Trump Ups Pressure on Venezuela

Summary

Balance of Power – “Trump Ups Pressure on Venezuela”

Podcast: Balance of Power (Bloomberg)
Date: December 12, 2025
Main Participants: Joe Mathieu (Host), Kailey Leinz (Bloomberg), Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg), Adam Farrer (Bloomberg Economics), Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), Rick Davis (Republican Strategist), Jeannie Shan Zaino (Bloomberg Contributor)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into the U.S. government’s intensified pressure campaign against Venezuela, spotlighting the recent seizure of an oil tanker linked to the Maduro regime and U.S. sanctions’ broader implications. The conversation extends to Congress with Rep. Jim McGovern’s War Powers resolution seeking to restrain presidential military action, a discussion of the mounting dysfunction in U.S. lawmaking, the ongoing battle over health care, and a segment on partisan battles around redistricting in Indiana. Throughout, the episode maintains a brisk, news-forward tone punctuated by expert analysis and memorable commentary.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The Seized Venezuelan Oil Tanker and U.S. Pressure Tactics

[01:03–04:58]

• Background: The U.S. recently seized a large oil tanker in the Caribbean as part of a new sanctions phase targeting oil revenues that sustain Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
• Bloomberg’s Tyler Kendall explains that this action is just “the first step in a new phase for the US as it puts pressure on Venezuela, but also Maduro” ([02:47]).
  • The U.S. Treasury is rolling out expanded sanctions, targeting more companies, ships, and Maduro’s close associates.
  • Venezuela is bracing for more seizures and rerouting crude oil shipments (mainly to China, its key buyer).
  • Data cited: 80% of Venezuela’s export revenue comes from oil; in 2025, they exported ~750,000 barrels per day, with nearly half going to China.
  • The seized ship is part of the so-called “dark fleet,” able to carry 2 million barrels. It's carrying 1.85 million barrels, mainly crude destined for China.

Notable Quote:

“This really marks the first step in a new phase for the US ... trying to essentially cut off the oil revenues for Maduro in a bid to get him to relinquish control.”
– Tyler Kendall ([02:47])

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2. Logistical and Legal Ramifications: What Happens to the Seized Oil?

[04:58–09:37]

• Adam Farrer (Senior Geo-Economics Analyst):
  • The seized tanker is too large for Houston’s port and will be anchored offshore, awaiting a “very complicated and messy legal process” ([05:55]).
  • Seizure is based more on the tanker’s Iranian associations than Venezuelan, complicating any legal justification to seize the oil.
  • “Shadow fleet” tankers switch off tracking devices and spoof destinations; after U.S. special forces boarded, the tanker’s AIS transponder was reactivated.
  • Ownership, cargo destination, and ultimate fate remain murky—could take “days, weeks, months, or years” ([06:27]).

Memorable Moment:
Joe comments on the surreal drama:

“If they make the Netflix movie, Adam Farrer is featured.”
– Joe Mathieu ([09:37])

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3. Congressional Pushback: War Powers Resolution on Venezuela

[11:58–16:39]

• Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA; House Rules Comm. Ranking Member):

  • Introducing a War Powers Resolution to force Congress to authorize any military moves against Venezuela.
  • Bipartisan support, including Republican Reps. Massie, Bacon, and Marjorie Taylor Greene.
  • “Not a Democratic initiative ... this is a bipartisan effort by those of us who actually believe the Constitution means something” ([12:51]).

• Motivation Behind U.S. Policy:

  • “Is it regime change or something else?” asks Joe.

  • McGovern bluntly claims, “Yeah, I think it's oil, quite frankly. I think this president is not about promoting human rights. He doesn't give a damn about democracy.” ([14:16])

  • McGovern accuses Trump of acting out of financial interest, highlighting the history of U.S. intervention in Latin America being profit-driven, not humanitarian.

  • He warns about scope creep and costs:

  “Wars are easy to get into. They're hard as hell to get out of ... and then we find ourselves in a quagmire that we can't get out of.”
  – McGovern ([13:41])

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4. Defining “Acts of War” and Concerns Over Mission Clarity

[15:10–16:21]

• McGovern argues that not only seizing tankers and bombing drug boats, but also possibly killing survivors constitutes acts of war and questions whether Congress is asking the right questions or getting clear answers:

  “It appears that we are guilty of serious human rights crimes by actually bombing survivors who are begging for help ... Congress ought to be demanding a clearly defined mission in terms of what he is doing in Venezuela.”
  – McGovern ([15:50])

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5. Dysfunction in Congress & Health Care Stalemate

[16:21–22:08]

• McGovern decries a “non-functioning Congress,” blaming Republican leadership for prioritizing “trivial issues” over real needs like health care affordability ([16:39]).
• Discusses failed recent efforts in both the Senate and House to reform or patch health care access—both Democratic and Republican plans stalled.
  • Democrats want to extend Obamacare subsidies.
  • Republicans propose Health Savings Accounts (HSAs)—McGovern calls this “not enough.”
  • Multiple discharge petitions (a technique for bypassing leadership to force a floor vote) now in play; any fix is delayed to Jan 2026.
  • McGovern urges immediate extension of ACA tax credits to avoid millions losing coverage.

Notable Quotes:

“Health care ought to be considered a fundamental human right for everybody in this country.”
– McGovern ([18:59])

“A functioning Congress means that we do the work of the American people ... if the Republicans have a plan, then bring the plan to us, let's debate it and vote on it.”
– McGovern ([17:34])

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6. Is Obamacare Broken?

[21:09–22:08]

• Responding to listener criticism:

  “I think it's not perfect. But it is better than the alternative, which is no aca. ... If we extended the tax credits, it's affordable. But as I said, we, we need to have a bigger conversation. Look at, if it was up to me, we would have a Medicare for all system.”
  – McGovern ([21:29])

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7. Redistricting Showdown in Indiana: Trump’s Influence Checked

[24:08–34:43]

• Context: Indiana’s Republican Senate rejected a Trump-backed congressional map viewed as a blatant power play to gain two more GOP seats, despite Trump winning the state by nearly 20 points in 2024.

• Rick Davis: Main reasons for the rebuff:

  • Institutional resistance to midterm redistricting
  • Lawmakers resented perceived threats from Trump and outside groups
  • Concerns about creating too many marginal districts (“dummy mandering”)

• Jeannie Shan Zaino:

  • “The President and the vice president were heavily invested in flipping the state to get better pick up two extra seats. ... And for various reasons, you know, more than 20 Republicans said no.” ([27:52])
  • “There’s also a little bit of freedom here as the president’s poll numbers are plummeting and Republicans are feeling emboldened to say, hey, I can’t just follow this guy. I’ve got to watch my own back.” ([28:07])

• Influence and threats via organizations like Heritage Foundation may have backfired, damaging Trump’s standing even within GOP strongholds.

Notable Quote:

“I think this was an unforced error on the part of the president. If you want to play politics, there was a way to do this rather subtly ... Donald Trump went into this assuming that if he won these districts that he could pull them through in the midterm. That is not necessarily the case.”
– Jeannie Shan Zaino ([31:38])

• Both speakers agree: This is likely to impact redistricting debates nationwide, as more states consider whether overreach could backfire.

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8. Epstein Files Deadline Looms

[34:43–36:44]

• Amid political wrangling, Dems are releasing new pictures from the Epstein case.
• A legal deadline is approaching for the White House to release full files; speculation is the administration will try to withhold some files under “active investigation.”
• Rick Davis: “I get the impression it's kind of fallen off the front page to most Americans. But ... there are a lot of people, especially in maga, want to see the truth.” ([36:23])

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Timeline of Important Segments

| Timestamp | Content | |:--|:--| | 01:03–04:58 | Background on Venezuela tanker seizure, details of U.S. pressure campaign (Tyler Kendall) | | 04:58–09:37 | Logistics, legality, and confusion over the seized oil (Adam Farrer) | | 11:58–16:39 | Rep. Jim McGovern on War Powers Act, Trump’s motives in Venezuela, human rights concerns | | 16:39–22:08 | Congressional dysfunction, health care debate, ACA tax credits (McGovern) | | 22:08–24:00 | Transition to Indiana redistricting | | 24:08–34:43 | Panel analysis: Indiana's redistricting defeat—Trump's overreach, national ramifications (Davis, Zaino) | | 34:43–36:44 | Looming Epstein files deadline, political implications (Davis, Zaino) |

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Notable Quotes

• Tyler Kendall ([02:47]):
  “This really marks the first step in a new phase for the US ... trying to essentially cut off the oil revenues for Maduro in a bid to get him to relinquish control.”
• Rep. Jim McGovern ([14:16]):
  “Yeah, I think it's oil, quite frankly. I think this president is not about promoting human rights. He doesn't give a damn about democracy.”
• McGovern ([13:41]):
  “Wars are easy to get into. They're hard as hell to get out of ... and then we find ourselves in a quagmire that we can't get out of.”
• Jeannie Shan Zaino ([31:38]):
  “I think this was an unforced error on the part of the president. ... Donald Trump went into this assuming that if he won these districts that he could pull them through in the midterm. That is not necessarily the case.”

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Tone and Style

The episode balances rapid-fire policy analysis with a conversational, sometimes sardonic style. Guests and hosts freely attribute political maneuvers to self-interest or ego, especially regarding Venezuela policy—no shying away from strong opinions or pointed critique. The mood combines urgency over unfolding global events with cynicism about D.C. gridlock and the machinations of power.

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Summary Takeaway

The episode casts Trump’s Venezuela escalation as both a significant shift in U.S. foreign policy (with congressional and legal implications) and a window into broader trends: domestic political polarization, hobbled legislative processes, and party infighting—culminating in a rare bipartisan pushback against executive overreach. Interwoven with headline analysis are reminders of how policy choices reverberate for ordinary Americans—over health care, redistricting, and government accountability.

Transcript

[Joe Matthew]

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[Joe Matthew]

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[Joe Matthew]

Podcasts or you made it to Friday welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power with the AI hangover on Wall street and a holiday party hangover here in Washington. It better be Friday on Bloomberg Radio satellite radio channel 121 and streaming live on YouTube. Check it out right now. Search Bloomberg Business News Live. Unless you're ahead of the game, you might have YouTube TV flip over Bloomberg Originals. We'll meet you in the studio as we try to get our heads around what in the world is happening with this tanker that was seized in the Caribbean and we're learning new information about it right now. By the way, one of the coolest things we're going to do this in a minute. The map go function on the terminal. You can actually track that tanker just like you can any ship that's sailing its way around the world. President was asked about this a couple days ago. Now remember we seized the ship. What happens to the oil on board? He said, well, I guess I know we're going to keep it. Here's what he said.

[Jim McGovern]

We're interested in the siege of this tanker.

[Joe Matthew]

What happens to the oil on that ship? Well, we keep it I guess. Well, you have to follow the tanker.

[Jim McGovern]

You know, you're a good Desmond.

[Rick Davis]

Just follow the tank, follow it.

[Joe Matthew]

Get a helicopter, follow the tanker.

[Rick Davis]

Is it true?

[Joe Matthew]

But we're gonna. I guess soon we're gonna keep the it's the best I assume. Looks like we are by the way. And I don't know that we're going to be able to burn that oil anytime soon. It looks like it's going to have to be held in escrow. We'll have more on that as we learn more. But Tyler Kendall is with us right now. We rescued her from the White House and pulled her into the Washington, D.C. bureau with the latest on this, Tyler, the story that Eric Martin broke has evolved quite a bit. And he's saying now it's just the beginning. So this is going to be a new reality, I guess, for us.

Right?

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Exactly.

[Joe Matthew]

Some incredible reporting from our colleague, people familiar telling Bloomberg News that this really marks the first step in a new phase for the US as it puts pressure on Venezuela, but also Maduro. And this phase has to do with trying to essentially cut off the oil revenues for Maduro in a bid to get him to relinquish control. And that's really why we're going to be watching this closely, how it could evolve because the Treasury Department earlier this week moved to sanction additional oil companies, additional sanctions tankers, and also some close associates of Maduro. So our understanding is Venezuela is actually preparing for there to be additional seizures of ships. And that's going to be really important to watch here. In fact, our reporting goes further than that, saying that the state oil company is trying to figure out alternate routes to make sure that they can get the crude to China, which of course is going to be a big factor in this since China is such a huge buyer of the this Venezuelan oil. In fact, I pulled some of the data. About 80% of Venezuela's export revenue comes from oil. And on average, they're exporting about 750,000 barrels per day this year, with nearly half of that going to Beijing.

Incredible. So, you know, there could be five or six more based on what we're hearing. We sanctioned six more ships. Reuters is reporting a little more here. This tanker is too large to enter Houston's port. They're going to have to anchor this thing way off the coast and offload the oil. This is potentially a little more complicated than we were bargaining for here.

Right. And it's a lot of oil. So this particular tanker, we've been discussing this on the program, it's part of what's known as the dark fleet that helps to support Venezuelan oil exports. This particular tanker, also Iranian oil exports, has the capacity for 2 million barrels. Reuters reporting. Apparently, according to the data and the satellite imagery, there's 1.85 million barrels on this particular ship. And again, the type of crude that is on it is typically does go to China. So just another wrinkle to follow here. Now, we heard President Trump saying that he thinks that we will keep it. We should know yesterday at the White House press briefing. The White House press secretary Caroline Levitt did say that the US does intend to seize the oil.

Fascinating stuff. Have you done map go. Have you seen how it's awesome. We were looking at the ships lined up at the ports coming out of COVID now we're following tankers that we've seized. It's all right there on the terminal. Tyler, thank you so much. We'll have more from Tyler Kendall coming up a little bit later in our second hour here on Balance of Power. Keep that in mind. If you're, if you're a terminal user, go there now because we're going to talk this through with Adam Farrer who pointed me to this yesterday. Our friend from Bloomberg Economics, senior geo economics analyst who worked in a prior White House spending some time on this very issue. There've been a lot of questions about the legality and so forth, but also the logistics. And that's what we wanted to talk about with Adam, who joins us here in studio. Mr. Ferrer, it's great to have you with us as always. On the Friday edition, Reuters updates the news you had suggested maybe Galveston somewhere. This ship is going, apparently Houston is the answer, but it's too big to get it in the port. What are they going to do?

[Adam Farrer]

So that's not unusual. I mean this is a VLCC vessel as Tyler just went through, 1.8 million barrels of oil on board. I think the, the reality is those ships ports aren't built for those ships to come in. Those ships stay at offshore piers usually to load and in this case it will anchor off at normal Anchorage facility position. And that's where it will sit while a very complicated and messy legal process unfurls to determine the, the long term position for the ship itself and the oil.

[Joe Matthew]

Wow. Do we have to hang on to the oil while this goes through the courts? The president seemed pretty nonchalant about this. Yeah, I said we're going to take it and we'll burn it.

[Adam Farrer]

So we're missing a lot of details right now about how the Department of Justice plans to put forward their case on the seizure of the oil itself. It's interesting. Reporting now points to the closed warrant, the seizure warrant for this ship actually being based on the vessel's association with Iran, not Venezuela. And so as a result, there are just open questions as to what case they're going to put forward on on the status of that Venezuelan oil and therefore questions as to whether the US really can seize it. But it will be likely held on the vessel and then Pumped off and held in storage tanks until a court determines what to do with it. But what's also interesting is the vessel itself. Depending on legal wrangling and lots of questions about who's its actual owner, who chartered the vessel, whether the flag state was real, you know, the flag of the vessel, who it was registered to, the vessel could return to service relatively quickly or could just sit for days, weeks, months, or years.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, so you just brought up a lot of questions. And if you're with us on YouTube, you can see US Special Forces seizing that vessel a couple of days ago. It was pretty remarkable to see them rappelling out of this Black Hawk helicopter. And now, of course, the question is, what the heck do we do with it? And the White House is pointing us to the idea that there will be more. Is it possible in a scenario like this to confirm ownership or in fact, where the boat was heading?

[Adam Farrer]

Well, so that's. You're hitting in on the exact problem in the maritime industry and why we talk about these shadow fleets. It feels like in the 21st century, 2025, we could just know these things, right? We've got satellites, we're monitoring, we're tracking. But even things like the ships AIs or automatic information system, which is intended to track the vessel, provide safety of navigation, ensure ships don't hit each other, but also allow us to know where ships are headed, can be spoofed, it can be turned off. And that's how we see these ships, playing games as to their ultimate destination.

[Joe Matthew]

This one had its transponder off for some time, right? That's right.

[Adam Farrer]

And as we saw, and for those who get on the terminal to look at map, go, you'll see that the ship all of a sudden turned its air sign right after it was boarded by this US team. Wow. And now we can track it very easily.

[Joe Matthew]

Going to Cuba, do we know?

[Adam Farrer]

Well, so that's what people are saying. But I think the ultimate destination may have been much further afield. I think China, as, as Tyler had mentioned, is certainly on the table. So we just don't know. And certainly, I promise you, that Coast Guard team that led this, this boarding is asking and interviewing every member of the crew, going through their logs and working out all those questions.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, if they, you know, when they storm the bridge, couldn't they tell based on the instruments on the sh it was going?

[Adam Farrer]

Yeah, certainly. I think they'd find, they'd find some correspondence with the charter, the person who hired the vessel to do this trip. But also, you know, these are These are sailors on board and professional captain. They're not going to sit there and you know, they may obfuscate a little bit to to hide certain elements if they're doing something particularly illegal, but the truth on that end will likely come out. The question is just when will we know about that?

[Joe Matthew]

This is wild stuff. I hope when they make the Netflix movie. Adam Farrer is featured. This is are a great source of information here from Bloomberg Economics. I really appreciate it. Fascinating. How much do we learn from Adam Farrer who knew when it came to shipping? Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Jim McGovern]

Hello.

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Hello.

[Jim McGovern]

I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast smart talks with IBM. I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.

[Rick Davis]

And CEO Arvind Krishna and I asked.

[Jim McGovern]

Him how can companies use AI to.

[Rick Davis]

Its fullest potential to create smarter business.

[Arvind Krishna]

My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive.

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah.

[Arvind Krishna]

So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology, is getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

[Rick Davis]

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smarttalks.

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[Joe Matthew]

You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa headline just went red. States to SUE TRUMP Over $100,000 H1B visa application fee. This has been a pretty controversial idea and it looks like it's going to court. Let's stick with Venezuela for a moment though, knowing that this boat has been seized. And look, we've got another six tankers that have been sanctioned so we could soon have our own shadow fleet. It sounds like the President talked about this yesterday at the White House.

[Jim McGovern]

Listen, it's about a lot of things, but one of the things it's about is the fact that they've allowed millions of people to come into our country from their prisons, from gangs, from drug.

[Joe Matthew]

Dealers, and from mental Institutions probably proportionately more than anybody else.

[Jim McGovern]

So it has to do with a lot of things. They've treated us badly, and I guess now we're not treating them so good.

[Joe Matthew]

That's where we start our conversation with a gentleman from Massachusetts who has authored a War Powers act that could soon hit the floor. Unless, of course, the speaker doesn't want to see that happen. This is a conversation that Democrats and Republicans are having here in Washington. Jim McGovern, Democrat from Massachusetts, ranking member on the House Rules Committee, with us in studio right now. It's really great to see you. Happy to be with you for coming in.

[Jim McGovern]

My pleasure.

[Joe Matthew]

You've introduced this War Powers Resolution some time ago. Will it hit the floor soon?

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah, we, I expect to force a vote on it next week. It'll be ripe to be considered on Wednesday or Thursday of next week. We have Republican co sponsors, Representative Massie and Representative Bacon and Marjorie Taylor Greene are on, are on board on this resolution as well. You know, again, this is not a Democratic initiative. I mean, these are, this is a bipartisan effort by those of us who actually believe the Constitution means something. And Congress has a role to play. And we don't want this president going into a war without a debate and without a vote and authorization by Congress.

[Joe Matthew]

Would this be specific to Venezuela or.

[Jim McGovern]

More broad, it would be specific to Venezuela because that's, you know, that's, that's the conflict we seem to be getting sucked into. Although, you know, the clip you just showed of the president, he went on to further threaten Colombia, you know, where he might do further action. But look, wars are easy to get into. They're hard as hell to get out of. And we have a history, you know, of talking tough, of getting sucked into these wars that cost, you know, billions of billions of dollars. And then we find ourselves in a quagmire that we can't get out of.

[Joe Matthew]

Now, I know for a fact that you understand the politics of the Caribbean better than, than most on Capitol Hill. You helped to begin normalizing relations with Cuba in the Obama administration. You've spent a lot of time in the region. So what do you think the president's aim is here? Is it regime change or, or something else?

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah, I think it's oil, quite frankly.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah.

[Jim McGovern]

I think this president is not about promoting human rights. He doesn't give a damn about democracy. And this is not about drugs. I mean, he pardoned the former president of Honduras, who was one of the biggest narco traffickers in the world, hundreds.

[Joe Matthew]

Of tons of cocaine.

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah. So I Think, I mean, there must be some financial interest in pursuing this policy for the President, because that's all he really cares about, making money for his family and money for those who are close to him. Look, our history in Latin America has been one of arrogance, has been one of putting profits ahead of human rights. And by the way, this administration doesn't give a damn about human rights. They just issued their national security strategy, and this is the first administration that has removed the word human rights from the. From the strategy. So this is about Donald Trump's ego, and it's about, I think, oil. I think that's, at the end of.

[Joe Matthew]

The day, I think that's why we're seasoned tankers.

[Jim McGovern]

You know, I. Again, it would be nice if we had a functioning Congress that would call his administration up and ask these questions like, why are we doing this? Why now, again, this is not about drugs. More drugs are coming from Mexico and China than from Venezuela. So what is the strategy here? And the president's threatening, you know, action on the ground in Venezuela. Now, that's. That's war. He's threatening to cut off, you know.

[Joe Matthew]

Air traffic, says we're going to do the land.

[Jim McGovern]

Right. So do you think that he's.

[Joe Matthew]

He would actually strike with brown targets in Venezuela?

[Jim McGovern]

Well, if he does, that's an act of war. That's an act of war.

[Joe Matthew]

Is blowing up drug boats not an act of war?

[Jim McGovern]

Well, I mean, I think it is. I mean, we have. Some of my colleagues are debating that issue. But we're not only. Not only blowing up drug boats. I mean, it appears that we are guilty of serious human rights crimes by actually bombing survivors who are begging for help. Again, you know, Congress ought to be demanding a clearly defined mission in terms of what he is doing in Venezuela. And up to this point, there have been very few question questions, and he's provided very few answers.

[Joe Matthew]

You said something interesting, a functioning Congress. Just back off what we're talking about here for a minute. We are in a world now where it does seem that discharge petitions and reconciliation bills are the only way to get anything done in the Congress. Do you feel that way? You're on the Rules Committee. You know how this works.

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah, I mean, this Congress under Republican leadership does not function. It is not working. It is a terrible disservice to the American people. This is a place where trivial issues are getting debated passionately and important ones not at all. I mean, we have a health care crisis right now. People are seeing their health care premiums skyrocket. People are deciding to go without health insurance next year because the costs are so high. We need to be talking about extending the ACA tax credits so that people can afford their health insurance. And we're not doing that. We're talking about stupid stuff, stuff that is probably not even going to go even be considered by the Senate. That is going nowhere. I mean, again, Congress, a functioning Congress, means that we do the work of the American people. And I'd like to thank, no matter, you know, what your politics may be, you know, making sure that we are addressing issues of affordability, which includes the cost of health care, are front and center. I mean, if the Republicans have a plan, then bring the plan to us. Let's debate it and vote on it.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah.

[Jim McGovern]

They've got nothing.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, let's talk about health care, because Republicans put up a bill in the Senate yesterday. It failed. Then the Democratic plan failed. The Democratic plan, of course, would extend Obamacare subsidies. The Republican plan produced by Bill Cassidy would have health savings accounts. Congressman, I spoke with Nicole Malia Takis yesterday, who has signed on to a bipartisan effort in the House D's and R's that would extend the subsidies, would add some eligibility controls as well, because someone like Nicole Malia Takis is not a fan of the Affordable Care act, as she told us yesterday. Let's listen. There's so much fraud here, which is why we think we have the proper balance. And this gives us enough time, by the way, to then work over the next year or two to be able to come up with something that can truly replace the Affordable Care act and bring costs down. Now, what the speaker and leadership are saying is that we're going to take up a health savings account measure which will help people, certainly with their medical costs. And I support that initiative, but it doesn't go far enough. Okay. But this is unlikely to see the floor unless the discharge petition makes that happen.

[Jim McGovern]

Even if we do the discharge petition route, we won't be able to get to it until probably in early January.

[Joe Matthew]

Sure.

[Jim McGovern]

My, my question to Representatives is like, where the hell have you been? I mean, you're, you're a Republican. Your party's in charge. We've been talking about this issue for months. This is not something before the shutdown.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Jim McGovern]

Since before the shutdown. Well, before. We've been talking about it during reconciliation. Right. So we go back months and months and months. And we were saying we've got to focus on this. And all we've been hearing from Republicans is like, oh, yeah, we'll get to it. We'll get to it. And now we're out of time. People are going to lose their health insurance. Health care ought to be considered a fundamental human right for everybody in this country. You know, I mean, you need health care. If you don't have health care, you end up in an emergency room.

[Joe Matthew]

Right.

[Jim McGovern]

You know, I mean, this is, this is crazy. So look, there are a number of discharge petitions that are going to, that have been introduced with various approaches to helping people afford their health insurance. I mean, let's figure out what the best one is and let's move on it. But the stalling and the excuses and the finger pointing, it has to end. You know, we, we have, we want to debate this issue. We want to vote on this issue. We want to help the millions of people in this country who are about to get screwed.

[Joe Matthew]

What's the conversation in Worcester, Massachusetts right now? If you stop in Kelly Square and ask somebody about their health insurance, are they seeing these increases in dropping off the rolls or are they saying, I can't afford it anyway? So to your point, I'm going to go to the emergency room.

[Jim McGovern]

So I mean, we're hearing some really terrible stories of people basically saying I can't afford my health insurance. Our office is getting inundated with calls. Look, people in Worcester just want us to do our job and they get it. There are differences between Democrats and Republicans, but at the end of the day they want us to get something done. You don't have to agree on everything to agree on something, but whatever that something is has to be about improving the quality of life for the people who live in Worcester and all around the country. And the problem with what some of the, what the Senate did on the Republican side is the stuff that they're proposing, you know, it doesn't mean anything in anybody's life. I mean, you know, saying I'm fixing health care, but in reality not fixing health care, not making it more affordable, well, that doesn't help anybody. Right. You know, we ought to have a larger discussion how we fix our entire health care system because it's a mess. It's too for profit oriented. But we're not going to do that in a week or two. Right? Right now we need to extend these tax credits so that millions of people don't see their premium skyrocket and millions don't lose their health insurance.

[Joe Matthew]

We've only got about a minute left here. Terminal user just wrote us. While we're talking, ask the congressman why the ACA failed that they designed. Maybe I can reframe that a bit. A lot of Republicans come on the air and they say this thing was never affordable. Obamacare itself has raised premiums. Is this plan broken?

[Jim McGovern]

No. Look, I think it's not perfect. Yeah, but it is better than the alternative, which is no aca. Right. I mean, the bottom line is millions and millions of people have now have coverage because of the Affordable Care Act. You know, if we extended the tax credits, it's, it's affordable. But as I said, we, we need to have a bigger conversation. Look at, if it was up to me, we would have a Medicare for all system. I mean, when I was the chairman of the Rules Committee, we were the first committee, neither the House or Senate, to do a hearing on Medicare for All. And I'll tell you, it was a very, very powerful hearing. But, you know, to fix health care holistically, you know, is going to take some time. In the meantime, let's extend those tax credits. Let's, let's, let's help people afford their health insurance.

[Joe Matthew]

Let's talk when the War Powers act hits the floor. We've got a lot more to talk about, Congressman. Let's do this next time at Coney Island.

[Jim McGovern]

All right. With you.

[Joe Matthew]

Onions or no?

[Jim McGovern]

With onions.

[Joe Matthew]

With onions. That's the only way to do hot.

[Jim McGovern]

Dogs in the world.

[Joe Matthew]

They really are, too. I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Congressman Jim McGovern of Massachusetts. This is Bloomberg. Stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.

[Jim McGovern]

Hello. Hello. I'm Malcolm Gladwell, host of the podcast.

[Rick Davis]

Smart talks with IBM.

[Jim McGovern]

I recently sat down with IBM's chairman.

[Rick Davis]

And CEO Arvind Krishna, and I asked.

[Jim McGovern]

Him, how can companies use AI to.

[Rick Davis]

Its fullest potential to create smarter business?

[Arvind Krishna]

My one advice to them, pick areas you can scale. Don't pick the shiny little toys on the side. For example, if anybody has more than 10% of what they had for customer service 10 years ago, they're already five years behind. If anybody is not using AI to make their developers who write software 30% more productive today with the goal of being 70% more productive.

[Jim McGovern]

Yeah. Wow.

[Arvind Krishna]

So we are not asking our clients to be the first experiment on it. We say you can leverage what we did. We are happy to bring out all our learnings, including what needs to change in the process. Because the biggest change is not technology. It's getting people to accept that there's a different way to do things.

[Rick Davis]

To listen to the full conversation, visit IBM.com smart talks.

[Joe Matthew]

You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.

[Joe Matthew]

You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station.

[Bloomberg Announcer]

You just say Alexa, you made it.

[Joe Matthew]

To the threshold of the weekend. And if you're in Indiana, you might be a little worried about federal funding. Has the president found the line on redistricting? That's the big question today in Washington after the latest swing at the ball failed in Indiana. This is the latest state attempting to redraw its congressional map to try to favor Republicans in the midterm elections. We've been through this started in Texas, went to California. They've all been bound up in court. But I guess not the case in Indiana because the State Senate, with 40 Republicans and 10 Democrats, decisively rejected this whole idea to refit the congressional map. We talked about this just a couple of days ago with Congressman Stutzman from Indiana. Here's what he told us. In Indiana, I think the maps were actually very favorable to the Democrats. If we're going to play partisan politics, Indiana is a 9.0state. And so the Republican friends in the state legislature there need to realize we're in a national battle here. This isn't just about Indiana. It's a national battle where we need to be sure that there's equal representation in Washington. For Hoosiers. Well, not so much. Let's assemble our panel for their take on it because this is an evolving story and it's one that we're going to be talking about probably for many more weeks to come with other states in the mix. See what they're doing in Virginia right now, the conversations that they're having even in New York. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shan Zaino is here, Democracy visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash center and Rick Davis, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Rick, how are we looking at this? Because if you read the commentary and the tip sheets in Washington, the angle that everyone is taking is Donald Trump finally hit the wall, that his influence has been checked by a Republican legislature. Is that the fact or is this just another stop on the road to rewriting congressional maps all over the country?

[Rick Davis]

I think it's probably more one stop on the road. I mean, there's obviously a lot more going on than just Indiana. And yet at the same time, I mean, the president and the vice president were heavily invested in flipping the state to get better pick up two extra seats. And so they kind of made it about them. Right. They didn't do this discreetly. They didn't say, you know, to the Senate pro tem, hey, Bray, you know, why don't you pick up a couple of seats? And that would really help us out in Washington and, and be great for the state of Indiana. They really hit these guys hard. And for various reasons, you know, more than 20 Republicans said no. And it wasn't just one person. It wasn't just a holdout. It was a pretty universal pushback from the Republicans there. And I think you could trace it to a lot of different reasons. One, some people just disagree with this kind of midterm redistricting, too. You know, a lot of people were threatened and didn't feel good about that and wanted to push back because they felt they were being treated poorly. Three, they worry about the consequences of diluting all these districts. You and I have talked about dumb redistricting. They are particularly worried about that where you got a Trump +10 district and all of a sudden, you know, you lose. So there, there were literally dozens of different reasons for people to vote the way they did. And yet it's certainly looking like a big rebuke to the president.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, it's hard to not see it that way, I guess. Jeannie, this is a 31 to 19 defeat in a state that Donald Trump won by almost 20 percentage points. Is there an opening here?

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Yeah. And I don't think Rick heard the president because the President said, oh, I didn't work too hard on that. I was barely involved in that. And what happened? Yeah, you know, the fact is, to Rick's point, there are a lot of reasons that people could have pushed back on this. One of them is just plain simple math. I mean, you. Look, Democrats are outperforming by 13%. And often special elections this year, if you take all those Republicans who are under 13% and then you say you're going to redistrict, you put people who might be safe at risk. So they. The math doesn't help this. But there's also the reality. If you're a Republican in Indiana and you're Looking at Washington, D.C. what are you seeing for the last few weeks? Republicans pushing back on the president with absolutely no repercussions from Epstein, Marjorie Taylor Greene, the Pete Hegseth issue, health care. I mean, the list goes on and on, not just taking on Donald Trump, but Mike Johnson as well. So I think there's also a little bit of freedom here as the president's poll numbers are plummeting and Republicans are feeling emboldened to say, hey, I can't just follow this guy. I've got to watch my own back. This is what happens. And so the President has to wake up to that. And there's not a lot he can do. My understanding is if they try to primary these folks, that's after the midterm. I don't know how this helps Donald Trump.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, a lot of questions about the fallout here. Hashtag pass the map. In a post on twitter yesterday morning, 10:30am it's been viewed almost 7 million times. This post was made when most people thought that it was likely to pass Heritage Action, that is Heritage Foundation. Rick. The post says President Trump has made it clear to Indiana leaders if the Indiana Senate fails to pass the map, all federal funding will be stripped from the state. Roads will not be paved, guard bases will close, major projects will stop. These are the stakes. And every no vote will be to blame. What's Indiana in for here, Rick?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, I must say, folks who I talked to who were involved in sort of monitoring what was going on in Indiana state legislature when that hit from the Heritage foundation, probably three Republicans at least switched their vote to vote against the measure because it angered him so much. So, I mean, I think all these things have consequences. Whether the President actually follows up on that. It wasn't a direct threat by the president. You know, he has a way of making these threats and then not living up to him. It's kind of the domestic version of Taco and, and the reality is all we can do is wait and see. Indiana is a core Republican state. Last thing you want is president, you know, sort of punishing Republicans for. For something that really is a non material issue to most everyday voters.

[Jim McGovern]

Mm.

[Joe Matthew]

It's another free Taco Friday, I guess. Jeannie. So is the story the opposite of what the President said to your point? He told reporters, you know, I wasn't really working on that. Did he in fact overplay his hand?

[Bloomberg Announcer]

I think he absolutely did. I think this was an unforced error on the part of the president. I think if you want to play politics, there was a way to do this rather subtly. You don't send the vice President out there to harangue people. You don't have your son going off on social media haranguing people. You know, I'm laughing when you're talking about this Heritage, Heritage tweet or social media. You know, Kevin Roberts has a lot of problems over at Heritage. But what, what do we think Donald Trump is going to say? Probably the same thing he said on the campaign trail about Project 2025. I don't know who these people are. I never made this threat. Never heard of the Heritage foundation or Kevin Roberts. You know, the whole thing is an unforced error on the part of the President and his team. We've always talked about the fact that redistricting at this point is a fraught endeavor, and you have to be careful what you wish for. Donald Trump went into this assuming that if he won these districts that he could pull them through in the midterm. That is not necessarily the case. He would be far better off focusing like a laser beam on fixing the economy and prices and inflation than he would by going out and redistricting, which seems to, at this point at least, have started to backfire on him with the loss of Indiana. They now look like they may just break even on this thing. If other Democratic states go further, they could even lose seats in this game. So this is not a good, a good situation for the Republicans to be, and it will probably be a wash in the end, but it's a waste of time. He should have focused on what he promised, which was his economic agenda. And his poll numbers are falling through the floor at this point.

[Joe Matthew]

Jeannie points us right back to Rick's dummy mandering. If Republicans were so turned off by this yesterday, Rick, does this impact efforts in other red states?

[Rick Davis]

It could. We've seen Kansas take a similar line, not really wanting to jump into this for some of the same reasons. And we've seen Democratic states, I mean, Maryland, the leadership in the state Senate there has actually sounded a lot like the leadership in Indiana. Democrats and Republicans can both feel the same way about monkeying with their districts. And so I do think there is, you know, like the physics of politics, an opposite and equal reaction. You know, California and Texas did their things and now everybody else is sort of, geez, do we really have to walk the plank on this? It's really not healthy for, for our state politics. And so let's see. I tend to agree with Jeannie that at the end of all this, you know, whether there's one or two seat advantage by either party is almost irrelevant to what we think is going to potentially happen in this election. And if you listen to the Republican National Committee chairman, he's predicting a dire outcome in the midterms. And so a couple of seats are probably not going to make that much, much difference.

[Joe Matthew]

Yeah. Wow. Hey, Jeannie, I'm going to throw you a curveball. You said something that got me thinking a couple of minutes ago. I believe it was Epstein. You know what nobody's talking about in Washington, that deadline to release the Epstein files that came from a discharge petition signed by the president is one week from today. I know that the Democrats are trickling out more pictures, more photographs today showing Bill Clinton, Woody Allen, Donald Trump. But are we going to see the files in a week?

[Bloomberg Announcer]

Alan Dershowitz, the list goes on, Joe. You know, Steve Bannon. Steve Bannon, it's like a really, really bad situation for the White House. I'm going to be curious to hear what the president has to say if he takes questions from reporters at I believe it's 3pm you'd know better than I do at this bill signing if he is going to take questions. I'm certain some of these pictures that the Democrats have released today, and there's a lot more to go are going to come up. And some of them, including some that I can't name, they don't show anything illegal, but certainly things that people will find disgusting. And so what does the president do? I believe we have the 19th, the 20th. They're going to have to make a decision. And of course, we have a law that he must release or the DOJ must release. My suspicion all along has been they will try to hide under an active investigation, but I'm not so sure certain that's going to be palatable at this point.

[Joe Matthew]

Just 30 seconds, Rick. Should Americans prepare to see these files unveiled next week?

[Rick Davis]

Yeah, I get the impression it's kind of fallen off the front page to most Americans. But obviously the run up to this on Friday of next week, we'll start to get more and more intensity around it, maybe even after today's presser with the president. 3. So, yeah, I think that there are a lot of people, especially in maga, want to see the truth.

[Joe Matthew]

Well, there you have it. That means everyone's going to be listening at 3. We'll see if the president's on time. Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, live from Washington. I'm Joe Matthew. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime [e-mail] if a Lenovo gaming computer is on your holiday list, don't shop around, just go directly to the source. Lenovo.com it's your last chance to score exclusive deals on the gaming PCs you want, like the Lenovo Legion Tower 5 Gen 10 gaming desktop and Lenovo Lock Gaming Laptop. So avoid all that shopping chaos and price comparing and just go directly to the source. Lenovo.com where PCs are up to 35% off. That's Lenovo.com Lenovo Lenovo this is Michael Lewis from Against the Rules, the Big Short Companion this podcast is brought to you by FedEx the new power Move. You know those people who show up late to meetings or events on purpose to make themselves look like they are so busy? That's really the old power move. The new power moves are calling out logistical problems before they arise, or knowing every detail about your shipment every step of the way. FedEx the new power Move.