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- [00:00]
IBM Representative
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- [00:33]
Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer
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- [00:55]
Kailey Leinz
So we continue to follow the updates from the Middle East. As we mentioned at the top of hour, we saw deaths of at least three more American service members in Jordan and Iraq yesterday. In Jordan, of course, the two died due to an Iranian attack on US Military facilities there. In Iraq, it was a service member who was trying to disarm a downed Iranian drone. So we have more service members who have died at least 17 now as a result of this conflict. And Trump, the president, as we mentioned, is suggesting Iran will pay for that many times over, even as he signals that he still wants to pursue the ambition here, which is a non nuclear Iran. This is how the president framed things yesterday.
- [01:38]
President Donald Trump
We hit him very hard again tonight. This is a far bigger job that we're doing. We were doing a little job stopping them from having a certain capability. Now we're just ending it. So it's really not the same thing. What we're doing now is we're ending any chance where they can have a nuclear missile.
- [01:57]
Joe Matthew
But of course, they continue to fire ballistic missiles, conventional weaponry. And we also know that the Houthi rebels, which of course take direction from Iran, are now threatening a blockade of Saudi Arabia. That's why we've seen crude oil tip higher. We were actually lower a short time ago. And futures are pointing to higher prices with gas, not just gasoline, but diesel as well, pointing higher. We want to spend some time with Tyler Kendall getting the latest on all of the headlines that have been moving from Iran. And our political panel is standing by as well with their take on things. Tyler, thanks for coming over to spend some time with us here. This is a tough spot. The president does not seem to be climbing down from some of the harsh rhetoric, saying that he's now directing Pete Hegseth and what he calls his Department of War to make up for the deaths of these at least three American service members. So the prospect of a 10 day cease fire seems like it might not be here yet.
- [02:55]
Tyler Kendall
Right at the moment it appears that we are pointed toward escalation, which is really what this weekend marked serious escalation. As you're both outlining the total US death toll now reaching 17 service members since the conflict started back in February. And we're seeing it escalate on both sides. As you mentioned, Joe, we now have this reporting that the Iranian backed militia group the Houthis are looking towards a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia. We can't only look at that through the US Iran war lens. We do know that this is also part of a ceasefire between Saudi Arab and the Houthis from 2022 breaking down. But obviously Iran has been backing the Houthis. They told them last week to be prepared if the US Hits energy infrastructure, that they should be ready to totally close down transit when it comes to that other oil route through the Red Sea. So it feels like both sides are now ratcheting up the pressure even as we got indications and signals from both sides that maybe they would be open toward diplomacy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio saying that the US Got strong indications from Iran. But then the statement from Iranian Foreign Ministry earlier today saying on one hand there was diplomatic activity in the diplomatic apparatus was the word they used, but also that they have sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. And that's not going to go anywhere,
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Kailey Leinz
which of course is a major problem for the United States. But it's also a problem politically for the President that gasoline prices are on the march higher once again, north of $4 a gallon on average across the country. Are there any levers that the president can pull short of saying something positive on true social to try and talk the markets down here? Do we have more wiggle room in
- [04:38]
Tyler Kendall
the spider Tyler we were talking about this last hour on balance of power. There are a few different levers that we know the administration has already been thinking about, including our Bloomberg News reporting from last week, that we could see an extension of that Jones act shipping waiver, which essentially tries to make it cheaper and easier to move crude oil around this country. President Trump has previously threatened investigations into big oil companies. Gas. Lowering gas prices quickly gets really tricky because we know that it takes so much time to move the refined product through the supply chain. And we have to keep in mind that a lot of gas stations are independent and they have to factor in their own margins when they buy during a supply shock. And it may be harder to bring those prices down that we pay at the pump more quickly. But $4 a gallon is really that political threshold that we talk about a lot. So we'll see what the administration says from here.
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Joe Matthew
Pretty interesting to consider. We're just hearing, by the way, from White House press secretary, the president will attend the dignified transfer tomorrow evening at Dover Air Force Base. And we are still waiting for confirmation on what could be a fourth American death. As the president says, this is a very sad situation, but also one that will be avenged. Tyler, with all of this in mind, what does the president have going on today? Is he doing anything public facing? I see a lot of closed events on his schedule. After the primetime address to the nation last week, you'd think that we might hear from him, right?
- [06:11]
Tyler Kendall
Well, we'll have to see if any of these events open up, but I don't believe anything is public right now on on the schedule, at least at this point. He has been posting on Truth Social, as you mentioned, this renewed threat that we got within the last hour. Also commenting on other priorities, including when it comes to the potential reconciliation package that may or may not be getting through the House this week, but of course includes in some regard funding for the Pentagon related to the conflict in Iran. We have seen now nine consecutive days of strikes and CENTCOM has been giving us updates. I believe the update today was seven ships so far have been turned around and redirected amid the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. Feels like our eyes have been more trained toward the Pentagon's updates at this point than President Trump's.
- [06:58]
Kailey Leinz
Well, and of course, we'll hear from the Pentagon tomorrow as the secretary of Defense, Pete Hegseth and Joint Chiefs staff chair Dan Kaine will be testifying before the Senate Appropriations Committee as they ask for more money from Congress. Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall, our Washington correspondent, thank you so much. And just to reiterate the news that Joe mentioned a moment ago, the White House press secretary, Caroline Levitt, did confirm that the president will be attending the dignified transfer of these three dead American service members tomorrow at Dover Air Force Base. And it's on that note. We turn now to our political panel, Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino, Bloomberg Politics contributors are with us. Rick, of course, Republican strategist and Stone Court Capital partner Jeannie, a Democratic analyst and democracy visiting fellow at Harvard, the school's Ash Center. Rick, unfortunately, this is not the first dignified transfer that the president has had to attend since Operation Epic Fury began. And I wonder if you see his options here as either one in which he has to back down or one where he has to inherently escalate and therefore risk more American service members lives.
- [07:57]
Rick Davis
Yeah, look, there's always an option on the table just to walk away. The President has even mentioned that through the course of this, you know, five and a half month conflict, but nobody really takes that seriously. The reality here is the, the rest of these options are very limited for him and that's to do what he's doing, which continue to escalate in order to de escalate at some point in time. And of course that goes up and down every day or to really maximize pressure, which means probably putting boots on the ground, which is another horrible option for the President, but one that has to be considered and has been. And the reality though is expect more dignified transfers when you start putting troops in harm's way on the ground in Iran. So it's a, it's a, it's a difficult situation and I think the Iranians are taking full advantage of that. They know that by putting pressure on Donald Trump's base, by having higher gas prices, by putting people in harm's way, by killing US Service members, by harassing our allies in the region, that all of that is a weight that they think will crush Trump's resolve and get a deal that is advantage to them. And I think that's the biggest fear everyone in the region has, is we're just not playing in Donald Trump's verse with too many good cards in this deck right now.
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Joe Matthew
Well, the mediators are raising their hands, Jeannie. According to Iran, with a 10 day ceasefire apparently on the table here, a proposal realizing that the MOU didn't last very long here. But Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State, was also speaking in terms of the potential for diplomacy following a very violent weekend. Here's what he said.
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Marco Rubio
The only reason why the US is conducting strikes is against assets of Iran that are being used to attack global commercial shipping. The Straits of Hormuz are international waterways and they continue to launch against ships in that international waterway. Other countries should join us in this effort.
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Joe Matthew
So Qatar and Pakistan, who are the main intermediaries here, see a return to US Iran positions pre July 9 as a first step. According to the official Iranian Students News Agency, GENIE fighting over control of the Strait began that day. Is there any way to turn the clock back at this point?
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Jeannie Shan Zaino
You can't turn it back. Hopefully the 10 day cease fire is something that can be implemented, although the concern there is, of course, you give the Iranians time to build some of their weaponry. And that's what we've seen when we've had pauses in the past. And this is something that the president, when he was speaking last night, he continues to say that Iran is badly damaged, they've lost everything militarily. He says it over and over again. And yet if that's the case, how does Iran still have the capacity to fight the greatest military in the world? How can they still be lashing out at our Gulf allies? How can they still be killing service members, two of whom were identified as a young 25 year old man from Hawaii and a 19 year old service member from Texas and the other one, I didn't see the identification on that. And potentially, of course, this is the big question, though everybody is asking when public opinion polls the Washington Post last week, 69% of Americans say this war is being badly managed by the president, badly handled. Why does he continue to say that their abilities have been decimated if in fact they keep hitting us to the point where this thing is escalated and we're losing service members? The messaging on this has been problematic from the start and this is where he is losing the American public in addition to the increasing price of gas and oil and everything else.
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Kailey Leinz
I just want to mention, Rick and Jeanne, some breaking news that's just crossing the Bloomberg terminal. We of course have a new prime minister in the UK And Andy Burnham, and he's starting to assemble his cabinet after the resignation of the old Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves. We now have named a new UK Chancellor. John Healey has been picked by Prime Minister Burton to the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. This of course follows Joe Burnham's remarks when he took the position, talking about how he's going to be looking for more fiscal flexibility where it is available, spook to the bond market a little bit with gilt yields going higher. And it's going to be a question of to what extent John Healey is looking to execute that kind of flexibility, what kind of decisions he would like to make as he is going to be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer
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Joe Matthew
in the UK Yeah, pretty interesting development here. Having spent time in a number of different positions after Keir Starmer's election, was appointed Shadow Defense Secretary. He's kept very strong relations with leaders here in the US including folks from both the Trump and Biden administrations, and is said to be pretty close with Pete Hegseth. So this is an interesting development and one that will be followed up by more as he tries to build the cabinet here.
- [13:11]
Tyler Kendall
Yep.
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Kailey Leinz
And we'll have more on this throughout the day for you here on Bloomberg TV and radio. But Joe, you mentioned Pete Hegseth, and that's what I wanted to ask you about, Rick, is the defense secretary will be testifying in the Senate tomorrow before the Appropriations Committee as he tries to make the case for the supplemental fund running. The Pentagon has requested, of course, a one and a half trillion dollar defense budget. How much more difficult is his job tomorrow knowing we have more service members who have just died in the Middle East?
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Rick Davis
Yeah, it'll certainly make it a more somber occasion in the, in the Senate. And, and it'll be a difficult task to convince these senators that the money is being well spent in the sense that we're not winning. And you know, there's nothing like a politician sitting there listening to a defense secretary and the first thing they want to know is are we winning? It's going to be hard to answer that question with any credibility at this stage. And in the process, we're exhausting quite a bit of equipment and man time that is not going to be easily replaceable. So I expect it's going to be a difficult time with Secretary Hegseth and Joint Chief Chairman Kaine. And I think it'll add to the confusion that already exists between a massive budget request, as you point out, Kelly, for $1.5 trillion for the, for the Defense Department and a generous amount of money in the reconciliation 3.0 to support the war. It's a lot of money flying around and nobody's really got their hands on it.
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Joe Matthew
It's a lot of money flying around. And I wonder, Jeannie, what will be Democrats posture tomorrow? I think it's fairly predictable. But you know that Pete Hegseth is showing up with his own oppo research and actually enjoys the fight with lawmakers who are criticizing him. Does that change the way Democrats manage their time?
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Jeannie Shan Zaino
I don't think so. And it is just reprehensible because we are talking about service men and women. We are talking about a military engagement and a war of choice that was badly managed, badly thought out, badly conceived from the start. And he's going to show up and I'm sure you're right with a log of opera research he could try to use against any member of this of Congress. That is reprehensible. We are not in a good position vis a vis Iran. What he should be talking about is what we can do to turn this thing around. What is the strategy this administration is going to utilize to do that? And throwing $1.5 trillion at it is not the answer. And so I think we're going to hear Democrats press him on what this is needed for and what is the strategy. Not to mention the fact that they have not come to Congress to vote on the war. And that is something that they have experienced as a real, I think lost a moment to have a conversation with the people in the United States about what we're even doing there.
- [16:07]
Joe Matthew
Great conversation with our panel today. Bloomberg Politics contributors Jeannie Shan Zaino and Rick Davis, thank you both so much for the insights and we'll let you know as more news develops with the war. Remember, stay with us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [16:25]
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- [17:21]
Kailey Leinz
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Congressman Mike Flood
SEC registered advisor.
- [17:30]
Joe Matthew
Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures.
- [17:34]
Bloomberg Audio Studios Announcer
You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg 11:30.
- [17:53]
Kailey Leinz
I'm Kailey Leinz alongside Joe Matthew here in Washington. This is Balance of Power, where of course we follow the balance of power here in the US but around the world as well. And the balance of power is changing in the uk or at least those in power are changing. It's still the same Labour Party at the top of the UK government, but now a new Prime Minister and Andy Burnham a new Chancellor of the Exchequer in John Healey, which was announced hour and now a new foreign secretary has just been named Ed Miliband. Joe will be serving in that role in this new cabinet and of course, he will be charged with liaising with the likes of Marco Rubio, one would imagine. But European governments as well as we just had headlines crossing that. The new prime minister, Andy Burnham, also has spoken with the EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen this afternoon and has invited the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky to the UK at the earliest opportunity,
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Joe Matthew
spoke with President Trump today as well and invited him to Manchester. We'll see if that happens and if so, which jet the president's going to be taking as the gifted 747 for Qatar goes in for enhancements as he's
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Kailey Leinz
got to be maxed out.
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Joe Matthew
Maxed out. And we'll see if they can get that done in the better part of a month. With more air defenses to be added to the new jet. We've got our eyes on Capitol Hill here at home, of course. Kaylee, with only four legislative days until the August recess and a boatload of work to do beginning with reconciliation 3.0. And that's where we start our conversation with Megan Scully before we hear from Congressman Mike Flood. He's going to be in our studio in just a moment. Megan leads our Capital Influence team here at Bloomberg in Washington. I don't know, Megan. I mean, I could read the list. Ndaa, a CR the speaker has ready to roll here to avoid a government shutdown. The supplemental by way of reconciliation, House Rules Committee is going to get underway here in about 15 minutes. Will that lead to anything actually getting passed before everyone goes away?
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Megan Scully
It's going to be a busy week, certainly in the House. And you know, they are motivated to get a lot of this done before leaving for five or six weeks for the August recess, which is basically sort of a crucial final sprint before the midterm elections in November. You know, I think of all the things that are likely to get done, there does seem to be bipartisan consensus this around a continuing resolution, one of these stopgap spending measures that would essentially avert a government shutdown when the fiscal year ends on September 30th and keep the government open until about a month after the midterm elections. No party benefits from having a shutdown right before an election. So there does seem to be consensus there. There are other areas, though, that are going to be trickier. The defense authorization bill, of course, that is is usually gets bipartisan support, but due to efforts to attach voter identification legislation to that that is becoming certainly a flashpoint. So now Republican leaders are trying to attract fiscal conservatives and others, hardliners within the GOP to support that bill by attaching extraneous measures, assuming that Democrats will vote en masse against against it. There are other issues, including a stock trading ban that is now being that used to be a bipartisan effort and is now a it appears that it's mostly a Republican or perhaps a Republican only measure, due once again to efforts to attach voter ID legislation to that as well as concerns among Democrats that the new legislation does not have enough teeth for actual enforcement.
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Kailey Leinz
Well, and on this voter ID idea, Megan, we did hear from President Trump about this on True Social Today. He thanked a number of members of the House, including the speaker, for launching an effort to get as much of the Save America act as possible in a budget bill. He goes on to mention different components, voter photo id, proof of citizenship, and hopefully he says, and this is a quote, no corrupt mail in ballots. How much of that is actually possible inside of budget reconciliation?
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Megan Scully
Well, it's not really, at least within the Senate, where the parliamentarian has to rule whether something comports with very strict budget guidelines that allow a chamber to allow this chamber to pass it without being at risk of a filibuster. So essentially pass it by a simple majority by 50, 51 votes. So the Save America act as it's written now, it does not, it would not likely comport with these, with these budgetary rules because it is not budgetary in nature. Now, the reconciliation 3.0, as we're calling it, it does have some grant programs in there for voter ID efforts. So that would presumably kind of make the cut for the rules, I would think. Of course, this is up to the parliamentarian, but the, the overall bill is a policy bill and not a budget bill. So and it's unlikely that it would make it and it certainly would not get 60 votes, which would be needed to overcome a filibuster.
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Kailey Leinz
All right, Bloomberg's Megan Scully, who leads our Capital Influence team here in Washington. Thank you so much. And I'm pleased to say joining us now in our Washington, D.C. studios, Republican Congressman Mike Flood of Nebraska, who chairs the Republican Main Street Caucus. Congressman, welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio. It's nice to see you in person.
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Congressman Mike Flood
Thank you very much. Megan was right on top of all her reports there. I can leave now, right?
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Kailey Leinz
Well, she outlines that you have a very busy week, as does the rest of your colleagues in the chamber. Are you going to get all of this done in four days?
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Congressman Mike Flood
It is a very big week and it's a very important week because as you note, we are back in our districts for recess. I have a town hall next week. We've got things planned. And so if we can pull this week off, it will be a, a major victory for House Republicans and our speaker.
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Joe Matthew
What's number one for you? Is it getting this reconciliation bill off the launchpad and finding a home for Save America?
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, I think I have two shared number one priorities. One would be passing the continuing resolution tonight.
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Joe Matthew
Okay.
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Congressman Mike Flood
The House of Representatives planning to fund the government before the election because a shutdown is not in America's interest. And then number two would be the reconciliation 3.0. My guess is it'll be hard to get, get that much further down the street on NDAA because there's a lot of other provisions that we're considering.
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Joe Matthew
You get a C.R. tonight, though. Yes, that's entirely possible.
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Congressman Mike Flood
Yes. I mean, I'm hopeful we have the votes.
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Kailey Leinz
That would be a big story on reconciliation, obviously. 95 billion of dollars in spending, no offsets for this. And you mentioned that you had a town hall earlier this month and you'll have one coming up next week. At that town hall, you were asked by an attendee, why do you support Trump when he adds to the debt? This would add to the debt. Right. Why not include payforce?
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, first of all, most of this money is to replace our munitions. It's in our national security, given our military operations in Venezuela and the Middle East. And second, if we were to go the route of a Regular supplemental with 60 votes in the Senate, we would be doing a deal with the Democrats somewhere north of $400 billion. I'm absolutely sure of it. And so this does what we have to do in that it replenishes our munitions. There's aid to agriculture, the SAVE act, and then there's a couple other minor things. But ultimately, I think there's a debt ceiling discussion happening. But ultimately. Welcome back. Ultimately, all of this comes together, and I think this is a lot less expensive than it would have been. And by the way, last year we cut $2 trillion out of federal spending for the first time in, like, decades.
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Joe Matthew
Defense Secretary and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs will be on the Hill tomorrow testifying about the budget request for the Pentagon. It's not just the supplemental, if we're even still calling that anymore. But when you talk about the need to replace munitions, President says we need a trillion and a half Dollars not only to fund operations, but to replace everything that has been fired, not just in this conflict, but in Ukraine, of course, in helping to protect Israel. There's a lot there. How difficult will it be for the Secretary and the Chairman to make that argument? And do you think that this number will land somewhere near 1.5 trillion when you put these bills together?
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Congressman Mike Flood
No, no, no, I do not think so.
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Joe Matthew
What's a realistic, I mean, I think
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Congressman Mike Flood
a realistic target for what we need. Military wise, what we need, what we want. What we need are two different things, right? Would be like 350 billion. But you know, the White House and the House leadership, they've decided to embark on this path with reconciliation. I think they've got 67. That's right. Billion dollars in there for the armed forces, 11 billion for agriculture. That is really the first step of many. And plus after November, you know, we're going to find out what the next step is. There's even talk, and this is remote, of a reconciliation 4.0. I don't know how possible that is given the financial year and everything. But there is is a conversation about
- [26:58]
Kailey Leinz
it, I guess got across the first bridge you get to first you mentioned the aid to farmers.
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Public.com Advertiser
Right.
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Kailey Leinz
We've seen a few rounds of aid that has to go to the agricultural sector. Is that to you, Congressman, a failure of the President's tariff policies is that this is now required, you need to subsidize Americans.
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, the reality was, you know, Mexico wasn't buying our white corn under Joe Biden. We were entering a kind of a dark era in, under the Joe Biden terms. So prices, commodity prices aren't where they need to be. Certainly fertilizer is one of the inputs that's driving a lot of the stress in ag. So the 11 billion is helpful. I think ultimately, Jamison Greer, getting more markets for our soybeans, our corns, our grain, all of that is in our interest. And I hope, I hope we're close to something more with China.
- [27:46]
Joe Matthew
The analysis from Bloomberg Intelligence on that farm money, is that a lot of it, if not all of it, will be used by farmers to pay off debt? For instance, you might not be buying John Deere right now because you have to manage your own finances. Does that mean that there'll be need to be another turn here, There'll be another tranche of money for farmers down the road?
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, I think it's maybe inaccurate to say just for debt. If you're 62 years old and you've got equity, you're in A much different, different spot than a 43 year old farmer with a lot of debt. The 43 year old farmer is managing operational debt. Probably be going to go through a renewal cycle here in the next three or four. Well now maybe the next six months, all of that will come around and hopefully we see, you know, uptick in soybeans. We have been watching those prices very closely.
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Rick Davis
Yes.
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Marco Rubio
Right.
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Kailey Leinz
Well, and you mentioned fertilizer prices. Of course, that has become perhaps more acute due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and difficulty getting vital ingredients to fertilizer out of the waterway. It's still an active conflict zone as we speak. And of course, we had three more American service members die over the weekend. How much more difficult does that make your job in talking to your constituents and trying to explain why it is that these individuals lost their lives, why we still find ourselves mired in the Middle east when the president initially said this would just be a matter of a few weeks.
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, remember, we're talking about a regime that has vowed death to America. I've said if I've said it once, I've said it 10 times, if they get their hands on a nuclear weapon, if they get their hands on a dirty bomb, they would not hesitate to use it on US Soil. They have proven that they are martyrs. Essentially. The people that stepped in after the leadership earlier this year was eliminated, you know, a new round stepped in. So I think President Trump has to deal using force to people that have been using force on us. I still think the president's position and a great majority of us in Congress want to find a solution that's long term. We've been close a couple of times. It's a very complex region, but I think that's the president's focus.
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Joe Matthew
We spent some time reviewing your town hall of July 7, which is why Kaylee mentioned one of the questions you were asked. You're not the only one. But you are part of a smaller, maybe shrinking circle of lawmakers that continue continues to hold town hall meetings, have face to face conversations, at some, at times difficult ones. And we salute you for that.
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Congressman Mike Flood
Thank you.
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Joe Matthew
I'm wondering if you plan to do more and why isn't everyone acting like Mike Flood?
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Congressman Mike Flood
Well, I do three a year and I'm going to have one coming up next week in Lincoln, which is the biggest city, probably the bluest city in my district. Yeah, nothing gets better if we don't talk to each other. And you certainly understand that in the media. Listen, I've had town halls with 10 people show up up because, you know, there just isn't that emotion there now. There's a lot of emotion in the air. There's a lot of opinions on both sides.
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Marco Rubio
Sure.
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Congressman Mike Flood
I think it's good just to show up and I hope more people do it in the future.
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Joe Matthew
Well, it's an example for your colleagues. Congressman, it's great to see you. Mike flood, Republican from Nebraska's 1st District. He chairs the Republican Main Street Caucus. That should give you a sense of the debate that we're walking into. What's going to be a doozy of a week on Capitol Hill. Kelly, thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already at Apple, Spotify, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington, D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com
- [31:08]
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