Balance of Power – Trump’s TikTok Deal With China

Podcast: Bloomberg
Date: September 22, 2025
Host: Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz
Special Guests: Mike Shepard (Bloomberg), Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (D-MO), Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA), Rick Davis & Jeannie Shan Zaino (Bloomberg Contributors), Teresa Ribera (European Commission VP)

Episode Overview

This episode offers a deep dive into three influential policy fronts: President Trump’s deal over TikTok with China, the implications for tech and national security; energy policy and grid governance in the US with a focus on Pennsylvania; and transatlantic tensions around tech regulation and antitrust, particularly following EU action against Alphabet/Google. The show features sharp reporting, panel analysis, and interviews with US lawmakers and EU leaders, providing listeners with balanced insight on issues at the intersection of technology, policy, and power.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Trump’s TikTok Deal: Details, Concerns, and Geopolitical Implications

(00:55 – 05:40; with further panel at 31:06 – 38:41)

• Current Status & Structure of the Deal

  • The deal is "still pretty fluid" but key terms are clearer. (Mike Shepard, 01:17)
  • U.S. version of TikTok to operate with a licensed and retrained video recommendation algorithm, managed by Oracle.
  • Oracle will be responsible for data security and ensuring the US-based algorithm; ByteDance will retain a single board seat but not on the security committee.
  • The rest of the board will be U.S. investors, possibly notable figures like the Murdochs, all with vetting and national security expertise.

• Challenges in Implementing the Algorithm Transfer

  • Technical difficulties in "retraining" and disentangling the algorithm from ByteDance (the parent company) remain significant.
  • Oracle's experience is seen as an asset, but the operation is described as massive and complex.
  • Chinese government’s approval is still a major hurdle due to tech transfer sensitivities.
  • “Even copying the algorithm… how do you know there’s a picture of some guy in there with a thumb drive, and he’s going to bring the algorithm over… It’s a billion lines of code, Mike. This is going to be quite an operation.” – Joe Mathieu (02:48)

• Political Calculations

  • The move is a blend of national security considerations and political calculus leading into the 2026 elections.
  • Panelists note “how things change when something helps you win an election”—referring to shifting bipartisan attitudes after both Trump and Biden used TikTok in their campaigns. (Jeannie Shan Zaino, 33:31)
  • There is concern over whether the deal truly addresses longstanding national security worries or merely repackages TikTok for U.S. audiences.

• Bipartisan Frustration and Chinese Leverage

  • Skepticism exists about ByteDance’s lingering influence—“If this was a defense company, they wouldn’t allow that to happen… Why would we let TikTok have it?” – Rick Davis (31:45)
  • China’s response and motivation are unclear, raising questions about concessions on both sides.

2. Immigration Reform & H1B Visa Fee Increase

(27:00 – 31:06)

• Trump administration has imposed a $100,000 fee on new H1B visa applicants.
• Panelists debate its likely effect:
  • Supporters argue companies will pay if it grants them access to high-skilled labor, sustaining tech growth.
  • Critics see a “hammer, not a scalpel” approach—arguing it could severely hamper US competitiveness and innovation (Jeannie Shan Zaino, 29:43).
  • “The problem of execution is one we’ve seen over and over again with this administration,” and China is now “welcoming young, skilled talent” as the US closes its doors (33:39).

3. Congress & the Looming Government Shutdown: Rep. Emanuel Cleaver Interview

(06:40 – 15:36)

• Rep. Cleaver stresses Democrats cannot be responsible for a shutdown as the minority party.
  • “I don’t know how the minority can shut something down.” (07:01)
  • He insists trust between parties is highly eroded following presidential rescissions of congressional appropriations.
  • Local impacts: Solar energy projects and shelters lost funding after presidential rescissions, directly affecting constituents (10:09).
• On Missouri redistricting:
  • Cleaver describes the use of Troost Avenue as a district line as a return to de facto segregation and a “nasty reminder of days gone by.” (13:26)
  • A legal and political fight is underway, and the congressman expresses skepticism about state officials’ willingness to reverse course.

4. Clean Energy, Big Tech, and Grid Reform: Gov. Josh Shapiro Interview

(17:42 – 27:00)

• Pennsylvania is leading the charge in demanding a revamped approach to national grid management.
  • Shapiro warns that the regional operator PJM has been too slow and unresponsive, contributing to high costs and hindering investment.
  • Threatens to withdraw PA from PJM if reforms don’t materialize. “Mark my words, if they’re unwilling to do real reform, we’re willing to go it alone.” (20:00)
• PA’s unique role: Second-largest energy producer, successfully attracting massive tech investment (e.g., $20B from Amazon for data centers).
• Frustration with federal policy:
  • Trump’s cuts to clean energy tax credits and new hurdles for wind/solar project permitting threaten “26,000 Pennsylvania jobs.” (24:43)
  • Shapiro denounces the new H1B fees and tough immigration stance as “making it harder for us to compete…making it harder for workers here in Pennsylvania, from our farmlands to our universities.” (26:13)

5. Panel Analysis: The Politics and Risks of the TikTok, H1B, and Tech Regulation Moves

(31:06 – 38:41)

• Panelists Rick Davis and Jeannie Shan Zaino debate:
  • Security vs. political expediency in the TikTok deal.
  • Whether Congress (especially national security hawks) will support the final deal, given evolving politics around TikTok.
  • The longer-term risks of ceding ground on skilled immigration while China moves more aggressively to attract that same talent.
  • “This has long been where the United States has thrived and excelled… reform the visa system, but do not do it so that you diminish our ability to compete long term.” – Jeannie Shan Zaino (33:39)

6. US-EU Trade, Tech, and Antitrust: Interview with Teresa Ribera

(39:58 – 49:43)

• On EU action against Alphabet/Google:
  • Ribera frames the $3B fine as an antitrust issue; emphasizes defense of consumers against monopolies (41:57).
  • Open to assessing Google’s proposed remedies, looking for consistency with US regulators (43:12).
• On Nvidia/OpenAI investment and AI concentration:
  • Ribera is cautious, points to “increasing concentration of power” as a concern in digital markets (46:13).
• On Trump administration’s approach to industrial policy:
  • EU expects fairness for public investments, watches for anti-competitive practices, but for now is “keeping calm” and monitoring.
• On US-EU trade deal:
  • Emphasizes importance of ongoing partnership, but cautions that shifting US rhetoric means the EU is working to strengthen its own capabilities (48:56).

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• “This is still pretty fluid, Joe, but we are getting at least a clearer picture on some of the finer points that are actually important to lawmakers here in Washington.” – Mike Shepard on TikTok deal status (01:17)

• "It’s a billion lines of code, Mike. This is going to be quite an operation." – Joe Mathieu, on the complexity of copying TikTok’s algorithm (02:48)

• "ByteDance will have a seat on the board, but they will not be part of the security committee... they will all be U.S. investors... with cybersecurity and national security vetting and experience." – Mike Shepard (04:01)

• “If the government shut down, it can’t shut down because of Democrats, because we’re in a minority. I don’t know how the minority can shut something down.” – Rep. Emanuel Cleaver (07:01)

• "Tragically and painfully for to me, [parties] don't trust each other and we certainly don't have trust now. After the rescissions that took place..." – Rep. Cleaver on DC gridlock (08:58)

• “Troost became an ugly street because it went into deep decline… It is ugly, an ugly and nasty reminder of days gone by.” – Rep. Cleaver on racial segregation and redistricting (13:26)

• "Mark my words, if they're unwilling to do real reform, we're willing to go it alone." – Gov. Josh Shapiro on PA's grid management (20:00)

• "I wish the president was an all-of-the-above energy present. The president's actions are making it harder for us here in Pennsylvania... putting 26,000 Pennsylvania jobs at risk." – Gov. Shapiro (24:43)

• “There's a difference between Taking a hammer and taking a scalpel. And what they've done is taking a hammer.” – Jeannie Shan Zaino on H1B visa reform (29:43)

• "Everybody knew Oracle would be at the center of it... worries about us, you know, seventh board member appointed by anybody in China or reporting back to anybody in China. If this was a defense company, they wouldn’t allow that to happen... Why would we let TikTok have it?” – Rick Davis (31:45)

• "So whereas the United States is closing the door on potentially critically important skilled workers, China is opening it. And that’s what we mean about long term impact." – Jeannie Shan Zaino (33:39)

• "If this hangs over US Chinese relations, it's going to cause a lot of consternation in the Congress... this doesn't go far enough... China will still have a backdoor to this process and can really start creating some issues." – Rick Davis (35:26)

• "We need to invest in our own. And that's what we are doing as Europeans." – Teresa Ribera, European Commission (48:56)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• TikTok Deal Overview & Oracle Partnership: 00:55 – 05:40
• Congressional Funding & Rep. Cleaver Interview: 06:40 – 15:36
• Energy Policy & Gov. Shapiro Interview: 17:42 – 27:00
• H1B Visa and Tech Talent Debate: 27:00 – 31:06
• Panel Discussion on TikTok Deal, Tech Competition: 31:06 – 38:41
• US-EU Tech Policy & Teresa Ribera Interview: 39:58 – 49:43

Tone & Takeaways

• The conversations are candid, analytical, and policy-focused, with a sense of urgency over national security, economic competitiveness, and the evolving nature of US political and legislative leadership.
• The mood is cautiously skeptical: panelists and interviewees stress uncertainty, complexity, and the sheer magnitude of the policy shifts underway—from digital sovereignty to energy independence and labor mobility.
• The show mixes expertise with accessible explanations, offering listeners a well-rounded view of the decisions reshaping US and global power dynamics.