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- [00:00]
Narrator/Announcer
How can you free your team from time consuming office tasks? Amazon Business empowers leaders to not only streamline purchasing, but better support their teams. Smart business buying tools enable buyers to find and purchase items fast so they can focus on strategy and growth. It's time to free up your teams and focus on your future. Learn more about the technology, insights and Support available@AmazonBusiness.com Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts Radio news. You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [00:51]
Joe Matthew
Welcome to the Friday edition of Balance of Power. You've made it to the threshold of the weekend and this is going to be quite a Friday for Volodymyr Zelinsky. He's in town right now, spent the night at Blair House, and of course, well, right across the street sits the White House, where he's going to be about a half an hour from now if things go on time. The president of the United States will greet the president of Ukraine outside the West Wing, as we've been seeing now with a parade of world leaders most recently. I don't know if he's going to get the color guard today. We'll have to see what kind of hospitality he receives, Mario, because we've seen all flavors when it comes to Zelinsky in the Oval, right down to his dressing down on his first visit to what seemed to be a pretty good conversation last time he was here.
- [01:29]
Mario Parker
Yes. And I like what you did there with the dressing down.
- [01:31]
Joe Matthew
Ah, you saw that.
- [01:32]
Mario Parker
Indeed.
- [01:33]
Joe Matthew
Think he's got a suit?
- [01:34]
Mario Parker
I think he should, I think.
- [01:36]
Joe Matthew
Pun not intended.
- [01:37]
Mario Parker
Yeah. And if he didn't have a suit, I think after hearing President Trump's comments following his call with Vladimir Putin yesterday, he very well should turn on the charm offensive with the president here in the Oval Office.
- [01:50]
Joe Matthew
That's right. Well, you know, you talked about that call with Putin. The statement that came out from President Trump on Truth Social really raised a lot of eyebrows here. I can't imagine what Zelenskyy him as we now apparently have another meeting in the works. There was not a mention of secondary sanctions nor a mention of tomahawks, at least in the Post he did tell reporters later it came up. But just very briefly, let's listen to what the president said following that call yesterday.
- [02:15]
Donald Trump (quoted)
I thought it was a very good phone call. I thought very productive. But I'll be meeting with President Putin and we'll make a determination tomorrow. I'm meeting with President Zelensky and I'll be telling them about the call. I mean, we have a problem. They don't get along too well, those two. We hope we're going to get it stopped.
- [02:35]
Joe Matthew
Didn't call it a perfect call, but it sounds like he thought it went pretty well. And this is where we start our conversation with Ian Kelly, ambassador in residence at Northwestern University was former ambassador, US Ambassador to Georgia, former US Ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, and former State Department spokesman under Secretary Hillary Clinton with a resume that is appropriate for the conversation. Mr. Ambassador, welcome back to Bloomberg. It's great to see you. What are your expectations for this meeting and were they lowered by that call with Putin?
- [03:08]
Ian Kelly
Well, I think that I was disappointed in the fact that although the president seemed to want to keep the momentum up for peacekeeping or his peacekeeping role after the Gaza agreement, but unfortunately, he doesn't seem to have learned the lessons of the Gaza agreement. They were able to get to that agreement with Hamas because Israel, with the help of the US had established complete dominance over Hamas in two ways, imposing crushing costs on the aggressor and then isolating the aggressor. His Trump's truth social seemed to take off the table a couple of those costs that he had been talking about and the Senate had been talking about, that's longer range weapons like the Tomahawks and the crushing secondary sanctions in the Senate bill. The other lesson, of course, is isolate the aggressor. And this is not isolating Putin by giving him another summit meeting, this time in the capital of another leader who's been under isolation, Viktor Orban in Budapest. So the signs are not encouraging that we're going to see some kind of breakthrough, unfortunately.
- [04:37]
Mario Parker
And Ambassador, you make a great point in terms of Viktor Orban. I mean, in one of the last meetings at the Oval Office, Zelenskyy promised to meet Vladimir Putin anywhere, anytime, in order to hash out some type of P.E. between the two. Hungary seems to be, I mean, in some ways very not the friendliest toward Zelensky. Right. So how if the president, if President Trump today tries to pressure Zelenskyy on that meeting, how does he play it? How tough is it to commit to that and follow through on that promise, given the territory in Hungary?
- [05:21]
Ian Kelly
Yeah. I mean, Viktor Orban has not been a great friend of Ukraine. He has not agreed to a number of EU initiatives to help Ukraine. He hasn't joined his fellow EU leaders. He has some concerns about Ukraine because of the eastern border of Hungary. So it's not a good sign that this is being, this summit is taking place in a Russia friendly and Ukraine hostile country. And so this is yet another sign that Vladimir Putin, Putin is putting, you know, putting scores on the board even before the meeting takes place.
- [06:23]
Joe Matthew
Ambassador, I want to ask you about the Tomahawk specifically because the language we heard from President Trump last evening did not sound like we were about to send a shipment to Kiev. Let's listen to what he said. Again following the call with Putin.
- [06:37]
Donald Trump (quoted)
We talked about it a little bit, didn't say much. But I do say to you, you know, we need Tomahawks for the United States of America too. We have a lot of them, but we need them. I mean we, we can't deplete for our country. So you know, they're very vital, they're very powerful, they're, they're very accurate, they're very good. But we need them too. So I don't know what we can do about that.
- [07:03]
Joe Matthew
Ambassador, when you hear we need them, we can't deplete for our country, what does that tell you?
- [07:11]
Ian Kelly
Well, he's breaking a cardinal rule of negotiating with the Russians and that's, you know, don't negotiate away leverage before you even start negotiating. It's probable that Putin called Trump. I mean Putin initiated the call because he's afraid that Ukraine will have the kind of long range capability that will be able to take out more military and economic assets. Right now they can only send drones which do not pack much of a punch at all in any sort of long range way. So the to say that, yeah, I don't think we are going to send them these because we need them here. It's kind of breaking that cardinal rule of don't give things up before you actually start negotiating.
- [08:13]
Mario Parker
Ambassador Kelly, thank you so much for joining us today here on Bloomberg Balance of Power. We really do appreciate it. And we're joined now by Mike Bloomberg, senior analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence on crude oil prices. We know that crude oil prices have been top of mind for President Trump. Center on Geopolitics as well. Mike, thanks so much for joining us. I do have a fine spot in my heart as a former commodities reporter here at Bloomberg News. Prices for crude oil, I mean I think I saw on CO1 GP this is a third or fourth day of declines. We're in some very low territory here. What's driving that?
- [09:00]
Mike Bloomberg
Yes, hello, Mario. Our paths across a lot in Chicago, being from Chicago, which is where I Learned trading from the Chicago trading. It's the key thing about crude oil is it's a pretty substantial bear market, but it's a bear market for what was mentioned with earlier part of program. When Russia invaded Ukraine, it pumped up prices really high, incentivize all that new production and tilted the will towards alternative alternatives. That is all the EVs that are being sold around the world, most notably in China. So now we're in the midst of a pretty significant bear market. It's about where do we find the low price cure. So right now WTI crude oil is about $57 a barrel. The average price in 2019 before the COVID and everything was $57 a barrel. The low this year is 55. We're right about the US cost of production and rural commodities usually have to get below that cost of production to offset these excesses of supply and demand. On a global scale. It's also a sign when crude oil goes down and goals go up. Sign of a global recessionary trajectory. So looking forward the last 20 years, the lowest of crude oil has been around 40. I started saying that about three years ago that we might go down to 40. Didn't look so good in 2022, but I think we're still heading towards 40. The key thing to remember when crude oil is down about 20% in a year, that stock market's up about 15%. If the stock market just tilts a little bit lower, that's a significant deflationary force.
- [10:20]
Joe Matthew
Wow, Fascinating. Mike, it's great to see you. I. I think it's time for you to take a bit of a victory lap here before we ask any more questions. And maybe you will at the money show in Orlando today because you told us this was going to happen. We're going to drop below 60. You told us gold is going to top 4,000 and we're looking in the rearview mirror at 4,000. Now. I don't know what the next stop in the road is here and I'm also looking at bitcoin today, which I don't know if this is interrupting your base case, but this risk off situation with bitcoin even as good old fashioned gold continues to climb. First of all, congratulations on being just absolutely correct on your calls. How do you rationalize what we're seeing now with all three?
- [11:01]
Mike Bloomberg
Sometimes you get them right and sometimes you get it wrong. And something to get right you have to be thrown down in the mat. And I took a while, I kept thinking gold is going to go above 2000 for four years and finally it did. The key thing now is gold is just plain scary, Joe. It's rallying so fast. If you look at relative to its 4050 and 60 month moving average, it's so high you have to go back to 1981. The last time it got this high. People like Tom Keene would say it's like a fifth standard deviation move. So it's very expensive. But it's happening for a reason. And, and crude oil going down is a reason. But part of that, what's right in the middle is people are reminding is that gold is the old school, old fashioned store value. It's been around forever. Bitcoin's a new one. The problem is gold. Yes.
- [11:48]
Joe Matthew
We're just about to get the. He's breaking up. Don't do it to me. Come on. The Internet lost today. I wanted to hear the end of that. Oh, geez, Mike, you broke up on me. I don't. We need to see if you can say that again real quick. We got 30 seconds. No, he's frozen. All right. We love you, Mike. I got to get the bitcoin line from Mike McGlone. Find him on the terminal and online our commodities trader at bi. Have a great weekend, Mike. I'll tell you what. Bitcoin is back above 106,000 but still down $1300 about 1% today. Stay with us on balance of power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [12:33]
Public Investing Advertiser
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- [13:35]
Narrator/Announcer
The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg 1130.
- [13:53]
Joe Matthew
We keep our eyes on a couple of moving parts here, including an imminent meeting between President Trump and President Zelensky. They're preparing in the West Wing for his arrival right now. He was supposed to be there about 13 minutes ago at the top of the hour. These things tend to go late. When these two gentlemen do sit down, we're going to bring you in the room so you can hear everything that the reporters hear, live and unfiltered, knowing that these have taken on a couple of different shapes in what is now the fourth visit by Zelensky to the White House. He spent the evening at Blair House across the street and he is, by the way, expected to hold his own press conference with reporters afterward. Now, we did hear from President Trump about this meeting yesterday because he spoke on the phone for some time. It was a two hour call, we understand, with Vladimir Putin remembering that Zelenskyy wanted Tomahawk missiles, cruise missiles that could reach Moscow to help turn the tide in this war. President Trump suggested that he was considering that request. But then we heard from him yesterday following his call from Putin and it's unclear where we stand. Here's the President.
- [14:56]
Donald Trump (quoted)
We talked about it a little bit, didn't say much. But I do say to you, you know, we need Tomahawks for the United States of America too. We have a lot of them, but we need them. I mean, we, we can't deplete for our country. So, you know, they're very vital, they're very powerful, they're very accurate, they're very good. But we need them too. So I don't know what we can do about that.
- [15:22]
Joe Matthew
Okay, so how many do we have? How many could we afford to give and what difference would it actually make in the war? We thought we would talk to an expert, a voice you've heard before on this program and seen before on balance of Power. Ben Jensen is back with us. He's director of the Futures Lab and senior fellow for the Defense and Security Department at the center for Strategic and International Studies. Csis. Ben, welcome back. It's great to have you on Bloomberg. Some basic questions to start with here. In terms of the efficacy of a Tomahawk missile. If you put this in the hands of the Ukrainians, could it in fact reach Moscow? What type of damage would it do and what would be the impact on the war?
- [16:04]
Ben Jensen
Sure. Yeah, great. To be back again. And because you have empirical viewers, let's start with just the facts.
- [16:10]
Joe Matthew
Super.
- [16:11]
Ben Jensen
The Tomahawk, the way it works is it does have the range characteristics where fired from either in the air can go further or from the ground, not as far, but either firing trajectory would mean that it could reach strategically important targets in and around Moscow and other centers. This is why Putin really needs to try to declare a new red line. What is we up to? Like his 20th red line? Who knows? But that's the real efficacy of it. It's range. The other key factor isn't just that it can go far with a big boom. It's how it actually flies. The Tomahawk is amazing because this is actually old 80s technology. It actually flies based upon digital maps. It creates the terrain beneath it. So this means it actually is less susceptible to GPS jamming because it's following its own almost version of terrain recognition. That also means it can fly lower than some radars can pick it up. So a Tomahawk is designed to fly long distances, to stay low to the ground, and then to pop up and hit the target so the defender has less time to react. That's why it's such a disturbing weapon for the Russians and so effective for the Ukrainians.
- [17:13]
Joe Matthew
Would we have to also provide a delivery system, or could this be delivered by boat, by ground, by aircraft that Ukraine already has?
- [17:23]
Ben Jensen
You know, Ukraine is second only to MacGyver in its ability to make battlefield improvisation. So I have no doubt the Ukrainians would find a way to fire even if we somehow forgot to deliver it, which our military is good. We wouldn't. The bigger question is how much intelligence would you pass with it? Okay, are you helping train the flight profiles and routes? This has been an issue with scout missiles in the past. Tomahawk is a cruise missile. European countries have given other cruise missiles to the Ukrainians in the past. So you're right, it does come with a support package. It's not just you buy it off the shelf, you take it home and use it. You have to think about that intelligence package and then also, how are you firing it?
- [17:58]
Joe Matthew
Okay, let's talk inventories. President Trump, who was open to this idea a couple of days ago, says, hey, we need them too, and we cannot deplete. Do we have a sense of how many we have?
- [18:07]
Ben Jensen
So not as readily as you think. Usually, you know, defense wonks like myself spend time, like, looking at congressional budgets to see how many were ordered and how many were bought, and then sometimes we don't get accurate Numbers in the number shot in terms of actual strikes on an enemy or much less in training. So what we do know is this is a high demand asset. Right. You always hear that term. It's why it's ubiquitous now to say Tomahawk, which means there's never enough. And the bigger issue we have is that we just can't produce many of these missiles at the large enough quantities and in a timely manner. Especially when we're confronted with the world where one day we might fire a Tomahawk from a destroyer to hit a Houthi, the next day we might give it to Ukrainian to shoot something in Russia, but then the following day we all of a sudden need to fire a thousand of them in the defense of a treaty ally like the Philippines or Japan because of the Taiwan scenario.
- [19:00]
Joe Matthew
Okay, so you mentioned Yemen, by the way. We've popped off a lot of these at Yemen and they come at what, a million dollars a pop?
- [19:08]
Ben Jensen
Yeah. Prices vary. And remember, the way the defense contracts work, it isn't just as simple. You have to go for an average, A million bucks a pop on average. But it depends on the block. And so my guess is we're probably going to give older inventory, lower block item Tomahawks to the Ukrainians to fire ones that we would be kind of. Kind of like we did with some of the ATACMs that we're nearing the end of their service life. So it's still an amazing missile. That's not to discount its power.
- [19:32]
Joe Matthew
Sure.
- [19:32]
Ben Jensen
But we're not going to be giving them the latest block that is more advanced and has maybe even some other features that would be of interest.
- [19:39]
Joe Matthew
Could it change the strategy for Ukraine? Could it break this war of attrition? Or would this just be an opportunity to provide a deterrent.
- [19:49]
Ben Jensen
Yeah.
- [19:49]
Joe Matthew
For Vladimir Putin. How would it be employed?
- [19:51]
Ben Jensen
I tend to look at this and this is where I think something is happening that's more interesting than gets credit in the Trump administration. I think that they're actually having what I would call a compounding coercive campaign right now. So the Tomahawks are actually a powerful deterrent and a powerful negotiating mechanism, even if not a single one enters Ukraine. Now Vladimir Putin has to reckon with the Americans can give the Ukrainians something that can hit targets with a bigger boom than the long range drones attacks that are hitting Russian oil, Russia refineries. Yes, that is taken by compounding because now think of the economic side. We've got the Indian oil dynamics going on. We've got this new call for a victory tariff to further hit Chinese support to Russia. We've got existing sanctions, we've got EU calls to create really interesting, like structured financial products, like essentially loans off Russian frozen assets. And we even have a bill in the US where we would essentially take up, I think it's about 6 billion, it's a few billion dollars of Russian frozen assets and give it to the Ukrainians. So I actually see the economic dimensions of that coercive campaign as more deterrent than the individual Tomahawk delivery. But you can't separate them. I think the Trump team has developed a pretty sophisticated notion of this compounding coercive signal to try to really put the hard press on Putin in the wake of Gaza to then kind of put at least, at least freeze the conflict, if not outright end.
- [21:13]
Joe Matthew
Fascinating. It's, it's a, it's a, it's a great theory and it makes a lot of sense. And I wonder when you consider the hotspots around the world, the amount of munitions that we're providing and using. There was fascinating analysis from Colonel Sanders at Bloomberg Intelligence, who sits right in the newsroom with us and was out with a client note talking about a potential rerating of the major defense contractors based on the massive orders for missiles specifically that are going to be coming. Tomahawk is a Lockheed product who makes it.
- [21:43]
Ben Jensen
Well, remember, the weirdest part about most of these is because after that famous thing you call the last supper in defense, where you went from a lot of firms to a few firms, it's.
- [21:52]
Joe Matthew
Never as simple as everyone makes everything. Here it takes every company to make something.
- [21:56]
Ben Jensen
And never think about a missile as just a missile. A missile is a series of component of parts from a rocket engine to a guidance system to a warhead to avionics to a command and control suite. So usually the really interesting way to look at these weapons systems, and especially for Bloomberg watchers, as you're thinking about this from how do you make bets upon the possibility of protracted conflict or the recapitalization of the American industrial base? You really have to look at it at that angle. Then you start making very different bets because it turns out probably in a couple years we're probably going to have more rocket motors than we need, but we might not have as many drones as we need. And so you have to start to look carefully at what companies, who are their contracts, who are their suppliers. You then got to throw in weird curve balls like this whole critical mineral thing and the magnets. So it's never just as simple as Boeing or a Lockheed or a Northrop, all of whom make phenomenal weapons. It's what part of the end item do they make? And then where do we understand those supply chains? And because of that complexity, that's why it's so hard to recapitalize the defensive industrial base.
- [23:00]
Joe Matthew
What a great answer. So it sounds like for the investor, you might be looking at a basket. You're buying, you're buying the industry maybe more than individual names, but where did the and rules come into play here and some of the other smaller, more nimble, more innovative defense contractors that are being profiled on 60 Minutes as the next big thing. Will that in fact change procurement at the Pentagon? Unmanned drone, whether it's air or water, knows.
- [23:27]
Ben Jensen
I mean, in some sense you don't.
- [23:28]
Joe Matthew
Seem impressed at all.
- [23:29]
Ben Jensen
So I'm impressed with some of their stuff, but I'll be more impressed when they have multiple factories that are mass producing.
- [23:34]
Joe Matthew
Understood. It's about scale for you.
- [23:36]
Ben Jensen
Yeah, it's about scale. And I also think a lot of the defense primes, despite the inefficiencies of federal procurement processes, a lot of our actually large primes are actually some of the most innovative companies you can find. It's American firms with DARPA that invent this thing called stealth. It's American firms actually working with DARPA researchers that invent the Internet. So I have yet to see any smart, amazing, disruptive company that has something as disruptive as stealth aircraft or the Internet.
- [24:02]
Joe Matthew
Really interesting.
- [24:03]
Ben Jensen
What I do see though, is that their willingness to create a more competitive kind of schumpeterian creative destruction landscape. So if nothing else, even if a lot of these new defense companies end up failing and failing tragically, they've at least forced interesting debates and energy, which is exactly what we want in capitalism. So I think they're serving a really important function. I think some of them will do amazing work. But don't discount some of the amazing stuff that these larger defense firms make.
- [24:28]
Joe Matthew
How much did we just learn in the last 10 minutes from Ben Jensen? Come on. Every day. That was truly helpful and I think we got a lot out of it. Ben, thank you so much. Always love CS is, which is just an incredible stable of talent and insight here on the program. Ben, thank you so much. Stay with us on balance of Power. We'll have much more coming up after this.
- [24:52]
Public Investing Advertiser
You're thoughtful about where your money goes. You've got your core holdings, some recurring crypto buys, maybe even a few strategic options plays on the side. The point is you're engaged with your investments and Public gets that. That's why they built an investing platform for those who take it seriously. On public you can put together a multi asset portfolio for the long long haul. Stocks, bonds, options, crypto. It's all there plus an industry leading 3.8% APY high yield cash account. Switch to the platform built for those who take investing seriously. Go to public.com and earn an uncapped 1% bonus when you transfer your portfolio. That's public.com paid for by Public Investing. All investing involves the risk of loss including loss of principal. Brokerage services for U.S. listed registered securities options and bonds in a small self directed account are offered by Public Investing Inc. Member Finran SIPC crypto trading provided by Bakkt Crypto Solutions LLC. Complete disclosures available@public.com disclosures you're listening to.
- [25:54]
Narrator/Announcer
The Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at noon and 5pm Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- [26:10]
Joe Matthew
You got to the end of the week, the government still closed it, showing no signs of opening, and Washington's attention is turning to other matters today, including President Zelensky's visit to the White House that's scheduled for 20 minutes from now. We'll see how on time things are when the two presidents sit down and welcome reporters into the room. We'll of course bring you there live for the conversation that follows President Trump's phone call with Vladimir Putin by only a day, and we have a lot of questions about what, if anything, this might lead to. Zelinsky is in town. He spent the night at Blair House across the street inside the White House complex and again should be crossing over there a short time from now. It's a beautiful day in Washington. Mario Parker we'll see if he takes the motorcade or if he actually decides to walk across the street.
- [26:52]
Mario Parker
Yes, absolutely. But we'll be watching, I mean every detail of this meeting. Again, just given how the president's comments yesterday, both on Truth Social after he concludes, included a phone call with Vladimir Putin, but also his comments in the Oval Office yesterday with reporters where he equivocated on tomahawks, which was supposed to be the subject of the meeting today.
- [27:14]
Joe Matthew
With Zelensky, might not have been terribly encouraged by what he heard. When Zelensky gets there, we'll bring you there too so we can experience this together. Last evening it was time for the popcorn. I don't know if you watched this New York mayoral debate. But, I mean, we really. We walk out on these like this is primetime entertainment for. For Mario and I. When we've got a ripper like this, especially when you're in an off cycle, we stop down. Thank God for C Span and the Internet. Of course, we all had a chance to watch this thing with Curtis Sliwa without the beret. He's had a whole makeover in this campaign. Of course, a more svelte looking former Governor Cuomo and Zoran Mamdani, whose name Curtis Lewis seemed to struggle with last evening. This is a race that a lot of people think they have figured out already, including the President of the United States, because Mamdani is so far ahead. And it's unclear that anything changed last night.
- [28:07]
Mario Parker
No, absolutely. Besides politics, I'm also a fan of the sweet science. And when you're down in the cards, as Cuomo is right now, you have to come out throwing some haymakers with the intent to at least get a knockout. Isn't that right, Momdani? When you're up with the cards, you just want to make sure that you're just landing jabs, that you stay clean for the most part.
- [28:27]
Joe Matthew
Listen to you.
- [28:28]
Mario Parker
To be what we had last night.
- [28:29]
Joe Matthew
With the debate, you go into fights this weekend.
- [28:31]
Mario Parker
I wish that I love this.
- [28:33]
Joe Matthew
Well, here's a little taste of what we saw with these candidates last evening in the debate.
- [28:37]
Mario Parker
This is not a job for a first timer. Any day you could have a hurricane, you, God forbid, a 9, 11, a health pandemic. If you don't know what you're doing, people die.
- [28:49]
Lisa Camuso Miller
Mr. Mandani want to respond?
- [28:51]
Ben Jensen
And if we have a healthy pandemic, then why would New Yorkers turn back to the governor who sent seniors to their death in nursing homes? That's the kind of experience that's on offer here today. What I don't have an experience, I make up for an integrity. And what you don't have an integrity, you could never make up for an experience.
- [29:06]
Public Investing Advertiser
Wow.
- [29:07]
Joe Matthew
That was a clearly prepared Mamdani, who for every zinger or point that Cuomo tried to make, he had a better one, it seemed, coming back.
- [29:16]
Mario Parker
Yeah, that was a haymaker that was.
- [29:18]
Joe Matthew
Okay, there you go.
- [29:20]
Mario Parker
To the anecdote. And that was a haymaker from the person that is up right now. And that's to our point. That's the one that really went viral that we saw.
- [29:27]
Joe Matthew
Yeah.
- [29:28]
Mario Parker
Circulating in political circle.
- [29:29]
Joe Matthew
He had some good lines. I mean, they clearly spent time preparing for this opportunity. And you're talking about A candidate who was already some 30 points ahead, depending on the poll. Let's assemble our panel because they love this stuff as much as we do. Bloomberg Politics contributor Jeannie Shan Zaino, by the way, in New York Democracy, visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ashe Center. But of course, our New York representative on this program, Lisa Camuso Miller with us here in the Capitol, former RNC communications director, a Republican strategist, and host of the Friday Reporter podcast. Now, I'm going to just warn everybody, I'm going to get your breakfast bodega order before this segment is out. But let's start, Jeannie, with style and substance. Did Mamdani just codify the polls last evening? Is he as good as New York's next mayor?
- [30:15]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah, and I love Mario. What was it, the sweet science. I'm learning all these new phrases from Mario. I'm loving this. Yeah. And by the way, Joe, I was on an Amtrak from Boston to New York City and you can bet I got myself all ready and I was able to stream. So thank God for streaming and boy, it was worth it. Yeah.
- [30:36]
Narrator/Announcer
Thank you.
- [30:37]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
You know, I think the reality is, is that as you mentioned the polls, the Fox poll had Mamdani up 25%. Cuomo has a long way to go. And of course, it would be a race that Cuomo wants to see in a head to head. But Curtis Lewis is going nowhere except losing his beret, as you mentioned. He is going nowhere. And he had some of the best lines of the night. And Cuomo could not lay a glove on Zoran Mandami. And you know, he didn't get any of those sort of viral moments. In fact, the best moments that Andrew Cuomo had, I think were when he was talking about his experience as a manager. But of course, Mamdani was able to come back and say, well, wait a minute, defend yourself and everything you did with the nursing homes. And, and he couldn't defend himself. But on housing and other things, Andrew Cuomo showed that that experience in HUD and elsewhere does matter. And then of course, Mamdani was smooth as a cucumber. He was smiling the whole time, unflappable and didn't make any errors. And so in this kind of race, they have one more debate, which is next Wednesday or next week, I should say. And unless Andrew Cuomo can lay a glove on him or really unless Sliwa gets out of the race, which he shows no signs of doing, this thing is probably a done deal and Mandani is going to walk into Gracie Mansion.
- [32:03]
Mario Parker
And, Lisa, I want to get your take on whether you think that Andrew Cuomo has a chance to come back. I mean, in this final stretch. What's odd, I think, is the fact that you've got President Trump, a Republican. He and Cuomo, there's no love lost there, but he's kind of tacitly endorsing or pushing for Cuor, Cuomo warning of Mamdani's mayoral campaign and liken it to some type of Democratic revolution or some such. Can Cuomo dig himself out of this hole?
- [32:34]
Lisa Camuso Miller
You know, Mario, I think you make a really good point, and it's one that I don't think that Cuomo can come out from. I think both he and Curtis Sliwa represent the old guard and the old news in New York. And we know how Manhattan likes to vote. I mean, we know how the city likes to operate. All those boroughs really make those decisions based on who can affect change at a time when people are looking for it. And I think that that's what is represented in this candidate. The president, though, absolutely wants. He wants to be able to have an advocate in the city, in Gracie Mansion, someone that maybe isn't his, his best friend, but one that he can predict, one that he can understand where he's going to go. I've heard other political people say that maybe Mamdani is the best foil for Donald Trump because he can appoint to New York City over and over again as a city that' not performing the way the president thinks it ought to be. So to me, there's no way that Mamdani does not win. To me, as long as he makes no more errors. Last night's debate was a tremendous performance on his part and good for him.
- [33:39]
Joe Matthew
Well, there you go from both our Democrat and Republican members of the panel. Cuomo is making the point, Jeannie, that if you elect Mamdani, you're going to have Mayor Trump, because tanks will be rolling in the streets of New York before election night is even over. Curtis Sliwa had a different take on this. Let's listen to what Mr. Sliwa had to say. The president is going to back down.
- [34:02]
Ben Jensen
To you, Andrew Cuomo.
- [34:03]
Joe Matthew
I know you think you're the toughest guy alive, but let me tell you something.
- [34:09]
Ben Jensen
You lost your own primary, right? You were rejected by your Democrats.
- [34:13]
Joe Matthew
Why did you have a different goal.
- [34:15]
Ben Jensen
Understanding that what the term no is.
- [34:19]
Joe Matthew
You'Re not going to stand up to Donald Trump.
- [34:21]
Ben Jensen
I agree with Curtis.
- [34:23]
Joe Matthew
I agree with Curtis. Mamdani gets in there, first of all. I mean, he's got the. He's got the right accent for the job, Jeannie. I guess that's just not worth enough to put him over the top here. But does he have a point when it comes to Cuomo? We talked about the difficulty he had in the primary. His ability to recover seems impossible. Slee was essentially providing the same analysis you are.
- [34:50]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
Yeah. And Curtis Levi, I'm telling you, it's a debate to rewatch. He had so many good zingers. He was calling Cuomo the architect or the father and Mamdani the apprentice. I mean, for people who don't like politicians to begin with, it's a great quip. And, you know, Donald Trump was really the candidate on the stage who wasn't there. I mean, they kept talking about him, and it's a big deal in New York. There is no love lost for hometown boy Donald Trump in New York City, as we all know. And so, you know, Curtis Lewa really did have a really good comeback to Andrew Cuomo. And of course, so did Mandani, because Mandani said, you know, the reality is with Donald Trump, number one, he's been attacking New York regardless of who's here or not. And number two, you know, the reality is, is that Andrew Cuomo is going to be another Eric Adams. He's going to be in Donald Trump's pocket. He's, you know, subject, as Mandani says, to the same big billionaire donors and blah, blah, blah. And so that is an attractive message for New Yorkers. You know, for Mandani, Trump's continued attacks are really helpful in a city that doesn't like Donald Trump that much. And one thing I would say about sleep, he's a different Republican because he's a leading Republican, obviously, but one that Donald Trump doesn't like either. I mean, he accused him of wanting to bring his hats into Gracie Mansion. And so, you know, for Curtis Levoy, he's walking this very tight line. He has a lot of cats. For anybody who doesn't know, I love cats. So I have no problem with no.
- [36:23]
Joe Matthew
Cats on stage last evening. And, you know, if you made it through this remarkable debate, you get to the softy questions at the end. Usually they'll ask you if you could say something nice about the other opponent. Last night, it was about breakfast. And if you're a New Yorker and you're asked, I'm looking at you, Lisa Camuso Miller, who called the New Jersey governor's race based on a pork roll comment from Mikey Sherrill. The food stuff's Important. If you want to pretend to be local, you're never going to fool them. And the question last night was, what is your breakfast bodega order? Let's listen. What's your go to breakfast order at the bodega? Mr. Sliwa?
- [37:05]
Donald Trump (quoted)
Oh, eggs and cheese on a roll, no salt, please.
- [37:10]
Ben Jensen
Mr. Cuomo?
- [37:11]
Joe Matthew
Same thing.
- [37:12]
Mario Parker
No salt. Also, Mr. Mamdani.
- [37:15]
Ben Jensen
Egg and cheese on a roll with jalapenos.
- [37:18]
Joe Matthew
Ah, see, but wait, you can't pick the same thing as the first guy. Even if that was your order, don't you need to change it right down to the no salt? It got us talking here in the newsroom, Jeannie and Lisa, and this became a cause here for the program on Balance of Power. We thought we'd take a little survey. The balance of power team Bodega orders. We're all part of this now. I'm just going to come right out with it. I'm a bacon, egg, and cheese on an English muffin guy. You can call me an elitist, but that's what I'm going to do. It turns out I might not be alone. Justin and America's producer, James Mahoney both went bacon, egg, and cheese, but they went with the spk Mario. Salt, pepper, ketchup. Elizabeth. Egg and cheese on a roll. CC Sausage, egg and cheese. Just like Nicholas. Salt and pepper on one, pepper and ketchup on the other. So Nicholas is going no salt. How about you? We got a minute left.
- [38:11]
Mario Parker
Well, I'm from Chicago, so we don't really do the bodegas, but I do see in the movies where they walk in and say, hey, give me a chopped cheese. Okay.
- [38:19]
Joe Matthew
Just like the movies. Lisa, you're the food expert here. When it comes to politics, did. Did Cuomo just lose the race based on this one question?
- [38:29]
Lisa Camuso Miller
Nah. But listen, it's pork roll, egg and cheese all the way on a hard roll. That's the way to go. And the no salt just reminds us that these guys are old.
- [38:39]
Joe Matthew
Jeannie, are you going to give me some tofu or something? What are you hitting at the bodega?
- [38:44]
Jeannie Shan Zaino
First, number one. I feel so much empathy for Andrew Cuomo because I would have been, like, the same, I guess I have no idea because I would just do coffee. I would be doing my coffee. I had nothing. I defer to Lisa.
- [38:56]
Joe Matthew
Yeah, black coffee would have been a pretty cool answer, I have to admit.
- [39:01]
Mario Parker
Absolutely. Well, thank you, JD Shan Zaino, Lisa Camuso Miller, thank you so much for joining us here at Balance of Power.
- [39:08]
Joe Matthew
A great hour. We're going to be, by the way, in New York for the election. We'll have special coverage that evening when we come around to November. We'll talk more about that between now and then. Great spend on the week with you Mario Parker. Have a great weekend. Have fun at the fights. I'm Joe Matthew, this is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, Apple, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts. And you can find us live every weekday from Washington D.C. at noontime eastern@bloomberg.com.
- [39:36]
Narrator/Announcer
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