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- [00:00]
Duke Energy Announcer
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Podcast Host/Producer
Bloomberg Audio Studios Podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg business app Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
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Joe Matthew
President Trump live at the White House there on Bloomberg Radio. Thanks for joining us here on the Wednesday edition of Balance of Power. The president making a lot of news and generating a lot of headlines in what was in fact a signing ceremony for in fact, the president's just now, if you're with us on YouTube, you can see he's putting Sharpie to paper. The Secure America act. This is the $70 billion that was passed through reconciliation. And there you have a big round of applause from leaders on both sides of the Capitol. I won't say the aisle. This is a Republican celebration here, both chambers, Senate and House, helping the president celebrate this moment. Is he making more news? James, are we done? Looks like we're done. All right. Price is being ushered out of the Oval Office. We wanted to make sure we spent some time listening to the president here who just said we have been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Announcing it, he says, for the first time, because Iran, quote, just figured it out, unquote. They just figured it out. So now that they figured it out, I can tell you spending time each night taking out millions of barrels of oil through the strait. Interesting. President talked about quite a bit here and suggesting that we are potentially on the verge of a peace deal still, but saying as well that the resumption of military activity is in the offing. The president saying we will be attacking Iran hard. He was asked as well about the inflation data this morning. And you're going to be hearing this played back more than once. The president saying the inflation numbers were great. I love the inflation. He was making a point that he loves seeing these numbers, I guess because they will soon be coming down once the war with Iran is over. Taken out of context, those remarks could be potent. Want to spend some time? And we're going to connect with Tyler Kendall at the White House in just a moment. But Becca Wasser joins us right now for more on what we're hearing about and learning about when it comes to the war with Iran. She is of course lead defense analyst at Bloomberg Economics. And Becca, it's great to see you. We still don't know what hitting hard means, do we?
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Becca Wasser
No, we don't. And we don't know whether he is going to hit at all. But if we are thinking about what the range of options options are, we've seen these continued self defense strikes that seem to be against proportionate targets. Reportedly things like air defense systems, ground control stations that are needed to help with some of the drone attacks. Those are the types of things that we've already seen. He also said that it was going to be a very powerful attack last night and it was largely after those same target sets. But if you wanted to expand it out to something else and hit hard, there could be an expansion to more basic civilian infrastructure, whether that is communication, nodes, energy infrastructure, going after some of that energy infrastructure on Carg island like in some of the earlier days of the ongoing conflict. There's a whole wide range of options. But I think the bigger question is is he actually going to strike? You said it best. Are we on the verge of a deal or are we on the verge of more strikes? And we're in this limbo Once again.
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Joe Matthew
What do you make of the idea of moving millions of barrels of oil through the strait? This is something that Bloomberg Economics has been watch very closely. What's, what do we actually know?
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Becca Wasser
Well, I'm old enough to remember Project Freedom, which was the one day effort that the US military had to try and escort ships through the strait and get them out so that they could alleviate some of the pain on the
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Joe Matthew
global front in 24 hours.
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Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
I think.
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Becca Wasser
Yeah, it was less than that and in part because it led to an exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz that risked the very, very fragile ceasefire at that time because this was much earlier in the ceasefire. I think what we've seen now is this a little bit less fanfare effort to try and provide guidance through the strait by basic communication with ships who have their transponders turned off as well as overwatch by US aircraft, helicopters, drones to try and ensure that those ships were moving safely. And I think that has been a quiet effort that's been ongoing and has, according to the President at least had some success.
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Joe Matthew
Wow. And is this every night when he says millions? Do we have any idea how to further quantify that?
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Becca Wasser
I don't have any specific figures, but if he says every night, my guess is it probably is every night because it's probably in dribs and drabs you're not going to have a convoy of five or ten ships moving all at once. That's a little bit too obvious. So it's probably like a one ship, two ship. And so slowly over time that can definitely have an impact. You know, does it reach the level that he says? I don't quite.
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Joe Matthew
That's fascinating. And to suggest that he can now announce this because Iran finally figured it out. Do we know what he's referring to?
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Becca Wasser
I don't know what he's referring to exactly there, but I do wonder if it is somewhat related to the incident that we saw yesterday with the Apache. With the Apache which perhaps was maybe doing some basic patrols, perhaps was providing overwatch for one of those ships. And then there was the incident with the Iranian drone, which reportedly went up on the canopy of the Apache helicopter and ended up in the cockpit between the two pilots.
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Matt Robeson
Wow.
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Joe Matthew
Absolutely incredible stuff, Becca, thank you. In the clutch as always. Becca Wasser at Bloomberg Economics. Before we get to Tyler on the North Lawn, let's go back to what the president just said about his intentions with Iran.
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President Trump
Listen, we're going to be attacking them and attacking them very hard.
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Joe Matthew
Resuming moment.
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President Trump
Yeah, well, we are based on the helicopter, I guess we have the right
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Joe Matthew
to do that based on the helicopter referring again to that Apache that went down just about what, 24 hours, maybe a little bit more than that, and resumed the exchange of fire between the US And Iran. Tyler is out on the North Lawn right now having just heard from the president in the Oval Office. Tyler, we're moving millions of barrels through the strait, it sounds like every night according to the president, or maybe it's millions in total. Do we know any more about this?
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Tyler Kendall
No, Joe, at this point, that's the president's comments. As we know that this White House has been trying to prioritize making sure that oil can flow to the market and get the Strait of Hormuz re opened. But there was just so much accompanied inside of President Trump's remarks there. But perhaps most notably is that there is still this huge risk of escalation on the table. And the president didn't seem to rule out that that risk could extend to hitting Iranian infrastructure and energy sites as well, depending on if Iran comes to the table in perhaps a more meaningful way. So a lot of developments to track here. The president telling reporters in part, quote, I'm not going to say that to you, but I could do that in reference to what those military strikes could
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Joe Matthew
ultimately look really something. We should check oil prices here. Tyler because they are kicking higher. And of course we've seen triple digits. New York crude, the WTI is back above $90. It's $91 a barrel, up 3%. Brent's up about 3% as well to almost 94. Asked about the inflation numbers, Tyler, that was really something. And I can just imagine the Democratic operatives who are making ads out of this right now. The inflation numbers were great. I love the inflation. What did he mean?
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Tyler Kendall
Well, he then went on it felt like to come around on those comments and he said that inflation will come down once the conflicts subside. So perhaps he did realize after he said that the inflation numbers were great after today's data showed us that inflation accelerated in May to the fastest pace in more than three years, driven in large part by those price spikes related to the conflict in Iran and outstripping Americans pay gains according to the data earlier this morning. Of course, as you well know, this has become a political issue. The conflict in Iran, it dovetails foreign policy and domestic policy as the economy and affordability remains Americans top focus. Even before the conflict in Iran started, we were talking so much about the word affordability and this White House has repeatedly tried to deploy measures to help bring down prices. Perhaps the one that they've yet to tap yet is that federal gas tax holiday that we know had been floated Instead. The administration has really urged Americans patience, saying that it will be worth it in order to ensure a future of Iran without a nuclear weapon. But it does appear that the White House's patience at this point is wearing very thin in order to announce such a deal that would encapsulate that end goal for this president. And perhaps that's behind some of the rhetoric that we're getting out of this White House today.
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Joe Matthew
Got it, Tyler. In our last moment here, I've got to ask you about FISA 702 set to expire Friday. The president weighing in on Truth Social. He's been busy typing today making it clear that Bill Pulte will start June 19. But he's actively looking for a permanent nominee. Are we going to get a short term solution? Is that what he's asking leaders for?
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Tyler Kendall
It feels like it. Right, Joe. And it is our understanding that House Speaker Mike Johnson was here again at the White House today to help further these discussions. That is how down to the wire it is becoming. We know that section 07:02 under FISA does expire this Friday. You heard President Trump in that post on Truth Social reiterate the urgency here, particularly as the US Faces a whole slew of high profile events like the 250th anniversary this summer. He'd like to see it done before then.
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Joe Matthew
Can almost see the claw over Tyler's head.
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President Trump
Almost.
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Joe Matthew
Tyler, thank you. Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
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Duke Energy Announcer
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- [10:50]
Podcast Host/Producer
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
- [11:09]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Oil prices higher, stocks being dragged down as we look to what seems to be an escalating situation in the Middle east after the US Already conducted strikes against Iran yesterday in retaliation for the downed Apache helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump saying that more attacks are on their way. This was the president in the Oval Office earlier today.
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President Trump
We hit him hard yesterday and we're going to hit him again hard today. In case you miss it, in case you don't turn on your television set and we'll see what happens with the deal. We were, we were really close to a deal, but they keep tapping us along. They keep playing us for suckers because you know what? They dealt with some very stupid presidents
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Joe Matthew
tapping us along as the president made clear on Truth Social that the regime is simply taking too much time in negotiations. And this is where we start our conversation with an important voice in foreign policy and in domestic politics. That would be Nikki Haley, the former ambassador to the United nations, former governor of South Carolina, chair at Hudson Institute, founder of Stand for America, the advocacy group. It's wonderful to have you with us, Ambassador. Thanks for joining us today on Bloomberg. What are your thoughts then about this active conversation right now? Is this the only recourse at the moment to gain more leverage to hasten an agreement with more strikes?
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Nikki Haley
First of all, I think you have to look at, you always have to look at what your adversary is thinking. For them, they're not looking to win. They're looking to survive. So there's a difference. What they think is if they can put enough political pressure on this administration, if they can Put enough economic pressure on this administration, they think the US Will cave to a weak deal Iran has. This is the same playbook Iran has always done. They stall, they start talking, they make you think you're going to get a deal. They throw cold water on it. And all the while, they're strategizing, they're rearming, they're getting ready for the next conflict. Iran was never going to do a deal. They are never going to get rid of their nuclear ambitions. That's their number one priority now. They've actually found more leverage with the Strait of Hormuz. And so they don't want to go back to what it was pre war. They now want to have sovereignty over the Street. They want to make sure that they have the threat of nuclear ambition, and they're going to continue to do that. So I think Trump was right to strike yesterday. But the idea of a deal, that's just not in their cards. They. One of the surprising things that's not talked about, they have excavated 50 of the 69 tunnels that hold missiles. They're rearming now. That's not enough. We've weakened Iran tremendously. But it shows you how they think.
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Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, so if Iran is never going to make a deal, and the US Is now obviously bogged down in the Middle east for some time, in the absence of of one, are we coming out on the losing side of this, Ambassador?
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Nikki Haley
No. The only option is to win. Trump has to finish what he started. And the key is stop waiting for a deal, finish it. They're very weak. But what you have to do is go after their finances, what has not. And what the administration should do is go after Russia and China. Russia right now is providing them drones. China says they want this hostility to end, yet they are providing them MANPADs for air defense systems. They provided satellite imagery so that you can hit our military bases. If you go after those two, they're providing money. If you go after those two, that's going to take away Iran's ability to help. The second thing is you do have to acknowledge Carg island is where they get their revenues from. And at some point, that's going to have to be addressed. But what they're doing is they're creating a distraction. And what they've said is, well, Israel is hitting Lebanon. No, Israel is hitting Hezbollah, the terrorist regime in Lebanon. The Lebanese people don't like Hezbollah. And so the key is, is Iran's going to keep making excuses. They're going to keep creating distractions. At the end of the day, they just want to survive. They just want to make it another day.
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Joe Matthew
Well, we, you just said a lot and we need to unpack that. So the United States seizes Carg Island. That would involve troops, as we understand, in an operation that, that could bring some risk but would have the point. You're making a very direct impact on the economy in Iran. When you say go after China and Russia, is that sanctions? Because we find repeatedly that sanctions don't change behavior with these two.
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Nikki Haley
You have to truly hold them accountable. You have to make sure that they feel the pain. You know, and a lot of that is a lot of the oil that China would buy from Iran, they wouldn't pay Iran directly. They do it through shadow accounts through the uae. You have to go to UAE and say, look, we're working well together. You can't keep helping China help Iran. All of these adversarial things, those are the ones you go after. The point is, if you take your money away from Iran, they can't build nuclear production. They can't build, they can't mine the strait. They can't fund Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis. You know, right now Iran's talking about now starting to hit Israeli boats in the Red Sea. They're not stopping. Their intention is to keep being aggressive so that they can get what they want, which is sanction relief, to unfreeze the assets and to try and get the country to see them as someone they need to be dealt with.
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Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, as if they heard you, Ambassador. The US Just announced sanctions on quote, unquote, clandestine in banking in China, linked to Iran sanctioning some Chinese and Hong Kong based individuals. So perhaps that would be a start to what you're getting at here. But I want to go back to something else you mentioned. That's Lebanon and Israel's conduct there. Your point is well understood that it's Hezbollah that they're targeting. But obviously there has been a lot of associated collateral damage. And I wonder if you view Israel as now being actually a very complicating factor in the path forward. If Israel's desires and objectives are diverging
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Nikki Haley
from ours, the US partnering with Israel and what they did to really bring Iran to its knees was so important and so helpful for the national security of the US Of Israel and of the west, so very important that that happened. Israel has to defend itself. But think just since the April cease fire, what you've had is the Hezbollah has struck Northern Israel over 2000 times with rockets and drones. What country would put up with that? What country would allow that. So it's not that Israel was doing this. It's Hezbollah. So Iran is trying to make this gray by saying, oh, they're hitting Lebanon. This is not the case. Lebanon is not the issue. It is Hezbollah. That's the issue. And you can't let this terrorist activity that is associated with Iran continue, continue. And I think that the US And Israel are partners. I think that while Netanyahu and Trump may disagree at times, I think they agree on a lot more than they disagree. And I think at the end of the day, they both have the same end goal. And so I think that partnership stays strong.
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Joe Matthew
It's amazing that we're having this conversation in June of 2026. Remembering the no new wars mantra that followed the Trump campaign throughout his reelection, there's amazing analysis from our colleagues at Bloomberg Economics found. Since taking office last January, President Trump has Greenlit at least 14,418 military strikes around the globe. I'm just curious, if you were sitting behind the Resolute desk, would you have started this war?
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Nikki Haley
I think that Trump did the right thing. Iran was the weakest they had ever been. If Trump wouldn't have gotten involved, they just would have gone back to doing what they're doing. Keep in mind, you have to know the ideology of that regime. In 1979, they called the US the Great Satan, and they said, death to America. Believe adversaries when they say they want to kill you. I personally was targeted. There was a hitman that was actually paid money on US Soil to kill me. They are coming to America to kill Americans. This is a regime that finds that their messiah is coming. And in the meantime, their struggles are supposed to be real. And they're supposed to cause chaos and brutality and murder in the process. You can't change an ideology like that. So they were going to rebuild. They were going to continue to cause harm. They were going to continue to put national security threats on Americans. Over 1,000Americans have been injured and killed from Iran. We shouldn't even be allowing one. This had to happen. Now he just has to finish what he started.
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Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
So you see the national security justification for this particular excursion, as the president has called it. He also has suggested that once this Iran situation is over, whenever that is, he may turn his sights to Cuba. And I wonder if you see that as urgent, what you would expect the US to do when it comes to Cuba and a regime that clearly is teetering on the brink in the US
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Nikki Haley
Put in their national security strategy to make the Western Hemisphere a priority. I Think that you saw that with, you know, extracting Maduro in Venezuela. The Venezuelans are going to see so much progress with that. That was something that needed to happen. They deserve freedom and they're going to get it. What you're seeing in Cuba is a little bit different because Cuba doesn't have a Delsey Rodriguez, a number two, that can go and run things. Cuba doesn't have a Machado ahead of an opposition that can go forward. So I don't think that this administration is going to go militarily into Cuba. I think they're just going to put pressure through sanctions and weigh them down. You know, they already stopped the oil that was going from Venezuela to Cuba. They had Mexico pull back on the oil that was going to Cuba. And now Cuba's feeling the pain. They can only take so much pain. What they're going to want is sanction relief. They're going to want to get the Cuban economy going again. But unfortunately they're going to have to continue to deal with the people that are leading Cuba right now. That's not going to be an issue. That's not going to be something that they can change.
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Joe Matthew
Yeah. There have been questions about whether we could sustain action in two parts of the world militarily like this because we have a massive buildup in the Middle east that's standing by to do what you're suggesting, which is to finish the job. If in fact we went pedal to the metal and took the advice of Dickey Haley, how long would it take?
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Nikki Haley
Stop negotiating with them. That's never going to happen. We've lost time. Go finish what you started. I think within a week to two weeks.
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Joe Matthew
Is that right?
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Nikki Haley
They could.
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Joe Matthew
Long before the military.
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Nikki Haley
A week to two weeks. They could. It would take them the amount of time to extract the nuclear enrichment that they have.
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Joe Matthew
Seize Car Island.
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Nikki Haley
You'll have to have special forces there. To go and hold Cargillen is going to obviously take a little bit longer. But this is one where they need to be focused and mission driven on, go after the revenues that are going to Iran and that's the only way to get rid of the regime. And then the Iranian people have no way to defend themselves. They've killed thousands of people in the streets and made examples of them. What's happened in the past is the US has actually helped countries so that the people can rise up. That's the way that this is going to end is when the people feel safe enough to rise up, that they can go and take their country back.
- [22:32]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
If the US Were to pursue the course of action you're describing, do you believe it would, it would be prudent for the president to go to Congress first? Do you see that constitutional necessity that he has consistently denied is necessary?
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Nikki Haley
I always think you need to go to Congress. One, you need the buy in of Congress. You need the buy in of the American people. You need to explain what you're doing, why you're doing it, and what you know. And yes, it's, it's just good practice to go to Congress with more. This administration has done a lot by executive order. The danger in that is the next administration. If it's not a Republican, all of that gets reversed and then we're swinging the pendulum. That's not good for the American people. Congress needs to step up. There are a lot of things Congress could be doing, but right now we're hearing a lot of talking and not a lot of action.
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Joe Matthew
The political pendulum also swings as we watch the primary season unfold. And there was a state you know a lot about that was, of course, voting yesterday in South Carolina. The president's endorsements have been on the line quite a bit here more recently, and they paid off last evening, particularly in the race for governor in the primary for governor. Pamela Yvette, I'm curious your thoughts on this and what it looks to be the end of a couple of political careers, including Nancy Mace and someone who you endorsed and endorsed you back in. Ralph Norman, what, what transpired last night and is it good for your party?
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Nikki Haley
Well, I think, first of all, primaries are always good for our party. I think that it's very important that you have debate, that you have, you know, them touching as many hands as they can and really getting their message out. So I think having a full primary was a great thing. You know, the press has been covering that Nancy Mace was a factor, and because of the Trump endorsement, she lost. She was never a factor in this race. She was always in fifth place. She was never going anywhere. She knew that and South Carolina knew that. So, you know, she laid her bed, she's now laying in it. That's what she's doing. Ralph Norman, who I respect and love, we go way back. He does what he says he's going to do. He's got real clarity. You know, certainly I wish he would have made it into the, into the runoff, but, you know, he was always pushing. And then you had Evatt and Wilson in there. And so look, it's the power of the Trump endorsement. Evatt wouldn't have made it in the runoff without the Trump endorsement. So his endorsement is strong. It does move the ball. And, you know, we just have to make sure that who we elect in a primary is who we want to vote for in a general.
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Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, and to that point, I wonder if you think the President is making the correct endorsement choices. Even if we look beyond South Carolina to, say, somewhere like Texas. Texas, where Ken Paxton is now the one who is going to have to try to hold a Senate seat in Republican hands.
- [25:17]
Nikki Haley
It's going to cost a lot more money for Republicans to hold that seat. I do think we'll hold the Texas seat, but it's just not Republicans. Look at Graham Platner in Maine. You know, it's. It's amazing to me. You know, I always say it's important to understand that in a primary, you make your choice. In a general election, you're given the choice. You. You have to choose between the two. But in America, typically, only 15% of Americans vote in a primary. So what you're getting is the extreme of both sides. So by the time most Americans go to vote, they're having to choose between two extremes. It's because we don't talk about primaries in high schools. Our kids don't know that they know to vote in November. They know to do that, and they do. But until we start talking about the importance of primaries and until Americans see that that's actually the race that matters, you're going to have the Paxton race, you're going to have the Platners, you're going to have those that make us kind of uncomfortable. But, you know, all in the name of getting a majority. Let's get the right good people in there so that we can start getting things done. But more than that, let's look at what's not getting done. You know, you look at the debt that America has right now. What has Congress done about that? So you want to talk about a war, but why aren't they talking about balancing a budget? You know, we're $39 trillion in debt. We're going to be 40 trillion in the fall. That's unacceptable. That's like the US taking in 5 trillion a year and spending 7 trillion a year. You know, now we're 100% over GDP. The last two recessions, we had a buffer. If we have another recession, there will be no stimulus. There will be no tax breaks. You aren't going to have a cushion to do anything with. That is something Congress can address now, and they've yet to do it. Social Security is going to run out in six years. Every U.S. senate candidate needs to be asked, what are you going to do about it? Because 75 million Americans will be affected by that. Don't wait until that falls on us. And do a quick band aid of a deal. It's something I talked about in the campaign was reforming entitlement. You have to do that in a few years. 15% of our federal outlays are going to be interest. That's not okay.
- [27:36]
Joe Matthew
Well, I'm just listening to you speak, Ambassador, and I'm wondering if you plan to travel to campaign for candidates that you decide to support, whether it's in the South Carolina runoff or nationally, and what your plans are beyond this midterm cycle. We all remember when you said your time would come. Is it coming in this next round?
- [27:56]
Nikki Haley
First of all, I'm going to help any candidates that I can. You know, we have been helping Susan Collins raise money. I plan on going to Maine and campaigning for her, doing that when we see a good candidate. I mean, that race matters to us so much. And she's been such a remarkable senator. You know, it's, it shouldn't go overseeing that. She's never missed a vote. Never missed a vote. And regardless of where her views are, she's respected. She's a hard worker. She's come out of tough races. But we need to make sure she wins again. We can't take this for granted. So, yes, I will be out there in elections helping Republicans. That's something I'm always going to do in terms of my future. You know, I'm going to keep talking about the things that matter. I'm going to talk about foreign policy. I'm going to talk about the debt. I'm going to talk about the need for us to self correct. I think that's what I can do. You know, I talk to a lot of business leaders now about how you, you manage business in, you know, this world that we're in. And that's kind of where I am right now. I, you know, I'm not going to look forward. I'm not running in 2028. That's not something that I'm interested in. But my voice is going to always be there. I think it's too important for us to stay silent in times like this.
- [29:05]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, and as you talk about talking about foreign policy, something that you were Vocal about in 2024, President Trump, as Joe alluded to earlier, was very much not running that kind of campaign. And yet he does seem to be running that kind of presidency. Much more foreign policy oriented. And I wonder if you expect that that trajectory is going to continue where that once again is back at the forefront of conversation.
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Nikki Haley
Well, I think, you know, you can say no new wars, but the reality of Ukraine and Russia is there. Russia invaded a free country. That's something that we can't step away from. The reality of the threat from Iran on our national security, you can't walk away from that. So, yes, in a campaign you can say no new wars, but reality hits you in the face when you get to that leadership position and you have to make those decisions. And I think he's having to make those decisions now.
- [29:57]
Joe Matthew
It's a pretty dangerous time that, that we're living in and talking through with you, Ambassador. And there's a big question about who should be running the nation's intelligence apparatus. This is a big problem on Capitol Hill. FISA expires, it looks like, on Friday because lawmakers need more than Bill Pulte. They want a permanent name that the president might announce. He says he's working on one. But Pulte will be on the job later this month. Are you comfortable with that?
- [30:23]
Nikki Haley
Well, I think Trump has made it clear that he's going to put a permanent person in there. That person needs to have experience. We need, I mean, our intelligence is everything I can tell you from, from when I was at the United nations, the profiles of our adversaries, knowing what they're saying, knowing what they're doing, knowing the threats that face us are hugely important. It would be irresponsible for Congress not to renew fisa. I can't stress enough how that keeps Americans safe. And regardless of what you think about Pulte, FISA needs to continue and Trump needs to put someone qualified in there that can make Congress feel like they can, can move forward. So both of those things need to happen just quickly.
- [31:03]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Is it also irresponsible to have someone, even in an acting capacity, who's used non public mortgage data to go after perceived enemies of the president?
- [31:11]
Nikki Haley
I think that what we want is transparency. Let us know who's serving us, what are they doing for us. Be transparent about it. And what's your end goal? I think that there are, you know, cabinet members who are doing a great job. I think there are other cabinet members who are, we may not know as much of what they're doing. Open it all up. Let the American people see. At the end of the day, Americans want to know that government's working for them. They still don't trust government. They don't trust our agencies. They don't trust Congress. They don't trust elected officials. Americans deserve better. You know, they're paying higher in groceries, higher in energy, higher in insurance. You know, all of these things. Kids can't afford their rent. If all of that's going to happen, it makes an American public more resentful and it makes them more angry at why people aren't working for them. And my advice is, look, we're going to be okay, but do your part. Step up. Don't vote for somebody because they look good in a picture or hold a baby. Well, you know, are they fighting for you? And if they're fighting for you, fight for them. But if they're not, it's time to turn the leaf and get someone else.
- [32:16]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
All right. We'll leave it on that note. Ambassador, thank you so much for joining us. She's now chair at Hudson you and thank Institute. Also, former ambassador to the United nations and former governor of South Carolina, Nikki Haley here with us on Bloomberg TV and radio. Thank you so much.
- [32:28]
Joe Matthew
Stay with us. On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [32:35]
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- [33:48]
Podcast Host/Producer
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [34:04]
Joe Matthew
Thanks for joining us on the Wednesday edition After our fascinating and wide ranging conversation, we covered a lot of ground with Nikki Haley Kelly. From Iran to the primary season, we want to stick with foreign policy for a moment and assemble our political panel for everything that we just heard. This, of course is the former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Rick Davis is here, Bloomberg politics contributor, Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. And we're joined by the first time by Democratic strategist Matt Robeson, former campaign manager from the great state of Massachusetts. Gentlemen, thanks for being here. And Rick, I'm deeply curious your thoughts on the justification for this war that we heard from Nikki Haley. She is firmly behind the president and even then some sounded a little bit like Senator Lindsey Graham. The finish the job camp. As the president today says we will start attacking Iran again very hard today. Do you agree with Nikki Haley and what would finishing the job actually look like?
- [35:03]
Rick Davis
Yeah, I was actually very impressed that she took as strong a stand as she did. I mean she's always been a defense hawk. Part of what I love about Governor Haley, it's great to see her on Bloomberg. It's nice to have her back in the dialogue. Look, I mean her two pillars, sanctions on Russia and China, absolutely the right thing to do. The president's been cowed by China on Rare Earth, so he's been hesitant to want to really use that card. But the Senate has given him lots of room with Russia and China to do what they need to do, not just in this war, but in the Russia conflict in Ukraine. And then, and then the second pillar, Carg island, is really representative of a lot of the things she talked about. She didn't get much into the details, but sounded like ground troops to take out the uranium was one of her options. And that means a significant increase in the Connecticut end of this, this war. Look at the fundamental core of it. She said the right thing, which is you can never get a deal that you can trust with this regime. Ultimately you'll need regime change, which means the people of Iran need to be given the tools to take control of their own destinies. And I thought she had a very clear minded view of how to actually solve the problem rather than than just kick the can.
- [36:26]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, and with that notion of perhaps diplomacy not ultimately having a chance at prevailing, Matt, I wonder if, even if you disagreed with the initiation of this conflict to begin with, if it is now the best course of action for American interests, both in terms of our national security, but also our economic interests. For the US Military to just try to finish this as best they can.
- [36:49]
Matt Robeson
Well, Kylie, I mean, I defer to the ambassador's vast expertise on these matters. I will say that it's hard to see how sanctioning funding and logistical sources from China and Russia would really change behavior, which is an issue that came up in the last segment. And it's really hard for me to see how hitting Carg island, trying to degrade the Iranian regime's income would help with the looming price bomb that is facing Americans. One thing I can predict is that the notion of boots on the ground is going to lead to huge congressional pushback. The fact that majorities in both chambers of Congress have now voted to severely curtail US Military action in Iran tells you everything you need to know about how realistic it is that Congress would get behind putting boots on the ground. I'm not sure I understand how President Trump would get congressional authorization for that, but as the ambassador said, he would need to do so. I think the real issue from a purely political standpoint is prices are going through the roof. That's the number one issue for voters heading into the fall. We have a looming depletion of key inventories of feed ins to commodities that Americans depend on that we're paying through the nose for. That's the issue that should be really keeping the White House up at night. I'm not sure how escalating the conflict is going to address any of that.
- [38:12]
Joe Matthew
Rick, what do you think about the congressional side of this? The ambassador was very direct. He said the the administration has to get the permission of Congress to finish the job. And some would say that it's just too late, Rick, that the White House has done so much on its own without Congress and knowing that these war powers resolutions have passed that they would never get the vote. Folks, what do you think?
- [38:37]
Rick Davis
Yeah, look, I don't think in a situation like this it's ever too late. Yes, the president did not sell this war to the American public or to our allies and friends around the world. And that was a critical mistake. This go alone strategy is now bearing out some of the problems that it has inherent with it. But I lived through the surge in Iraq where everyone thought the war was lost. And we were going to just, you know, sort of slowly turn tail and run. And we convinced the American public and Congress to support a surge in Iraq. And this is not significantly different from that dynamic. It was not a popular thing. John McCain ran his primary in New Hampshire on The surge. I mean, like, talk about a very unpopular concept in New Hampshire. But he won and he got the support of the people and Congress and that turned the tide of the war there. So the question is, do you want to take some sacrifices? Do you want to get out there and make this a political issue? It's killing the president now. He ought to try to make it better.
- [39:38]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, and of course, this is what the ambassador was getting at. The idea that you can campaign on no new wars all you want, a campaign sometimes is going to be very different than the reality of actually governing. On the subject of campaigns to govern, though, Matt, we also obviously talked to her about the South Carolina gubernatorial primary in which Nancy Mace came in a resounding fifth place. Ralph Norman also obviously did not advance. Pam Yvette, who received the endorsement of President Trump, did so. And I wonder if you read into that at all in terms of the strength of the Trump endorsement being on show once again, or if as a campaign strategist, you see this as a result of perhaps just some weak campaigns.
- [40:18]
Matt Robeson
Well, absolutely. I mean, I think we've had ample evidence at this point that Trump's hammerlock on the Republican Party is as strong as it ever was. We've seen it in Indiana, We've seen it in state after state. I think, you know, the issue for Republicans is that that kind of sends them out further and further on the branch away from where the mainstream of American voters are. And again, we alluded in the last segment to what the polling is telling us and what special election evidence is telling us about where American voters are, the amount of enthusiasm that Democrats and Democratic leaning independents are bringing into the midterm elections. In the 117 special elections that we've had since the last cycle, there's been a move toward Democrats and turnout of 5.6 percentage points. So it's all well and good for Trump to exert this kind of influence in South Carolina, in other solid red Republican territory. But it's not in the Republican Party's long term strategic interest. And Democrats, my side, aren't too upset about it in terms of our midterm prospects.
- [41:23]
Joe Matthew
Really interesting. Got a minute left, Rick, what's your thought on that?
- [41:28]
Rick Davis
Yeah, I don't know how much of the turnout is a factor of enthusiasm or whether or not it's just demographics. Matt knows well that Democratic voters are more likely to turn out. They're more college educated. They have a voting history of turning out in midterms and special elections wherein these Republicans don't. And so that that is an adjustment that you have to make on your own and figure out how it affects your campaign. But it all portends for a raucous November election.
- [42:00]
Joe Matthew
We are in for one heck of a general election season and with the help of Rick Davis and Matt Robeson, we're going to have it covered for you. Gentlemen.
- [42:07]
Rick Davis
Thank you.
- [42:08]
Joe Matthew
Great panel, great conversation. I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kailey Leinz in Washington. We have much more ahead here On Balance of Power. Stay with us On Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [42:21]
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- [43:05]
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- [43:20]
Podcast Host/Producer
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- [43:39]
Joe Matthew
The president of the United States States held a big signing ceremony a little bit earlier. You knew reconciliation passed. The $70 billion for ICE and Border Patrol now signed into law. And the next stop on the road brings US Kelly to FISA 702 and the President is now starting to get involved. Knowing that we've talked to a number of lawmakers, Democrats and Republicans who have quote, unquote heartburn over the idea of Bill Pulte as dni. And that's been slowing things down on the renewal front vote set for Friday. Now the president is asking not only for a bit of patience in naming a permanent dni, but also a short term solution here, essentially kicking the can to buy time to come up with the right candidate.
- [44:23]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Yeah, another short term extension after we've already seen short term extensions previously. Knowing the original bipartisan deal was to extend this key warrantless surveillance program for three years. That all fell apart part with the tapping of Bill Pulte. But perhaps the suggestion here that he is looking for an alternate candidate to serve on a permanent basis is supposed to be something of an olive branch to concerned Democrats. So let's get into all of this now as we turn to Republican Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis of New York, who is here with us in our Washington D.C. studio. Congresswoman, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to see you. I don't know if you think that the short term extension is possible by even Friday at this point. Is the President doing enough to make it clear that Bill Pulte will eventually have some separation from the nation's intelligence services?
- [45:08]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Look, I think that we have to extend fisa. To me, as a New York Republican In a post 911 world, I think there's a few things that are more critical at this moment and to make sure that that FISA authority remains with the intelligence community. It has stopped terror attacks. It has provided necessary information to keep our country safe. And it is critical that it does get extended, particularly when you think about all that is happening this year. It's not just the 25th anniversary of September 11th. It is. You have the World cup starting this week and you have the knicks. You have America 250 events coming. There is just so much activity, not to mention the conflict with Iran. So there's a lot happening right now where we need to make sure that our intelligence community has that as a tool because it's just so critically important.
- [45:58]
Joe Matthew
We've been discussing the fact that it's not top of mind or in front of Americans the way a TSA shutdown might be, where, you know, you've got lines at airports. There's a point of pressure here. Not everyone knows what Pfizer 702.
- [46:11]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
That's right.
- [46:11]
Joe Matthew
Is what would you tell someone in Staten island who asked you what's, who cares what happens if it expires? What would happen? What would we lose?
- [46:20]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Yeah, and part of the reason why the average person doesn't know what FISA is is because it is so heavily classified and you can't even publicly give examples of the types of things that have been stopped because of it. Although, you know, there were reports in 2024 there was a potential attack at the Taylor Swift concert, for example, that was thwarted because of fisa. But basically it is a tool that is used as surveillance tool that the intelligence community uses to track foreign, foreign individuals. Not on U.S. soil. And that is how they conduct a lot of this investigation. Now, the controversy with some of the members of Congress, right, has been that if that foreign individual outside the United States communicates with somebody who is in the United States and is an American citizen, those are the privacy concerns that some of the members have. But I think that at minimum we should be able to do a short term extension of the existing law. There's still negotiations that are happening in terms of whether there should be a warrant or not a warrant if an American citizen inadvertently got swooped up in an investigation of a foreign individual. So I think that. But we can't let it go dark. I think that's the bottom line for people like me who are very concerned about what could happen if FISA were to go offline and that tool was taken away. And remember, there were a number of reforms, about 50 reforms, reforms that were added about two years ago when FISA was reauthorized. And so there were already very significant reforms. And remember, President Trump had been one of the biggest critics of FISA because he felt that he's against it. Exactly. And he's the one saying we need to, we cannot let this thing expire and that there were reforms. And so he's advocating for and hopefully can convince some of those members who have been kind of reluctant right now to support it.
- [48:09]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, I wonder what you make of the president's timing decisions here. Tapping Bill Pulte is acting DNI just before FISA expires, having the DOJ announced this anti weaponization fund just before you're trying to get through a massive budget reconciliation package. Is he just making it more difficult for those of you who stood up on Capitol Hill?
- [48:27]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
I think maybe it wasn't the most politically savvy things to be saying when you're trying to get certain things done. Look, I, you got to love President Trump for his honesty, Right. He's very blunt. He's out there, he's nothe's transparent. He says what he feels, he does what he thinks is the right thing. I think, look, I think that it probably was not the best timing if he truly wants Pulte to have that position. With that said, I think that a lot of members are looking to see if we could get somebody a little more qualified, specifically in the national security space, we think, and I think that that's probably where this is going to end up. It'll probably be somebody else. And I think there is concern about that and he needs to address it over the next 24 hours or so for us to get this, I think across the finish line.
- [49:11]
Joe Matthew
Before we move on though, should people brace for at least a temporary expiration or could this still, I'm hope by Friday.
- [49:19]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Look, I'm hopeful that we will get the job done. You know, I've spoken with folks over at the White House, folks at the speaker with the speaker. And I mean, everyone understands how critical this is and we've been told to not rush out of here. You know, usually the last vote of the week, everyone's already planning, it's a mass exodus. We need to stick around. I'm prepared to stick around. And we need the members to stay here, you know, and I think that the attendance does become a problem though, and I think that's irresponsible. I think the members need to stay here until FISA is extended and a short term extension I think probably is the only solution at this time considering how late it is. But, and the Democrats have already said they're not going to help at all. So if they're not going to help at all, we need every Republican to stay here and just do that temporary extension to make sure that it stays online.
- [50:08]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, as we consider what else the president is grappling with here, he announced in the Oval Office earlier that the US Is going to be attacking Iran. Very hard to use his words after we saw the response yesterday to the downing of the Apache Hell helicopter. In your mind, is it in the best interest of the United States to just go forward with the military option in the absence of real progress on diplomacy?
- [50:29]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Look, it's hard for me to say without having all the information in front of me of what, you know, the military with the intelligence is saying. I do believe that Iran has been dragging its feet and if they're not going to come to a deal, then we're going to have to deal with them in a different way. And you know, the president has made these threats and if he's making these threats that they're going to take military action if there's no progress in negotiations, I think he needs to follow through with it. I think you can't bluff in this situation and it's too serious. This needs to be resolved. And as Secretary Rubio says, it's going to be resolved one way or the other. And so I think that, you know, it's good to be pushing Iran, but at some point he's going to have to make a decision if they're going to, you know, just use military force to get the strait back and to try to put an end overall to their capabilities. Nuclear, any nuclear capabilities. I think it's in Iran's best interest to make a deal. But they also know with an election coming up that, you know, time is on their side in a sense. Right. Even though the President says that's not the true. And I think the president is working on his own timeline. You know, he may not be as concerned about the midterms as some of the other, you know, some of us are. But at the end of the day, we need to do what's in the best interest to ensure that Iran does not have that nuclear weapon, that the strait opens up, the oil begins flowing again, and that, you know, that that enriched uranium gets turned over to somebody may not be the United States, but maybe an intermediary, but it's got to get out of the hands of the Iranian regime.
- [52:06]
Joe Matthew
But we saw evidence today that for a third month, this war or conflict, whatever you want to call it, is pushing prices higher. And look no further than the gas station. I noticed today, knowing you were going to join us. New York is actually above the national average nationally. 415. I think you're at 442 in New York. President was asked today about prices, and you might have heard his response by now. It's a little bit difficult to tell exactly what he meant with his answer, but let's listen. He had reporters in the Oval Office a short time ago. The numbers were.
- [52:35]
President Trump
You know what I really love? I love the inflation. You know why? Because as soon as this war is over, you know, I can say it now something you did not. You know, we've been taking out millions of barrels of oil. Nobody knows it. You know who doesn't know about it? Iran, until right now.
- [52:54]
Joe Matthew
Interesting. I love the inflation is going to be in campaign ads, whether it's out of context or not, for months ahead. It's unclear how he meant that. I think he's suggesting that because it's going to fall, he's getting a kick out of these numbers now. I'm not sure. What does it mean for your voters, though, and for your reelection campaign?
- [53:12]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Well, I don't love inflation. My constituents don't love inflation. I don't love high gas prices. My constituents don't like high gas prices. I do agree with one thing that the president did say, is that it's going to come down and it's going to come down quickly as soon as this is over. Remember, President Trump brought gas prices below $3, and it was the first time we saw that in four years under Joe Biden had gone all the way up to $5. It always stayed roughly between, like 4 and $5 the entire four years. And so I do believe that he has the ability to drastically bring down those prices. But we need to get out of this. And I think that that's the key here. How is that going to happen? Because the negotiation is taking longer than we anticipated. And I think that, you know, we just need to see how this. Because even if it were to open today, the Strait, it could take months for those prices to still reflect and, you know, still some of the open tariff issues that we have. You know, there's still a lot of questions there. And so that's coming into play as well. I think long term, what he's doing today will have a positive impact long term, but for the short term, it's been a little bit of a bumpy ride.
- [54:20]
Podcast Host Kylie Leinz
Well, the president just posted on True Social Congresswoman that he last month secretly directed the military to support oil tankers and other commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. He says, quote, today I am pleased to announce this effort has resulted in more than 100 million barrels of oil making its way through the strait and into the open market. More than 200 commercial ships have safely traveled through the strait. So perhaps, perhaps we were secretly doing Project Freedom all along. But I would imagine this rings as good news to you.
- [54:48]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
Well, that is welcome news. And I think, again, what you're seeing is why I think prices when the, when this gets resolved, it will come down because, look, we've ramped up domestic energy production. Now we have a much better situation relationship with Venezuela. Right. And we're benefiting from that as well in terms of oil. And then now you're going to see the straight opening up and these barrels get through. That's about 20% of the global market. And obviously, you know, the, the global market is what really affects us price, not just that America's producing more. So, you know, the prices come down for us. It's a global issue. And so I think that, you know, these three things combined will, will be better in the long run. Now, New York is a different story. Now, why you say New York is above the national average is honestly, it's because of a lot of terrible policies at the state level. I mean, you know, New York has crushed the energy sector and electric bills have skyrocketed. Gas prices for your heating, your home have skyrocketed.
- [55:43]
Joe Matthew
State taxes are the reason why a gallon costs more than the national tax,
- [55:47]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
it's the state taxes. But it's Also, you know, 26% of the energy supply or electricity supply was that Indian Point power plant. Right. And they have closed that down in the state of New York. And now that's putting a lot of pressure on the industry. So I think that New York, sadly, like California, above average on most things when it comes to cost. And that's because a lot of the local state issues that come into play that affect that. Now I've also temporarily introduced a bill to temporarily suspend the federal gas tax. I think that's good for commuters and it's also good, it's for diesel as well. That'll help out farmers, it'll help out truckers and shipping industry. I think that's something we can do temporarily just to ease the pain at the pump for until this gets resolved.
- [56:31]
Joe Matthew
Well, it's great to spend a little time with you, Congresswoman Nicole. Molly Attack is Republican from New York. You in the skybox or courtside tonight?
- [56:38]
Congresswoman Nicole Molly Takis
I'm only watching from the comfort of my little tv. You know we got the Congressional baseball game. Yes, true games tonight for New York.
- [56:46]
Joe Matthew
Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at Noontime eastern@bloomberg.com
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