Balance of Power – Bloomberg

Episode: US Heads Towards Government Shutdown

Date: September 30, 2025
Hosts: Joe Mathieu, Tyler Kendall (in for Kailey Leinz)

Overview

This episode dives into the imminent federal government shutdown, analyzing its political origins, economic impact, and the heated debates over health care subsidies and government funding. Bloomberg's correspondents speak with lawmakers and political analysts, capturing the partisan blame game, internal party strategies, and the public messaging war as time runs out in Washington. Significant portions of the episode also examine an unprecedented speech at Quantico by President Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, with commentary from Bloomberg's political contributors.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. State of Play: The Shutdown Looms

• Outlook: The consensus is that a shutdown after midnight is nearly inevitable.
• Fault Lines: Both parties blame each other for inaction and political posturing, with little willingness to negotiate before the deadline.

(00:54–01:25) Joe Mathieu:
"The conventional wisdom is we shut down after midnight and I'm assuming you don't see a way around it. What comes after the shutdown?"

Congressman Mike Lawler (R-NY-17)

• Criticizes Democrats for supposedly reversing their historical positions on “clean” continuing resolutions (CRs).
• Emphasizes he has voted for every CR to avoid a shutdown, calling the current impasse “foolish” and harmful to vulnerable Americans.
• Accuses Democrats of “pure political posturing.”
  Quote:

  "It is foolish to shut down the government. It is going to create chaos in the markets. It will create chaos for the American people ..." (01:42)

(01:25–03:02)
Lawler asserts Republicans have passed a clean CR—available for Senate passage—and blames Senator Schumer for inaction. He maintains previous Democratic support for such CRs renders their current opposition hypocritical.

2. The Obamacare Tax Credits Debate

(03:02–04:21)

• Negotiations: Lawler suggests ACA (Obamacare) subsidies can be extended via negotiation but not as ransom for shutdown avoidance.
• Perspective: He favors means-testing or phasing out subsidies, but warns the government should stay open as talks proceed.
• Broader Health Policy: Lawler questions ACA's longer-term effectiveness if subsidies are perpetually required, suggesting a bipartisan focus on reducing healthcare and prescription drug costs.

Quote:

"If the Affordable Care Act was supposed to reduce healthcare premiums...why is it not working as intended 15 years later, so much so that you need these subsidies to help people?" (04:50)

3. Economic Impacts & Messaging

(06:15–08:17)

• Macro Concerns: Bloomberg economists project rising unemployment if the shutdown proceeds (to 4.7%).
• Lawler's View: Shutdowns in the past have not tanked markets, but GDP and employment are at risk. He returns to his central message: only a clean CR avoids unnecessary chaos.

4. The Federal Reserve and Data Shutdown

(08:17–09:54)

• Potential Disruption: The shutdown risks delaying key economic data releases, handicapping the Federal Reserve’s decision-making ability.
• Lawler: Decries government shutdowns as partisan gambits with real economic costs. He calls on the Fed to cut rates more aggressively, regardless of data delays.

Quote:

"Shutting the government down is stupid. It doesn't serve a purpose but for a political one." (08:43)

5. Layoffs and Shutdown Tactics

(09:54–11:51)

• Permanent Layoffs Threat: Lawler condemns memo threatening layoffs but acknowledges the President’s authority in executive branch decisions during a shutdown.
• Again, blames Democrats for playing games and failing to pass the CR.

Quote:

"If Democrats are so concerned about what they see as, you know, excessive executive overreach, then they shouldn't be playing games here. Pass the clean CR and keep the government funded..." (10:37)

Congress in Stalemate: Laura Davison Explains the Process

(11:51–15:35)

• Parallel Tracks: Last-ditch votes on competing CRs from both parties are expected, but passage is unlikely. Agencies are deep in shutdown prep.
• Hardball Tactics: Republicans reportedly plan to force daily votes on their version of the CR, pressuring Democrats.
• No Escape Hatch: Despite rumors, Democrats are unlikely to pursue a tiny extension, given lack of trust; if the shutdown occurs, no clear path to reopening.

Quote:

"There will be more press conferences later this afternoon. As the hours tick on to midnight...It is likely that [the CR vote] will fail and then it will hit midnight and the government will shut down." – Laura Davison (12:22)

Major Impact:

• 750,000 workers potentially furloughed.
• Short shutdowns are tolerable, but missing paychecks increases pressure (like the 34-day 2018 shutdown).

The Quantico Moment: Trump, Hegseth, and the Military

President Trump and Secretary Pete Hegseth’s Unprecedented Military Address

(17:37–18:37)

• A high-profile, televised event gathers military brass for a speech prioritizing the “warrior’s ethos” over “woke” policies.

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of War):

• Decries past DOD focus on diversity and inclusion, vows a return to “unity is our strength.”
• Implies recent promotions were based more on identity than merit.

Quote:

"We became the woke department. But not anymore." – Pete Hegseth (18:39)

Political Panel Reaction:

• Rick Davis (Republican Strategist) and Jeannie Shanzano (Democratic Analyst) critique the event as performative and lacking strategic substance.
• Davis: Generals found the event unproductive, “showed up…to see a performance by the Secretary of War. Really not much to it.” (20:06–20:56)
• Shanzano: Criticizes nostalgic and exclusionary rhetoric, ignores realities of military threats (cyber, drones, etc.), and notes the speech was laced with culture war themes. (21:39)

President Trump’s Remarks

(23:23) President Trump:
Awkwardly jokes about the silent audience, referencing consequences for dissent among officers.

Quote:

"If you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future. But you just feel nice and loose, okay? Because we're all on the same team." (23:23)

• Rick Davis underscores the tradition that military officers must not display political responsiveness.
  • "These are people...prohibited from showing any partisan activity in their professionals." (24:12–24:41)

Policy Ramifications of the Trump/Hegseth Speech

• Hegseth's floated plan to cut top military brass by 20% and undermine inspector general oversight is alarming to panelists, especially as moves target women, people of color, and oversight mechanisms.
  • Shanzano: Sends a “chilling” message, especially regarding suggestions of domestic military deployments and reducing inspector general powers. (26:14)

Back to the Shutdown – Democratic Response: Rep. Susan Del Bene

(32:14–43:06)
Interview with Congresswoman Susan Del Bene (D-WA), Chairwoman, DCCC:

Democratic Position & Message

• Republican Inaction: Del Bene claims Democrats are present and ready to work in Washington but that House Republicans have adjourned and refuse to engage.

  • "House Democrats are here. House Republicans aren't even in town...We are here ready to work." (32:14)

• Shutdown Blame: Flips Lawler's argument, noting Republicans control the House, Senate, and White House, yet claim victimhood—all while not being present to vote.

• Obamacare Tax Credits:

  • Urges extension is urgent: premium increases (e.g., 65% in her state, 80,000 at risk of losing coverage) hitting as open enrollment nears.
  • "This isn't something that can wait till later. This is something that's happening right now." (34:35)

Messaging War

• Responds to Trump’s reported focus on reducing prescription drug costs, calling details vague and previous administration efforts damaging to health care.
  • "If you care about health care, you wouldn't have supported legislation they put in place slashing Medicaid..." (38:26)
• Political Stakes: Del Bene frames the Republican approach to health care as politically and morally disastrous, hinting Democrats will exploit the issue in midterms.
  • "Democrats are running 15 points ahead in special elections...and it's a big reason why we'll take back the House next year." (40:28)

Notable Exchange:
Del Bene rebuffs Lawler’s charge that Democrats are posturing, emphasizing Republican absenteeism and control of Congress.

Notable Quotes (with Timestamps & Attribution)

• Rep. Mike Lawler:

  "It is foolish to shut down the government...It is pure political posturing by my Democratic colleagues because they are not in the majority." (01:42)

• Rep. Mike Lawler:

  "If the Affordable Care Act was supposed to reduce healthcare premiums...why is it not working as intended 15 years later?" (04:50)

• Laura Davison:

  "We have two parallel processes...what's happening on Capitol Hill, which is right now a lot of talking at each other, not talking to each other." (12:22)

• Pete Hegseth (Sec. of War):

  "We became the woke department. But not anymore." (18:39)

• President Trump:

  "If you don't like what I'm saying, you can leave the room. Of course, there goes your rank, there goes your future." (23:23)

• Rick Davis (Panelist):

  "These are people...prohibited from showing any partisan activity in their professionals." (24:12)

• Rep. Susan Del Bene:

  "House Democrats are here. House Republicans aren't even in town." (32:14)

• Rep. Susan Del Bene:

  "This isn't something that can wait till later. This is something that's happening right now." (34:35)

• Rep. Susan Del Bene:

  "Democrats are running 15 points ahead in special elections...and it's a big reason why we'll take back the House next year." (40:28)

Additional Key Moments (Timestamps)

• Republicans' Daily Show-Vote Tactic: (13:16–13:34)
• Projection of 750,000 Federal Workers Furloughed: (14:56)
• Drug Pricing Announcement with Pfizer/Trump: (30:19–31:14)
• Management of Military Culture and Officer Reductions: (25:40–26:14)
• Concerns About Domestic Military Deployments: (27:45–28:57)

Conclusion

The episode offers an incisive look at the shutdown crisis, juxtaposing partisan finger-pointing and the mechanics of congressional conflict with real-world economic and social impacts. Tense interviews with both Republican and Democratic lawmakers on critical policy differences, and a revealing analysis of a major military speech, paint a vivid picture of a capital struggling with governance, messaging…and brinkmanship.

For listeners:
This summary captures all significant political, economic, and military discussions while omitting ads, intros, and outros. For developing news and ongoing panel analysis, follow Balance of Power daily on Bloomberg TV & Radio.