Balance of Power – Trump Threatens No Back Pay for Shutdown’s Furloughed Workers

Podcast: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Kailey Leinz, Tim Stanwak
Aired: October 7, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode focuses on the ongoing government shutdown, with sharp attention on President Trump’s threat to withhold back pay for furloughed federal workers and the political brinkmanship between Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill. The show also explores the latest developments in U.S.-Canada trade relations, the agricultural sector’s struggles, efforts to resolve the crisis in Israel and Gaza, and the potential impact of the shutdown on federal workers and veterans.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Government Shutdown Stalemate

The Situation on Capitol Hill

• The government remains shut down with no imminent resolution. Lawmakers point fingers at one another, demanding action from the opposing party.
• Speaker Mike Johnson and House Republicans insist Democrats should agree to reopen the government before further negotiations.
• Senate is the current battleground for any funding deal, but both sides are entrenched.

Presidential Threat: No Back Pay

• President Trump signaled that furloughed federal workers may not receive back pay when the shutdown ends, breaking with past precedent.
  • Quote: “There are some people that really don’t deserve to be taken care of. We don’t have a sense of who he means.” — Tyler Kendall (02:11)
• An OMB memo suggests any future back pay would require specific Congressional appropriation, not an automatic legal guarantee set after the 2019 shutdown.
• This stance is stirring uncertainty and anger among federal workers, making the shutdown's stakes even higher.

Impact Timeline

• A significant pressure point looms on Friday, October 10th—the first missed payday for many federal employees.
  • “That’s going to be the first missed paycheck for many federal workers.” — Tyler Kendall (02:25)

2. Congressional Perspective – Interview with Rep. Mike Bost (R-IL)

Veterans’ Services at Risk

• As Chair of the House Veterans Affairs Committee, Rep. Bost describes the potential effects of the shutdown on veterans’ services.

  • Quote: “Every day of shutdown goes on, more pain is felt by more people... Each day we go farther. That is more and more danger.” (06:48)

• Core medical services for veterans remain funded, but essential contracted programs (like mental health grants, TAP programs for those leaving the military, daycare for homebound vets) are in danger as shutdown drags on.

• “We’re okay now...but we’ve got to pay attention. This can’t go out for a long time.” — Mike Bost (08:56)

Political Negotiations and Health Care

• Bost calls for reopening the government before negotiating larger issues like ACA premium subsidies, arguing shutdowns hurt the most vulnerable and don’t bring solutions.

  • Quote: “We can’t be working on them while we’re playing these games and you’re holding things hostage.” — Mike Bost (10:20)

• He references previous times when Democrats supported clean continuing resolutions (CRs) without leverage tactics, comparing their past and present stances.

3. Trade and the Farm Economy

U.S.-Canada Relations

• President Trump’s Oval Office meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney centered on tariffs and trade, but there’s little progress.
• Key issues: High tariffs remain—35% for non-USMCA goods, 50% for steel/aluminum/copper, and an especially high 400% Canadian dairy tariff.
• Quote: “Canada has a 400% tariff on the United States. Hopefully we can work through to get fair trade like the President has always talked about...” — Mike Bost (12:18)

Farmer Bailouts and China Trade

• Farmers face their fifth year of poor profits, hurting especially smaller farmers.
• Bailouts using tariff revenue are likely, as a rapid deal with China is unlikely.
  • <u>Noted frustration with China’s commodity purchase manipulations, which destabilize U.S. farmers’ markets</u>.

4. Federal Worker Back Pay and Potential Mass Layoffs

• President Trump’s comments on some not “deserving” back pay leave many anxious; the rationale or intended target group remains unclear.
• Rep. Bost notes that withholding back pay would be a major, nearly unprecedented shift, deeply harming young federal workers, including military families.
  • Quote: “No pay due is a very, very bad thing for those people who make sure our freedoms are taken care of.” — Mike Bost (16:33)

5. Israel-Gaza Peace Talks – Two Years Since 10/7 Attacks

Middle East Update

• A solemn day marks two years since Hamas’ attack on Israel.
• U.S. diplomacy under Trump is center stage, with critical meetings in Cairo seeking a ceasefire and a hostage deal.
• Bloomberg panel (Jeannie Shan Zaino and Rick Davis) weigh in on the intensity and urgency of diplomacy.

Obstacles to Resolution

• Hamas is resisting phase one of the proposed deal; internal divisions persist.
• Netanyahu is under pressure—both domestically (polls show Israelis want him to take responsibility for 10/7) and internationally.
• Israeli policy aims to eliminate Hamas, but panelists caution that removing one leadership group could lead to unintended, possibly more dangerous, replacements.

Notable Quotes:

• “The reality is...it incorporated a region-wide war...I have to give credit to Donald Trump for keeping Netanyahu in the game... Without us there would be no peace.” — Rick Davis (22:01)
• “Any time you destabilize a leadership...another group is going to come in and fill that power gap...which can be worse.” — Jeannie Shan Zaino (28:55)

6. Senate Dynamics & ACA Premium Debate

Senate Standoff

• Key moderate votes (Angus King, John Fetterman, Catherine Cortez Masto) are uncertain; rhetoric on both sides deteriorates trust.

• Senator Bill Cassidy (R-LA) urges dialogue but blames Democrat leadership for delay.

  • “There’s a complete breakdown of trust...Chuck Schumer could end this tomorrow if he wants to end it.” — Bill Cassidy (32:02)

• Cassidy advocates a seven-week extension of current funding (done 13 times under Biden) as a path forward.

• Debates also focus on ACA subsidies—Cassidy, Marjorie Taylor Greene, and others note the unsustainable cost, but there is intra-party dissent (Greene is publicly bucking the party line due to family impact).

7. Shutdown Messaging & Political Maneuvering

The Messaging War

• Republicans aggressively brand this as a “Schumer shutdown,” but polling doesn’t indicate their narrative is sticking (36:03).
• House Republicans maintain message discipline but are not present in D.C.—making them less accessible to reporters and direct pressure.

Marjorie Taylor Greene’s Solo Moves

• Greene, estranged from the Freedom Caucus, is openly breaking with GOP leadership on ACA issues and the Epstein files, drawing mixed reactions and highlighting Republican division (37:15-38:20).

8. What’s Next? Outlook and Conclusions

• Senate votes on continuing resolutions have failed repeatedly (five times).
• The President’s OMB memo on federal worker pay is heightening tensions and may actually be making Democrats more resolute rather than divided.
• Key deadlines: Federal workers are set to miss pay on Friday; the 15th marks the next critical pay cycle for federal and military employees.
  • “The president’s threats…seem to be having the opposite of the intended effect. Instead of scaring Democrats, it’s making them more resolute.” — Megan Scully (41:01)
• Megan Scully: The present standoff could set a new record for shutdown length.

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Shutdown update, OMB memo, and Trump’s back pay threat: 00:56–03:29
• Rep. Mike Bost on veterans and shutdown impacts: 06:48–13:19
• Trade and farm economy (U.S.–Canada/China): 12:04–14:23
• Back pay and federal worker hardship: 15:10–16:37
• Israel–Gaza peace process panel: 18:32–28:55
• Sen. Bill Cassidy on Senate’s impasse & ACA: 32:02–34:38
• GOP messaging, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s breakaway: 35:24–38:20
• Shutdown outlook with Megan Scully: 39:56–43:39

Notable Quotes (with Attribution and Timestamp)

• “There are some people that really don’t deserve to be taken care of. We don’t have a sense of who he means.” — Tyler Kendall, on Trump’s comments (02:11)
• “Every day of shutdown goes on, more pain is felt by more people.” — Rep. Mike Bost, House Veterans Affairs Chair (06:48)
• “No pay due is a very, very bad thing for those people who make sure our freedoms are taken care of.” — Rep. Mike Bost (16:33)
• “We can’t be working on [policy issues] while we’re playing these games and you’re holding things hostage.” — Rep. Mike Bost (10:20)
• “Canada has a 400% tariff on the United States. Hopefully we can work through to get fair trade like the President has always talked about…” — Rep. Mike Bost (12:18)
• “The president’s threats…seem to be having the opposite of the intended effect. Instead of scaring Democrats, it’s making them more resolute.” — Megan Scully (41:01)
• “I have to give credit to Donald Trump for keeping Netanyahu in the game… Without us there would be no peace.” — Rick Davis (22:01)
• “Any time you destabilize a leadership…another group…can be worse.” — Jeannie Shan Zaino (28:55)
• “There’s a complete breakdown of trust…Chuck Schumer could end this tomorrow if he wants to end it.” — Sen. Bill Cassidy (32:02)

Summary Table of Important Segments

| Segment | Start | Key Topic | |--------------------------------------------------|--------|---------------------------------------------------------| | Shutdown context, OMB memo, President’s threat | 00:56 | Back pay uncertainty, pressure point for workers | | Rep. Mike Bost interview | 06:48 | Veterans’ services, farm trade, political impasse | | Israel-Gaza Peace Talks analysis | 18:32 | Diplomatic urgency, obstacles, U.S. mediation | | Sen. Bill Cassidy on Senate/ACA | 32:02 | CR extension, health care subsidy debate | | GOP messaging & Marjorie Taylor Greene dissent | 35:54 | Party discipline vs internal rifts | | Shutdown outlook with Megan Scully | 39:56 | Voting prospects, impact on workers, possible duration |

Tone and Language

Panelists and interviewees speak plainly but with urgency, expressing frustration, compassion for workers and veterans, and sometimes partisan fervor, reflecting Washington's current hard-edged atmosphere. Quips and personal anecdotes (e.g., Rep. Bost recalling his Marine days) anchor the conversation, while policy experts sound pragmatic but increasingly alarmed at the lack of negotiation.

Conclusion

This episode of Balance of Power underlines the rising stakes of the federal shutdown, as President Trump breaks with precedent by threatening no back pay for furloughed workers. The political stalemate is hardened by partisan distrust, while policy experts and lawmakers warn of deepening pain for ordinary Americans. At the same time, the administration’s efforts to resolve international crises and manage trade tensions contribute to a sense that the U.S. is on a knife’s edge—economically, diplomatically, and politically.