[Kailey Leinz]

here in Washington, where President Trump departed earlier today, he is now in Memphis, in fact, speaking at this hour at an event focus domestically on crime. Specifically, though, he used the opportunity to speak with the media once again about the ongoing war with Iran. And of course, the latest developments from him today, a five day pause or extension of a deadline for the US to hit power and energy infrastructure in exchange for the Strait of Hormuz being open. He cited progress with talks that apparently started this weekend between his envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian counterparts. Though Iran contends no such talks are happening, suggesting perhaps they are not looking for a deal. The president is saying the opposite.

[President Donald Trump]

They want very much to make a deal. We'd like to make a deal too. We're going to get together today by probably phone because it's very hard to find a country. It's very hard for them to get out, I guess. But we'll at some point very, very soon meet.

[Joe Matthew]

This is where we start our conversation with Jeff Mason, Bloomberg White House correspondent, who's with us live in studio here. Jeff, it's great to have you. The president does not want to specify who are in touch with. We're not going to get a readout presumably from these meetings that would be considered normal at a time like this. He did suggest that Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff are back at it. But what else do we know about the nature of these negotiations?

[Jeff Mason]

I feel like there's as many things that we don't know as we do, but the right person, I mean the source right here is President Trump and what he laid out in that Q and A with reporters, which was actually in Florida. It wasn't here in D.C. he spent the weekend in Florida.

[Joe Matthew]

That's right.

[Jeff Mason]

Was, was telling for a couple different reasons. I mean, number one, we talked about this in the previous hour, him saying, we would like a deal, I think is significant. That is a separate or that is different from what he was saying as late as last week when he said, I don't want a ceasefire. So his willingness or openness to moving towards a deal is a shift. Then it was also sort of telling to me that he said, we need to do this by phone because it's hard for them to get out. I guess. I mean, I guess there's a little bit of a, I don't know, suggestion that he's not paying attention to the impact that the war that he launched is having on the country that he's trying to have talks with.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and so when we consider what the country itself is saying, the Iranian speaker of Parliament is suggesting that there is no talks happening. And he says specifically that this fake news is intended to manipulate financial and oil markets. And I wonder to what extent, as you talk about this kind of tonal shift from President Trump on the idea that he wants a deal, how much of that is, in fact, market driven?

[Jeff Mason]

I mean, it's. I think it's very clear that the market is playing a role in terms of impacting the President's sense of pressure to get something done. And sometimes he dismisses that. Other times he doesn't. Certainly, this is someone who said just as recently as, again last week, because he's been talking about this a lot, that before the war started, he was very pleased with where the market was. He was pleased with where gasoline prices were, and trying to project that all of that is going to come back as soon as this war is over. But he had to do the war because there was this window and he felt convinced that it was the right thing to do. Now, as the impacts of those strikes and of this war continue and get even worse for him in terms of the economy and politically, it seems to be having an influence over his desire to perhaps now find an off ramp. But the last thing I would just sneak into that long answer is he changes his mind a lot.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, right.

[Jeff Mason]

So you just never know if this is going to last or.

[Joe Matthew]

I'm just looking at the timeline here. Jeff, you were, you were at the big party on Saturday night. I think when this post went out, it was, what, 7:45pm Everyone in Washington's in white tie at the gridiron. And he writes, if Iran doesn't fully open without threat, the strait of four moves within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the US will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. So that was almost 8 o' clock at night, if my military time is right here. Looking at the post, there were talks that day, according to what he just told folks in the room, as he's talking about two days of progress here. So presumably he sent that post while Witkoff and Kushner were negotiating with the Iranians or even after the session or not.

[Jeff Mason]

And we just don't know. I mean, he did say today there have been two days of talks. He could be including today's one of those, even though he said that they were going to talk later today. Maybe he's including that in his math. My suspicion is that that social media post that you're referencing, Joe, led to some quite a bit of reaction from allies, from US Friends and from people in the region. So if, in fact, I mean, if you if your conjecture is right, and he, he sent that at the same time the talks were actually happening, that's fascinating, too, but it also, it doesn't really square with him saying we would like to have a deal.

[Kailey Leinz]

All right, Jeff Mason, appreciate you joining us. Of course, Washington correspondent for us here, Jeff, at Bloomberg. And as Jeff said, there are a lot of questions still unanswered. We perhaps don't know as much as we know at this point. So let's turn for more analysis now to Anya Emanuel, who's joining us. She's executive director of the Aspen Strategy Group here with us on Bloomberg and radio. Anya, thank you for being here. On balance of power as we see the narrative that is being put out by President Trump today versus what Iran is saying, which is that no talks are happening, which one right now are you most likely to believe?

[Anya Emanuel]

Happy to be with you. And I can't speculate on that one. There's clearly a deal to be cut here. It's just a little unclear who in Iran you're going to cut it with. So even if talks are going on, who are they talking to? Parliament has emerging as a power broker, but he said he's not the one. The new supreme leader still hasn't been seen in public. They're doing voice. The foreign minister never had any real power. And Larajani, who did have some real power and was seen as a pragmatist, if not a moderate. The Israelis killed him last week. So, so hard to see who in Iran has the authority to cut a deal if one were to be had.

[Joe Matthew]

President tried to make the point earlier that because we've damaged their communications to such an extent in Iran that Maybe not everybody knows that we're in talks with one party versus another, with competing factions here. I don't know if you buy into that, Anya, but wouldn't this administration have to at some point have tandem negotiations with the secular and religious leadership?

[Anya Emanuel]

I think to bring this to a conclusion, you would need both. There's another piece going on here which apparently at the lower level, there's in Iran, there's very low morale. Some people from the IRGC not wanting to come to work normal, really discouraged because of this ongoing bombing. So I think there are people in Iran who are going to want to make a deal and let's just all hope we get there soon.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so to make a deal. I just wonder, Anya, if we should be thinking about this as just a deal through the lens of US And Iranian negotiators. Israel is also party to this conflict. They have been acting in tandem with the United States, as you mentioned, it's Israel who has been leading in large part the decapitation effort of major parts of the Iranian leadership. How are they going to play a role here? Are they as likely to want to reach some kind of diplomatic off ramp? Is the US at this point?

[Anya Emanuel]

Yeah. So far we've seen Israel and the US have parallel but not identical goals for this war, depending on who you're listening to. On the US Side, we're hearing the US Seeks to degrade Iran's military ability to threaten us or the region that is achievable. Regime change with a regime that comes out better than what we've had before is much more difficult and frankly, probably happen right away. If you do see real regime change in Iran, that could be months to a year out. So slightly divergent views here on what Israel and the United States want.

[Joe Matthew]

Anya, bringing us the view again from Aspen Strategy Group. And it's interesting how little we know at this moment. Kaylee, we woke up to some pretty major breaking news, and we've heard from the Commander in Chief twice today, yet we're still asking the same questions we were this morning.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and in part, we're asking those questions because what the Commander in Chief is saying is not necessarily tracking with the Iranian talking points at this point, which are that we are not at this time seeking a deal. We are not speaking with you and Iran, of course, suggesting that what the president is trying to do here is in response to energy markets. They refer to this once again, as we have seen frequently throughout this conflict, as this being psychological warfare, something that is intended to drive energy prices down and Whether or not that was the intent, it is the outcome we are seeing today. With oil prices down about 9% on both Brent and WTI, Brent is actually getting closer and closer to breaking below that $100 a barrel level.

[Joe Matthew]

Right. About that. This is interesting. And we're watching the gains start to pick up again. The s and P500 is up 80 points now, still a far cry from what we saw earlier. But investors are trying to get their heads around both sides of this story that we're trying to illuminate here with Anya. Anya, how long does the President have before he needs to detail this a bit more carefully for the markets to understand? Because these questions will need to be answered.

[Anya Emanuel]

Yeah, as you said, the markets are in turmoil. I used to be a director of a shipping company, and of course, the question on everyone's mind is how fast can you really reopen the Straits of Hormuz? It's probably weeks until you can get some tankers through there. This is a very difficult military operation. We don't have a lot of allies willing to go in with us now. So let's say you get some tankers through in the next week or a couple of weeks. Great. But for spot markets on these tankers to return to normal and insurance rates to return to normal, that might take much longer, probably months.

[Kailey Leinz]

Okay, so let's talk about that commercial shipping aspect and the control Iran has been able to exercise around the Strait of Hormuz. There have been a number of military of geopolitical strategists who have been on the show with Joe and I suggesting so long as Iran has shown it's able to maintain that control, Iran will come out the winner ultimately of this conflict. Even if we are to see a diplomatic off ramp specifically targeting the nuclear program, as President Trump suggested, the idea that Iran is willing to abandon efforts around a nuclear weapon and relinquish existing nuclear material if, if we're still left in a world in which Iran effectively can decide to choke off the Strait at any point, is that actually a, a good outcome for the global economy?

[Anya Emanuel]

I agree with that worry, and it's. And exactly as you said, Kayleigh, it's deeply unclear where this goes. You've seen the Houthis, a far less military power than Iran, wreaking a lot of havoc in the Red Sea. And so this is something that everyone who has studied conflict in the Middle east knew that this was Iran's trump card and that closing the Straits of Hormuz is the first thing they would do if really they were pushed, and you're seeing that. And it is something that continues possibly for a long time. If the strike continues in this region, I think it's a real worry.

[Joe Matthew]

If there's no deal. If there's no deal in five days, Anya, we go back to the original threat. We will hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first. What would this market look like if that happened?

[Anya Emanuel]

Look, the threats by the United States to hit power plants and others in Iran is probably credible and to be taken seriously. But Iran also has a vote here, and you've already seen by their attacks on Qatar, which took out 17% of LNG capacity, that they can just retaliate right back. So this is mutually assured destruction on people's electricity and energy infrastructure. And so I hope very much that we're going to get to a deal before any of that happens.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, and when we consider that energy infrastructure, just the flow of energy out of this region, President Trump has repeatedly said, Anya, that we don't actually need the oil and natural gas coming out of the Middle east, that trying to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is more a favor for other countries like China. How do you think the Chinese are watching these developments right now? Do you. Do you think that they buy it, or are they still actively pursuing workarounds to try to make sure that their energy flows do not get cut off?

[Anya Emanuel]

Yeah, they are definitely pursuing workarounds. As you all know, 80 to 90% of the oil and gas that comes through the Straits of Hormuz goes to Asia. Asia deeply impacted by this. This has been hard on China. The oil shock is real. China has had to absorb some of the price shock the government and not pass it through. But China is also winning from this conflict, so they're now able to position themselves as the actor of stability. That's what they're telling the Global South. And by the way, they give. It gives the China even more materials leverage than they originally had. For example, 80% of global tungsten, which is a key ingredient to all of these munitions that are being fired, comes China. So this is giving the Chinese even more leverage.

[Joe Matthew]

You said you ran a shipping company. Anya, in our minute or so that we have remaining, what are these crews going through out there? They've been bobbing around for three weeks, I think, at some point, do they have supplies to.

[President Donald Trump]

They have food.

[Joe Matthew]

I can only imagine morale on board.

[Anya Emanuel]

Yeah. I did not run a shipping company. I was on the board. A director of a shipping company. This is very dangerous and people don't like to put their crews in danger. They're not armed. These are civilians. And so you really have to have nearly 100% security. You know, you heard the president saying a few days ago, well, they should

[Kailey Leinz]

just be more courageous.

[Anya Emanuel]

But that's not no in their right mind is going to put them away in a way that they would be if they were running.

[Joe Matthew]

Anya Manuel, thank you so much. I think we might have lost that connection there. Aspen Strategy Group. She's directed a shipping company. Either way, fascinating conversation and great to have Anya as part of our conversation. The panel is up next. I can't wait to hear what Rick and Jeannie have to think about all of this. We've had more headlines in the first half of the day than sometimes we'll get in a week. Alongside Kailey Leinz, I'm Joe Matthew. Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Kailey Leinz]

The speaker of Iran's parliament suggesting that President Trump's about face today suggesting that talks with Iran have made such progress that he's postponing for five days. Attacks, strikes on Iranian power and energy infrastructure, of course, are fake news, in the words of the speaker of Parliament, intended to manipulate financial and oil markets. And that is the question we have here on balance of power today, Joe, is whether or not this is actually substantive progress toward a diplomatic off ramp in a conflict that has lasted for more than three weeks now. Or if this is potentially signaling to financial markets that one could say we're getting yippee, specifically in oil and in the bond market around the potential supply and inflationary shocks emanating from this, a signal that people should cool off for now.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, markets were already there, of course, and we recall the post that the president put forth. It was at 7:45pm Eastern time Saturday at which he said America would hit and obliterate their various power plants, starting with the biggest one first, if the Strait of Hormuzzi was not open without threat within 48 hours from this exact point in time, the timeline the president has put forth today would suggest that talks were already underway when he posted that. So it's a bit curious as we try to unpack exactly what's taken place since Saturday. And it's where we begin with our political panel. Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeannie Shann Zaino are with us coming off the weekend. Rick, our Republican strategist and partner at Stonehenge Court Capital. Jeannie is democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Guys, we've seen the markets pull back well in terms of stocks from their highs. In terms of oil, we've come off of our lows of the session because of the confusion that's been surrounding this story. Rick, we're asking everybody the same question here today. What do you believe?

[Rick Davis]

Look, I mean I look at everything, you know, from a political lens. At first I believe that the president's got himself stuck in a, a bit of a quagmire. I think what he had hoped for was a quick win resuscitate his flagging political ratings in advance of a very important midterm election for him. And it's turned out to be just the opposite. You know, my addiction to the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a true poll of how people feel and future expectations are way down. It is the index at large is a historically the lowest it's been since 1978. Well, we remember what that election cycle was. Jimmy Carter going running for reelection in the May lays and and and whatnot. That Ronald Reagan won a landslide victory. If you compare that to the midterms coming up, most Republicans I now talk to tell me they are now marking at least 20 seat loss in the House of Representatives. So this president's got a lot of work to dig himself out of this one.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so I guess, Jeannie, to bring you in here. Do you think that this is a step toward succeeding? If the president is now pursuing diplomacy, a deal of some kind, when he was suggesting previously that what the US Was thinking was outright military victory, if he's going to be able to sell that message to the American people,

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

it's hard to tell if the American people will buy the messaging. What they're going to want to see is their troops come home, their lives improved, both economically and otherwise. And that's really what the president has got to deliver on. And that's why I think we're in a difficult situation as Americans and people around the world listening to Donald Trump, because in talking about going to the negotiating table and talking about stepping back and de escalating, which is what this sounds like, that absolutely makes sense. It's the best of the worst options available to him now, given where we are today. But of course, it's hard to know what his motivation is. You know, a lot of speculation as you were talking about, that this was to calm the markets. Other people suggesting we've been here before. Twice now in the last year, the United States has told Iran that we're going to negotiate, and then we've hit them really, really hard. And so it would be no surprise to any of us if Iran said we don't want to negotiate at this point point. But I think all of us hope that both sides have now come to a point where they want to get to the table and they don't want to engage in this anymore. But of course, that's a lot of hope and we have very little evidence until we get that from our own government.

[Joe Matthew]

President speaking a bit earlier in Memphis, I'd like to go back to what he said, knowing that we've been talking to Iran, at least through back channels for a long time. And people wonder, well, what makes this different? Listen to what he said a short time ago in Memphis.

[President Donald Trump]

Iran, we've been negotiating for a long time, and this time they mean business. And it's only because of the great job that our military did is the reason they mean business. They want to settle and we're going to get it done. I hope now Iran has one more opportunity to end its threats to America and our allies. And we hope they take it. Either way, America and the entire world will soon be much safer.

[Joe Matthew]

Rick Davis, how do you interpret that? This time they mean business. Is that a call he presumably got from Jared Kushner or Steve Witkoff after they sat down with the Iranians, or is he projecting?

[Rick Davis]

You know, it's so hard to tell, you know, the difference between sort of the Trump negotiating style, which is to negotiate both ends of the spectrum. He talks as much about what the Iranians think as he does himself, and we have no idea if the Iranians are thinking those same things. So he sets up the predicate that he knows exactly what's going on in Iran. And I think we've heard so much reporting that we don't even know who he's negotiating with. You know, was it the speaker? Is it the Foreign minister? Is it somebody else? Have you talked to the Ayatollah? No, we haven't. So I think we're in the earliest stages of a maybe wind down of hostilities, although I think there's someone else in this negotiation that we haven't heard anything about, and that's Israel. Israel's been hammering their targets last night in Iran. And I can't imagine a scenario where Iran is going to cut a deal with us and leave and leave Israel hanging out there to do whatever they want to do.

[Joe Matthew]

So I think.

[Rick Davis]

I think we've got a long road to hoe. If we get to a point where we have secession of hostilities, Iran has the opportunity to retaliate. They don't have much of an offensive strike capability, but they can retaliate and they can close the strait. And we have now learned that that economic impact could have the same potential impact as the bombs that we drop.

[Kailey Leinz]

Yeah, it's incredible to consider, and perhaps it is with the economic impact in mind that President Trump is now pursuing a deal at, in this case, at least in terms of what he's saying publicly. Where President Trump seems less willing, though, to accept a deal at this time is in regard to reopening the Department of Homeland Security. As it was reported this weekend, the Senate Majority Leader, John Thune went to the president with a deal that would see Department of Homeland Security ex ICE funded, so paychecks for things like TSA agents. As we're seeing lines at the airports around the country getting longer and longer, President Trump said no, he wants to see the fight continue and not have that deal handed down in part to Democrats, who of course are demanding changes to ICE reforms, to ICE that they wouldn't actually have gotten if this deal were to be accepted. But instead, what the President is saying is continue to fight on the funding front. Meanwhile, I will be deploying ICE to handle the situations at the airport, which we have seen at some dozen 13 airports across the country today. And the president talked more about that idea when departing Florida earlier today.

[President Donald Trump]

182 years ago, a man discovered the paperclip. It was so simple. And everybody that looked at it said, why didn't I think of that? Ice was my idea. I called, first person I called was Tom Holman. I said, what do you think? He said, I think it's great. Then I saw today there was some masks on. I didn't think the masks were appropriate. I put out a statement and I asked him, would it be possible to take off the mask because they should wear a mask when they're dealing with the murderers and the thugs left and let into our country.

[Kailey Leinz]

What do you make of this metaphorical paperclip? Jeannie

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

wow, it's hard for me to wrap my head around this one, Kelly. But you know, one thing I this entire idea of Donald Trump pitching ICE and actually sending them into the airports was there is a lot of reporting that this idea came not from Donald Trump, but from a woman named Linda from Arizona who called a Fox News radio show, the Clay Travis and Buck Sexton show, and then Trey Cloud, Clay Travis Rather went on Fox News and said that's a brilliant idea and pitched on Trump's favorite Fox News show on Friday. And Veal, we got it on Saturday from the from Trump's mouth. And this, I think, just encapsulates where we are. And that that reporting goes to Brian Stelter. But this encapsulates sort of where we are. And by Tom Holman's own estimation on Sunday, ICE agents are not at all trained or prepared to fill in for TSA agents. They can do things like security, they can do other things, and yet they don't have the capacity to fill in. So Donald Trump, LINDA whoever came up with this idea, we'll have to see how this works in practice. But what the president comments today about don't settle, don't settle, I think that's going to make it into a lot of Democratic campaign commercials, because what he's saying is there's a deal between the GOP and the Democrats on reopening DHS and paying these people, and the president would rather talk about voting and transgender athletes.

[Joe Matthew]

Turns out Johan Voller, a Norwegian, received the German and US Patents for the paperclip. It lacked the final full loop of the gem clip, though. That was a much better, more important development, Rick. And I do want to mention that the airport is going to be reopening in New York LaGuardia on time based on what we're hearing From Tom Holman, 2pm local time following the collision there. Rick, we've got about a minute left. What do you think of the president's rhetoric around masking specifically, did he find an opening to reopen DHS beyond this idea of ice in the paperclip? The way that he's talking about this sounds different. Different today.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

I don't know.

[Rick Davis]

Sounds pretty defensive to me. You know, deploying ice into airports with masks on had to be the cause of a lot of phone calls to Donald Trump this morning saying what? Are you out of your mind? The last thing we want to do is terrorize people as they're going to the final four or on, you know, spring break. What is going on here? And I can imagine why he retreated on that and told everybody, take your mask off. At the end of the day, Democrats have the advantage on this. Republicans control government. It's up to the Republicans to get this thing back open and they need to.

[Kailey Leinz]

All right, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, Bloomberg Politics contributors. The both of them, thank you for joining us here.

[Joe Matthew]

Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Matthew]

An important day for the markets here, and I'll be deeply curious to see what happens as we make our way closer to the close. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz in Washington. And we certainly have seen a very different market today than we had last week. But Kelly, we could argue that we're seeing a different market now than we saw this morning with the big gains, the explosive gains in stocks and the rapid pullback that we saw in oil prices, tempered now by some confusion over who is talking to whom and exactly what these talks might lead to.

[Kailey Leinz]

Yeah, of course, President Trump contends that talks began over the weekend between his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and Iranian counterparts that he said made enough progress that it would warranted delaying for five days the deadline to strike Iranian power infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not open. Course, Iran contends no such talks are happening. They suggest that the words from President Trump today are simply market manipulation. Now, we do have some fresh reporting from Axios as Barack reports that Vice President J.D. vance actually spoke with the Israeli prime minister, keeping in mind that is a third party to consider here when it comes to this conflict and a potential end to it. They spoke about efforts to open negotiations with Iran, discussing components of a possible agreement to end the war with Iran. But again, Iran is signaling they are not close to being ready to make such an agreement.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah, this is curious. Market Watch by Dow Jones is now reporting the same polymarket trader who predicted the start of the Iran war is now betting on a ceasefire by next week. I just put that there for what it's worth, because the prediction markets have been playing into this in a very curious way from the beginning here. But look, this pullback is in terms of oil prices is significant. Whether we could actually see a deal this week is something that remains to be seen, Kelly. And where we're watching stocks right now, compared to their highs, you saw a Dow Jones industrial average up well over a thousand points. It's up a little more than 700 now, the S&P 500 up 86 points or 1.3%, pulling back from a stronger gain earlier. We'll see where we are at the close.

[Kailey Leinz]

Yeah, keeping in mind that all of these headlines from President Trump conveniently crossed just before the open. It was a very different story and future story overnight. So let's get into all of this now. Is polymarket, I guess, or at least a trader on polymarket is willing to bet on a cease fire. I wonder if Jane Harmon is willing to bet the same. She of course is former Democratic congresswoman from California, former ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, and also the author of Insanity Defense. Why our failure to confront hard national security problems Makes us less safe. Jane, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. President Trump says talks are happening. Iran says no, they are not. Who do you believe?

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, I have a new word for you. In addition to taco, how about cacao? Congress always chickens out. All those parties you were just mentioning who may or may not be talking to each other do not include Congress and they do not include the American people. Maybe they include our allies, maybe they include Israel, maybe they include a couple of negotiators for the Trump team, but they don't include the folks who should be authorizing or not a continuation of this war. I hope that it will end. I think there are no good hands to play, no good cards that Trump can play. But the least bad cards are to try to stop the military action now. And doing it three ways with Israel too would be a good thing. Not blaming Israel, but including Israel in a decision to stop. I think that would be very welcome.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, that would be awfully important, right? Jane, I'm glad that you're with us right now. We didn't realize this would drop right while you joined us, but indeed Axios is reporting that JD Vance spoke on the phone with Benjamin Netanyahu about components of a possible agreement. What could that call have included? The conventional wisdom so far is that Israel has very different objectives than the US and may not be compelled to stand down at this point in time.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, that is the conventional wisdom, but nothing about this war has been conventional. Israel has a slightly different agenda, which is to seems to me to be destroying all possible proxies of Iran that surround Israel, especially Hezbollah. But nonetheless, a deal, including some agreement by Israel to stand down on that agenda I think would be more powerful and could last longer. I think the our former allies in the region would really welcome it and maybe even Congress would not go on recess and stick until it can formalize something. Let's remember, Joe, that the authorization to use military force does have a 60 day carve out which gives latitude to the President. I think those 60 days are going to expire while Congress is on recess. And you know, hello Congress. Jane to Congress, where are you? This is your responsibility.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so Jane, if we're thinking about Congress here, of course Congress should be potentially is going to be in the position very soon to have to make a decision as to whether or not to send the Pentagon an additional $200 billion in funding in part to prosecute this war, in part to replenish stockpiles of munitions we've been expending throughout the duration of this more than three week long conflict. Is that the time in which we could actually see Congress step up, do you think? It may not be a request so easily granted that the Pentagon and the White House are making.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, the Congress does have the power of the purse. Let's understand that our defense budget is already $1 trillion higher than it's ever been. And the President was proposing another 500 billion Add to that. And I don't know if the 200 is on top of the 500. So he's almost doubling it. And what is this going for? I mean some of us, I chaired recently the Commission on National Defense Strategy and we said that the, the dip. The defense industrial base was weak and needed to be replenished. A lot of this money has to go there. And oh, by the way, one of the things we just destroyed, unfortunately is our soft power by defunding a number of agencies and functions of our government. Soft powers, our diplomacy, soft powers, our development aid. And where's the money going to be to rebuild that because boy, are we going to need that once this, this mistake is ended.

[Joe Matthew]

Jane, you spent a career around diplomacy and I'm wondering what you think of this idea of the President sharing control of the Strait of Hormuz with the new Ayatollah. What type of agreement would govern such action?

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Yeah, stay tuned. Joe. I really don't know. I would think that a lot of countries in the world, in fact most of them would have a stake in this too, when all of a sudden giving some agency to us, if we are a reliable partner, might be something they would entertain. But I, I don't know what the contours are. I would, I would hesitate to say, and this is international water. And you know, sadly the geography is such that Iran easily can get control over it. But it's international water. So I would think some international group would have to say this makes some sense.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, when we consider the Strait of Hormuz and the economic choke point it has become, which Iran is still effectively exercising Control over. Jane. I just wonder if, so long as the Strait of Hormuz can operate in that capacity, in that Iran is able to effectively choke it off when they so choose, if even a diplomatic outcome is not going to be enough to assuage shippers, specifically those operating the vessels, that it's going to maintain safe passage, that it can be safely protected, knowing Iran could make the decision at any moment for that no longer to be the case.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, that's a risk, isn't it? Did we think about that before we started this action, however many days it was three or four weeks ago? I wonder if we did. I wonder if the president was fully considered this or if the team he consulted fully considered this. I mean, saying I have a feeling that the time is right doesn't seem to me to be a very thoughtful, detailed decision about consequences. This is a very serious consequence. And, oh, by the way, Carg island, where there's also conversation we could take it over, is 300 miles away from the Strait of Formulas, not. Not exactly contiguous. And I'm not exactly sure what taking it over now would. Would get us. Plus, except for a high risk that there could be casualties to our military if we put boots on the ground.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, if we can get back to your original premise, which I believe is Congress always chickens out. Jane, what's about to happen, if anything, to dhs? This is a Department of Homeland Security that's about to set a record for its closure. And the president is dispatching ICE agents to airports to back up TSA agents who are not getting paid. Is that leverage to reopen? Or could that, in fact, spoil things for Democrats to the point where we do set a record?

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, unclear, Joe. I mean, the idea of ICE agents maybe unmasked, that's an improvement. In airports, collecting data on the people in lines, data for what is a little scary, as in a lot scary. Should Congress buck the president here and fund ths tsa? You bet it should. And there are proposals in both parties to do this, but I gather the president is holding back the Republican Party from doing it. Should there be reforms to ice? Absolutely. And I think members of Congress would support this. So, hello, Congress. Kaka, don't chicken out. Step up and do the right thing for your constituents. You'll be rewarded if you do this. You'll be punished if you don't.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, so who, Jane, do you expect will ultimately bear the brunt of that punishment? If it's President Trump, who has rejected a deal that a Republican majority leader brought to him, does that actually shift the, the trajectory of blame away from Democrats who obviously were demanding the changes causing this shutdown to the Republican Party as the midterms get closer.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, the problem we're having is that the business model which used to be work together to solve hard problems for the country has morphed into blame the other side. And if we're only playing the blame game, we're going to get nowhere. And yeah, maybe Republicans will be punished more than Democrats, but I'm going to stand in one of those lines later this week. I'm not going to feel great about it. And I'm just saying that I think if I were a member of Congress now, I can't say I missed the job right now. If I were a member of Congress right now, I'd want to be solving this hard problem. There are solutions and just keeping the government closed or this portion of the government closed and making people suffer doesn't leap out as the best option.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, we know that John Thune went to the President to try to end this shutdown yesterday and said he'd had Republican votes to support funding all of DHS except ice. The president said no. How much longer does that mean the department will be closed? Realizing that he wants this tied to the Save America Act.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, I think the Save America act is really unpopular, including with Republicans. I mean, I think absentee ballots back in the day when I was running for Congress were the way Republicans won races. And I don't think Republican governors want their secretaries of state ordered or ordered around by the Trump administration. So I don't think SAVE is going anywhere. And John Thuman, if he has enough votes, should just pass the thing over the president with a veto proof majority and then it done. You know, John Thune Cocko, please do it. And I'm not sure Democrats will agree to his proposal, but there is some proposal I would imagine if they work together that would get a veto proof majority in the Senate. And same thing for Mike Johnson. He seems a little more reticent. But, but hey, you know, if you want to get reelected, you have to be able to accomplish something in your, in your terms.

[Kailey Leinz]

Well, Jane, I know you've repeatedly called out to Congress in your time with us today. I'm not sure if anyone in Congress is going to heed those calls knowing Mike Johnson doesn't just have this challenge. There's also the challenge of FISA renewal. And I ask you as the former ranking member on House Intelligence, how, how difficult this may become in the weeks ahead.

[Bloomberg Host/Announcer]

Well, difficult I think every single thing there is difficult. And I think one of the things that is really painful is the weakness of our intelligence community. Now FISA is a key piece of our ability to keep America safe. FISA needed reform. Over time we did reform it to some extent. But again, caco, Congress has got to get in the game and not just let things expire and then throw up its hands. And we need strong people heading our intelligence community. We have some, we lack others. And you know, as one of the people after 911 who was there and who worked on a bipartisan basis to put our put America in a stronger position, this is absolutely heartbreaking and really reckless.

[Joe Matthew]

Going to have to start making the cacao T shirts next. Jane Harmon it's great to see you. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime [e-mail] Lego Star wars just made the Jump to Hyperspace Introducing the LEGO Smart Brick New Lego Star wars sets with smart bricks inspire your child's imagination, taking their play to uncharted regions of the galaxy with responsive lights, a color recognition scanner, a synthesizer and an accelerometer. Your child's play doesn't just come alive, it allows the LEGO Star Wars Galaxy to play back. May the Force be with you. Shop LEGO Star wars sets now on lego.com or in lego retail stores.

[Kailey Leinz]

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