Trump Taps Kevin Warsh To Lead Federal Reserve

Summary

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Balance of Power – Trump Taps Kevin Warsh To Lead Federal Reserve

Podcast: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)
Date: January 30, 2026
Host: Joe Weisenthal, Tyler Kendall
Key Guests: Michael McKee (Bloomberg), Heather Boushey (Invest in America, former CEA), Matt Terrell (Firehouse Strategies), Jeannie Shan Zaino (Bloomberg Politics), French Hill (Chair, House Financial Services Committee)

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Episode Overview

This high-stakes episode covers President Donald Trump’s decision to nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair—a move expected but layered with controversy, given current tensions around Fed independence, ongoing investigations into outgoing Chair Jay Powell, and the political battle lines shaping up around confirmation. Added to the news cycle is an impending government shutdown, ongoing immigration battles, and heated debates around technology, trade, and tariffs. The episode features in-depth interviews with lawmakers, economists, and strategists to dissect these major policy moments.

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Main Segments & Key Insights

1. Kevin Warsh Tapped for Fed Chair: Reaction and Implications

[01:02]–[05:55]

• Joe Weisenthal breaks the news of Trump’s pick, noting the anticipation and backstory:
  “The headline on the terminal: Trump picks a reinvented Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve. Not everybody’s happy about this pick...” [02:02]

• Michael McKee (Bloomberg) on Warsh’s profile:

  • Warsh has been a contender since Trump’s first term.
  • He holds both central bank experience and a Wall Street pedigree.
  • “He’s an inflation hawk, even though he's gotten more dovish” in recent years, which could appeal to Wall Street but may upset some at the Fed. [02:31]
  • McKee notes bipartisan skepticism, emphasizing that Warsh’s Wall Street and family connections (Stanley Druckenmiller, Ronald Lauder) may surface during Senate confirmation.

• Quote:
  “Warsh has got some qualifications, he's got some strengths, he has some weaknesses. He wants to do a major overhaul of the Fed and it isn't clear how people at the Fed are going to feel about that.” — Michael McKee [02:31]

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2. Political Roadblocks: Confirmation and DOJ Investigation into Jay Powell

[03:31]–[06:56]

• Confirmation delay potential: Thom Tillis is blocking the nomination pending DOJ investigation into Jay Powell.
• McKee’s Outlook:
  “I don’t see this as being any kind of major delay... There’s no indictment... but the President is not wanting to completely back down and kind of let Jay Powell off the hook.” [03:45]
• Alliance Influence: Trump’s connections, including influential donors and old friends, are seen as influential, but not determinative.

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3. Fed Independence Under Threat?—Economist Heather Boushey Reacts

[07:29]–[13:13]

• Heather Boushey expresses widespread concern in the economic community about the erosion of Fed independence:

  • Suggests Warsh’s shift from hawkish views to aligning with Trump’s rate-cutting agenda is politically calculated.
  • “That worries me because it indicates that he wants this job very badly. ...We need to have someone in this role who’s willing to follow data and evidence and to make sound decisions, not just do whatever the President wants.” [07:29]

• Sen. Mark Warner’s statement: Shared concerns over whether any Fed Chair under Trump can act independently, especially given criminal proceedings against Powell.
  — “It’s difficult to trust that any chair of the Federal Reserve selected by this president will be able to act with the independence required of the position, knowing that the administration will levy charges against any leader who makes interest rate decisions based on facts and the needs of our economy rather than Trump’s personal preferences.” [08:54]

• Broader Consequences: Boushey warns the Fed’s regulatory responsibilities—bank supervision, access to credit—could also be politicized.

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4. Bank Supervision and Washington’s Regulatory Landscape

[10:48]–[13:55]

• Boushey on deregulatory threats:

  • Warsh is open to reducing the Fed’s supervision of banks—this may embolden further rollbacks by the Trump administration.
  • She doubts any Trump nominee can fully resist executive pressure.

• Potential for Powell to Remain:

  • Boushey praises Jay Powell’s steady leadership and hopes he might stay on as governor even after losing the chairmanship.
  • "I'm a fan of Jay Powell and I think that he would do a lot of good if he stayed on the board." [12:33]

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5. Confirmation Process: What Senators Should Probe

[13:13]–[14:32]

• Boushey calls Warsh’s change in tone a “flip flop,” and urges confirmation hearings probe the reasons for his policy reversals:
  • Why the dramatic shift from hawk to dove?
  • “I want to hear more about that and his vision for his leadership in the Fed.” [13:55]

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6. Wider Economic Policy Tensions: Tariffs, Tech, and Trade

[14:32]–[36:16]

• Boushey on tariffs (esp. 50–100% on Canada, Cuba):
  • Points out “chaotic” and unpredictable tariff policy under Trump, warning of potential price hikes and economic dislocation.
  • “What we have seen since he took office is a very chaotic implementation of economic policy, and in particular tariff policy...” [15:12]

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7. Government Shutdown Standoff and Immigration Negotiations

[17:30]–[25:40]

• White House Negotiates with Dems:

  • Trump’s administration unexpectedly engages to avert a “mini” shutdown, stripping DHS funding for short-term resolution.
  • Matt Terrell (GOP strategist) calls it a “smart move by President Trump” [19:31], emphasizing public support for tough immigration and border security.

• Jeannie Shan Zaino’s View:

  • House remains a wild card; tight numbers mean any member can hold up progress.
  • Warns the shutdown’s politics might be hurting Republicans, citing the fallout from recent ICE actions in Minneapolis.
  • “Donald Trump is not negotiating with Democrats because he likes them... He’s negotiating out of political necessity and a very weak hand that he is playing here on immigration.” [22:48]

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8. Technology, China, and Industrial Policy

[28:03]–[36:16]

• Tech Tensions—Nvidia, China, and Export Controls:
  • French Hill optimistic about U.S. tech leadership, wants Chinese approval for U.S. chips (Nvidia H200), but underscores national security stakes.
  • Naveen Garashankar (CSIS) discusses the balancing act between innovation, national security, and export controls:
    • “It’s not simply about the chip, it’s about the whole AI ecosystem.” [30:02]
    • U.S. must ‘out innovate’ rather than just restrict.
    • Civil-military fusion in China poses a unique risk; export controls alone are insufficient.

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9. Interview: Rep. French Hill, House Financial Services Chair—Fed Confirmation and Economic Priorities

[37:51]–[47:16]

• Hill’s Take on Warsh:

  • Defends Warsh’s qualifications; urges quick confirmation and resolution of “distracting” investigation into Powell.
  • “We need that successive leadership and we need it confirmed and let them have some, some overlap and be able to work together.” [38:36]
  • Downplays the seriousness of Powell investigation, calling it a distraction from Trump’s macroeconomic agenda. [39:52]

• On Powell’s Future:

  • "Chairman Powell has to take that decision,"—hopes for smooth transition, warns against “shadow chair” scenario. [41:17]

• Bank Regulation & Congressional Oversight:

  • Stresses Congress’s role in supervising regulators, blames Biden admin for overemphasizing DEI at the expense of “safety and soundness.” [42:52]

• On Housing Legislation & Interest Rates:

  • Optimistic about House legislation to boost housing supply and supports lower rates to address affordability.
  • “Housing and housing availability... are absolutely at the top of the agenda for the American people, families all over this country.” [45:04]

• Upcoming Hearings:

  • Expects Powell to appear for semiannual testimony; Treasury Secretary Bessant also scheduled.

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Notable Quotes

• Michael McKee:
  “He wants to do sort of a major overhaul of the Fed and it isn’t clear how people at the Fed are going to feel about that.” [02:31]

• Heather Boushey:
  “We need to have someone in this role who’s willing to follow the data and evidence and to make sound decisions, not just do whatever the President wants.” [07:29]

• Matt Terrell:
  “Nobody negotiates better with lawmakers on Capitol Hill than President Trump.” [20:32]

• Jeannie Shan Zaino:
  “Donald Trump is not negotiating with Democrats because he likes them... He's negotiating out of political necessity and a very weak hand.” [22:48]

• Naveen Garashankar:
  “It’s not simply about the chip, it’s about the whole AI ecosystem.” [30:02]

• French Hill:
  “We need that successive leadership and we need it confirmed and let them have some, some overlap and be able to work together.” [38:36]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump’s pick of Kevin Warsh, initial reactions: 01:02–05:55
• Confirmation process and political dynamics: 03:31–06:56
• Economist Heather Boushey’s warnings on Fed independence: 07:29–13:13
• Discussion of tariffs and economic policy unpredictability: 14:32–15:57
• Government shutdown politics: 17:30–25:40
• China, technology policy, and export controls: 28:03–36:16
• Interview: Rep. French Hill on Warsh nomination and Fed priorities: 37:51–47:16

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Episode Takeaways

• Fed Independence in the Crosshairs: Expert guests voice bipartisan anxiety that Trump’s Fed appointment could erode independent monetary policy, with shifting alliances, Senate hurdles, and the background drama of DOJ probes heightening uncertainty.
• Warsh’s Evolution: Warsh’s transformation from inflation hawk to Trump-aligned dove is scrutinized as possible political opportunism.
• Political & Economic Volatility: Broader policy unpredictability—whether over tariffs, regulation, or tech competition with China—underscores a Washington in flux.
• Legislative Uncertainty: Both the Fed nomination and the government funding deal face a labyrinth of procedural and political hurdles, especially with the House and Senate so tightly contested.

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Transcript

[Tyler Kendall]

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[Joe Weisenthal]

Thanks for being with on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. We've got a lot of wood to chop this hour with big questions about government funding, a deadline that will likely mean a shutdown at midnight tonight, 12:01am tomorrow. That coupled with news from the White House today. The president finally making it clear. Yeah, it was one of the Kevin's warsh in this case to be the next chair of the Federal Reserve. President talked about this just a short time ago if you were with us on Bloomberg. He invited reporters into the Oval Office for a completely unrelated matter is in fact signing an executive order on an IndyCar race that's going to be happening, I guess coming up this summer in Washington. We'll have much more on that if it actually takes place. But he was asked by reporters about the pick. Here's what he said, but he certainly.

[French Hill]

Wants to cut rates. I've been watching him for a long time. Top student, best schools.

[Naveen Garashankar]

Everything was like perfect.

[French Hill]

Youngest person ever to serve on the Fed. Got the whole package. Looks don't mean anything, but he's got the look. But he's got the whole package and I think he's going to do a great job.

[Joe Weisenthal]

And the headline on the terminal Trump picks a Reinvented Wash to lead the Federal Reserve. Not everybody's happy about this pick and we're very curious to talk to Michael McKee about the confirmation process, which we know is going to be a tough one to start with. Thom Tillis blocking the way in Objection to the DOJ investigation into Jay Powell. Michael McKee, Bloomberg International Economics and policy correspondent, with us live from world headquarters in New York. What do you make of the pick, Mike, and how long is this going to take to get through The Senate.

[Michael McKee]

It's not a complete surprise because of course Warsh has been mentioned as a potential fed chair for eight years now. In the first Trump administration in 2017, he was considered the job that ultimately went to Jay Powell. So he stayed close to the President and he's kept himself just enough in the news on his views on monetary policy to keep him as a live candidate. And it appears the President never really lost faith in him. We all wondered as the prediction markets went up and down. But Wash has got some qualifications, he's got some strengths, he has some weaknesses. He's certainly a got the central bank experience and he is an inflation hawk, even though he's gotten more, more dovish. But those should appeal to Wall Street. He's got the Wall street background. At the same time he's, he wants to do sort of a major overhaul of the Fed and it isn't clear how people at the Fed are going to feel about that.

[Tyler Kendall]

So Mike, is this more a question of when, not if, we'll see a confirmation of a potential Kevin Warsh as Fed chair Because President Trump says he's not concerned with Senator Tillis blocking this and Senator Tillis himself said that he was pleased by the pick.

[Michael McKee]

I don't see this as being any kind of major delay. It could be a delay, but it's also a delay that isn't necessary at this point. It's, there is a subpoena to Jay Powell to provide records on the construction projects at the Fed buildings. There's no indictment. There hasn't been an indication that he's necessarily a target for an indictment. The President, if he wanted to, could call up Judge Jeanine his, his TV star U.S. attorney and say, you know, let's make this disappear. So I think what we saw in the Oval Office today is the President not wanting to completely back down and kind of let Jay Powell off the hook at this point. But I don't think the idea that Powell would stay on because Trump didn't get Marsh confirmed would be something that the President would want to see.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Interesting. What do we make of the personal connections here and to what extent will this play into confirmation hearings? Mike Warsh works with Stanley Druckenmiller, who's close with Scott Bessant who led the search. Warsh's father in law, Ronald Lauder, was an undergrad friend of Donald Trump at University of Pennsylvan as Wharton Business School is just, just the way Washington works.

[Michael McKee]

Well, and don't forget Stan Druckenmiller and Scott Bessant. Worked for George Soros. I mean, I'm not sure how Mag is going to react to all that. Their guy is now going to be running the Fed. The Soros people, there will be questions about all of this, but Warsh has been sort of operating on his own for a long time now. And while he's friends with these people and he works for Stan, he's not driven by any of them. And he certainly, people would certainly take issue with the idea that he is going to be told what to do by either of them. The Lauder connection is interesting, of course, because Ron Lauder, his father in law, has been a major donor to the Republican Party. So it certainly could have put a thumb on the scale there. But you have to remember that Ron Lauder is also the person who told Donald Trump to go get Greenland.

[Tyler Kendall]

Mike, if it's perhaps Hindsight is now 2020, I am wondering what you make of what felt like a long delay in us getting this announcement from President Trump. We kept hearing from the administration it was going to be within the next two weeks. Within the next two weeks, though they did make what was our understanding of a January deadline by at least one day?

[Michael McKee]

Well, they probably, I hesitate to guess what happens in the Trump White House. I would imagine that the president had interviews with all of the finalists and he decided he kind of liked them all and they all had good points and bad points and he wanted to weigh the issue. And then you have to remember that this president is the bull in the China shop and there is a crisis a minute in that Oval Office. And so I imagine that he got sidetracked. He didn't need to pick anybody immediate while he dealt with Venezuela, while he dealt with Iran and everything else, this probably was kind of off to the side.

[Tyler Kendall]

All right, Bloomberg's Michael McKee, international economic and policy correspondent for us. Thank you so much. And to extend the conversation, we're going to bring in now Heather Boucher. She's a former member of the Council of Economic Advisers under the President Joe Biden administration and now chief economist for Invest in America Cabinet. Heather, thanks so much for being here. Let's just get your initial reactions thought thoughts on this pick for Kevin Warsh to be the next Fed chairman and what your understanding is on the shape that his policymaking could make if he is confirmed to lead the central bank.

[Heather Boucher]

Yeah, Tyler, I mean, we've been waiting for this announcement. And here's the thing. I think many of us in the economics community and around the world are very concerned about this question of Fed independence. And you know, what kind of person President Trump would put into this role would nominate to be chair, whether or not they would able to stand up for, you know, doing serious incredible analysis of what's going on in the economy and making those independent decisions. And I think that, you know, what Kevin Wash has shown over the past year is that while he has long been a hawk on inflation, you know, during the global financial crisis when unemployment was 9%, he was out there saying, hey, we need to be really worried about inflation. You know, but now ever since he, it seems like he's been trying to get this job, he's done a flip flop and he seems to be par the President's views that actually no rates are too high and we can lower rates and we don't need to worry about inflation, we don't need to worry about the consequences on the economy of many of Trump's policies that might raise prices. And so that worries me because it indicates that he, he wants this job very badly. That's not a bad thing. Of course, it's an important job. And we want whoever takes this job to be successful in this role. But we need to have someone in this role who's willing to follow the data and evidence and to make sound decision decisions, not just do whatever the President wants.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Interesting. Heather, curious to hear your thoughts on a post. We just saw a statement from Senator Mark Warner, of course, Banking Committee, and he will factor into this confirmation process. He writes, it's difficult to trust that any chair of the Federal Reserve selected by this president will be able to act with the independence required of the position, knowing that the administration will levy charges against any leader who makes interest rate decisions based on facts and the needs of our economy rather than Trump's personal preferences. Do you share that concern that the chairman knows he could be investigated or face charges if he doesn't do what the President wants?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, I think that is obviously the concern. You know, we've seen what happened to Lisa Cook. We've seen the charges, you know, the criminal charges against the Fed and Jay Powell right now, you know, this is a serious breach of the independence that the Federal Reserve has long held. And it's important that, you know this is about interest rates. It's also about all of the other things that the Federal Reserve does. You know, what, what kind of things does the President, you know, want the Fed to do in terms of banking regulation or whether or not banks have access to the credit lines that they need? Is the President going to try to use the Federal Reserve to punish people that he doesn't like. We've seen the President be willing to take all parts of government and use them for his own personal retribution schemes. So I think there is a lot of concern and I think doubling down on that concern. You know, Kevin Marsh has made these speeches and comments over the past about questioning Federal Reserve independence. There was an article that I was reading before the show that appeared in Bloomberg last summer, you know, where he was questioning independence of the Federal Reserve. And so what does he mean by that? Why is he saying that now? And you know, what kind of chair will he be? These are big questions and these are the questions that senators should be asking as they go through the confirmation process.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Heather, I'm glad that you brought up that the Fed has more than just monetary policy when it comes to what's they, what they end up doing, because we have heard from Wash previously indicate that he's willing to give up some aspects when it comes to bank supervision. I'm wondering if we can tap on your expertise as working under an administration in economic policy. What would this mean for other regulators in Washington?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, I think it, you know, what we need is bank regulation that is sound, that is focusing on making sure that we are protecting the financial system as a whole. Not individual banks necessarily, but the whole system and making sure that the costs of that are not pushed on to families across the country and that we don't have something like the global financial crisis happen again. That is the, you know, one of the really important purposes of the Fed and our financial regulatory system overall. And I think there are real concerns. You know, the administration is already, you know, taking steps to pare back some of these regulations on banks. And having a Federal Reserve chair that is already said that they're open to that does raise a lot of big questions and concern concerns I will say. You know, it was, it's been hard to watch this process because I don't know that any of the options that it seemed like the President was looking at would be folks that would be able to stand up to him. And so I think another deeper question we need to ask ourselves is would anyone that the President put in place be able to stand up to him given the kinds of pressure that he has been putting on these independent institutions.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, are you hoping, Heather, that Jay Powell hangs around a while and could be on the board another couple of years if you want it to be?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, I'm a fan of Jay Powell and I think that he would do a lot of good if he stayed on the board. I don't, I know that he watches a lot of press around, you know, what's going on, what folks say about him. I think that he would be an asset and could help really ground what the Fed does in the kind of steady leadership that, that he has provided over his term as chair.

[Tyler Kendall]

So you don't think that this changes the longer term calculus? You think that we could be looking at Jay Powell staying on as a governor through 2028?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, I haven't. I don't know what's in his mind, but I think that that certainly wouldn't be a bad idea.

[Naveen Garashankar]

Hmm.

[Joe Weisenthal]

We're spending some time with Heather Boucher as part of our coverage here on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. The confirmation process could be interesting here, Heather, and curious your thoughts on the way this might go. I realize obviously you come from the Biden administration, not the Congress, but Thom Tillis has a problem with this. He's put a block on it until the DOJ investigation into Jay Powell is resolved. And some of the changes in his feelings about the Fed that you touched on earlier have been highlighted by some Democrats in the Capitol. Our headline on the terminal refers to a reinvented warship. What types of questions would you ask him in confirmation?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, you know, I called it a flip flop in my note this morning. I think that I, if I were advising one of the senators what to ask, you know, I think to investigate why has he changed his views and what does this mean about his thoughts over the long term? You know, how he's thinking about interest rates. Why was he so hawkish before and so dovish now? And, you know, what were the empirical facts and data that caused him to change his mind? I want to hear more about that in his vision for his leadership in the Fed.

[Tyler Kendall]

Heather, I think on any other day we would really be asking you about what has been a flurry of recent tariff threats from President Trump, particularly amid a week where we're talking a lot about a dollar weakness. And just last night we saw President Trump heightened his tariff threats related to two countries, Cuba and also Canada. In Canada in particular, we've seen a lot of ramped up rhetoric against the PR minister Mark Carney. Now this 50% tariff against Canadian made aircraft last week it was a 100% tariff. What do you view of these threats when it comes to our northern neighbor? Are these credible threats? Are we posturing ahead of USMCA negotiations or could it be both?

[Heather Boucher]

Well, I do not in any way pretend to read President Trump's mind and what we have seen since he took office is a very chaotic implementation of economic policy and in particularly tariff policy. It's very capricious. You know, it, it comes and goes. It depends on his mood and how he feels about different countries. So I think that's, that's thing one, the announcement about the airplanes seemed very challenging because, you know, where are we going to get those planes? These aren't easy to make. How, how is this going to affect the U.S. economy? You know, here we are today talking about the Federal Reserve and prices, and I think the question has to be whether or not those tariffs are going to lead to higher prices.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Heather, it's great to have you. Heather Boucher, economist at the White House and the Biden administration. We thank you for the insights and we'll assemble our political panel next. Are we going to shut down tonight? We'll talk to Jeannie and Matt about that straight ahead only here on Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

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[Joe Weisenthal]

Play Bloomberg 11:30 as Washington recovers from the premiere of Melania Waka Flocka Flame has made his way outside of the Kennedy center along with all the dignitaries there. That was a big thing. Tyler Kendall last evening here in town, the after parties, the invite list controlled very carefully. You can tell me all about it later when we're off the Air.

[Tyler Kendall]

I enjoyed talking about it yesterday with you on this very program.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It's going to be on 1500 screens. They say Melania, really? Then it will have its own series on Netflix because of course, Jeff Bezos or on Amazon Prime. Jeff Bezos bought the film. Right, Right. This is the stuff that Tyler is concerned with right now. Now, all of this was blotted out by the big news of the day, a Fed chair pick. We've talked about that this hour already in Kevin Warsh. But also a government shutdown that appears to be looming even though the president indicated last evening on Truth Social that he has cut a deal with Democrats.

[Tyler Kendall]

Pretty remarkable, actually, that the White House got involved and got involved so quickly. Right. Compare that to the last government shutdown where it felt like the two sides weren't even engaging at all. But just because they have struck this deal, the contours of it, our understanding is that they're going to strip out the DHS funding, do a short term stopgap measure for that while they work out what those potential curbs on ICE could look like, but then pass the remaining five bills. The thing is, we're up against this really difficult timeline tonight at midnight, the House is out of session. We saw a snag last night by Senator Lindsey Graham which is leading to questions on where we go from here. So that's where we're going to start with our political panel today. Jeannie Shan Zaino, democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe center and a Bloomberg Politics contributor alongside Matt Terrell, managing partner at Firehouse Strategies and a Republican strategist. So, Matt, let's just start with you. What does this tell you that the White House was willing to negotiate about the potency of this political issue, what we're seeing play out in Minneapolis, the future of immigration policy in this country. And what sort of curbs do you think that the White House is going to get behind as we try to glean more details about the agreement that they reached?

[Matt Terrell]

Well, I think it's a smart move by President Trump working to negotiate, reach out to Democrats wanting to get to a deal here. And it comes down to this sixth bill. And I think right now it's not a great look for Democrats. I mean, the truth is this is not going to stop ICE from being fully funded. It's not going to, you know, shut down dhs. What this will do is shut down fema, tsa, Secret Service, Coast Guard. That's not a good look for Democrats. But in the end, the question is, what's going to get this across the finish line. I think let's just wait and see here whether it's a two week period. We'll see what the timeline is here. But you're right in saying that we are coming up to a deadline that is this evening we're going to have that partial government shut down. That's roughly 80% of the government that's going to be shut down, if you will. But I think it's a good look for the president that just a good look. It's the right thing to do for the president to be showing leadership here, wanting to work with Democrats to get this across the finish line.

[Joe Weisenthal]

What do you think of the five Republicans we talked with one yesterday and Senator Ted Buddy, who voted against that minibus, were they crossing a line with the president?

[Matt Terrell]

You know this. For the president, these lawmakers to work through. Here's what I can tell you. Nobody negotiates better with lawmakers on Capitol Hill than President Trump.

[Joe Weisenthal]

When you see like a Mike Lee though, a Tommy Tuberville, a Ted Budd, it's not just Rand Paul who's voting no here. There are some concerns about the optics around this ICE enforcement.

[Matt Terrell]

And I think you should expect that President Trump's going to work one on one with these lawmakers working the phones to work with them to get to a place where people are comfortable moving forward here. But I think the other, other part of this is where are the American people at on this? And yeah, there's certainly the administration saying, look, nothing's ever done perfect. And there's things that they're looking at right now with ICE in Minneapolis. But at the same time, you look at the polling right now, Republicans are doing better on the issues of immigration and border security in comparison to Democrats. And beyond that, the vast majority of Americans right now, they want to see people who are in this country illegally, who've committed crimes, think about rape, homicide, deported from the country. So I think right now President Trump has a mandate. But to your point, it's work with these lawmakers one on one, expect that he's doing that to get this across the finish line.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, to build on this and Matt's point, Jeannie, how much of a wild card could the House of Representatives be? Because we know that any legislation is going to have to get kicked back down to that chamber. We've already seen some conservatives make their own demands since we're going to be shifting the contours of the package that was already approved by the House. House, what are you watching for? And could this debate really drag on?

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, Tyler. And it's going to be kicked down to the House twice. Right. They've got to pass the soft gap portion, which is the easier of the two, I presume. And then once the deal is reached, if it's reached, it's got to go back and get passed. And with numbers as tight as they are in the House, that is going to be terrible, terribly difficult, because it means that any member of the House post can pull up, Lindsey Graham can hold this thing up for what they want. And people have a lot of asks. So that's one thing. The other thing is this bill that they are stripping out now was negotiated. Now, when you blow up that negotiated bill, people are going to go back to their corners and ask again for what was what they wanted. So it's going to be tough. That said, you know, the politics of this are critically important to understand.

[4imprint Announcer]

Stand.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Matt was talking about public support for immigrants who are accused of crimes. And absolutely, people most many Americans support that. But what we're seeing in the polls is this enormous overreach on the part of the White House and the administration and ICE when it comes to what happened in Minneapolis. When you have two American protesters shot dead on the streets, none of that is supported, particularly by independents, Republicans. And the generic polls now have Republicans have Democrats rather up double digits. That is bad news for Republicans in the House. It's bad news for the White House. Donald Trump is not negotiating with Democrats because he likes them or thinks that it's a good idea. He's negotiating out of political necessity and a very weak hand that he is playing here on immigration.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Tyler refers to a wild card being the House map. There's another wild card in the Senate named Lindsey Graham who is yelling at Mike Johnson from the floor today. It's his birthday, for crying out loud. The Speaker's birthday. He wants language in this bill. We've talked about this before on the program. When going into the last shutdown, this was an issue. He wants the right to be able to sue the government for having his phone records accessed by Jack Smith. Remember when Joe Biden at one point said every senator is a president because the margin's so tight, so Lindsey Graham can keep this thing on ice as long as he wants. Why should he be able to sue the government. Government over this?

[Matt Terrell]

Well, look, it's up to Senator Graham to decide what he wants to do here. And look, he's had concerns like many Republicans on Capitol Hill regard what happened with Jack Smith. The truth is this is something that voters nationwide had a concern with, particularly those mega base Republican based voters. So I do think that what Senator Graham is doing right now is speaking to Americans nationwide, particularly those base voters out there.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Why is he alone on this thing?

[Matt Terrell]

Well, you know, I we'll see who else weighs in here. I mean, look, as we've seen, anything can happen during these government shutdowns or in the lead up to a shutdown. It's not uncommon, frankly, for lawmakers to want to highlight certain things that they care about. This is a unique moment right now to do that. But in the end it is truly about keeping the government open or I should say once it shut down, shuts down likely this evening, getting it back open. And that's where the focus needs to be, frankly, for lawmakers on Capitol Hill. Look, every lawmaker certain Graham has the right to to vocalize where he's at on things here right now. That's his right as a senator. But I think what the American people want right now is to get the government back open once it shuts down and really to focus in on the key issues they care about. One of those is border security safety that's going to be on the ballot in November coming up here in these midterm elections as well.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, in our final minute here, Jeannie, we also want to make sure we ask you guys about the other top story, Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve pick. Wondering what you make of that. But also so the fact that when President Trump announced him, he also put out this statement in parallel touting his NEC director, Kevin Hassett, explaining that he didn't get the job because he wants to keep an economic messenger inside the administration.

[Jeannie Shan Zaino]

Yeah, that's right. The two Kevins and we know which one got the nod. But he's supportive of both. He said today in the White House he likes both. I think it's going to be a fascinating confirmation process given particularly how the issue of Jerome Powell, this lawsuit and what happens there. So I'm excited for about time, Tyler. We waited for this announcement a long time.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Jeannie, thank you so much. And Matt, great conversation and an important panel that sets us up for our late edition of balance of power. I'll be back here with Tyler at 5pm Eastern time. Not that we're going anywhere now. I just want you to know we'll be up on Capitol Hill and we'll be live from the Senate to go to the source and find out exactly what is going on. Jeannie. Shan Zaino, Bloomberg Politics Contributor MATT Terrell, Republican strategist, strategist, firehouse. Thank you both for a great conversation. Much more ahead, including our conversation with Chairman French Hill. We're going to get the view from the Republican at the top of the House Financial Services Committee when it comes to the confirmation process and the choice, Kevin Warsh by way of Donald Trump as the next Fed chair. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[4imprint Announcer]

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say alexa.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Play Bloomberg 11:30 Balance of power now the Friday edition live from Washington with big questions about a government shutdown tonight, a mini shutdown we're calling it, as well as the future of the Federal Reserve with Kevin Warsh, tapped by President Trump. Today we're going to talk to Congressman French Hill who chairs the House Financial Services Committee. Just moments from now. He will join us live from Capitol Hill to get his take on all of this as Jensen Huang keeps his eyes on China along with shareholders of Nvidia as part of a much bigger picture here when it comes to export control and the US race with China when it comes to the AI spend. What about the H200? We've been hearing this back and forth about whether in video should be allowed to sell them and about whether China wants them. Of course, now they've been cleared for sale in China, helped the stock a little bit, but the CEO of Nvidia, Jensen Huang, says the Chinese government has yet to approve the imports.

[French Hill]

Listen, I'm hoping that also the Chinese government would allow Nvidia to sell in H200.

[Joe Weisenthal]

So they have to decide and I'm.

[French Hill]

Looking forward to a favorable decision. I think that H200 is very good for America technology leadership. It's also very good for the Chinese market and the customers would very much like to have H200. And so I'm looking forward to a good decision.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Speaking to a throng of reporters at the airport in Taipei, it brings us to an important conversation that we've been looking forward to to with Naveen Garashankar, who is the president of Economic Security and Technology at the center for Strategic and International Studies. CSIS out with an important new report called Tech Edge, A Living Playbook for America's Technology long game. And it is a long game for Jensen Huang and Nvidia and the whole space. Naveen, it's great to have you. Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio once again.

[Naveen Garashankar]

Thank you for having me.

[Joe Weisenthal]

First of all, is this on or off or whatever?

[Naveen Garashankar]

Well, it's hard to tell, but I would actually zoom out and say what it underscores is how far the debate on export controls has come. It's not simply access to a chip. It's around Chinese autonomy, who exercises leverage in terms of setting the rules of the game. Importantly, it's not simply about the chip, it's about the whole AI ecosystem.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yes.

[Naveen Garashankar]

So I think it's always important to keep those in mind, which is really the thrust of our report. Because if you're trying to play the long game rather than react to like the news of the moment, you've got to keep in mind all the pieces that make China better at AI versus the US or vice versa.

[Tyler Kendall]

So then what is the sweet spot when it comes to the long game and an administration that wants to balance national security concerns, but also giving an American company market access?

[Naveen Garashankar]

Absolutely. So for us, the ultimate goal is to out innovate. Out, innovate, out innovate. But to do that, it's not important that a deep seek moment happens. It's important to know why a deep SEQ moment happens. And the answer to that question is the underlying ecosystems that drive technology innovation, commercialization and scaling. How do you move from laboratory to factory as quickly as possible? And so the thrust of what we've been saying is focus on the drivers which are the ecosystems and two, build dexterity across technologies that matter and how the ones that are interconnected. So it's not just AI, it's AI and Rare Earths it's AI and digital networks. These pieces together generate the types of competitive advantage you want to win over the long.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Interesting. Well, when you talk about what's needed to win the long game, one of the items you point out is defending our networks. Can you do that without more severe export controls?

[Naveen Garashankar]

It's a combination of pieces to defend our networks. One is, I would would say you want positive incentives to deepen integration with partners that you can trust. Obviously we're in a very different moment now with some of our traditional allies and that cuts against what we need to win on technology leadership. Two is you do need defensive tools like export controls and investment screening. But alone, without focusing on the incentives for deeper integration, stronger inter firm linkages is not going to do the traffic trick. So when we say defend the networks, we mean defend the networks of your innovators, your traditional trading partners, researchers around the world with whom you can have secure collaboration.

[Tyler Kendall]

What do you make of the more hands on industrial policy that we've seen from the Trump administration taking stakes in some of these companies? This week it was USA Rare Earths. I'm thinking about Trilogy Metals, MP Materials, even the golden share in the Nippon deal that we saw strike.

[Naveen Garashankar]

I think it's really important to rely on the stress tested, time tested, time tested drivers of innovation that we've known for almost 200 years. And so whenever you have government intervention of this kind, whether it's subsidies or direct government ownership, you have to ask the question, what is the market failure you're solving for? And I don't know if we're doing that in as disciplined a way as possible. The risk, even as we consider economic security or national security, the risk is that it becomes a slippery slope and we forget the drivers of the free enterprise system that we have. And so I think it's a question of the right balance. We emphasize the strong enablers that are needed across technologies, workforce, energy, capital, market access, those sorts of things, R and D in basic and foundational research, all of which do not include government ownership of a particular company. Do that, make sure that that's done.

[Joe Weisenthal]

It's been fascinating listening recently to the CEO of Anthropic who is continuing to warn us about the very technology that he's helping to develop. He compared giving high end AI chips to China to providing our nuclear technology to North Korea. That's a pretty extreme view. I guess I'm wondering when we will know if he's right or wrong.

[Naveen Garashankar]

The challenge is you don't actually know until it's probably too Late.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Great. That's not the answer we want.

[Naveen Garashankar]

Right. But I think it's worth noting that many of the people who've advocated for taking down export controls, when you ask them how do they weigh the real national security risks, you don't get a great answer. And I'm particularly concerned about civil military fusion policy on the part of the prc. At the same time, a strategy that is purely around export controls or purely around investment screening also misses the point, which is you have to out innovate by strengthening the incentives for us to continue to really push the envelope at the coal face of technological innovation. So it's both. And I think the thing I would just mention is economic policy has become much more complicated than it was in a world where we just had globalization and we didn't have to deal with these mercantile and malign threats. So it's never going to be an easy answer of black and white. And that's kind of an adult conversation that we should be having.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Right.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well let's in our final minute talk about one of the key economic policies of this administration which is of course tariffs. And I'm curious what you make of the fact that we've seen a lot of trade deals struck without addressing a top US Concern when it comes to protecting tariffs. Tech company digital services taxes. We saw threats renewed this week, not sure what time is right now, a new threat on South Korea over how they have treated some American tech companies. Their allegations that there is unfair trade practices. What do you make of this? Is this something that the administration should have prioritized in all of the talks last year?

[Naveen Garashankar]

Three things. I think the administration has focused too much on the good merchandise goods trade deficit rather than services opportunities. Second, to the extent that they have said we want to bring down non tariff barriers to US services exports, for example in Korea, that's a very good thing. The issue is to execute on that. The issue is to deliver on that. And I think third is we could use the tariff agenda as leverage more effectively to identify many, many opportunities for US companies to go deeper into these markets and support economic integration. So I think I would keep the eyes on the prize when it comes to that.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Thank you, Naveen.

[Tyler Kendall]

All right, Naveen Gauri Shankar, president of the Economic Security and Technology Department at the center for Strategic and International Studies and author of the new report Tech Edge A Living Playbook for America's Technology. Long game. Thanks so much.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Stay with us. On balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[4imprint Announcer]

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[Bloomberg Announcer]

You'Re listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on Demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Thanks for being with us again on the Friday edition of Balance of Power. As we try to get our arms around the President's decision to tap Kevin Wash as the next Fed Chair. We bring you what is the most important interview you're going to hear and see today about this topic on Bloomberg. The Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee is joining us live right now from Capitol Hill. That of course would be Republican Congressman French Hill of Arkansas, a former banker, now lawmaker who is going to play into, of course, this entire conversation. Congressman, it's great to see you. Mr. Chairman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Is the President going to get a chair here who now rapidly cuts rates when the President wants? There's a big question about Fed independence and I'm wondering what you're thinking today.

[French Hill]

Well, Joe, it's great to be with you. Happy New Year. Always good to be with you on a big news day like this. I was it gratified to see President Trump name a very academically, professionally and from a monetary policy point of view, qualified individual and Kevin Warsh as his nominee to succeed Jay Powell as Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Kevin's years of experience in financial markets as a former governor of the Fed. I think keenly have him knowledgeable of the responsibilities and the leadership needed to guide the America's Central Bank. And I hope that calmer heads will prevail on this investigation around Jay Powell and that we don't have Warsh's nomination held up because of that. We need that successive leadership and we need it confirmed and let them have some, some overlap and be able to work together.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, Senator Tom Taylor says that as of now, he's going to block that nomination until that legal matter is resolved. Are you calling on the Department of Justice to drop its investigation into Jerome Powell?

[French Hill]

Well, I know Senator Tillis point of view, and you saw my statement about the investigation of Jeff Powell, on potentially having misled Congress about the building renovation plans over the Fed. I think that's a distraction. I don't think that's a topic that deserves a DOJ investigation in my personal view. I made that clear within hours of that public information hitting. And I said part of that distraction was this is going to potentially delay President Trump Trump's own economic agenda, which includes getting his choice confirmed in the Senate. So that's why I think it's important, I hope that the DOJ can more promptly review the data, review their decision and take a final decision on their whether or not they're going to pursue the case. I just want people to know publicly this is, as I say, a distraction and could delay President Trump's own macro, macroeconomic agenda.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Well, obviously, we're deeply curious to know what the timeline is, and we don't have a sense of that when it comes to the Department of Justice. But assuming this is resolved and there is a chair wash in the months ahead, Mr. Chairman, I wonder your thoughts on Jay Powell staying with the Fed. He could be there for another two years. Would that be a good thing, or do you worry about having a scenario in which there's a shadow chair, so to speak?

[French Hill]

Well, I think, I think Chairman Powell has to take that decision once Chairman Walsh is confirmed about whether he'll leave the Fed at the time of his chair term ending in May or continue as a governor. I think a lot of that depends on what happens over the next few weeks. I think it's important, though, that President Trump have his chair nominated and confirmed as effective when as possible, because I think that's an important component in making sure we get price stability right in conjunction with all the things we're doing, Joe, to help our economy have a faster growth and a sustained growth that benefits all of America's working families. We've done a good job on the tax side preventing a huge tax increase on working families. We are lowering the regulatory compliance burden on American businesses, particularly, particularly small businesses and community banks. We're opening up energy markets across the country to bring down energy prices. These are all things that I think have the promise of giving us good, strong economic growth in 2026. And I just don't want to have the monetary policy aspect of that be under a shadow in these early months of the year.

[4imprint Announcer]

Hmm.

[Tyler Kendall]

Well, as we're thinking about a future Fed under a potential chair war, she has previously indicated that he'd be willing to give up some of the aspects of bank supervision. I'm wondering what regulatory role Congress would be willing to step into, if at all. What does this perhaps mean for bolstering your own oversight capacity when it comes to bank regulations?

[French Hill]

Well, we have a vigorous oversight of bank supervision across all the bank regulators, credit union regulation regulators. And we do that through both our legislative work on making concrete legislative reforms that would tailor that compliance, regulation, focus it, tie it to bank complexity, bank size. And we also using our influence with the regulators, whether it's Jonathan Gould at the Comptroller of the Currency, Travis Hill at the FDIC, or Mickey Bowman, the Vice Chairman of the Fed. How do we have a harmonized balance and common approach? We got way off track in the Biden administration. Costs went up. I think safety and soundness compliance actually went down as the Biden administration focused on things like DEI instead of bank safety and soundness. So we want to play a role in what the executive branch might consider on any reform to that compliance and super supervisory process. But the point you mentioned about the, the Fed and their role of supervising large banks and bank holding companies trying to consolidate that efforts been, and that's an idea as, as old as the Fed's creation itself back in 1913.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Mr. Chairman, there's a hope that lower interest rates would help to unlock some motion in the housing market here. And this is something the President has expressed a lot of concern about because if you start to get to this as well, he's worried that you start to raid people's nest eggs if housing values start to come down. You were right here on Bloomberg TV and radio after you passed your housing bill out of committee that would cut red tape and spurn more building here. The Majority Leader signaled it would be coming soon in an interview. Do you have a sense of timeline on this?

[French Hill]

Well, Joe, I do. I think our 21st century housing act focus on the supply. We want to lower the cost of constructing housing and we ought to, we want to increase the supply. It's not a demand oriented bill and I think that's what we need right now. I think there are other ways to tackle it as well, and my friends on the House Ways and Means Committee have approaches they might want to take that could unlock housing and increase supply. So if you have lowering interest rates, rates, and you have the red tape cut, which we propose in 21st century housing, and you combine that with freeing up our community banks to make loans, which is an objective we have in our Main Street Capital Access act, that's a perfect way to unlock housing availability to more families through lower cost and more supply. I hope that that bill can come to the House, House floor in just a few days. I really am pushing for that. I think it's the right decision. I've told President Trump that housing and housing availability, housing accessibility and housing costs are absolutely at the top of the agenda for the American people, families all over this country. And with his help, we can get this bill passed in the House and signed into law in the final minute.

[Tyler Kendall]

We have you, Chair Hill, do you have a date set yet for Jerome Powell semiannual testimony to Congress? And do you expect him to make that appearance?

[French Hill]

I do. I expect Chairman Powell to appear before the committee. We are working with his office to set that date. We also tend to coordinate that very carefully with the Senate Banking Committee as well, so that those testimonies are in the same week and that work continues. But we look forward to having Chairman Powell to talk about. Is Humphrey hawking Humphrey Hawkins obligation to give his semiannual monetary policy testimony?

[Joe Weisenthal]

Yeah, that's news. Mr. Chairman, there had been a thought that he might not be able to or willing to appear. How about the Treasury Secretary? In our remaining moment, do you have an opportunity to bring Scott Bessant before the committee for testimony? Soon.

[French Hill]

Secretary Bessant will be back before the committee and really hours rather than days. And we look forward to talking to him and his opportunity to be before the committee and answer the committee's questions. And I want to say as we wrap up, what a great job he did on providing excellent candidates for President Trump's consideration to be the next Chairman of the Fed. Treasury Secretary Busset managed a terrific process.

[Tyler Kendall]

All right, Congressman French Hill, Republican, representing Arkansas 2nd District and the chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Thanks so much for joining us here. Bloomberg Television and Radio.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at Noontime [e-mail].

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[Joe Weisenthal]

To Let them go. Let them work and rework. Let them animate a dinosaur.

[Michael McKee]

No.

[Joe Weisenthal]

A toaster.

[Tyler Kendall]

No.

[Joe Weisenthal]

A hamster and a jetpack.

[Tyler Kendall]

Fun.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let them put golden wings on a dog.

[Michael McKee]

Good boy.

[Joe Weisenthal]

Let them color correct anywhere and everywhere. Let them make Powered by Intel Core Ultra processors, Lenovo gives creatives everything they need. Lenovo.com, let creatives create Lenovo.

[French Hill]

Lenovo.