Balance of Power – Trump, Xi Strike Truce on Tariffs, Rare Earths

Host: Joe Mathieu (Bloomberg)
Guests/Contributors: Kailey Leinz, Tyler Kendall (Bloomberg), Mary Lovely (Peterson Institute), Lisa Camuso Miller (Republican strategist), Megan Hayes (Democratic strategist), Congressman Jake Auchincloss

Date: October 30, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode examines the major developments from the recent summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, focusing on the newly-announced truce on tariffs and negotiations over rare earth minerals and agricultural trade. The show features expert analysis on the implications of the deal for U.S.–China relations, the underlying issues not addressed by the agreement, and the potential economic and political consequences. A second segment pivots to analysis of upcoming key U.S. elections and the ongoing government shutdown, before ending on the state of air traffic control under the shutdown and U.S. energy policy.

Key Segments and Analysis

1. Trump–Xi Summit: Truce Details and Immediate Reactions

[00:50] – [06:55]

Main Points

• Length and Attendance: The summit in South Korea lasted ~1h 40min with top U.S. officials present, including the ambassador to China.
• Initial Outcome: President Trump hailed the meeting as “amazing” and rated it a “12 out of 10,” but specifics remain sparse.
• Tariffs: Immediate 10% cut to U.S. tariffs on China (now effectively 47%), with the threat of a 100% tariff withdrawn.
• Rare Earths and Trade: China grants access to rare earth minerals, resumes purchase of U.S. soybeans—12 million tons for 2025, 25 million annually through 2028.
• No Progress On: Blackwell chip sales to China (Nvidia), TikTok, and Taiwan (which “didn't come up”).
• Energy Prospects: Prospect of a major China–Alaska oil and gas deal being explored, but no agreement yet.

Quotes

• President Trump:

  “It was an outstanding group of decisions, I think that was made and we've come to conclusion on many very important points. Many important points.” – [01:28]

• Joe Mathieu:

  “We’re still trying to figure out exactly what was accomplished beyond the one year truce.” – [01:37]

Additional Context

• The rare earth provision and agricultural quotas are presented as the most concrete wins, but as Bloomberg’s Tyler Kendall notes:

  “At the end of the day, the root causes that led to the standoff between the US and China really haven't been resolved…” – Tyler Kendall [03:50]

2. Expert Reactions: Was This a Win for the U.S.?

[06:55] – [15:29]

Larry Summers’ Perspective

• Key Takeaway:

  “The most important thing is what didn’t happen. This situation didn’t spiral out of control...and that’s the good news.” – Larry Summers [07:17]

Mary Lovely's Assessment

• Critique:

  “A lot of this conflict was stirred up by President Trump in attempts to gain some leverage. China showed a very strong weapon...rare earths...and I think the US blinked.” – Mary Lovely [08:20]

• On U.S. Strategy:

  “The US is focused on short term deals. That asymmetry is not going to serve us well moving forward.” – [08:44]

• On the soybean purchase deal:

  “For China, this is just another chip that it can turn on and turn off.” – [10:34]

• On Taiwan being out of scope:

  “Right now we all benefit from as little attention to Taiwan as possible.” – [11:47]

• On tech/AI:

  “We're moving very, very quickly into the era where China is going to be very competitive in embodied intelligence...that use AI to bring those productivity improvements to fruition.” – [12:35]

• On the lack of detail for Blackwell chips (Nvidia):

  “I don't think we have much clarity on where these lines are going to be drawn.” – [14:00]

Key Summary Points

• The truce buys time but is largely a pullback from recent tariff escalations.
• Major structural issues—national security, tech decoupling, fentanyl, TikTok—remain unresolved.
• The U.S. may be ceding leverage to a more strategically patient China.

3. U.S. Domestic Politics: Election Previews

[17:51] – [28:38]

New York Mayoral Race

• Poll numbers for Mandani range from a 10–25% lead.
• Early voting is strong; key issues are street safety and economic stability.
• Notable endorsement: Michael Bloomberg and the United Bodegas of America for Mandani.
• Quote (Megan Hayes):

  “Anything—you only have to win by one vote. So I think that...he’ll be fine and it will probably be an early night.” – [20:32]

Republican/Democratic Strategist Analysis

• Lisa Camuso Miller:

  “If I'm Andrew Cuomo, I'm talking about stability and I'm talking about predictability because that's what people want to see…” – [22:07]

New Jersey & Virginia Gubernatorial Races

• Both are tight; Democrats are favored but affordability is a driving issue.
• If both Mikie Sherrill (NJ) and Abigail Spanberger (VA) win, it would be the first time two women simultaneously led the states as governor.
• Predictions: NJ race could be exceptionally close—possibly a recount.

4. Government Shutdown Effects – Air Travel and Social Safety Nets

[30:38] – [36:17]

FAA & Air Traffic Control

• Real World Impact:

  “We begin seeing ground stops at airports around the country because of the government shutdown. Remembering that air traffic controllers are not being paid.” – Joe Mathieu [30:55]

• Congressman Auchincloss:

  “The air traffic controls have been warning about this. They're working without being paid. Contrast that with Speaker Johnson, who's being paid without working.” – [32:34]

• Controllers may take other jobs, leading to staffing shortages and unsafe conditions.

SNAP and Social Programs

• Potential risk to food benefits for families with children as shutdown continues.
• Auchincloss:

  “Illegally withholding those SNAP funds is callous and cruel.” – [35:24]

• State governments (e.g., MA) are trying to fill gaps, but ultimately these are federal programs.

5. U.S.–China Relations, Strategy, and Energy Policy

[36:17] – [43:02]

Pentagon/Nuclear Tests

• President Trump called for renewed nuclear testing (“on an equal basis with Russia and China”).
• Auchincloss:

  “He’s trying to saber rattle to distract from the fact that he started a trade war with China and American farmers are now losing it…” – [37:09]

Tech & Energy Policy

• Debate over Nvidia chip exports: conflicting priorities between national security and technological leadership.
• Auchincloss:

  “Jensen Huang is talking his own book...The President should be looking in a long-term way about American competitiveness.” – [39:47]

• Calls for industrial policy focusing on American energy dominance, rare earths supply chain, and research investment.
• Next-gen geothermal cited as promising for energy independence and lowering costs.
• Critique of current administration for short-termism and “crony capitalism.”

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Joe Mathieu (on the truce):

  “We're still trying to figure out exactly what was accomplished beyond the one year truce.” [01:37]

• Mary Lovely (on US strategy):

  “It’s a little bit sense of back to the future… The US blinked.” [08:16]

• Larry Summers:

  “The most important thing is what didn’t happen. This situation didn’t spiral out of control.” [07:17]

• Tyler Kendall:

  “At the end of the day, the root causes...really haven't been resolved...we are mainly pulling back on the escalation from really just the past few weeks alone.” [04:48]

• Congressman Auchincloss (on nuclear testing):

  “He's trying to saber rattle to distract from the fact that he started a trade war with China...” [37:09]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Trump–Xi Truce Details: [00:50] – [06:55]
• Expert Reactions – Summers & Lovely: [06:55] – [15:29]
• NY/NJ/VA Elections Analysis: [17:51] – [28:38]
• Government Shutdown Impacts (FAA, SNAP): [30:38] – [36:17]
• Pentagon, U.S.–China Tech, Energy: [36:17] – [43:02]

Tone & Takeaways

The episode maintains a brisk, analytical tone, blending expert skepticism with a sense of the ongoing complexity of U.S.–China relations. There is clear frustration among analysts and policymakers about the lack of deep, strategic progress—most see the truce as a de-escalation, not a solution. The U.S. domestic political scene is portrayed as divided and reactive, with foundational issues like national security, social safety nets, and energy policy still unsettled as the government shutdown drags on.

This summary should help you grasp the major themes, opinions, and consequences discussed in the episode.